July 15, 2025 • 23 mins
- Naomi Blohm, TotalFarmMarketing.com
- Giovani Preza Fontes, UofIL Extension Agronomist
- Dave Chatterton, SFarmMarketing.com
- Don Day, DayWeather.com
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Todd Gleason (00:00):
From the land to Grant University in Urbana
Champaign, Illinois. This is theclosing market reported as the
July. Happy birthday to mytwins, Megan and Jared. Coming
up, we'll talk about thecommodity market with Naomi
Blohm she's attotalfarmmarketing.com Dave
Chatterton will be here todiscuss the agricultural
energies. We'll explore a recentarticle that Giovanni
(00:23):
Prezipontes penned for the CropCentral website about nitrogen
applications on soybeans, andthen we'll turn our attention to
the weather forecast with DonDay.
He's at Dayweather in Cheyenne,Wyoming, All on this Tuesday
edition of the closing marketreport from Illinois Public
Medium. It is public radio forthe farming world online on
(00:47):
demand at willag.org. ToddGleason services are made
available to WILL by Universityof Illinois Extension. September
corn for the day settled at $4 apenny and a quarter up 1 and a
quarter cents. December at $4.19and 3 quarters, a penny and 3
quarters higher.
And the March corn futures at$4.36 and 3 quarters, the
(01:10):
settlement price there, up 2¢ onthe afternoon. Soybeans in the
August contract at $9.95, down6. 09/09/1987 at a quarter, 6
lower as well. And November at$10 a penny and three quarters,
down 5 and a quarter cents. Beanmeal at $2.65 30, $2.40 lower.
Bean oil at $54.56, up 39¢.Wheat futures, soft red in the
(01:35):
December contract, 3 and a halfcents lower at $5.58 and three
quarters, and the hard redDecember at $5.46, a half cent
higher for the afternoon. Livecattle futures in Chicago at
$2.50 higher, $219.27 and a halfcents for a 100 pounds. Feeder
cattle at $322.27 and a halfcents, up $2.80, and lean hogs
(01:59):
at $87.47 and a half cents, 27¢higher for the day, rather 20¢
higher for the day. Crude oil at$65.39 a barrel, that's down
42¢.
Diesel fuel or heating oil, apenny and a tenth higher, $2.37
and 8 tenths, and gasoline onthe RBOB at $2.12 and 3 tenths
of a cent just about unchangedfor the afternoon. The Dow Jones
(02:22):
Industrial Average now stands at44,374. That's down 322 points.
And the S and P 500 is toolower. It's at 6,309 points for
the day.
We're now joined by Naomi Bloem.She's at totalfarmmarketing.com
out of Windsor, rather WestBend, Wisconsin. Naomi, thank
(02:44):
you so very much for taking sometime with us this afternoon. I
really do appreciate that. Canyou begin by discussing what you
think the most important partsof the trade are over the last
week to you and of today?
Naomi Blohm (03:01):
Well, actually, keeping an eye, of course, on
any potential for trade andtariff news coming up or any new
trade deals, but I think thething that a lot of my clients
today were talking about wasthis potential storm system
coming through South Dakota,Northeast Nebraska, all of Iowa,
Southern Minnesota over the nextforty eight hours has the
(03:23):
potential to just get hammeredwith some pretty severe weather
between high winds, potentialfor rain, of course, and hail.
So that's what we're gonna bewatching tonight, and I kind of
wonder if that was some of thereason that corn futures prices
traded a little higher today,maybe some of those short
positions going to thesidelines, just in case this
(03:44):
turns into a mega storm. But ofcourse, if it turns out to just
be nice rain, the gains thatwe've had the last couple days
might diminish and we could goback into sell mode as the rest
of the week progresses. So we'llwant to keep an eye on that
storm.
Todd Gleason (03:59):
Okay, so on that sell mode side, I know you have
probably been talking to yourcolleagues and looking at the
charts. What do they tell youabout the marketplace from this
point forward, and potentialpushes lower and or higher?
Naomi Blohm (04:16):
Yeah. So yesterday, we had a nice bullish, reversal
on corn. So that may be saidthat the market was ready to
kinda take a break from thatnegative momentum. So we know
that there's this potential tobe a bigger crop than the USDA
181 yield, but it's gonna take afew weeks to know potentially
how big the crop actually is orisn't. So, I feel like because
(04:38):
we had this little bullish hookreversal yesterday, maybe for
the rest of this week, cornprices, soybean prices trade in
a little bit more of a sidewaysfashion until we get a better
idea on more weather informationand potentially some more trade
and tariff news as well.
