July 7, 2025 • 23 mins
- Curt Kimmel, AgMarket.net
- Ed Usset, University of Minnesota
- Mark Russo, EverStream.ai
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Todd Gleason (00:00):
From the Land Grant University in Urbana
Champaign, Illinois. This is theclosing market report. It is the
July 2025. I'm extension's ToddGleason. Coming up, we'll talk
about the commodity markets withKurt Kimmel.
He's at agmarket.net. We'll hearfrom agricultural economist at
the University of Minnesota, EdAssad, and we'll discuss the
(00:21):
weather forecast with Mark Russoof Everstream Analytics. I'll
also tell you about it upcomingnext Tuesday, not tomorrow, but
the following one. Farm docwebinar related to the one big
beautiful bill act as it relatesto farm policy and the changes
of farm bill was written side ofthat act. You wanna be there for
(00:42):
that, and I'll give youinformation about how to get
yourself registered, and we'lldo all of that on this Monday
edition of the closing marketreport from Illinois Public
Media.
It is public radio for thefarming world online on demand
at willag.org. Todd Gleasonservices are made available to
(01:03):
WILL by University of IllinoisExtension. September corn today
at four zero three and a half,down sixteen and three quarters.
December at four twenty andthree quarters, 16 and a quarter
lower. And the March corn, down15 and a half cents at $4.37 and
a quarter.
August beans at $10.31 and ahalf down 24. November ten
twenty and three quarters, 28and a half cents lower. Bean
(01:26):
meal down $5. 20, the bean oil61¢ lower. Soft red winter wheat
in the December down 8 at $5.70and a quarter of the hard red
December at $5.52.
8 and three quarters of a centlower. Here to talk about these
numbers is Kurt Kimmel. He's atagmarket.net. Hello, Kurt. When
(01:46):
you opened the markets lastnight after the July 4 trade, I
know they opened lower gap downactually in both the December
and November contracts for cornand soybeans.
What were your concerns for the
Curt Kimmel (02:01):
Oh, boy. Here we go. Hang on. It's oh, yeah, it
was a kick between, you know,where and all of a sudden, you
know, gap and bump, But, man,there was so much optimism going
home Thursday with the the the,Trump speaking in Iowa. Most
generally, you see some type ofagriculture or something
(02:23):
positive.
Really couldn't grasp a wholelot out of that, speech. Then
two, the forecast, you know,kind of hit and miss. I I know
locally in Central NorthernIllinois is kind of, you know,
missed the rains, but man, youtake Decatur on south, there
were some two to three inchrains, take place. So, nothing
(02:48):
organized as a whole, big systemacross the Midwest, but there's
enough to kinda take the weatheredge off for a minute or two
here. In fact, this afternoon'scrop conditions report even
these rains, won't be probably,in in this report, but, corn,
good to excellent category,expected to be unchanged, 73%
(03:11):
good to excellent from, lastweek, 73%, beans, 67% good to
excellent, last week we were 66%good to excellent, wheat harvest
about 51% complete.
A year ago, we were 63%complete. Those will be out here
this afternoon. But the other,thing is just that as we got
(03:37):
into the mid part of the dayhere, there's talk that Trump's
gonna impose a 25% tariff on thegoods, Japan and South Korea.
And, man, these are two goodcorn customers. They're not as
big as Mexico as far as a corncustomer, but, these could be
(03:58):
implemented August 1 here.
So, you know, we're getting backin the mode here where, more,
tariff talk and that's not good.And this tariff talk is going be
up and down here for quite sometime. But the main thing is the
gap lower, is not good. Followthrough selling will put us
(04:19):
there to the recent lows hereand we need to make sure we hold
here or else we could probablysee some more technical or
selling take place. When youlook at what took place today,
the commodity funds going intomidday, they were sellers of
14,000 contracts of corn, 13,800beans, about 5,300 contracts a
(04:42):
week.
That was just going into middaytime.
Todd Gleason (04:45):
I would think that those who live near or deliver
to consolidated grain and bargeelevators might be watching
their bases. That could jump onthat news. It, of course, is
owned by Zeno, and they wouldwant to push grain to Japan.
They're a Japanese owned companyas quickly as possible. Of
course, the tariffs areimportant too.
Curt Kimmel (05:07):
Yeah, that's front and center, but basis is the
key. You hit the nail on thehead there because there's going
to be some opportunities in someareas to get a little pop up
basis here, take advantage ofthat and try to unload an old
crop. There's still someinventory old crop around,
mainly an elevator. When youlook at the grain stocks report
there, quite a bit was in theelevator. I know guys are gonna
(05:30):
hang on until they'll last thereuntil the guy calls them up and
wants to pay it in charge ornot.
