July 14, 2025 • 23 mins
One Big Beautiful Farm Bill WEBINAR Tomorrow
REGISTER willag.org (farmdoc team)
- Curt Kimmel, AgMarket.net
- Frayne Olson, NDSU Ag Economist
- Mark Russo, EverStream Analytics Wx
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Todd Gleason (00:00):
From the land of Grant University in Urbana
(00:02):
Champaign, Illinois. This is theclosing market reported as the
July 2025. I'm extension's ToddGleason. Coming up, we'll talk
about the commodity markets withKurt Kimmel at agmarket.net.
We'll be joined by Freyne Olsen,agricultural economist at North
Dakota State UniversityExtension.
I'll ask him about that very lowseason's average cash price,
(00:23):
$4.20, for the 2025 cornharvest, and then we'll turn
attention the weather forecastwith Mark Russo of Everstream
Analytics. And along the way,I'll remind you to sign up for
tomorrow's webinar with FarmDocteam as it's related to the One
Big Beautiful Bill Act and thechanges it has made in both crop
(00:46):
insurance and commodity titles.These may have an impact on your
marketing. You'll want to besure to get yourself signed up.
The program runs from noon untilone p.
M. Tomorrow. And you can findall the information on that
webinar on our website atwillag.org. That's willag.0rg.
announcer (01:08):
Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by
University of IllinoisExtension.
Todd Gleason (01:13):
September corn today, $4 even, up 4¢. December
at $4.18 on its settlement, upfive and three quarters. And
March, five and three quartershigher. Settlement price at
$4.34 and 3 quarters. Augustbeans, down three and a quarter
at $10 and a penny.
November at $10.00 7, down aquarter of a cent. Here to talk
about these numbers in the USDAreport from Friday is Kurt
(01:35):
Kimmel of agmarket.net. Hi,Kurt. Thanks for being with us.
Pick up with that report onFriday.
We can dismiss it fairlyquickly. We'll come back to it
too, in a bit with Freyne Olsenfrom North Dakota State
University. But the marketplace,looked at it and said, yeah, we
thought those numbers were whatthey were gonna be even though
they were a little friendly, Iguess.
Curt Kimmel (01:54):
Yeah. When you when you look at the big picture
here, old corn one three, newcorn one six six is relatively
tight, by all means. They kindof shook it off from better
expectations for this new crop.Old crop beans unchanged at
$3.50, new crop beans raises up15,000,000 to $3.10. So, you
(02:18):
know, it's one of thosesituations where it's kind of a
kick in the teeth when you lookat, a little tighter supply
demand balance sheet the marketthat went lower last scratching
their heads there.
But looking fast forward inthrough here, staffing's crop
conditions reports continue toshow the corn crop 74% good to
(02:39):
excellent and the soybean cropimproving 1% to 67% good to
excellent. So, the the corn'ssix points above a year last
year. The beans are behind about1% in that good to excellent
category. But you can break thegood to excellent category poor,
(03:00):
very poor down and kinda justifyany any type of position. But
the main thing is on cornparticularly as we move into
this week here about 50% of thecrops moving into pollination
and feeders and alts are lockingin a higher yield than the 181.
(03:27):
Some extra 87,000,000 bushels ofcorn to work with. Yields kind
of discussion right now. As faras on the demand, boy, it's kind
of hard to really step in andfine tune it, but yield has
continued to be the benchmark.And the market today actually
(03:51):
shook off that news, we saw cornfinish 3 to 5¢ higher, actually
a new contract low, closedhigher, closed at last week's
high, so I don't know if you canreally key price reversal to the
upside, but most definitely, theovernight lows going to be
supported through here. Beansfinished just a little soft,
(04:13):
these can hold their, theirgains.
Some of the emphasis for theturnaround is, one is we've got,
another hot dry forecast, July19 through the twenty fourth,
expect the ridge, take place.Then secondly, two, I guess
social media gets the star forthe day, whether it really
helped or not. There's a lot ofcoverage on Missouri and
(04:35):
Arkansas. One particularcompany, one particular number
just did not pollinate at all,with the good weather they saw.
Todd Gleason (04:44):
So, we did drop out for just a second. What I
didn't hear from you was whatthe trade was discussing as it's
related to an increase in yield.I just didn't hear the yield
number. Heard the one eightyone, but now are they at 183 and
184? What number were theyusing?
Curt Kimmel (05:01):
All above there. I think a lot is one 180 3 to 100
85. That 185 is the highestwe've seen in through here And
whenever you just increase, onebushel per acre, that's gonna
put an extra 87,000,000 bushels,to the supply demand balance
sheet. But, I think we'retrading 184 here at the present
(05:24):
time, you know subject to changehere as we go through the next
thirty days.
Todd Gleason (05:29):
So are you expecting that this contract low
and you discussed the not quiteoutside update that we had, do
you think that contract low canfind traction as a possible low
for this marketplace going intothe fall?