So, the chart's not lookingquite as bad in the short term
(05:00):
as what they had been, but thebig picture still looks like the
market is in a defensive mode onthe expectations of large crop
overall.
Todd Gleason (05:08):
So I have heard recently that there is some
worry that there remains enoughgrain on the farm in storage
that it will have an impactthrough the end of the month of
July and into early August, andcomplicate issues related to
(05:29):
basis not rebounding as corn iscoming out of South America as
well. Are you fearful thatbasis, even if the futures
markets were able to rally some,might widen?
Naomi Blohm (05:42):
Well, it could widen or just in general stay
wide because of everything yousaid. Plus, if the crop, the
newly coming crop coming in isexpected to be large, it's a way
that the end users are able tokeep their their handle and and
keep prices at bay by keepingthat basis wide on expectations
that supplies will be goodenough for the coming months. I
(06:04):
know that last year the marketfound that it's low at the
August and then had a slow grindhigher, but what if this year
maybe we find the low at theAugust or early September, but
rather than a slow grind higher,what if we just see a slow grind
sideways until we get the cropfully harvested, until we get
the potential piles of corncoming into the elevators moved.
(06:29):
So that could be somethingdifferent than last year to
definitely be aware of and arather reason why prices might
struggle to rally in the shortterm. So, in general, I wish I
had better news to provide, butright now, we're still just
operating under this threat of abig supply coming in, and that's
(06:50):
gonna weigh on prices bothprobably from the future side,
the cash side, the basis side.
Todd Gleason (06:55):
Okay. So this is a question that you're going to
get from a lot of producers, Ithink. I'll just ask it for
myself. I made one sale, 5% ofthe crop, new crop corn, $4 and
22, which I hoped was my lowestsale for the year. Looking at a
$3.75, $3.80 cash bid at themoment, and you're telling me
and I'm thinking thismarketplace might trade lower
(07:18):
into the fall.
How do I handle that situation?
Naomi Blohm (07:22):
Yeah, it's definitely a challenge. So it's
something where we've beentalking with clients, and some
are looking at some optionstrategies where they're
defending in case the marketprices go lower using December
corn puts or even some Marchstrategies in case it is a long,
drawn out harvest low that laststhroughout the autumn timeframe.
(07:45):
So, that's one way to still tryto protect value that's there. I
would say, though, if you're atthe point where you're looking
to make a cash sale just becausepotentially you need cash income
flow, when we see signs of abottom later on, we'll look to
do some re ownership strategies.Another idea would be to, and
(08:07):
this one is not for everybody,this has some margin risk to it,
selling calls above the market,like out to the March contract,
and just challenge the market torally that way.
It would help pay for storagecosts, future storage costs, but
again, it's marginal, so youreally want to understand the
risks associated with that. But,yeah, this marketplace is
(08:28):
shaping up to be different thanlast year. It'll it'll take a
major weather event, or we wouldneed even better demand news
than what we already have in theform of a trade deal to, you
know, just be able to spur thismarket higher.
Todd Gleason (08:40):
Anything we should take up on the soy complex?
Naomi Blohm (08:43):
Well, looking at soybeans, we're gonna continue
to be weather watching. TheNovember contract is holding
that $10 price point quite wellfor now, and I think that that
likely continues. So, we have toof course know what the
weather's going to be comeAugust. The soybean crush report
came out today a little bithigher than the average trade
(09:05):
expectations, so that was reallyimpressive and helps to just
keep the story alive about thedemand for the biofuels and for
the crush, but for the soybeans,it's all about weather, and of
course, we still are waiting tofind out what is gonna be
happening with China and anyexports that they would be
purchasing from us, so we're ina wait and see mentality for
(09:27):
that as well.
Todd Gleason (09:28):
Thank you much, Naomi.
Naomi Blohm (09:30):
Okay, thank you.
Todd Gleason (09:31):
Naomi Bloom is with Total Farm Marketing and
totalfarmmarketing.com. She's inWest Bend, Wisconsin. You're
listening to the closing marketreport from Illinois Public
Media. On this Tuesdayafternoon, over the noon hour, I
help to host Farm Doc webinarrelated to the changes included
in the One Big Beautiful BillAct. You want to check that out.
