August 5, 2024 • 36 mins
On the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast for Tuesday 6th August 2024, more changes are on the way for our education system, but what's the thinking behind the policy decisions? NZ Initiative's Dr Michael Johnston joins Ryan to discuss.
The U.S. Presidential Election is less than 100 days out, and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris is expected to announce her running mate by tomorrow. Ryan speaks to Allan Lichtman who has correctly predicted almost every election since 1982.
St John union staff have announced further strike action later this month, including a "withdrawal of labour".
Australia has raised their terror threat level for the first time in a decade. We cross to Australia correspondent Donna Demaio.
Get the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast every weekday on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
The issues, the interview and the inside. Ryan Bridge new
for twenty twenty four on the early edition with Smith City,
New Zealand's furniture beds and a play a store. News
Talk sa'd be.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
Good morning, Tuesday, the sixth of August. Deal with me,
Ryan Bridge on News Talk sai'd be just gone six
after five. Great to have your company this morning. Are
the global stock markets having a panic attack? They have
been while we've been sleeping. Shares a tumbling left, right
and center. Why some are saying dying panic. Calm down,
it's a false alarm. Also this morning, the butcher gets
(00:37):
his bacon, Finn butcher has one gold. Who knew that
was going to happen?
Speaker 3 (00:41):
Not me.
Speaker 2 (00:42):
We'll talk more about that shortly. Plus let's call it
what it is, an education crisis. Given the data we
had yesterday plus new NCA figures, We're going to ask
the New Zealand Initiative for their opinion on this, not
the unions, the New Zealand Initiative for their opinion US
before six it is seven after five the agenda Tuesday
(01:06):
to sixth of August. Stock markets in the US have
basically had a freak out overnight. The Dale Jones has
dropped almost at one thousand points, with every DAL stock
in the red now, the S and P five hundred
down four point one on early trading, the Nasdaq down
six point three. Some of those losses have now been
called back. It follows global concern about a slowing US economy.
(01:26):
Job data from the States on Friday show to rise
and unemployment to four point three percent. Bangladesh's Prime Minister,
Sheikh Hasina, has resigned and fled the country following weeks
of anti government protests. Protesters have now stormed her official
residents celebrating her resignation. Three hundred people have died in
(01:57):
the clashes between protesters and police, which arted peacefully in June.
So what happens now, we'll look at that soon. The
Meat Industry Associations revealed that New Zealand exported nine hundred
and fourteen million dollars worth of red meat in June.
It's nearly a billion bucks. The US is once again
leading the pack is our key exports, jumping fourteen percent
(02:18):
to three hundred and three million dollars. Chief executive Serma
Karapever says global economic conditions seem to be improving with
food inflation falling.
Speaker 4 (02:28):
We are hopeful that all that continues and as a result,
we see more.
Speaker 5 (02:33):
Demand or sustained demands than all those countries.
Speaker 1 (02:37):
The first Word on the News of the Day Early
edition with Ryan Bridge and Smith City, New Zealand's Furniture
Beds and a Playing Store.
Speaker 2 (02:46):
News Talk d be in a few minutes. We're going
to talk to the presidential historian who has correctly predicted
every single US presidential election since the nineteen eighties, bar
Al Gore in two thousand. So who's going to win
the next year's election? I suppose we'll find out in
a few minutes. Hey, congratulations Finn Butcher. He's taken gold
(03:06):
in the men's canoe slalom cross. He led the field
basically from the start to the finish. It was a
flawless performance. If you're wondering exactly what that is. Four paddlers,
huge drop into whitewater. They kayak down the water. There
are gates, they go round the gates, they go in
(03:27):
the gates. They do a little you know, flip, what
do they call that? You go under the water and
flip around. They do a roll. That's it, thanks Leo.
They do a role and then they finish. It's very
over in a second before you know it. Have a listen.
Speaker 6 (03:45):
It's Clark makes and roaches. He's around gate five. He
has to go across the grain here Butcher through gate six.
Two gates to go through seven, the all important upstream
gates for Finn. Butcher uses to navigate it shafely and
the gold medal is his. Finn Butcher is an Olympic champion.
Speaker 2 (04:13):
That was very excited. So this is a new event
of the Olympics. So he is the first champion in
this event and his first Olympic Games as well, which
is very cool. Now the women's track cycling is happening.
We are in contention. I am hearing potentially for a medal,
So we'll bring you that live as it happens here
(04:34):
on news Talk, said B. It has just gone ten
after five. Coming up next, Who's going to win the
US Presidential Election?
Speaker 1 (04:42):
On your radio and online on iHeartRadio Early edition with
Ryan Bridge and Smith City, New Zealand's Furniture, Beds and
a playing Store.
Speaker 2 (04:51):
News Talk said B. Thirteen after five, News Talk said B, Hey,
there are unconfirmed reports this morning that a Kiwi helicopter
pilot has been killed in Harpour in Indonesia. This is
the same place where the other Kiwi, Philip Mertons, who
was piloting a fixed wing aircraft, was taken a hostage
and so he's still been held captive there. That was
(05:12):
eighteen months ago. Apparently it's the same group they think
who kidnapped Philip Mertens, who was responsible for killing this
Keiwi helicopter pilot. This is an unconfirmed report from local
police at this stage. We'll keep you up to date
with that throughout the morning. Right to the United States
we Go. Karmena Harris is set to announce her vice
presidential pick tomorrow, ahead of their first public appearance together
(05:36):
in Pennsylvania on Thursday. Presidential historian Alan Lickman has correctly
predicted almost every US election since the nineteen eighties through
a process called the Thirteen Keys to the White House.
He's with us this morning, Alan, thanks for being on
the show. Who's going to win?
Speaker 5 (05:54):
Well? I have not made a final prediction yet. I've
been misinterpreted as having made one, but I'm I'm not
going to make one until after the Democratic Convention. But
I have been saying for months and the switch from
Biden to Harris, has not changed that that a lot
would have to go wrong for the Democrats to lose.
(06:16):
That's certainly possible, that can happen. Things are very fluid,
but a lot would have to go wrong for the
Democrats to lose. According to my keys to the White
House system, which taps into the structure of how American
presidential elections really work as votes up or down on
(06:37):
the strength and performance of the White House Party. And
the system has been right since I predicted Ronald Reagan's
re election in April nineteen eighty two, nearly three years
ahead of time, when America was then in the worst
recession since the Great Depression, and sixty percent of Americans
thought Ronald Reagan was too old to run again. And
(06:59):
of course I was virtually alone in predicting Donald Trump's
win in twenty sixteen, which is you can imagine, did
not make me very popular in ninety percent plus Democratic
Washington d c or. I teach at American University.
Speaker 2 (07:16):
That year formula works. You're stuck to it, You're held
to ground. I think that's when I last interviewed you.
You've got these thirteen keys. Some of them are about
the economy, you know, the short term economy, the long
term economy. Obviously, there's been inflation in the US, the
stock markets are in turmoil at the moment. Do you
weight the keys differently or they all waited the same.
Speaker 5 (07:40):
There are two secrets to the successful use of the keys,
and one is they're all weighted as one. The problem
is when you wait parameters of any system, they have
to be based on past elections, but the weights will
then unpredictably change in a future election eras. Secondly, there
(08:02):
are trigger effects, so if one key is big enough,
it will trigger other keys. For example, in the sixties,
the war in Vietnam triggered Lyndon Johnson to withdraw from
his re election campaign, losing the incumbency key, losing the
party contest key. The war created a great deal of
(08:23):
social unrest and democratic losses in the midterm elections of
nineteen sixty six.
Speaker 2 (08:30):
You mentioned the incumbency key. Does Harris get that even
though she wasn't the president in this term.
Speaker 5 (08:38):
Well, you know, I was very critical of the democrats
shameful public trashing of their incumbent president, and I thought
they were heading for the disaster of both losing the
incumbency key if they forced by out and losing the
party contest key, because they were heading for a big brawl.
(08:59):
But somehow the Democrats, who aspine in a brain, did
the right thing, united behind Harris, which avoided the loss
of the contest key. And so this major change only
cost the Democrats one key, the incumbency key, and did
not fundamentally change my assessment.
