Week Ending 06_27_2025 Stock Market Recap

WOW! Markets made a huge move in spite of the U.S. engaging in the conflict between Israel and Iran. Why and what may lie ahead? TUNE IN FOR THE LATEST!

Episode Transcript

(00:34):
Hello and welcome
to this week's edition of the Big Money Report. I'm your
host, David Boothe, President and Financial Advisor at BIG Investment
Services. That's B-I-G, Boothe Investment Group.
We're a full-service financial advisory based out of Dover, Delaware, serving
clients all across America. And

(00:57):
you can read all about us at abigplan.com. That's www.abigplan.com. I
like to put the show together once a week just to give you a recap of the week
behind and a peek at the week and weeks to come. Trying
to keep you up to speed with you and your money. And we're glad
you're with us today. It is Friday, June 27th, 2025. Some

(01:17):
shout outs to all the Eds. Ed, Eddie,
and Ed. Saw them all this week. How about Mike, Kathy, Chip,
so many others too. Look, I can't list everybody, but when folks come to the office quoting
the podcast, I gotta really try to give them a shout out if I can.
So look, let's go ahead and jump into it. Let me start by saying this, happy
new year. That's right, happy new year. Yeah,

(01:39):
what do I mean by that? Yes, I know it's June. Yes, I know it's June 27th.
What do I mean by happy new year? Okay, we are officially entering.
the period of time in the year where the market is going to
start just kind of discounting 2025. And so we really
start to look at 2026, right? So much for 2025. The
market wants to know what 2026 is going to do. And you're going to start seeing the

(02:00):
market really start to focus on next year and the
potential earnings on the S&P 500 and react accordingly. So
I think the market's starting to do that at this point in time. But as far as
the here and now is concerned, look, it's confusing week, right? I know a
lot of folks We're like worried about this week. I
got some folks reaching out to me last weekend. Oh my goodness, what's going to happen? I

(02:21):
said, look, a couple of things. I said, if Iran, I think it hinges on Iran,
if Iran has the willingness and the capability to
respond in a real way, it could get ugly. I
said, but if they don't. It will not take this market
long to view a denuclearized Iran
as a long term net positive. We talk about not taking long.

(02:44):
It took up till Monday. I mean, the market opened up Monday morning,
never looked back, was solid all week long. It
was a little touch and go there for a moment. There was a ceasefire was
announced and some things were launched. I mean, I couldn't
believe it. The ceasefire was announced and Israel suddenly just unleashed every
piece of ammunition that they ever owned. I was watching Houston and I

(03:06):
was like, why in the world? Is the sky lit up that much? That
looks like the worst night I've seen so far. Anyway, things got a little touchy there
Monday night into Tuesday morning. And if any of you are watching the news, I
was watching CNBC Live when President Trump made
his comments. And let's just say they were very colorful, very
strong comments about these two countries not knowing what

(03:26):
they're doing. And then shortly thereafter, Israel turned the planes back around
and things have been calm since. All said and done, the market's looking forward.
You saw energy prices pull back. You saw the market strengthen. Things
calm down. There's some talk that maybe some negotiations with
Iran moving forward, et cetera, et cetera. So all good stuff there.
And the markets responded in kind. So look, the Dow Jones was up 3.8% this

(03:49):
week. The S&P up 3.4. The NASDAQ up 4.2. The
Russell small cap's up 2.9. Big, big moves across
all major indices this week. And then the volatility next, as you might
expect, down big time, down almost 21% this week,
down to 16, really low level there. Could go a little bit lower though.
It broke through a key level of support, which would indicate that

(04:11):
volatility could stay low for a while, could even drift a bit lower. Long-term
bonds even getting in on the love this week, they were up 1%. So a little bit
of a positive action there. And then we look at all of the different sectors.
The bottom line is areas that were geared for growth were up a lot.
Semiconductors up 6.9% for the week. Discretionary
up 3.7. Financials up 3.1. Industrials up

