Ryan Bridge: This election is National’s to lose

As you know I’ve been saying for some time this election is National’s to lose. 

The economy will pick up, this government’s only two years in and kiwis like to give incumbents the benefit of the doubt.

I still think this holds true. But, as we’ve been reporting since April, Trump’s tariffs - which took everybody (including the markets) by surprise, making a bear of a bull - hammered business and consumer confidence just as we were showing signs of those green shoots the pundits love talking about.

This has shortened Luxon’s window for a real economic recovery, which is the platform he’s relying on for re-election.

Talk of a leadership coup by Christmas is in my view daft. 

Any National MP who thinks they can outpoll Luxon in the current climate’s got to be dreaming. A short-term bump, maybe.

But there are political costs - namely - instability. Remember Muller?

Then this newly elected Leader must go to Winston and David and no doubt relitigate all and sundry just as the later begin firing up for a showdown.

Winston and Shane were in full flight at the weekend. And it’s only September 2025.

Timing is everything and that’s Luxon’s card to play - in 12 months from now the country will (likely) feel a much different place to live.

That means a late election. If National are smart they’ll stick with the devil they know and wait for brighter days ahead.

The risks outweigh the benefits at this point in the cycle. 

If needs be, a transition can happen in pretty short order… Jacinda Ardern is proof of that. 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
As you know, I've been saying for some time this
election is Nationals to lose, the economy will pick up,
and government's only two years in Kiwi's like to give
incumbents the benefit of the doubt. And I still think
this holds true. But as we've been reporting since April,
Trump's tariffs, which took everybody, including the markets by surprise,
making a bear of a bull, hammered consumer confidence just

(00:22):
as we were showing signs of those early green shoots
that the pundits loved talking about. This has shortened Luxon's
window for a real economic recovery, which is the platform
he's relying on for re election. Right talk of a
leadership coup yet again by Christmas is in my view,
completely daft. Any National MP who thinks they can outpoll
Luxon in the current climate's got to be dreaming a

(00:44):
short term bump maybe, but there are political costs, namely instability.
Remember Muller. Then this newly elected leader has to go
cap in hand to Winston and David and no doubt
relitigate all in Sundry just after the latter began firing
up for a showdown. Winston and Shamer in full flight
at the weekend, you would have seen that it's only

(01:06):
September twenty twenty five. Timing is everything, and that is
Luxeon's card to play. In twelve months from now, the
country will likely feel a much different place to live,
and that means a later election. If the Nats are smart,
they'll stick with the devil they know and wait for
brighter days ahead. The risks outweigh the benefits at this

(01:30):
point in the cycle. If needs be, a transition can
happen in pretty short order. Just ask just into return
For more from Early Edition with Ryan Bridge. Listen live
to News Talk Set B from five am weekdays, or
follow the podcast on iHeartRadio