October 13, 2025 • 29 mins
First, The Indian Express' Udit Misra talks about the Indian economy and why many experts are surprised by the fact that it appears to be doing well.
Next, we are joined by The Indian Express' Saman Hussian who explains how a man allegedly killed his entire immediate family for the payout from their insurance policies, and why this may not be an isolated incident. (15:54)
Lastly, we discuss a rare moment of optimism in a 2 year conflict, Israel and Hamas begin a fragile truce under a deal brokered by US President Donald Trump. (26:49)
Hosted by Ichha Sharma
Written and produced by Shashank Bhargava and Ichha Sharma
Edited and mixed by Suresh Pawar
Next, we are joined by The Indian Express' Saman Hussian who explains how a man allegedly killed his entire immediate family for the payout from their insurance policies, and why this may not be an isolated incident. (15:54)
Lastly, we discuss a rare moment of optimism in a 2 year conflict, Israel and Hamas begin a fragile truce under a deal brokered by US President Donald Trump. (26:49)
Hosted by Ichha Sharma
Written and produced by Shashank Bhargava and Ichha Sharma
Edited and mixed by Suresh Pawar
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
In this episode, we talk about a man who allegedly
killed his entire immediate family for the payout from their
insurance policies and why this may not be an isolated incident.
We also talk about a rare moment of optimism in
a two year conflict, as Israel and Hamas begin a
fragile truce under a deal broker by President Trump. But
(00:22):
we begin today by talking about the Indian economy and
why many experts are surprised by the fact that it
appears to be doing well. Hi, I'm Achasharma and you're
listening to Three Things the Indian Express New show. For
(00:43):
months now, official data has suggested that Indian economy is
doing well. Unlike many other countries, India's real GDP growth
numbers have been on the rise.
Speaker 2 (00:52):
For instance, in the first.
Speaker 1 (00:53):
Quarter of this year, the GDP growth rate stood at
seven point eight percent, which is a pretty good sign.
But for those who track these numbers closely, something doesn't
quite add up, because even though the data paints a
positive picture, the government's recent policy moves from tax reliefs
to targeted welfare schemes seem to signal economic stress, as
(01:15):
if people really need more support right now, So how
can the economy be doing well on paper and yet
the government's action reflect distress. To unpack this puzzle, my
colleague Shashang Bargav speaks to the Indian Expresses Udit Misra,
who writes on the economy for the paper.
Speaker 3 (01:32):
Okay, the first tell us, based on what is known
as real GDP, how well is India's economy doing? And
tell us why do you and why do others find
that surprising?
Speaker 2 (01:44):
Yeah?
Speaker 4 (01:45):
So you know, real GDP is looked at as the
key variable when you're talking about economic growth anywhere in
the world. And first of all, let's just understand what
is real GDP. Real GDP is a derived number. It's
not something that you actually go out and you know,
observe on the ground. What you observe on the ground
(02:06):
is nominal GDP. Right, It's the market price total value
of all goods and services in the country. Then you
take away the effect of inflation from it to understand
the real GDP. How many more trucks did you sell?
How many more spoons did India make? Instead of just
looking at total valuation of it because total valuation gets
(02:27):
affected by prices. Now, in terms of real GDP, India's
economy has been surprising on the upside. You know, many
of our listeners might recall we've had these conversations that
every quarter we find that India's real GDP is better
than what everybody expected, even the policymakers. So it's not
even surprising just the detractors. It is surprising even the
(02:49):
people in the government and in RBI. And that's been happening.
And the last set of data that came out at
end of August, which was for the first quarter of
this financial year, which is a May and June. So
for those three months, again, India's real GDP grew by
seven point eight percent. Now, this is a fantastic number
because the rest of the world or a comparable economies
(03:11):
are struggling to grow even at one or two percent.
Many are actually fighting contraction. So India's economy growing at
seven point eight percent is fantastic news.
Speaker 3 (03:20):
Yeah, I know that. Why is that a surprise? Why
does that surprise you? I mean, why can't India do
so well?
Speaker 4 (03:26):
Yeah, So this is the most interesting thing that if
you for a moment stop looking at just the GDP
data real GDP numbers and focus on what's happening on
the policy space.
Speaker 2 (03:36):
Then the noise is very different there.
Speaker 4 (03:39):
You will find that, you know, look at the last
one month, it's all been about the Prime Minister down
everybody saying it is a bachatutsu. You know, we have
cut GSD rates, we have given relief. Consumers can now consume,
you know, consumption levels may go up. And you just
look back a few months you will find that a
(04:00):
similar story was happening when the budget was announced, right,
and the income tax.
Speaker 3 (04:05):
Relief was given.
Speaker 4 (04:06):
And if you go back a couple of years you'll
again see again the income tax relief was given to
seven lac paranum, then it was raised to twelve black paranaum.
And in between, look at all the election news. All
our elections are now filled by news of economic dolls,
both the party in power and the party trying to dethrone,
regardless of which the party is, all parties are trying
(04:29):
to give some economic doll or the other, which the
Prime Minister calls reveries. So the news coming out of
those stories policy space is all about, Okay, people must
be going through a really tough phase, right and the
economy needs some kind of a boost or a booster
dos you know, some kind of a relief whereas the
GDP data all the time is showing very promising picture,
(04:51):
in fact over promising in some senses, because it's surprising
on the upside almost every time. And that's the odd thing.
Speaker 3 (05:00):
Saying that if people are doing well, if they are
in fact art maneuver, then why is the government going
out of its way to help them? Because the logic
one imagines is that if the economy is doing well,
then people are doing well. They should have money to spend.
They should not require relief packages from the government.
Speaker 4 (05:22):
Yes, I mean, there is a very simple logic that
if the economy is doing very well, the government doesn't
have to do much right, it can just you know,
take its share of taxes and carry on. But when
the economy struggles, and when we say economy struggles, we
basically are saying that, you know, people that do not
have enough money to spend, they are not doing so
well in terms of income. That is when the government
(05:44):
really comes into play. You know, they figure out policies
either giving tax breaks or spending more for the poor people.
