March 19, 2025 • 34 mins
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
The issues, the interviews, and the inside Early with one
roof to make your property search simple.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
News Dogs B Good morning, Welcome to Early Edition. I'm
Francesca Rudkin filling in for Andrew Dickens this morning. Good
to have you with us. You are most welcome to
contact me any time this morning. Give me a text
on ninety two ninety two. We can email me at
(00:33):
Francesca at newstorgs atb dot co dot NZ. On the
show today, we discuss whether the doctors should be able
to comment on regional issues that could impact public health.
We look at whether it's time to fix that home
loan in for a longer term, and what to expect
from the GDP figures for the final quarter of last year.
Out this morning, have we crawled out of a recession?
Speaker 1 (00:57):
The agenda?
Speaker 2 (01:00):
The US President Donald Trump says his hour long calls
with Zeenensky this morning was very good. The call, which
only just ended, was centered around the call Trump had
with Russian President Vladimir Putin yesterday. Posted on truth social
media account, Trump said, we are very much on track,
as the first time the two have spoken since the
(01:21):
heated exchange at the White House. At the end of
last month. We'll have more with US correspondent Mitch mccannon
later this hour. It is expected New Zealand's GDP will
be out of the Red Stats. New Zealand as releasing
figures for the final quarter of last year at midday.
Herald Business editor at large Liam Dan says he's expecting
growth in last year's fourth quarter because of strong export
(01:44):
markets for Darien meat, but we shouldn't be holding out
for anything massive though. Economists are picking a range of
between zero point three and zero point five percent growth
for the quarter, so that's pretty marginal. The UN have
confirmed one of its workers has been killed and others
injured after a compound in Gaza was damaged on Wednesday.
(02:07):
Head of the UN Office for Project Services wouldn't say
who carried out the strike, but the blast was not
accidental or related to d mining activity. The strike came
after Israel said it was resuming fighting in Gaza following
a two month ceasefire. And of be Loved Face of
(02:33):
film History is hitting the auction block. South Ofby's auction
House has confirmed an original screen use original screen used
model of Et from Stephens Spielberg's nineteen eighty two sci
fi classic will be offered up along with items from
the man who brought the iconic movie character to life,
Carla and Bolby. The et model will be offered with
(02:54):
an estimate of six hundred to nine hundred thousand US dollars.
That's around one to one want five million New Zealand dollars.
If you've got a spare buck.
Speaker 1 (03:05):
Get ahead of the headlines on early edition with one
roof make your property search simple News Talk.
Speaker 2 (03:12):
Said, be so today when you go to work, I
dare you to casually ask one of your colleagues what
do you earn? If you're allowed to? That is, if not,
maybe ask if you were allowed to talk about what
you earned, would you tell me? Reason being is labor.
MP Camilla Belich has a member's bill. It's called the
Employment Relations Amendment Bill, and it's going to target that
(03:32):
clause in your contract stopping you sharing information about you pay.
The idea behind this it's actually good. We want to
make sure that where education, ability and performance is measurably
equal between colleagues, they're paid the same. But I just
don't see people going around and sharing Williing Lilly information
about what they earn. Can we just not that kind
(03:55):
of people. We don't talk about money. We don't share
information like that. Don't want people to know what we
earn as much as we're dying to know what other
people earn. I don't think we should be gagged from
saying what we earn. If you want to, you should
be able to say that. I don't have an issue
with the removal of this clause from contracts, but we're
still not going to spill the beans, are we I'm
(04:17):
not sure how much difference this is going to make.
If we want to close the gender pay gap, then
we actually need to put our big gill pants on
and we need to be more proactive about getting paid
what we're worth. Demand more information from your employer about
the pay bands or steps or whatever system you have
in place. Learn more about what you need to move up,
and be more aggressive about having annual pay reviews, expressing
(04:39):
your goals, pitching your worth by assessing your value on
the open market. There is a lot we can do
aside from gossiping about pay to get better pay. It
is eleven past five. Y're with early edition.
Speaker 1 (04:51):
News and views you trust has done Your day is
early edition with one roof. Make your property search, simple
youth talks.
Speaker 2 (05:01):
Doctors are being told they need permission before commenting on
regional issues that could impact public health. Health Minister Simeon
Brown says he's fed up with the doctors giving advice
on issues like fast food. Executive director of the Association
of Salary Medical specialist Sarah Dalton is with me now,
good morning.
Speaker 3 (05:17):
Sarah, Good morning.
Speaker 2 (05:20):
Is Simon Brown overstepping the mark here?
Speaker 3 (05:23):
I think he is.
Speaker 2 (05:24):
Yeah, what's been the reaction by doctors.
Speaker 3 (05:29):
The real sense of unease I think not just within
the National Public Health Service, but more widely that there's
an attempt to I guess silence doctors prevent them from
properly speaking up, both for issues of public health and
also patient safety. As far as public health goes, it's
a really key component of public health. Physicians and particularly
(05:53):
medical offices of health jobs to speak to issues of
broader public well being, and the Minister suggesting that they
confine themselves to immunizations is very narrow view and is wrong.
You know, there are lots of legislative powers that medical
offices of health have. I think if the Minister is
(06:14):
concerned about those who needs to work through the proper
parliamentary processes.
Speaker 2 (06:19):
He's saying, any advice needs to be signed off at
a national level. Is this even practical?
Speaker 3 (06:25):
Well, it flies in the face of certainly the direction
that Minister Reti was taking before him, of trying to
devolve back to local decision making across de fut To order.
That was very much an argument that was being put
and that, you know, the idea that taking a national
approach under to fut To Order was the wrong way
(06:45):
to go. Soon for regions have been established and under
that the districts remain and seemingly the PIY order legislation
talks about localities and empowering people for local decision making
that suited the local context. So it would be really
nice to know consistently what this government actually wants, what
they're going to support. And I think local people understand
(07:09):
that what is right for in Chicago may not be
right for West Coast or the chie Cutter. So I think,
you know, we need to we need to be sensible here,
but we also need to respect the significant training and
also responsibilities that a number of our senior doctors hold
under legislation. Let them get on with their work, because.
Speaker 2 (07:28):
Do doctors actually have a duty to advise on things
like fast food.
Speaker 3 (07:33):
Yeah, they do. So that's a core component. You know,
medical public health is in some respect about the social
and commercial determinants of health. You know, their patients, if
you like, is the whole populations of whole communities as
wide as the whole of New Zealand. That's why you know,
immunizations is an easy example to understand that if enough
(07:56):
people get immunized, that's a health prevention activity. People are
less likely to be infected if in setious disease arrives, right,
and so it helps to prevent against that. People don't
always see as clearly the widest social harms that can
be caused, for example, about access to you know, alcohol, tobacco,
(08:17):
fast food. They absolutely have an impact on people's health
and well being. And if where you live you have
ready access to those things and you can't afford to
buy healthier food, that is also going to have an
impact at a community level on people's health and well being.
So doctors do have an obligation, based on evidence what
(08:39):
we know, to talk about those things.
Speaker 2 (08:42):
If doctors aren't giving the advice, who do we turn to.
Speaker 3 (08:45):
That's a very good question. Isn't it. I don't know.
It's a little early in the days. I mean to
give you a proper, a proper answer on that, but
I think you know. The point is, we have a
trained and qualified cohort of professionals who can give us
that information. Why would we not use it?
Speaker 2 (09:06):
So is there a plan to avoid the overreach?
Speaker 3 (09:08):
Hair Sarah, Well, we will keep supporting our members to
speak out about what the evidence says and about what
is the right thing to do. We certainly will continue
to support them to speak out for patient safety because
I think that is absolutely critical and that is what
the people of New Zealand want.
Speaker 2 (09:28):
Sarah Dalton, thank you for joining me this morning. Appreciate
that was the executive director of the Association of Salaried
Medical Specialists. Up next, home loan rates are coming down,
so is it time to fix for longer? We're going
to talk about that next. It's eighteen past five.
Speaker 1 (09:44):
Really addition, with one roof make your property search simple,
News Dog said.