But the other thing is, it's along ways away. Don't if it's
going to be a big change butwe'll have the WASI crop report
here at the end of the week. Youknow, the idea is, maybe they
(05:50):
can increase the yields slightlyin here but I don't think the
crop's, far enough along here tome making a whole lot of
adjustments. They'll fine tunedemand a little bit, corn
demand's a little better,expected, but they'll they'll,
subtract that from anotheranother category, but we'll have
those numbers here at the end ofthe week.
Todd Gleason (06:08):
Hey. Thanks so much. We'll talk with you again
next Monday.
Curt Kimmel (06:10):
You bet. Take care, Todd.
Todd Gleason (06:12):
It's Kurt Kimmel. He is with agmarket.net, joined
us on this Monday edition of theclosing market report that comes
to you from Illinois PublicMedia. Do visit our website,
willag.org. You can hear ourprograms anytime you'd like.
Click and play from the website,willag.0rg, or you can search
out the
(06:43):
I closing market report by namein your favorite podcast
applications. I'm University ofIllinois Extension's Todd
Gleason. Ed Asit, agriculturaleconomist at the University of
Minnesota, now joins us to takea broader look at the context of
the marketplace as related tothe fundamentals. Hi, Ed. Thank
you very much. First, just as areminder, you have a rule, thou
shalt not carry old crop corn orsoybeans into July.
(07:07):
I know that's been broken, butyou do have the you do have a
rule about that. And today,producers who have done so
probably are pretty worried, Iwould think, about what they can
look forward to the rest of thesummer. How do the fundamentals
setting up for corn and soybeansin your opinion?
Ed Usset (07:29):
Well, the crops look good. The, you know, we have the
crop conditions report comingout. I was just reviewing them
myself last week from a USperspective, Minnesota
perspective. It's looking verygood in general. There's always
gonna be some of your listeners.
Yeah. But it doesn't look goodhere. It doesn't look good
(07:49):
there. But in general, our croplooks good. The weather forecast
look good.
We're trading I I think that wetrade and have been trading, you
know, the ten day, two weekforecast. It looks good. It
looks good. And when it looksgood like that, we're gonna have
(08:11):
down days. By the way, I'm surethere are a number of sinners
out there who are holding oldcrop grain after July 1.
I call that the eleventhcommandment of grain marketing,
thou shall not hold cash, corn,or soybeans after July 1. And
(08:32):
that that it's funny. In yearspast, it's, I've had people ask
me, what are the first 10commandments in grandma? I said,
someone else handled the first10 commandments. I I just had
the eleventh.
Todd Gleason (08:45):
Well, I suppose if they've if they've got it, they
gambled with it, and so they'regonna be gambling the rest of
way out. Now let's do talk aboutnew crop because that is
something the producers will beextraordinarily worried about as
we head into pollination. It isprice times yields, so total
(09:08):
numbers change but not as muchas maybe as what you might think
as it's related to, the pricegoing down. How do you talk
through that for yourself andwhen you're thinking about
marketing?
Ed Usset (09:23):
Well, right now, I am I am looking at this bad day and
remembering an old saw in thegrain business. Don't know if it
holds up every year, but, thethought being you go with the
flow after the July 4. In otherwords, if things start to
collapse, it's not a good thing.If things if we get a rally
(09:44):
after the July 4, that you know,you go with the flow after the
July. That's why today is such acrushing disappointment, because
we're not off a bit.
We're off a lot. You know, rightnow, corn off $0.11 soybeans off
$0.28 It's not good. If we'rewaiting and I have been waiting
(10:07):
for a rally to sell, and Iregret having waited These small
rallies we've seen in the lastsix months, I'm like, Well,
that's not the rally I'm lookingfor. I'm looking for a big
rally. Hasn't shown up.
In fact, I don't know. There wasa soybean guy out of Nebraska,
(10:31):
late of this world. Roy Smith,soy Roy, would write on the
topic of soybeans. I don't knowif he invented this thought. He
talked about the John Deere low.
The John Deere low in grainmarkets happening in the
February, early March becausepeople had payments on their
(10:53):
their new tractors and newequipment, and it would force
the sale of grains. Well, guesswhen this year's high was? Yes.
It was during the John Deerelow. It was the February, early
March.
That's as good as we've seen. Icome back to, I'm looking at
December corn right now,somewhere near $4.25 and I I've
(11:17):
mentioned this before. Lookingat the December 24 contract. It
hit a low of $3.87. That's 30¢lower from 40¢ lower from where
we are today.
