Week Ending 06_20_2025 Stock Market Recap

Markets churned sideways waiting for things in the Middle East to unfold. TUNE IN FOR THE LATEST!

Episode Transcript

(00:34):
Hello and welcome
to this week's edition of the Big Money Report. I'm
your host, David Boothe, President and Financial Advisor at BIG
Investment Services. That's BIG, Boothe Investment
Group. We're a full-service financial advisory based out of Dover, Delaware, serving
clients all across America. And

(00:57):
you can read all about us at abigplan.com. That's www.abigplan.com. I
like to put the show together once a week just to give you a recap of the week behind and
a peek at the week and weeks to come, trying to keep you up
to speed with you and your money. And we're glad you're with us today. It
is Friday, June 20th, 2025, the first day of summer, the longest

(01:17):
day of the year. Some
shout outs to Tony, Sue, Karen, Chuck, and Brian. Hey, and a big,
a big B-I-G shout out to our very own Rachel there
at the office making some big career moves with B-I-G this week. So
congrats to her. Hey, let's go ahead and jump into the numbers, tell you what is
going on. Kind of a flat to mixed bag this

(01:39):
week. Marcus really not doing a whole heck of a lot. They moved quite
a bit during the week, but they really didn't finish up or down one
way or the other. Dow Jones flat on the week. S&P
500 down 0.15, the NASDAQ composite up
0.2, and the Russell small caps up 0.4. So a little movement there on the
Russell small cap index, which is lagging. It's down 5.5% on

(01:59):
the year, so it needs to move a little bit, doesn't it? Taking a look at the volatility index,
again, kind of flat on the week, down 0.9% on the volatility
index, coming in at 20.5%, let's say. So
we'll be watching that, see if that spikes up with all the things that are
going on in the world today. And then long-term bonds, they pushed
up a little bit this week, up 0.2%. And I will

(02:20):
say that there's a couple of fearful days in the market this week with
everything going on with Iran and Israel. And I was happy
to see bonds getting a little bit of love because my
last week we were talking about that. I've been kind of concerned about the lack
of interest in us treasuries with all that's going
on in the world right now. So a little bit better action this week that

(02:40):
made me feel comfortable. Taking a look at the indices, all
the different sectors within the market, again, kind of a mixed bag. Retail
sales are up a little bit, up 2.2. Semiconductors up 1.2. But
other things were down. Utilities were down 0.7. Discretionary down
half a percent. Healthcare was down two and a half. Materials down
one. Tech was up half a percent. So kind of a mixed thing. No

(03:03):
screaming messages coming from the market this week. Energy up 1%. So
not too much there on the energy. It was up a lot last week, not so much this week. And
gold down 1.9, again, a little surprising given all
that's happening in the world. Down 2% on gold this week, and then down
0.75% with silver. So what is moving
markets this week? Well, mainly the Iran and

(03:27):
Israel situation. That's really the main thing driving markets.
We did have some news this week, and I'll talk about it here in a minute. And look, we talked about this last
week. The market tends to have a knee-jerk reaction
to large geopolitical events, wars, things
like that, attacks, et cetera. And it tends to look past it
or through it pretty quickly. This is a pretty big deal, what's going

(03:48):
on over there. And it's gonna be interesting to see how things shake out. The market, I
think, has kind of responded to the fact
that we did not get involved yet. Right now, the latest
is that we are going to make a decision within the next two weeks European
officials and Iran are meeting in Switzerland, trying to
hash some things out. We'll see how it all goes. Look, I'm more libertarian-minded kind

(04:10):
of guy. I really don't think that any country has any business telling any other
country what they can and can't do when it comes to their own defense. You know,
the problem that you've got, though, is when you've got the leader of a nation, and
look, Iran's no small country. We're 300-some million people here.
There are 92 million there, 92 million people in Iran. We're not talking
about a tiny little speck of a nation here. It's a sizable country.

(04:31):
And when you have the leader of a large country saying they're going to wipe a
country off the map, going to eliminate it, erase it, that's
something to be taken seriously. And if I were their neighbor and
being threatened like that, I wouldn't want them to have the means to do what they say
they want to do. But it really is uncomfortable, right, getting involved
in the middle of that sort of thing. And I do think there's a window open here that will

(04:53):
probably not be open again because things have unfolded the
way that they have. And it looks like the United States is the only avenue
to try to take out this nuclear facility that's under the mountain, Fordham,
there in Iran. If doing so could cause some repercussions,
and we'll see how it shakes out. We're gonna see what comes together. Markets
will react to whatever that may be, right? If things settle down, and

(05:16):
come to a close, market will probably respond. And if things
escalate, the market will probably respond. But any sort of movement
there to the negative, I think will probably be short-lived and the market
will probably settle back down again. So we'll be
watching all of that. In other news this week, you
had Fed Chair Powell and company, they had their meeting, no

(05:36):
change, no interest rate cuts, no surprise here. We
talked about this since the beginning of the year, our 2025 outlook.
We said, hey, forget about any interest rate cuts until maybe
the end of the year. And that's if the employment picture really
starts to deteriorate. A lot of folks were kind of surprised by
that. They thought we would get some cuts. Earlier in the year, we just didn't think

(05:57):
that was the case. The economy is too strong. And J-PAL and
company are just too hawkish on inflation. And they still
are. They're still worried about the inflationary aspects of tariffs,
which, again, I think it's a one and done thing. I think it's yet to come. I
think we've been hit with it yet. I think it'll reflect maybe third or fourth quarter. but
it'll be a move and then it'll probably settle back down again. So we'll

(06:18):
be watching all of that closely. One of the things that concern me a little bit is the
Fed did talk about stagflation without
using the word, okay? Stagflation, that means no growth
with inflation. That's a bad place to be. We had it in the seventies. And
when you listen to the Fed speak this week, they lowered the growth projections
and they raised their inflation projections. That, ladies and gentlemen, is

