Ryan Bridge: Christopher Luxon has reason to smile this morning

Christopher Luxon has reason to smile this morning – there are two sets of data to cheer about. 

First, the poll. He's shaking off that slightly cringe CEO moniker and cementing himself as a man with a plan, in charge, across most of the issues, and not allowing himself to become too distracted by the inevitable noise that comes with running the ninth floor. 

The latest taxpayer's union curia poll is out, it has National up 1.4 to 39% 

That's an extra seat from National, NZ First also get another, while there's also no change for ACT. Safe across the line for the coalition, with 67 seats. 

Preferred Prime Minister is getting interesting. 

Chippy's gone off a cliff, the trend is down, but this result’s a shocker – he's down 6.1 points to 12.6%. 

Luxon? 32.7%. 

Chippy is now almost within margin of error with, not Luxon, but Chlöe on 7.2%. 

The other numbers today, NZIER's quarterly consensus data. 

Not so great for us, at least in the short term. Big fat zero GDP growth in the year to March. 

That's depressing. We've had almost two years of recession, or close to now, and people just want this country firing again. 

That's where Luxon will be happy to see this prediction: 2.2% growth expected in the year to March 2026. 

And we know what else is happening in 2026, right? An election. 

It's humble, not runaway, but after these past years it's electoral fairy dust. 

People don't generally vote on race relations, the politics of envy or climate change. 

They vote on how rich they feel and who might make them richer. 

Luxon, at least on these numbers, would appear to have the upper hand on that front. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Chris Luxon has something to smile about this morning. Two
sets of data to cheer about, you could say. The
first is the pole. He seems to be, at least
from what I've seen, shaking off that slightly cringe Ceo
Monica that people had been labeling him as, cementing himself
as a man with a plan in charge across most
of the issues and not allowing himself to become distracted

(00:20):
by the inevitable noise that comes with running the ninth floor.
So this latest taxpayer's union carrier pole. The Nats are
up one point four to thirty nine percent. That's an
extra seat for them, no change for act in New
Zealand first grabbing an extra seat that is safe across
the line. The preferred PM numbers are interesting. Chippy's gone
off a cliff. The trend is down, and that's this

(00:42):
result in particular as a shocker. He's down six point
one points to twelve point six percent, Luxen thirty two
point seven percent, So Chippy is now almost within margin
of era, with not Luxen but Chloe on seven point
two percent. The other numbers, the NZII quarterly consensus start

(01:03):
we've been talking about not so great for us, at
least in the short term, a big fat zero GDP
growth in the year to March, which is depressing because
we've had almost two years of recession or close to
it now, and people just want to see the country
firing again. We want to see it spark, and that's
where Luxon will be happy to see this projection two
point two percent, that is growth expected in the year

(01:26):
to March twenty twenty six. And we know what else
is happening in twenty twenty six right an election, it's
humble two point two percent. It's not run away, but
after these past few years, it's like electoral fairy dust.
People don't generally vote on race relations, the politics of envy,
climate change. They vote basically on how rich they feel

(01:48):
and who might make them richer, and Luxeon, at least
on these numbers, would appear to have the upper hand
on that front. For more from News Talk SIB listen
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