And I don't know why that can'tbe done again. I don't want it
to happen, but I don't know whywe can't revisit the lows of a
(11:38):
year ago. Likewise, forsoybeans, November beans are at
$10.20 a bushel. Not at its lifeof contract low that that
happened in mid December, butthe November 24 contract got
below $9.60 in August of lastyear. That's 60¢ lower.
(11:59):
Could we do that too?Unfortunately, yes.
Unfortunately, yes. So a person,if you're a corn grower, soybean
grower, look hard at the cropyou have, ask yourself, well, if
I if, if I've got to move somegrain at harvest, I don't have a
(12:21):
place on my farm for it. You'vegotta bite the bullet and get
something done.
Get something started anyway.
Todd Gleason (12:27):
That'll be very hard to do. Like you, I just
watched it go lower. I did makea sale earlier in the year, but
that Yeah. You you'd say, well,I have less sold now than I
thought I had sold. But maybemaybe if you're really thinking
about it, maybe you if you workoff of norms, you're maybe
(12:48):
closer.
But I think I have less saltthan I thought I had sold, and
that that's gonna make adifficult time between now and
harvest, especially if it has
Ed Usset (12:57):
especially if
Todd Gleason (12:58):
it has to go across the scale. Does it make a
difference very much for you ifit has if there's a home for it
on the farm between those twodifferent kinds of prospects?
Ed Usset (13:09):
Well, certainly, there I'm I'm seeing carries return,
particularly to the corn andwheat market, even the soybean
market. That is, we're lookingat the new crop December
contract, the new crop Novembercontract. But if you leap out
ahead to the May and Julycontracts of 02/1926, there's a
(13:30):
big carry in the market, andthere will be an opportunity for
people to store grain and sellthat carry and wait for a
stronger basis. It's gonna youknow, it's still gonna hurt
because those May and Julycontracts aren't gonna be at
levels you'd like them to be,but there will be an opportunity
(13:51):
to probably pick up an extra 50¢or more off the harvest price.
It's a it's a it's a legitimatepost harvest strategy, but I
think we'd rather get somethingsold at a little higher level to
start with.
Todd Gleason (14:07):
How do I do that exactly?
Ed Usset (14:09):
You wait for that rally we've been waiting for.
Todd, we we keep waiting forthat rally.
Todd Gleason (14:15):
And then you make the, sale for January delivery
or March delivery. And
Ed Usset (14:23):
You can do that. You can a couple of ways to make
that sale. A, you could justmake a new crop sale of,
November or November beans,December corn with the idea at
harvest, you'll roll that hedgeto the March, the May, or the
July contract of 02/1926, or youcould today make a sale of the
(14:46):
March, May, or July contractlooking at that carry and then
to, you know, put the grain inthe storage and think about what
will my basis be come nextspring, early summer.
Todd Gleason (14:58):
Indeed. Thank you much. I appreciate it. Yeah. And
we'll talk with you again inanother month.
Ed Usset (15:03):
Okay, sir. Okay.
Todd Gleason (15:05):
Ed Asit is an agricultural economist. He's at
the University of Minnesota.Extension there. Speaking of
extension, the PharmDoc team isscheduled for not tomorrow, but
a week from tomorrow on July 15,the webinar that that you will
most assuredly want to join.It's up on our calendar at
willag.
Already at the noon hour. OnJuly 15, the PharmDoc team will
(15:30):
present the changes that havetaken place in the One Big
Beautiful Bill Act as it relatesto the Farm Bill, how SEO has
changed, what some of the ARCand PLC programs changes will be
like, and what impact that mayhave across the whole of The
United States, particularlyacross the Corn Belt in the
(15:51):
Southeast. You'll want to besure to get yourself scheduled
for that. It will make adifference in your marketing
plans. I am almost positive.
I've not talked with them aboutall of the changes yet. Of
course, the house bill had somechanges. The senate updated
that. It all quickly was passedand then signed into
legislation. The PharmDoc teamis still working through the
(16:12):
process, and you'll want to bethere next Tuesday from noon to
one.
Watch our website, willag.org,for the updated link once that
becomes available. I'll put itthere so that you can register
for the PharmDoc webinar on July15 related to the one big
beautiful bill act and itsimpact on farm policy. Let's
(16:46):
turn our attention now to theever important weather forecast
heading into corn pollinationover the next three weeks. We're
now joined by Mark Russo. He'sat Everstream Analytics.
Hello, Mark. Thank you much. Iknow the first five to seven
days aren't too terriblydifficult to try to get a handle
on. It's further out thatbecomes a problem. However, we'd
(17:08):
like to have a good idea whatpollination might be like, over
the next three week period.
High temperatures, anything over93 degrees is difficult, and
really dry conditions can bedifficult, although we have, I
think, enough moisture in theground to to maybe make it
through in most places at thispoint. What are you seeing
(17:29):
across the Corn Belt? Does thislook like a good pollination
period or an okay one?
