Brad Olsen: Infometrics Principle Economist on the impact of Trump's success on investors, international markets

Having a clear winner so early in the US Election process could give some certainty for investors. 

Donald Trump is set to return to the White House, having claimed more than the 270 Electoral Votes needed.  

Markets are reacting strongly to the win, the US dollar surging in value, and bitcoin hitting a record high. 

But, Infometrics Principal Economist Brad Olsen told Ryan Bridge, there could still be some nerves and jitters until Trump is sworn in. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Markets are reacting strongly. The Dow has surged, Bitcoin going nuts,
the US dollar is stronger, Brad Olsen's with US bread.
How strong are these movements, They are fairly considerable.

Speaker 2 (00:11):
I mean, if you look at some of the stock
market reactions that we've seen this morning in the US,
I think if they kept it up, they'd be on
the Dow, for example, I think the fifth biggest points
movement in history. But to be fair, they're not the
biggest percentage shift, So I think really what you're seeing
is that, yes, there's definitely a strong market reaction. There's

(00:31):
probably still going to be some volatility in the market
as everyone tries to pick not only today but over
the next couple of weeks and up until the twentieth
of January when President elect Trump is sworn in, what
exactly is going to happen first, Because this is I
think a big challenge for everyone looking at the economic
ramifications of the change in president is what of the

(00:53):
many economic policies is he going to pursue first. Is
it going to be tax changes, Is it going to
be ten tariffs, Is it going to be deregulation? Is
it going to be them all at once? Because there
are quite a lot of options on the table where
they do have very different impacts on quite different parts
of the economy.

Speaker 1 (01:11):
If you're an investor right now in New Zealand looking
at the stock market, should you be paying too much
attention or is this going to fluctuate for the next
couple of months until we get certainty on those things.

Speaker 2 (01:21):
I mean, I think it will fluctuate quite a bit
because of how all of these different trends are playing out,
and I expect Look, if you're a professional investor and
that's your job, then yeah, you'll be paying a lot
of attention to it. If you're an average key we
worried about your Kiwi saber, I don't know if i'd
be immediately reacting right this second. In fact, i'd probably
again just be there's quite a few movements coming through

(01:43):
and if you've already taken the idea that you're happy
enough with a bit more risk in your investments, then
it's probably worth while sort of sticking around to that
and not making any rash decisions. What's also I think
been interesting in some of the trading this morning has
been just how different some of those different parts of
the economy have gone. So you've seen a number of

(02:03):
bank stocks and similar that have increased on the view
that there will be a bit more deregulation in the US.
Number of tech stocks as well that have seen similar trends,
but a number of ev makers as well that have
come back except for Tesla. So again, lots of moving parts,
lots of different elements, big questions as well for the dollars.

Speaker 1 (02:22):
Yeah, interesting you mentioned Tesla. I'll get to Elon Musk
in a few moments and just how much money he
made overnight. Brad Olson Informentric's chief executive and principal economists
with us.

Speaker 2 (02:34):
For more from Early Edition with Ryan Bridge. Listen live
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