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August 14, 2025 4 mins

The country's red meat sector may struggle to reach a goal set by the Government to double exports by 2034.

Data from NZ Beef + Lamb's found breeding ewe numbers have dropped by nearly two-percent, while beef cattle numbers were up 4.4-percent.

It reveals 2.6 million units of sheep and beef stock have been lost due to afforestation over the past eight years. 

Federated Farmers Meat and Wool Chair Richard Dawkins told Ryan Bridge the rules don't extend to land where most beef and sheep farms are.

He says it appears they're siding with polluters over producers, because a simple solution would be to extend it to all land use classes.

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Episode Transcript

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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Right now. If you remember, back in May, stats in
ZID data showed sheep numbers had fallen twenty one percent,
beef cattle by thirteen percent. This is over the past decade.
Well now, Beef and LAMB says for the year ending June,
this is the year ending June, sheep numbers fell by
just one percent, beef cattle rose actually up four point
four percent. So what does all this mean? Richard Dawkins

(00:22):
as Fed Farmers Meet and wheelchair with us this morning. Richard,
good morning, Yeah, good morning, Ryan. Hey, what do you
make of these numbers?

Speaker 2 (00:30):
Yeah, it's great to see. That's like recovery, isn't it.
But it's just important to understand the nuance of these
figures and the overall trend. I suppose what is the nuance?
So we're seeing a recovery and numbers due to the
rebuild after cyclone Gabrielle and also a couple of regions
are coming out of drought last year, so so restocking

(00:54):
on capital stock. But yeah, we're obviously still concerned with
the general trend over the last two or three years,
which shows us down about one and a half million
stock units.

Speaker 1 (01:07):
Because we've got obviously export prices increasing. We've got that
part of the equation seems to be looking good. But
what's holding it back? Is it all forestry or what?

Speaker 2 (01:20):
Oh? Look, there's there's no doubt the sector is in
a really good space, Ryan, And it's fantastic to see.
We have to see these that we have to enjoy
these positive times returns wise, the higher schedules are combined
with some easing of farm working expenses, but also interest
rates coming down, So that's good timing. But look, the

(01:42):
major concern for the sheep and beef sector particularly right
now is this Climate Change Amendment Bill and preventing those
wholesale conversions to carbon forestry.

Speaker 1 (01:54):
What exactly is wrong because there's I've seen fed farmers say,
you know, not happy with some of the changes from
the Select Committee about conversion. What exactly is wrong here?

Speaker 2 (02:06):
Yeah, Look, so I want to be really clear. We
support the intent of the bill. We think the Coalition
government is trying to do the right thing, but I'm
just not sure if possibly they're across all of the details.
So the and I want to be clear too, Ryan,
this is actually a restriction on people's ability to claim

(02:27):
carbon credits. It's not actually a restriction on their ability
to plant trees. But the reality is the protections are
mostly on classes one to five, and only twelve percent
of the whole farm conversions were actually on that country.
So the majority of our sheep and beef farms, sixty

(02:47):
six percent of our sheep and beef farms are on
classes and classes six and seven, which don't have those restrictions.

Speaker 1 (02:54):
So you would be able to claim credits on land
that you think should be found.

Speaker 2 (03:01):
So the way the bill stands, if you plant your
entire property in trees, you could only claim credits on
twenty five percent of that area. So look, if it's
the right tree in the right place and there's a
commercial demand for that timber, there's nothing stopping you doing that. However,

(03:21):
it should prevent sheep of beef farms being lost due
to the ets and that carbon value, but like I said,
it doesn't extend to where the majority of the sheep
and beef farms actually are.

Speaker 1 (03:34):
Right, gotcha. So the government obviously wants to double our exports,
sheep and beef will have to be a big part
of that. Is this, What is it that would stop
us or prevent us from doing that? Or do you
think we can.

Speaker 2 (03:47):
Yeah, like I said, Ryn, we support the intent of
the villain. And yeah, like you've mentioned, they want to
double exports, so it's sort of strange. It appears they're
siding with polluters over producers. So I mean, the simple
solution to me would be actually just extend that twenty
five percent restriction across all land use classes. It's very

(04:12):
strange they have chosen to use that land use capability
class system and that started being developed in the fifties
for soil conservation reasons. It was never designed for legislation,
so I'm just not sure how that would work in reality.

Speaker 1 (04:29):
Richard, appreciate your time this morning. Thanks mate, Richard Dawkins
Fed Farmers Meat and Wool chair.

Speaker 2 (04:34):
For more from earlier edition with Ryan Bridge. Listen live
to News Talks at be from five am weekdays, or
follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.
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