You know, so both in terms of expenditure and say
and tax policy, government tries to figure out to solve
a way to boost the economy. So here is this
odd situation, which I say, the curious case that on
(06:04):
the one hand, the economy is doing very well, but
on the other government is trying to solve it when
perhaps there is no problem as it were.
Speaker 3 (06:12):
And couldn't it be that the GDP is doing well
because of these measures by the government, as in it
gave more money into the hands of people, boosted demand,
so people are buying more and that's how the economy
is growing.
Speaker 4 (06:25):
That is entirely possible that one could argue that it
is because what the government is doing that the economy
is doing so well. But again it's in the relative
measure you look at it. How it's happening. We are
coming out of a phase of high inflation. So typically
when there's a high inflation phase, you would not be
doing that. You know, a high inflation phase essentially means
(06:48):
that economy is doing well, you know, because there's a
lot of demand, you know, relative to supply. You know,
the supply is not able to provide for all the
demand that is high inflation. So in such a scenario
when even when we had high inflation or higher than
desired inflation till last year. Because the low inflation story
has just started this year. The government who is still
doing the same thing. And the funny part is this,
(07:10):
even after all of that, even after the GDP data
is goed and the government is doing all of this,
the question still remains, why aren't companies investing? And the
finance minister who's known to ask this question, why isn't
Anuman flying, she's still asking the same question again, and
they're still wanting that to happen. And you know, we've
had these podcast conversations now for a while, since twenty nineteen,
(07:34):
this question has been there that the consumption in India
is weak and we need to figure out a way
to boost consumption. This is the closing on twenty twenty
five and we have tried all policy measures and consumption
is still weak while the GDP data is very rosy,
so somewhere there is some gap.
Speaker 3 (07:53):
Okay. So basically, if we look at the real GDP numbers,
something seems off because this is very contradictory to what
policymakers are doing. So if not the real GDP, what
should we be looking at to get a better sense
of the economy.
Speaker 4 (08:09):
Right, So you know, I repeatedly say that real GDP
is the right number to look at for economic growth.
And we've written many pieces about this that many people
have questioned, Even people like former Chief Economic Advisor of
India have questioned that India's GDP data is overstating India's
growth and some have actually looked at, you know, how
do you take away the effect of inflation? You know
(08:31):
that exact formula can be misleading. So at a time
when inflation for you and me might be four or
five percent, if you reduce only one person from inflation,
then even a eight percent nominal GDP can give you
seven percent real GDP growth. And somebody might say, but
if you are only reducing one obviously this will happen.
(08:52):
If you were to reduce something like four percent inflation
out of this, then the growth may fall to four percent.
That's roughly the calculation. Now, that is where where people
are beginning to ask, is there a better way to
look at India's GDP? And what I did in this
recent piece was to look at nominal GDP. This is
the observed value, right, There is no discrepancy, as it were,
(09:14):
on the face of it. On the observed value, because
that's the fact on the ground. So let's look at
what is the observed value and see what is happening.
And that is where I find that many of the
notions that we have that we are doing very well
start to break.
Speaker 3 (09:29):
Down, Yeah, and elaborate on that. Tell us what kind
of a picture does looking at nominal GDP give us?
What is it telling us that the real GDP numbers aren't.
Speaker 4 (09:39):
Yeah, So one thing to look at is that if
you'll just look at the breakup of where does growth
come from?
Speaker 3 (09:46):
So when you talk about.
Speaker 4 (09:47):
GDP, GDP is basically a collection of all the expenditures
that happen in an economy. Now, the biggest expenditure or
biggest engine of growth for the GDP of our country
is the private concersumption. Like all the money that you
and I spend in our personal capacities. You buy a
bar of chocolate, I buy a personal computer, all of
(10:08):
that goes into private personal consumption, and that aggregated that
demand is the personal consumption of the private demand in
the country, and that accounts for roughly you know, fifty
five to sixty percent of total GDP of the country.
And the second biggest engine, as it were, is the
expenditure that people businesses make towards investments in the economy.
(10:29):
You know, you have private sector firms starting a new
business or laying down a new factory, governments building a
new road, so all the expenditure that goes for that,
So that's the second BIX engine of growth.
Speaker 3 (10:44):
Right, And what does the data reveal about these two things?
About these two important factors.
Speaker 4 (10:50):
Now, the data shows that India's GDP, if you look
at it nominal GDP, it grew by eight point eight
percent in the first quarter.
Speaker 2 (10:58):
But and here is the rub.
Speaker 4 (11:00):
The two biggest engines of growth, which is the private
consumption and the expenditure towards investments, which together roughly account
for ninety percent of India's GDP, those two engines grew
at less than eight point eight percent, means they were
basically dragging down the overall GDP. So what was pulling
up the GDP? It was government's own expenditure. You know
(11:23):
what money government spends on its day to day functioning,
not for investments, right, Not the money that people spend
on their own not the money that businesses, private businesses
spend towards fresh investment. What is pulling up the economy
is government's own expenditure, you know, daily expenditure. So that
begs the question that if you were to take away
(11:45):
that fast growth of the government, then overall GDP nominal
GDP would be coming down. There is one more way
to look at nominal GDP. Nominal GDP gives the ceiling
for the country's total growth because typically in a country
like India, there will always be in inflation and back
of the envelope calculation always has been that you grow
(12:08):
at twelve percent nominal GDP, you have something like four
percent inflation in the country, you remove that and you
get eight percent GDP growth real GDP growth. Now, if
you are growing in nominal terms at only eight percent
or nine percent, and the inflation that you and I
face is typically four or five percent, then it starts to,
(12:30):
you know, make sense that maybe in real terms we
are not growing as fast as the formal numbers are showing,
you know, and that may have something to do with
how you deflate, how you take away the inflation from
nominal But those are all technical matters. For what matters
for us as consumers is that this is not fitting
in with our lived reality. The real GDP numbers and
(12:52):
the rosy real GDP numbers are not somehow fitting in
with our lived, everyday reality. That's why everybody is now
looking for different ways to understand what is happening in
the economy. And the biggest proof in this is that
policy makers seem to be knowing that there is weakness. Otherwise,
every passing year, the policymakers, either in election or in
(13:16):
budgets are finding ways to cut taxes, provide some kind
of relief right and make a lot.
