Ryan Bridge: When will our economy come out of its hangover?

The US economy is just humming along at the moment, isn't it?

2.8% is their lucky number this morning. 2.8% annualised GDP for the September quarter.

Better than the Eurozone, better than the UK, and much better than New Zealand. 

We're still going backwards.

We went balls to the wall with interest rate hikes post Covid and we were the first to do it. Adrian Orr and the Reserve Bank held higher for longer and the hangover is hitting like a 40 ounce of Smirnoff in the morning.

It's not pretty, is it?

Sure, the rates are coming down and we saw more of that yesterday, but boy, the mess that wrecking ball has left behind.

What's interesting about the Americans, even though their consumer confidence is low, as ours is well, they are still going out and using the credit card to buy stuff.

In other words, the sentiment there isn't matching the reality, which is what we're seeing in the GDP number they announced this morning, which we should envy.

Of course, they're a country that's run on domestic consumption. We run on trade and we haven't been helped by the likes of China and Europe. They're the markets that we must sell to, to make a buck.

But there is a question here for Nicola Willis, now that inflation is beat, how much further will you go with the belt tightening? Is a return to surplus at all costs, at any costs worth it?

She's repeatedly said not. How much does she mean that?

I guess we'll find out when we get the numbers for December on the 17th.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
The US economy is just humming along at the moment,
isn't it. Two point eight percent? As I mentioned earlier
in the program, two point eight percent is their lucky
number this morning. Two point eight percent annualized GDP for
the September quarter, better than the Eurozone, better than the UK,
much better than US. We're still going backwards. Twenty twenty
four has basically been a write off. But then we

(00:21):
went balls to the wall with interest rate hikes post COVID,
and we were the first out the gate to do
it as well. We've held higher for longer, and the
hangover is hitting like a forty ounces Smirnoff in the morning.
It's not pretty, is it. Sure the rates are coming down,
we saw more of that yesterday, but boy, the mess

(00:41):
that that wrecking ball has left behind. What's interesting about
the Americans, even though their consumer confidence was low as
ours has been as well, they would still go out
and use the credit card to buy stuff. In other words,
the sentiment there didn't match the reality, which is what
we're seeing in the GDP number that's been announced this morning,
which should and do envy. Of course, they're a country

(01:03):
that's run on domestic consumption. We run on trade and
we haven't been helped by the likes of China where
there's been the slow down, Europe, etc. There are the
markets that we must sell to to make a buck.
But there is a question here for Nicola Willis, now
that inflation is beat, how much further will you go
with the belt tightening? Is a return to surplus at

(01:23):
all costs, at any costs worth it? She's repeatedly said
not how much? Does she mean that? I guess we'll
find out when we get the HAIFU numbers for December
on the seventeenth, or when the Minister comes on the
show in twenty minutes. We'll ask you then too. For
more from Early Edition with Ryan Bridge. Listen live to
News Talk sat BE from five am weekdays, or follow

(01:46):
the podcast on iHeartRadio.