Stephen Hoadley: International Relations Analyst on the increasing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon

Israel says it has killed a senior Hezbollah commander as fighting in Lebanon continues.  

The Lebanese health ministry says strikes have killed around 500 people.  

The Israeli Defence Force says its mission is to stop the Iranian-backed group from firing rockets into Israel's north and to push them back from the border.  

International relations analyst Stephen Hoadley told Ryan Bridge he expects air and artillery attacks will continue, and hopefully Hezbollah's rocket attacks on Israel will stop.  

He says that would cause a lull, but a repeat of the cycle of violence is possible in another year or two. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Traders warning Kiwis to
leave Lebanon now if they haven't already. It comes as
the fighting continues between Israel and Hesbila, and more than
five hundred and fifty people, including fifty children, according to
the Lebanese Health Ministry, have died just this week. I'm
joined now by Stephen Holey, retired professor of International Relations.

(00:22):
Good morning, Stephen, thanks for being with me.

Speaker 2 (00:25):
Good morning, Marian.

Speaker 1 (00:26):
Let's start with this attack overnight. Israel claims to have
killed a senior commander, a senior Hesbila commander in charge
of their missile systems. They've dropped two thousand weapons on
fifteen hundred targets inside Lebanon just in the last day.
And what do you make of those developments.

Speaker 2 (00:45):
Well, this is all part of Israel's attempt to stop
the missiles firing into Israel. Israel is fighting an existential
war that means a war for its very existence against
the surrounding Arab hostile Iranian backed opponents that are trying

(01:06):
to eliminate that Israel from the map. So Israel, it
takes the view that these civilian casualties are unfortunate, but
necessary in an all out war against those who would
do Israel harm. Now, I was glad to hear that
you said, according to the Lebanese Ministry of Health about

(01:28):
the five hundred casualties, what you could have also have
said the Hesbelah dominated ministry of health. I've got an
article in front of me from the Washington Post. It
says the Israel's military targeted a school in Gaza. What
it didn't say is that it targeted a Hesbelah command

(01:48):
headquarters that had taken over a school in Gaza. And
this is I think the bias of the news media
that it's easy to report on the casualties, the women
and children, the collapse buildings, the explosions. What is more
difficult to report is what are the reasons behind this?

(02:09):
Why is Israel doing these things? And Israel does have
a point of view that I believe the media are
not presenting as fully as they are presenting the victimhood
of those casualties.

Speaker 1 (02:23):
And as Ntainna who said overnight, anyone who has a
missile in their living room or a rocket and their
garage will not have a home, making the point that
he's not going after Lebanon, He's going after Hesbelah.

Speaker 2 (02:36):
Yeah, a very good point. And also, as you well know,
Israel issues Wardings tells people if they know there's a
Hezbolah facility nearby, a rocket launching facility, a command post,
a cache of weapons, to keep their distance because they're
very likely to be a target of an airstrike. And

(02:58):
that's exactly what Israel is doing. This is within the
guidelines of the laws of war. They're targeting military assets
of Hisbela. They're not targeting civilians. And I think this
is not well appreciated in the way the media is
covering this particular contract.

Speaker 1 (03:17):
But you have to be the attacks on the walkie
talkies and stuff, you're obviously going to hit civilians in
the process, aren't you.

Speaker 2 (03:26):
Now, not at all. The walkie talkies and the hit
pagers were specifically given to Hisbolla operatives.

Speaker 1 (03:34):
Some of them went off in supermarkets. I mean, you
can't stop the children getting the fruit in the aisles
from being hit too, can you.

Speaker 2 (03:41):
Yeah, that's right. And many of the were given by
the operatives to their sons and daughters to play with,
which is against the rules of their own organization. In
the case, a kind of casual corruption of the use
of their assets. And yes there are incidental in casualties,
but again the target, the intent was military assets.

Speaker 1 (04:07):
Will Stephen. Where does this go next? Because there's an
interesting piece in the Wall Street Journal this morning talking
about the fact that Israel won't go on a ground
offensive into Lebanon. They it was basically a draw a
stalemate last time in two thousand and six, and that
there are some pretty intense weaponry on the side of
the Lebanese courtesy of Iran. They won't go in there.

(04:28):
Where does the scene what happens next?

Speaker 2 (04:31):
Well, it depends a little bit on the United States.
The United States is urging calm and negotiations and obviously
urging Israel not to escalate, but at the same time
quietly replenishing Israel's arsenal. And so Israel does have the weapons,
but does it have the manpower, does it have the morale?

(04:52):
The army is tired, their reservist The economy of Israel
is difficult because people are away from their normal profession.
Can Israel sustain a ground offensive, which would be the
most efficient way of moving the Hezbollo rockets back to
the north past the Litani River in accordance with United

(05:14):
Nations Resolution seventeen oh one. But there are doubts that
Israel has the capacity to do that. So I expect
the grounded the air attacks will continue, the artillery attacks
will continue. Hopefully Hisbela will be degraded Israel and the
rocket attacks on Israel will will stop, and consequently there

(05:35):
will be a lull. But it's very possible that in
another year or two we'll see a repeat of this
cycle of violence.

Speaker 1 (05:42):
Yeah, and unfortunately that seems to be a recurring and
common theme. Stephen Hadley, a retired professor of International Relations
with US for more from News Talks ed B listen
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