Leon Goldsmith: On Israel and Hezbollah signalling an escalation in hostilities

Israel and Hezbollah have exchanged fire - signalling an escalation in hostilities.

Israel says it pre-emptively destroyed thousands of rocket launchers across Southern Lebanon.

Meanwhile, Hezbollah says it fired 320 rockets and drones at Israel - in the first phase of a retaliatory attack for the killing of its leaders.

Otago University Middle East expert Leon Goldsmith told Ryan Bridge Hezbollah had wanted to wait until a ceasefire was reached in Gaza before acting.

He says the group had been under a lot of pressure to do something over the assassinations.

He says they called the operation Arbaeen which is Arabic for 40 days.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
The tit for tat between Israel and Hezbila is really
ramping up overnight. There have been Israel has sent one
hundred jets to hit Lebanon in the preemptive strikes. That's
what they're calling them, preemptive strikes. Have a listen now,

(00:24):
both sides say they don't want war. This doesn't really
sound like it. They don't want war, do they, But
they are calling them preempt for strikes, and they are
trying to avoid at least on the face of it,
civilian casualties, including Hezbola have been going for drone launch pads,
specifically inside IDF bases apparently. So what does this mean.

(00:45):
Let's go to doctor Leon Goldsmith, the Ottagia University Middle
East expert. Doctor Leon. Good morning, Good morning, Roan, thanks
for being with me. What are you reading into this?
Is this the beginning of something or is this just
a bit of aling.

Speaker 2 (01:01):
I think this is probably what reasonably predictable based on
what happened after the assassinations of Fort Shako that Habella
and Hassan Asula, the leader of Habela, has basically promised
that there would be some kind of retaliation, but they
were waiting for the Gaza ceasefire hostage talks to see

(01:25):
if they could be successful, because if they could have
got those through under severe US pressure, that would be
a win for the whole resistance access but of course
on the other side, they were under severe pressure to
do something. So it's been forty forty days since those assassinations,
and that's what they called this operation are Beane, which

(01:45):
an Arabic means forty days. But it is still a
limited for tad As you mentioned, it's not the big
majors of escalation that we're concerned about.

Speaker 1 (01:57):
Do you think then that the ongoing talks in Doha
and elsewhere are actually working as a contagia for a
bigger attack.

Speaker 2 (02:09):
Well, I think what they were hoping was that because
the US is putting extreme pressure on all sides to
reach some kind of a ceasefire agreement now because of
the collector regional stability, that this is an opportunity for
Hamas to basically survive within Gaza, which of course the
Israelis don't want to see this, but this has been

(02:32):
what the reason why we haven't seen a retaliation until now.

Speaker 1 (02:35):
Yes, what happens as we lead up to the US
election because you've got a president, a potential president in Harris,
who is walking a tight rope between some very young
voters who are very pro gazen in Palestine and a
more war hung no, I don't want to say war Hungary,
but a more strident Biden.

Speaker 2 (02:55):
Yeah. I think there's definitely a factor. I'm not so
much expert on the politics, but I think what we
would see is that whatever Israel wants to achieve, and
I think they want to Nani has said overnight that
he wants to change the strategic situation on the northern border,
and that basically means reducing his bulla's capacity to pose

(03:18):
a threat to Israel. So I think he probably wants
to do that while Biden's still there. I think he's
been trying to provoke his brother and the Iranians into
a direct confrontation. I think that's what's been happening here.
So once again, the bull it's kind of it's kind
of like a it's not really back in Israel's court

(03:40):
because both sides feel as if that they've re established
some kind of de terrence through this overnight pits a tack.
Nathaniah's feeling a little bit more relaxed because his pole
numbers are up, so he's not feeling so insecure and
has on ISRAELA is feeling like he has at least
struck blow at Israel, which has restored his sort of

(04:02):
deterrence and his regional status.

Speaker 1 (04:06):
Thank you so much for the analysis, Doctor Lion Goldsmith.
Always great to have you on the show. Otaga University,
Middle East Expert. For more from News Talks B listen
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