Speaker 2 (09:49):
Be five twenty core logic as forecasting borrowers will fix
the longer as mortgage rates come down. Ninety percent of
home loans we're floating or fixed for less than a
year in January. But as rates get more affordable, homeowners
are fixing for longer. Call Logic chief property economist Calvin
Davidson is with us now, Good morning, Calvin, Good morning.
(10:09):
So you're seeing evidence of this that people are fixing
for longer.
Speaker 4 (10:13):
Yeah, it's anecdotal at this point. We don't actually have
the hard figures on it you get. I'm expecting in
a couple of weeks we get February's data from the
Reserve Bank, I'd expect that will probably start to show
that trend, because, of course, in February we saw some
pretty you know, pretty intense competition re emerge that those
two and three year horizons, those fixed rates, the Bank's
(10:35):
really got competitive for those rates in February. So once
we get their data, I think we'll see it in
the facts. But right now, saying anecdotically, hearing from people
that those two and three year rates are starting to
get more popular again.
Speaker 2 (10:48):
So when do you expect we will see a solid
switch to longer fixing.
Speaker 4 (10:53):
Well, I mean, I think it could happen fairly quickly.
And once you once you're start to get those two
and three year rates below five percent, that's pretty appealing,
and particularly with the uncertainty around the world with various things,
people might just be starting and sinking. Okay, I wouldn't
mind some certainty over that two or three year period,
So I mean, no guarantees. We've seen a lot of
(11:13):
popularity for those shorter term flixes lately and may not
shift overnight, but you can certainly see the appeal of
those rates below five percent, the.
Speaker 2 (11:23):
Low rates, the competition. What impact will this have on
the property market.
Speaker 4 (11:28):
I mean, well, we're already seeing the property market more
generally start to turn around. It's fairly slow progress, and
it's been a pretty deep downturn. It's been quite prolonged.
But we've seen before the impact that lower mortgage rates
can have, and I think it's starting to come through now.
We've seen sales rising for probably a year or so.
It's been slow and from a low level, but sales
(11:49):
are rising, and we saw house prices starting to take
up again in February. So I think we're seeing that
evidence now. But the game is there's probably reason for
a restraint because at the same time, there's still a
lot of less things. The economy are still a bit weak.
There's restraint in terms of say, debt to income ratio
restrictions from the reserve banks. So there's support effectors, but
(12:12):
also things that are restraining the market too.
Speaker 2 (12:15):
Is it benefiting or encouraging investors.
Speaker 4 (12:18):
Yeah, we're definitely seeing investors coming back. That's been a
trend for probably about nine months now. They reached to
tros in terms of their bucket share at least about
sort of April May last year, and then since then
the tax rules had gone a little bit easier for investors,
and of course mortgage rates have come down, so that's
really helping to reduce those top ups that most investors
(12:41):
would require for a new rental purchase, so in other words,
topping up the cash flow from other sources of income.
As mortgage rates come down, those top ups come down,
and so yeah, there's evidence that investors are coming back
as those cash flowers improve. So I think probably a
busier year for investors this year too.
Speaker 2 (13:01):
Calvin, is this a sign that interest rates are about
as low as they're going to get for the next
few years?
Speaker 4 (13:07):
Well, a million dollar question again, Yeah, and you know,
there's no financial advice or anything here, but I mean
we've I think we probably have seen the biggest falls
and mortgage traits in his face that they've come down
pretty sharply in a recently short period of time, and
they're not they're very unlikely to go back to those
those COVID levels. So yeah, I mean, once we start
(13:28):
to get rates in that four and a half to
five percent kind of range, which is what we've got now,
you'd have to think that's getting fairly close to the bottoms.
So yeah, so big decisions for people.
Speaker 2 (13:41):
Thank you, Calvin, appreciate your time this morning. That was
Calvin Davidson, Core Logic, Chief Property Economist, twenty four past.
Speaker 1 (13:47):
Five, the early edition for All the Show podcast on
iHeartRadio powered by News Talks at Me.
Speaker 2 (13:54):
It is twenty six past five. You're with early edition, Jee,
we've gone stadium man here in Auckland. We already had
seven pretty substantial stadiums ranging from four thousand person capacity
to fifty thousand, spread across the city from the north
short amount Eden Penrose to Manco, not including other sporting
and event spaces. But we can't stop suggesting we build
more while we wait for Auckland councilors to ponder feasibility
(14:18):
studies done by Eden Park in the proposed new waterfront
stadium in Key Park and announce who will go on
to win the title of Auckland's main stadium. Another stadium
is being pitched, this time for Western Springs, So Western
Springs Speedway has its final event on Saturday night. Although
we've heard that before and now Auckland Council is interested
in what to do with this valuable inner city site.
(14:40):
This really is an exciting opportunity, especially after years of
kafuffle around the speedway. Auckland might not need another entertainment
or sporting venue, but they are really nice to have,
especially when someone else is coughing up the money for them.
So Auckland has to ask itself what facilities do we need,
what would the inner city benefit from and can these
new facilit be used by as many teams and individuals
(15:02):
as possible. Real estate this valuable needs to be well
utilized year round. That's why quite like the proposal from
the team behind Auckland FC. The proposal for their new
facility features a twelve thousand, five hundred seeded stadium, covered
basketball courts and paddle courts. It's champion and backed by
Stephen Adams, Ali Williams, Anna Mowbray and billionaire football owners
(15:25):
Bill Foley and Bennett Rosenthal. The group of targeted football,
basketball and paddle because they are the fastest growing sports
in the world but lack infrastructure in Auckland, so they're
not just meeting a community need. It's also going to
be the home of Auckland FC, signaling this team is
a long term commitment, so that they're all good things.
(15:45):
I mean, I would observe things have gone pretty well
at go Media Stadium for Auckland FC this season, but
maybe not everyone likes traveling to Penrose. Maybe it's felt
an inner city location near hospo hubs will help sustain
interest in the team. Yes, my tongue is on my cheek.
According to the seen the proposal, this sporting facility would
be built at zero cost to the right player. The
only downside is the existing occupants, the Pontsibly Rugby Club
(16:07):
would need to move and of course it need to
be supported to do this. There are two more proposals.
The Pontsib Rugby Club wants to turn it into a
bigger venue and the entertainment group wants to turn it
into a multipurpose entertainment and community sports venue, but we
yet to hear the details on those proposals. In fact,
there is a lot of information were yet to see.
But fingers crossed this process will move faster than the
(16:29):
decision around the speedway. Whatever plans are presented, Remember the
locals are a vocal and determined lot. Win them over
and you might just have a chance. So do you
love it? Do you say? Bring it on? Have you
been dry dying to try paddle and you're wondering what
paddle is? It's that game that all the F one
(16:50):
players play. You know, It's kind of like tennis, but
the balls are allowed to hit the wall and slightly
different racket and a slightly different ball. I sort of
sound like I'm not I'm talking about right. I'm all
in for new facilities. I think it'll be a tough
choice on the Pope Ponts and be Rugby Club, but
they're the only ones with the plan and no money
to pay for it. And as I said, it's a
nice to have, not a need. So keen to hear
(17:12):
from you ninety two ninety two what would you like
to see done with the Western Springs? You're with early edition?
We can love love things that we know.
Speaker 4 (17:24):
We can go forever till you are listen it out.
Speaker 1 (17:29):
The news you need this morning and the in depth
analysis early edition with one roof make your property search simple.
News Talk said, be you.
Speaker 3 (17:38):
Are men because I'm feeling messy.
Speaker 4 (17:43):
Ectly you told me get.
Speaker 5 (17:45):
A job and your love.
Speaker 2 (17:49):
Good morning. This is early edition on news Talks. There'd
be I'm franchise because I've been filling in for Andrew today.
