Special votes, as I'm sure you know, are usually good for the left and National has said it expects to lose one or two seats from the election night count.
If it was two, and even if the overhang goes, the maths is undeniable. It's a 120 seat Parliament, but that one-seat majority for the Nats and ACT is gone.
And we all know what that means.
I think Winston's petulant display in Wellington right after the election told us a lot about the way the new coalition is being drawn together.
My read of it, is that Mr Peters had been well and truly put in his place over the weekend.
I suspect the rules of engagement were spelled out very clearly, and he knows he's not going to be wearing the pants in any future relationship.
Not to start with, anyway.
The other thing to bear in mind, and unless you're actually doing the counting there's no way of telling, is whether the specials will favour the left as much as some people think.
There's a school of thought that says people outside the country, and in particular people who were locked out of the country during COVID, might have been less inclined to continue their support for the previous administration.
Maybe there'll be further punishment to come.
Maybe the Nats and ACT will have the numbers and the confidence to press on without New Zealand First.
What a relief that would be.
So, why have a got a good feeling about this?
Luxon. That's why.
He's used to being in charge, and maybe that's why it took him time to find his feet as a political leader, where your authority and decision-making are questioned day after day, and even the people who pretend to be your mates are carrying sharp knives around.
I believe what we've seen —and what haven't seen— in the past couple of weeks are a demonstration of how things are going to be done.
It's going to be business-like and people who want to be on board are going to have to respect who's boss.
Bring it on.
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