John MacDonald: Australia might have AUKUS-buyer's remorse

Donald Trump won’t be too happy with Helen Clark right now, because she’s saying she doesn't want New Zealand to be an ally of the United States ever again.  

I’m with her on that one – while Trump is president, anyway.   

I’m also with Defence Minister Judith Collins who isn’t saying anything about Trump doing a review of the AUKUS military alliance with Australia and the UK, to make sure that it’s a fair deal for America.  

I think Judith Collins going all quiet about this cloud over AUKUS is the approach we should be taking more broadly, as well. And New Zealand should be more like Switzerland and keep pretty much every country at arm's length.  

As Helen Clark is saying, if you’re an ally, you can get dragged into all sorts of things you shouldn’t. Whereas, if you’re a “friend”, you can keep your head down, treat every country pretty much equally, and stay out of international dramas you don’t need to be involved with.   

I heard former defence minister Wayne Mapp saying that the fact Trump has said this AUKUS review will be done and dusted in 30 days, shows that it’s unlikely that the U.S. is about to pull out.  

Tell that to Dr Emma Shortis —who is a senior researcher in international affairs at the Australia Institute— who is pointing out that the submarine part of the AUKUS deal includes a “get-out clause” for the United States.  

She reckons Trump is about to use that clause – not that she’s too upset about it. She’s saying today that AUKUS is "a disaster" for Australia and only ties Aussie ever closer to “an increasingly volatile and aggressive america”.  

And, with respect to Wayne Mapp, I’m going to listen to this expert from Australia.  

Understandably it’s caused a fuss in Australia, because they’re due to get a few nuclear subs from America as part of all this. Three second-hand submarines for $368 billion.  

On this side of the Tasman though, the Government is keeping shtum, with Defence Minister Judith Collins not wanting to get dragged into it. Which makes sense, because —at the moment— we’ve got nothing to do with AUKUS.  

The Government’s been making noises recently about doing a bit of tyre-kicking and seeing whether we might get involved at a lower level. “Pillar 2” is what they call it.  

But there’s nothing coming from the Government about Donald Trump running his eye over AUKUS to check that America's getting the best deal. Former Prime Minister Helen Clark isn’t holding back though.  

She says: "I would not want to see us back in the position where New Zealand is expected to spend a whole lot more money on defence; expected to follow the US into whatever its strategic venture is. I'm old enough to remember the Vietnam War and New Zealand going into that for not a good reason at all and walking out the other end with Kiwis dying on the battlefield for no good reason. I don't want to see us ever in that position again."  

I’m with her on that one.   

Australia’s possibly feeling that way too, given that it signed up to the AUKUS agreement when Joe Biden was president. And, aside from wanting to get the submarines, and aside from the fact that it’s already ploughed $800 million into AUKUS, it might still be having a bit of buyer’s remorse given Trump’s unpredictability. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:06):
You're listening to the Canterbury Mornings podcast with John McDonald
from News Talk ZB.

Speaker 2 (00:12):
I can guarantee one thing. I can guarantee one thing.
Donald Trump won't be too happy with Helen Clark right now,
because she's saying this morning that she never wants New
Zealand to be an ally of the United States ever. Again.
I'm with her on that one as well. I'll explain.

(00:34):
I'm also with Defense Minister Judith Collins, who, unlike Helen Clark,
isn't saying anything about Trump doing a review of the
UCUS military alliance with Australia and the UK. This is
to make sure it's a fair deal for America, all
part of his America first of view. So as looking
at it, so right, are we the ones getting the

(00:55):
best deal out of this? That's what he's doing. And
I think Judith Collin's going all quiet about this. Cloud
over Orcus is the approach we should be taking. More
oddly as well, I think New Zealand want to run
past you. I think New Zealand should be more like
Switzerland and keep pretty much every country at arm's length,

(01:18):
especially the United States. Right now, because as Halen Clark
is saying, and I'll play you a bit of what
she said earlier this morning. Shortly she's saying that if
you're an ally, this is what it comes down to her.
If you're an ally, you can get dragged into all
sorts of things that you shouldn't whereas if you're a friend,
you can keep your head down, you can treat every

(01:40):
country pretty much equally, and you can stay out of
international dramas you don't need to be involved with. Now, look,
I heard former Defense minster Wayne Mapp this morning saying
the fact that Trump has said that this Orchestra review
will be done and dusted in thirty days, Wayne Map
says that shows that it's unlikely that the US is

(02:00):
about to pull out. But tell that to doctor Emma Shortest,
who she she's a senior researcher in international affairs at
the Australia Institute, and she's writing in the Sydney Morning
Herald this morning pointing out that the submarine part of
the deal includes a get out clause for the United

(02:21):
United States, and she reckons Trump is about to use
that clause, not that she's too upset about it. She's
saying today that Aucus is a disaster for Australia. And
this is what Helen Clark was getting at UCAS is
a disaster for Australia. It only ties Australia ever closer
to quote an increasingly volatile and aggressive America end of quote.

(02:46):
So with respect to Wayne Mapp, I'm going to listen
to this expert from Australia and what she's saying today. Understandably,
this whole thing's caused a bit of antsiness and caused
a bit of a fuss in Australia because they d
you to get a few nuclear subs from America as
part of this deal, three secondhand submarines for three hundred
sixty eight billion dollars. But as I said on the

(03:10):
side of the Tasman, the government is keeping stum with
Defense Minister Judith Colin's not wanting to get dragged into it,
which makes sense because at the moment we've got nothing
to do with AUCUST. I mean, the government's been making
noises recently, hasn't it about doing a bit of tire
kicking and seeing whether we might want to get involved
at a lower level. Pillar two is what they call it.

(03:31):
But there's nothing coming from the government about Donald Trump
running his eye over Aucus to check that America is
getting the best deal. As I say, though, former Prime
Minister Helen Clark isn't holding back, and here's a bit
of what she had to say to Ryan on early
edition this morning.

Speaker 3 (03:45):
I would not want to see us back in the
position where New Zealand is expected to spend a whole
lot more money on defense, expected to follow the US
into whatever its strategic adventures. And I'm old enough to
remember the Vietnam War in New Zealand going into that
for not good reason at all, and limping out the
other end with Kiwis who died on the battle for

(04:06):
no good reason. I don't want to see us ever
in that position again.

Speaker 2 (04:10):
I'm with her on that one, one hundred percent. And
Australia is possibly feeling that way too, don't you think,
given that it's signed up to the Aucas Agreement when
Joe Biden was president, and aside from wanting to get
the submarines and a siding, aside from the fact that
it's already plowed eight hundred million dollars into Orcus, I
reckon it still might be having a bit of buyer's remorse.

(04:31):
Given Trump's unpredictability, and I'm also with Judith Collins not
wanting to get dragged into this particular issue because why
it doesn't affect us. In fact, I would like to
see New Zealand be a bit more Switzerland on it,
be a bit more neutral, mind its own business more
and focus on the things that affect us, and I
certainly don't want to see us dragged into all sorts

(04:52):
of things by the guy running America at the moment.

Speaker 1 (04:56):
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