Week Ending 07_03_2025 Stock Market Recap

Markets moved higher once again this week and are QUICKLY looking stretched once again. How so? TUNE IN TO FIND OUT!

Episode Transcript

David Boothe (00:00):
Hello and welcome, to this week's edition of the Big

(00:02):
Money Report. I'm your host, David
Boothe, President and Chief Investment officer at Big
Investment Services. That's Big
Boothe Investment Group. We're a full service financial
advisory based out of Dover, Delaware, serving
clients all across this great nation.
And you can read all about us at abigplan.com that's
www.abig plan.com.

(00:25):
i'd like to put the show once a week just to give you a recap of the
week behind and a peek at the week and weeks to come.
Trying to keep you up to speed with you and your money.
And we're glad you're with us today. It is Thursday,
July 3, 2025.
Shortened week for the markets this week as we
celebrate Independence Day. So hope you all have

(00:45):
a wonderful, safe and enjoyable fourth of July
weekend. Gotta give a big mega super shout
out to Tom. Tom, thank you for stepping in and helping
out one of our folks here at BIG this past week. You are the
man. We really appreciate you, bud.
Hey, let's jump into the numbers, tell you what's going on out there. This
market is getting a little silly, pushing quite a bit higher
yet again this week. Just a lot of movement

(01:08):
very, very quickly. So Dow Jones up 2.3% this
week. S&P 500 up 1.7.
The Nasdaq composite up 1.6. And the
Russell Small Cap Index really making a big move up
3.5% on the week. So a big move higher.
There's taking a look at the volatility index,
interestingly enough, you think it would be down with this
big move up in the market. It was actually up just under half a percent this

(01:30):
week. And ah, look, there was a, one day earlier in the week where the
market was up quite a bit and so was the volatility index
up along with it. That's something that catches my
attention. A lot of folks in our industry, believe it or
not, they don't watch the markets. They like,
see what it did at the End of the day. But I think it's important to kind of watch the
nuances day to day, week to week. Cause you see things

(01:51):
that catch your attention. And when the volatility index is up
with the market, that is something that
M is something to be watchful for. Same thing like
when the market is down big and the volatility index is actually
down as well. When they move together
sometimes it's indicating that it could be a change of
direction coming. And we'll talk more about that in a
moment. Looking at long term bonds as measured by

(02:14):
the tlt, a basket of long term
US Treasuries down half a percent this week.
So not a lot of movement there. And when we take a look at all the
sectors, everything did quite well. I mean everything was really up between 1
and say 4% on the week. Everything up
solidly, really. The only things that didn't move a whole lot were
utilities only up 0.6%.

(02:34):
And communication services, that includes your phone
companies, but also includes some web companies as well, up
0.3. But everything else was up and up big.
And then gold and silver again, another
departure from recent norms. Gold
was up 1.9, silver up 2.7. And
look, in the last couple of weeks when we've seen the market down,

(02:54):
gold was up and we've seen the market up, gold was down. Well
this week they're walking hand in hand again. Just
something to be mindful of as far as we're watching this market and
trying to discern what might come next.
So what was moving markets this week? Well, a lot of
headlines, lots of headlines all over the place.
A couple of things this week that really moved the markets. You had

(03:14):
a trade announcement. They struck a trade deal with
Vietnam. Instead of it being 40% tariff
like it was announced back in April, it's going to be
20%. So the market responded kindly
to that. We had some economic data that was mixed.
I'll tell you. Construction spending is really tanking, folks. The
housing market is really taking it on the chin right
now. And construction spending was down big. Other parts

(03:37):
of the economic data were just kind of mixed. A little
sloppy there. We did have a private
jobs number. The ADP number was a big miss. It was
a poor number that came out. And then
today we had the monthly
US jobs number and it was much stronger than expected.
But interestingly enough, the private sector in that number looks

(03:58):
kind of on the weak side. So some things just to be watching
for, unemployment rates kind of hanging in where they should be.
And then of course, the other big piece of news this
week has been the big quote, unquote,
beautiful bill. It's a big bill for sure.
I don't know how beautiful it is, but it's definitely
a big bill. I'm more uncomfortable with that, honestly, because