Curt Kimmel (05:45):
I think it could be a short term low here over the
near term and put in a so calledlittle bit of a balance or, or
retracement, but it's going tobe awful hard, for the markets
to sustain some strength here.One, we still have some old crop
inventories to move and two,we're going to see the, this,
(06:05):
well, we're seeing harvest takeplace in Texas, but the the
delta is gonna pick up here in acouple weeks. We're gonna have
plenty of supply on the markethere as we move into, the next
month or two.
Todd Gleason (06:17):
Hey. Thank you much. I appreciate it, Kurt.
Curt Kimmel (06:19):
Very good. Take care.
Todd Gleason (06:20):
Kurt Kimmel is with agmarket.net. Now on that
last note about the supply thathas to move out of the old crop,
we do discuss that with FreyneOlsen in just a few moments. So
stay with us here on the closingmarket report from Illinois
Public Media. And don't forget,you should sign up for
tomorrow's one big beautifulbill act farm policy impact
(06:42):
webinar with the PharmDoc teamthat starts at noon. You can
find all the information on ourwebsite at wilag.org.
That's willag.org. I'mUniversity of Illinois
(07:07):
Extension's Todd Gleason. FraynOlson, agricultural economist at
North Dakota State Universitywith extension in Fargo now
joins us. Thank you, Frame, fortaking some time with us. I'd
like to cover a couple ofthings.
Of course, we had a WASDE, theJuly report on Friday of last
week. We have some tariffs todiscuss potentially that the
(07:29):
president is thinking aboutputting on, the largest importer
of corn, Mexico, starting August1. So let's start with what, the
WASDE report told us about themarketplace when it was
released. It should have beenbullish, however, or a little
more friendly, I suppose.However, the marketplace
(07:50):
dismissed it fairly quickly.
What did you see in it?
Frayne Olson (07:53):
Yes. So I I you know, there's two ways to think
about the numbers that come comeout from the WASDE. One is to
say, well, what's the numbersthis month relative to last
month? So it was a change, whichwe we spend a lot of time
focusing on and making makingsure everybody understands those
adjustments. But for a lot ofthe market analysts and traders,
they've already made thoseadjustments in their in their
(08:15):
heads, and so they're looking atit saying, well, what do we
expect to see versus what weactually saw?
So, for example, the trade wasexpecting to see some small
adjustments in ending stocks forboth corn and beans, and we got
those. The numbers coming out ofUSDA were very similar to what
the trade was expecting. So thisbusiness of what are we
(08:39):
comparing it to becomes anissue. What I always try and
explain to everybody is youknow, what we had last month is
great, but if we're if the tradeis expecting some adjustments,
are those adjustments coming outof USDA similar to what they
were expecting to see? Andthat's usually when we get some
big shifts or adjustments in themarketplace is when expectations
(09:00):
are different from what what theactual numbers are.
And and so when we comparethose, the the USDA numbers came
out very close to what the tradewas expecting to see.
Todd Gleason (09:10):
On that adjustment side, just looking at the corn
balance sheets, there will be anadjustment from old crop to new
crop of about 300,000,000bushels in terms of carryout
from 1.34, which I think mostwould say is a fairly tight
carryout for the old crop to1,660,000,000 for the new crop,
(09:34):
and Mhmm. That's, I guess, a afair carryout. How do you view
that, and the transition fromthis marketing year to the next
marketing year?
Frayne Olson (09:45):
Right. And and then and we're in that stage
stage of our marketing seasonwhere we're we're kinda
balancing two sets of numbers.As you mentioned, we've got the
old crop numbers. We've gotgrain in the bin. We've got
grain in the system from lastyear.
We're trying to say, Well, howthin are those supplies going to
be before we hit the new crop aswe get into the harvest for the
(10:06):
new crop season? The old cropnumbers coming in, so the amount
of inventory we have in the bin,whether it be on farm or in
commercial storage, it is alittle bit on the tight side.
It's not desperately tight.We're not completely freaking
out over this, but it is a biton the tight side. And so if
you're a corn user, a consumerof corn right now, whether it be
(10:26):
livestock or an ethanol plant oran exporter, to get those
supplies to the new crop harvestis gonna be a little bit tricky.
So they're trying to ration theold crop a little bit
differently than the new crop.And and most of the folks,
especially, you know, thefarmer, farm managers around the
area are looking at the new cropnumbers and saying, it looks
(10:47):
like we have a pretty darn goodcorn crop as well as a pretty
good bean crop coming in 2025harvest, but we have to get
there first. And so there's thisdifference in pricing. When do
you need the crop? I mean, whendo you need your bushels as a
consumer?
And then what kind of supplieswe're looking at? And The new
crop supplies, the crop that'sstill growing in the field,
(11:08):
those look to be much stronger.I'm not going to say that
they're burdensome, but we havea much more comfortable supply
chain for the new crop than wedo for the old crop. As I was
looking back through thenumbers, we've seen higher
estimates for carryout at thistime of the year. If you look
back a couple years, we wereexpecting some really, really
(11:30):
big carryout above 2,000,000,000bushels.
And so we're below that rightnow, but it's still much more
comfortable than we saw in thein the old crop numbers, which
are getting a little bit tight,mainly because of some pretty
good export sales.
Todd Gleason (11:43):
So I do wanna talk about the stocks to use ratio.
