Week Ending 03_07_2025 Stock Market Recap Ep10

There’s one thing the market hates more than anything else and it’s getting hit with A LOT of this very thing! What does market hate more than anything? TUNE IN TO FIND OUT!

Episode Transcript

(00:34):
Hello And welcome to
this week's edition of The Big Money Report. I'm your host,
David Boothe, President and Financial Advisor at BIG Investment
Services. That's B-I-G, Boothe Investment Group.
We're a full-service financial advisory based out of Dover, Delaware, serving
clients all across America. And

(00:56):
you can read all about us at abigplan.com. That's www.abigplan.com. I
like to put the show together once a week just to give you a recap of the week behind.
and a peek at the week and weeks to come, trying to
keep you up to speed with you and your money. And we're glad you're
with us today. It is Friday, March 7th, 2025. And

(01:18):
wow, what a beat down on Wall Street this
week. You know, there is one thing the market hates
above all other things. There's one thing the market absolutely hates
and that's uncertainty. And we have got
a ton of it right now. I mean, just take your pick.

(01:39):
The market can work with good news and the market can work with bad news.
Just dish it out, get it over with, rip off the Band-Aid. But
the market cannot work with uncertainty. That's what
it just hates the most. I have to say, I'm really,
really disappointed with the execution of
these tariff rollouts. I've seen a couple of hits and misses

(02:01):
here in the first six weeks of the Trump administration. Some of the layoffs,
you know, it seemed like they got a little too aggressive and they had to bring people back and
maybe some things along those lines. Well, you know, individual people, maybe
it's kind of hard to pick through all of that and narrow all that down. But when it comes to these tariffs,
The first Trump administration, they put some things out like over
a weekend, not well thought out. And all of a sudden they had to

(02:22):
make exceptions, roll things back. And it was really sloppy. I thought,
well, so far it seems like they're executing better. I would expect
this tariff plan to be better as well. And it
has not, it's just been a mess. And
quite frankly, as I said, markets hate uncertainty and you
just don't know what's going to come next. Do we have them? Don't we have them? Is

(02:42):
it on everything? Is it on some things? Is it gonna be now? Is it gonna be a
month from now? I mean, it's just, it's really been chaotic to say the least. And
the market's reacting to that, reacting very poorly to it. Look,
I understand the necessity of it. We're being taken advantage of quite
a bit by other countries. They're tariffing us quite a bit on
a lot of different things, and we need to level the playing field. I get all of

(03:02):
that, but I am disappointed that, for example, these
25% tariffs going to place in Canada and Mexico And then just
days later, there's exceptions being made to the automotive industry. Did
we not have discussions with the automotive industry before doing this?
I'm just kind of like scratching my head a little bit. So anyway, I'll stop
complaining. I say, we had a good time this week. Yeah, that's right. I'll

(03:24):
tell you what's going on here. So let's talk about the numbers first. As I said, the market
took a beat down. Dow Jones down 2.3% this week. S&P 500 down
3% this week. The
NASDAQ composite down 3 1⁄2, and the Russell small cap index down
4% on the week. So all major indices getting hammered pretty
badly. Volatility index, as you might expect, shot

(03:44):
up quite a bit this week, up 19%. It was up more. It's
pulled back quite a bit here to the end of the week. And then looking at
long-term bonds as measured by the ETLT, they were down too. They
were down 2 1⁄2% this week, so they sold off some as well. And
then we take a look at the sectors, everything except defensives did
very poorly. So staples were only down 0.2%. They

(04:06):
held up pretty well. Healthcare was up 0.2%. So
it did very well. Two very defensive areas of the market. Utilities, which
are usually a defensive area, did not do well. Again, I
think some of that is because utilities got ahead of themselves with
all of this artificial intelligence. push here that's been happening
with this talk of increased power demand, et cetera. So it didn't perform so

(04:28):
hot. All the other sectors were down two to 5%. Financials
took a hit this week. I was kind of surprised to see that. I think it's just some excessive
profit taking that's been a really hot sector so far a
year to date has been financials. And they got hit kind of hard this week
down 5.8%, yet they're still up 1.6% year
to date, while the S&P 500 is down 1.8% year to

(04:49):
date. So still up on the year, even though they gave quite a bit back
this week. And then we take a look at gold and silver. Gold was
up 1.9, silver up four and a half. So they were
actually constructive while everything else was not so constructive to
say the least. So look, there's a lot of things that we talked about
towards the end of the year coming into this year. things that I just haven't