Thank you for being with us, and the next half
are we head to the US. A call has taken
place early this morning, our time, between and Trump, so
we're going to get the latest on that, and we're
really hoping for good news today that New Zealand has
crawled its way out of a recession. We're going to
get the queue four GDP data this morning. Most of
(18:10):
the ex books think we have, but we should be
very reserved with our expectations. It looks like economic recovery
is going to be a slow grind, so we're going
to cover this off before the end of the hour. Hey,
thanks so much for your feedback. Most of you seem
to think that a twelve five hundred seated stadium is
far too small for Auckland FC because they've been getting
(18:32):
great crowds out at go Media Stadium, so a lot
of comments on the fact that that's not too big.
Here's the thing. I presume they've worked out what size
stadium they can fit as well as having those other facilities.
And I do think it is important that they are
offering other facilities, not just another stadium, because you might
as well just stay at use one of the many
other stadiums we have. So I like the fact that
(18:52):
offering other options and other text degrees. I like the
idea of a new, fully purpose stadium with further sports
and mind we actually need rather than the same old
and another text just when anything but housing keep with
the feedback coming. You can text on ninety two ninety
two Does that be right? Let's head around the country
(19:16):
and joining us from Dunedin is Callum Proctor, Good morning, Callum.
I believe Contact Energy is to fight back after Southland
wind Farm has been rejected.
Speaker 6 (19:25):
Yes, the Fast Track Consenting Panels shot down their proposal
on Tuesday. They said it wasn't satisfied that adverse effects
on indigenous plants and animals could be properly mitigated. Look,
this is a one billion dollar project. Local councils and
e WE had approved it, but Forest and Bird and
some local and landowners are opposed to it. Contact Boss
(19:47):
Mike Fuge says the rejection will add millions of dollars
and costs years of delays, and it sends the message
that New Zealand is not open for business. The company
will appeal or seek a consent under the new fast
track consent process.
Speaker 2 (20:00):
Needin's weather column.
Speaker 6 (20:01):
Yep, fine today morning and evening cloud nor easterly develops
the high today twenty.
Speaker 2 (20:05):
Sounds lovely, Thank you so much. Claire Sherwood is in
christ yet, Good morning Claire. Now what is this about
teachers being stabbed at a school?
Speaker 7 (20:13):
Yes, Francesca look the Ministry of Educations offering support to
a christ Church school after a student attacked two teachers
yesterday with a pair of scissors. Emergency services were called
to at nue's Highata Community campus at around two in
the afternoon. Principal Peggy Burrows says the assault did happen
in front of a number of students and staff. That's
(20:33):
been confirmed by parents who say children as young as
seven eighty nine saw it all unfolding. The principal says
the two teachers did receive some medical attention but didn't
need hospital. They recovering well. They won't be back at
school for the rest of this week at least police Meanwhile,
I'm making inquiries into the incident.
Speaker 2 (20:51):
Goodness May and the weather today.
Speaker 7 (20:53):
Mostly cloudy with Sampachi morning drizzle, then fine spouls, increasing
northeasterlies and a high of nineteen.
Speaker 2 (20:59):
Thank you. Max Toole is in Wellington and Max Wellington
Facebook page is up for sale.
Speaker 5 (21:06):
Yeah sounds a little odd, doesn't it. This is vic Deals,
a group created in twenty twelve. It operates as a
sort of community notice board where residents can list items
for sale, advertise their businesses, debate local issues, post emergency
updates when they need to from around the city. It
is a business. It contains advertising. It's got nearly a
quarter of a million followers two and a half million
(21:29):
page views per month. Owner Charlie Ward calls it a
modern and organic way to reach customers for businesses. Ward himself,
by the way twenty two, but he's listed it for sale.
Facebook pages incidentally still considered effective in a number of ways.
Former Mayor Justin Lester very recently turned his mayoral page
into a Wellington community Facebook page called Wellington Alive, which
(21:52):
seemed to be a testing ground for him to perhaps
decide whether to run again. Wellington Live is another one.
The owner there is running for mayor a platform for
a platform.
Speaker 2 (22:03):
Max, I do feel a little bit of a snigger
there when you say Facebook, just a little Wellington's we're the.
Speaker 5 (22:10):
Today, sure, mostly cloudy with the odd shower seventeen the
high Central.
Speaker 2 (22:15):
Thank you so much and never ritty Manho was in
the Auckland studio.
Speaker 8 (22:17):
Are you awake?
Speaker 2 (22:18):
You're with us? Hang on, that's all right, that's just
the producer. We're on to it now.
Speaker 9 (22:24):
She probably thought I was sitting in the other seat.
Speaker 2 (22:26):
Good morning, good morning. How you have to say you're
looking very tenned am? I? Yes?
Speaker 9 (22:31):
Is that natural? Or is it fake?
Speaker 10 (22:33):
Fake?
Speaker 2 (22:34):
Oh? Yeah, goods out of a bottle.
Speaker 9 (22:37):
I must drie one of those.
Speaker 2 (22:38):
Yeah, no, I think this is an Australian glow I
have on here out of a bottle.
Speaker 9 (22:44):
All right, I'll take bick my compliment then, O oh no, no,
it's very good, very good.
Speaker 2 (22:50):
Got up early for that compliment, got held up by
by a house this morning on the way to work.
You don't say that very often. It was a house moving.
Speaker 5 (23:00):
Oh my goodness.
Speaker 2 (23:00):
Those trucks they do just literally go down the middle
of the road. They do where we're coming from. This
was on Great South Throat heading towards Green Lane. So
they were fascinating.
Speaker 9 (23:09):
Oh okay, so it took you about an hour to
get you because they go and good on them because
they've got to be safe.
Speaker 2 (23:13):
Instead of thirteen Oh yeah, no, anyway, hey, look let's
get on with us.
Speaker 9 (23:17):
Yes, so look the Minister of Auckland now he is
defending this anti crime fund being solely targeted for Auckland CBD.
Now Sime and Brown yesterday if you missed the sea
and now it's one point three million dollars, it's going
to go towards improved security measures across the city center. Now,
Brown says, the CBD's got to go to the CBD
because it's the gateway for visitors and it's got the
(23:37):
highest concentration of crime in the city. But as you
can imagine, other areas are not happy about this. Monaco
counselor Law two fully says, look, her area has got
the second highest concentration needs and that needs, you know,
to help tackle crime as well. So she's just come
out and see there's more to Auckland than the CBD.
But I suppose I've got to prioritize it. Thought they.
Speaker 2 (23:58):
She's got a point though with it.
Speaker 9 (24:00):
Today mainly fine apart from this morning. Cloud twenty four
is the high today, another day for a good ten.
Speaker 2 (24:06):
Thank you so much for joining us, Nava. Where would
we we without you? Our next we're off the UIs.
Mitch McCann is with us. It is sixteen to.
Speaker 1 (24:15):
Six International correspondence with Ends and Eye Insurance, Peace of
mind for New Zealand business.
Speaker 2 (24:23):
It is quarter to six and Mitch McCann from the
UIs joins me.
Speaker 8 (24:26):
Now, Good morning, Mitch, Good morning Francesca. How are you good?
Speaker 2 (24:29):
Thank you? So Zelenski and Trump have talked over the
phone this morning. What do you know about the call?
Speaker 8 (24:34):
Yeah, they spoke in the last couple of hours. Donald
Trump put a social media statement out saying that the
much of the discussion was based on the call Trump
had with Vladimir Putin yesterday in order to align both
Russia and Ukraine, and he added that we are very
much on track now. The White House is going to
put more information about this call with Zelenski out in
the coming hours. We do know Vladimir Zelenski will want
(24:56):
to know exactly what Vladimir Putin told Donald Trump yes
today their phone call when Putin agreed to this limited
cease fire. But we know obviously there is a lot
of distrust on zelensky side towards Russia. He believes that
he's already violated this limited seas fire and if there
is one going forward, he wants the US to monitor
(25:16):
it so they can keep an eye on the Russian
So we'll find out more about what was said in
that phone call in the next hour or so.
Speaker 2 (25:22):
And hopefully we'll find out more about how we're going
to move forward, right, Yeah, that's right.