Mark Russo (17:34):
Well, Todd, looking ahead here for these next few
weeks, well, let's first talkabout temperatures. And I guess
to get right to the point herewith your question, we do not
see any significant heat stressfor corn pollination over the
next several weeks. All of themain heat, and by heat, we're
talking about consistent heatwith multiple days above 93 or
(17:57):
95 degrees Fahrenheit, that isall outside of the Midwest. In
fact, it's all far out acrossthe Western US, and no signs or
any signals here that point tothat moving into the Corn Belt
basically from now through theend of the month. The other item
(18:18):
of note here, and this is theturn to the rainfall side of
things.
We've seen continued rainactivity. Most of the Midwest
soil moisture has continued toimprove in most areas over the
past several weeks. There is onearea that has not done as well
as the rest of the Midwest, andthis is probably already known
(18:40):
here for our listeners, butthat's here in Illinois, which
were one area we haven't donequite as well. It hasn't been
that extreme, but this is theone part of the belt where
rainfall has been below normalto various extents over the past
several weeks. Looking ahead,there are opportunities for rain
(19:00):
and areas that have missed outhere on more meaningful rainfall
have good chances here toreceive rain.
It's especially true Central AndSouthern Illinois. Northern
Illinois is a little bit moredebatable, but, overall here,
those areas that haven't done aswell as others still have
opportunities to improve as wego through these next few weeks,
(19:23):
you know, without any heat.
Todd Gleason (19:24):
When you look into August, and I suspect you have
at some point thought about whatthat weather might look like,
does the heat return during thatmonth?
Mark Russo (19:34):
It's debatable right now here, Todd. There are some
mixed signals here for heatmoving in during the month of
August, At least for the earlyportion of August, call it,
like, the first week or so,there's no strong signals for
this. But, you know, can we saythat there will be no sustained
heat or turn to more significantdryness during August? We can't
(19:57):
go there yet. It's it's too it'stoo early to to have those
details.
Todd Gleason (20:01):
Early in the season, Noah forecast really,
really active hurricane season.I don't think that's been the
case. Do you expect those todevelop?
Mark Russo (20:13):
Well, right now, it's been generally quiet,
although there have been threenamed storms already that have
formed, but they have been veryweak storms. But they have
produced some localized heavyprecipitation parts of the
Southeast, like with Chantelthis past weekend or even
Barrie, one of the reasons whywe had the catastrophic and
(20:33):
deadly floods in isolated areasthere of Texas late last week.
We're not seeing any imminentthreats right now, but overall
this season, at least to us, isshaping up to be a little bit
above normal risk. And again,that's probably more so that
risk will be heightened as youget into the heart of the
season, which is really duringthe months of August, September,
(20:57):
and into early October.
Todd Gleason (20:58):
Turn your attention to places that have
been hot and dry, particularlyin Europe. What are you watching
today?
Mark Russo (21:05):
Yeah. Europe tops the list in terms of concerns
with summer crop development andand issues here, heat issues
with corn pollination inparticular. The next couple
weeks is going to maintain thehotter and drier theme across
much of Europe. It's not atotally dry pattern. There are
(21:28):
some opportunities for rain, butwe're not seeing any kind of
meaningful long term rainfall inthe biggest corn producing
countries within Europe.
And also another heat wave is ontap coming up this upcoming
weekend and next week. Modelguidance has backed off a little
bit on the intensity andduration of the heat compared to
how things look late last week,but we still feel it will
(21:50):
continue to increase stress andultimately reduce yield
potential.
Todd Gleason (21:54):
Thank you much. We'll talk with you again next
week.
Mark Russo (21:56):
You're welcome, Todd.
Todd Gleason (21:57):
Mark Crusoe is with Everstream Analytics joined
us on this Monday edition of theclosing market report from
Illinois Public Media. It'spublic radio for the farming
world. Now I should be travelingfor the rest of the week, taking
some time off to go to NorthernWisconsin. I'll be working
outside there, building aretaining wall for the week, so
(22:17):
you can think about me. Itshouldn't be too hot.
I checked with Mark as we werefinishing our conversation up
and probably won't get wet thereeither. Should be a good week.
Don't forget that on Tuesday ofnext week, and I'll be back by
the time this happens, I'll behosting this. The PharmDoc
webinar will take place taking alook at what was included in the
(22:40):
one big beautiful bill actrelated to farm policy and how
those changes will impactfarmers across Illinois and the
Corn Belt. You'll want to getyourself registered.
The registration links will beupdated at the willag.org
website in the calendar whenthat takes place. You may have
to scroll down to find it. It isat noon on July. You have a
(23:06):
great week. I'm IllinoisExtinction's Todd Gleeson.
