Ryan Bridge: The economic freeze has no end in sight

It’s about that time of year when it feels like winter really starts to drag.... and it must be feeling that way for Christopher Luxon, too.

It‘a cold and dark and we just want to be at the beach like our poser friends in Bali or Europe. 

But we endure this gloomy season safe in the knowledge that one day, in a month or so, springtime will come, the days will get longer and everything about life will just feel easier. Easy, breezy and warm.

Contrast that to the economic winter we’re simultaneously enduring and you can see there’s an immediate problem.

Unlike winter, which we know will end soon, this economic funk has graced us longer than the GFC's.

Inflation is back on its way up. 

We may have bounced out of recession for a few quarters but there’s also a good chance we’re currently back in negative growth territory.

That’s after now three years of unaffordable food, mortgages, well, pretty much everything. 

Politicians are arguing  - again at the weekend - about who's to blame. 

The answer of course is a party and a reserve bank that went too far responding to a virus, and then continued down spending like a drunken sailor.

Trump hasn't helped, just recently. 

The problem for National is that voters don't seem to care much who started a fire, they just want the thing put out. 

And they need to feel the numbers. Not the OCR announcement, but the mortgage re-fix on a lower rate. 

Food price inflation's still going up. So things might be getting more expensive less quickly, but they're still going up in price. 

Only once people feel different will the polls respond. 

The biggest problem for the Coalition on waiting for that to happen, is not that some might convert to Labour voters in the meantime, but that they might jump ship altogether and move to Brisbane. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
And it's about that time of year when it feels

(00:03):
like winter is really starting to drag. And I think
it must be really starting to drag for Christopher Luxen too.
It's cold, it's dark. We just want to be at
the beach, like all of our poser friends on Instagram
who are in Bali or Europe being absolute you know
what's but we endure this gloomy season safe in the

(00:25):
knowledge that one day, in a month or so, springtime
will come, the days will get longer, everything about life
will just feel easier, easy, breezy, warm, great, get me
to it now. Contrast that to the economic winter that
we're simultaneously enduring right now, and you can see that
there's an immediate problem. Unlike winter, which we know will
end soon, this economic funk has graced us longer than

(00:47):
the gfc's inflation is on its way back up. For goodness, Sacks,
we may have bounced out of a recession for a
few quarters, but there's also a good chance we currently
back in negative growth territory. That's after three years of
unaffordable food, your mortgages, pretty much everything. You know this,
I know this. Politicians are arguing again at the weekend

(01:09):
about who's to blame. The answer, of course is the
Labor Party, the Reserve Bank. They went too far and
responding to the virus, and then we continue down the
spending spree, spending like a drunken sailor. Trump hasn't helped
just recently. The problem for National is that voters don't
seem to care much who started the fire. They just

(01:29):
want the whole thing put out quickly, and they need
to feel the numbers. This is National's problem, This is
the problem. They need to feel the numbers, not the
OCR announcement the top line, but they need to feel
the mortgage refixing on a lower rate. Food price inflation
is still going up, so things might be getting more

(01:50):
expensive less quickly, but they're still going up in price,
aren't they. Only once people feel different will the Poles respond.
For your Christopher Luxance. The biggest problem for the Coalition
on waiting for that to happen is not that some
might convert to Labor voters in the meantime, but that

(02:10):
they might jump ship all together and move to Brisbane.
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