Ryan Bridge: Don't underestimate the Trump Bump

Alright it's time for Friday confessional. 

With the Pope passing away, all this focus on Catholicism's got me feeling repentant. 

There are two things I predicted would happen last December as I was signing for Christmas here at Newstalk ZB. One of those things hasn't happened and the other one is about to not happen. 

Poilievre winning the Canadian election and Albo losing Australia's. 

We all know who's to blame. You know who – the wildcard, the kamikaze, the outlaw, it was the Trump Bump that did it for both of these guys.  

Carney, while he's won, will have a very tough term in office given the whole rally round the flag effect in support of Canadian sovereignty will fizzle out as quickly as Jacinda's Covid election high – the underlying problems Canadians felt before this month-long love-in will remain. This will surely be his high tide mark. 

But that's no excuse. I got it wrong. Fair cop. 

And as for Dutton, who's been looking behind every couch and under every rock for something relevant to say, he’s now beating up on the return to country. Which during a cost of living crisis people want sorted, is akin to Judith Collins' attack on fat people at the ill-fated 2020 election. 

Remember that? If you want to lose weight, then eat less. Actually, not an unreasonable thing to say for most but it's the timing, isn't it? It's the focus on that when it should be on bigger things. 

And that brings us to the elephant in the White House: Donald Trump. 

While I predicted he'd win last November, I think most of us underestimated just what “America first” meant for the rest of the world. When somebody comes first, somebody loses. 

And both Albo and Carney have been beneficiaries of that. 

His power of course has swung global political pendulums before. Remember the rise and international star power of Jacinda Ardern was born out of an anti-Trump backlash. The liberal young female prime minister banning assault rifles in a country post mass-shooting became the darling of global left – just the tonic for those who not just dislike, but despise Trump and his band of merry MAGA supporters. 

So the political lesson is don't underestimate the Trump Bump and Dump on any foreign election. 

The question is, what does it mean for our election next year? 

We're less affected by his tariffs, unless China implodes. We’re not yet being threatened with invasion. Unlike the Aussies and Canadians, our incumbents are bent to the right.  

So the risk of a Trump Bump getting Chippy over the line here if he starts singing from Phil Goff’s songbook is perhaps more limited – but not non-existent. 

When Washington coughs, somebody gets a cold. 

How Luxon and Winston et al. navigate the next 18 months will determine whether it's them that catches it. 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
It is Friday, and it is Friday confessional time. With
all the pope passing away and focus on Catholicism, I'm
feeling quite repentant this morning. There are two things I
predicted would happen last December as I was signing off,
merely signing off for Christmas here at News Talk ZB.
One of those things hasn't happened, and the other one

(00:21):
is about to not happen. Yev winning the Canadian election
and Elbow losing Australia's We all know who's to blame.
You know who it is, the wildcard, the Cama, Carzee,
the outlaw. It was the Trump bump that did it
for these guys. Carney, while he's won, will have a
very tough term in office given the whole rally around

(00:41):
the Flagpole effect and support of the Canadian sovereignty movement
will fizzle out as quickly as just Sinda's COVID election
high did. The underlying problems Canadians felt before this month
long lovin' will remain, will persist, and this will surely
be his high tide mark. But that's no excuse I
got it wrong, fair cop. And as for Dutton, who's

(01:03):
now been well, looking behind the couch, looking under every
rock and every nook and cranny he can for something
relevant to say. He's now beating up on the return
to country, which during a cost of living crisis people
want not really to hear about, Thank you very much,
sort of like when Judith Collins went on the attack
about fat people and that ill fated twenty twenty election campaign.

(01:25):
Remember that if you want to lose weight, then eat less.
Actually not unreasonable thing to say for most people. But
it's the timing, isn't it. It's the timing in the
middle of an election campaign. It's the focus on that
when you should be talking about bigger things. And that
brings us to the elephant in the White House, Donald Trump.
While I predicted he would win last November, I think

(01:47):
most of us underestimated just what America First would mean
for the rest of the world. When somebody comes first,
somebody loses, and both Elbow and Karney have been the
benefactors of that. His power, of course, has swung global
political pendulums before. Remember his rise and international the rise
I should say, an international star power of Jacinda Adern

(02:09):
that was really borne out of an anti Trump backlash
from his first term, the liberal, young female prime minister
banning assault weapons and a country post mass shooting becomes
the darling of the global left, just the tonic for
those who not only dislike but actually despise Trump and

(02:31):
his band of Mary Maga supporters. So the political lesson
is don't underestimate the Trump bump or the Trump dump
on any foreign election. The question is what does this
mean for our election next year. We're less affected by
the tariffs unless China implodes. We're not yet being threatened
with invasion, though don't rule that out. And unlike the

(02:53):
Aussies and the Canadians, our incumbents aren't bent to the right.
So the risk of a Trump bump getting chippy over
the line here if you start singing from phel Goff's songbook,
is perhaps more limited, but not nonexistent. When Washington coughs,
somebody gets a colt. How Luxeon and Winston to an

(03:14):
extent navigate the next eighteen months will determine whether it's
them that catches it. For more from Early edition with
Ryan Bridge, listen live to News Talk Set B from
five am weekdays, or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.