Speaker 2 (13:22):
Of song and dance about it.
Speaker 4 (13:24):
But it's a tacit admission that even they know that
the economy is not as strong in real terms as the.
Speaker 2 (13:31):
Numbers may suggest.
Speaker 4 (13:32):
So they may defend it publicly, but somewhere the reality
is not matching up.
Speaker 3 (13:38):
I mean, obviously it's concerning that India's economy is not
doing as well as these numbers might reflect. But also
what concerns does it raise when everyone is looking at
a number that, instead of telling us the reality, is
painting a rosier picture.
Speaker 4 (13:56):
So this is again one topic that we've visited in
the that data is a very salient bit in policymaking,
and many of the listeners might also recall similar episodes
happening elsewhere in the world. You know, US President Donald
Trump recently fired the head of Bureau of Labor Statistics
(14:17):
because he didn't like the data or he had genuine
concerns about labor data not being good. But the question
of data and statistics and their sanctity is central to
what is happening in India. We have in the past
shown how many times the government itself has dragged down
(14:37):
or played down its own official surveys because it didn't
perhaps like that data and said that this data was
not of good quality, We didn't have a census at
the right time, and that even if you do a
census now, it will upset the whole comparison cycle. So
we have several glaring issues and can become a full
(14:58):
podcast in itself of what all we need to do
to set right that data issue. But if you do
not have updated or correct statistics, your policy making can
go totally ori and it can start by asking, you know,
you have to start by looking at each and every
data point. You know, do we have the right inflation data?
You know, when we say we have inflation of four percent,
(15:20):
then do we have the actual right number, because without that,
the GDP number may be affected. So it just starts
to you know, have all kinds of ramifications if you're
building blocks of data or not of the best quality.
And that's data quality has been a massive issue in
India almost now since twenty eleven twelve when we started
(15:41):
shifting away because we abandoned a lot of pre existing surveys.
So yeah, that concern carries on and it will have
impact on policy making.
Speaker 1 (15:55):
And next we talk about a case that at first
seemed like a series of unrelated family tragedies but has
now been uncovered as part of a major insurance camp.
It began as something that looked like a personal calamity,
three deaths in one family over just seven years, and
each attributed to either an accident or a sudden illness.
(16:17):
But when investigators and Uttar Pradesh began joining the dots,
they uncovered something far darker, a calculated web of deceit
and manipulation that had gone undetected for years.
Speaker 5 (16:30):
So in January this year, the Sumble Police had uncovered
this insurance mafia that was getting young men insured under
multiple policies and then mysteriously, these young men were dying
and in return there were people who were benefiting out
of these debts through the insurance payouts.
Speaker 1 (16:53):
This is the Indian expresses Saman Hussein, who reported on
the story for the paper.
Speaker 5 (16:58):
So after this they started a statewide crackdown of insurance scams.
For that they had reached out to insurance companies. They
had sent them notices asking them to send data on
deaths which occurred just a year after the policy was bought.
(17:19):
So in the list of names, the insurance company had
specifically said that Vishal single, this man's case is very
interesting and that they should look deeper into it. So
that is when his name had been highlighted to the police.
Speaker 1 (17:37):
Someone tells us that Vishal has now been arrested by
the Sumble police for allegedly murdering his parents and his
first wife to claim their life insurance money.
Speaker 5 (17:48):
So Vishal was basically this man in his late thirties
who was absolutely unemployed. He had a double story house,
a modest one, not a very fancy in this area
that's close to the cantonment in Meyrut, and there the
neighbors say that he used to mostly not talk to
(18:08):
anyone and even they preferred not to talk to him
because he used to always get into fights. There were
brides that were mysteriously coming and then leaving him within
a fraction of days. A lot of neighborhood fights also
he used to get into. And they say that his
background was such that he used to once back when
(18:30):
they used to live in a village in Harper, This
was before they moved to Meyrut. He used to scrub
dishes at a halwai's shop and he used to serve
tea at a tea stall. So the sudden wealth is
something that was very confusing for a lot of people
who had seen him gain over the years.
Speaker 1 (18:52):
And so it turns out that between twenty seventeen and
twenty twenty four, singles, mother, father, and his first wife
died in quick succession.
Speaker 5 (19:03):
So basically, after his father's case was highlighted by the
insurance companies, they started retracing Vishal's past.
Speaker 2 (19:12):
So his mother Prabadevi.
Speaker 5 (19:14):
Who had died in twenty seventeen, she had reportedly been
hit by an unknown vehicle. Then his father Mocasian, who
had died in twenty twenty four, also hit by an
unknown vehicle, and in each of these cases, Vishal would
somehow just survive with minor injuries. So back then in
twenty seventeen, as well as in April twenty twenty four
(19:36):
when his father had died, fires had been lodged, but
the issue was that there was nothing found in the case.
This was the Harper police and these cases were closed
with final reports. Later it turned out that this was
under a whole insurance mafia because when they retraced the
(19:58):
amount of money that he would get time somebody from
his family would die. That made the whole case look suspicious,
and also the amount of insurances that he was buying
right before the person's death. So on top of that,
there were other red flags as well. That he had
bought some four cars. All of these cars were bought
(20:19):
just a month before his father's death. So the question
was that a person who was basically unemployed, how was
he planning to repay the loan on these four cars.
Because these cars were bought in his father's name, and
he had taken a loan in his father's name to
buy these cars.
Speaker 2 (20:39):
The loan amount on all of these.
Speaker 5 (20:42):
Cars was cleared by the insurance companies and soon after
he ended up.
Speaker 2 (20:48):
Selling three of those cars.
Speaker 5 (20:49):
So other than the cars, he had bought a lot
of stuff in his father's name right before his death.
So this whole thing made it look very, very suspicious
for the police.
Speaker 2 (21:01):
They also set that.
Speaker 5 (21:03):
Back in April twenty twenty four, when his father was
admitted at a hospital after his accident, there was an
insurance company that had visited for a field visit because
Vishal had been claiming the payouts. So they saw that
his father was lying on a hospital bed and that
(21:24):
he did not even have a single scratch on his body,
the picture of which the insurance company has shared with
the police.
