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March 29, 2025 15 mins
There’s one word for the market action this week. UGLY. It may be time for a tweak in strategy. How so? TUNE IN TO FIND OUT!
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Episode Transcript

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(00:34):
Hello and welcome
to this week's edition of the Big Money Report. I'm
your host, David Boothe, President and Financial Advisor at
BIG Investment Services. That's BIG,
Boothe Investment Group. We're a full-service financial advisory
based out of Dover, Delaware, serving clients all across

(00:56):
America. And you can read all about us at abigplan.com. That's
www.abigplan.com. I
like to put this show together once a week just to give you a recap of
the week behind and a peek at the week and weeks to
come, trying to keep you up to speed with you and your
money. And we're glad you're with us today. It's Friday, March 28th,

(01:20):
2025. Look, folks, it was an ugly week, an ugly week on
Wall Street this week. I did not like the price action that we saw.
So let's just jump into the numbers and we'll talk more about it. Dow Jones down
0.9% this week, almost down 1%. S&P 500 down 1.5% this
week. The Nasdaq Composite down 2.5. And the Russell Small
Cap Index down 1.6% on the week. Volatility Index,

(01:42):
as you might expect, jumped a bit higher this week, up 12.2%, up
15% today, just on Friday. Friday was an ugly day. Just a really ugly day
here on Friday. Volatility Index still not up as high as it could be. It's
up 21.6. I actually thought it had been higher today than it was, but
nonetheless, it did spike. And long-term bonds, did they help us out
this week? No, not really. They were down half a percent also, down 0.6% on

(02:05):
the week. So not providing a whole lot of cushion there, not
a lot of buffer, not the kind of buffer you'd like to see on a week as ugly
as this one. So looking at the sectors, I'm not gonna go through them
all for you. I want to just kind of narrow it down to say this. The defensive areas
are the ones that are doing the best, right? And you look year to date. Right now, the S&P
500 is down 5.1% on the year. Utilities are up 3% on the year. Staples are

(02:25):
up 2.2. Energy's up 7.9. Healthcare's up 5. Energy,
sometimes defensive, sometimes not, but the other one's always defensive. And
this is very classic look here, and I don't like it. It's
a look that you tend to see before a bigger bear market. You

(02:45):
see the defensives doing really, really well and everything else getting hammered. And
eventually, they give up the ghost as well, and it all gets
hammered, right? The defensives do well to a point, and then they
also get crushed. What happens is you got a lot of mutual fund managers out there
that have parameters that they have to stick to. They
can't go to cash. They can't implement other strategies. They

(03:06):
are stuck having to deal with all stock all the time. And when they get scared, they
run to the defensives. They run to staples and healthcare and things
like that, utilities. And I think we're seeing that happen at the
moment. Gold and silver were up this week, gold up 2%, silver
up 3.2, and they're both up 17% on the year. All
right, so what's moving markets? Well, the market started the week off great.

(03:27):
I mentioned last week, everything looked poised for a bounce, maybe
a bounce in two month end. Well, it certainly did start off that
way. The market ripped higher on Monday and
stayed up there for a couple of days, got above its 200 day moving average.
That's a really important key level. The
200-day moving average, the market did get up and above that for

(03:47):
a couple of days, but then it failed miserably.
And you don't like to see that, not a miserable failure.
And it was a miserable failure. The market rolled over hard and finished well
off the 200-day moving average by the end of the week. What caused it?
Tariffs, tariffs. President Trump on Wednesday announced

(04:08):
25% tariffs on automobiles being made outside of the country, being imported
into the United States. I don't think the market was expecting it
to be so strong and firm. I mean, he
said during his press conference that they are permanent, no
plans for any negotiating on these tariffs, really rocked the
markets pretty hard. Didn't like to see it at all. Look, I
understand that if you want to use tariffs for negotiating tactics, you

(04:31):
can't say that. So maybe there's still room there, but
maybe there isn't. He keeps saying tariffs are the best word in the
English language and all the money we're going to get from tariffs, so on
and so forth. So I'm not so 100% convinced he's
going to be negotiating away a lot of these tariffs. And I don't think
the market's convinced of that either. So that was announced and I'll tell you something else

(04:51):
that I heard. I think it was that press conference or maybe another one. I consume so much
news in the course of the week, I can't keep track, but he He was asked by a reporter about
the stock market. Remember, the first time Trump was in office, he talked a
lot about the stock market. President Trump looked at that as
a measure of how well he was doing. The market was
up, he felt things were good, and if it was down, he felt the market didn't