(04:18):
we aren't in the best financial situation when it comes
to the United States of America. So let, me give you a couple of the highlights, though.
There are some things that should be beneficial to folks.
So the standard deduction went up a little bit for married couples
filing generally up from 30,000 to 31 5. Not a big move
there. But there was a bonus deduction for
older adults for folks age 65 and

(04:38):
older between $7,600 and $8,000.
And I was kind of glad to see that because they were
talking about removing taxes on Social
Security. And you know what? I am a huge fan of that.
You bust your butt, you pay all this tax into the federal
government, and then you start collecting on this thing.
And if you make a little too much money, they tax the crap out of
that, too. It kind of gets old, paying taxes on your

(05:01):
taxed money over and over and over again.
So nice to see in that deduction that helps. The reason why they
couldn't do the actual removal of taxes on
Social Security is there's some special rules,
the Byrd rule actually in Congress that
doesn't allow you to monkey around with Social Security and reconciliation
bills. So they had to pull that out. But they added, ah, this other

(05:21):
additional deduction to kind of help with that. So maybe
that helps some folks.
Then the next one. This is disgusting to me. I can't. This is something
that I absolutely detest. and look for all our
clients in New York and Jersey and
California. I apologize to have to say this, but
the SALT tax deduction is
disgusting to me. Right. These folks are living in really

(05:42):
high property tax areas, and
they get these big federal tax
deductions because of the amount that they're paying
in their local real estate taxes. I think
it's very unfair for states like
Mississippi or Alabama and
Arkansas to be subsidizing the high property

(06:02):
taxes in New York and New Jersey. Anyway, that went from
$10,000 limit, which they had brought down
a few years ago, up to $40,000,
$40,000 deduction on this
state and local tax deduction. I think that's just disgusting.
Child tax credit, went up a couple hundred bucks, not a whole lot
there. The estate tax, that's important for us at Big.
We do a lot of estate Planning with clients that went from

(06:24):
13.9 million up to 15 million per person. So
that was a help. No tax on tips. Up to 25 grand. It
looks like overtime pay up to 12,5. Look,
we've got clients that work overtime
at 12,5. That's kind of funny because, a lot of these
folks working overtime make a lot more than that per year with those
overtime hours. Auto loan interest. This is interesting.

(06:45):
Buy a car in 2025, you get to deduct up to
$10,000 of annual interest from your
taxes. So that was interesting. That runs through
2028. This is another one that I've got a
problem with, the Trump accounts. So
let me tell you what this is. For every new baby that's
born, they get 1,000 bucks that is going to go into an
account for their benefit. Thousand dollars of

(07:08):
taxpayer money that's going to go into every child's account
that's born. It's going to be called a Trump account. Now, look,
I got to tell you, I know who's behind this bill, and they're
Wall street guys. We're talking billions of
dollars a year. Billions of dollars
per year now going into these accounts.
Billions. I mean, it adds up the number of children that are

(07:28):
born annually in America. You got to times that by
$1,000. It's a big number. Of course,
it gives Trump a legacy because his name's going to be attached to it. They'll be called Trump
accounts forever. So he'll be happy about that.
And then, charitable deductions for people that don't itemize, this is
kind of nice. So let's say you don't itemize. You do the
easy 1040. You can still deduct between

(07:48):
one and two grand for charitable contributions. So that's pretty cool.
Kind of helps the, 501C3s out there.
So that was the bill. And of course, there's some back and forth and
some nitpicking and things on different issues. To me, I
think the bill is bloated. I think it's full of tons of
spending. I don't think it's fiscally responsible,
really, in any way, shape or form, which is no
different from any bill that's been passed in the last 20

(08:11):
or 30 years, in my opinion. Now, on the bright
side of things, we're locking down the tax cuts from
2017. There's some things in this bill that should help
spur economic growth. And look, there's two ways to dig out of
a hole, folks, right? You can cut your way out of a,
debt problem, or you can grow your way out, or a combination of
both, I can't really say. We're doing a whole heck of a lot of cutting with