Speaker 2 (09:21):
What about Robert F. Kennedy, one of your keys is
a third party being involved. What do you think his
chances will be? And who does it hurt?
Speaker 5 (09:32):
Third parties in my system count against the White House
Party because it's a sign of discontent. But it's a
high threshold key. You've got to anticipate the third party
candidate to be getting at least five percent of the vote.
Of course I don't know that. So it's the one
time I have to use a poll. But I don't
take the poll at face value because typically as a
(09:55):
result of the Lickman wasted vote syndrome, I love you RFKG,
which can't win, so I won't vote for you. I
cut the poll numbers in half. So he's got to
be polling at least ten percent. I don't think that's
going to.
Speaker 2 (10:09):
Happen, Ell in one of your case. The final question
is incumbent charisma, challenge of charisma, who's more charismatic.
Speaker 5 (10:18):
It's not a question of who's more charismatic, it's a
question of whether these candidates fulfill my criteria, which is
they have to be one of these once in a
generation inspirational, broadly appealing candidates who converts members of the opposition,
like the Democrat Franklin Roosevelt or the Republican Ronald Reagan
(10:41):
who won six elections in landslides or near landslides. Clearly,
Paris has not yet emerged as an FDR, and Trump
is not a Reagan. He lost two elections in the
votes of the people by ten million votes. There are
not a Trump Democrats like there were Reagan Democrats. He
(11:03):
only appeals to a narrow base and thus does not
fit the criteria either.
Speaker 1 (11:10):
Ryan Bridge, there was.
Speaker 2 (11:11):
Alan Lickman, who's the presidential historian, has correctly predicted every
single US election since the nineteen eighties, bar two thousand
when he says al Gore should have won, and we
all know what happened in Florida. With that anyway, coming
up next, I would like your feedback on that too. Actually,
if you think he's if he's got a good point,
I mean clearly he's doing something right. Nine two ninety
two is the number to text and welcome your text
(11:33):
this morning. Coming up next. Two and a half thousand
ambulance offices are going on strikes. So what happens if
you ring one on one.
Speaker 1 (11:40):
News and views you trust to start your day. It's
early edition with Ryan Bridge and Smith City, New Zealand's
furniture beds and a flying store news talk sidby US.
Speaker 2 (11:51):
Stocks were down and then they were back up again slightly,
and now they're down again. We'll have more on that shortly.
Right now. More than two and a half thousand ambulance
offices are going on this month. It comes after failed
pay negotiations with Saint John, who says it has no
money and is relying on Health New Zealand to bring
something to the table. First Union and Ambulance Association members
(12:11):
voted to stagger four hour withdrawals of labor over two days.
Famer Can is with First Union, She's with us this morning, Faye.
How will this work? This withdrawal of labor?
Speaker 7 (12:25):
Yeah, So our members basically will show up to work
late four hours late on the twentieth and on the
twenty fourth of August, and.
Speaker 2 (12:34):
How will that affect the service?
Speaker 7 (12:38):
So there will be less ambulances available, there'll be less
call handlers to answer calls, less the statues. Ultimately we
go on to an agreement with Saint John to provide
minimum staffing numbers, so it'll be reduced service, but they
will still be ambulances available there for people.
Speaker 2 (12:55):
When you it's how many of your members are going
to be turning up late?
Speaker 7 (13:00):
So we represent a thousand members and astoundingly, ninety five
percent of them were keen to take this action. It's
unfortunate that we've got to the stage. Obviously it's not
the ideal situation, and we took a lot of different
strike actions before this, but ultimately the government has chosen
to ignore their voices services then making sure that they're heard.
Speaker 2 (13:20):
So that's a thousand of your members who won't be
coming for the first four hours of the shift. Do
you know how many will with the life preserving agreement
you're going to nut out with Saint John, how many
will be on board?
Speaker 7 (13:35):
I know we're not into that detail at the moment.
Speaker 2 (13:38):
Is it going to will people die.
Speaker 7 (13:42):
We're hoping that people won't die, but they'll certainly be delayed. Ultimately,
what we would like is the government to step in
to give more funding because the issue that we're seeing
is if our members don't take action now, is ultimately
the ambulance service is going to crumble. So although it's
some of this is to do with pay, that ultimately
is to do with them going to work each day
(14:04):
in the system that's not working and then seeing the
risks if it continues to work in that way.
Speaker 2 (14:09):
Faye, one of our listeners is just text and to say,
don't call the ambulance, call an uber. They'll get you
to hospital quicker. Are people going to have to do
stuff like that?
Speaker 7 (14:20):
Yeah, But the sad reality is that that's say on
a day to day basis at the moment, that's what
we're hearing that people are like, our members are going
to people who have been waiting for hours and they
shouldn't have been waiting for hours.
Speaker 2 (14:32):
Faith, Thanks for your time this morning, Famercan, the National
Ambulance coordinator for First Union. That strike action due to
take place later this month. Goodness me, I hope the
uber driv Uber drivers have got a first aid course
on board. Actually, if you have jumped in an uber
to get to hospital because the ambulance waits too long,
(14:53):
how did that go for you? Nine two nine two
is the number text twenty five after five.
Speaker 1 (15:00):
The early edition full show podcast on iHeartRadio powered by
Newstalks at Me.
Speaker 2 (15:06):
It has just gone twenty seven after five. US stock
markets had a bit of a panic attack overnight. I
think that's the best way to describe it. Investors have
been selling off, especially in tech stocks. The US job
data that came out on Friday seems to have freaked
the horses. Losses are being clawed back slightly this morning.
But everyone is on edge. Why well, it's the largest
(15:28):
economy in the world. It affects us all, and we're
all sort of teetering on the edge of an economic cliff.
It feels like at the moment we're all at the
mercy of our central banks and their rate cut decisions.
Will they cut, won't they cut? In this case, you've
got no cut last week from the Fed, and you've
got some bad data, and oh we're going to recession,
and America's going to recession. The US feed obviously didn't
(15:51):
cut and if ours doesn't cut soon, then we'll probably
have the same issues here. I imagine Bank of England,
the euro Central Bank, they have cut. Here's the thing
I was thinking about this morning, when the cuts happen.
You know, we've got a mortgage at my house we're
going to be refixing. So when they happen, I'm not
going to be running out and splurging on the credit card.
(16:12):
You know, There'll be no new TV or couch at
my house. There'll be no new car in the driveway,
and I won't be going to fancy restaurants all the time.
I won't be going to the clubs and making it
rain cash. Just because the rates have cut. This cost
of living crisis, coupled with the technical recession that we
went through, it's got me feeling a little sensible. If
(16:33):
I'm being honest with you, I'm thinking more about saving.
I'm thinking more about being strategic investing. You never know
when the next government slash, reserve banks splurge might fuel
the next big thing. You know, the lockdowns, then the
loose purse strings, the prolonged eye interest rates. So you've
got to be prepared for stuff. What does that mean
(16:53):
for retailers who are falling over to their knees all
around us. I think sadly won't suddenly bounce back once
Adrian Orr blows his whistle. It'll be a long, hard
slog yet. Twenty nine after five if you're on news Talk,
said B. When we come back, an update on how
(17:15):
many Kiwis are in the Middle East. More mornings about
that this morning. Also, did you know in the UK
Strictly Come Dancing they're getting their first blind dancer. I'll
tell you about that.
Speaker 1 (17:30):
Too, Ryan Bridge New for twenty twenty four on early
edition with Smith City, New Zealand's furniture beds and a
playing store. News Talk SIDB.
Speaker 3 (17:46):
You can't start.
Speaker 2 (17:55):
Twenty four to six you're on news Talks, it'd be
with me, Ryan Bridge. Over in the UK Strictly Come Dancing,
you'll know that show they've got their first ever blind contestant.
He says. His name's Chris mcclolsland. He says, I don't dance,
I haven't danced, I can't dance and I can't see
the dancing I will have to do. This is going
(18:16):
to be fun. He's a comedian. He sounds like a
good sport lost his sight in his twenties, and I
wonder would it be easier to dance if you had
danced before with sight as opposed to being blind from
birth and never having done it with sight. The night
we'll find out. No word yet on whether his partner
(18:36):
will also be blind. Twenty three away from six lots
of your feedback this morning, Ryan, the s and P
five hundred is higher than it was three months ago.