(05:09):
felt real comfortable with. A lot of that has to do with earnings. I
felt that the rate of change for earnings expectations was accelerating
to the downside in a way that I did not like to see. And
as we've heard these reports come out this over the last couple of weeks,
we're hearing just a lot of guidance that just isn't where investors or
market participants expect them to be. There are stocks out there that have

(05:31):
had beats and raises on guidance, beating on top line
revenue, beating on bottom line and raising guidance. You know, Marvell Technologies,
that's one of the chip stocks we have in our most aggressive model. They
had a beat, they had a raise, but it just wasn't a raise that was big
enough, right? The raise wasn't big enough. The market wanted more.
They want the cover to be knocked off the ball on these things. And if you're not

(05:53):
knocking the cover off the ball, The market's viewing that the
same as a failure, same thing with CrowdStrike. So we're
seeing some hits to some of the areas of the market where the market is just not
happy with the expectations moving forward. They
want to have bigger expectations. They want guidance to be accelerating to
the upside and they've not been real happy. So that

(06:13):
has been playing a role. And then of course, it's just been tariffs. It's been
tariffs, tariffs, tariffs, been knocking the market all around. So the market's just
had a really crazy week. We've been bouncing around a real key
level. I think I mentioned to you last week, the 200-day moving average, and
we've been watching that very closely. Well, on Tuesday morning, the
market got right down to that 200-day moving average.

(06:34):
Tuesday morning was very ugly. The volatility index
was off the chart. I had spent a lot of time Monday night,
Tuesday morning, however you wanna look at it, once you pass 12 o'clock, you're
into the next day, I guess. But anyway, We really got our game plan together.
Like it was really time to do some buying. So just double-checked everything, dotted
the I's, crossed the T's. And the market was really getting hit hard

(06:55):
on Tuesday morning. We stepped in and did some buying. We've got cash.
We've had cash on hand waiting for the opportunity. The
opportunity was there. So we stepped in and we bought some Ulta
Beauty, right? I've been talking about that one for a while. We were able to jump in,
buy that at $344 a share. I finished the week at $355 a share. You
know, I'm sure Farrah Dill, I think I've talked about her before the 10 year

(07:18):
old soon to be 11. As a matter of fact, early happy birthday to Farrah
is coming up in next week. She's been talking about Ulta beauty and
how much she enjoys it. So now it's a part of our models. So I look, I'm not too proud
to take investment tips from a 10 year old. No, not at all. Hey,
Uber. We've got it in our models. Uber is re-rating. What
do I mean by that? The market, the street is getting their head

(07:39):
on straight in regards to Uber and realize it's undervalued and the stock's really
starting to move and a lot of big money's getting behind it. So I've
been looking for an opportunity to add to it. I missed an opportunity weeks
ago. I wasn't going to miss it again. So Tuesday morning, we bought some
more Uber. That's 72 and change. It's finished a week at
76. We bought more AMD, which I think is a great chip company,

(08:01):
undervalued with a great CEO, very well diversified. It's not just
like a one trick pony, like some other chip companies
out there with all the focus just on AI and AI alone. AMD
is very well diversified. We sold a big chunk of AMD March
of last year for just under 210 bucks. We backed up the truck. and

(08:22):
loaded up with some more Tuesday morning at 97, and it
finished the week at 100. And also for the most aggressive models,
not only did we buy some Ulta Beauty, we bought something called Oddity. It's
like a health and beauty company that's really taken things
by storm via the internet. Could be a bit of a disruptor. Not
quite right for the moderate models as of yet, but I thought for

(08:44):
the aggressive models, it was worth taking a shot. And then I looked, and then I added money to
all the smaller accounts that were using the indexes and whatnot. We added
money to the S&P 500 this week. We threw some money in there. Am
I early? I don't know. I don't know for sure, but I know this, the market
went down. It got close to that 200 day moving average and
it bounced. and then it was choppy, came down again Thursday

(09:05):
morning, Thursday afternoon, I guess I should say, down around that
200-day moving average, actually breached it, came right back above
it. And then on Friday, Friday morning, mid-morning, whatever,
the market was rolling over pretty hard, and it went well below
the 200-day moving average and bounced again. So let me explain something to you about
these moving averages. And the 200-day is really looked at as one

(09:26):
of the most important moving averages in the market. When the markets or
any individual stock is under its 200-day moving average, that's
just not a good place to be. Things are kind of ugly when you're down there. But
moving averages like the 200-day, you look at them not as a concrete
floor of support, but more like a
mattress. I was having a conversation with a client about this earlier in the week.