(09:54):
You can do that anytime you'dlike, probably on the YouTube
website, maybe in a couple ofhours but it'll be up soon.
These will have an impact onthis year and of course coming
years marketing opportunitiesand what the crop insurance
changes might be as well as thecommodity program changes for
(10:15):
things like ARC and PLC. You canfind those at youtube.com/the at
signpharmdoc. That'syoutube.com/pharmdoc. That's the
PharmDoc daily YouTube website,and you'll be able to look for
the latest webinar there on theone big beautiful bill act and
(10:38):
its impact on crop insurance andcommodity programs.
Let's turn our attention now tothe agricultural energies. Dave
Chatterton is here fromStrategic Farm Marketing. Hello,
Dave. Thanks for being with usagain.
Dave Chatterton (10:55):
Yeah, Todd. Thanks for having me. It's
interesting times as alwayshere.
Todd Gleason (10:59):
It it is. However, I don't wanna start with the
agricultural energies. You'rebusy today helping producers
make sure that acreage isreported. Deadlines are upon us?
Dave Chatterton (11:09):
Yeah, Todd. We're at that annual acreage
reporting deadline. It's July15. So if you haven't, you know,
certified with the FSA or talkedto your crop insurance agent,
you better you better make thatcall up pretty quickly. It's
interesting that last week onFriday afternoon late after the
close, we saw the FSA go aheadand give themselves an extension
for thirty days for getting alltheir information in the RMA
system but they did not extendthe crop insurance deadline.
(11:32):
So it's a little bit of aquandary. It's very hard to
match up and accurately reportacres without a completed five
seventy eight. So a little bitof piecing together going here
and, you know, just one of thethings that we deal with here
along the way.
Todd Gleason (11:45):
Yeah. So make sure you get hold of FSA by the end
of the day today. Now turn yourattention to the agricultural
energies. What have you beenwatching over the last month?
Dave Chatterton (11:54):
Yeah, Todd. I mean, it's been a little bit of
a roller coaster here. And, ofcourse, it's really primarily
been about policy. And over thelast month, you know, if you go
back all the way really to May,that's when the market bottomed.
But we've been on a steadyuptrend almost since that point.
And mixed in with that, we hadthe kind of culmination or the
peak of the Israeli Iranconflict. Or let's say, I hope
it was the peak of thatconflict. And we had the big
(12:14):
spike and then and they go downover the weekend here. We've got
Trump being the, you know, thetariff drum again and talking
about things like Mexico andCanada and 30% tariffs. But then
on Monday announcing that heintended to place a 100% tariff
on Russian goods and reciprocaltariffs for people who are
buying Russian oil of up to 500%starting in fifty days.
(12:35):
So the market actually reacted alittle bit soft to that. It was
expecting that you know Trumphad foretold this agreement or
this you know this announcementfor a while. The fifty day
deadline or the fifty dayextension here and giving them
fifty days was not what themarket was expecting. They were
expecting more of an immediateconcern. So you know markets
have kind of consolidated thelast few days here but we remain
(12:58):
really towards the high end ofof the range here.
Todd Gleason (13:03):
And if
Dave Chatterton (13:03):
you look at let's say diesel fuel for an
example, 188 for NYMEX futuresin May, got to $2.65 during that
peak of the conflict that wejust spoke of. We're currently
at about $2.42. So we've givenup a little bit from the highest
tide but generally the OPEC cutsthat have come into the
marketplace or been announcedhave not been a big bearish
element of the market so far.We're still inverted in terms of
(13:24):
price. So crude oil, see thefront month above the deferred.
Same thing for gasoline anddiesel fuel indicates the demand
in the market has still beenpretty good.
Todd Gleason (13:32):
Yeah. At fifty days, we'll be in the midst of
harvest in the fall. If nothinghas happened, that would mean
that, nations like Brazil,China, India, have been
purchasing Russian oil would besubject to a 500% tariff? That
probably would leave the oil offthe market, I would take it, if
(13:53):
that's the case. And does thatmean that does that mean the
producers would need to thinkmore thoroughly about purchasing
their diesel fuel needs for thefall?
Dave Chatterton (14:05):
Well, I think the answer is yes. I think
nailing down a specific ofwhat's going to happen after
that fifty days is, you know,the market takes this with a big
grain of salt, Todd, and thefact that's an eternity in terms
of negotiating with thesesanctions and a lot can change
and probably will change.Enforcing a 500% tariff on
someone who on another countrythat we believe is buying
(14:26):
Russian oil is a really tough toimplement I think over time. So
there's a good degree of doubtabout how that's gone. Russia
historically has been very goodat kind of alluding these US
trade barriers and we'll have tosee how that shapes up.