Why would you describe this morning's tumble as turmoil? Says John, John,
thank you for your for your text. I didn't describe
it as turmoil because of this reason. I quite deliberately
(18:56):
described it as a freak out and a panic attack.
I think they'll recover some of them. More are already,
James says. The ambulance staff going on strike. James says,
A player and the team that we played against last
week in social football broke his leg right in front
of us. He splintered his leg, got an uber two
minutes around the corner to Auckland Hospital. This was the
(19:18):
Auckland Grammar turf they were playing on. Because the ambulance
said it'd be ninety minutes. People are using uber morning, Ryan.
My sister was t boned by a van and in
her car spun out, all her airbags inflated. She ended
up in someone's front yard. The guy who hit her
rung an ambulance. They said they were busy, so she
rang our brother who lives closer to pick her up
(19:40):
and take her to the hospital. W TF only had
bruising in shot, but geez, she could have had a
heart attack. This is in lower Heart by the way
from Erica. Goodness me, I just think we need to
forget the ambulance drivers. We just need to train the
uber drivers as paramedics. Simple, easy solution. Twenty two away
(20:03):
from Sex Rayon Bridge, Colum Proctors and Dunedin for us
this morning, Callum. The second phase of the coronial inquest
into the death of this toddler in Gore starts today.
Speaker 8 (20:16):
Morning Ryan, it does, and more experts are set to
give evidence from today. This is three year old Lachland Jones,
who died in twenty nineteen, found in a council oxidation
pond about a kilometer from his home. Police concluded he
walked there himself, as father Paul Jones, though believes he
was murdered. His lawyer put allegations of foul play and
neglect to witnesses in the first part of the inquest.
(20:39):
Forensic pathologists and a child behavior expert will be called
in the second phase, while half brother Jonathan Scott's also
expected to be recalled. The inquest will last for two weeks.
Speaker 2 (20:51):
Callum, how's your weather today?
Speaker 8 (20:53):
It's pretty good with a norwester today, so it's a
bit warmer, fine and a higher fourteen.
Speaker 2 (20:57):
Great, Thank you, Claire Sherwoods and christ Church Claire, good
morning to you.
Speaker 9 (21:00):
Good morning.
Speaker 2 (21:01):
The Canterbury School and the five year weight for a redevelopment.
Speaker 10 (21:06):
Yes, now this is Alasmeir College, so plans to replace
the existing grounds out there by modern spaces was actually
announced back in twenty nineteen, but there have been massive
delays because of groundwater problems. It's now set to be
completed by twenty twenty eight, the first stage beginning this week.
Acting Principal Anthony French says the new build should cater
(21:27):
for seven hundred and fifty students. That's about a thirty
percent increase on its current role. He now say there
are significant subdivision consents being granted in the area around
Leiston and so there's belief the school will be at
capacity by the time it.
Speaker 2 (21:42):
Is opened, right and weather clear.
Speaker 10 (21:44):
Frosty again here in christ Church light winds are high
of twelve with minus three overnight.
Speaker 2 (21:49):
Thank you a man in Wellington Max Toll has managed
to just stomp on those silly raised crossings Max well.
Speaker 3 (21:56):
I have inz TA has really a lot of controversial
work being done around this, but perhaps this Thornton Key
plan is number one businesses dyeing roads being torn up
before old water pipes are factored in, and now yes,
NZTA pulling funding for those pesky raised the pedestrian crossings,
crossings that countless organizations had opposed, including emergency officials who
(22:18):
said it would hinder ambulances. So you'd think that would
be that, but council documents, essentially Council advice now recommends
councilors still go ahead with the plan by get this
going more into debt to stump up over three hundred
thousand dollars. You think that would be insanity personified if
(22:41):
it did happen. Several councilors tell us look no way
on their watch. But also worth adding surprise surprise, fresh
leak popping up on Thornton Key yesterday maybe is feared
it might have to be ripped up all over again.
Speaker 2 (22:52):
Anyway, I just don't even I can't even talk Max.
I'm so angry. Thankfully neighbors here, she can come down
and second that's Max hold mall or whether today Max
fine northerlys a higher thirteen. Thank you nevers here, Hi.
Speaker 9 (23:06):
Neva Hi, it's great seeing you mad. I've never seen
you met, jumping up and down in your chair. But
you're quite right. You've got good reason to let outrage.
Speaker 2 (23:12):
You want to just hit something exactly.
Speaker 9 (23:14):
You know, you should be running the country or you
should be running Wellington.
Speaker 2 (23:18):
Running the country. What's happening in Auckland today?
Speaker 9 (23:24):
Well this will rip united too, this story yere So
Auckland Council has been taken to court by its Marty
Advisory Board. Now this is over the appointment of a
new chairman to its water business. Now the Independent Marty
Statutary Board is seeking a review in the High Court
in Auckland. Now this is to overturn the appointment of
Jeff Hunt as chairman of water Care. Now It's chairman,
(23:46):
David Taipati says they believe the decision to point Hunt
was procedurally unlawful. So he says that a panel unanimously
recommended a Marty candidate for the role, but then Councilor
Morris Williamson he passed an amendment behind fine closed doors
for Hunt to get the role. So Tai Party says
it's not about the person but the way they were appointed.
(24:07):
So yes of argie bargie. More to come on that one.
Speaker 2 (24:11):
We're the today Neva Party.
Speaker 9 (24:12):
Cloudy, we've got isolated showers. It a will clear tonight
aalkan hire fifteen degrees.
Speaker 2 (24:16):
Brilliant, thank you. Lots of text coming in on whether
you should uber to the hospital. This one says there's
no uber in Tirau or Tito. We do have a
milk factory. Maybe the milk tanker drivers could be trained
as ambulance officers. It's just gone seventeen away from six.
Speaker 1 (24:35):
Get ahead of the headlines. Ryan Bridge you for twenty
twenty four on early edition with Smith City, New Zealand's
furniture beds and a play at store.
Speaker 2 (24:44):
News Talk said, be good morning, great to have your
company just gone quarters to six year on news Talk
said b and I've just had it confirmed that we're
going to cancel our ad break just before the news.
You don't often hear this. How will they pay us.
We're going to cancel the ad break and we're going
to bring you live the New Zealand Track cycling women's team.
They are in a sprint for a gold medal just
(25:06):
before six o'clock, so they stay tuned for that. Mike
Hoskin is going to come in and hold my hand
for the experience. Bangladesh. We were talking about this yesterday.
The riots, the protests over the jobs for the boys
because there's a quota for the civil service. Anyway, they
turned into basically anti government protests. Now they have got
their wish. They have forced the Prime Minister to flee.
(25:28):
She's resigned and fled. She's gone to India. Nearly three
hundred people have died since July and they have stormed.
The protesters stormed her official residence, looting, smashing cars and furniture, celebrating.
Have a listen. They are absolutely trashing the official residence.
(25:58):
There was even footage of them eating the curry in
the kitchen that the chefs had left. Anyway, the head
of the Army says an interim government will be formed
by the end of the day. No word yet on
who will actually lead it.
Speaker 1 (26:10):
Thirteen to six International Correspondence with ends in Eye Insurance
Peace of Mind for New Zealand Business.
Speaker 2 (26:18):
Donna Demaya's our Australia correspondent this morning. Your terror threat
level is up, Donna, Yes, So the.
Speaker 4 (26:24):
Prime Minister Anthony Abernezi has revealed that Australia's national terror
threat is now probable as a threat of violence grows.
We also heard from Asia, which is the nation's peak
security intelligence association, since the chance of a terrorist attack
in Australia is now probable, it's concerned about the rising
threat of politically motivated violence. Now the table of threat
(26:47):
levels you might want to know is at the very
bottom it's deemed not expected, then possible, where now on
probable it can also lift to expected. And in the
top of that table is certain. So there is now
deemed a greater than fifty percent chance of an onshore
attack in Australia.
Speaker 5 (27:07):
Now.