(04:33):
3.1. Tech up 4.2. Other things like the defensive areas
of the market, things like consumer staples down half a percent. Utilities
only up half a percent, so not as much action there
on the defensives. And energy was the big laggard this week, down 4%, mainly
because oil dropped off so much, right? Things settled down quickly in
the Middle East, so did oil and energy stocks. They

(04:55):
pulled back a bit this week. How about gold and silver? Gold down 2.8, silver
down 0.3. We've talked a bit about
this. I've mentioned that if the market is shown some
love, it's probably going to hurt gold. And we're seeing that
this week. So gold down a bit. I still think gold looks constructive.
I think federal banks around the world are stocking supplies

(05:17):
of gold. And I think he can push higher. So that's what the
indices, that's what the markets were doing this week. There's a couple other things going on. Your Fed
chair, pal, he spoke, he testified to Congress this week, made
no indication whatsoever that he has any, any inclination
of lowering interest rates anytime soon. And again, he's taking a
lot of heat for that. I think that he's focusing a little too

(05:37):
much on tariff inflation. I mean, look, inflation numbers
have been coming down significantly. I will say that the PCE number,
that's the one that the Fed pays the most attention to. It is
still relatively sticky. Okay. The numbers came out this week. They're still a little on
the sticky side, but overall inflation has come down quite
a bit. And I think the tariff inflation is going to be a one and done. Tariffs

(05:58):
are going to hit. They're going to make their impact and that's going
to be it. It's going to be one and done. We'll probably won't see that impact until
the third quarter. So I'm not even sure you're going to hear a whole heck of a
lot about it in this next quarter's earnings announcements, which we
start here in a few weeks. But I do think by the following quarter,
you'll start to hear a little bit more about it and you might hear it in the projections this

(06:19):
coming earnings season as well. Speaking of earnings, FedEx reported. We
don't have it in our models, but I watch it. Didn't really care a whole lot for the report. Stock's
looking pretty attractive. If I had more cash, I'd buy it. So that's another
issue. David, what are we doing? Well, I tell you what, we've been fully invested really
since May 15th. We raised up a ton, a ton
of cash on March 31st. And

(06:40):
within two weeks, we put a big chunk of it right back to work again. The market got clobbered
after tariff announcements. And that April 7th, 8th,
and 9th, we bought a lot of stock. And then we just kind
of were waiting for the market to rally and then retest the
low. Cause that's normally how it goes. I've talked to most clients we've
been meeting with about that, waiting for that retest. And by

(07:01):
the middle of May, it just looked to me like the market didn't want to do it. It
just didn't look like it was going to go down and retest those levels.
Things just got too constructive too quickly. The market accomplished too
many things that indicated that the worst was behind us. And therefore we
went ahead and loaded up and just kind of got fully invested on
that day, added some more stock and some other investments and just kind

(07:22):
of dwindled the cash down. We got a little bit more cash to work with. I mean, maybe
2%. So if something pops up here during earning season, we get an opportunity to do some
buying. I'll try to put that 2% to work. But if I want to buy
something right now, I've got to sell something to do it because we've been kind of fully
engaged here, taking advantage of this move. Now, for new clients or
folks that have added new money, I've been working your money in over the last couple

(07:44):
of weeks. So two weeks ago, I did a lot of buying. Last week, I did a lot of
buying. This week, I did a little bit of buying, not too much, just
wherever there was opportunities that things took a hit. You know, Shopify, for example,
was down a couple of days ago. We picked some of that up. Ken Ross Gold,
the gold mining company that we've got in the portfolio that's been on
fire for quite some time now. It was down quite

(08:05):
a bit today, still up 60% on the year, but it's down quite a bit today.
So I'll put some money in there for you. And we'll be waiting for
opportunities to rise. As certain stocks stumble, or if we get bad
days in the market, we'll get your cash worked in there and get you fully invested
as well. And look, for those of you that aren't clients, that are home gamers, if
you're not in the market, you know, if you missed out, if you pulled all your money out