This is, the number, I think,that comes in giving some kind
of context to to the $4.20 cashprice that USDA is using for the
coming year, which mostproducers are going to say,
well, gosh, how could it be$4.20 if when we had
(12:03):
2,000,000,000 bushels, we were$485? What what what's the
difference here? And stocks touse ratio really just gives you
the supply and the demand bothin in kind of an estimate, and
it's telling us, I guess, thatwe're pretty adequately supplied
at this point looking forward.
Frayne Olson (12:19):
Correct. And so so there's there's two things going
on. So when I when I look backhistorically and do kind of the
analysis, what I find is thatwhen we get really tight,
there's kind of a tipping point.When we get started getting
really tight, we tend to seereally high prices, a lot of
price volatility. And thenthere's there's a a point where
it seems like the the themarkets get much more
(12:41):
comfortable.
We start to see prices fallingand a lot more price stability.
And that tipping point from mymath is about 10% carryover
stocks. So if you have less than10 carryover stocks on corn,
things get a little bit tightand and the market gets a little
bit nervous and it's like, well,we gotta make make sure that we
don't run out. And on the flipside, we get over 10%, the
(13:03):
comfort falls in and and peoplecome become less anxious. The
other thing that's going onthough in in this year that's a
little bit different than we'veseen in the past, we tend to
focus supply demand or yourstocks to use ratio is really
focused on domestic productionand consumption.
For corn, our exports are 15%,18% of our total use. This year,
(13:26):
the Brazilian crop, inparticular the Brazilian
safrinha crop, is lookingexceptionally good. The safrinha
crop, or what they call thewinter crop, accounts for about
75% of the total bushelsproduced in Brazil. So their
safrinha crop is looking verygood, which really also signals
we are going to have a lot ofcompetition in the international
(13:48):
market. So yes, we have most ofour use for corn in The US is
domestic in the livestock sectoror in ethanol, but we do rely on
that export market to be able toget rid of a pretty significant
number of bushels.
It's that export market I thinksome of the traders are looking
at and saying, We have to beprice competitive versus the
Brazilians to be able to makethose sales. And and that's why
(14:11):
I think they're getting a littlebit more anxious and saying, you
know, this is gonna be acompetitive, export season for
the next several months.
Todd Gleason (14:17):
Okay. So now let's talk about prices going forward
looking at the Decembercontract, and we are approaching
that four dollar level, around$4.15, $4.16 for the day. We
have made new contract lows asearly today, in fact. And and
(14:39):
I'm wanting to know, when youlook at this marketplace, is
there room to push this marketto $3.80 through the harvest
season when we're going acrossthe scale, and having to put
bushels in the elevator with anin charge? And how should
producers think about thosebushels?
Frayne Olson (14:59):
So that's a really tricky question, and it And it
really does depend upon theindividual producer. So here's
the setup I'm concerned about.Rephrase the question as to how
could we get to those lowlevels, especially coming into
harvest? What series of eventswould have to occur? Well,
first, we would have to havecontinued favorable weather
(15:22):
conditions through the end ofthe pollination season and
through the end of the growingseason.
So we start getting really goodtest weights, our bushel counts
start to come up, we get big,big, cob length as well as cob
thickness, all of that can startadding to yield. The other thing
I'm a little bit concerned aboutis I do know at least up here in
(15:43):
the North, we still have a lotof old crop corn in the bins.
And what I'm a little concernedis given the fact that we've got
what looks to be a very good newcrop corn coming in, that we're
gonna have to try and cleanthose bins out at least to have
some storage space to be able tokeep the combines running as
well as to try and find enoughroom for everything. So if we
(16:05):
have really good corn crop, wehave a really good soybean crop
on farm storage, I think it'sgonna be at a premium, which
means we might get a a flush ofsales starting in probably late
July or August to try and getthose cleans those bins cleaned
out. That's typicallyhistorically at a time where we
don't have a lot of exportdemand.
(16:25):
It's a little bit harder to tryand find room for everything.
The elevators are also going tobe in the same position where
they are not going to want tohave a lot of old crop corn in
storage coming into harvestbecause they are going to have
as much working room andflexibility as possible. So I
get a little bit concerned thatif we start having this flush of
farm level sales coming intoharvest, that we have to push
(16:49):
those through the system beforewe get into the harvest months
the peak of that harvest rush.So I get a little bit concerned
that not only from a futurestandpoint, but also from a
basis standpoint, we might startseeing some of the basis soften
as we come into harvest,assuming now again that the
(17:10):
weather conditions hold and thatour expectations and our
viewpoints about what yield isgoing to be maintained. I think
the bias right now is for a verygood crop, and it might be
getting larger depending uponwhat happens again in in August
and and with temperatures andrainfall.
Todd Gleason (17:26):
Thank you much. I appreciate it, and we'll talk
with you again in another month.
Frayne Olson (17:29):
Alright. Always a pleasure, Todd.
Todd Gleason (17:31):
That's Frey Olson, agricultural economist from
North Dakota State UniversityExtension. He's based in Fargo.