But I think what you do want tolook at here in terms of diesel
(14:46):
fuel is that inventories rightnow are the lowest of the last
five years. We're 23% below thefive year average, Todd, and,
you know, we're getting thetropics heating up here. We've
got a storm moving into The Gulfhere midweek next week. It
doesn't look horrible at themoment, but you know how quickly
those things can change. So anykind of supply disruption here
that comes out of left field isreally going to be kind of an
(15:08):
igniter to a higher a leg higherin prices.
So I think you certainly want tobe looking at what can I
contract fuel for, how full aremy tanks, and and and having a
little bit under your belt, soto speak?
Todd Gleason (15:17):
Hey. Thanks much. We'll talk with you again in
another month.
Dave Chatterton (15:21):
Thank you, Todd.
Todd Gleason (15:22):
That's Dave Chatterton. He is with Strategic
Farm Marketing. There's a newarticle about the application of
(15:45):
nitrogen to soybeans on the CropCentral website authored by
Giovanni Prezafontes, JohnJones, and Emerson Nafziger,
each of them an agronomist hereon the Urbana Champaign campus
of the University of Illinois.We'll start with the conclusion
is that on almost all soils inthe state of Illinois, adding
(16:05):
nitrogen to a soybean field toincrease yields generally
doesn't statistically andcertainly isn't economically
viable. There are some placeswe'll explore that in the
future.
However, today I wanted to talkto Giovanni about high yielding
soybeans and nitrogen and whatthey found in this particular
(16:27):
study.
Giovani Preza Fontes (16:27):
I think there is a common perception
that, those high yieldingsoybeans fields will likely to
respond more to supplementalnitrogen, and that was not the
case, at least under theconditions of our study. We
didn't our data does not supportthat high yielding soybeans will
respond more to nitrogenfertilizer. There is a figure in
(16:49):
in the article that shows therelationship between yield
response to fertilizer nitrogenand the yield of the untreated
control. And what we found wasthat a negative relationship
between yield responses and theyield level of of the untreated
control, meaning that as theyield of the untreated control
(17:11):
increased, we saw an yieldresponses to nitrogen tended to
decrease.
Todd Gleason (17:18):
Do you know why?
Giovani Preza Fontes (17:19):
Yeah. We think that, you know, like, if
you think about the soil the oursoils, our molysoles in Central
And Northern Illinois, I mean,this those are highly
productive. Right? So if youthink about soybean, right, so
where they they get theirnitrogen from, it it's we think
that about 50 to 60% comes frombiological nitrogen fixation.
(17:41):
Right?
That's the symbioticrelationship that they have with
the Bradyrhizobium, and 40 to50% comes from the soil. So if
you think about those highproductive soils, if you think
about mineralization in nitrogensupply from the soil, conditions
that favor high yields, I willalso favor organic matter
(18:04):
mineralization. So what thatmeans is that, you know, if you
if the weather is good and andyou're having you're setting up
a you a good yield potential.Right? So that also means that,
you know, there's a lot ofnitrogen being mineralized from
the organic matter, and thosenitrogen are gonna be available
(18:24):
for the soybean to take up.
So even though in high yieldingsand and we saw that our Urbana
Fields and Nama Field, we hadyears that we had 80 to 90
bushel soybean per acre. So,yes, they do require more
nitrogen, but, again, there's alot of nitrogen being
mineralized from the organicmatter, that is gonna, supply
(18:47):
most of that nitrogenrequirement in high yielding
fumes.
Todd Gleason (18:51):
That's Giovanni Prezefontes. You can see the
article that he has writtenalong with John Jones and
Emerson Nafziger on our website.The title of that article is
Nitrogen Fertilizer and SoybeanYield What We've Learned from
Multi Year Trials in Illinois.The conclusion reinforces that
most soybean fields in Illinoisare unlikely to benefit
(19:13):
agronomically and even lesslikely to benefit economically
from nitrogen fertilizerapplications. We'll explore this
topic more in the future here onthe closing market report.
