Terry Collins: AA Principal Policy Advisor on the potential impact of the Iran conflict on the price of oil

Iran's strikes on Qatar and Iraq have sent oil prices tumbling. 

Crude prices fell about 6% following the news. 

Analysts have been warning of steep rises if Iran retaliates against Sunday's US strikes, by targeting oil infrastructure and closing the Strait of Hormuz. 

AA Principal Policy Advisor Terry Collins told Ryan Bridge that the talk of potentially doubling the price of oil per barrel is overblown. 

He said if it did happen, it would be a short-term spike as alternative shipping routes were established.  

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
The price of oil hasn't gone through the roof, despite

(00:02):
what's happening in the Middle East. Brent crude oil is
actually down four percent of the day to seventy dollars
seventy cents a barrel. This is US and there are
a couple of reasons for this. We'll get to those
in a second. Terry Collins, the principal AA advisor with
US Petrol Expert oil expert on the program, Terry, good morning,

(00:22):
Good morning on Yeah, were you surprised to see or
did the markets just price in trouble in the Middle East?

Speaker 2 (00:30):
You're right initially what they did when their text were launched,
as they just twicted the risk. Everybody now was just
sitting back and seeing how the Uranians retaliate to the
US strikes. They've talked, well threatened to shut straight up
themors and that could take a variety of forms, everything
from just stopping some targeted ships of certain nationalities, putting

(00:52):
minds down, to directly attacking shipping, and each of those
would have an impact on the price of oil.

Speaker 1 (00:58):
Interesting that the markets are only bedding on a twenty
five to thirty percent chance of that actually happening because
they've threatened to do this before and nothing came of it. Right.

Speaker 2 (01:08):
Yeah, I think what everybody's sitting back and looking is
the Uranians know that they came to go full on
with the US and its neighbors, so they've got to
save face. They've got to be some form of recaliation.
Let's say to the world that we will defend ourselves
and if you strike us, we will strike back. But
I think they're scared about going too far because of
the consequences of that.

Speaker 1 (01:29):
Also, the other thing about the Strait that I was
reading about yesterday, part of it is actually in Oman's waters,
with vessels actually able to go in their waters to
get through. So can they actually completely block it off?

Speaker 2 (01:45):
Well, the straight that its scenarios is about thirty three
kilometers wide and for the cook straight of that scenarios
is about twenty two. But they've got these shipping rains
about three kilometers wide in both directions. One of them
will be in the Omar side, so that's in one direction.
Practicalities of it, if they're going to start shooting each other,
will laying mines, They'll just do it discuruent where they

(02:06):
has drop them. So what that happens is the shipping
companies because of the insurance issues, won't want to take
the ships in there. They'll do that voluntary. I'll think
the risk of being struck by a mine the environment
will clean up is too significant, and that's how they're
will slow down the supply of will all right.

Speaker 1 (02:23):
And the talk of potentially doubling the price of oil
per barrel overblown.

Speaker 2 (02:29):
Overblown, and probably if it did happen, it would be
a short term spike. What we saw after the Russian
invasion of Ukraine is the world did spike around the
one twenty one to thirty, but then as alternative roots
of will going back onto the market were established, those
prices drop down. We've seen from a number of these
geopolitical events that there's an immediate short term spike and

(02:51):
then the court of markets settled down as alternative arrangements
are made for delivering oil to the market.

Speaker 1 (02:57):
Terry, appreciate you time this morning, Terry Collins from AA.
For more from earlier edition with Ryan Bridge, listen live
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