David Satterfield: Former US Ambassador in the Middle East on Iran vowing to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed

Iran's vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed until the US's blockade is lifted.

Iranian gunboats reportedly fired at ships trying to pass through yesterday - which US President Donald Trump's called a total violation of the ceasefire agreement.

It comes as Iran's reportedly rejected a fresh round of peace talks set for tomorrow - labelling the US's demands as 'excessive'.

Former US Ambassador in the Middle East David Satterfield shares his thoughts with Ryan Bridge. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Right to the Strait of hor Moo's been opening and
closing like a creaky door. It is basically open, closed,
open clones. Vance is heading back to Pakistan for more talks.
Iran hasn't yet said whether they'll actually show up to those.
David Satisfield is a former US ambassador who's served extensively
in the Middle East, including the Persian Gulf, Lebanon, and Iraq,
and joins me Live this morning. David, nice to have

(00:20):
you on the program. Thank you for being with me.

Speaker 2 (00:24):
Thank you.

Speaker 1 (00:24):
We've had shots fired at those vessels from while they
were flagged to India over the weekend. What do you
think is going to happen with straight from here?

Speaker 2 (00:36):
What you're seeing is pasturing on the Iranian side and
what appears to be emerging as a division, or at
least multiple viewpoints within the Iranian leadership. It's all hard line,
let's not kid ourselves about that. But there are elements

(00:56):
who are perhaps more pragmatic about negotiations and some who
are more rigid. But the strait was never opened. Iran
posed a requirement that all vessels passing comply with Iranian requirements,
which is not consistent with international obligations, So it's not

(01:17):
a question of open and then closed. It's never been
reopened again. The real question here, which we'll see over
coming hours, is whether the Iranians show up in Islamabad
tonight or tomorrow to meet the US delegation, and if
they do, whether there is any movement on either side,
the US or Iranian regarding fundamental positions on the enrichment

(01:42):
program and on the turnover of highly enriched stock.

Speaker 1 (01:47):
Do you think the finching is over now?

Speaker 2 (01:51):
Well, I think the cease fire has every potential to
endure so long as negotiations go on. But let's be
realistic here. There are three options as to where this
all can go. The negotiations proceed, they're tough, but they
proceed against a backdrop of a ceasefire and closure of

(02:12):
the strait. The US adjusts its position, the Iranians perhaps
adjust Theirs, and you ultimately come to a resolution. That's
one option. There's another option, which is the negotiations don't restart.
That is, the very hardline elements do not come to
islam Abad. I think that's less likely than not, but

(02:35):
it happens, or the negotiations go nowhere and President Trump
in frustration and anger over the Iranian refusal to move forward,
elects for an escalation. The problem with that is Iran
possesses undoubted escalation dominance. What that means is the US

(02:58):
obviously can inflict greater pain on Iran militarily, but Iran
has the capacity to effectively inflict pain across the Gulf
and beyond. That's the dilemma that shapes all of what
we are seeing now.

Speaker 1 (03:13):
David Zanderfield, appreciate your update this morning. Forming US ambassador
served extensively in the Middle East, including the Persian Golf,
Lebanon and Iraq. Also served under Trump as ambassador for
Turkey in his previous administration. For more from earlier edition
with Ryan Bridge, listen live to News Talks it Be
from five am weekdays, or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.