Speaker 2 (21:32):
So this was another red flag that.
Speaker 5 (21:34):
Made it look like these deaths were all planned and
that they were not accidents.
Speaker 1 (21:40):
In fact, what shocked investigators was the scale of his operation.
For example, his father, Muke single was insured under sixty
four different life insurance policies worth nearly fifty kuro rupees,
all naming Vishal as the sole nominee.
Speaker 5 (21:57):
So his father's case, this is the one that had
initially got the investigator's attention first, But if you will look,
it was a whole trail of policies. So before that
it had started with his mother. So the initial policy
that he had gotten and under his mother's name, it
(22:18):
was not an expensive policy at all. It was, in fact,
one of those government subsidized policies that you get, so
the payout was not much. But then he eventually started
using this money to buy more policies in future. So
then later he bought policies for his wife which were
worth much more. The wife was also disabled, so she
(22:43):
had policies in her name from before marriage as well
from that money. Later he started buying policies in his
father's name, So this is what the investigators are assuming.
But other than that, it's uncertain as to how he
was able to manage sixty four policies in total, and
that two in one person's name.
Speaker 1 (23:04):
Now, the turning point in this case came earlier this
year when Vischal's fourth wife, Shrea, escaped his house barefoot
with her child, shouting for help.
Speaker 5 (23:14):
So in between, he had two to three other wives
that the police and investigators are still not able to
get more information about because these women would get married
to him and then they would eventually leave within just
a fraction of days, all of them scared.
Speaker 2 (23:33):
As the neighbors used to say, so.
Speaker 5 (23:35):
All of these women are basically from somehow marginalized or
somehow how disadvantaged. So there is also a marriage broker
who used to help Mishall set up these marriages, who's
on the lookout by the police. Some of these wives
were basically factory workers. So this is all that's known
about them now by the time Shreya came. Shreya told
(23:58):
me that in the very beginning of their marriage itself,
he told her that he will have to kill his father.
So that is something that really alarmed her. He also
told her that he has done something similar in a
similar manner. He has killed other people in his family
in the past, and that now it's his father's turn
(24:19):
because he's bought a lot of things in his name
and now to clear the loan on those things that
he's bought, which included four cars, all Apple products possible
like a MacBook, two iPhone, EarPods, all of those things
to clear the loan, he needs to kill his father now.
So she told me that she said that I will
(24:41):
not let this happen, but he was like, if I
will not kill my father, then I'll have.
Speaker 2 (24:45):
To kill you.
Speaker 5 (24:46):
So she told me that she had to fight quite
a lot at her home to convince them that she
needs to return and that this man is dangerous. But
eventually she was able to convince her family that Vishal
is up to something.
Speaker 2 (25:00):
This was after he killed his father.
Speaker 5 (25:03):
But once, like Strea, left, she approached multiple authorities. She
wrote to the district police authorities, who took no action
in the case. Then she highlighted that no action is
being taken despite the complaints to the CMO office.
Speaker 2 (25:19):
Once again, a thing came out of it.
Speaker 5 (25:21):
But then when she approached the insurance companies, they were
the ones who helped the police reach Shia. So in turn,
this is how she was able to eventually help the probe.
Speaker 1 (25:37):
For investigators who were already probing a large scale insurance
short network. What up police says is the insurance mafia.
The similarities were impossible to ignore. Now someone tells us
that this network allegedly involved agents, hospital staff and beneficiaries
who would take out multiple insurance policies in the names
(25:58):
of family members and then staged their deaths to claim payouts.
Speaker 5 (26:04):
So in Sumble polices crackdown that has been a crackdown
that was across the state. The scam that has been
uncovered so far has reached around hundred crores, so it's
quite big.
Speaker 2 (26:16):
And the police was saying that most.
Speaker 5 (26:18):
Of these cases are around like the northern states of India.
So Uta Pradesha is one state where a lot of
insurance scams have been uncovered, So this includes areas like
Shamli harper Amroha.
Speaker 2 (26:32):
Then on top of that.
Speaker 5 (26:34):
There are certain cases that they've been able to solve
in other states as well, like Himachal and Udrakhunt.
Speaker 2 (26:40):
So it's quite big.
Speaker 5 (26:41):
It's something that's become very common, the police had told me.
Speaker 1 (26:50):
And in the end, we talk about peace after months
of conflict. Headlines from the Middle East are finally using
the word piece. But at the Gaza Peace Summit in
Egypt's Scherm l Shaikh, where hostages and detainees are being exchanged,
optimism is mixed with deep skepticism. As reported by the
(27:10):
Indian Expresses, Uneil Sase, the trus brokeered by the United
States and declared by President Donald Trump is only the
first step in his twenty point piece plan for the region.
Under the agreement, Israel released about two thousand Palestinian detainees,
while Hammas freed twenty surviving Israeli hostages and handed over
(27:31):
twenty eight bodies to the Red Cross. However, declaring this
as the end of the war in Gaza may be
the easy part. What comes next is far more complicated,
because there is still no clarity on Gaza's post war
administration or reconstruction. Sas highlights that the next stages of
Trump's plan involved disarming Hamas, security guarantees for Gaza, rebuilding
(27:56):
the enclave on a large scale, and the rehabilitation of
displaced residents, but the plan is vague about Palestinian statehood
and offers no clear commitment to it. Experts noted that
Summits optics may outweigh its substance, as the participating leaders,
including Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Nathan Yaho, lack a unified
(28:17):
post conflict vision. Palestinians were not directly involved in the
negotiations and were not represented at the table, raising concerns
about the legitimacy and sustainability of the agreement. Jonathan Conracus,
senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense and Democracies and
a former Israel Defense Forces spokesperson, said the truce would
(28:38):
remain a temporary cease fire if Hamas refused to disarm.
Another Hashmi, director of the Alvallet Center for Muslim Christian
Understanding at Georgetown University, said the fundamental issue of Israeli
occupation of Palestinian territories had not been addressed. SASI further
reports that Nathan Yahoo, facing domestic political and legal challenges,
(29:00):
may also have little incentive to sustain the peace effort.