From the Land Grant University in Urbana
Champaign, Illinois. This is theclosing market report. It is the
July 2025. I'm extension's ToddGleason. Coming up, we'll talk
about the commodity markets withKurt Kimmel.
He's at agmarket.net. We'll hearfrom agricultural economist at
the University of Minnesota, EdAssad, and we'll discuss the
(00:21):
weather forecast with Mark Russoof Everstream Analytics. I'll
also tell you about it upcomingnext Tuesday, not tomorrow, but
the following one. Farm docwebinar related to the one big
beautiful bill act as it relatesto farm policy and the changes
of farm bill was written side ofthat act. You wanna be there for
(00:42):
that, and I'll give youinformation about how to get
yourself registered, and we'lldo all of that on this Monday
edition of the closing marketreport from Illinois Public
Media.
It is public radio for thefarming world online on demand
at willag.org. Todd Gleasonservices are made available to
(01:03):
WILL by University of IllinoisExtension. September corn today
at four zero three and a half,down sixteen and three quarters.
December at four twenty andthree quarters, 16 and a quarter
lower. And the March corn, down15 and a half cents at $4.37 and
a quarter.
August beans at $10.31 and ahalf down 24. November ten
twenty and three quarters, 28and a half cents lower. Bean
(01:26):
meal down $5. 20, the bean oil61¢ lower. Soft red winter wheat
in the December down 8 at $5.70and a quarter of the hard red
December at $5.52.
8 and three quarters of a centlower. Here to talk about these
numbers is Kurt Kimmel. He's atagmarket.net. Hello, Kurt. When
(01:46):
you opened the markets lastnight after the July 4 trade, I
know they opened lower gap downactually in both the December
and November contracts for cornand soybeans.
What were your concerns for the
Curt Kimmel (02:01):
Oh, boy. Here we go. Hang on. It's oh, yeah, it
was a kick between, you know,where and all of a sudden, you
know, gap and bump, But, man,there was so much optimism going
home Thursday with the the the,Trump speaking in Iowa. Most
generally, you see some type ofagriculture or something
(02:23):
positive.
Really couldn't grasp a wholelot out of that, speech. Then
two, the forecast, you know,kind of hit and miss. I I know
locally in Central NorthernIllinois is kind of, you know,
missed the rains, but man, youtake Decatur on south, there
were some two to three inchrains, take place. So, nothing
(02:48):
organized as a whole, big systemacross the Midwest, but there's
enough to kinda take the weatheredge off for a minute or two
here. In fact, this afternoon'scrop conditions report even
these rains, won't be probably,in in this report, but, corn,
good to excellent category,expected to be unchanged, 73%
(03:11):
good to excellent from, lastweek, 73%, beans, 67% good to
excellent, last week we were 66%good to excellent, wheat harvest
about 51% complete.
A year ago, we were 63%complete. Those will be out here
this afternoon. But the other,thing is just that as we got
(03:37):
into the mid part of the dayhere, there's talk that Trump's
gonna impose a 25% tariff on thegoods, Japan and South Korea.
And, man, these are two goodcorn customers. They're not as
big as Mexico as far as a corncustomer, but, these could be
(03:58):
implemented August 1 here.
So, you know, we're getting backin the mode here where, more,
tariff talk and that's not good.And this tariff talk is going be
up and down here for quite sometime. But the main thing is the
gap lower, is not good. Followthrough selling will put us
(04:19):
there to the recent lows hereand we need to make sure we hold
here or else we could probablysee some more technical or
selling take place. When youlook at what took place today,
the commodity funds going intomidday, they were sellers of
14,000 contracts of corn, 13,800beans, about 5,300 contracts a
(04:42):
week.
That was just going into middaytime.
Todd Gleason (04:45):
I would think that those who live near or deliver
to consolidated grain and bargeelevators might be watching
their bases. That could jump onthat news. It, of course, is
owned by Zeno, and they wouldwant to push grain to Japan.
They're a Japanese owned companyas quickly as possible. Of
course, the tariffs areimportant too.
Curt Kimmel (05:07):
Yeah, that's front and center, but basis is the
key. You hit the nail on thehead there because there's going
to be some opportunities in someareas to get a little pop up
basis here, take advantage ofthat and try to unload an old
crop. There's still someinventory old crop around,
mainly an elevator. When youlook at the grain stocks report
there, quite a bit was in theelevator. I know guys are gonna
(05:30):
hang on until they'll last thereuntil the guy calls them up and
wants to pay it in charge ornot.
