Week Ending 05_30_2025 Stock Market Recap

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Episode Transcript

(00:35):
Hello and welcome to
this week's edition of the Big Money Report. I'm your
host, David Boothe, president and financial advisor at B-I-G Investment
Services. That's B-I-G, Boothe Investment Group.
We're a full-service financial advisory based at Updover, Delaware, serving
clients all across this great country. And

(00:57):
you can read all about us at abigplan.com. That's www.abigplan.com. I
put the show together once a week just to give you a recap of the week behind and
a peek at the week and weeks to come. Trying to
keep you up to speed with you and your money. And we're glad with us today.
It is Friday, May 30th, 2025, the

(01:18):
end of another month. We're almost halfway through the year. Can you
believe it? They say time flies when you're having fun, but
I guess it also flies when you are dealing with a chaotic stock market.
So speaking of the stock market, let's talk about the numbers. Dow Jones
this week up 1.6%, S&P 500 up 1.8%, Nasdaq
Composite up 2% and the Russell small cap up 1.3% on

(01:42):
the week. So all the major indices moving higher, rebounding a little bit from last week's
decline. As a matter of fact, everybody's still negative on the year,
the Dow Jones, the NASDAQ, and the small cap index,
but the S&P is positive finally, 0.5% on
the year. So showing a little bit of positive gain
there so far year to date. We'll see if the second half is better.

(02:04):
Looking at the volatility index, down a little bit this week, down 16%, coming
to 18.5. So a little under 20 there. Pretty
decent number for the volatility index. We'll see if that holds. And then look
at the long-term bonds as measured by the TLT. They had a good week also,
up 2% this week. So bond values go up, means
yields are coming down a little bit. So hopefully that continues. That's

(02:25):
a really big, big thing I'm watching, are long-term
yields. They've seemed to be a bit disconnected from Fed policy.
They seem to be doing their own thing. Jamie Dimon, the CEO of
JPMorgan Chase, was doing an interview just today talking about
the fact that the bond vigilantes, the big money, everyone
talks about the stock market, the big money, the big, big

(02:47):
money. is in the bond market. And if the big money wants
to make a statement or gets rattled and you see a
breakdown in the bond market, you will see hell break
loose. And Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan,
actually referenced that in an interview today. Not that it's pending or imminent or
around the corner, Just that, hey, it can happen and

(03:08):
it could shock the markets a bit when it does. So we'll be able to continue to
watch in these long-term rates very closely. And then we take a look at the
sectors. Everything was good. Everything was good except energy. Energy was
down half a percent this week. Everything else was up and up pretty substantially across
the board. No need to go through all the numbers because they're all about the same. And then
looking at the metals, gold down 1.9, silver down 1.5. So

(03:30):
again, market's doing a little better, gold down, market
does poorly like last week, gold up. So we're seeing a little bit of this inverse
correlation here between the stock market and gold. It
makes sense. So what is moving markets?
Well, A lot of headlines, really. Look, last
week, there is this thing that was floated by President Trump about 50% tariffs

(03:53):
on European imports. And then by the time the market opened
on Tuesday, which, remember, is a shortened week because of Memorial Day, when the
market opened on Tuesday, that story had reversed. Those
50% tariffs had been postponed until July, and the market responded
in kind. It was up pretty nicely. And then moving
forward from there, we had the Fed meeting minutes come out

(04:15):
and not a whole lot there to talk about. But then we had some
other headlines this week. We had a big headline regarding President
Trump and tariffs. It was a court ruling that said that these tariffs
are illegal, that President Trump is exceeding his
authority with these tariffs. And I have to say, this has been
bouncing around in my head since the whole start of this thing. It's

(04:36):
an awful lot of power. to be
carried by one lone individual. Look, it's known
that Congress controls the purse strings, as they say. Of
course, they say purse strings, like the purse has strings and
you pull them and the purse closes. Yeah, our purse
never closes. Congress doesn't control the purse strings. They

(04:57):
just control passing out the candy like it's a Christmas parade. But
anyway, I digress. Aside from that, we talk about
tariffs and all this power coming from one person. It's
a little bit concerning because, look, in essence, if President Trump can put
145 percent tariffs on one of our very largest trading partners,
China, And then he could go and put 200% tariffs on

(05:20):
every country in the world and just start a global depression. Now,
of course, that's not his objective, right? He's doing the tariffs because he's trying to negotiate
a more fair playing field, a more level playing field, because
things are definitely disjointed here when it comes to trade with
other countries. we are on the losing end of the stick and
being taken advantage of. All that said, it's still

(05:42):
an exercise of extreme power. And the court,
which is a mixed court, I should add, Republicans and Democrats both,
did say that they did not see where the extent of
his tariffs are legal. Now, a stay was put in place, so
it has been delayed, and the Supreme Court probably is going to be taking this
up. And we'll see how it plays out when all is said and done. I will say

(06:04):
this, we're at a point now in the midst of
negotiations where you don't want to see that undermined, right?
Progress is being made and you do want to see this ball get
across the finish line, right? Balls don't run races, David. We
want to see the ball get in the end zone or get in the basket or get
in the goal or see the car get across the finish line, however

(06:25):
you want to put it. We're in the midst of all of this. We want to see this wrap
up and wrap up to our benefit. So I do hope the court rulings
don't undermine the current process. At the same time, I do think there's something to
be said. about the legality of
this level of power that's being exercised right now, the tariff talks.
So that was a big headline. And, you know, I thought the market would

(06:46):
have really exploded to the upside, thinking, oh,
tariffs are illegal, they're going away, all this is being delayed. And,
you know, overnight after market trading, the market was
up quite a bit. But when it opened the next day, it just kind
of ended up being a big yawn. The market really didn't react a whole lot
to that. Maybe it was already looking ahead at the