(08:31):
this bill, but hopefully it will spur some economic
growth and that will make a difference and kind of help us
get back on a little bit more, more solid footing moving forward. We'll just have
to see how things shake out with all of that.
So it's a short week, not a whole lot to talk about. I
will say this, though. This market, I
know it's been moving quick. I feel like I'm, Every other week I'm saying

(08:51):
something different about it. This market's extended, people.
It is extended once again in a pretty significant
way. The S and P oscillator scored over an
8 today. Anytime it gets over
5, you watch out. In addition to
that, some of the technical indicators, ones that I track very,
very closely, they're only a day or two away from

(09:11):
triggering sell signals. Just stating the market
again is getting very frothy. It's moved a lot,
moved very quickly. And look, let me tell you what's coming up next
week, all right? The tariffs, right? July
9, the tariff deadline. And we already know
that a lot of countries, deals aren't being worked out right now.
There's some talk that things are coming together with Europe, but maybe

(09:31):
not so much with Japan. And we got this whole thing with Vietnam,
some China, things are worked out. Some of the bigger ones are kind of
ironed out. But there's a lot of countries you do business with,
they're not ironed out yet. Oh, by the way, I told you last
week that things got thrown into a tizzy because of this
tech tax from Canada.
And Trump said negotiations are off with Canada.
They turn 180 on that by Monday.

(09:54):
That was no longer an issue. But my point is this.
July 9th is coming next week, and
that could be something that could stir this market up a little bit
and give it a moment to take a step back, which I think would be
healthy. It's just been up and up and up and up, and I think we could
get a little bit of a step back here in the next week or two, depending.
We'll see how things go. We did get a confirmed breakout this week. That's

(10:15):
the good news. The good news is that
the worst of this is absolutely over, in my
opinion. I really do believe that I said it last week. But we
got confirmation this week with the market action that
we've broken out to new highs. We're back up in that,
reestablished uptrend for the market. So that should
continue. But it doesn't mean you won't get a pause or a step

(10:35):
back along the way. And things are
very quickly right back to
that level where you would be expecting this market to take
a step backwards. So we'll see what happens in
coming weeks. Earnings are gonna kick off in earnest July 15
with bank earnings, although we'll be getting some stragglers coming in. I say
stragglers. Some early reporters coming in over this next week.

(10:55):
We'll be watching that pretty closely. A, lot of wood to chop still,
but I think everything is situated for this market to push higher over
the long run. I just do think that we could get a little bit of
a pause here in this positive action. And if we
do get that, we'll take some opportunities to do a bit
of buying for some folks. But right now we're sitting in a really
great spot and we're just going to continue doing what we're doing.

(11:16):
So I'm going to wrap up.
but between now next few minutes, you're thinking about your future, your long term goals, all
the things you want to do with you and your money. Maybe just buy
that grand piano and put it in that
one room in your house that's just sitting there waiting for it.
Debbie, it's just sitting there and waiting for it.
Maybe it's retire a little early, take that big trip. Hey,
you know what your goals are? Don't just think about it. Think big. Think big

(11:38):
and I will talk to you next week.

Disclaimer (11:40):
Thank you for listening to this week's edition of the Big Money
Report with your host, David Boothe, President and
Financial Advisor at BIG Investment Services.
For more information on BIG and how you can access
their planning and investment management services, Visit
them at abigplan.com that's
abigplan.com or call them
toll free at

(12:01):
866-946-Plan.
That's
866-946-7526.
The foregoing content reflects the opinions of David Boothe and
Boothe Investment Group, Inc. And is subject to change at any time without
notice. There's no guarantee that the statements, opinions or
forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Content
provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or

(12:23):
construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase
or sale of any security. All investing involves risk, including
the potential for loss of principal. There is no guarantee that any
investment plan or strategy will be successful. Please consult a
professional before investing.