Theme music for the closingmarket report is written,
performed, produced in courtesyof Logan County, Illinois farmer
(19:34):
Tim Gleason. Find us online atwillag.org to listen to anytime
you'd like there. You'll alsofind agricultural programming
articles from the cropscientist, the ag economist, and
the animal scientist right hereon the Urbana Champaign campus
of the University of Illinois.Let's turn our attention now to
(19:57):
the weather forecast with DonDay. He's with Day Weather in
Cheyenne, Wyoming.
Don, looks like we're going toturn things, well, a lot hotter,
and they'll be humid as well.Can you tell me about the
changes that are coming acrossThe United States?
Don Day (20:12):
Yeah. There's there's actually quite a bit going on.
First of all, we're we're gonnasee likely a tropical depression
might become a tropical storm inThe Gulf called Dexter. We have
an unusually strong cold frontcoming out of Alberta and
Saskatchewan into the NorthernPlains. Parts of the Dakotas
won't even get out of thesixties today or tomorrow.
(20:36):
And then we've got some heatthat's gonna be building across
the Southern Plains andexpanding into, especially, the
central, eastern, and southernareas of the Corn Belt as we get
to the end of this week and thisweekend.
Todd Gleason (20:49):
Tell me about that heat and the humidity both,
please.
Don Day (20:52):
Well, we're gonna have a pipeline of air that's gonna
be coming right out of thecoastal Texas Louisiana Gulf
areas and then that's going toget directed to the North
Northeast. So the transport ofthe air mass is coming in. The
source region is coming justfrom very warm humid areas and
(21:13):
it's a pattern that's going toget a little bit on the stagnant
side of things especially whenwe start looking after the
twentieth and into the last tendays of July. So there's going
to be a lot of heat, lot ofhumidity in there and there's
gonna be occasionally somethunderstorm activity as well.
Todd Gleason (21:29):
What do you think it will mean for temperatures?
As we get through this lastcouple of weeks of July, we're
in the middle of pollination,things above 93 degrees tend to
be a problem.
Don Day (21:41):
Well, we are going to see temperatures that are gonna
get into that territory. Now onething that may throttle back
those temperatures a little bitwill be the chance for clouds
and shower and thunderstormactivity that could cause, you
know, temperatures to maybe notbe as persistently hot. Thing is
is, while we may not spend toomuch time in the mid to upper
(22:02):
nineties, certainly, you averagethe nighttime and daytime
temperatures, they're gonna bevery warm through that period.
Todd Gleason (22:08):
That is typical of recent years where the overnight
lows are higher and the highsduring the day are not in that
98, 99, 102 degrees, but lowerlevels still the average comes
out to be a higher averagethroughout the period.
Don Day (22:25):
Yeah. Now one thing that and and we've talked about
this in earlier interviews isthat while we do see the heat
coming in, one thing that'shappened this summer is when we
do get heat domes, they don'ttend to last as long as
forecast, and I think that'll bethe case with this as well.
Todd Gleason (22:45):
Thank you much, Don.
Don Day (22:46):
Thank you.
Todd Gleason (22:47):
Dundee is with Dayweather. He's in Cheyenne,
Wyoming. Joined us on thisTuesday edition of the closing
market report that came to youfrom Illinois, a public medium.
It is public radio for thefarming world online on demand
anytime you'd like to listen tous at willag.org, willag.0rg.
I'm University of IllinoisExtension's Todd Gleason.
(23:49):
Doctor. JACKSON:
From the land to Grant University in Urbana
Champaign, Illinois. This is theclosing market reported as the
July. Happy birthday to mytwins, Megan and Jared. Coming
up, we'll talk about thecommodity market with Naomi
Blohm she's attotalfarmmarketing.com Dave
Chatterton will be here todiscuss the agricultural
energies. We'll explore a recentarticle that Giovanni
(00:23):
Prezipontes penned for the CropCentral website about nitrogen
applications on soybeans, andthen we'll turn our attention to
the weather forecast with DonDay.
He's at Dayweather in Cheyenne,Wyoming, All on this Tuesday
edition of the closing marketreport from Illinois Public
Medium. It is public radio forthe farming world online on
(00:47):
demand at willag.org. ToddGleason services are made
available to WILL by Universityof Illinois Extension. September
corn for the day settled at $4 apenny and a quarter up 1 and a
quarter cents. December at $4.19and 3 quarters, a penny and 3
quarters higher.
And the March corn futures at$4.36 and 3 quarters, the
(01:10):
settlement price there, up 2¢ onthe afternoon. Soybeans in the
August contract at $9.95, down6. 09/09/1987 at a quarter, 6
lower as well. And November at$10 a penny and three quarters,
down 5 and a quarter cents. Beanmeal at $2.65 30, $2.40 lower.
