Ryan Bridge: What will the big issue be for the 2026 election?

Inflation is still the dominant force in global politics, no doubt about it. 

We've got the United States election next month, the Aussies are going to the polls by midway through next year, so are the Canadians, we just had the UK, we've just had France, and inflation rules the roost. 

Bad news for ol' Albanese in Australia. There's a new poll out this morning that has him neck and neck with Dutton and the coalition. 

But here's the really bad part: 44% of Aussies think the economy will worsen in the next six months. 

What's more, Dutton and the coalition are favoured on the economy 38% to 26%. And more people blame the Government for causing inflation, rather than global issues. 

So he has an uphill battle, doesn't he? 

For New Zealand, inflation should be a distant memory by the time we hit 2026 in our next election – it's expected to be inside the target range by Christmas. 

GDP should have picked up, unemployment should have fallen, tourism, agriculture, we've already heard this morning are showing promising signs, but there's always a defining issue in a political campaign, isn't there? 

What will ours be in 2026? 

A smart government will always try to define what that issue is ahead of time and try to control the narrative, control the language around it, control the debate. 

I think the biggest risk for the National Party at this point, this far out I know it is a bit far for predictions, crystal ball gazing, but I think at this stage is probably public service cuts, you know, Dunedin Hospital, public transport, health education, et cetera. 

The reality is probably most of us will give them another go, but it wouldn't hurt them to keep an eye on what comes next. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Inflation is still the dominant force in global politics, no
doubt about it. We've got the US election next month,
the Aussies are going to the polls by midway through
next year, so are the Canadians who just had the UK.
We've just had France, and inflation rules the roost and
bad news for old Elbow in Australia. There's a new
poll out this morning that has him neck and neck

(00:23):
with Dutton and with the Coalition. But here's the bad part,
the really bad part. Forty four percent of Aussies think
the economy will worsen in the next six months. What's more,
Doesn't and the Coalition are favored on the economy thirty
eight percent to twenty six percent, and more people blame
the government for causing inflation rather than global issues. So

(00:46):
he has an uphill battle, doesn't he. For New Zealand,
inflation should be should be a distant memory by the
time we hit twenty twenty six in our next election.
It's expected to be inside the target range by Christmas.
GDP should have picked up, unemployment should have fallen, Tourism,
agriculture we've already heard this morning or showing promising signs,

(01:08):
but There's always a defining issue in a political campaign,
isn't there? What will ours be in twenty twenty six?
Do you think a smart government will always try to
define what that issue is ahead of time and to
control the narrative, control the language around it, control the debate.
I think the biggest risk for the National Party this point,

(01:28):
this far out. I know it is a bit far
for predictions crystal ball gazing, but I think at this
state is probably public service cuts, you know Dunedin Hospital,
public transport, health, education etc. The reality is probably most
of us will give them another go, but it wouldn't
hurt them to keep an eye on what comes next.

(01:50):
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