Speaker 4 (27:07):
The announcement came as the PM was flanked by the
ASIO Director Mike Burgess and Attorney General Mark Drafers. The
PM says there's no evidence of a specific and immediate attack,
but he does say that also that probable does not
actually mean inevitable and there's no actual intelligence about an
imminent threat or danger, but there is a need for
a higher level of preparedness for agencies and alertness for
(27:31):
the public. Now, as you know, we've seen a global
rise in politically motivated violence and extremism, as that's been
put to Australians as well, so Asio says it's principal
security concerns do now involve the fact that Australia is
more more volatile and more unpredictable, and hence this upgrade
(27:52):
to the terror threat being deemed probable. We also heard
from the Opposition Peter Dutton and the Leader, I should say,
and he said that all Australians should pay attention about
what is happening in society. We have heard in some
way a little bit sort of calming because as he
also says, you know, we have to be aware but
not afraid. And yet we hear it not in much detail,
(28:15):
but there have been eight incidents in four months that
have been disrupted by the agencies. It was either an
act of terrorism or investigated for links to terrorism, and
involved are some young people, some as young as fourteen
to twenty one years of age.
Speaker 9 (28:30):
US.
Speaker 2 (28:31):
It's hard to know with that language. Don't know whether
to be freaked out or not, but it sounds like
they're just being cautious at this time. Done a dem our,
Australia Correspondent. It is eleven away.
Speaker 5 (28:40):
From six Brian Bridge.
Speaker 2 (28:42):
You want to get that women's track cycling gold Medal
race coming your way very shortly? Right now, Let's call
it what it is. It's an education crisis. Just twenty
two percent of year eight students are at the expected
standard for mass. That means roughly eighty percent are not.
And the government wants to fly eight twenty so that
eighty percent are actually achieving. They've got new workbooks coming
(29:05):
next year, they've got teacher upskilling. The ERRO is being
overhauled to focus on outcomes and achievement. The Ministry of
Education will intervene earlier and more often. Is it going
to work? Doctor Michael Johnston is with the New Zealand Initiative.
He's a senior fellow there and has worked in education
most of his life. Michael, good morning, good morning. How
(29:25):
are you doing very well? Thank you? Are they on
the right track with what they're doing.
Speaker 3 (29:30):
Well.
Speaker 11 (29:30):
They definitely need to do something like this, as you said,
or you could describe it as a crisis, but actually
there's no indication from these data that things have got worse.
It's probably just revealed what's been there for quite some time.
The way in which they've tested maths and other curriculum
(29:51):
areas has changed. And what we're catching now kids who
are behind the year level that they're at, Whereas in
the past measured how far whether they were at the
right phase, which bands of years. So we've got finer
grained data here, and so it's likely that things haven't
(30:11):
actually got worse, that they've been this bad for a while.
Speaker 2 (30:15):
How long are we talking decades?
Speaker 11 (30:19):
We don't know exactly, Quite likely a decade or more.
Speaker 2 (30:24):
So if that's the case, should we should be that worried?
Speaker 5 (30:29):
Oh?
Speaker 11 (30:29):
I think we should be worried when only just a
bit more than a fifth of year eight students are
meeting the standard according to the curriculum. So yeah, I
think the action that the Minister for Education and the
Prime Minister have announced is absolutely necessary. Will it be enough, well,
time will tell, But I think that it's encouraging that
(30:54):
they're introducing these workbooks and teacher guides. Just to be clear,
my understanding is that those books will be aligned with
the new curriculum that's coming next year, so the publishing
companies will do some work on them to reconfigure them
to match the curriculum.
Speaker 2 (31:15):
I spoke to a principle yesterday and he didn't have
high hopes for this, first of all, that they would
even get the booklets. But second of all, he said,
will they cater to my ever increasingly diverse range of students,
including neuro diverse students in different English, second language, all
these other things? Will they do that? And is that
(31:36):
a big problem for the education system?
Speaker 11 (31:39):
Well, first of all, let me say that I think
it is a big problem for the education system, and
I would acknowledge the huge challenges that teachers are facing
at the moment with behavior in our classrooms. There was
a report, I think it was from the OECD that
said that the disorder in our classrooms is amongst the
worst in the worst in the world. Neurodiversity seems to
(32:02):
be on the increase for reasons that are not fully understood.
I certainly acknowledge the challenges that teachers face, and I
think more will be required to meet that target of
eighty percent at curriculum by the end of year eight
in twenty thirty.
Speaker 2 (32:21):
Yeah, we've still got a long way to go. Doctor
Michael Johnson, thank you very much for your time. He's
a senior fellow at the New Zealand Initiative talking about
the government's crackdown on education. Seven away from six. Coming
up next, we've got the track cycling that women's team
going for gold. Are also an update on what's happening
in the UK with the riots.
Speaker 1 (32:38):
The news you need this morning and the in depth
analysis early edition with Ryan Bridge and Smith City, New
Zealand's furniture beds and a playing store.
Speaker 2 (32:47):
News Talk said, be five to six, you're on news Talk,
said be kirsta of the British Prime Minister has spoken
about the rioting over in the UK. They've held a
Cobra meeting which is like their situation room. Have a listen.
Speaker 12 (32:59):
Whatever the parent motivation, this is not protest. It is
pure violence and we will not tolerate attacks on mosques
or our Muslim communities. So the full force of the
law will be visited on all those who are identified
as having taken part in these activities.
Speaker 2 (33:19):
They've decided that a standing army of police specialist officers
will be ready to be deployed, which gives the impression
that the army is involved. It's not. It's just police officers.
Four minutes away from six now, and we're very excited
because the women's team is the track cycling team is
going for gold and Mike Hoskins and we're canceling the ads,
breaking your usual programming. Good morning, Mike, morning, Good see you.
Speaker 13 (33:42):
It's moderately exciting because the British, of course have set
the world record right in the lead up to this,
so we set it momentarily in our previous race, so
that looked good. So this could be fast trak is
the other thing you need to know. That's why we will.
Records are falling, so it's a fast track and so
we set the record. They then came along Great Britain
(34:03):
this is and then they set the record in their heat,
so they beat us in time. So it's all in order.
You have to think that's going to be very tight
and on.
Speaker 2 (34:11):
Perhaps more than moderately exciting, even Mike, it could be.
Speaker 13 (34:14):
It could be phenomenally exciting. But then again, we've got
but Butcher he's going to be on the program as well.
There's some debate about the sport. Should I go there?
When I interview him, Well, yeah, I mean you should.
It's the first time, it's at the Olympics. Yeah, he's
the first when it's his first Olympics once, I guess
the brilliant thing is that if you're the first, you
(34:35):
will always be the first.
Speaker 2 (34:36):
True.
Speaker 13 (34:36):
So he's never been to the Olympics before. So he's
at his first Olympics in the first event and he
wins the goal first champion. You can never take that
away from somebody.
Speaker 2 (34:46):
That's pretty cool. I mean watching it, it's great to watch.
In fact, I would sooner watch that than I was
the cycling.
Speaker 13 (34:52):
That's not the criteria though, is it really? My wife
said to me, and I think she was probably right.
She said, that sort of thing is what you do
when you go to water World and Queensland.
Speaker 2 (35:02):
And you pay money, don't break.
Speaker 13 (35:06):
Well, that's what I'm saying.
Speaker 2 (35:07):
Should I go there? I go? Mate? Is this really sport?
Should I say?
Speaker 1 (35:12):
Well?
Speaker 2 (35:12):
It's that place out in South Auckland where they do it. Yeah, exactly,
all right, Okay, apparently the race is about to start.
The moderately exciting track cycling women's event. We're going for gold.
Speaker 1 (35:23):
Take a look a Chance for Gold Live commentary of
Paris twenty twenty four on youth tall zbys.
Speaker 14 (35:31):
James to match up and create parity with the men,
and now these New Zealanders and these Brits get the chances.
The Belodrome gets into a state of great excitement as
they prepare with Germany just taking the bronze in this
event and the ride off, So just to clarify, there'll
be three laps of two hundred and fifty meters. First lap,
(35:54):
all three riders will complete. We'll see Rick Becca pitch
lead off in New Zealand, will be followed by Fulton
taking a lead wheel in the second leg, followed by
Alese Andrews, and then we'll see Fulton peel off and
Andrews will be required to do the final two hundred
and fifty meters. The writers getting into their starting blocks
(36:16):
now ahead of the start at the San contin Non
Evelyn Velodrome on the outskirts of the French capital. Pensive
and concentrated faces of the participants. They're starting off from
(36:38):
opposite sides of the track and the races tend to
go for about forty five seconds of what we've seen
today and.