Bean oil at $54.56, up 39¢.Wheat futures, soft red in the
(01:35):
December contract, 3 and a halfcents lower at $5.58 and three
quarters, and the hard redDecember at $5.46, a half cent
higher for the afternoon. Livecattle futures in Chicago at
$2.50 higher, $219.27 and a halfcents for a 100 pounds. Feeder
cattle at $322.27 and a halfcents, up $2.80, and lean hogs
(01:59):
at $87.47 and a half cents, 27¢higher for the day, rather 20¢
higher for the day. Crude oil at$65.39 a barrel, that's down
42¢.
Diesel fuel or heating oil, apenny and a tenth higher, $2.37
and 8 tenths, and gasoline onthe RBOB at $2.12 and 3 tenths
of a cent just about unchangedfor the afternoon. The Dow Jones
(02:22):
Industrial Average now stands at44,374. That's down 322 points.
And the S and P 500 is toolower. It's at 6,309 points for
the day.
We're now joined by Naomi Bloem.She's at totalfarmmarketing.com
out of Windsor, rather WestBend, Wisconsin. Naomi, thank
(02:44):
you so very much for taking sometime with us this afternoon. I
really do appreciate that. Canyou begin by discussing what you
think the most important partsof the trade are over the last
week to you and of today?
Naomi Blohm (03:01):
Well, actually, keeping an eye, of course, on
any potential for trade andtariff news coming up or any new
trade deals, but I think thething that a lot of my clients
today were talking about wasthis potential storm system
coming through South Dakota,Northeast Nebraska, all of Iowa,
Southern Minnesota over the nextforty eight hours has the
(03:23):
potential to just get hammeredwith some pretty severe weather
between high winds, potentialfor rain, of course, and hail.
So that's what we're gonna bewatching tonight, and I kind of
wonder if that was some of thereason that corn futures prices
traded a little higher today,maybe some of those short
positions going to thesidelines, just in case this
(03:44):
turns into a mega storm. But ofcourse, if it turns out to just
be nice rain, the gains thatwe've had the last couple days
might diminish and we could goback into sell mode as the rest
of the week progresses. So we'llwant to keep an eye on that
storm.
Todd Gleason (03:59):
Okay, so on that sell mode side, I know you have
probably been talking to yourcolleagues and looking at the
charts. What do they tell youabout the marketplace from this
point forward, and potentialpushes lower and or higher?
Naomi Blohm (04:16):
Yeah. So yesterday, we had a nice bullish, reversal
on corn. So that may be saidthat the market was ready to
kinda take a break from thatnegative momentum. So we know
that there's this potential tobe a bigger crop than the USDA
181 yield, but it's gonna take afew weeks to know potentially
how big the crop actually is orisn't. So, I feel like because
(04:38):
we had this little bullish hookreversal yesterday, maybe for
the rest of this week, cornprices, soybean prices trade in
a little bit more of a sidewaysfashion until we get a better
idea on more weather informationand potentially some more trade
and tariff news as well.
So, the chart's not lookingquite as bad in the short term
(05:00):
as what they had been, but thebig picture still looks like the
market is in a defensive mode onthe expectations of large crop
overall.
Todd Gleason (05:08):
So I have heard recently that there is some
worry that there remains enoughgrain on the farm in storage
that it will have an impactthrough the end of the month of
July and into early August, andcomplicate issues related to
(05:29):
basis not rebounding as corn iscoming out of South America as
well. Are you fearful thatbasis, even if the futures
markets were able to rally some,might widen?
Naomi Blohm (05:42):
Well, it could widen or just in general stay
wide because of everything yousaid. Plus, if the crop, the
newly coming crop coming in isexpected to be large, it's a way
that the end users are able tokeep their their handle and and
keep prices at bay by keepingthat basis wide on expectations
that supplies will be goodenough for the coming months. I
(06:04):
know that last year the marketfound that it's low at the
August and then had a slow grindhigher, but what if this year
maybe we find the low at theAugust or early September, but
rather than a slow grind higher,what if we just see a slow grind
sideways until we get the cropfully harvested, until we get
the potential piles of corncoming into the elevators moved.