Speaker 8 (25:26):
And we know that the officials from the US and
Russia are going to be meeting in Saudi Arabia next
Monday and Tuesday to discuss the technical details of a
partial cease fire. Things are looking good going forward, but
as we know with what we've seen in other parts
of the world, these things can fall apart very quickly.
Speaker 2 (25:44):
Match It's also been reported the Pentagon is looking to
significantly reduce its workforce.
Speaker 8 (25:50):
Yeah, this is the latest example of the US government
using this Department of Government Efficiency being run by Elon
Musk to cut jobs, cut tens of thousands of jobs
in the The latest agency is the Department of Defense,
and it's reported that up to sixty thousand civilian jobs
could be going there. But it comes at a bit
(26:10):
of a messy time because two judges have actually ordered
that some of the layoffs are illegal. Now the White
House is having to try and re hire twenty five
thousand of these people it already fired, so it's getting messy.
But the layoffs certainly do continue as they're on their
mission to shrink the size of the government.
Speaker 2 (26:28):
Thank you so much, mtch appreciate your time this morning.
Of course, my costing breakfast will be across this Zelensky
Trump conversation. As Mitch said, we've only had limited details
about it, and I'm sure that they'll be covering whatever
else is released on that throughout the morning. It is
eleven to.
Speaker 1 (26:45):
Six zibby right.
Speaker 2 (26:49):
It's hoped we'll get confirmation today that New Zealand is
crawling out of its recession. The GDP number for Q
four last year is out this morning. Most economists are
picking a rise between point three and point five percent,
but that comes off the back of a one point
one percent and one percent drop in Q three and
Q two last year asb chief economist, and it toughly
(27:11):
is with us.
Speaker 1 (27:12):
Now.
Speaker 2 (27:12):
Good morning, Nick, thanks for your time.
Speaker 10 (27:14):
Good morning.
Speaker 2 (27:15):
What numbers are you picking?
Speaker 10 (27:17):
We are picking a point three percent lift and that's
the same as the Reserve Bank, So I think you
had a good analogy there. It is crawling, particularly when
you put in that context of just how much things
slowed down during middle parts of last year.
Speaker 2 (27:30):
So the fact that we're going to be out of
a technical recession, that's good news, but this growth is
still pretty anemic, right.
Speaker 10 (27:37):
It is going to be a gradual recovery. I think
what we need to remember is that interest rates have
been falling for a little bit, but it hasn't been
until probably that fourth quarter of last year where we
started to see the average mortgage rate that people were
paying start to decline and start to actually impact on
people's cash flows. So we do see that we'll be
(27:57):
seeing those glimmers of light and consume the spending coming through,
which is a really really good start signaling recovery. But
we are really being saved over their quarter, assuming that
we do have a positive number by things like agriculture
where we had really great weather in the dairy season
in particular, had a really strong lift into Christmas.
Speaker 2 (28:17):
Yes, So as you're taking a look at the sectors
which are on the improve, which ones do you think
we'll have given it a boost and which ones would
you sort of hope to see better performance from going forward.
Speaker 10 (28:30):
Where we've seen some good time sort of coming through
it is dairy in the meat sector, so strong sort
of meat production as well, and despite what's happening in
the US for the time being anyway, they haven't given
up eating handburgers, which has really helped a lot. So
that's been good. That retail sector through spending, also being
helped by tourism, so expect those aspects to come through
(28:53):
and help us out. Where things are still looking quite
soggy is in construction, so we're still coming out of
the tail end of the impacts of the housing market
and more general properties slow down, so that sector really
struggling still in the short term.
Speaker 2 (29:07):
You mentioned the glimmers. We all like a glimmer. How
long do you think it will take the country to
bounce back from the major drops last year, Are we
going to see a boom or much more of a
slow burn.
Speaker 10 (29:19):
It's I think much more realistic if we look at
this as being a slow burn. It's going to be
I think a bit of a challenge to suddenly see
the economy rebound and recover two percent than the conditions
that we're facing. But look where we've got some good
tailwinds is those low interest rates gradually working their way
through this year, the good payouts that the farmers are getting,
the tourism sector picking up or working their way through.
(29:42):
And it's not obviously just about a dairy story. That
meets story as well starting to shine through. So look
at it as gradual recovery rather than sharp rebound. We're
going back to more normal interest rates sessions rather than
dropping to some really low level where we all can't
afford not to borrow.
Speaker 2 (29:58):
Zer point three percent rise enough for the government to
convince us things are turning around.
Speaker 10 (30:04):
Look, it's a really good sign if we get a
positive number that we are starting to crawl our way
out of what's been a really challenging time. But look,
the challenges is that with growth being relatively modest, we're
not going to be suddenly getting back to low levels
of unemployment that quickly as well. And look, the general
challenges that the government faces are still around getting productivity
(30:28):
back up after a number of years of it been
very very weak, and really focusing on what it can
do to enable growth, bring back the confidence, get people
making decisions that help the economies back up.
Speaker 2 (30:43):
I was going to ask you what the risks are
for the economy to continue to grow.
Speaker 10 (30:50):
Where we are most vulnerable and most countries are at
the moment is what's happening globally at the moment, mainly
around Donald Trump. And there's a few areas where that's
impact just simply all the going back and forth on
whether there's the tariff or not. The fact that he
is also hitting a lot of his allies with tariffs
(31:12):
is creating a lot of uncertainty, and certainty is not
great for making clear decisions. So there is that risk
to global growth of it being slowed by both the uncertainty.
And that's even before you get into the drag that
we could have if we get some quite widespread tariffs.
And we are also going to have to be mindful
when we roll round into April and we get our
report card on our trade practices, whether or not we
(31:34):
get directly impacted by tariffs as well. So biggest risks
seem to be coming from globally, whereas domestically, with interest
rates coming down, it's really a matter of time until
they start to work through and improve the economy locally.
Speaker 2 (31:48):
So that Keith Q four numbers out at mid day.
Speaker 10 (31:50):
Nick ten forty five is when we get those releases
coming through. So everybody tune into the radio ten forty five.
Speaker 2 (32:00):
Order number it exciting day. Thank you so much, Nick Toushley,
their ASV chief economist. It is six to six. I've
got a surprise for you. Next you're with Early Edition.
Speaker 1 (32:11):
The first word on the news of the day Early
Edition where one roof will make your property search simple.
The news talks that'd.
Speaker 2 (32:19):
Be it is four to six. Look he probably heard
in the news we've been talking about stadiums this morning,
and something actually very special happened at Go Media Stadium
in Auckland last night, and that is that Sam Ruth
became New Zealand's became the youngest person in history to
break the four minute mile barrier. He's a fifteen year
old from Totonger, he's an incredible talent. But not only
(32:40):
was that pretty special, but also Ben Wall broke the
mark for the first time in three minutes and fifty
nine seconds. And the other really special thing about it
was that these two guys were paced by Olympian Sam Tanner,
who won the race. But the look on his face
when he realized that the three of them had all
come in, you know, under four minutes, was just wonderful. Anyway,
(33:03):
you know, there's going to be I know that a
lot of people are we expecting great things from Sam Ruth.
I hope he just feels his own way, takes his
time and just enjoys running. Still now, I said I
had a surprise for you this morning, and he has
just walked into the studio this morning. We are joined
by Ryan Bridge, who got a rather late call up.
(33:23):
I did, good morning, but I'm very grateful has turned up.
Speaker 9 (33:26):
I'm here.
Speaker 5 (33:27):
I'm here, so Mike is unwell today.
Speaker 6 (33:30):
I'm going to be filling in for Mike throughout the morning,
so I look forward to chatting to you where I'm
going to chat to Sam Ruth.
Speaker 2 (33:35):
Actually are you?
Speaker 1 (33:36):
He's a man on a mission.
Speaker 2 (33:37):
Give him a love, give him congratulations, he's amazing. So
Ryan Bridge is going to be with you. I'll be
back tomorrow morning. Have a great day.
Speaker 1 (33:53):
For more from Early Edition with Ryan Bridge, Listen live
to news talks he'd be from five am weekdays, or
of the podcast on iHeartRadio.
