Ryan Bridge: A new political battlefront's opening up on homelessness

Nobody wants to see streets dotted with tents like San Francisco or downtown LA.

This much-hyped government report to Tama Potaka gives a few insights, but doesn't really nail the problem. 

There are more people living rough, but we can't say for sure how many more, and even if we could, we can't say how statistically significant the change might be. 

Because we had census data, we know it got way worse under Labour - up 37% from 2018-2023. 

The councils are reporting —what economists might call— high frequency data that things are getting worse - the rising number of phone calls and reports of concern they're getting from the public. 

The real question —which is the basis of what the Opposition's upset about— is if the Government's crackdown on emergency housing caused a wave of homeless refugees camped out on the streets?

Here's some interesting numbers: the number of households living in emergency motels is down by 75%, around 85% of them went to some form of housing. 

So that's great. They managed to smash through the list and get most people housed. 

And here's where Labour's claim gets a bit unbelievable: there's only been a 4% increase in declines for emergency applications. 

An increase in homeless doesn't necessarily mean the emergency accommodation changes were a disaster. 

In fact, the numbers would, at least on the face of it, appear to show it's been wildly successful. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
There is a new political battlefront opening up on homelessness.
Nobody wants to see streets dotted with tents like they
do in San Francisco and downtown LA. So we've got
this report to Tama Paultucker doesn't nail the problem. There
are basically more people living rough, but we can't say
for sure how many more, and even if we could,
how statistically significant the change might be. But because we

(00:22):
had census data, we know it got way worse under labor,
up thirty seven percent from twenty eighteen to twenty twenty three.
The councils are reporting what your economists might call high
frequency data that things are getting worse. So stuff like
phone calls and reports are concerned they're getting from the public.
The real question, which is the basis of what the
opposition's upset about. Did the government's crack down on emergency

(00:45):
housing cause a wave of homelessness, you know, homeless refugees
camping out on the streets as a result. That's the question.
And here's the numbers. The number of households living in
emergency motels is down by seventy five percent percent or
at least eighty percent of them went on to some
form of housing. So that's great. They managed to smash

(01:07):
through the list and get most people housed. That's a success, surely.
And this is where Labour's claim gets a bit murky.
Declines so people applying for the emergency housing declines are
on the increase, but mostly rejected because their client either
wasn't eligible or could be helped in another way. An

(01:27):
increase in homelessness doesn't necessarily mean the emergency accommodation changes
were a disaster. In fact, the numbers would, at least
on the face of them, appear to show it's been
wildly successful at getting people out of motels and into
actual homes, including by the way, two thousand children. For

(01:48):
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