(06:29):
So that could be somethingdifferent than last year to
definitely be aware of and arather reason why prices might
struggle to rally in the shortterm. So, in general, I wish I
had better news to provide, butright now, we're still just
operating under this threat of abig supply coming in, and that's
(06:50):
gonna weigh on prices bothprobably from the future side,
the cash side, the basis side.
Todd Gleason (06:55):
Okay. So this is a question that you're going to
get from a lot of producers, Ithink. I'll just ask it for
myself. I made one sale, 5% ofthe crop, new crop corn, $4 and
22, which I hoped was my lowestsale for the year. Looking at a
$3.75, $3.80 cash bid at themoment, and you're telling me
and I'm thinking thismarketplace might trade lower
(07:18):
into the fall.
How do I handle that situation?
Naomi Blohm (07:22):
Yeah, it's definitely a challenge. So it's
something where we've beentalking with clients, and some
are looking at some optionstrategies where they're
defending in case the marketprices go lower using December
corn puts or even some Marchstrategies in case it is a long,
drawn out harvest low that laststhroughout the autumn timeframe.
(07:45):
So, that's one way to still tryto protect value that's there. I
would say, though, if you're atthe point where you're looking
to make a cash sale just becausepotentially you need cash income
flow, when we see signs of abottom later on, we'll look to
do some re ownership strategies.Another idea would be to, and
(08:07):
this one is not for everybody,this has some margin risk to it,
selling calls above the market,like out to the March contract,
and just challenge the market torally that way.
It would help pay for storagecosts, future storage costs, but
again, it's marginal, so youreally want to understand the
risks associated with that. But,yeah, this marketplace is
(08:28):
shaping up to be different thanlast year. It'll it'll take a
major weather event, or we wouldneed even better demand news
than what we already have in theform of a trade deal to, you
know, just be able to spur thismarket higher.
Todd Gleason (08:40):
Anything we should take up on the soy complex?
Naomi Blohm (08:43):
Well, looking at soybeans, we're gonna continue
to be weather watching. TheNovember contract is holding
that $10 price point quite wellfor now, and I think that that
likely continues. So, we have toof course know what the
weather's going to be comeAugust. The soybean crush report
came out today a little bithigher than the average trade
(09:05):
expectations, so that was reallyimpressive and helps to just
keep the story alive about thedemand for the biofuels and for
the crush, but for the soybeans,it's all about weather, and of
course, we still are waiting tofind out what is gonna be
happening with China and anyexports that they would be
purchasing from us, so we're ina wait and see mentality for
(09:27):
that as well.
Todd Gleason (09:28):
Thank you much, Naomi.
Naomi Blohm (09:30):
Okay, thank you.
Todd Gleason (09:31):
Naomi Bloom is with Total Farm Marketing and
totalfarmmarketing.com. She's inWest Bend, Wisconsin. You're
listening to the closing marketreport from Illinois Public
Media. On this Tuesdayafternoon, over the noon hour, I
help to host Farm Doc webinarrelated to the changes included
in the One Big Beautiful BillAct. You want to check that out.
(09:54):
You can do that anytime you'dlike, probably on the YouTube
website, maybe in a couple ofhours but it'll be up soon.
These will have an impact onthis year and of course coming
years marketing opportunitiesand what the crop insurance
changes might be as well as thecommodity program changes for
(10:15):
things like ARC and PLC. You canfind those at youtube.com/the at
signpharmdoc. That'syoutube.com/pharmdoc. That's the
PharmDoc daily YouTube website,and you'll be able to look for
the latest webinar there on theone big beautiful bill act and
(10:38):
its impact on crop insurance andcommodity programs.
Let's turn our attention now tothe agricultural energies. Dave
Chatterton is here fromStrategic Farm Marketing. Hello,
Dave. Thanks for being with usagain.
Dave Chatterton (10:55):
Yeah, Todd. Thanks for having me. It's
interesting times as alwayshere.
Todd Gleason (10:59):
It it is. However, I don't wanna start with the
agricultural energies. You'rebusy today helping producers
make sure that acreage isreported. Deadlines are upon us?
Dave Chatterton (11:09):
Yeah, Todd. We're at that annual acreage
reporting deadline. It's July15. So if you haven't, you know,
certified with the FSA or talkedto your crop insurance agent,
you better you better make thatcall up pretty quickly. It's
interesting that last week onFriday afternoon late after the
close, we saw the FSA go aheadand give themselves an extension
for thirty days for getting alltheir information in the RMA
system but they did not extendthe crop insurance deadline.