If you'd like to hear hiscomments again, you can do that
on our website. Look for theclosing market report today at
willag.org willag.0rg or searchit out in your favorite podcast
applications by name, closingmarket report. If you're at our
(17:54):
website, you'll be able tolisten to not only today's
closing market report, but ifyou hit the podcast tab, you'll
see the closing market reportfor the last six days as well.
That's all at willag.0rg. Let'scheck the weather forecast for
(18:16):
the growing regions across theplanet. Mark Russo is here. He's
with Everstream Analytics.Hello, Mark.
Thanks for being with us againon a Monday.
Mark Russo (18:24):
Hi there, Todd. Thanks for having me.
Todd Gleason (18:25):
Let's start with the Corn Belt. Give me the short
term forecast. We have had somerain quite a bit actually in
some places. Who missed it, ifanybody? And what can we expect
over the next, I don't know,three to five days?
Mark Russo (18:40):
Yeah. Certainly, Northern Northern And Central
Illinois, were the winners herewith the rain activity here over
the weekend or late last week aswell. And that was the area that
needed it, considering the drierconditions that were in place
from late June into early July.So that dryness has basically
(19:01):
been solved. And lookingforward, there continue to be
opportunities for rain, not onlyin Illinois, but across much of
the Corn Belt.
Now a few areas of Indiana andOhio could use more rain here
coming up, and they do havechances. So overall here,
rainfall over the next couple ofweeks looks to register not that
far from normal. So for anyremaining dry pockets, they have
(19:26):
really good opportunities toimprove. As for temperatures
coming up, for the nextbasically from now through the
end of the month, we're notseeing any yield threatening
heat. However, we are keeping aneye on some longer range
computer model guidancesuggesting that temperatures
(19:46):
will be quite toasty here andsome heat actually building in
right around August 1.
So something to keep an eye on,but we have a ways to go there.
Todd Gleason (19:56):
What is it that tells you that might be the
case?
Mark Russo (19:59):
A couple of different things, Todd. Number
one, in terms of computer modelguidance, just in the past
twenty four hours, we saw prettystrong signal in all of the
guidance of this kind of broaderor stronger ridging of high
pressure across more of theSouthern Half of The US, but
that does build into theMidwest. And because of the
(20:19):
stronger signal in guidance,that definitely has caught our
attention here. And then alsowe're seeing across the entire
Northern Hemisphere actuallythis strengthening of ridging,
but being more displaced southof what it was back over the
past several weeks or even backin the June as well. And so that
(20:40):
also is something that hassignaled potentially some
changes on the way as weapproach August 1.
Todd Gleason (20:47):
Now because you talked about this being across
the whole of the NorthernHemisphere, does it change
anything in Europe at all?
Mark Russo (20:54):
It is. For the next couple of weeks or the July,
things are looking improved herein terms of rainfall and
reducing the anomaloustemperatures or heat that has
influenced and still influenceEurope this week. But the
overall pattern for the next twoweeks, it's becoming, more
troughy, and that is allowingmore opportunities for rain and
(21:17):
also beginning to cooltemperatures down and helping to
stabilize their summer crops,especially corn, which has been
hit here recently by heat andsome of the lowest soil moisture
for this time of year of thepast twenty years.
Todd Gleason (21:31):
So that covers France. If you're doing corn,
then probably Serbia,Yugoslavia, those places as
well.
Mark Russo (21:37):
Yeah. Both in Western And Eastern Europe,
France, Germany, Poland, downthrough Romania, Bulgaria. The
only area within those countriesname that at least they won't
improve or stabilize as much asthe rest, that would be portions
of Romania down into Bulgaria.
Todd Gleason (21:56):
Thank you much. We'll talk with you again next
week.
Mark Russo (21:58):
You're welcome, Todd.
Todd Gleason (22:00):
That is Mark Russo. He is with Everstream
Analytics, joined us on thisMonday edition of the closing
market report from IllinoisPublic Medium. It is public
radio for the farming world. Youcan find and listen to our
programming online anytime you'dlike. The address is willag.org,
willag.0rg.
Where right now, and don'tforget to do this, you may sign
(22:21):
up for tomorrow's noon to one pm farm doc webinar related to
the one big beautiful bill actand how it will change crop
insurance, SEO, ARC, and PLC.You wanna join us at that time.
Again, that's noon with theFarmDoc team, the agricultural
economist here on the UrbanaChampaign campus of the
(22:43):
University of Illinois. Awebinar for you as it's related
to agriculture and farm policyand changes that came with the
one big beautiful bill act thatwas signed into law by president
Trump. Do that at willag.0rg.
The webinar is tomorrow fromnoon to one p. M. I'm University
(23:05):
of Illinois Extension's ToddGleason. You have a great
afternoon.
From the land of Grant University in Urbana
(00:02):
Champaign, Illinois. This is theclosing market reported as the
July 2025. I'm extension's ToddGleason. Coming up, we'll talk
about the commodity markets withKurt Kimmel at agmarket.net.
We'll be joined by Freyne Olsen,agricultural economist at North
Dakota State UniversityExtension.