(08:25):
out of fear that the world was falling apart and didn't get it
put back in again, you missed it. However, if you
get any sort of pullbacks, you take advantage of them. You know, I thought there
was going to be a bigger pullback. Okay. We talked about this on the podcast. I
really thought you're going to get your opportunity here over the last couple
of weeks. All the technical indicators that I follow indicated

(08:46):
the market was overextended, that it was definitely
poised for a drop after this big move since April.
And we were ready, looking forward for that to happen. Just
didn't come together. You know, I mentioned a few weeks ago, look, this thing
can digest one or two ways, either by going sideways for a long period
of time or by having a significant pullback. We got a little bit

(09:06):
of both. It's really gone sideways for a few weeks now,
and we've had a couple of pullbacks along the way as the
Israel-Iran thing hit the news and stuff like that, but nothing
all that significant. So that's where we are at the moment. So
we're in great shape. We're up significant double digits on the year. Actually,
my attention is going to be turning now, moving towards the end of the year for

(09:28):
the large account models. I'll be looking to trim stuff. I mean, we're up so big
on a lot of these things. I'll be looking to do some trimming. You know, we've had
some stuff that we've added to, new things that we bought, and
especially things that we've added to. We've added to AMD. just
a few weeks ago at 96 bucks a share, you know, now it's up to
$143, you know, it's up 39% this quarter, uh,

(09:49):
29% month to date, you know, this thing's moving and that's not the only stock. We've got a lot
of stocks that are moving like that, uh, big time. And
I will be looking for opportunities really to maybe trim back
on some of that stuff as we move in towards the end of the year, because. And
I've been saying this to clients, actually one client bring up to me today, and I hope I didn't misstate
myself last week. I was talking about recession last week. Let

(10:11):
me make this really clear. I am not anticipating a recession anytime
soon at this point in time. But let me say this, recession is
going to remain a risk that's going to stay in
front of us nonstop until we get one. The
easy money has been made since the lows of 2022. And now
recession risk is going to remain in front of us until it actually happens

(10:34):
and recessions do not. warn you, they do not pre-announce
their arrival, they sneak up on you. So from here
forward, we are going to be very strict and disciplined at
maintaining our diversification. We weren't that diversified
coming out of 2022 because we bought a bunch of stocks. We
loaded up on stocks in June and October of that year

(10:55):
when the markets were getting clobbered. And we've been very, very
U.S. stock heavy until this year. And we've really backed away from
U.S. stocks. We've spread money out overseas and added money to other areas. And we're going
to maintain that discipline moving forward because I don't
know when a recession is going to happen. And I see some cracks here and there that
are really early preliminary types of cracks you see in some of the economic

(11:15):
data. It still could be years away. It
could be years away, which means that the market just goes screaming higher. We
might make a little bit less, but I'd rather make a little less and be prepared
for the unexpected than to be swinging for
the fences and get stung. And that's where we sit at the moment. Look,
the S&P is up 4.9% and all of our moderate risk

(11:36):
and our aggressive risk models, our large models, they're all up
double digits. So I'm not sweating any of that. I think we're in great shape
and we've handled all this quite well. Very happy with where we sit right now.
I think moving into this next quarter, you'll start to hear some more talk about tariffs
that could shake things up a bit. But I'll say this, this next quarter has
got a tailwind. There's something that's going to help support stocks

(11:57):
on these next quarter's announcements, and that is the weaker dollar. Look,
the S&P 500 derives about 41% of the revenues
from overseas, 41% of revenue from overseas.
And I think that is going to be a bit of a tailwind to
help prop up earnings in this next quarter. And I also think that
the market is starting to see things come together. Look,