The issues, the interviews, and the inside Early with one
roof to make your property search simple.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
News Dogs B Good morning, Welcome to Early Edition. I'm
Francesca Rudkin filling in for Andrew Dickens this morning. Good
to have you with us. You are most welcome to
contact me any time this morning. Give me a text
on ninety two ninety two. We can email me at
(00:33):
Francesca at newstorgs atb dot co dot NZ. On the
show today, we discuss whether the doctors should be able
to comment on regional issues that could impact public health.
We look at whether it's time to fix that home
loan in for a longer term, and what to expect
from the GDP figures for the final quarter of last year.
Out this morning, have we crawled out of a recession?
Speaker 1 (00:57):
The agenda?
Speaker 2 (01:00):
The US President Donald Trump says his hour long calls
with Zeenensky this morning was very good. The call, which
only just ended, was centered around the call Trump had
with Russian President Vladimir Putin yesterday. Posted on truth social
media account, Trump said, we are very much on track,
as the first time the two have spoken since the
(01:21):
heated exchange at the White House. At the end of
last month. We'll have more with US correspondent Mitch mccannon
later this hour. It is expected New Zealand's GDP will
be out of the Red Stats. New Zealand as releasing
figures for the final quarter of last year at midday.
Herald Business editor at large Liam Dan says he's expecting
growth in last year's fourth quarter because of strong export
(01:44):
markets for Darien meat, but we shouldn't be holding out
for anything massive though. Economists are picking a range of
between zero point three and zero point five percent growth
for the quarter, so that's pretty marginal. The UN have
confirmed one of its workers has been killed and others
injured after a compound in Gaza was damaged on Wednesday.
(02:07):
Head of the UN Office for Project Services wouldn't say
who carried out the strike, but the blast was not
accidental or related to d mining activity. The strike came
after Israel said it was resuming fighting in Gaza following
a two month ceasefire. And of be Loved Face of
(02:33):
film History is hitting the auction block. South Ofby's auction
House has confirmed an original screen use original screen used
model of Et from Stephens Spielberg's nineteen eighty two sci
fi classic will be offered up along with items from
the man who brought the iconic movie character to life,
Carla and Bolby. The et model will be offered with
(02:54):
an estimate of six hundred to nine hundred thousand US dollars.
That's around one to one want five million New Zealand dollars.
If you've got a spare buck.
Speaker 1 (03:05):
Get ahead of the headlines on early edition with one
roof make your property search simple News Talk.
Speaker 2 (03:12):
Said, be so today when you go to work, I
dare you to casually ask one of your colleagues what
do you earn? If you're allowed to? That is, if not,
maybe ask if you were allowed to talk about what
you earned, would you tell me? Reason being is labor.
MP Camilla Belich has a member's bill. It's called the
Employment Relations Amendment Bill, and it's going to target that
(03:32):
clause in your contract stopping you sharing information about you pay.
The idea behind this it's actually good. We want to
make sure that where education, ability and performance is measurably
equal between colleagues, they're paid the same. But I just
don't see people going around and sharing Williing Lilly information
about what they earn. Can we just not that kind
(03:55):
of people. We don't talk about money. We don't share
information like that. Don't want people to know what we
earn as much as we're dying to know what other
people earn. I don't think we should be gagged from
saying what we earn. If you want to, you should
be able to say that. I don't have an issue
with the removal of this clause from contracts, but we're
still not going to spill the beans, are we I'm
(04:17):
not sure how much difference this is going to make.
If we want to close the gender pay gap, then
we actually need to put our big gill pants on
and we need to be more proactive about getting paid
what we're worth. Demand more information from your employer about
the pay bands or steps or whatever system you have
in place. Learn more about what you need to move up,
and be more aggressive about having annual pay reviews, expressing
(04:39):
your goals, pitching your worth by assessing your value on
the open market. There is a lot we can do
aside from gossiping about pay to get better pay. It
is eleven past five. Y're with early edition.
Speaker 1 (04:51):
News and views you trust has done Your day is
early edition with one roof. Make your property search, simple
youth talks.
Speaker 2 (05:01):
Doctors are being told they need permission before commenting on
regional issues that could impact public health. Health Minister Simeon
Brown says he's fed up with the doctors giving advice
on issues like fast food. Executive director of the Association
of Salary Medical specialist Sarah Dalton is with me now,
good morning.
Speaker 3 (05:17):
Sarah, Good morning.
Speaker 2 (05:20):
Is Simon Brown overstepping the mark here?
Speaker 3 (05:23):
I think he is.
Speaker 2 (05:24):
Yeah, what's been the reaction by doctors.
Speaker 3 (05:29):
The real sense of unease I think not just within
the National Public Health Service, but more widely that there's
an attempt to I guess silence doctors prevent them from
properly speaking up, both for issues of public health and
also patient safety. As far as public health goes, it's
a really key component of public health. Physicians and particularly
(05:53):
medical offices of health jobs to speak to issues of
broader public well being, and the Minister suggesting that they
confine themselves to immunizations is very narrow view and is wrong.
You know, there are lots of legislative powers that medical
offices of health have. I think if the Minister is
(06:14):
concerned about those who needs to work through the proper
parliamentary processes.
Speaker 2 (06:19):
He's saying, any advice needs to be signed off at
a national level. Is this even practical?
Speaker 3 (06:25):
Well, it flies in the face of certainly the direction
that Minister Reti was taking before him, of trying to
devolve back to local decision making across de fut To order.
That was very much an argument that was being put
and that, you know, the idea that taking a national
approach under to fut To Order was the wrong way
(06:45):
to go. Soon for regions have been established and under
that the districts remain and seemingly the PIY order legislation
talks about localities and empowering people for local decision making
that suited the local context. So it would be really
nice to know consistently what this government actually wants, what
they're going to support. And I think local people understand
(07:09):
that what is right for in Chicago may not be
right for West Coast or the chie Cutter. So I think,
you know, we need to we need to be sensible here,
but we also need to respect the significant training and
also responsibilities that a number of our senior doctors hold
under legislation. Let them get on with their work, because.
Speaker 2 (07:28):
Do doctors actually have a duty to advise on things
like fast food.
Speaker 3 (07:33):
Yeah, they do. So that's a core component. You know,
medical public health is in some respect about the social
and commercial determinants of health. You know, their patients, if
you like, is the whole populations of whole communities as
wide as the whole of New Zealand. That's why you know,
immunizations is an easy example to understand that if enough
(07:56):
people get immunized, that's a health prevention activity. People are
less likely to be infected if in setious disease arrives, right,
and so it helps to prevent against that. People don't
always see as clearly the widest social harms that can
be caused, for example, about access to you know, alcohol, tobacco,
(08:17):
fast food. They absolutely have an impact on people's health
and well being. And if where you live you have
ready access to those things and you can't afford to
buy healthier food, that is also going to have an
impact at a community level on people's health and well being.
So doctors do have an obligation, based on evidence what
(08:39):
we know, to talk about those things.
Speaker 2 (08:42):
If doctors aren't giving the advice, who do we turn to.
Speaker 3 (08:45):
That's a very good question. Isn't it. I don't know.
It's a little early in the days. I mean to
give you a proper, a proper answer on that, but
I think you know. The point is, we have a
trained and qualified cohort of professionals who can give us
that information. Why would we not use it?
Speaker 2 (09:06):
So is there a plan to avoid the overreach?
Speaker 3 (09:08):
Hair Sarah, Well, we will keep supporting our members to
speak out about what the evidence says and about what
is the right thing to do. We certainly will continue
to support them to speak out for patient safety because
I think that is absolutely critical and that is what
the people of New Zealand want.
Speaker 2 (09:28):
Sarah Dalton, thank you for joining me this morning. Appreciate
that was the executive director of the Association of Salaried
Medical Specialists. Up next, home loan rates are coming down,
so is it time to fix for longer? We're going
to talk about that next. It's eighteen past five.
Speaker 1 (09:44):
Really addition, with one roof make your property search simple,
News Dog said.