(05:12):
like what he was doing. He was asked about that because so far
in his second term, he hasn't seemed to care one iota about the market. He's
actually said things to that extent. So anyway, he was asked
and he said, it'll take care of itself. I'm worried about the jobs. I only
care about the jobs, all that stuff will work itself out. I've been listening to this guy,
and he's reiterating he doesn't care about what the market does. I'm not

(05:32):
so sure that he's going to try to change course just to get the market to
lift back up again. So what does all this mean? It
means the market has a sloppy week. It rolled over hard, came
down hard from Wednesday through Friday, and Friday was just an ugly
day, very ugly day, down 2% on the
S&P just in a day's time. That's a pretty ugly move. Doesn't
happen very often. So Monday is the last

(05:55):
day of the month. I've been telling you, I've been tracking this month end indicator
very closely. It's a line in the sand for me. If
the market's above it, I'm good. If it's below it, I'm not. We
were above it earlier in the week, but now we are well below it. And
I don't think the market can do this amount of heavy lifting in
a single day. It'd have to go up so much on Monday to

(06:17):
reclaim it. I just don't think it's very likely at this point in time. I
think it's highly unlikely. So I've been working hard this week
on narrowing down our plan B. Because listen, when you look
at this indicator, and I can't tell you what it is, because I have competition that listens
to this show. I don't mind them listening to the show, but I can't tell them everything that
I do, right? I can't teach them everything because they'll try to use
it. So looking at this month-end indicator, I went through 100 years, deep dive, 100 years

(06:40):
looking at this. There's
only been three times over 100 years where it was just
a blip, where it just barely broke it and came right back above it again. That
was 1926, 1943, and 1994, although
94, it stayed ugly all year long. Nothing good happened after
it, but nothing bad happened after it either. It just stayed ugly all year. The

(07:02):
other two years, it did bounce up pretty strongly afterwards. There was a pretty
good delayed reaction, 1965, 1971, where it broke
this indicator and it took more time before the ugliness to really happen. But
all the other times, all the other times when it breaks this indicator, there's
more pain to come. Now, sometimes this pain comes very quickly,
like 2020, right? The market broke that indicator that

(07:25):
closed in February in 2020. And I
raised cash up immediately, tons of cash. Actually, at
the end of the day that day, before the market even closed, I raised up cash. I
did more the very next day. The market proceeded to drop on
30%. from that moment moving forward and we had a bunch of cash on hand
that we were able to use to buy stocks. So that big move, that big move

(07:46):
down happened all within a month. Other
times it takes more time. It can be spread out over months or
even the course of a year. My point being is there's usually more pain to
come when this happens. So you listen to this podcast, you
hear that quote from Tombstone. You're gonna do something and you're just
gonna stand there and bleed. Well, we're going to do something because
that's what we do. We don't just sit here and say, oh, buy and hold it

(08:09):
all come back. A monkey can do that, right? We
want to be proactive. Listen, I saw a sentiment indicator from
last week, an investor sentiment indicator. That's a really good
one. It's a very important one to track. It was lower than
it was at the end of the 08, 09 bear market. It
was lower than the end of the 08-09 bear market where

(08:30):
the S&P 500 was down 56%. People
were losing their homes, losing value in their homes, hand over
fist. And there's a worse sentiment indicator than
this past week. It was worse than it was at the end of that 08-09 market
in March of 2009. That's just shocking to me. But
that's where people's heads are. They've lost their minds of everything that's going

(08:50):
on. and it's showing in the data. And some of
this soft data, some of these sentiment things are starting to carry over
into the hard data. We're starting to see that as well. So we want to be
proactive and be smart about all of this, and we can. The
beautiful thing is we're in a position where we can make adjustments.
Look, we're up on the year. Our largest models, our most popular

(09:11):
models, common models that most of our clients have are up and they're up nicely
on the year. So even when the market down 5%, we're doing quite
well. Only a couple of models are down and they're not down that much. Our
most aggressive model for large investors, which there's only a handful of
people in that one, it's designed to directly compete against
the S&P 500. It's down 1%. And the smaller models,

(09:33):
much smaller models that don't have individual stocks, They're invested
into indices like the S&P 500. They're tracking a
little bit more closely to the S&P. They're down about 2%. But for
the most part, everything is up and up nicely. So we have got flexibility to
make some big changes and just kind of hunker down in
a way that will protect us if this market decides to get it much uglier.

