Jack Tame: It's hard to see how Trump's tariffs will work out how he says

Trump’s been right before.   

There are occasions when he’s come out with something seemingly crazy —totally bananas— earning him all the ire and ridicule of the expert class and the media, only to maybe be proven right over time. 

The one that springs to mind is the travel ban with China, shortly after Covid-19 took off. One minute he was being rinsed for it, the next, everyone had a travel ban with China. 

That being said, it is so hard to see how his extraordinary move this week is going to work out as he says it will.   

Overnight, China has reacted to the tariff plan and share markets around the world have continued to shed trillions of dollars in value. Today is not the day for checking your KiwiSaver balance! But even as the US Federal Reserve says America should expect slower economic growth and higher inflation, the White House insists his plan is working.  

One of the curious things about this term is how little he’s seemed to care about the stock market. In his first term as President, anything that hurt share prices elicited an immediate backdown, and Trump constantly bragged about how he had the strongest economy ever. It’s going to be extremely difficult to make that argument when almost everything costs more.  

Still, if we’ve learnt anything from the past it shouldn’t be that sometimes Trump is right to buck conventional wisdom, it’s that in the absurd polarised world we live in, personality and teams are more important than facts. This applies to many of his opponents as well – people on the absolute opposite end of the political spectrum. But Trump’s keenest cheerleaders are so slavishly loyal, many refuse to even acknowledge the most obvious objective failings.  

So his team accidentally messaged war plans to a journalist? Well, we’ll just insist they weren’t classified. So he’s slapped tariffs on uninhabited sub-Antarctic islands? Of course he has! Those penguins have been getting away with murder! He’s kicked off a global trade war that’ll leave a majority of us worse off? Fantastic. All part of the genius.   

It’s a fool’s game to try and predict Donald Trump’s next move but for the little it’s worth, my best guess is that none of these tariffs are set in stone. Countries are going to try and placate him. Companies in the US are going to try and negotiate their own little carve-outs. Trump’s gonna absolutely love picking favourites, but his approach will lurch all over the place, defined only by spur-of-the-moment whims and incoherence.   

Regardless of what happens, he will claim success. His supporters will agree, but the global order looks that much more unstable.  

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:07):
You're listening to the Saturday Morning with Jack Team podcast
from News Talks at b.

Speaker 2 (00:12):
Well, let's be honest, Donald Trump has been right before.
There are occasions where he's come out with something seemingly crazy,
something totally bananas, earning him all the ire and ridicule
of the expert class and the media, only to maybe
be proven right over time. The one that springs to

(00:35):
mind is the travel band with China shortly after COVID
nineteen took off. One minute he was being rinsed for it.
The next well, everyone had a travel band with China.
That being said, it is so hard to see how
his extraordinary move this week is going to work out
as he says it will. Overnight. China has reacted to

(00:58):
Trump's tariff plan with Retalia tree tariffs. Yes, the trade
war has kicked off. Sheer markets around the world. World
have continued to shed trillions of dollars in value. That's
trillions with a tr trillions in value, thousands of billions
of dollars. Today is not the day for checking your

(01:18):
key we saver balance. I can assure you of that.
But even as the US Federal Reserve says America should
expect slower economic growth and higher inflation. The White House
insists Donald Trump's plan is working. One of the curious
things about this term as president is how little Trump
has seemed to care about the stock market. Remember his

(01:40):
first term as president, Anything that hurt share prices elicited
an immediate backdown, and Trump constantly bragged about how he
had the strongest economy. Ever, it just feels like it's
going to be extremely difficult to make that argument when
everything or almost everything, costs more. Still, if we've learned

(02:03):
anything from the past, it shouldn't be that sometimes Trump
is right to buck conventional wisdom. If we've learned anything
it's that in the absurd, polarized world we now live in,
personality and teams are much more important than facts. This
applies to many of Trump's opponents as well, people on
the absolute opposite end of the political spectrum, such as

(02:26):
the nature of polarization. We're always right, we're never wrong,
and Trump's keenest cheer leaders are so slavishly loyal many
refuse to even acknowledge the most obvious objective failings. So
his team accidentally messaged war plans to a journalist. Well,

(02:48):
we'll just insist they weren't classified. So he's slapped tariffs
on uninhabited sub Antarctic islands. Of course he has. Those
penguins have been getting away with murder, you know, murder
for decades now. So he's kicked off a global trade
war that'll leave the majority of US worst off. Fantastic,

(03:09):
all part of the genius. It's a full game to
try and predict Donald Trump's next move, But for the
little it's worth. My best guess, and it is just
that a guess is that none of these tariffs are
set in stone. Countries are going to try and plicate him.
Companies in the US are going to try and negotiate

(03:31):
their own little carve outs. If you're a company that
relies on bringing in some mineral from China and you
need that to develop your industry, you're going to go
and knock on the door at Pennsylvania Avenue and ask
Donald Trump for a little bit of special treatment. And
Donald Trump is going to absolutely love picking favorites. That

(03:54):
being said, his approach will lurch all over the place,
defined only by spur of the moment, whims and incoherence.
Regardless of what happens, Trump will claim success his supporters
will agree, and the global order looks that much more unstable.

Speaker 1 (04:13):
For more from Saturday Morning with Jack Tame, listen live
to News Talks at B from nine am Saturday, or
follow the podcast on iHeartRadio