But the other thing is, it's along ways away. Don't if it's
going to be a big change butwe'll have the WASI crop report
here at the end of the week. Youknow, the idea is, maybe they
(05:50):
can increase the yields slightlyin here but I don't think the
crop's, far enough along here tome making a whole lot of
adjustments. They'll fine tunedemand a little bit, corn
demand's a little better,expected, but they'll they'll,
subtract that from anotheranother category, but we'll have
those numbers here at the end ofthe week.
Todd Gleason (06:08):
Hey. Thanks so much. We'll talk with you again
next Monday.
Curt Kimmel (06:10):
You bet. Take care, Todd.
Todd Gleason (06:12):
It's Kurt Kimmel. He is with agmarket.net, joined
us on this Monday edition of theclosing market report that comes
to you from Illinois PublicMedia. Do visit our website,
willag.org. You can hear ourprograms anytime you'd like.
Click and play from the website,willag.0rg, or you can search
out the
(06:43):
I closing market report by namein your favorite podcast
applications. I'm University ofIllinois Extension's Todd
Gleason. Ed Asit, agriculturaleconomist at the University of
Minnesota, now joins us to takea broader look at the context of
the marketplace as related tothe fundamentals. Hi, Ed. Thank
you very much. First, just as areminder, you have a rule, thou
shalt not carry old crop corn orsoybeans into July.
(07:07):
I know that's been broken, butyou do have the you do have a
rule about that. And today,producers who have done so
probably are pretty worried, Iwould think, about what they can
look forward to the rest of thesummer. How do the fundamentals
setting up for corn and soybeansin your opinion?
Ed Usset (07:29):
Well, the crops look good. The, you know, we have the
crop conditions report comingout. I was just reviewing them
myself last week from a USperspective, Minnesota
perspective. It's looking verygood in general. There's always
gonna be some of your listeners.
Yeah. But it doesn't look goodhere. It doesn't look good
(07:49):
there. But in general, our croplooks good. The weather forecast
look good.
We're trading I I think that wetrade and have been trading, you
know, the ten day, two weekforecast. It looks good. It
looks good. And when it looksgood like that, we're gonna have
(08:11):
down days. By the way, I'm surethere are a number of sinners
out there who are holding oldcrop grain after July 1.
I call that the eleventhcommandment of grain marketing,
thou shall not hold cash, corn,or soybeans after July 1. And
(08:32):
that that it's funny. In yearspast, it's, I've had people ask
me, what are the first 10commandments in grandma? I said,
someone else handled the first10 commandments. I I just had
the eleventh.
Todd Gleason (08:45):
Well, I suppose if they've if they've got it, they
gambled with it, and so they'regonna be gambling the rest of
way out. Now let's do talk aboutnew crop because that is
something the producers will beextraordinarily worried about as
we head into pollination. It isprice times yields, so total
(09:08):
numbers change but not as muchas maybe as what you might think
as it's related to, the pricegoing down. How do you talk
through that for yourself andwhen you're thinking about
marketing?
Ed Usset (09:23):
Well, right now, I am I am looking at this bad day and
remembering an old saw in thegrain business. Don't know if it
holds up every year, but, thethought being you go with the
flow after the July 4. In otherwords, if things start to
collapse, it's not a good thing.If things if we get a rally
(09:44):
after the July 4, that you know,you go with the flow after the
July. That's why today is such acrushing disappointment, because
we're not off a bit.
We're off a lot. You know, rightnow, corn off $0.11 soybeans off
$0.28 It's not good. If we'rewaiting and I have been waiting
(10:07):
for a rally to sell, and Iregret having waited These small
rallies we've seen in the lastsix months, I'm like, Well,
that's not the rally I'm lookingfor. I'm looking for a big
rally. Hasn't shown up.
In fact, I don't know. There wasa soybean guy out of Nebraska,
(10:31):
late of this world. Roy Smith,soy Roy, would write on the
topic of soybeans. I don't knowif he invented this thought. He
talked about the John Deere low.
The John Deere low in grainmarkets happening in the
February, early March becausepeople had payments on their
(10:53):
their new tractors and newequipment, and it would force
the sale of grains. Well, guesswhen this year's high was? Yes.
It was during the John Deerelow. It was the February, early
March.
That's as good as we've seen. Icome back to, I'm looking at
December corn right now,somewhere near $4.25 and I I've
(11:17):
mentioned this before. Lookingat the December 24 contract. It
hit a low of $3.87. That's 30¢lower from 40¢ lower from where
we are today.
And I don't know why that can'tbe done again. I don't want it
to happen, but I don't know whywe can't revisit the lows of a
(11:38):
year ago. Likewise, forsoybeans, November beans are at
$10.20 a bushel. Not at its lifeof contract low that that
happened in mid December, butthe November 24 contract got
below $9.60 in August of lastyear. That's 60¢ lower.