Analysts suggest that either leader could later claim that Hamas
violated the agreement to justify abandoning the deal. You were
listening to Three Things by the Indian Express. Today's show
was edited and mixed by Savar and produced by Shishang
(29:22):
Hagov and me Ichasharma. If you like the show, do
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Speaker 1 (29:35):
You can also tweet us at Express Podcasts or write
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In this episode, we talk about a man who allegedly
killed his entire immediate family for the payout from their
insurance policies and why this may not be an isolated incident.
We also talk about a rare moment of optimism in
a two year conflict, as Israel and Hamas begin a
fragile truce under a deal broker by President Trump. But
(00:22):
we begin today by talking about the Indian economy and
why many experts are surprised by the fact that it
appears to be doing well. Hi, I'm Achasharma and you're
listening to Three Things the Indian Express New show. For
(00:43):
months now, official data has suggested that Indian economy is
doing well. Unlike many other countries, India's real GDP growth
numbers have been on the rise.
Speaker 2 (00:52):
For instance, in the first.
Speaker 1 (00:53):
Quarter of this year, the GDP growth rate stood at
seven point eight percent, which is a pretty good sign.
But for those who track these numbers closely, something doesn't
quite add up, because even though the data paints a
positive picture, the government's recent policy moves from tax reliefs
to targeted welfare schemes seem to signal economic stress, as
(01:15):
if people really need more support right now, So how
can the economy be doing well on paper and yet
the government's action reflect distress. To unpack this puzzle, my
colleague Shashang Bargav speaks to the Indian Expresses Udit Misra,
who writes on the economy for the paper.
Speaker 3 (01:32):
Okay, the first tell us, based on what is known
as real GDP, how well is India's economy doing? And
tell us why do you and why do others find
that surprising?
Speaker 2 (01:44):
Yeah?
Speaker 4 (01:45):
So you know, real GDP is looked at as the
key variable when you're talking about economic growth anywhere in
the world. And first of all, let's just understand what
is real GDP. Real GDP is a derived number. It's
not something that you actually go out and you know,
observe on the ground. What you observe on the ground
(02:06):
is nominal GDP. Right, It's the market price total value
of all goods and services in the country. Then you
take away the effect of inflation from it to understand
the real GDP. How many more trucks did you sell?
How many more spoons did India make? Instead of just
looking at total valuation of it because total valuation gets
(02:27):
affected by prices. Now, in terms of real GDP, India's
economy has been surprising on the upside. You know, many
of our listeners might recall we've had these conversations that
every quarter we find that India's real GDP is better
than what everybody expected, even the policymakers. So it's not
even surprising just the detractors. It is surprising even the
(02:49):
people in the government and in RBI. And that's been happening.
And the last set of data that came out at
end of August, which was for the first quarter of
this financial year, which is a May and June. So
for those three months, again, India's real GDP grew by
seven point eight percent. Now, this is a fantastic number
because the rest of the world or a comparable economies
(03:11):
are struggling to grow even at one or two percent.
Many are actually fighting contraction. So India's economy growing at
seven point eight percent is fantastic news.
Speaker 3 (03:20):
Yeah, I know that. Why is that a surprise? Why
does that surprise you? I mean, why can't India do
so well?
Speaker 4 (03:26):
Yeah, So this is the most interesting thing that if
you for a moment stop looking at just the GDP
data real GDP numbers and focus on what's happening on
the policy space.
Speaker 2 (03:36):
Then the noise is very different there.
Speaker 4 (03:39):
You will find that, you know, look at the last
one month, it's all been about the Prime Minister down
everybody saying it is a bachatutsu. You know, we have
cut GSD rates, we have given relief. Consumers can now consume,
you know, consumption levels may go up. And you just
look back a few months you will find that a
(04:00):
similar story was happening when the budget was announced, right,
and the income tax.
Speaker 3 (04:05):
Relief was given.
Speaker 4 (04:06):
And if you go back a couple of years you'll
again see again the income tax relief was given to
seven lac paranum, then it was raised to twelve black paranaum.
And in between, look at all the election news. All
our elections are now filled by news of economic dolls,
both the party in power and the party trying to dethrone,
regardless of which the party is, all parties are trying
(04:29):
to give some economic doll or the other, which the
Prime Minister calls reveries. So the news coming out of
those stories policy space is all about, Okay, people must
be going through a really tough phase, right and the
economy needs some kind of a boost or a booster
dos you know, some kind of a relief whereas the
GDP data all the time is showing very promising picture,
(04:51):
in fact over promising in some senses, because it's surprising
on the upside almost every time. And that's the odd thing.
Speaker 3 (05:00):
Saying that if people are doing well, if they are
in fact art maneuver, then why is the government going
out of its way to help them? Because the logic
one imagines is that if the economy is doing well,
then people are doing well. They should have money to spend.
They should not require relief packages from the government.
Speaker 4 (05:22):
Yes, I mean, there is a very simple logic that
if the economy is doing very well, the government doesn't
have to do much right, it can just you know,
take its share of taxes and carry on. But when
the economy struggles, and when we say economy struggles, we
basically are saying that, you know, people that do not
have enough money to spend, they are not doing so
well in terms of income. That is when the government
(05:44):
really comes into play. You know, they figure out policies
either giving tax breaks or spending more for the poor people.
You know, so both in terms of expenditure and say
and tax policy, government tries to figure out to solve
a way to boost the economy. So here is this
odd situation, which I say, the curious case that on
(06:04):
the one hand, the economy is doing very well, but
on the other government is trying to solve it when
perhaps there is no problem as it were.
Speaker 3 (06:12):
And couldn't it be that the GDP is doing well
because of these measures by the government, as in it
gave more money into the hands of people, boosted demand,
so people are buying more and that's how the economy
is growing.
