John MacDonald: Gang numbers are up - so what next?

The gangs were right, the Government was wrong.  

That’s one way to interpret the news that, for the first time, the number of people on the national gang list is higher than 10,000.  

The gangs were right. Because they said right from the outset that the Government could do what it wants but they will never go away.  

And the numbers don’t lie, do they?  

At the time of the 2023 election, there were 9,270 people on the national gang list. Now there are 10,009 – an increase of more than 700.  

Which is why, as well as saying the gangs were right, you could also say that the Government was wrong. I think it’s too early, but I think we need to change our expectations a little bit. Which I’ll come back to.  

Labour is crowing, of course. But before Ginny Andersen and Chris Hipkins get too carried away, they need to remember that when Labour came to power in 2017 there were 5,343 people on the gang list and by the time the 2023 election came around, that had increased by nearly 4,000.  

So Police Minister Mark Mitchell —who has been the face of the gang patch ban and all of the other anti-gang initiatives— is correct when he says that the numbers aren’t increasing as fast as they were.   

And he says that slower rate of growth is proof that the Government's tough-on-crime policies are working. The Prime Minister is backing that up, saying the Government is "smashing the gangs".  

He’s saying: "I'm proud of the progress that we've made. Putting the gang patches ban in place – many people said that couldn't be done."  

Assistant police commissioner Paul Basham is singing from the same songsheet. Saying that because the Government has given the police more power and resources, they’ve got a better handle on gang numbers and illegal gang activity.  

Nevertheless, with numbers rising, what should happen next?  

Do we accept that we’re never going to stop gang numbers growing? Do we go harder?  Or do we give the Government more time for its crackdown to work?   

I’m prepared to give the Government a little bit more time. But I think we also need to adjust our expectations and forget about any idea of gang numbers falling dramatically. 

Because there will always be gangs. But if the police have a better handle on what they’re doing and —because of that— those of us not involved in gangs feel safer, then that’s a good outcome in my book.  

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:06):
You're listening to the Canterbury Mornings podcast with John McDonald
from News Talk ZB.

Speaker 2 (00:12):
The gangs were right, the government was wrong. The gangs
were right, the government was wrong. That's one way to
interpret the news today that for the first time the
number of people on the National Gang Register is higher
than ten thousand. The gangs were right because they said
from the outset that the government could do what it wants,

(00:33):
do what the hell you want, but they will never
go away. And the numbers. Numbers don't lie, do they.
At the time of the twenty twenty three election, there
were nine two hundred and seventy people on the National
Gang List. Now there are ten thousand and nine. What's
that Add that up an increase of more than seven hundred,

(00:56):
which is why, as well as saying the gangs were right,
you could also say the government was wrong. Now, look,
I think the gangs were right for sure, and I
think it's too early to say that the government was wrong.
I'll give them a little bit more time. But I
also think we need to change our expectations a little bit.

(01:17):
I'll explain more on that shortly. Labor of course is crowing,
absolutely crowing. But before Ginny Anderson and Chris Hipkins get
too carried away with themselves. They need to remember this.
When they came to power in twenty seventeen, there were
three hundred and forty three people on the gang list
and by the time the twenty twenty three election came around,

(01:37):
by the time they were turfed out, that had increased
by nearly four thousand. So when you consider it that way,
Policemanister Mark Mitchell, her of course is the he's been
the face of the gang patch ban and all of
the other anti gang initiatives. When you think the numbers
through is correct, doesn't he When he says that the increase,

(01:59):
this lattest increase is highly concerning, but also that the
numbers aren't growing as fast as they were a spot
on there, and he says that that slower rate of
growth is proof that his government's tough on crime policies
are working because gang numbers are growing at a slower
rate than what they were and the Prime Minister he's

(02:21):
backing his man to the hilt. He's saying today the
government is quote smashing the gangs. As an aside, By
the way, you might be interested in this, there are
ten thousand and nine gang members or people on the
gang list and there are two hundred and twenty two
police officers that the police still outnumber the gangs by
two hundred and thirteen. Back to the Prime Minister, though,

(02:43):
he's saying, quote, I'm proud of the progress that we've
made put in the gang patches banned in place. He said,
many people said that couldn't be done. And Paul Basham
was the Assistant Police Commissioner. He spoke to Mike a
couple of hours ago and he was singing from the
same song sheet as the Police Minister and the Prime Minister.

Speaker 3 (03:00):
We have the ambition for our communities to be safe
and feel safe. I think that gangly displays and that
dropped last year has had a significant impact out there
in terms of community feelings of safety, and the feedback
that we're getting is very positive in that regard good.
So it's met the mark if you like openly well
me and met the mark in terms of the government's

(03:21):
and tension in the way that we're able to execure it,
and we're getting really good feedback in terms of feelings
of community safety as a consequence. Now.

Speaker 2 (03:29):
Paul basher Mee also said he's the existent commissioner. He
also said that because the government has given the police
small powers and resources, he reckons they've got a better
handle on gang numbers and the illegal gang activity. But
let's bring in criminologist Jared Gilbert. He's a local guy
and you've always got to listen to him. He's saying
today that reduced patch visibility because of the patch ban.

(03:52):
He's saying it could actually mean that the official number
that we've got today is less than what it is
in reality. He's saying that there could be more than
ten thousand and nine. He says, quite we can't identify
the gangs anymore because insignia has been banned, So perversely
we might see numbers come down on this list. It's

(04:14):
not reflective of anything that's happening on the street. Is
just that the gangs are more invisible. The question now, though,
what happens next.

Speaker 1 (04:25):
For more from Caterbory Mornings with John McDonald, listen live
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