Speaker 2 (09:49):
Be five twenty core logic as forecasting borrowers will fix
the longer as mortgage rates come down. Ninety percent of
home loans we're floating or fixed for less than a
year in January. But as rates get more affordable, homeowners
are fixing for longer. Call Logic chief property economist Calvin
Davidson is with us now, Good morning, Calvin, Good morning.
(10:09):
So you're seeing evidence of this that people are fixing
for longer.
Speaker 4 (10:13):
Yeah, it's anecdotal at this point. We don't actually have
the hard figures on it you get. I'm expecting in
a couple of weeks we get February's data from the
Reserve Bank, I'd expect that will probably start to show
that trend, because, of course, in February we saw some
pretty you know, pretty intense competition re emerge that those
two and three year horizons, those fixed rates, the Bank's
(10:35):
really got competitive for those rates in February. So once
we get their data, I think we'll see it in
the facts. But right now, saying anecdotically, hearing from people
that those two and three year rates are starting to
get more popular again.
Speaker 2 (10:48):
So when do you expect we will see a solid
switch to longer fixing.
Speaker 4 (10:53):
Well, I mean, I think it could happen fairly quickly.
And once you once you're start to get those two
and three year rates below five percent, that's pretty appealing,
and particularly with the uncertainty around the world with various things,
people might just be starting and sinking. Okay, I wouldn't
mind some certainty over that two or three year period,
So I mean, no guarantees. We've seen a lot of
(11:13):
popularity for those shorter term flixes lately and may not
shift overnight, but you can certainly see the appeal of
those rates below five percent, the.
Speaker 2 (11:23):
Low rates, the competition. What impact will this have on
the property market.
Speaker 4 (11:28):
I mean, well, we're already seeing the property market more
generally start to turn around. It's fairly slow progress, and
it's been a pretty deep downturn. It's been quite prolonged.
But we've seen before the impact that lower mortgage rates
can have, and I think it's starting to come through now.
We've seen sales rising for probably a year or so.
It's been slow and from a low level, but sales
(11:49):
are rising, and we saw house prices starting to take
up again in February. So I think we're seeing that
evidence now. But the game is there's probably reason for
a restraint because at the same time, there's still a
lot of less things. The economy are still a bit weak.
There's restraint in terms of say, debt to income ratio
restrictions from the reserve banks. So there's support effectors, but
(12:12):
also things that are restraining the market too.
Speaker 2 (12:15):
Is it benefiting or encouraging investors.
Speaker 4 (12:18):
Yeah, we're definitely seeing investors coming back. That's been a
trend for probably about nine months now. They reached to
tros in terms of their bucket share at least about
sort of April May last year, and then since then
the tax rules had gone a little bit easier for investors,
and of course mortgage rates have come down, so that's
really helping to reduce those top ups that most investors
(12:41):
would require for a new rental purchase, so in other words,
topping up the cash flow from other sources of income.
As mortgage rates come down, those top ups come down,
and so yeah, there's evidence that investors are coming back
as those cash flowers improve. So I think probably a
busier year for investors this year too.
Speaker 2 (13:01):
Calvin, is this a sign that interest rates are about
as low as they're going to get for the next
few years?
Speaker 4 (13:07):
Well, a million dollar question again, Yeah, and you know,
there's no financial advice or anything here, but I mean
we've I think we probably have seen the biggest falls
and mortgage traits in his face that they've come down
pretty sharply in a recently short period of time, and
they're not they're very unlikely to go back to those
those COVID levels. So yeah, I mean, once we start
(13:28):
to get rates in that four and a half to
five percent kind of range, which is what we've got now,
you'd have to think that's getting fairly close to the bottoms.
So yeah, so big decisions for people.
Speaker 2 (13:41):
Thank you, Calvin, appreciate your time this morning. That was
Calvin Davidson, Core Logic, Chief Property Economist, twenty four past.
Speaker 1 (13:47):
Five, the early edition for All the Show podcast on
iHeartRadio powered by News Talks at Me.
Speaker 2 (13:54):
It is twenty six past five. You're with early edition, Jee,
we've gone stadium man here in Auckland. We already had
seven pretty substantial stadiums ranging from four thousand person capacity
to fifty thousand, spread across the city from the north
short amount Eden Penrose to Manco, not including other sporting
and event spaces. But we can't stop suggesting we build
more while we wait for Auckland councilors to ponder feasibility
(14:18):
studies done by Eden Park in the proposed new waterfront
stadium in Key Park and announce who will go on
to win the title of Auckland's main stadium. Another stadium
is being pitched, this time for Western Springs, So Western
Springs Speedway has its final event on Saturday night. Although
we've heard that before and now Auckland Council is interested
in what to do with this valuable inner city site.
(14:40):
This really is an exciting opportunity, especially after years of
kafuffle around the speedway. Auckland might not need another entertainment
or sporting venue, but they are really nice to have,
especially when someone else is coughing up the money for them.
So Auckland has to ask itself what facilities do we need,
what would the inner city benefit from and can these
new facilit be used by as many teams and individuals
(15:02):
as possible. Real estate this valuable needs to be well
utilized year round. That's why quite like the proposal from
the team behind Auckland FC. The proposal for their new
facility features a twelve thousand, five hundred seeded stadium, covered
basketball courts and paddle courts. It's champion and backed by
Stephen Adams, Ali Williams, Anna Mowbray and billionaire football owners
(15:25):
Bill Foley and Bennett Rosenthal. The group of targeted football,
basketball and paddle because they are the fastest growing sports
in the world but lack infrastructure in Auckland, so they're
not just meeting a community need. It's also going to
be the home of Auckland FC, signaling this team is
a long term commitment, so that they're all good things.
(15:45):
I mean, I would observe things have gone pretty well
at go Media Stadium for Auckland FC this season, but
maybe not everyone likes traveling to Penrose. Maybe it's felt
an inner city location near hospo hubs will help sustain
interest in the team. Yes, my tongue is on my cheek.
According to the seen the proposal, this sporting facility would
be built at zero cost to the right player. The
only downside is the existing occupants, the Pontsibly Rugby Club
(16:07):
would need to move and of course it need to
be supported to do this. There are two more proposals.
The Pontsib Rugby Club wants to turn it into a
bigger venue and the entertainment group wants to turn it
into a multipurpose entertainment and community sports venue, but we
yet to hear the details on those proposals. In fact,
there is a lot of information were yet to see.
But fingers crossed this process will move faster than the
(16:29):
decision around the speedway. Whatever plans are presented, Remember the
locals are a vocal and determined lot. Win them over
and you might just have a chance. So do you
love it? Do you say? Bring it on? Have you
been dry dying to try paddle and you're wondering what
paddle is? It's that game that all the F one
(16:50):
players play. You know, It's kind of like tennis, but
the balls are allowed to hit the wall and slightly
different racket and a slightly different ball. I sort of
sound like I'm not I'm talking about right. I'm all
in for new facilities. I think it'll be a tough
choice on the Pope Ponts and be Rugby Club, but
they're the only ones with the plan and no money
to pay for it. And as I said, it's a
nice to have, not a need. So keen to hear
(17:12):
from you ninety two ninety two what would you like
to see done with the Western Springs? You're with early edition?
We can love love things that we know.
Speaker 4 (17:24):
We can go forever till you are listen it out.
Speaker 1 (17:29):
The news you need this morning and the in depth
analysis early edition with one roof make your property search simple.
News Talk said, be you.
Speaker 3 (17:38):
Are men because I'm feeling messy.
Speaker 4 (17:43):
Ectly you told me get.
Speaker 5 (17:45):
A job and your love.
Speaker 2 (17:49):
Good morning. This is early edition on news Talks. There'd
be I'm franchise because I've been filling in for Andrew today.