(06:40):
the definition of stagflation. So that's not a pretty place to be
either, but I don't think the probabilities of that are very, very high
as far as a long protracted stint of stagflation. I
think the tariff impacts will come and go and we'll move on
from there. And actually, if we get anything, we're probably more likely to get a
recession, but not this year. You know, a couple of months ago when this tariff

(07:00):
stuff heated up, I pulled forward my concern and
probabilities for recession to 2025. And we've since back off
to where we were coming into this year, which is, hey, watch out for 2026. That's
kind of been our area of concern, 2026 or
so. Look, you're starting to see things in the numbers that
tend to start happening. well prior to recession coming

(07:23):
into play. And understand something, recessions do not announce themselves, right?
They don't come with fanfare and big pre-announcement where
everyone's expecting it. They usually sneak up on economy. That's
why when everyone's worried about a recession and everyone's talking about it,
I tend to not be as concerned. And I tend to
get more concerned when no one's talking about it, when nobody's expecting

(07:44):
it, because that's usually how these things happen. And with all of
that said, One of the things that we're really focused on right now at
BIG is our portfolio allocation. So
look, I think the easy money from that 2022 bear market,
when we had that inflation scare, the easy money from the lows in
2022 till today has been made. And moving forward from here, recession risk

(08:06):
is going to loom in front of us. day in and day out, month in and month
out, quarter in and quarter out until we actually get one. It may not be 26, it
could be 27 or 28 or 2030. I don't know when, no one
does. But the recession risk will loom in front of us until it
comes and it will come. So what we wanna do right now is
be really, really disciplined with our diversification. And

(08:28):
that's what we're doing, right? We spread out internationally at the beginning of
the year. We've got extra money in Europe, some money in Southeast Asia. We've
got some money in India. We also have good positions in bonds and
we've added some commodity exposure with managed futures. So
we are really positioned for if the economy were
to slip into recession or sneak up on us, the market were to go

(08:49):
haywire. We are really well positioned to weather that and handle that.
I don't think it's happening now, not in 25. I think things look too
constructive for the market moving forward. The economy is hanging in there. Although
there are some weaknesses, right? Retail sales were terrible this week. Housing
starts, terrible. There's some big off numbers there. Manufacturing
numbers haven't looked good. The weakness jobless claims continue to

(09:11):
elevate and push higher. That's something that we watch very closely. So
I do think that there's certainly a growth slowdown
and it could lead to a recession down the road. I don't think it happens this year. I
think it's more likely in 2026 or so.
And we just want to go ahead and maintain a really disciplined approach moving
forward. Speaking of that, moving money around, you know, I came across

(09:33):
two different competitors this week by happenstance, two completely
different competitors that were really dismissing. managing
the money, all focused on the planning, the planning, the planning, and
completely dismissing the benefits of
having the money being managed the way we do here at
PIG. And I kind of thought that was interesting. I mean, first of

(09:56):
all, Look, if you're a client of ours, you know how we operate.
We're all about the planning. I mean, planning is first and foremost. Our website is
abigplan.com. That's what we do, estate
planning and financial planning, retirement planning, college planning. We are focused
on the plan because that's the most important thing. The investments
are the vehicle that gets you there. But here's the problem that I

(10:18):
have with this hands-off approach that seems to be coming so prominent right
now in our industry. I've been to too many bad bear markets. You
know, these youngins haven't been through this stuff. I mean, 2000 to 2003, S&P was down over 40%. 08, 09, down
over 60%. We had the COVID crash, top to bottom, down 35%. The 2022 inflation scare, that was ugly. And

(10:40):
look, at the end of the day, yeah, if you suck your money index funds and
rode that out, you would probably be all right. But the problem is this,
most folks can't stand the pain when things are at their
worst. And that's where we come into play, right? Part
of the reason why we do what we do is to
help keep you in the game when things turn ugly.

(11:01):
Because the worst thing, the very worst thing that investors can
do is is to pull out at the bottom, to let
fear take hold and win over. And that's why we really try
to help minimize the downside, try to take advantage when
there's opportunities to make more money on the upside. And that's why we
do things the way that we do them. And I think it sets us apart because most

(11:21):
of the folks aren't doing that. Anyway, not to go off into a tangent
about it, but you know, we don't talk about the planning here because this is not what this
is about. You talk about the planning when you're in for your reviews. This
is to tell you what's going on with your money. So you know what we're doing between your reviews to
help get you to the end game, to the end goal, which is
what it's all about. So with that said, I'm
gonna go ahead and wrap up. But between now and next few minutes, you're thinking about your future, your

(11:44):
long-term goals, all the things you want to do with you and
your money. Maybe it is structure your estate plan
like we did this past week for a client that wants to leave
a sizable amount of money to their grandchildren and not have anything
impact or affect that. So we took care of that this week. Maybe it is buy
that second house, retire a little early, take that big trip. Hey, you know what your goals are.

(12:05):
Don't just think about them. Think big. Think B-I-G. and
Thank you for listening to this week's edition of the Big Money Report with
your host, David Boothe, President and Financial Advisor at
BIG Investment Services. For more information on BIG and
how you can access their planning and investment management services, visit

(12:26):
them at abigplan.com. That's abigplan.com. Or
call them toll free at 866-946-PLAN. That's 866-946-7526. The
foregoing content reflects the opinions of David Boothe and Boothe Investment Group,
Inc., and is subject to change at any time without notice. There's no

(12:47):
guarantee that the statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will
prove to be correct. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only
and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding
the purchase or sale of any security. All investing involves risk, including the
potential for loss of principal. There is no guarantee that any investment plan or