(09:54):
Without hurting us, without hurting us, this is important if
the market decides to turn and go up. Look, April 2nd
is coming next week. All this reciprocal tariff information is going to come out.
The market could bounce on that. And then, you know what, maybe this is a retest of
the lows from two weeks ago, and maybe we bounce and we don't look back again. Maybe
we just rip higher. Maybe that happens. But as I said,

(10:14):
the only times this month end indicator have ever broken the line
and it was a blip and only a blip were twice 1926 and
1943. So I'm just not going to take that bet because it's broken it
lots of times. And when it has, it's gone a lot lower. So we're
going to enact plan B. and just be
prepared for more pain to come. Because listen, there's other

(10:36):
things happening too, right? We've had earnings reports that have included
some first quarter earnings that have not been good, have not been good. And these companies,
they know that the environment is uncertain and they're taking
advantage of it and they're giving terrible guidance. And if that's any
indication of what's to come starting the second week of April, I think
this earning season could be a really rough ride. So we just want

(10:57):
to be prepared. I've done a lot of work this week. I've been having a lot of
meetings with some of the top managed future strategies
in the country or in the world, if you will. So I've had meetings with their
teams, done deep dives on the products that they've got. And
I know which one I'm going to use. I can't talk about it until I buy it. So I'll
maybe be talking about it after the fact, but what are

(11:18):
managed features? In essence, these are trend following strategies
that are going to move with the trend. Now there are some that do a lot of shorting
of stocks. They try to track hedge funds. I'm not so big on
those guys because they tend to really underperform terribly.
If the market turns and goes higher, the market's doing well, they tend to really underperform.
I like something that's going to be uncorrelated with the market, but not

(11:40):
because it's trying to bet against it all the time because it's completely not
invested in the market, right? It's got nothing to do with the market. So I'm
looking at strategies that are going to be focused on metals,
gold, silver, things like that, other commodities, oil,
cocoa, coffee, all these types of things, currencies and
treasuries, right? Things along these lines. So this gives us a really good

(12:01):
diversifier. in the portfolio, so if the
market really starts to get ugly and really starts to turn
harder and go much lower, if we do start to form here
a bear market or even slip into recession and things of this nature,
this should be a really good diversifier in a portfolio. If you look
at the historical data on these things, it's just a great way to

(12:21):
hedge in bad times. And if we can use the right one, which
is why I've been working so hard this week to determine, If we can use the
right one, then even if the worst does not develop and
the market does turn and go higher, this can still do just
fine. Okay. The one I'm looking at had a great return last
year when the market was up a lot as well, and it had nothing to do with the

(12:41):
stock market. It was not invested anywhere near the market, had nothing
to do with it whatsoever, yet it performed very, very well. Had a
great meeting with the management team today. And I think that's what we're going to be implementing here
moving forward into next week. So. The market doesn't like it's going
to do what I needed it to do. It was poised to do it. It started to
do it, and then it got smacked down and smacked down hard. So

(13:03):
we, at this point in time, want to put things in place to
just be prepared for whatever may come our way moving forward. And
that's what we'll be doing. Doing a hard look at the portfolios, going to be
selling some stuff, if not Monday, maybe Tuesday, raise
up that cash and looking to put something into this managed
feature strategy to give us some extra protection moving forward. So

(13:24):
that is the game plan, right? We're not going to stand around and just get punched in
the face, okay? We are going to be proactive to
work our way through it. But I like the work that we've done to make sure
that we've got the diversity. We want lack of correlation to
the market. Remember I mentioned earlier, when the market really decides to slip
into a bear market, everything goes down. Even the last ones

(13:44):
to break, they break. Well, if we got something that's completely non-correlated,
then that can be a really good buffer for
us in the midst of something along those lines. I still think that maybe this isn't
it, that the market's going to hang in there, but I'm not going to insist
that my thinking is correct and that the market is wrong. Sometimes
these things become self-fulfilling prophecies, and we just want to be

(14:07):
on guard for that, okay? So I'm going to wrap up, but
between now and next we meet, if you're thinking about your future, long-term goals, all
the things you want to do with you and your money, maybe just retire a little early. You
can still do that. Hey, we're still doing just fine. You can still retire early. Maybe
just retire, period. And you can do that too. Maybe just travel
around the world on a big trip or pay for

(14:27):
college or that wedding. Hey, you know what your goals are. Don't just think about them.
Think big. Think B-I-G. And I
Thank you for listening to this week's edition of the Big Money Report with
your host, David Boothe, President and Financial Advisor at
BIG Investment Services. For more information on BIG and
how you can access their planning and investment management services, visit

(14:51):
them at abigplan.com. That's abigplan.com. Or
call them toll free at 866-946-PLAN. That's 866-946-7526. The
foregoing content reflects the opinions of David Boothe and Boothe Investment Group,
Inc., and is subject to change at any time without notice. There's no

(15:11):
guarantee that the statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will
prove to be correct. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only
and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding
the purchase or sale of any security. All investing involves risk, including the
potential for loss of principal. There is no guarantee that any investment plan or
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