I'll ask him about that very lowseason's average cash price,
(00:23):
$4.20, for the 2025 cornharvest, and then we'll turn
attention the weather forecastwith Mark Russo of Everstream
Analytics. And along the way,I'll remind you to sign up for
tomorrow's webinar with FarmDocteam as it's related to the One
Big Beautiful Bill Act and thechanges it has made in both crop
(00:46):
insurance and commodity titles.These may have an impact on your
marketing. You'll want to besure to get yourself signed up.
The program runs from noon untilone p.
M. Tomorrow. And you can findall the information on that
webinar on our website atwillag.org. That's willag.0rg.
announcer (01:08):
Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by
University of IllinoisExtension.
Todd Gleason (01:13):
September corn today, $4 even, up 4¢. December
at $4.18 on its settlement, upfive and three quarters. And
March, five and three quartershigher. Settlement price at
$4.34 and 3 quarters. Augustbeans, down three and a quarter
at $10 and a penny.
November at $10.00 7, down aquarter of a cent. Here to talk
about these numbers in the USDAreport from Friday is Kurt
(01:35):
Kimmel of agmarket.net. Hi,Kurt. Thanks for being with us.
Pick up with that report onFriday.
We can dismiss it fairlyquickly. We'll come back to it
too, in a bit with Freyne Olsenfrom North Dakota State
University. But the marketplace,looked at it and said, yeah, we
thought those numbers were whatthey were gonna be even though
they were a little friendly, Iguess.
Curt Kimmel (01:54):
Yeah. When you when you look at the big picture
here, old corn one three, newcorn one six six is relatively
tight, by all means. They kindof shook it off from better
expectations for this new crop.Old crop beans unchanged at
$3.50, new crop beans raises up15,000,000 to $3.10. So, you
(02:18):
know, it's one of thosesituations where it's kind of a
kick in the teeth when you lookat, a little tighter supply
demand balance sheet the marketthat went lower last scratching
their heads there.
But looking fast forward inthrough here, staffing's crop
conditions reports continue toshow the corn crop 74% good to
(02:39):
excellent and the soybean cropimproving 1% to 67% good to
excellent. So, the the corn'ssix points above a year last
year. The beans are behind about1% in that good to excellent
category. But you can break thegood to excellent category poor,
(03:00):
very poor down and kinda justifyany any type of position. But
the main thing is on cornparticularly as we move into
this week here about 50% of thecrops moving into pollination
and feeders and alts are lockingin a higher yield than the 181.
(03:27):
Some extra 87,000,000 bushels ofcorn to work with. Yields kind
of discussion right now. As faras on the demand, boy, it's kind
of hard to really step in andfine tune it, but yield has
continued to be the benchmark.And the market today actually
(03:51):
shook off that news, we saw cornfinish 3 to 5¢ higher, actually
a new contract low, closedhigher, closed at last week's
high, so I don't know if you canreally key price reversal to the
upside, but most definitely, theovernight lows going to be
supported through here. Beansfinished just a little soft,
(04:13):
these can hold their, theirgains.
Some of the emphasis for theturnaround is, one is we've got,
another hot dry forecast, July19 through the twenty fourth,
expect the ridge, take place.Then secondly, two, I guess
social media gets the star forthe day, whether it really
helped or not. There's a lot ofcoverage on Missouri and
(04:35):
Arkansas. One particularcompany, one particular number
just did not pollinate at all,with the good weather they saw.
Todd Gleason (04:44):
So, we did drop out for just a second. What I
didn't hear from you was whatthe trade was discussing as it's
related to an increase in yield.I just didn't hear the yield
number. Heard the one eightyone, but now are they at 183 and
184? What number were theyusing?
Curt Kimmel (05:01):
All above there. I think a lot is one 180 3 to 100
85. That 185 is the highestwe've seen in through here And
whenever you just increase, onebushel per acre, that's gonna
put an extra 87,000,000 bushels,to the supply demand balance
sheet. But, I think we'retrading 184 here at the present
(05:24):
time, you know subject to changehere as we go through the next
thirty days.
Todd Gleason (05:29):
So are you expecting that this contract low
and you discussed the not quiteoutside update that we had, do
you think that contract low canfind traction as a possible low
for this marketplace going intothe fall?
Curt Kimmel (05:45):
I think it could be a short term low here over the
near term and put in a so calledlittle bit of a balance or, or
retracement, but it's going tobe awful hard, for the markets
to sustain some strength here.One, we still have some old crop
inventories to move and two,we're going to see the, this,
(06:05):
well, we're seeing harvest takeplace in Texas, but the the
delta is gonna pick up here in acouple weeks. We're gonna have
plenty of supply on the markethere as we move into, the next
month or two.
Todd Gleason (06:17):
Hey. Thank you much. I appreciate it, Kurt.
Curt Kimmel (06:19):
Very good. Take care.
Todd Gleason (06:20):
Kurt Kimmel is with agmarket.net. Now on that
last note about the supply thathas to move out of the old crop,
we do discuss that with FreyneOlsen in just a few moments. So
stay with us here on the closingmarket report from Illinois
Public Media. And don't forget,you should sign up for
tomorrow's one big beautifulbill act farm policy impact
(06:42):
webinar with the PharmDoc teamthat starts at noon. You can
find all the information on ourwebsite at wilag.org.