Thank you for being with us, and the next half
are we head to the US. A call has taken
place early this morning, our time, between and Trump, so
we're going to get the latest on that, and we're
really hoping for good news today that New Zealand has
crawled its way out of a recession. We're going to
get the queue four GDP data this morning. Most of
(18:10):
the ex books think we have, but we should be
very reserved with our expectations. It looks like economic recovery
is going to be a slow grind, so we're going
to cover this off before the end of the hour. Hey,
thanks so much for your feedback. Most of you seem
to think that a twelve five hundred seated stadium is
far too small for Auckland FC because they've been getting
(18:32):
great crowds out at go Media Stadium, so a lot
of comments on the fact that that's not too big.
Here's the thing. I presume they've worked out what size
stadium they can fit as well as having those other facilities.
And I do think it is important that they are
offering other facilities, not just another stadium, because you might
as well just stay at use one of the many
other stadiums we have. So I like the fact that
(18:52):
offering other options and other text degrees. I like the
idea of a new, fully purpose stadium with further sports
and mind we actually need rather than the same old
and another text just when anything but housing keep with
the feedback coming. You can text on ninety two ninety
two Does that be right? Let's head around the country
(19:16):
and joining us from Dunedin is Callum Proctor, Good morning, Callum.
I believe Contact Energy is to fight back after Southland
wind Farm has been rejected.
Speaker 6 (19:25):
Yes, the Fast Track Consenting Panels shot down their proposal
on Tuesday. They said it wasn't satisfied that adverse effects
on indigenous plants and animals could be properly mitigated. Look,
this is a one billion dollar project. Local councils and
e WE had approved it, but Forest and Bird and
some local and landowners are opposed to it. Contact Boss
(19:47):
Mike Fuge says the rejection will add millions of dollars
and costs years of delays, and it sends the message
that New Zealand is not open for business. The company
will appeal or seek a consent under the new fast
track consent process.
Speaker 2 (20:00):
Needin's weather column.
Speaker 6 (20:01):
Yep, fine today morning and evening cloud nor easterly develops
the high today twenty.
Speaker 2 (20:05):
Sounds lovely, Thank you so much. Claire Sherwood is in
christ yet, Good morning Claire. Now what is this about
teachers being stabbed at a school?
Speaker 7 (20:13):
Yes, Francesca look the Ministry of Educations offering support to
a christ Church school after a student attacked two teachers
yesterday with a pair of scissors. Emergency services were called
to at nue's Highata Community campus at around two in
the afternoon. Principal Peggy Burrows says the assault did happen
in front of a number of students and staff. That's
(20:33):
been confirmed by parents who say children as young as
seven eighty nine saw it all unfolding. The principal says
the two teachers did receive some medical attention but didn't
need hospital. They recovering well. They won't be back at
school for the rest of this week at least police Meanwhile,
I'm making inquiries into the incident.
Speaker 2 (20:51):
Goodness May and the weather today.
Speaker 7 (20:53):
Mostly cloudy with Sampachi morning drizzle, then fine spouls, increasing
northeasterlies and a high of nineteen.
Speaker 2 (20:59):
Thank you. Max Toole is in Wellington and Max Wellington
Facebook page is up for sale.
Speaker 5 (21:06):
Yeah sounds a little odd, doesn't it. This is vic Deals,
a group created in twenty twelve. It operates as a
sort of community notice board where residents can list items
for sale, advertise their businesses, debate local issues, post emergency
updates when they need to from around the city. It
is a business. It contains advertising. It's got nearly a
quarter of a million followers two and a half million
(21:29):
page views per month. Owner Charlie Ward calls it a
modern and organic way to reach customers for businesses. Ward himself,
by the way twenty two, but he's listed it for sale.
Facebook pages incidentally still considered effective in a number of ways.
Former Mayor Justin Lester very recently turned his mayoral page
into a Wellington community Facebook page called Wellington Alive, which
(21:52):
seemed to be a testing ground for him to perhaps
decide whether to run again. Wellington Live is another one.
The owner there is running for mayor a platform for
a platform.
Speaker 2 (22:03):
Max, I do feel a little bit of a snigger
there when you say Facebook, just a little Wellington's we're the.
Speaker 5 (22:10):
Today, sure, mostly cloudy with the odd shower seventeen the
high Central.
Speaker 2 (22:15):
Thank you so much and never ritty Manho was in
the Auckland studio.
Speaker 8 (22:17):
Are you awake?
Speaker 2 (22:18):
You're with us? Hang on, that's all right, that's just
the producer. We're on to it now.
Speaker 9 (22:24):
She probably thought I was sitting in the other seat.
Speaker 2 (22:26):
Good morning, good morning. How you have to say you're
looking very tenned am? I? Yes?
Speaker 9 (22:31):
Is that natural? Or is it fake?
Speaker 10 (22:33):
Fake?
Speaker 2 (22:34):
Oh? Yeah, goods out of a bottle.
Speaker 9 (22:37):
I must drie one of those.
Speaker 2 (22:38):
Yeah, no, I think this is an Australian glow I
have on here out of a bottle.
Speaker 9 (22:44):
All right, I'll take bick my compliment then, O oh no, no,
it's very good, very good.
Speaker 2 (22:50):
Got up early for that compliment, got held up by
by a house this morning on the way to work.
You don't say that very often. It was a house moving.
Speaker 5 (23:00):
Oh my goodness.
Speaker 2 (23:00):
Those trucks they do just literally go down the middle
of the road. They do where we're coming from. This
was on Great South Throat heading towards Green Lane. So
they were fascinating.
Speaker 9 (23:09):
Oh okay, so it took you about an hour to
get you because they go and good on them because
they've got to be safe.
Speaker 2 (23:13):
Instead of thirteen Oh yeah, no, anyway, hey, look let's
get on with us.
Speaker 9 (23:17):
Yes, so look the Minister of Auckland now he is
defending this anti crime fund being solely targeted for Auckland CBD.
Now Sime and Brown yesterday if you missed the sea
and now it's one point three million dollars, it's going
to go towards improved security measures across the city center. Now,
Brown says, the CBD's got to go to the CBD
because it's the gateway for visitors and it's got the
(23:37):
highest concentration of crime in the city. But as you
can imagine, other areas are not happy about this. Monaco
counselor Law two fully says, look, her area has got
the second highest concentration needs and that needs, you know,
to help tackle crime as well. So she's just come
out and see there's more to Auckland than the CBD.
But I suppose I've got to prioritize it. Thought they.
Speaker 2 (23:58):
She's got a point though with it.
Speaker 9 (24:00):
Today mainly fine apart from this morning. Cloud twenty four
is the high today, another day for a good ten.
Speaker 2 (24:06):
Thank you so much for joining us, Nava. Where would
we we without you? Our next we're off the UIs.
Mitch McCann is with us. It is sixteen to.
Speaker 1 (24:15):
Six International correspondence with Ends and Eye Insurance, Peace of
mind for New Zealand business.
Speaker 2 (24:23):
It is quarter to six and Mitch McCann from the
UIs joins me.
Speaker 8 (24:26):
Now, Good morning, Mitch, Good morning Francesca. How are you good?
Speaker 2 (24:29):
Thank you? So Zelenski and Trump have talked over the
phone this morning. What do you know about the call?
Speaker 8 (24:34):
Yeah, they spoke in the last couple of hours. Donald
Trump put a social media statement out saying that the
much of the discussion was based on the call Trump
had with Vladimir Putin yesterday in order to align both
Russia and Ukraine, and he added that we are very
much on track now. The White House is going to
put more information about this call with Zelenski out in
the coming hours. We do know Vladimir Zelenski will want
(24:56):
to know exactly what Vladimir Putin told Donald Trump yes
today their phone call when Putin agreed to this limited
cease fire. But we know obviously there is a lot
of distrust on zelensky side towards Russia. He believes that
he's already violated this limited seas fire and if there
is one going forward, he wants the US to monitor
(25:16):
it so they can keep an eye on the Russian
So we'll find out more about what was said in
that phone call in the next hour or so.
Speaker 2 (25:22):
And hopefully we'll find out more about how we're going
to move forward, right, Yeah, that's right.