Speaker 1 (36:48):
For more from News Talks B listen live on air
or online, and keep our shows with you wherever you
go with our podcasts on iHeartRadio
The issues, the interview and the inside. Ryan Bridge new
for twenty twenty four on the early edition with Smith City,
New Zealand's furniture beds and a play a store. News
Talk sa'd be.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
Good morning, Tuesday, the sixth of August. Deal with me,
Ryan Bridge on News Talk sai'd be just gone six
after five. Great to have your company this morning. Are
the global stock markets having a panic attack? They have
been while we've been sleeping. Shares a tumbling left, right
and center. Why some are saying dying panic. Calm down,
it's a false alarm. Also this morning, the butcher gets
(00:37):
his bacon, Finn butcher has one gold. Who knew that
was going to happen?
Speaker 3 (00:41):
Not me.
Speaker 2 (00:42):
We'll talk more about that shortly. Plus let's call it
what it is, an education crisis. Given the data we
had yesterday plus new NCA figures, We're going to ask
the New Zealand Initiative for their opinion on this, not
the unions, the New Zealand Initiative for their opinion US
before six it is seven after five the agenda Tuesday
(01:06):
to sixth of August. Stock markets in the US have
basically had a freak out overnight. The Dale Jones has
dropped almost at one thousand points, with every DAL stock
in the red now, the S and P five hundred
down four point one on early trading, the Nasdaq down
six point three. Some of those losses have now been
called back. It follows global concern about a slowing US economy.
(01:26):
Job data from the States on Friday show to rise
and unemployment to four point three percent. Bangladesh's Prime Minister,
Sheikh Hasina, has resigned and fled the country following weeks
of anti government protests. Protesters have now stormed her official
residents celebrating her resignation. Three hundred people have died in
(01:57):
the clashes between protesters and police, which arted peacefully in June.
So what happens now, we'll look at that soon. The
Meat Industry Associations revealed that New Zealand exported nine hundred
and fourteen million dollars worth of red meat in June.
It's nearly a billion bucks. The US is once again
leading the pack is our key exports, jumping fourteen percent
(02:18):
to three hundred and three million dollars. Chief executive Serma
Karapever says global economic conditions seem to be improving with
food inflation falling.
Speaker 4 (02:28):
We are hopeful that all that continues and as a result,
we see more.
Speaker 5 (02:33):
Demand or sustained demands than all those countries.
Speaker 1 (02:37):
The first Word on the News of the Day Early
edition with Ryan Bridge and Smith City, New Zealand's Furniture
Beds and a Playing Store.
Speaker 2 (02:46):
News Talk d be in a few minutes. We're going
to talk to the presidential historian who has correctly predicted
every single US presidential election since the nineteen eighties, bar
Al Gore in two thousand. So who's going to win
the next year's election? I suppose we'll find out in
a few minutes. Hey, congratulations Finn Butcher. He's taken gold
(03:06):
in the men's canoe slalom cross. He led the field
basically from the start to the finish. It was a
flawless performance. If you're wondering exactly what that is. Four paddlers,
huge drop into whitewater. They kayak down the water. There
are gates, they go round the gates, they go in
(03:27):
the gates. They do a little you know, flip, what
do they call that? You go under the water and
flip around. They do a roll. That's it, thanks Leo.
They do a role and then they finish. It's very
over in a second before you know it. Have a listen.
Speaker 6 (03:45):
It's Clark makes and roaches. He's around gate five. He
has to go across the grain here Butcher through gate six.
Two gates to go through seven, the all important upstream
gates for Finn. Butcher uses to navigate it shafely and
the gold medal is his. Finn Butcher is an Olympic champion.
Speaker 2 (04:13):
That was very excited. So this is a new event
of the Olympics. So he is the first champion in
this event and his first Olympic Games as well, which
is very cool. Now the women's track cycling is happening.
We are in contention. I am hearing potentially for a medal,
So we'll bring you that live as it happens here
(04:34):
on news Talk, said B. It has just gone ten
after five. Coming up next, Who's going to win the
US Presidential Election?
Speaker 1 (04:42):
On your radio and online on iHeartRadio Early edition with
Ryan Bridge and Smith City, New Zealand's Furniture, Beds and
a playing Store.
Speaker 2 (04:51):
News Talk said B. Thirteen after five, News Talk said B, Hey,
there are unconfirmed reports this morning that a Kiwi helicopter
pilot has been killed in Harpour in Indonesia. This is
the same place where the other Kiwi, Philip Mertons, who
was piloting a fixed wing aircraft, was taken a hostage
and so he's still been held captive there. That was
(05:12):
eighteen months ago. Apparently it's the same group they think
who kidnapped Philip Mertens, who was responsible for killing this
Keiwi helicopter pilot. This is an unconfirmed report from local
police at this stage. We'll keep you up to date
with that throughout the morning. Right to the United States
we Go. Karmena Harris is set to announce her vice
presidential pick tomorrow, ahead of their first public appearance together
(05:36):
in Pennsylvania on Thursday. Presidential historian Alan Lickman has correctly
predicted almost every US election since the nineteen eighties through
a process called the Thirteen Keys to the White House.
He's with us this morning, Alan, thanks for being on
the show. Who's going to win?
Speaker 5 (05:54):
Well? I have not made a final prediction yet. I've
been misinterpreted as having made one, but I'm I'm not
going to make one until after the Democratic Convention. But
I have been saying for months and the switch from
Biden to Harris, has not changed that that a lot
would have to go wrong for the Democrats to lose.
(06:16):
That's certainly possible, that can happen. Things are very fluid,
but a lot would have to go wrong for the
Democrats to lose. According to my keys to the White
House system, which taps into the structure of how American
presidential elections really work as votes up or down on
(06:37):
the strength and performance of the White House Party. And
the system has been right since I predicted Ronald Reagan's
re election in April nineteen eighty two, nearly three years
ahead of time, when America was then in the worst
recession since the Great Depression, and sixty percent of Americans
thought Ronald Reagan was too old to run again. And
(06:59):
of course I was virtually alone in predicting Donald Trump's
win in twenty sixteen, which is you can imagine, did
not make me very popular in ninety percent plus Democratic
Washington d c or. I teach at American University.
Speaker 2 (07:16):
That year formula works. You're stuck to it, You're held
to ground. I think that's when I last interviewed you.
You've got these thirteen keys. Some of them are about
the economy, you know, the short term economy, the long
term economy. Obviously, there's been inflation in the US, the
stock markets are in turmoil at the moment. Do you
weight the keys differently or they all waited the same.
Speaker 5 (07:40):
There are two secrets to the successful use of the keys,
and one is they're all weighted as one. The problem
is when you wait parameters of any system, they have
to be based on past elections, but the weights will
then unpredictably change in a future election eras. Secondly, there
(08:02):
are trigger effects, so if one key is big enough,
it will trigger other keys. For example, in the sixties,
the war in Vietnam triggered Lyndon Johnson to withdraw from
his re election campaign, losing the incumbency key, losing the
party contest key. The war created a great deal of
(08:23):
social unrest and democratic losses in the midterm elections of
nineteen sixty six.
Speaker 2 (08:30):
You mentioned the incumbency key. Does Harris get that even
though she wasn't the president in this term.
Speaker 5 (08:38):
Well, you know, I was very critical of the democrats
shameful public trashing of their incumbent president, and I thought
they were heading for the disaster of both losing the
incumbency key if they forced by out and losing the
party contest key, because they were heading for a big brawl.
(08:59):
But somehow the Democrats, who aspine in a brain, did
the right thing, united behind Harris, which avoided the loss
of the contest key. And so this major change only
cost the Democrats one key, the incumbency key, and did
not fundamentally change my assessment.
Speaker 2 (09:21):
What about Robert F. Kennedy, one of your keys is
a third party being involved. What do you think his
chances will be? And who does it hurt?
Speaker 5 (09:32):
Third parties in my system count against the White House
Party because it's a sign of discontent. But it's a
high threshold key. You've got to anticipate the third party
candidate to be getting at least five percent of the vote.