That's willag.org. I'mUniversity of Illinois
(07:07):
Extension's Todd Gleason. FraynOlson, agricultural economist at
North Dakota State Universitywith extension in Fargo now
joins us. Thank you, Frame, fortaking some time with us. I'd
like to cover a couple ofthings.
Of course, we had a WASDE, theJuly report on Friday of last
week. We have some tariffs todiscuss potentially that the
(07:29):
president is thinking aboutputting on, the largest importer
of corn, Mexico, starting August1. So let's start with what, the
WASDE report told us about themarketplace when it was
released. It should have beenbullish, however, or a little
more friendly, I suppose.However, the marketplace
(07:50):
dismissed it fairly quickly.
What did you see in it?
Frayne Olson (07:53):
Yes. So I I you know, there's two ways to think
about the numbers that come comeout from the WASDE. One is to
say, well, what's the numbersthis month relative to last
month? So it was a change, whichwe we spend a lot of time
focusing on and making makingsure everybody understands those
adjustments. But for a lot ofthe market analysts and traders,
they've already made thoseadjustments in their in their
(08:15):
heads, and so they're looking atit saying, well, what do we
expect to see versus what weactually saw?
So, for example, the trade wasexpecting to see some small
adjustments in ending stocks forboth corn and beans, and we got
those. The numbers coming out ofUSDA were very similar to what
the trade was expecting. So thisbusiness of what are we
(08:39):
comparing it to becomes anissue. What I always try and
explain to everybody is youknow, what we had last month is
great, but if we're if the tradeis expecting some adjustments,
are those adjustments coming outof USDA similar to what they
were expecting to see? Andthat's usually when we get some
big shifts or adjustments in themarketplace is when expectations
(09:00):
are different from what what theactual numbers are.
And and so when we comparethose, the the USDA numbers came
out very close to what the tradewas expecting to see.
Todd Gleason (09:10):
On that adjustment side, just looking at the corn
balance sheets, there will be anadjustment from old crop to new
crop of about 300,000,000bushels in terms of carryout
from 1.34, which I think mostwould say is a fairly tight
carryout for the old crop to1,660,000,000 for the new crop,
(09:34):
and Mhmm. That's, I guess, a afair carryout. How do you view
that, and the transition fromthis marketing year to the next
marketing year?
Frayne Olson (09:45):
Right. And and then and we're in that stage
stage of our marketing seasonwhere we're we're kinda
balancing two sets of numbers.As you mentioned, we've got the
old crop numbers. We've gotgrain in the bin. We've got
grain in the system from lastyear.
We're trying to say, Well, howthin are those supplies going to
be before we hit the new crop aswe get into the harvest for the
(10:06):
new crop season? The old cropnumbers coming in, so the amount
of inventory we have in the bin,whether it be on farm or in
commercial storage, it is alittle bit on the tight side.
It's not desperately tight.We're not completely freaking
out over this, but it is a biton the tight side. And so if
you're a corn user, a consumerof corn right now, whether it be
(10:26):
livestock or an ethanol plant oran exporter, to get those
supplies to the new crop harvestis gonna be a little bit tricky.
So they're trying to ration theold crop a little bit
differently than the new crop.And and most of the folks,
especially, you know, thefarmer, farm managers around the
area are looking at the new cropnumbers and saying, it looks
(10:47):
like we have a pretty darn goodcorn crop as well as a pretty
good bean crop coming in 2025harvest, but we have to get
there first. And so there's thisdifference in pricing. When do
you need the crop? I mean, whendo you need your bushels as a
consumer?
And then what kind of supplieswe're looking at? And The new
crop supplies, the crop that'sstill growing in the field,
(11:08):
those look to be much stronger.I'm not going to say that
they're burdensome, but we havea much more comfortable supply
chain for the new crop than wedo for the old crop. As I was
looking back through thenumbers, we've seen higher
estimates for carryout at thistime of the year. If you look
back a couple years, we wereexpecting some really, really
(11:30):
big carryout above 2,000,000,000bushels.
And so we're below that rightnow, but it's still much more
comfortable than we saw in thein the old crop numbers, which
are getting a little bit tight,mainly because of some pretty
good export sales.
Todd Gleason (11:43):
So I do wanna talk about the stocks to use ratio.
This is, the number, I think,that comes in giving some kind
of context to to the $4.20 cashprice that USDA is using for the
coming year, which mostproducers are going to say,
well, gosh, how could it be$4.20 if when we had
(12:03):
2,000,000,000 bushels, we were$485? What what what's the
difference here? And stocks touse ratio really just gives you
the supply and the demand bothin in kind of an estimate, and
it's telling us, I guess, thatwe're pretty adequately supplied
at this point looking forward.
Frayne Olson (12:19):
Correct. And so so there's there's two things going
on. So when I when I look backhistorically and do kind of the
analysis, what I find is thatwhen we get really tight,
there's kind of a tipping point.When we get started getting
really tight, we tend to seereally high prices, a lot of
price volatility. And thenthere's there's a a point where
it seems like the the themarkets get much more
(12:41):
comfortable.