Speaker 4 (06:25):
That is entirely possible that one could argue that it
is because what the government is doing that the economy
is doing so well. But again it's in the relative
measure you look at it. How it's happening. We are
coming out of a phase of high inflation. So typically
when there's a high inflation phase, you would not be
doing that. You know, a high inflation phase essentially means
(06:48):
that economy is doing well, you know, because there's a
lot of demand, you know, relative to supply. You know,
the supply is not able to provide for all the
demand that is high inflation. So in such a scenario
when even when we had high inflation or higher than
desired inflation till last year. Because the low inflation story
has just started this year. The government who is still
doing the same thing. And the funny part is this,
(07:10):
even after all of that, even after the GDP data
is goed and the government is doing all of this,
the question still remains, why aren't companies investing? And the
finance minister who's known to ask this question, why isn't
Anuman flying, she's still asking the same question again, and
they're still wanting that to happen. And you know, we've
had these podcast conversations now for a while, since twenty nineteen,
(07:34):
this question has been there that the consumption in India
is weak and we need to figure out a way
to boost consumption. This is the closing on twenty twenty
five and we have tried all policy measures and consumption
is still weak while the GDP data is very rosy,
so somewhere there is some gap.
Speaker 3 (07:53):
Okay. So basically, if we look at the real GDP numbers,
something seems off because this is very contradictory to what
policymakers are doing. So if not the real GDP, what
should we be looking at to get a better sense
of the economy.
Speaker 4 (08:09):
Right, So you know, I repeatedly say that real GDP
is the right number to look at for economic growth.
And we've written many pieces about this that many people
have questioned, Even people like former Chief Economic Advisor of
India have questioned that India's GDP data is overstating India's
growth and some have actually looked at, you know, how
do you take away the effect of inflation? You know
(08:31):
that exact formula can be misleading. So at a time
when inflation for you and me might be four or
five percent, if you reduce only one person from inflation,
then even a eight percent nominal GDP can give you
seven percent real GDP growth. And somebody might say, but
if you are only reducing one obviously this will happen.
(08:52):
If you were to reduce something like four percent inflation
out of this, then the growth may fall to four percent.
That's roughly the calculation. Now, that is where where people
are beginning to ask, is there a better way to
look at India's GDP? And what I did in this
recent piece was to look at nominal GDP. This is
the observed value, right, There is no discrepancy, as it were,
(09:14):
on the face of it. On the observed value, because
that's the fact on the ground. So let's look at
what is the observed value and see what is happening.
And that is where I find that many of the
notions that we have that we are doing very well
start to break.
Speaker 3 (09:29):
Down, Yeah, and elaborate on that. Tell us what kind
of a picture does looking at nominal GDP give us?
What is it telling us that the real GDP numbers aren't.
Speaker 4 (09:39):
Yeah, So one thing to look at is that if
you'll just look at the breakup of where does growth
come from?
Speaker 3 (09:46):
So when you talk about.
Speaker 4 (09:47):
GDP, GDP is basically a collection of all the expenditures
that happen in an economy. Now, the biggest expenditure or
biggest engine of growth for the GDP of our country
is the private concersumption. Like all the money that you
and I spend in our personal capacities. You buy a
bar of chocolate, I buy a personal computer, all of
(10:08):
that goes into private personal consumption, and that aggregated that
demand is the personal consumption of the private demand in
the country, and that accounts for roughly you know, fifty
five to sixty percent of total GDP of the country.
And the second biggest engine, as it were, is the
expenditure that people businesses make towards investments in the economy.
(10:29):
You know, you have private sector firms starting a new
business or laying down a new factory, governments building a
new road, so all the expenditure that goes for that,
So that's the second BIX engine of growth.
Speaker 3 (10:44):
Right, And what does the data reveal about these two things?
About these two important factors.
Speaker 4 (10:50):
Now, the data shows that India's GDP, if you look
at it nominal GDP, it grew by eight point eight
percent in the first quarter.
Speaker 2 (10:58):
But and here is the rub.
Speaker 4 (11:00):
The two biggest engines of growth, which is the private
consumption and the expenditure towards investments, which together roughly account
for ninety percent of India's GDP, those two engines grew
at less than eight point eight percent, means they were
basically dragging down the overall GDP. So what was pulling
up the GDP? It was government's own expenditure. You know
(11:23):
what money government spends on its day to day functioning,
not for investments, right, Not the money that people spend
on their own not the money that businesses, private businesses
spend towards fresh investment. What is pulling up the economy
is government's own expenditure, you know, daily expenditure. So that
begs the question that if you were to take away
(11:45):
that fast growth of the government, then overall GDP nominal
GDP would be coming down. There is one more way
to look at nominal GDP. Nominal GDP gives the ceiling
for the country's total growth because typically in a country
like India, there will always be in inflation and back
of the envelope calculation always has been that you grow
(12:08):
at twelve percent nominal GDP, you have something like four
percent inflation in the country, you remove that and you
get eight percent GDP growth real GDP growth. Now, if
you are growing in nominal terms at only eight percent
or nine percent, and the inflation that you and I
face is typically four or five percent, then it starts to,
(12:30):
you know, make sense that maybe in real terms we
are not growing as fast as the formal numbers are showing,
you know, and that may have something to do with
how you deflate, how you take away the inflation from
nominal But those are all technical matters. For what matters
for us as consumers is that this is not fitting
in with our lived reality. The real GDP numbers and
(12:52):
the rosy real GDP numbers are not somehow fitting in
with our lived, everyday reality. That's why everybody is now
looking for different ways to understand what is happening in
the economy. And the biggest proof in this is that
policy makers seem to be knowing that there is weakness. Otherwise,
every passing year, the policymakers, either in election or in
(13:16):
budgets are finding ways to cut taxes, provide some kind
of relief right and make a lot.
Speaker 2 (13:22):
Of song and dance about it.
Speaker 4 (13:24):
But it's a tacit admission that even they know that
the economy is not as strong in real terms as the.
Speaker 2 (13:31):
Numbers may suggest.
Speaker 4 (13:32):
So they may defend it publicly, but somewhere the reality
is not matching up.
Speaker 3 (13:38):
I mean, obviously it's concerning that India's economy is not
doing as well as these numbers might reflect. But also
what concerns does it raise when everyone is looking at
a number that, instead of telling us the reality, is
painting a rosier picture.
