Week Ending 06_06_2025 Stock Market Recap

Two outlooks to focus on, the short term and the long term, neither of which look anything alike. How so? TUNE IN TO FIND OUT!

Episode Transcript

(00:34):
Hello and welcome to
this week's edition of the Big Money Report. I'm your
host, David Boothe, President and Chief Investment Officer at
BIG Investment Services. That's B-I-G, Boothe
Investment Group. We're full-service financial advisory based out
of Dover, Delaware, serving clients all across America. And

(00:57):
you can read all about us at abigplan.com. That's www.abigplan.com. I
put the show together once a week just to give you a recap of the week behind and
a peek at the week and weeks to come. Trying to keep you up
to speed with you and your money. And we're glad you're with us today. It is Friday,
June 6th, 2025. Ding, ding, ding, ding, ding,

(01:17):
ding, ding. In the corner to my left, weighing in
at the most powerful man in the world, President Donald
J. Trump. And in the corner to my right, weighing
in as the richest man on planet Earth, Mr.
Elon Musk. Let the fighting begin.
Wow, what a throwdown. The bromance came to an

(01:39):
end this week in flaming fashion. Maybe
we'll talk a bit more about that in a moment. Let's first, how about we talk about
the numbers. All the markets pressed higher this week. Dow Jones
up 1.1%, S&P 500 up 1.5%, Nasdaq
Composite up 2.1%, and the Russell Small Cap Index up 3.2%. We'll
round up just a tick there. 3.2% on the week. Great,

(02:02):
but things are looking stretched. And we'll talk more about that here
in just a couple of minutes. Volatility index dropped quite a bit, down 9.6%, coming
in at 16.7, looking a little complacent. Something to
keep your eyes on there. And long-term bonds, they just cannot
get traction, down another 1% on the TLT this week as
rates pushed a little bit higher. So again, continue to find some

(02:23):
traction there on long-term bonds. I think that's got a lot to do with
pending legislation, with the bill that's going through the sausage-making process right
now in the Senate. There's a lot of concerns over the debt
increases and things like that. That leads back to the
throwdown there between President Trump and Elon Musk as well. When
you take a look at the sectors this week, the growthier areas of

(02:44):
the market, really strong this week. Retail sales up 3.1 percent.
Semiconductors up 5.4 percent this
week. You had technology as a whole up 3.2, industries up 1.4. The
more defensive areas of the market, things like staples,
things that you need, not things that you want, down 1.3% this week.

(03:05):
Utilities down 0.9%. So some strength in
the growth of your areas and some weakness in the defensives. And
then speaking of defensive, gold only up half a percent this week. Silver
though, there's a lot of industrial uses for silver. Silver really picking it
up this week, up 8.9%, had a big move there. a little
bit of a catch-up trade happening with silver. So what

(03:26):
moved markets this week? Well, there's a lot, mainly
again, headline-driven, but let's just go ahead and break down some of
these things. First of all, the economic data has been sloppy. We
continue to get some economic data coming in, but it's been sloppy and
it's been pushing bonds around as well. We had a
weak ADP, private payrolls number. It

(03:47):
was not very good at all. It was the lowest since March of 2023. The May
ISM services number, that's a indication on
how strong the services section of the economy is, which happens to
be the largest portion of our economy. It fell into contraction territory.
That's not a good thing. Initial jobless claims,
they jumped back up highest level since October. That didn't look so good.

(04:08):
So all these things not looking great. We did have
one good piece of information for the economy this week, and
that was the May jobs number. That was pretty strong. I
say pretty strong, let me say this, stronger than expected, better
than expected, but there were some downward revisions for the last two
months, pretty significant downward revisions. So

(04:29):
these are all things that we're watching. The economy seems to be just kind
of like hanging in. Different parts of the economy are vacillating
between weakness and strength. And as a whole, it's just kind of
hanging in and hanging tough at the moment. Consumer continues to
spend. Some of the earnings reports and stuff we've been watching just
indicate that the consumer is hanging in there. And that, of course, is

(04:49):
major when it comes to the United States economy. So watching all that stuff pretty
close. But the real big movers this week, the things that really moved the markets, first
of all, was the China-US trade negotiations. There was an
announcement at the beginning of the week that there would be a phone call between
President Trump and President Xi of China. That did happen on Thursday.
They say there's an agreement. Well, at least President Trump said that

(05:10):
there was a trade deal, actually, is what he said. But there's
no details on that. I think there's more of maybe a framework for a
trade deal. And they're going to have more expanded talks
beginning this coming Monday in London. As
far as the teams, China and US, the negotiators will get together and
start hashing things out, but the market did respond positively