We start to see prices fallingand a lot more price stability.
And that tipping point from mymath is about 10% carryover
stocks. So if you have less than10 carryover stocks on corn,
things get a little bit tightand and the market gets a little
bit nervous and it's like, well,we gotta make make sure that we
don't run out. And on the flipside, we get over 10%, the
(13:03):
comfort falls in and and peoplecome become less anxious. The
other thing that's going onthough in in this year that's a
little bit different than we'veseen in the past, we tend to
focus supply demand or yourstocks to use ratio is really
focused on domestic productionand consumption.
For corn, our exports are 15%,18% of our total use. This year,
(13:26):
the Brazilian crop, inparticular the Brazilian
safrinha crop, is lookingexceptionally good. The safrinha
crop, or what they call thewinter crop, accounts for about
75% of the total bushelsproduced in Brazil. So their
safrinha crop is looking verygood, which really also signals
we are going to have a lot ofcompetition in the international
(13:48):
market. So yes, we have most ofour use for corn in The US is
domestic in the livestock sectoror in ethanol, but we do rely on
that export market to be able toget rid of a pretty significant
number of bushels.
It's that export market I thinksome of the traders are looking
at and saying, We have to beprice competitive versus the
Brazilians to be able to makethose sales. And and that's why
(14:11):
I think they're getting a littlebit more anxious and saying, you
know, this is gonna be acompetitive, export season for
the next several months.
Todd Gleason (14:17):
Okay. So now let's talk about prices going forward
looking at the Decembercontract, and we are approaching
that four dollar level, around$4.15, $4.16 for the day. We
have made new contract lows asearly today, in fact. And and
(14:39):
I'm wanting to know, when youlook at this marketplace, is
there room to push this marketto $3.80 through the harvest
season when we're going acrossthe scale, and having to put
bushels in the elevator with anin charge? And how should
producers think about thosebushels?
Frayne Olson (14:59):
So that's a really tricky question, and it And it
really does depend upon theindividual producer. So here's
the setup I'm concerned about.Rephrase the question as to how
could we get to those lowlevels, especially coming into
harvest? What series of eventswould have to occur? Well,
first, we would have to havecontinued favorable weather
(15:22):
conditions through the end ofthe pollination season and
through the end of the growingseason.
So we start getting really goodtest weights, our bushel counts
start to come up, we get big,big, cob length as well as cob
thickness, all of that can startadding to yield. The other thing
I'm a little bit concerned aboutis I do know at least up here in
(15:43):
the North, we still have a lotof old crop corn in the bins.
And what I'm a little concernedis given the fact that we've got
what looks to be a very good newcrop corn coming in, that we're
gonna have to try and cleanthose bins out at least to have
some storage space to be able tokeep the combines running as
well as to try and find enoughroom for everything. So if we
(16:05):
have really good corn crop, wehave a really good soybean crop
on farm storage, I think it'sgonna be at a premium, which
means we might get a a flush ofsales starting in probably late
July or August to try and getthose cleans those bins cleaned
out. That's typicallyhistorically at a time where we
don't have a lot of exportdemand.
(16:25):
It's a little bit harder to tryand find room for everything.
The elevators are also going tobe in the same position where
they are not going to want tohave a lot of old crop corn in
storage coming into harvestbecause they are going to have
as much working room andflexibility as possible. So I
get a little bit concerned thatif we start having this flush of
farm level sales coming intoharvest, that we have to push
(16:49):
those through the system beforewe get into the harvest months
the peak of that harvest rush.So I get a little bit concerned
that not only from a futurestandpoint, but also from a
basis standpoint, we might startseeing some of the basis soften
as we come into harvest,assuming now again that the
(17:10):
weather conditions hold and thatour expectations and our
viewpoints about what yield isgoing to be maintained. I think
the bias right now is for a verygood crop, and it might be
getting larger depending uponwhat happens again in in August
and and with temperatures andrainfall.
Todd Gleason (17:26):
Thank you much. I appreciate it, and we'll talk
with you again in another month.
Frayne Olson (17:29):
Alright. Always a pleasure, Todd.
Todd Gleason (17:31):
That's Frey Olson, agricultural economist from
North Dakota State UniversityExtension. He's based in Fargo.
If you'd like to hear hiscomments again, you can do that
on our website. Look for theclosing market report today at
willag.org willag.0rg or searchit out in your favorite podcast
applications by name, closingmarket report. If you're at our
(17:54):
website, you'll be able tolisten to not only today's
closing market report, but ifyou hit the podcast tab, you'll
see the closing market reportfor the last six days as well.
That's all at willag.0rg. Let'scheck the weather forecast for
(18:16):
the growing regions across theplanet. Mark Russo is here. He's
with Everstream Analytics.Hello, Mark.
Thanks for being with us againon a Monday.
Mark Russo (18:24):
Hi there, Todd. Thanks for having me.