Speaker 4 (13:56):
So this is again one topic that we've visited in
the that data is a very salient bit in policymaking,
and many of the listeners might also recall similar episodes
happening elsewhere in the world. You know, US President Donald
Trump recently fired the head of Bureau of Labor Statistics
(14:17):
because he didn't like the data or he had genuine
concerns about labor data not being good. But the question
of data and statistics and their sanctity is central to
what is happening in India. We have in the past
shown how many times the government itself has dragged down
(14:37):
or played down its own official surveys because it didn't
perhaps like that data and said that this data was
not of good quality, We didn't have a census at
the right time, and that even if you do a
census now, it will upset the whole comparison cycle. So
we have several glaring issues and can become a full
(14:58):
podcast in itself of what all we need to do
to set right that data issue. But if you do
not have updated or correct statistics, your policy making can
go totally ori and it can start by asking, you know,
you have to start by looking at each and every
data point. You know, do we have the right inflation data?
You know, when we say we have inflation of four percent,
(15:20):
then do we have the actual right number, because without that,
the GDP number may be affected. So it just starts
to you know, have all kinds of ramifications if you're
building blocks of data or not of the best quality.
And that's data quality has been a massive issue in
India almost now since twenty eleven twelve when we started
(15:41):
shifting away because we abandoned a lot of pre existing surveys.
So yeah, that concern carries on and it will have
impact on policy making.
Speaker 1 (15:55):
And next we talk about a case that at first
seemed like a series of unrelated family tragedies but has
now been uncovered as part of a major insurance camp.
It began as something that looked like a personal calamity,
three deaths in one family over just seven years, and
each attributed to either an accident or a sudden illness.
(16:17):
But when investigators and Uttar Pradesh began joining the dots,
they uncovered something far darker, a calculated web of deceit
and manipulation that had gone undetected for years.
Speaker 5 (16:30):
So in January this year, the Sumble Police had uncovered
this insurance mafia that was getting young men insured under
multiple policies and then mysteriously, these young men were dying
and in return there were people who were benefiting out
of these debts through the insurance payouts.
Speaker 1 (16:53):
This is the Indian expresses Saman Hussein, who reported on
the story for the paper.
Speaker 5 (16:58):
So after this they started a statewide crackdown of insurance scams.
For that they had reached out to insurance companies. They
had sent them notices asking them to send data on
deaths which occurred just a year after the policy was bought.
(17:19):
So in the list of names, the insurance company had
specifically said that Vishal single, this man's case is very
interesting and that they should look deeper into it. So
that is when his name had been highlighted to the police.
Speaker 1 (17:37):
Someone tells us that Vishal has now been arrested by
the Sumble police for allegedly murdering his parents and his
first wife to claim their life insurance money.
Speaker 5 (17:48):
So Vishal was basically this man in his late thirties
who was absolutely unemployed. He had a double story house,
a modest one, not a very fancy in this area
that's close to the cantonment in Meyrut, and there the
neighbors say that he used to mostly not talk to
(18:08):
anyone and even they preferred not to talk to him
because he used to always get into fights. There were
brides that were mysteriously coming and then leaving him within
a fraction of days. A lot of neighborhood fights also
he used to get into. And they say that his
background was such that he used to once back when
(18:30):
they used to live in a village in Harper, This
was before they moved to Meyrut. He used to scrub
dishes at a halwai's shop and he used to serve
tea at a tea stall. So the sudden wealth is
something that was very confusing for a lot of people
who had seen him gain over the years.
Speaker 1 (18:52):
And so it turns out that between twenty seventeen and
twenty twenty four, singles, mother, father, and his first wife
died in quick succession.
Speaker 5 (19:03):
So basically, after his father's case was highlighted by the
insurance companies, they started retracing Vishal's past.
Speaker 2 (19:12):
So his mother Prabadevi.
Speaker 5 (19:14):
Who had died in twenty seventeen, she had reportedly been
hit by an unknown vehicle. Then his father Mocasian, who
had died in twenty twenty four, also hit by an
unknown vehicle, and in each of these cases, Vishal would
somehow just survive with minor injuries. So back then in
twenty seventeen, as well as in April twenty twenty four
(19:36):
when his father had died, fires had been lodged, but
the issue was that there was nothing found in the case.
This was the Harper police and these cases were closed
with final reports. Later it turned out that this was
under a whole insurance mafia because when they retraced the
(19:58):
amount of money that he would get time somebody from
his family would die. That made the whole case look suspicious,
and also the amount of insurances that he was buying
right before the person's death. So on top of that,
there were other red flags as well. That he had
bought some four cars. All of these cars were bought
(20:19):
just a month before his father's death. So the question
was that a person who was basically unemployed, how was
he planning to repay the loan on these four cars.
Because these cars were bought in his father's name, and
he had taken a loan in his father's name to
buy these cars.
Speaker 2 (20:39):
The loan amount on all of these.
Speaker 5 (20:42):
Cars was cleared by the insurance companies and soon after
he ended up.
Speaker 2 (20:48):
Selling three of those cars.
Speaker 5 (20:49):
So other than the cars, he had bought a lot
of stuff in his father's name right before his death.
So this whole thing made it look very, very suspicious
for the police.
Speaker 2 (21:01):
They also set that.
Speaker 5 (21:03):
Back in April twenty twenty four, when his father was
admitted at a hospital after his accident, there was an
insurance company that had visited for a field visit because
Vishal had been claiming the payouts. So they saw that
his father was lying on a hospital bed and that
(21:24):
he did not even have a single scratch on his body,
the picture of which the insurance company has shared with
the police.
Speaker 2 (21:32):
So this was another red flag that.
Speaker 5 (21:34):
Made it look like these deaths were all planned and
that they were not accidents.
Speaker 1 (21:40):
In fact, what shocked investigators was the scale of his operation.
For example, his father, Muke single was insured under sixty
four different life insurance policies worth nearly fifty kuro rupees,
all naming Vishal as the sole nominee.