(07:07):
fact that it was going to be appealed. But nonetheless, I
thought the reaction in the market was a bit subdued. And then moving forward
from there, we had some economic data and we had the PCE
number, personal consumer expenditures, that was in line, improving,
market liked to see that. We saw personal incomes rise. That was good.
We saw the GDP, which is still negative. It was revised

(07:28):
to a little bit better number. And then finally, the other big
headlines that hit this week were China trade talks. So
Scott Besant, Secretary Treasurer, came out on Thursday night, said
that looked like the talks had stalled, that President Trump and President Xi
needed to weigh in. And the weigh-in happened
on Friday morning or overnight Thursday with Trump tweeting

(07:50):
that China was reneging on their agreements and so on
and so forth. The mud started slinging and the things started going back
and forth. I thought the market would derail on that. And
yet it did not, kind of hung in there down 0.01% on
the day-to-day. So it really didn't move a whole lot even on that
story, which I thought was interesting. Again, the market doesn't want

(08:12):
to see the China-US trade talks deteriorate because that's our
most crucial trading partner. So very interesting action, headlines,
moving markets, sometimes more than I expected, sometimes less, but
here we are. just kind of going sideways. And listen, the
market has had a huge run, a massive rebound
off those April lows. When you have a rebound like

(08:34):
that, when the market gets overextended like it's been in
the last couple of three weeks here, you expect some
digestion. That digestion can come in the form of
the market pulling back and coming down to some extent, which it
did a little bit, not as much as I expected, but it did pull back some. Or
it can come by going sideways for an extended period

(08:57):
of time and just kind of churning day to day, moving
sideways and letting that big move digest that way. It can come
either way. I'm still not convinced we're not going to
see a bigger downward move in the market. I still think that some
technical indicators suggest that there's still more downside to be
had in this correction that may have started here a
week or so ago. But again, there's a lot of

(09:20):
stuff that suggests the market's not going to go very far If it goes down,
listen, the indicators, the technical indicators have
been amazing as far as what they've accomplished here
in the past six days, seven weeks. And we've referenced it
a few times here on the podcast. Actually very early on,
we saw some things that you very rarely see unless

(09:41):
you've seen the bottom of the market. That was in regards to
breadth thrust and other things that were going on within the market. And
now we're seeing sentiment indicators turn in
such a way that, again, when they've done this sort of
thing in the past, and again, there's no guarantee of the future, but when they've done this sort
of thing in the past, it has really meant very
good things for the market for the next six to 12 months or longer. So

(10:05):
we have to keep an open mind. to much
better than expected outcomes. The market and
all the geopolitical stuff, there's a lot going on. There's a lot to
be worried about, fearful about. And I can't
guarantee you what's going to happen 12 months from now. But what I can say is this. When
we have seen the technical indicator signals that we've seen over

(10:27):
the last eight weeks, let's say, good things happen. Good
things happen looking further out, six, 12 months or so. And
I think that's very much in the cards for this market. Now, that said, the
next two months could be a different story. The market could go a lot lower.
We'll see if that happens or not. Right now, it seems to be trying to hang on,
trying to go sideways. But, you know, we're always just a tweet away

(10:49):
from the market taking a big hit. So we'll see what happens. Either way,
I'm very comfortable. I love where we sit right now. We
are pretty much fully invested. We've got a small
position in cash. So if the market takes a hit or
if individual holdings that we have take a
hit, we can step in and accumulate some more shares.

(11:11):
But aside from that, look, we've got good positions in stock. bonds
and managed futures. So we've got great diversity across the board. I
love where we sit here today. Look, I told you a minute ago, all
of the indices are negative on the year, except the S&P, which is up half
a percent. All I'll say is this, when
you get your statement for the month of May, take

(11:34):
a look at your beginning of the year balance, take
a look at your end of May balance, and
I think you'll be very, very, very, very, very, very, very,
very happy. You can count the varies on that to get some sort of
indication of what I'm talking about. So, and again, I think that we're in
a great spot right now, up, down, or sideways. I

(11:54):
love where we sit. Market itself, I can't tell you
which way it's going to digest this big move. My thinking is still
it's going to take a step back, but I don't think it's going to be a huge step. Next
week on TAP, we've got more economic data. We've got
the job openings. We've got the May jobs number.
That's going to be a big one. We've got a few more earnings coming out.

(12:15):
Earnings season is winding down, so I don't expect earnings to move the markets
a whole lot now at this point in time. And it's probably
more headline driven. And I'm sure, I'm sure,
There will be plenty of headlines to move the market because
there are always plenty of headlines with a Trump administration. There
is no shortage of those. So look, I'm going to wrap up.

(12:37):
Between now and next few minutes, you're thinking about your future long-term goals, all the things
you want to do with you and your money. Retire a little early. Take
that big trip. Buy that second house. Buy that first house.
Hey, you know what your goals are. Don't just think about it. Think big. Think
Thank you for listening to this week's edition of the Big Money Report with

(12:58):
your host, David Boothe, President and Financial Advisor at
BIG Investment Services. For more information on BIG and
how you can access their planning and investment management services, visit
them at abigplan.com. That's abigplan.com. Or
call them toll free at 866-946-PLAN. That's 866-946-7526. The

(13:23):
foregoing content reflects the opinions of David Boothe and Boothe Investment Group,
Inc., and is subject to change at any time without notice. There's no guarantee
that the statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to
be correct. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and
should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the
purchase or sale of any security. All investing involves risk, including the
potential for loss of principal. There is no guarantee that any investment plan or