Todd Gleason (18:25):
Let's start with the Corn Belt. Give me the short
term forecast. We have had somerain quite a bit actually in
some places. Who missed it, ifanybody? And what can we expect
over the next, I don't know,three to five days?
Mark Russo (18:40):
Yeah. Certainly, Northern Northern And Central
Illinois, were the winners herewith the rain activity here over
the weekend or late last week aswell. And that was the area that
needed it, considering the drierconditions that were in place
from late June into early July.So that dryness has basically
(19:01):
been solved. And lookingforward, there continue to be
opportunities for rain, not onlyin Illinois, but across much of
the Corn Belt.
Now a few areas of Indiana andOhio could use more rain here
coming up, and they do havechances. So overall here,
rainfall over the next couple ofweeks looks to register not that
far from normal. So for anyremaining dry pockets, they have
(19:26):
really good opportunities toimprove. As for temperatures
coming up, for the nextbasically from now through the
end of the month, we're notseeing any yield threatening
heat. However, we are keeping aneye on some longer range
computer model guidancesuggesting that temperatures
(19:46):
will be quite toasty here andsome heat actually building in
right around August 1.
So something to keep an eye on,but we have a ways to go there.
Todd Gleason (19:56):
What is it that tells you that might be the
case?
Mark Russo (19:59):
A couple of different things, Todd. Number
one, in terms of computer modelguidance, just in the past
twenty four hours, we saw prettystrong signal in all of the
guidance of this kind of broaderor stronger ridging of high
pressure across more of theSouthern Half of The US, but
that does build into theMidwest. And because of the
(20:19):
stronger signal in guidance,that definitely has caught our
attention here. And then alsowe're seeing across the entire
Northern Hemisphere actuallythis strengthening of ridging,
but being more displaced southof what it was back over the
past several weeks or even backin the June as well. And so that
(20:40):
also is something that hassignaled potentially some
changes on the way as weapproach August 1.
Todd Gleason (20:47):
Now because you talked about this being across
the whole of the NorthernHemisphere, does it change
anything in Europe at all?
Mark Russo (20:54):
It is. For the next couple of weeks or the July,
things are looking improved herein terms of rainfall and
reducing the anomaloustemperatures or heat that has
influenced and still influenceEurope this week. But the
overall pattern for the next twoweeks, it's becoming, more
troughy, and that is allowingmore opportunities for rain and
(21:17):
also beginning to cooltemperatures down and helping to
stabilize their summer crops,especially corn, which has been
hit here recently by heat andsome of the lowest soil moisture
for this time of year of thepast twenty years.
Todd Gleason (21:31):
So that covers France. If you're doing corn,
then probably Serbia,Yugoslavia, those places as
well.
Mark Russo (21:37):
Yeah. Both in Western And Eastern Europe,
France, Germany, Poland, downthrough Romania, Bulgaria. The
only area within those countriesname that at least they won't
improve or stabilize as much asthe rest, that would be portions
of Romania down into Bulgaria.
Todd Gleason (21:56):
Thank you much. We'll talk with you again next
week.
Mark Russo (21:58):
You're welcome, Todd.
Todd Gleason (22:00):
That is Mark Russo. He is with Everstream
Analytics, joined us on thisMonday edition of the closing
market report from IllinoisPublic Medium. It is public
radio for the farming world. Youcan find and listen to our
programming online anytime you'dlike. The address is willag.org,
willag.0rg.
Where right now, and don'tforget to do this, you may sign
(22:21):
up for tomorrow's noon to one pm farm doc webinar related to
the one big beautiful bill actand how it will change crop
insurance, SEO, ARC, and PLC.You wanna join us at that time.
Again, that's noon with theFarmDoc team, the agricultural
economist here on the UrbanaChampaign campus of the
(22:43):
University of Illinois. Awebinar for you as it's related
to agriculture and farm policyand changes that came with the
one big beautiful bill act thatwas signed into law by president
Trump. Do that at willag.0rg.
The webinar is tomorrow fromnoon to one p. M. I'm University
(23:05):
of Illinois Extension's ToddGleason. You have a great
afternoon.
Popular Podcasts
24/7 News: The Latest
The latest news in 4 minutes updated every hour, every day.
Crime Junkie
Does hearing about a true crime case always leave you scouring the internet for the truth behind the story? Dive into your next mystery with Crime Junkie. Every Monday, join your host Ashley Flowers as she unravels all the details of infamous and underreported true crime cases with her best friend Brit Prawat. From cold cases to missing persons and heroes in our community who seek justice, Crime Junkie is your destination for theories and stories you won’t hear anywhere else. Whether you're a seasoned true crime enthusiast or new to the genre, you'll find yourself on the edge of your seat awaiting a new episode every Monday. If you can never get enough true crime... Congratulations, you’ve found your people. Follow to join a community of Crime Junkies! Crime Junkie is presented by audiochuck Media Company.
The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show
The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show. Clay Travis and Buck Sexton tackle the biggest stories in news, politics and current events with intelligence and humor. From the border crisis, to the madness of cancel culture and far-left missteps, Clay and Buck guide listeners through the latest headlines and hot topics with fun and entertaining conversations and opinions.