Speaker 5 (21:57):
So his father's case, this is the one that had
initially got the investigator's attention first, But if you will look,
it was a whole trail of policies. So before that
it had started with his mother. So the initial policy
that he had gotten and under his mother's name, it
(22:18):
was not an expensive policy at all. It was, in fact,
one of those government subsidized policies that you get, so
the payout was not much. But then he eventually started
using this money to buy more policies in future. So
then later he bought policies for his wife which were
worth much more. The wife was also disabled, so she
(22:43):
had policies in her name from before marriage as well
from that money. Later he started buying policies in his
father's name, So this is what the investigators are assuming.
But other than that, it's uncertain as to how he
was able to manage sixty four policies in total, and
that two in one person's name.
Speaker 1 (23:04):
Now, the turning point in this case came earlier this
year when Vischal's fourth wife, Shrea, escaped his house barefoot
with her child, shouting for help.
Speaker 5 (23:14):
So in between, he had two to three other wives
that the police and investigators are still not able to
get more information about because these women would get married
to him and then they would eventually leave within just
a fraction of days, all of them scared.
Speaker 2 (23:33):
As the neighbors used to say, so.
Speaker 5 (23:35):
All of these women are basically from somehow marginalized or
somehow how disadvantaged. So there is also a marriage broker
who used to help Mishall set up these marriages, who's
on the lookout by the police. Some of these wives
were basically factory workers. So this is all that's known
about them now by the time Shreya came. Shreya told
(23:58):
me that in the very beginning of their marriage itself,
he told her that he will have to kill his father.
So that is something that really alarmed her. He also
told her that he has done something similar in a
similar manner. He has killed other people in his family
in the past, and that now it's his father's turn
(24:19):
because he's bought a lot of things in his name
and now to clear the loan on those things that
he's bought, which included four cars, all Apple products possible
like a MacBook, two iPhone, EarPods, all of those things
to clear the loan, he needs to kill his father now.
So she told me that she said that I will
(24:41):
not let this happen, but he was like, if I
will not kill my father, then I'll have.
Speaker 2 (24:45):
To kill you.
Speaker 5 (24:46):
So she told me that she had to fight quite
a lot at her home to convince them that she
needs to return and that this man is dangerous. But
eventually she was able to convince her family that Vishal
is up to something.
Speaker 2 (25:00):
This was after he killed his father.
Speaker 5 (25:03):
But once, like Strea, left, she approached multiple authorities. She
wrote to the district police authorities, who took no action
in the case. Then she highlighted that no action is
being taken despite the complaints to the CMO office.
Speaker 2 (25:19):
Once again, a thing came out of it.
Speaker 5 (25:21):
But then when she approached the insurance companies, they were
the ones who helped the police reach Shia. So in turn,
this is how she was able to eventually help the probe.
Speaker 1 (25:37):
For investigators who were already probing a large scale insurance
short network. What up police says is the insurance mafia.
The similarities were impossible to ignore. Now someone tells us
that this network allegedly involved agents, hospital staff and beneficiaries
who would take out multiple insurance policies in the names
(25:58):
of family members and then staged their deaths to claim payouts.
Speaker 5 (26:04):
So in Sumble polices crackdown that has been a crackdown
that was across the state. The scam that has been
uncovered so far has reached around hundred crores, so it's
quite big.
Speaker 2 (26:16):
And the police was saying that most.
Speaker 5 (26:18):
Of these cases are around like the northern states of India.
So Uta Pradesha is one state where a lot of
insurance scams have been uncovered, So this includes areas like
Shamli harper Amroha.
Speaker 2 (26:32):
Then on top of that.
Speaker 5 (26:34):
There are certain cases that they've been able to solve
in other states as well, like Himachal and Udrakhunt.
Speaker 2 (26:40):
So it's quite big.
Speaker 5 (26:41):
It's something that's become very common, the police had told me.
Speaker 1 (26:50):
And in the end, we talk about peace after months
of conflict. Headlines from the Middle East are finally using
the word piece. But at the Gaza Peace Summit in
Egypt's Scherm l Shaikh, where hostages and detainees are being exchanged,
optimism is mixed with deep skepticism. As reported by the
(27:10):
Indian Expresses, Uneil Sase, the trus brokeered by the United
States and declared by President Donald Trump is only the
first step in his twenty point piece plan for the region.
Under the agreement, Israel released about two thousand Palestinian detainees,
while Hammas freed twenty surviving Israeli hostages and handed over
(27:31):
twenty eight bodies to the Red Cross. However, declaring this
as the end of the war in Gaza may be
the easy part. What comes next is far more complicated,
because there is still no clarity on Gaza's post war
administration or reconstruction. Sas highlights that the next stages of
Trump's plan involved disarming Hamas, security guarantees for Gaza, rebuilding
(27:56):
the enclave on a large scale, and the rehabilitation of
displaced residents, but the plan is vague about Palestinian statehood
and offers no clear commitment to it. Experts noted that
Summits optics may outweigh its substance, as the participating leaders,
including Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Nathan Yaho, lack a unified
(28:17):
post conflict vision. Palestinians were not directly involved in the
negotiations and were not represented at the table, raising concerns
about the legitimacy and sustainability of the agreement. Jonathan Conracus,
senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense and Democracies and
a former Israel Defense Forces spokesperson, said the truce would
(28:38):
remain a temporary cease fire if Hamas refused to disarm.
Another Hashmi, director of the Alvallet Center for Muslim Christian
Understanding at Georgetown University, said the fundamental issue of Israeli
occupation of Palestinian territories had not been addressed. SASI further
reports that Nathan Yahoo, facing domestic political and legal challenges,
(29:00):
may also have little incentive to sustain the peace effort.
Analysts suggest that either leader could later claim that Hamas
violated the agreement to justify abandoning the deal. You were
listening to Three Things by the Indian Express. Today's show
was edited and mixed by Savar and produced by Shishang
(29:22):
Hagov and me Ichasharma. If you like the show, do
subscribe to us wherever you get your podcast. You can
also recommend it to someone you think may like it,
with a friend or in your family.
Speaker 2 (29:32):
This is the best way for people to get to
know about us.
Speaker 1 (29:35):
You can also tweet us at Express Podcasts or write
to us at podcast at Indianexpress dot com.
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