Of course I don't know that. So it's the one
time I have to use a poll. But I don't
take the poll at face value because typically as a
(09:55):
result of the Lickman wasted vote syndrome, I love you RFKG,
which can't win, so I won't vote for you. I
cut the poll numbers in half. So he's got to
be polling at least ten percent. I don't think that's
going to.
Speaker 2 (10:09):
Happen, Ell in one of your case. The final question
is incumbent charisma, challenge of charisma, who's more charismatic.
Speaker 5 (10:18):
It's not a question of who's more charismatic, it's a
question of whether these candidates fulfill my criteria, which is
they have to be one of these once in a
generation inspirational, broadly appealing candidates who converts members of the opposition,
like the Democrat Franklin Roosevelt or the Republican Ronald Reagan
(10:41):
who won six elections in landslides or near landslides. Clearly,
Paris has not yet emerged as an FDR, and Trump
is not a Reagan. He lost two elections in the
votes of the people by ten million votes. There are
not a Trump Democrats like there were Reagan Democrats. He
(11:03):
only appeals to a narrow base and thus does not
fit the criteria either.
Speaker 1 (11:10):
Ryan Bridge, there was.
Speaker 2 (11:11):
Alan Lickman, who's the presidential historian, has correctly predicted every
single US election since the nineteen eighties, bar two thousand
when he says al Gore should have won, and we
all know what happened in Florida. With that anyway, coming
up next, I would like your feedback on that too. Actually,
if you think he's if he's got a good point,
I mean clearly he's doing something right. Nine two ninety
two is the number to text and welcome your text
(11:33):
this morning. Coming up next. Two and a half thousand
ambulance offices are going on strikes. So what happens if
you ring one on one.
Speaker 1 (11:40):
News and views you trust to start your day. It's
early edition with Ryan Bridge and Smith City, New Zealand's
furniture beds and a flying store news talk sidby US.
Speaker 2 (11:51):
Stocks were down and then they were back up again slightly,
and now they're down again. We'll have more on that shortly.
Right now. More than two and a half thousand ambulance
offices are going on this month. It comes after failed
pay negotiations with Saint John, who says it has no
money and is relying on Health New Zealand to bring
something to the table. First Union and Ambulance Association members
(12:11):
voted to stagger four hour withdrawals of labor over two days.
Famer Can is with First Union, She's with us this morning, Faye.
How will this work? This withdrawal of labor?
Speaker 7 (12:25):
Yeah, So our members basically will show up to work
late four hours late on the twentieth and on the
twenty fourth of August, and.
Speaker 2 (12:34):
How will that affect the service?
Speaker 7 (12:38):
So there will be less ambulances available, there'll be less
call handlers to answer calls, less the statues. Ultimately we
go on to an agreement with Saint John to provide
minimum staffing numbers, so it'll be reduced service, but they
will still be ambulances available there for people.
Speaker 2 (12:55):
When you it's how many of your members are going
to be turning up late?
Speaker 7 (13:00):
So we represent a thousand members and astoundingly, ninety five
percent of them were keen to take this action. It's
unfortunate that we've got to the stage. Obviously it's not
the ideal situation, and we took a lot of different
strike actions before this, but ultimately the government has chosen
to ignore their voices services then making sure that they're heard.
Speaker 2 (13:20):
So that's a thousand of your members who won't be
coming for the first four hours of the shift. Do
you know how many will with the life preserving agreement
you're going to nut out with Saint John, how many
will be on board?
Speaker 7 (13:35):
I know we're not into that detail at the moment.
Speaker 2 (13:38):
Is it going to will people die.
Speaker 7 (13:42):
We're hoping that people won't die, but they'll certainly be delayed. Ultimately,
what we would like is the government to step in
to give more funding because the issue that we're seeing
is if our members don't take action now, is ultimately
the ambulance service is going to crumble. So although it's
some of this is to do with pay, that ultimately
is to do with them going to work each day
(14:04):
in the system that's not working and then seeing the
risks if it continues to work in that way.
Speaker 2 (14:09):
Faye, one of our listeners is just text and to say,
don't call the ambulance, call an uber. They'll get you
to hospital quicker. Are people going to have to do
stuff like that?
Speaker 7 (14:20):
Yeah, But the sad reality is that that's say on
a day to day basis at the moment, that's what
we're hearing that people are like, our members are going
to people who have been waiting for hours and they
shouldn't have been waiting for hours.
Speaker 2 (14:32):
Faith, Thanks for your time this morning, Famercan, the National
Ambulance coordinator for First Union. That strike action due to
take place later this month. Goodness me, I hope the
uber driv Uber drivers have got a first aid course
on board. Actually, if you have jumped in an uber
to get to hospital because the ambulance waits too long,
(14:53):
how did that go for you? Nine two nine two
is the number text twenty five after five.
Speaker 1 (15:00):
The early edition full show podcast on iHeartRadio powered by
Newstalks at Me.
Speaker 2 (15:06):
It has just gone twenty seven after five. US stock
markets had a bit of a panic attack overnight. I
think that's the best way to describe it. Investors have
been selling off, especially in tech stocks. The US job
data that came out on Friday seems to have freaked
the horses. Losses are being clawed back slightly this morning.
But everyone is on edge. Why well, it's the largest
(15:28):
economy in the world. It affects us all, and we're
all sort of teetering on the edge of an economic cliff.
It feels like at the moment we're all at the
mercy of our central banks and their rate cut decisions.
Will they cut, won't they cut? In this case, you've
got no cut last week from the Fed, and you've
got some bad data, and oh we're going to recession,
and America's going to recession. The US feed obviously didn't
(15:51):
cut and if ours doesn't cut soon, then we'll probably
have the same issues here. I imagine Bank of England,
the euro Central Bank, they have cut. Here's the thing
I was thinking about this morning, when the cuts happen.
You know, we've got a mortgage at my house we're
going to be refixing. So when they happen, I'm not
going to be running out and splurging on the credit card.
(16:12):
You know, There'll be no new TV or couch at
my house. There'll be no new car in the driveway,
and I won't be going to fancy restaurants all the time.
I won't be going to the clubs and making it
rain cash. Just because the rates have cut. This cost
of living crisis, coupled with the technical recession that we
went through, it's got me feeling a little sensible. If
(16:33):
I'm being honest with you, I'm thinking more about saving.
I'm thinking more about being strategic investing. You never know
when the next government slash, reserve banks splurge might fuel
the next big thing. You know, the lockdowns, then the
loose purse strings, the prolonged eye interest rates. So you've
got to be prepared for stuff. What does that mean
(16:53):
for retailers who are falling over to their knees all
around us. I think sadly won't suddenly bounce back once
Adrian Orr blows his whistle. It'll be a long, hard
slog yet. Twenty nine after five if you're on news Talk,
said B. When we come back, an update on how
(17:15):
many Kiwis are in the Middle East. More mornings about
that this morning. Also, did you know in the UK
Strictly Come Dancing they're getting their first blind dancer. I'll
tell you about that.
Speaker 1 (17:30):
Too, Ryan Bridge New for twenty twenty four on early
edition with Smith City, New Zealand's furniture beds and a
playing store. News Talk SIDB.
Speaker 3 (17:46):
You can't start.
Speaker 2 (17:55):
Twenty four to six you're on news Talks, it'd be
with me, Ryan Bridge. Over in the UK Strictly Come Dancing,
you'll know that show they've got their first ever blind contestant.
He says. His name's Chris mcclolsland. He says, I don't dance,
I haven't danced, I can't dance and I can't see
the dancing I will have to do. This is going
(18:16):
to be fun. He's a comedian. He sounds like a
good sport lost his sight in his twenties, and I
wonder would it be easier to dance if you had
danced before with sight as opposed to being blind from
birth and never having done it with sight. The night
we'll find out. No word yet on whether his partner
(18:36):
will also be blind. Twenty three away from six lots
of your feedback this morning, Ryan, the s and P
five hundred is higher than it was three months ago.
Why would you describe this morning's tumble as turmoil? Says John, John,
thank you for your for your text. I didn't describe
it as turmoil because of this reason. I quite deliberately
(18:56):
described it as a freak out and a panic attack.
