John MacDonald: What my gut instinct is telling me about the US presidency

Historic. Knife edge. Too close to call. That’s what they’re all saying about today’s presidential election in the States.

What you never see though, splashed across the screens on CNN and Sky News and BBC, is “gut instinct”.

My gut tells me that it’s going to be Donald Trump. And, this is the great thing about gut instinct, it doesn't really matter whether you’re wrong or right - it’s just how you feel about something.

And I’ve got this feeling that Trump is going to take it out.

And the reason I feel that way can be summed-up in one word: change.

When it comes to elections, people love change. The media loves change. But voters, especially, love change.

And you’ve got to give Trump credit for doing something Kamala Harris hasn’t done - and that is to do a much better job of selling the idea of change. Trump still represents change. Just like he did back in 2016. He still does now.

I think no one would disagree that Joe Biden stepping aside and letting Kamala Harris run for president was a no-brainer, it just took Joe a while to come ‘round to the idea.

But that is where the change started and stopped for the Democrats. Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.

From a distance —and this is the danger when you judge politicians from a distance— but, from where I sit, Harris wins hands down.

But I don’t think she deserves to be the next president. And I am confident that enough Americans will feel the same way and that’s why I think enough of them will give their vote to Donald Trump and he will be the next president.

When she did that first TV debate after she took over as the Democrats candidate from Joe Biden, I watched that and thought she had it in the bag.

When Trump came up with all that nonsense about immigrants eating people’s dogs and cats, I thought she handled all that beautifully. And I thought he had blown it – not just with the dogs and cats stuff but all the rambling.

And the rambling hasn’t stopped, of course. The stuff that comes out of his mouth is nonsense half the time - if not most of the time. But, if there’s one thing going for Trump —certainly in the eyes of American voters— it’s that he oozes change.

You know he’s going to shake things up. You know he’s going to say what he really thinks. You know that he’s all talk about loving Puerto Ricans and all that nonsense about protecting women and making America great again.

It’s all nonsense. It’s all awful. But compare that to Kamala Harris —and put it through the filter of voters loving change— and he wins hands down.

Ever since that TV debate —where she was the obvious stand-out— I’ve found her talk of change hollow, to say the least.

As someone said to me last night when she was on the TV news saying it’s time for change and time to do things differently and it’s time to end the division - someone else who was watching said to me ‘hasn’t she been part of this so-called problem over the past 10 years?’

And, for me, it’s got to the point where I think the majority of American voters will be thinking the same thing.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:06):
You're listening to the Canterbury Morning's podcast with John McDonald
from News Talk ZB.

Speaker 2 (00:13):
Historic knife edge, too close to call. That's what they're
all saying about today's presidential election in the States. What
you won't see those splashed across the screens on CNN
and Sky News and BBC. You won't see the words
gut instinct. You know, they won't be saying, oh, Wolf Blitz,

(00:34):
watch your gut instinct. You know, it's got to all
be informed and based on fact. But that's what I
want to talk to you about today. Your gut instinct
as to whether it's going to be the Republican's Donald
Trump or the Democrats Kamala Harris who gets enough votes
to be the next you as president. My gut tells

(00:54):
me it's going to be Donald Trump. And this is
the great thing about gut instinct, isn't it. It doesn't
really matter whether you're wrong or right. It's just how
you feel about something, what your gut tells you. And
I've got this feeling that Trump is going to take
it out. And the reason I feel that way it
can be summed up on one word change. You know,

(01:18):
when it comes to elections, people love change. The media
loves change, but voters especially love change. And even if
you think Trump's a nutbar, like I do, I think
he's a nutbar Despite all that, You've got to give
him credit, and I've got to give him credit for

(01:39):
doing something Kamala Harris hasn't done, and that is he
has done a much better job of selling the idea
of change. Trump represents change he did in twenty sixteen,
still does now now I think no one would disagree
that Joe Biden stepping aside and letting Kamala Harris run

(01:59):
for president was a no brainer. And it took Joe
a while to come around to it, didn't it, But
eventually he did. But that is where the change started
and stopped for the Democrats. It was a case of
meet the new boss, same as the old boss, and
looking at it from a distance. And this is the
This is the danger, isn't it when you judge politicians

(02:21):
from a distance? Because what here in New Zealand, a
lot of us we thought Barack Obama was the bee's knees,
but people in the States weren't quite so in love
with them. Just Cindor A. Durne is another good example
she'd run her course here in New Zealand and in
the popularity says, but people around the world still love
her apparently, so chances are it's the same with Kamala Harris.

(02:42):
But from where I sit, if her and Trump are
the two best candidates a country the size of America
can come up with, then if they're the two, she
wends hands down on paper. But I don't think she
deserves to be the next president. And I'm confident that
enough Americans will feel the same way. And that's why
I think enough of them will give their vote to

(03:02):
day to Donald Trump, and he will be the next president.
You know, when she did that first TV debate after
she took over as a Democrat candidate from Joe Biden.
I watched that and I thought she had it in
the bag at that point. When Trump came up with
all that nonsense about immigrants eating people's dogs and cats,
I thought, I thought she had handled it beautifully. I
thought he'd blown it. And it wasn't just with the

(03:25):
dogs and cats stuff, but all the rambling and the
rambling hasn't stopped. The stuff that comes out of his
mouth is nonsense half the time, if not most of
the time. But if there's one thing going for Trump,
certainly in the eyes of American voters, is that he
oozes that key thing I mentioned earlier. Change. You know,

(03:47):
he's going to shake things up. You know, he's going
to say what he really thinks. You know, he's all talk,
you know, despite the fact, you know, he's all talk
about loving Porto Ricans and all that nonsense about protecting
women and making America great again. It's all nonsense. It's
all awful. But compare that to Kamala Harris and put
it through that filter of voters loving change, he wins

(04:10):
hands down. Ever since that TV debate, where as I said,
she was the obvious standout, Ever since then, I've found
her talk of change and her promise of change hollow,
to say the least. Someone said to me last night
when she was on the TV news as the Koma Harris,
when she was on the TV news saying it's time

(04:30):
to change and time to do things differently, and it's
time to end the division. Or someone else there was
watching said to me, hasn't she been part of this
so called problem over the past ten years? And he said,
for me, it's got to the point where I think
the majority of American voters will be thinking exactly the
same thing. And I think the majority of American voters

(04:52):
will love the idea of Trump putting American first. And
while I don't like it, my gut instinct tells me
that he will be the next president of the United States.

Speaker 1 (05:03):
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