(11:59):
Could we do that too?Unfortunately, yes.
Unfortunately, yes. So a person,if you're a corn grower, soybean
grower, look hard at the cropyou have, ask yourself, well, if
I if, if I've got to move somegrain at harvest, I don't have a
(12:21):
place on my farm for it. You'vegotta bite the bullet and get
something done.
Get something started anyway.
Todd Gleason (12:27):
That'll be very hard to do. Like you, I just
watched it go lower. I did makea sale earlier in the year, but
that Yeah. You you'd say, well,I have less sold now than I
thought I had sold. But maybemaybe if you're really thinking
about it, maybe you if you workoff of norms, you're maybe
(12:48):
closer.
But I think I have less saltthan I thought I had sold, and
that that's gonna make adifficult time between now and
harvest, especially if it has
Ed Usset (12:57):
especially if
Todd Gleason (12:58):
it has to go across the scale. Does it make a
difference very much for you ifit has if there's a home for it
on the farm between those twodifferent kinds of prospects?
Ed Usset (13:09):
Well, certainly, there I'm I'm seeing carries return,
particularly to the corn andwheat market, even the soybean
market. That is, we're lookingat the new crop December
contract, the new crop Novembercontract. But if you leap out
ahead to the May and Julycontracts of 02/1926, there's a
(13:30):
big carry in the market, andthere will be an opportunity for
people to store grain and sellthat carry and wait for a
stronger basis. It's gonna youknow, it's still gonna hurt
because those May and Julycontracts aren't gonna be at
levels you'd like them to be,but there will be an opportunity
(13:51):
to probably pick up an extra 50¢or more off the harvest price.
It's a it's a it's a legitimatepost harvest strategy, but I
think we'd rather get somethingsold at a little higher level to
start with.
Todd Gleason (14:07):
How do I do that exactly?
Ed Usset (14:09):
You wait for that rally we've been waiting for.
Todd, we we keep waiting forthat rally.
Todd Gleason (14:15):
And then you make the, sale for January delivery
or March delivery. And
Ed Usset (14:23):
You can do that. You can a couple of ways to make
that sale. A, you could justmake a new crop sale of,
November or November beans,December corn with the idea at
harvest, you'll roll that hedgeto the March, the May, or the
July contract of 02/1926, or youcould today make a sale of the
(14:46):
March, May, or July contractlooking at that carry and then
to, you know, put the grain inthe storage and think about what
will my basis be come nextspring, early summer.
Todd Gleason (14:58):
Indeed. Thank you much. I appreciate it. Yeah. And
we'll talk with you again inanother month.
Ed Usset (15:03):
Okay, sir. Okay.
Todd Gleason (15:05):
Ed Asit is an agricultural economist. He's at
the University of Minnesota.Extension there. Speaking of
extension, the PharmDoc team isscheduled for not tomorrow, but
a week from tomorrow on July 15,the webinar that that you will
most assuredly want to join.It's up on our calendar at
willag.
Already at the noon hour. OnJuly 15, the PharmDoc team will
(15:30):
present the changes that havetaken place in the One Big
Beautiful Bill Act as it relatesto the Farm Bill, how SEO has
changed, what some of the ARCand PLC programs changes will be
like, and what impact that mayhave across the whole of The
United States, particularlyacross the Corn Belt in the
(15:51):
Southeast. You'll want to besure to get yourself scheduled
for that. It will make adifference in your marketing
plans. I am almost positive.
I've not talked with them aboutall of the changes yet. Of
course, the house bill had somechanges. The senate updated
that. It all quickly was passedand then signed into
legislation. The PharmDoc teamis still working through the
(16:12):
process, and you'll want to bethere next Tuesday from noon to
one.
Watch our website, willag.org,for the updated link once that
becomes available. I'll put itthere so that you can register
for the PharmDoc webinar on July15 related to the one big
beautiful bill act and itsimpact on farm policy. Let's
(16:46):
turn our attention now to theever important weather forecast
heading into corn pollinationover the next three weeks. We're
now joined by Mark Russo. He'sat Everstream Analytics.
Hello, Mark. Thank you much. Iknow the first five to seven
days aren't too terriblydifficult to try to get a handle
on. It's further out thatbecomes a problem. However, we'd
(17:08):
like to have a good idea whatpollination might be like, over
the next three week period.
High temperatures, anything over93 degrees is difficult, and
really dry conditions can bedifficult, although we have, I
think, enough moisture in theground to to maybe make it
through in most places at thispoint. What are you seeing
(17:29):
across the Corn Belt? Does thislook like a good pollination
period or an okay one?