(05:31):
to the phone call, responded positively to the fact that they're going to be getting together
on Monday. And, you know, both presidents invited one another to each
other's countries and all that good stuff. So just a thawing, a
little bit of a thawing in the relationship is probably a good
thing overall, longer term. for really the
globe as a whole when it comes to economic activity. So that
was going on. And then, of course, I'm sure you've heard the story, as

(05:54):
I mentioned at the opening of the show, we had that big meltdown
between Elon Musk and President Trump. So
a couple of things about that. Look, I don't think the market really cares about the
bromance coming to an end and the mudslinging that took place there as
far as between Musk and Trump. But
what it does care about is this bill. And Elon is

(06:15):
drawing a lot of attention to this bill. And there's some
concerns here, right? There's a huge increase on the debt ceiling.
$5 trillion increase is built into this
bill. And look, we are already backs against the wall financially
here. Our debt service has doubled, more
than doubled, more than doubled in the past like three or four years,

(06:38):
just growing up exponentially. And
if we continue to add debt on top of that, it's just going to be a real challenge.
Now, there's a lot of things in this bill that need to stay, right? We need to make these
tax cuts permanent. We've seen revenues grow exponentially, exponentially
since the 2017 tax cuts. And by letting them expire, It
would equate to the largest tax increase in United States history. And

(07:00):
it's not just for the wealthy. I get so sick and tired of the
intellectually dishonest shaping of the narrative. By and large, the
number of people make $100,000 a year and less have been
huge benefactors of the 2017 tax cuts. So we
want to keep that in place, but there's a lot of garbage in
this bill. And Elon was pointing it out. He's pretty irritated.

(07:21):
He feels that we were moving down the path of fiscal responsibility
and that this bill doesn't measure up to that. But
then when things got really nasty and the personal installs started flying and
things like that, that was really interesting. Elon's on the spectrum, and
sometimes I scratch my head. It's like, dude, you're the CEO of
a really huge company, and you're gonna make everybody mad,

(07:42):
right? The left isn't gonna wanna buy from you anymore, and then the right's not gonna wanna
buy from you anymore. So you're gonna hurt yourself
there, buddy. You might wanna just chill out and maybe just not be so political,
but anyway. I digress. The bottom line is the market did move
on it. It's down quite a bit on Thursday when things were at
their most heated. Of course, Tesla drove that down quite a bit, down

(08:03):
14, 15% in a single day. But nonetheless, my concern
there is that the bill itself, I think, is going to be
a market mover here moving forward. There's a lot of
wood that needs to be chopped on this thing between now and they want to try
to get it passed by July 4th. Good luck with that, but
I do think whether they get it done by then or not is going to be talked about. There's

(08:23):
going to be parts of it going to be really out there in the face of the public and
the narrative, and that can move markets quite a bit because there's a
lot of concerns surrounding that. Corporate earning seasons winding
down. So we're not going to get a whole lot of market moving corporate
earnings in weeks to come. Next week's gonna be pretty light. I think you
got Smuckers and Oracle, Adobe. Aside from

(08:44):
that, we do have some big economic data next week. You got CPI, that's
the Consumer Price Index. You got May PPI, the Producer Price Index. So
two inflation numbers that the market's been watching. So that'll
come out. And then the big thing next week, I think the market's gonna be watching are
treasury auctions. So we're going to have about 78 billion
in three-year notes, 57 billion in 10-year notes, and 34 billion

(09:06):
on 30-year bonds on Thursday next week, the
30 years on Thursday. The other ones are on Tuesday and Wednesday. But
anyway, if those auctions don't go well, that could
spell trouble. If interest rates push higher, this market could
roll over. Let's talk about that. Let's talk about the market. A
couple of things I failed to tell you last week. That month

(09:27):
end indicator that I tracked so closely, remember I told you
it gave me the signal to raise cash at the end of March and
we did substantially raise a lot of cash at
the end of March. Of course, it didn't last long. We put a big chunk of
that right back to work two weeks later in the beginning of April when the
market was getting hammered. But we did get the signal to raise cash and
we did. Well, at the end of May, the levels

(09:50):
of the market did reclaim that key
level that I watched so closely. That's a very, very good
sign. Now, it did that back in 2015 and 16 and went right
back down again. We had an extended period of sideways chop
in the market lasting almost two years. I'm not sure if that's where we're at now.
We're watching that pretty closely. But the fact that it reclaimed it is a good sign.