(09:48):
when the markets or an individual stock comes down that 200-day, it's okay
if they breach it, right? It's okay if they kind of fall in and
sink into the mattress, as long as they bounce back up, okay?
As long as they bounce back up, that's what we're looking for. And so far
this week, it's bounced and bounced and bounced, including today, it was
well below the 200-day moving average and then finished well above it, okay?

(10:09):
So at 5,770, it's a close on the S&P 500, 200 days at 5,730. David,
why do you always talk about the S&P? Why not the Dow Jones? Because the Dow Jones is irrelevant.
It means nothing. It's 30 stocks. It's not a
good picture of the market. That's not what we want to base
any decisions on, the Dow Jones. I look at it from the standpoint of comparisons or

(10:30):
looking at really conservative portfolios, because there's a lot of conservative stocks in
the Dow Jones. It's not something that we use to measure anything by
because it's just statistically irrelevant. So the S&P held
that 200 day this week. We had also some of their washed out
metrics this week. You know, we had that S&P oscillator. I've talked to
you about that oscillator. We got that negative five this

(10:50):
week. That's a really good space or place to step
in and do some buying. If it's a positive five, it's a good place to
do some selling. So negative five on the S&P Oscillator, we
wanted to buy that. We got a DeMarc nine
countdown this week. That is really strong. Just a couple of
days ago, March 5th, we got that DeMarc nine countdown. And

(11:11):
that's usually a good indication the market may be
nearing exhaustion, may be a turning point. Now, DeMarc has
another level of countdown, and that's a 13 count.
And right now we are at a five on that. Hey,
there may be some more days, right? We may get some more weakness and get a
13 out of this, but sometimes it turns on the nine. So I don't want

(11:33):
to mess around. I don't want to mess around. I told you a couple of weeks ago, we
had that confirmed breakout over 6100. I
just don't want to be too cute. I don't want to mess around. I don't think
this is it. I don't think this is the quote unquote big one where the
market's rolling over into a bear market just yet. There's still too many
good things going on in the economy. So we took it as an opportunity to

(11:54):
do some buying. You're just trying to be constructive. Now, all that
said, there is one indicator that is my
line in the sand. It is my line in
the sand. And if we break that indicator, I'm
raising cash and I'm getting super defensive. Now, the key to that
one is it's a month end indicator. So you
can break it throughout the course of the month, in the middle of the month, whatever, it doesn't matter.

(12:18):
It's where does the month finish? And it
has been really spot on over the last, well, a hundred years,
if you go back and you measure it over time. I mean, there's some times where it
breaks it and the market drops further, but doesn't drop that far. But
before every big, big crash, every major downturn
in the market, this indicator gets broken first. So I'm

(12:39):
watching that closely, but we've still got a few weeks away before that
really comes into play. So right now we want to continue being constructive and
that's exactly what we're doing. Hey, I think
it's good times. We stepped in, bought some stocks, and made some
money this week. Are you listening to the news? You hear, oh, the market, the
sky is falling. Oh my gosh, run for the hills. And what
do we do? We made some money, baby, because that's what

(13:02):
we do. So I'm going to go ahead and wrap up. Between now
and next we meet, as you're thinking about your future, your long-term goals, all the
things you want to do with you and your money. Maybe
it is retire a little early. Buy that second house. Take
that big trip. Pay for college or a wedding. Hey, you know what your goals are.
Don't just think about it. Think big. Think B-I-G. And

(13:25):
Thank you for listening to this week's edition of the Big Money Report with
your host, David Boothe, President and Financial Advisor at
BIG Investment Services. For more information on BIG and
how you can access their planning and investment management services, visit
them at abigplan.com. That's abigplan.com. Or
call them toll free at 866-946-PLAN. That's 866-946-7526. The

(13:54):
foregoing content reflects the opinions of David Boothe and Boothe Investment Group,
Inc., and is subject to change at any time without notice. There's no guarantee
that the statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be
correct. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and
should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the
purchase or sale of any security. All investing involves risk, including the
potential for loss of principal. There is no guarantee that any investment plan or