I think they'll recover some of them. More are already,
James says. The ambulance staff going on strike. James says,
A player and the team that we played against last
week in social football broke his leg right in front
of us. He splintered his leg, got an uber two
minutes around the corner to Auckland Hospital. This was the
(19:18):
Auckland Grammar turf they were playing on. Because the ambulance
said it'd be ninety minutes. People are using uber morning, Ryan.
My sister was t boned by a van and in
her car spun out, all her airbags inflated. She ended
up in someone's front yard. The guy who hit her
rung an ambulance. They said they were busy, so she
rang our brother who lives closer to pick her up
(19:40):
and take her to the hospital. W TF only had
bruising in shot, but geez, she could have had a
heart attack. This is in lower Heart by the way
from Erica. Goodness me, I just think we need to
forget the ambulance drivers. We just need to train the
uber drivers as paramedics. Simple, easy solution. Twenty two away
(20:03):
from Sex Rayon Bridge, Colum Proctors and Dunedin for us
this morning, Callum. The second phase of the coronial inquest
into the death of this toddler in Gore starts today.
Speaker 8 (20:16):
Morning Ryan, it does, and more experts are set to
give evidence from today. This is three year old Lachland Jones,
who died in twenty nineteen, found in a council oxidation
pond about a kilometer from his home. Police concluded he
walked there himself, as father Paul Jones, though believes he
was murdered. His lawyer put allegations of foul play and
neglect to witnesses in the first part of the inquest.
(20:39):
Forensic pathologists and a child behavior expert will be called
in the second phase, while half brother Jonathan Scott's also
expected to be recalled. The inquest will last for two weeks.
Speaker 2 (20:51):
Callum, how's your weather today?
Speaker 8 (20:53):
It's pretty good with a norwester today, so it's a
bit warmer, fine and a higher fourteen.
Speaker 2 (20:57):
Great, Thank you, Claire Sherwoods and christ Church Claire, good
morning to you.
Speaker 9 (21:00):
Good morning.
Speaker 2 (21:01):
The Canterbury School and the five year weight for a redevelopment.
Speaker 10 (21:06):
Yes, now this is Alasmeir College, so plans to replace
the existing grounds out there by modern spaces was actually
announced back in twenty nineteen, but there have been massive
delays because of groundwater problems. It's now set to be
completed by twenty twenty eight, the first stage beginning this week.
Acting Principal Anthony French says the new build should cater
(21:27):
for seven hundred and fifty students. That's about a thirty
percent increase on its current role. He now say there
are significant subdivision consents being granted in the area around
Leiston and so there's belief the school will be at
capacity by the time it.
Speaker 2 (21:42):
Is opened, right and weather clear.
Speaker 10 (21:44):
Frosty again here in christ Church light winds are high
of twelve with minus three overnight.
Speaker 2 (21:49):
Thank you a man in Wellington Max Toll has managed
to just stomp on those silly raised crossings Max well.
Speaker 3 (21:56):
I have inz TA has really a lot of controversial
work being done around this, but perhaps this Thornton Key
plan is number one businesses dyeing roads being torn up
before old water pipes are factored in, and now yes,
NZTA pulling funding for those pesky raised the pedestrian crossings,
crossings that countless organizations had opposed, including emergency officials who
(22:18):
said it would hinder ambulances. So you'd think that would
be that, but council documents, essentially Council advice now recommends
councilors still go ahead with the plan by get this
going more into debt to stump up over three hundred
thousand dollars. You think that would be insanity personified if
(22:41):
it did happen. Several councilors tell us look no way
on their watch. But also worth adding surprise surprise, fresh
leak popping up on Thornton Key yesterday maybe is feared
it might have to be ripped up all over again.
Speaker 2 (22:52):
Anyway, I just don't even I can't even talk Max.
I'm so angry. Thankfully neighbors here, she can come down
and second that's Max hold mall or whether today Max
fine northerlys a higher thirteen. Thank you nevers here, Hi.
Speaker 9 (23:06):
Neva Hi, it's great seeing you mad. I've never seen
you met, jumping up and down in your chair. But
you're quite right. You've got good reason to let outrage.
Speaker 2 (23:12):
You want to just hit something exactly.
Speaker 9 (23:14):
You know, you should be running the country or you
should be running Wellington.
Speaker 2 (23:18):
Running the country. What's happening in Auckland today?
Speaker 9 (23:24):
Well this will rip united too, this story yere So
Auckland Council has been taken to court by its Marty
Advisory Board. Now this is over the appointment of a
new chairman to its water business. Now the Independent Marty
Statutary Board is seeking a review in the High Court
in Auckland. Now this is to overturn the appointment of
Jeff Hunt as chairman of water Care. Now It's chairman,
(23:46):
David Taipati says they believe the decision to point Hunt
was procedurally unlawful. So he says that a panel unanimously
recommended a Marty candidate for the role, but then Councilor
Morris Williamson he passed an amendment behind fine closed doors
for Hunt to get the role. So Tai Party says
it's not about the person but the way they were appointed.
(24:07):
So yes of argie bargie. More to come on that one.
Speaker 2 (24:11):
We're the today Neva Party.
Speaker 9 (24:12):
Cloudy, we've got isolated showers. It a will clear tonight
aalkan hire fifteen degrees.
Speaker 2 (24:16):
Brilliant, thank you. Lots of text coming in on whether
you should uber to the hospital. This one says there's
no uber in Tirau or Tito. We do have a
milk factory. Maybe the milk tanker drivers could be trained
as ambulance officers. It's just gone seventeen away from six.
Speaker 1 (24:35):
Get ahead of the headlines. Ryan Bridge you for twenty
twenty four on early edition with Smith City, New Zealand's
furniture beds and a play at store.
Speaker 2 (24:44):
News Talk said, be good morning, great to have your
company just gone quarters to six year on news Talk
said b and I've just had it confirmed that we're
going to cancel our ad break just before the news.
You don't often hear this. How will they pay us.
We're going to cancel the ad break and we're going
to bring you live the New Zealand Track cycling women's team.
They are in a sprint for a gold medal just
(25:06):
before six o'clock, so they stay tuned for that. Mike
Hoskin is going to come in and hold my hand
for the experience. Bangladesh. We were talking about this yesterday.
The riots, the protests over the jobs for the boys
because there's a quota for the civil service. Anyway, they
turned into basically anti government protests. Now they have got
their wish. They have forced the Prime Minister to flee.
(25:28):
She's resigned and fled. She's gone to India. Nearly three
hundred people have died since July and they have stormed.
The protesters stormed her official residence, looting, smashing cars and furniture, celebrating.
Have a listen. They are absolutely trashing the official residence.
(25:58):
There was even footage of them eating the curry in
the kitchen that the chefs had left. Anyway, the head
of the Army says an interim government will be formed
by the end of the day. No word yet on
who will actually lead it.
Speaker 1 (26:10):
Thirteen to six International Correspondence with ends in Eye Insurance
Peace of Mind for New Zealand Business.
Speaker 2 (26:18):
Donna Demaya's our Australia correspondent this morning. Your terror threat
level is up, Donna, Yes, So the.
Speaker 4 (26:24):
Prime Minister Anthony Abernezi has revealed that Australia's national terror
threat is now probable as a threat of violence grows.
We also heard from Asia, which is the nation's peak
security intelligence association, since the chance of a terrorist attack
in Australia is now probable, it's concerned about the rising
threat of politically motivated violence. Now the table of threat
(26:47):
levels you might want to know is at the very
bottom it's deemed not expected, then possible, where now on
probable it can also lift to expected. And in the
top of that table is certain. So there is now
deemed a greater than fifty percent chance of an onshore
attack in Australia.
Speaker 5 (27:07):
Now.