Mark Russo (17:34):
Well, Todd, looking ahead here for these next few
weeks, well, let's first talkabout temperatures. And I guess
to get right to the point herewith your question, we do not
see any significant heat stressfor corn pollination over the
next several weeks. All of themain heat, and by heat, we're
talking about consistent heatwith multiple days above 93 or
(17:57):
95 degrees Fahrenheit, that isall outside of the Midwest. In
fact, it's all far out acrossthe Western US, and no signs or
any signals here that point tothat moving into the Corn Belt
basically from now through theend of the month. The other item
(18:18):
of note here, and this is theturn to the rainfall side of
things.
We've seen continued rainactivity. Most of the Midwest
soil moisture has continued toimprove in most areas over the
past several weeks. There is onearea that has not done as well
as the rest of the Midwest, andthis is probably already known
(18:40):
here for our listeners, butthat's here in Illinois, which
were one area we haven't donequite as well. It hasn't been
that extreme, but this is theone part of the belt where
rainfall has been below normalto various extents over the past
several weeks. Looking ahead,there are opportunities for rain
(19:00):
and areas that have missed outhere on more meaningful rainfall
have good chances here toreceive rain.
It's especially true Central AndSouthern Illinois. Northern
Illinois is a little bit moredebatable, but, overall here,
those areas that haven't done aswell as others still have
opportunities to improve as wego through these next few weeks,
(19:23):
you know, without any heat.
Todd Gleason (19:24):
When you look into August, and I suspect you have
at some point thought about whatthat weather might look like,
does the heat return during thatmonth?
Mark Russo (19:34):
It's debatable right now here, Todd. There are some
mixed signals here for heatmoving in during the month of
August, At least for the earlyportion of August, call it,
like, the first week or so,there's no strong signals for
this. But, you know, can we saythat there will be no sustained
heat or turn to more significantdryness during August? We can't
(19:57):
go there yet. It's it's too it'stoo early to to have those
details.
Todd Gleason (20:01):
Early in the season, Noah forecast really,
really active hurricane season.I don't think that's been the
case. Do you expect those todevelop?
Mark Russo (20:13):
Well, right now, it's been generally quiet,
although there have been threenamed storms already that have
formed, but they have been veryweak storms. But they have
produced some localized heavyprecipitation parts of the
Southeast, like with Chantelthis past weekend or even
Barrie, one of the reasons whywe had the catastrophic and
(20:33):
deadly floods in isolated areasthere of Texas late last week.
We're not seeing any imminentthreats right now, but overall
this season, at least to us, isshaping up to be a little bit
above normal risk. And again,that's probably more so that
risk will be heightened as youget into the heart of the
season, which is really duringthe months of August, September,
(20:57):
and into early October.
Todd Gleason (20:58):
Turn your attention to places that have
been hot and dry, particularlyin Europe. What are you watching
today?
Mark Russo (21:05):
Yeah. Europe tops the list in terms of concerns
with summer crop development andand issues here, heat issues
with corn pollination inparticular. The next couple
weeks is going to maintain thehotter and drier theme across
much of Europe. It's not atotally dry pattern. There are
(21:28):
some opportunities for rain, butwe're not seeing any kind of
meaningful long term rainfall inthe biggest corn producing
countries within Europe.
And also another heat wave is ontap coming up this upcoming
weekend and next week. Modelguidance has backed off a little
bit on the intensity andduration of the heat compared to
how things look late last week,but we still feel it will
(21:50):
continue to increase stress andultimately reduce yield
potential.
Todd Gleason (21:54):
Thank you much. We'll talk with you again next
week.
Mark Russo (21:56):
You're welcome, Todd.
Todd Gleason (21:57):
Mark Crusoe is with Everstream Analytics joined
us on this Monday edition of theclosing market report from
Illinois Public Media. It'spublic radio for the farming
world. Now I should be travelingfor the rest of the week, taking
some time off to go to NorthernWisconsin. I'll be working
outside there, building aretaining wall for the week, so
(22:17):
you can think about me. Itshouldn't be too hot.
I checked with Mark as we werefinishing our conversation up
and probably won't get wet thereeither. Should be a good week.
Don't forget that on Tuesday ofnext week, and I'll be back by
the time this happens, I'll behosting this. The PharmDoc
webinar will take place taking alook at what was included in the
(22:40):
one big beautiful bill actrelated to farm policy and how
those changes will impactfarmers across Illinois and the
Corn Belt. You'll want to getyourself registered.
The registration links will beupdated at the willag.org
website in the calendar whenthat takes place. You may have
to scroll down to find it. It isat noon on July. You have a
(23:06):
great week. I'm IllinoisExtinction's Todd Gleeson.
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