Ryan Bridge: My prediction for the 2026 election

Like it or not, next year's big dance in politics will ultimately be decided by the few, not the many.

Most MMP elections have been. Minnows hold the keys to the kingdom. 

Be it Winston with his best result ever or Te Pati Māori with an overhang - 2026 won’t be a 2020 landslide.

The difference this time is how extreme some of the smaller parties, more to the point, some of their MPs, have become - think Takuta on Indians and Simon Court on Palestine.

It’s not just rhetoric, but policy, too.

A separate Māori parliament, re-nationalising power companies, you name it, they'll go there.

The temptation for the behemoths, the broad churches, is to emulate what’s getting traction. To dip your toe in the pool of radical ideas. To be establishment without looking or sounding like it.

Trump and the MAGA movement are the best example of this.

In the UK, parties that have been around since Moses was a linebacker are being absolutely whipped in the polls by newer upstarts with one thing on their pledge cards: radical change.

The Conservatives have been around almost 200 years. Reform UK? Six.

The big issues differ - our cost-of-living malaise is their immigration. 

So the temptation must be to embrace a bit of that radical spirit. Labour might yet do that, we just don’t know what they’re cooking up.

My prediction? Establishment parties will do what established parties do.

Stick to the script, copy/paste their policies, hug the centre like a koala a tree, and hope their buddies grab enough from the fraying edges to get them across the line.

Their bet is that crises come and go but establishments don’t, even though the Brits and Americans show us they can and do.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Like it or not, next year's big dance and politics
will ultimately be decided by the few, not the many.
Most MMP elections have been the minnows hold the keys
to the kingdom. Be it Winston with what will it
be as best result ever potentially or to party Maldi
with the overhand. Getting the left in twenty twenty six
won't be a twenty twenty landslide. The difference this time

(00:22):
is how extreme some of those smaller parties, or more
to the point, some of their MPs have become. Think
Takuta on Indians, think Simon Court on Palestine. It's not
just rhetoric though, but policy too. A separate Maldi parliament,
renationalizing power companies, says Uncle Shane, you name it, they'll
go there. The temptation for the behemoths, the broad churches,

(00:44):
the big lots is to emulate what's getting traction, To
dip your toe in the pool of radical ideas, to
be establishment without looking or sounding like it. Trump and
the Maga movement are the best example of doing this.
In the UK, parties that have been around since Moses
was a linebacker are being absolutely whipped in the polls

(01:06):
by newer upstarts with one thing on their pledged cards,
radical change. The Conservatives have been around for two hundred years,
reform UK six. The big issues, of course do differ
our cost of living malaise as their immigration. So the
temptation must be to embrace a bit of that radical spirit,
and Labour might just do that. Yet we just don't

(01:28):
know what they're cooking up behind the scenes. My prediction, though,
establishment parties will do what establishment parties do, stick to
the script, copy paste the policies, hug the center like
a koala to a tree, and I hope their buddies
grab enough from the fraying edges to get them across
the line. Their bet is that crises come and go,

(01:49):
but established parties don't, even though the Brits and the
Americans show us they can and do. For more from
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