(12:19):
when Donald Trump was elected, the market got excited about
certain possibilities. All of those things got very murky very quickly,
and that water's now starting to clear, and the market's starting to have better vision about
what lies ahead. There's still some big ones in front of us. The bill, it's
gotta get passed. There's some hard no's right now on the bill. There's
a lot of sausage yet to be made there. And listen, if that does not

(12:40):
get passed, it's a 68% Tax hike,
it's the largest tax hike in United States history. And let me also go
a step further to say, just take the politics and forget about
the politics and set it aside. As I get so sick
and tired of the politics and just look at the numbers from
the IRS, the overwhelming, the

(13:01):
overwhelming majority of the benefit from those 2017 tax
cuts, went to households making $100,000 a
year or less. It is not an opinion, it is a fact. So
if you think that's tax cuts for the rich, okay, then maybe you've
got something to argue about there. But if you're in that category, making under
$100,000 a year, then I don't think you want to see those tax cuts go away.

(13:23):
That said, there's a whole bunch of other stuff thrown in there, a lot of other garbage, et cetera. They
got to work their way through it. And the market get knocked around by that, all right? They
could get knocked around depending on those headlines moving forward. Tariffs are
also something that's not resolved yet. The market just
today here on Friday got hit in the back of the head for a moment because
President Trump came out and said that all tariff negotiations with

(13:45):
Canada are off immediately because Canada put
on a tech tax and they're upset about it. And they
said all negotiations are suspended and Canada received a
letter in seven days telling them what their new tariff is going to be. In
addition to that, and the pressure that he had today, he also talked about
the fact there's no way that we can negotiate all the

(14:05):
deals that we would have to negotiate by this deadline that
we put in July. And he said, these countries are going
to get letters. Right. And he said, oh, we're working with India, Europe, China,
everyone else is going to get a letter and they'll be told what the new tariff is going to be. That
is a big unknown that can certainly knock markets around a little bit. So again,
going back to what I said earlier, if the opportunity arises, markets pull

(14:27):
back. We want to kind of jump on it. We're already on it. We're already
in it. If there's anything that really sticks out at us, we'll try to take advantage, but
I don't think we're going to get really big, big opportunities from here to buy. I think the market's
looking pretty resilient at the moment. Might get a step back here or there, but
I don't think it'll be major. You might be lucky to get two or 3% drawdown. So
that's pretty much what I've got for you this week. Next week's gonna be

(14:47):
a short week. It's July 4th, towards the end of the week there. So I'll
be doing the podcast early on Thursday. Other than that, I
think things are looking pretty constructive. The market's still expensive, folks. There's no doubt
about that. But earnings are key. The market's gonna
start looking to 2026. If the market believes that
things are coming together in such a way where earnings can accelerate, tariffs

(15:08):
are done, the bill is done, et cetera, et cetera, then
we could start to see the market respond to the potential for
some earnings growth. And we can see this thing push higher, even though today
I would still consider it to be rather expensive. So
look, I'm gonna go ahead and wrap up, but between now and next week meet,
as you're thinking about your future, your long-term goals, all the

(15:28):
things you want to do with you and your money, maybe it's take
the entire extended family to an all expenses, pay vacation
to Disney. Maybe it's buy that second house,
pay for that college education. You know what your goals are. Don't
just think about them. Think big, think BIG. And

(15:50):
Thank you for listening to this week's edition of the Big Money Report with
your host, David Boothe, President and Financial Advisor at
BIG Investment Services. For more information on BIG and
how you can access their planning and investment management services, visit
them at abigplan.com. That's abigplan.com. Or
call them toll free at 866-946-PLAN. That's 866-946-7526. The

(16:18):
foregoing content reflects the opinions of David Boothe and Boothe Investment Group,
Inc., and is subject to change at any time without notice. There's no guarantee
that the statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to
be correct. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and
should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the
purchase or sale of any security. All investing involves risk, including the
potential for loss of principal. There is no guarantee that any investment plan or