Speaker 4 (27:07):
The announcement came as the PM was flanked by the
ASIO Director Mike Burgess and Attorney General Mark Drafers. The
PM says there's no evidence of a specific and immediate attack,
but he does say that also that probable does not
actually mean inevitable and there's no actual intelligence about an
imminent threat or danger, but there is a need for
a higher level of preparedness for agencies and alertness for
(27:31):
the public. Now, as you know, we've seen a global
rise in politically motivated violence and extremism, as that's been
put to Australians as well, so Asio says it's principal
security concerns do now involve the fact that Australia is
more more volatile and more unpredictable, and hence this upgrade
(27:52):
to the terror threat being deemed probable. We also heard
from the Opposition Peter Dutton and the Leader, I should say,
and he said that all Australians should pay attention about
what is happening in society. We have heard in some
way a little bit sort of calming because as he
also says, you know, we have to be aware but
not afraid. And yet we hear it not in much detail,
(28:15):
but there have been eight incidents in four months that
have been disrupted by the agencies. It was either an
act of terrorism or investigated for links to terrorism, and
involved are some young people, some as young as fourteen
to twenty one years of age.
Speaker 9 (28:30):
US.
Speaker 2 (28:31):
It's hard to know with that language. Don't know whether
to be freaked out or not, but it sounds like
they're just being cautious at this time. Done a dem our,
Australia Correspondent. It is eleven away.
Speaker 5 (28:40):
From six Brian Bridge.
Speaker 2 (28:42):
You want to get that women's track cycling gold Medal
race coming your way very shortly? Right now, Let's call
it what it is. It's an education crisis. Just twenty
two percent of year eight students are at the expected
standard for mass. That means roughly eighty percent are not.
And the government wants to fly eight twenty so that
eighty percent are actually achieving. They've got new workbooks coming
(29:05):
next year, they've got teacher upskilling. The ERRO is being
overhauled to focus on outcomes and achievement. The Ministry of
Education will intervene earlier and more often. Is it going
to work? Doctor Michael Johnston is with the New Zealand Initiative.
He's a senior fellow there and has worked in education
most of his life. Michael, good morning, good morning. How
(29:25):
are you doing very well? Thank you? Are they on
the right track with what they're doing.
Speaker 3 (29:30):
Well.
Speaker 11 (29:30):
They definitely need to do something like this, as you said,
or you could describe it as a crisis, but actually
there's no indication from these data that things have got worse.
It's probably just revealed what's been there for quite some time.
The way in which they've tested maths and other curriculum
(29:51):
areas has changed. And what we're catching now kids who
are behind the year level that they're at, Whereas in
the past measured how far whether they were at the
right phase, which bands of years. So we've got finer
grained data here, and so it's likely that things haven't
(30:11):
actually got worse, that they've been this bad for a while.
Speaker 2 (30:15):
How long are we talking decades?
Speaker 11 (30:19):
We don't know exactly, Quite likely a decade or more.
Speaker 2 (30:24):
So if that's the case, should we should be that worried?
Speaker 5 (30:29):
Oh?
Speaker 11 (30:29):
I think we should be worried when only just a
bit more than a fifth of year eight students are
meeting the standard according to the curriculum. So yeah, I
think the action that the Minister for Education and the
Prime Minister have announced is absolutely necessary. Will it be enough, well,
time will tell, But I think that it's encouraging that
(30:54):
they're introducing these workbooks and teacher guides. Just to be clear,
my understanding is that those books will be aligned with
the new curriculum that's coming next year, so the publishing
companies will do some work on them to reconfigure them
to match the curriculum.
Speaker 2 (31:15):
I spoke to a principle yesterday and he didn't have
high hopes for this, first of all, that they would
even get the booklets. But second of all, he said,
will they cater to my ever increasingly diverse range of students,
including neuro diverse students in different English, second language, all
these other things? Will they do that? And is that
(31:36):
a big problem for the education system?
Speaker 11 (31:39):
Well, first of all, let me say that I think
it is a big problem for the education system, and
I would acknowledge the huge challenges that teachers are facing
at the moment with behavior in our classrooms. There was
a report, I think it was from the OECD that
said that the disorder in our classrooms is amongst the
worst in the worst in the world. Neurodiversity seems to
(32:02):
be on the increase for reasons that are not fully understood.
I certainly acknowledge the challenges that teachers face, and I
think more will be required to meet that target of
eighty percent at curriculum by the end of year eight
in twenty thirty.
Speaker 2 (32:21):
Yeah, we've still got a long way to go. Doctor
Michael Johnson, thank you very much for your time. He's
a senior fellow at the New Zealand Initiative talking about
the government's crackdown on education. Seven away from six. Coming
up next, we've got the track cycling that women's team
going for gold. Are also an update on what's happening
in the UK with the riots.
Speaker 1 (32:38):
The news you need this morning and the in depth
analysis early edition with Ryan Bridge and Smith City, New
Zealand's furniture beds and a playing store.
Speaker 2 (32:47):
News Talk said, be five to six, you're on news Talk,
said be kirsta of the British Prime Minister has spoken
about the rioting over in the UK. They've held a
Cobra meeting which is like their situation room. Have a listen.
Speaker 12 (32:59):
Whatever the parent motivation, this is not protest. It is
pure violence and we will not tolerate attacks on mosques
or our Muslim communities. So the full force of the
law will be visited on all those who are identified
as having taken part in these activities.
Speaker 2 (33:19):
They've decided that a standing army of police specialist officers
will be ready to be deployed, which gives the impression
that the army is involved. It's not. It's just police officers.
Four minutes away from six now, and we're very excited
because the women's team is the track cycling team is
going for gold and Mike Hoskins and we're canceling the ads,
breaking your usual programming. Good morning, Mike, morning, Good see you.
Speaker 13 (33:42):
It's moderately exciting because the British, of course have set
the world record right in the lead up to this,
so we set it momentarily in our previous race, so
that looked good. So this could be fast trak is
the other thing you need to know. That's why we will.
Records are falling, so it's a fast track and so
we set the record. They then came along Great Britain
(34:03):
this is and then they set the record in their heat,
so they beat us in time. So it's all in order.
You have to think that's going to be very tight
and on.
Speaker 2 (34:11):
Perhaps more than moderately exciting, even Mike, it could be.
Speaker 13 (34:14):
It could be phenomenally exciting. But then again, we've got
but Butcher he's going to be on the program as well.
There's some debate about the sport. Should I go there?
When I interview him, Well, yeah, I mean you should.
It's the first time, it's at the Olympics. Yeah, he's
the first when it's his first Olympics once, I guess
the brilliant thing is that if you're the first, you
(34:35):
will always be the first.
Speaker 2 (34:36):
True.
Speaker 13 (34:36):
So he's never been to the Olympics before. So he's
at his first Olympics in the first event and he
wins the goal first champion. You can never take that
away from somebody.
Speaker 2 (34:46):
That's pretty cool. I mean watching it, it's great to watch.
In fact, I would sooner watch that than I was
the cycling.
Speaker 13 (34:52):
That's not the criteria though, is it really? My wife
said to me, and I think she was probably right.
She said, that sort of thing is what you do
when you go to water World and Queensland.
Speaker 2 (35:02):
And you pay money, don't break.
Speaker 13 (35:06):
Well, that's what I'm saying.
Speaker 2 (35:07):
Should I go there? I go? Mate? Is this really sport?
Should I say?
Speaker 1 (35:12):
Well?
Speaker 2 (35:12):
It's that place out in South Auckland where they do it. Yeah, exactly,
all right, Okay, apparently the race is about to start.
The moderately exciting track cycling women's event. We're going for gold.
Speaker 1 (35:23):
Take a look a Chance for Gold Live commentary of
Paris twenty twenty four on youth tall zbys.
Speaker 14 (35:31):
James to match up and create parity with the men,
and now these New Zealanders and these Brits get the chances.
The Belodrome gets into a state of great excitement as
they prepare with Germany just taking the bronze in this
event and the ride off, So just to clarify, there'll
be three laps of two hundred and fifty meters. First lap,
(35:54):
all three riders will complete. We'll see Rick Becca pitch
lead off in New Zealand, will be followed by Fulton
taking a lead wheel in the second leg, followed by
Alese Andrews, and then we'll see Fulton peel off and
Andrews will be required to do the final two hundred
and fifty meters. The writers getting into their starting blocks
(36:16):
now ahead of the start at the San contin Non
Evelyn Velodrome on the outskirts of the French capital. Pensive
and concentrated faces of the participants. They're starting off from
(36:38):
opposite sides of the track and the races tend to
go for about forty five seconds of what we've seen
today and.
Speaker 1 (36:48):
For more from News Talks B listen live on air
or online, and keep our shows with you wherever you
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