Geoffrey Miller: International Relations Expert on Chinese Premier Li Qiang's visit to New Zealand

It's expected China will try to sweeten the pot for New Zealand. 

Chinese Premier Li Qiang will arrive in Wellington this week, the first such visit since 2017. 

International relations expert Geoffrey Miller told Mike Hosking that expects he'll want to cover business, education, and likely New Zealand's position on AUKUS. 

He says tempting offers will likely be made to the Prime Minister. 

Miller says an upgraded free trade agreement or wider visa access for Kiwis are potentially on the table. 

Christopher Luxon will then lead a delegation to Japan on Sunday. 

LISTEN ABOVE 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:03):
Our relationship with China is going to get another close
inspection this week with the arrival of the Chinese premier,
first official visit since twenty seventeen. Jeffrey Miller, international Relations expert,
back with this, Jeffrey, very good morning to you.

Speaker 2 (00:14):
Good morning Mane.

Speaker 1 (00:15):
He's also sweeping through Australia. So this is a region
in the spotlight as far as the Chinese are concerned.

Speaker 2 (00:22):
Indeed, and it's massive, as you said, the first visit
by a Chinese premier to New Zealand since twenty seventeen,
that's a very long time and it follows Wang Yi's
visit back in March the Chinese Foreign Minister. So certainly
Australia is now being courted again by China after all
their troubles. But New Zealand is getting in first. He's

(00:42):
coming to New Zealand first, Lee Chang, and.

Speaker 1 (00:44):
He's bringing a least to the Australian leag The journey
was a large business delegation. Is it about business or
is it about the geopolitics and things like August?

Speaker 2 (00:53):
Well, outwardly it's about business. And in the Chinese political system,
the Premiere is largely responsible for handling the economy. But
I think behind the scenes there's going to be a
lot of talk about AUCUST. That certainly wasn't mentioned in
Christopher Luxeen's statement yesterday, But it's very clear that China
is not happy with the idea of New Zealand joining UCUS,
and it's got a chance to put its case to
New Zealand because no decisions, final decisions have been made here.

(01:16):
So I think the behind closed doors will be a
lot of talk about August.

Speaker 1 (01:19):
And can they justifiably New Zealand that is, say that
we don't know what it is Pillar two and therefore
we don't know what we're going to do, and that's
a decent enough answer for the Chinese or not.

Speaker 2 (01:30):
Yes, I mean that's been the line that New Zealand
has been using what for the past year or more,
And I guess this still carries some way because New
Zealand settle hasn't been officially invited to join. At the
same time, I think China's smart enough to know that
there are discussions ongoing between New Zealand and the other
AUCUST members at some level, and they're very keen to

(01:51):
point out all the good reasons why New Zealand should
not join, and trying to point out just how important
this relationship with China has. Remember it is New Zealand's
biggest training partner by far. There's a lot on the line,
and they might often New Zealand some further carrots, you know,
this talk of upgrading the free trade agreement a little
bit further to include services to a greater degree than
is currently the case. Visa access could also be on

(02:13):
the table. China offers visa free access to around a
dozen countries, does not include New Zealand yet, but perhaps
New Zealand could be brought into the fold. There will
be the first five bys country if that happened.

Speaker 1 (02:24):
All those issues that the Americans of the Europeans worry
about EV's and government intervention in the marketplace and tariffs
and stuff like that, do we ignore all of that?

Speaker 2 (02:32):
I don't think we ignore all of that. I think
if you look at last week, Tom McLay was off
signing agreements for the Indo Pacific Economic Framework, which is
very much the US economic vehicle for counter China. So
I think it ef factors into the discussions, and I
don't think China is probably that happy that New Zealand's
signed up to the IPEF as it's called. You know,
I think all of these issues will be on the

(02:54):
table when Lee Chang, the Chinese premier, is here this week.

Speaker 1 (02:57):
Okay, the CPTPP, the Chinese want in. Allegedly we're able
to in some way, shape or form if we wanted
to help. Is any of that true? And can China
get into a deal like that?

Speaker 2 (03:09):
Well, New Zealand formally is I guess the depository for
the CPTPP because we started the whole arrangement way back when.
And you know, I think New Zealand's position formally is
you know, China meets all the tests. You know, there's
no reason why it couldn't be brought into the CPS
Thank you.

Speaker 1 (03:28):
Still if it meets its look.

Speaker 2 (03:30):
It's a long shot, isn't it Because of the other
CPTPP members here, and you know, trade has become increasingly politicized,
and you know, it's it seems unlikely that China would
ever be allowed into this group.

Speaker 1 (03:45):
Okay, Jeffrey, good to catch up with you. As always,
appreciate your expertise. Jeffrey Miller, international relations expert.

Speaker 2 (03:51):
For more from News Talks b listen live on air
or online, and keep our shows with you wherever you
go with our podcast on iHeartRadio