(10:11):
It's another piece of that puzzle. that I keep saying you
have got to keep an open mind to better than expected outcomes for
this market. We have seen data, different sentiment indicators, breadth
indicators, all these different things that absolutely scream
that the market's probably gonna be doing pretty well over the next year or so.
So we gotta be mindful of that. And look, for folks on our clients

(10:33):
at BIG, for folks out there that panicked and sold and
took all your money out of the market, put it under a mattress, You just
got screwed badly. That's why you don't do that sort of thing. We
preach this very strongly on the podcast and to our clients. You
always maintain a balanced approach because if you bet the farm, you
can lose the farm or at least get hurt pretty badly. So, you know,

(10:54):
that's why you always lean in or out of your convictions, but you don't go all
in or all out. because that can really burn you badly. So
we've managed this beautifully. We're up very nicely year-to-date. Our large, moderate,
and aggressive risk models, they're up almost double digits here year-to-date. They're
doing quite well. So I'm very happy with how we've executed throughout
the year so far. But there's still a lot of year to go. And that brings me

(11:16):
to the next thing I want to talk about, and the short-term. Long-term,
year, year and a half, look, I think this market's going higher. Based off
all this stuff that we've seen, all these indicators, I mean, some of these
things will be the first time they've missed if the market's not up quite
a bit a year from now. That said, the next few
weeks to a couple of months, the market looks stretched.

(11:37):
We mentioned last week that maybe it could digest this big move by
going sideways, but Look, it still looks really expensive to
me. This week we got 13 sell indicators on
the DeMarc charts that I watch. And I know it sounds like Greek to
everybody. Tom DeMarc is a brilliant technician, absolutely
brilliant. He's got great products out there to track the market exhaustion

(11:57):
and trends and things like that. We hit a nine about a week or
so ago, and now we've got these 13 accounts that are
just indicating very, very strongly that this move in the
market that we've had since the lows of April is over its skis,
it's extended, and it's very likely, very highly likely that
we're going to see a bit of a pullback. Now, June is usually a pretty good
month. Seasonally speaking, July and August, not so

(12:21):
much. So will it be in the next few weeks or will
it be a little bit later? I don't know, but I do know that things look like
they're really stretched here and I actually would expect it to start rolling
over sooner. I think probably in the next week or two, we can start seeing
the market push lower. I like where we sit. We're in a great place.
I hope it does go down some. I'd like to do a little bit more buying. But right
now we're doing great, so I'm pleased with where we sit. For

(12:44):
those of you that aren't clients of BIG, for those of you that are out
of the market because you got too defensive and you pulled too much out,
I think you're buying opportunities probably going to be coming here in the next few weeks. So
if that happens, jump in. And if you're too afraid to do that, then give us
a call. We will do it for you because we are paid not
to let emotions get in the way of facts. That's

(13:04):
how we try to roll around here. So I'm expecting some weakness in this market probably
in the weeks to come. I think it could be a little bit of a buying opportunity to
some extent. And then I do think that things will press on higher
moving forward. Of course, things can get rocked. There's a lot going on
out there with the bill, with China, with Russia, Ukraine, et cetera.
But again, the markets also tend to become desensitized to

(13:25):
some of these things over time. It becomes desensitized to the war
with Russia and Ukraine, becomes desensitized to some of the trade talk. Then
you start seeing the reactions kind of get more minimal and minimal and minimal as
these headlines pop up. So things are stabilizing a little bit,
but we're going to be in a period where there's not going to be a lot to move it except the headlines
and they could easily push it down a bit. So we'll be watching, see

(13:47):
how that goes. That's pretty much what I've got for you this week. I think we're in pretty
good shape. But look, between now and next few minutes, you're thinking about your future, your long-term goals,
all the things you want to do with you and your money. Retire a little early. Take
that big trip. Buy that next car. Hey, you
And I will talk to you next week. Thank you for listening

(14:09):
to this week's edition of the Big Money Report with your host, David
Boothe, President and Financial Advisor at BIG Investment Services.
For more information on BIG and how you can access their
planning and investment management services, visit them at abigplan.com.
That's abigplan.com. Or call them
toll free at 866-946-PLAN. That's 866-946-7526. The

(14:36):
foregoing content reflects the opinions of David Boothe and Boothe Investment Group,
Inc., and is subject to change at any time without notice. There's no guarantee
that the statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to
be correct. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and
should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the
purchase or sale of any security. All investing involves risk, including the
potential for loss of principal. There is no guarantee that any investment plan or