Leon Goldsmith: Middle East politics expert on the effects of the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh

A Middle East politics expert says the assassination of a Hamas political leader will have reverberating effects.  

Iran's vowing to avenge the killing of Ismail Haniyeh after his reported death in an air strike in Tehran. 

It's declared three days of mourning and is promising what it calls "harsh punishment" against Israel. 

It follows an Israeli strike on a Hezbollah commander in Lebanon.  

Otago University's Leon Goldsmith told Ryan Bridge it takes a ceasefire deal off the table for now.  

He says Israel's probably sending a strong message that no one is safe with the two leaders killed inside one day. 

LISTEN ABOVE 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Himmas's leader Ismael Hanair has been assassinated inside Tehran in
Iran it's the capital. No one has claimed responsibility yet,
but analysts on the Iranian state television have placed the
blame squarely with Israel for the attack. Israel doesn't normally
talk about any of its offensives overseas, so in what
direction could this take the conflict from here? The Otago

(00:21):
University Senior lecturer for Middle Eastern and Comparative Politics as
doctor Leon Goldsmith. First of all, what do you think
this is going to do? Because this leader Ismael Hnair
was obviously on the diplomatic offensive to try and get
a cease fire. Does this mean a ceasefire is further
out of reach?

Speaker 2 (00:38):
Yeah? I think this probably takes the S five deal
off the table for now, definitely, for moves that possibility
are But I think what it was is that Israel
is probably sending a very strong message that none are safe.
I think we've had the isbela number two in Hamas,
number one killed inside one day in the capital Ofbanon

(01:00):
and iranis it's fairly significant and it could cause a
major reverberations.

Speaker 1 (01:07):
Yeah, because it's not in the case of Lebanon. It
they're not just heading you know, the southern border. They've
actually they've actually struck them in be I mean they're
heading to the capitals here, aren't.

Speaker 2 (01:16):
They, which is precisely what the US asked them not
to do.

Speaker 1 (01:20):
So do you in some ways do we take heart
from the fact that they are quite limited in scope?

Speaker 2 (01:31):
Well, I think what these are very strategic, targeted assassinations
of people that the Israelis believe are responsible for October
seven and another attacks against Israel. So this is their
policy for some time of disproportionate retaliation against individuals. So
Asma Honey is the most senior person to be targeted

(01:53):
and assassinate, assassinated since October seven, and until that was
until yesterday. Previously it would have been for a shaka
who was killed in Beirut, So I think it's I
think it may have just also been timing here because
normally Ismahanir would have been in Doha, which would have

(02:14):
been somewhere with Israel would never touch him. The fact
that he happened to be in Tehran for the inauguration
of the Revenue President gave Israelis an opportunity to hit him.

Speaker 1 (02:26):
Right your assessment basically sees far off the table for
now as a result of this, what about risk of
a wider conflict?

Speaker 2 (02:34):
What is that?

Speaker 1 (02:34):
What does it take before we take over into that territory.

Speaker 2 (02:39):
Well, I think there's going to be some very serious
conversations happening in Tehran right now and in Beyrout. So
I think on one hand, there's a lot of analysts
also suggesting that there is there's no way that Israel
can not retaliate in some way, either via his Baalah
through southern Elevenine also trying to ramp up attacks via

(03:03):
Alhofi drones, rockets from Yemen. Also, as we've already seen
previously in April, direct missile launchers from Iran to Israel,
which we'll have you know, a high degree of risk
of regional escalation. We also have US forces approaching the

(03:23):
Lebanese coast warships again, so the pieces are looking quite
concerning here. What we may have seen is what we
probably saw the first phase of in April, is that
the Israelis are trying to perhaps draw the US into
a direct confrontation with Iran, which I think is something

(03:46):
reconcerning and something that the Iranians are probably quite key
not to be drawn into that trap.

Speaker 1 (03:52):
Yeah, but it's certainly on the table, isn't it. Thank
you very much for analysis, doctor Leon Goldsmith, Otago University,
Senior Lecturer for Middle Eastern and Comparative Politics, with us
there saying that that cease fire pretty much off the
table after this assassination. And don't forget that we have
skin in the game here too. We've got to defense
force members deployed to protect that maritime mute a route,

(04:16):
i should say, from the in the Red Sea, from
the Hootie Rebels.

Speaker 2 (04:20):
For more from News Talk SEDB, listen live on air
or online, and

Speaker 1 (04:24):
Keep our shows with you wherever you go with our
podcasts on IR Radio