Speaker 8 (25:26):
And we know that the officials from the US and
Russia are going to be meeting in Saudi Arabia next
Monday and Tuesday to discuss the technical details of a
partial cease fire. Things are looking good going forward, but
as we know with what we've seen in other parts
of the world, these things can fall apart very quickly.
Speaker 2 (25:44):
Match It's also been reported the Pentagon is looking to
significantly reduce its workforce.
Speaker 8 (25:50):
Yeah, this is the latest example of the US government
using this Department of Government Efficiency being run by Elon
Musk to cut jobs, cut tens of thousands of jobs
in the The latest agency is the Department of Defense,
and it's reported that up to sixty thousand civilian jobs
could be going there. But it comes at a bit
(26:10):
of a messy time because two judges have actually ordered
that some of the layoffs are illegal. Now the White
House is having to try and re hire twenty five
thousand of these people it already fired, so it's getting messy.
But the layoffs certainly do continue as they're on their
mission to shrink the size of the government.
Speaker 2 (26:28):
Thank you so much, mtch appreciate your time this morning.
Of course, my costing breakfast will be across this Zelensky
Trump conversation. As Mitch said, we've only had limited details
about it, and I'm sure that they'll be covering whatever
else is released on that throughout the morning. It is
eleven to.
Speaker 1 (26:45):
Six zibby right.
Speaker 2 (26:49):
It's hoped we'll get confirmation today that New Zealand is
crawling out of its recession. The GDP number for Q
four last year is out this morning. Most economists are
picking a rise between point three and point five percent,
but that comes off the back of a one point
one percent and one percent drop in Q three and
Q two last year asb chief economist, and it toughly
(27:11):
is with us.
Speaker 1 (27:12):
Now.
Speaker 2 (27:12):
Good morning, Nick, thanks for your time.
Speaker 10 (27:14):
Good morning.
Speaker 2 (27:15):
What numbers are you picking?
Speaker 10 (27:17):
We are picking a point three percent lift and that's
the same as the Reserve Bank, So I think you
had a good analogy there. It is crawling, particularly when
you put in that context of just how much things
slowed down during middle parts of last year.
Speaker 2 (27:30):
So the fact that we're going to be out of
a technical recession, that's good news, but this growth is
still pretty anemic, right.
Speaker 10 (27:37):
It is going to be a gradual recovery. I think
what we need to remember is that interest rates have
been falling for a little bit, but it hasn't been
until probably that fourth quarter of last year where we
started to see the average mortgage rate that people were
paying start to decline and start to actually impact on
people's cash flows. So we do see that we'll be
(27:57):
seeing those glimmers of light and consume the spending coming through,
which is a really really good start signaling recovery. But
we are really being saved over their quarter, assuming that
we do have a positive number by things like agriculture
where we had really great weather in the dairy season
in particular, had a really strong lift into Christmas.
Speaker 2 (28:17):
Yes, So as you're taking a look at the sectors
which are on the improve, which ones do you think
we'll have given it a boost and which ones would
you sort of hope to see better performance from going forward.
Speaker 10 (28:30):
Where we've seen some good time sort of coming through
it is dairy in the meat sector, so strong sort
of meat production as well, and despite what's happening in
the US for the time being anyway, they haven't given
up eating handburgers, which has really helped a lot. So
that's been good. That retail sector through spending, also being
helped by tourism, so expect those aspects to come through
(28:53):
and help us out. Where things are still looking quite
soggy is in construction, so we're still coming out of
the tail end of the impacts of the housing market
and more general properties slow down, so that sector really
struggling still in the short term.
Speaker 2 (29:07):
You mentioned the glimmers. We all like a glimmer. How
long do you think it will take the country to
bounce back from the major drops last year, Are we
going to see a boom or much more of a
slow burn.
Speaker 10 (29:19):
It's I think much more realistic if we look at
this as being a slow burn. It's going to be
I think a bit of a challenge to suddenly see
the economy rebound and recover two percent than the conditions
that we're facing. But look where we've got some good
tailwinds is those low interest rates gradually working their way
through this year, the good payouts that the farmers are getting,
the tourism sector picking up or working their way through.
(29:42):
And it's not obviously just about a dairy story. That
meets story as well starting to shine through. So look
at it as gradual recovery rather than sharp rebound. We're
going back to more normal interest rates sessions rather than
dropping to some really low level where we all can't
afford not to borrow.
Speaker 2 (29:58):
Zer point three percent rise enough for the government to
convince us things are turning around.
Speaker 10 (30:04):
Look, it's a really good sign if we get a
positive number that we are starting to crawl our way
out of what's been a really challenging time. But look,
the challenges is that with growth being relatively modest, we're
not going to be suddenly getting back to low levels
of unemployment that quickly as well. And look, the general
challenges that the government faces are still around getting productivity
(30:28):
back up after a number of years of it been
very very weak, and really focusing on what it can
do to enable growth, bring back the confidence, get people
making decisions that help the economies back up.
Speaker 2 (30:43):
I was going to ask you what the risks are
for the economy to continue to grow.
Speaker 10 (30:50):
Where we are most vulnerable and most countries are at
the moment is what's happening globally at the moment, mainly
around Donald Trump. And there's a few areas where that's
impact just simply all the going back and forth on
whether there's the tariff or not. The fact that he
is also hitting a lot of his allies with tariffs
(31:12):
is creating a lot of uncertainty, and certainty is not
great for making clear decisions. So there is that risk
to global growth of it being slowed by both the uncertainty.
And that's even before you get into the drag that
we could have if we get some quite widespread tariffs.
And we are also going to have to be mindful
when we roll round into April and we get our
report card on our trade practices, whether or not we
(31:34):
get directly impacted by tariffs as well. So biggest risks
seem to be coming from globally, whereas domestically, with interest
rates coming down, it's really a matter of time until
they start to work through and improve the economy locally.
Speaker 2 (31:48):
So that Keith Q four numbers out at mid day.
Speaker 10 (31:50):
Nick ten forty five is when we get those releases
coming through. So everybody tune into the radio ten forty five.
Speaker 2 (32:00):
Order number it exciting day. Thank you so much, Nick Toushley,
their ASV chief economist. It is six to six. I've
got a surprise for you. Next you're with Early Edition.
Speaker 1 (32:11):
The first word on the news of the day Early
Edition where one roof will make your property search simple.
The news talks that'd.
Speaker 2 (32:19):
Be it is four to six. Look he probably heard
in the news we've been talking about stadiums this morning,
and something actually very special happened at Go Media Stadium
in Auckland last night, and that is that Sam Ruth
became New Zealand's became the youngest person in history to
break the four minute mile barrier. He's a fifteen year
old from Totonger, he's an incredible talent. But not only
(32:40):
was that pretty special, but also Ben Wall broke the
mark for the first time in three minutes and fifty
nine seconds. And the other really special thing about it
was that these two guys were paced by Olympian Sam Tanner,
who won the race. But the look on his face
when he realized that the three of them had all
come in, you know, under four minutes, was just wonderful. Anyway,
(33:03):
you know, there's going to be I know that a
lot of people are we expecting great things from Sam Ruth.
I hope he just feels his own way, takes his
time and just enjoys running. Still now, I said I
had a surprise for you this morning, and he has
just walked into the studio this morning. We are joined
by Ryan Bridge, who got a rather late call up.
(33:23):
I did, good morning, but I'm very grateful has turned up.
Speaker 9 (33:26):
I'm here.
Speaker 5 (33:27):
I'm here, so Mike is unwell today.
Speaker 6 (33:30):
I'm going to be filling in for Mike throughout the morning,
so I look forward to chatting to you where I'm
going to chat to Sam Ruth.
Speaker 2 (33:35):
Actually are you?
Speaker 1 (33:36):
He's a man on a mission.
Speaker 2 (33:37):
Give him a love, give him congratulations, he's amazing. So
Ryan Bridge is going to be with you. I'll be
back tomorrow morning. Have a great day.
Speaker 1 (33:53):
For more from Early Edition with Ryan Bridge, Listen live
to news talks he'd be from five am weekdays, or
of the podcast on iHeartRadio.
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