(11:32):
So it's a little bit of aquandary. It's very hard to
match up and accurately reportacres without a completed five
seventy eight. So a little bitof piecing together going here
and, you know, just one of thethings that we deal with here
along the way.
Todd Gleason (11:45):
Yeah. So make sure you get hold of FSA by the end
of the day today. Now turn yourattention to the agricultural
energies. What have you beenwatching over the last month?
Dave Chatterton (11:54):
Yeah, Todd. I mean, it's been a little bit of
a roller coaster here. And, ofcourse, it's really primarily
been about policy. And over thelast month, you know, if you go
back all the way really to May,that's when the market bottomed.
But we've been on a steadyuptrend almost since that point.
And mixed in with that, we hadthe kind of culmination or the
peak of the Israeli Iranconflict. Or let's say, I hope
it was the peak of thatconflict. And we had the big
(12:14):
spike and then and they go downover the weekend here. We've got
Trump being the, you know, thetariff drum again and talking
about things like Mexico andCanada and 30% tariffs. But then
on Monday announcing that heintended to place a 100% tariff
on Russian goods and reciprocaltariffs for people who are
buying Russian oil of up to 500%starting in fifty days.
(12:35):
So the market actually reacted alittle bit soft to that. It was
expecting that you know Trumphad foretold this agreement or
this you know this announcementfor a while. The fifty day
deadline or the fifty dayextension here and giving them
fifty days was not what themarket was expecting. They were
expecting more of an immediateconcern. So you know markets
have kind of consolidated thelast few days here but we remain
(12:58):
really towards the high end ofof the range here.
Todd Gleason (13:03):
And if
Dave Chatterton (13:03):
you look at let's say diesel fuel for an
example, 188 for NYMEX futuresin May, got to $2.65 during that
peak of the conflict that wejust spoke of. We're currently
at about $2.42. So we've givenup a little bit from the highest
tide but generally the OPEC cutsthat have come into the
marketplace or been announcedhave not been a big bearish
element of the market so far.We're still inverted in terms of
(13:24):
price. So crude oil, see thefront month above the deferred.
Same thing for gasoline anddiesel fuel indicates the demand
in the market has still beenpretty good.
Todd Gleason (13:32):
Yeah. At fifty days, we'll be in the midst of
harvest in the fall. If nothinghas happened, that would mean
that, nations like Brazil,China, India, have been
purchasing Russian oil would besubject to a 500% tariff? That
probably would leave the oil offthe market, I would take it, if
(13:53):
that's the case. And does thatmean that does that mean the
producers would need to thinkmore thoroughly about purchasing
their diesel fuel needs for thefall?
Dave Chatterton (14:05):
Well, I think the answer is yes. I think
nailing down a specific ofwhat's going to happen after
that fifty days is, you know,the market takes this with a big
grain of salt, Todd, and thefact that's an eternity in terms
of negotiating with thesesanctions and a lot can change
and probably will change.Enforcing a 500% tariff on
someone who on another countrythat we believe is buying
(14:26):
Russian oil is a really tough toimplement I think over time. So
there's a good degree of doubtabout how that's gone. Russia
historically has been very goodat kind of alluding these US
trade barriers and we'll have tosee how that shapes up.
But I think what you do want tolook at here in terms of diesel
(14:46):
fuel is that inventories rightnow are the lowest of the last
five years. We're 23% below thefive year average, Todd, and,
you know, we're getting thetropics heating up here. We've
got a storm moving into The Gulfhere midweek next week. It
doesn't look horrible at themoment, but you know how quickly
those things can change. So anykind of supply disruption here
that comes out of left field isreally going to be kind of an
(15:08):
igniter to a higher a leg higherin prices.
So I think you certainly want tobe looking at what can I
contract fuel for, how full aremy tanks, and and and having a
little bit under your belt, soto speak?
Todd Gleason (15:17):
Hey. Thanks much. We'll talk with you again in
another month.
Dave Chatterton (15:21):
Thank you, Todd.
Todd Gleason (15:22):
That's Dave Chatterton. He is with Strategic
Farm Marketing. There's a newarticle about the application of
(15:45):
nitrogen to soybeans on the CropCentral website authored by
Giovanni Prezafontes, JohnJones, and Emerson Nafziger,
each of them an agronomist hereon the Urbana Champaign campus
of the University of Illinois.We'll start with the conclusion
is that on almost all soils inthe state of Illinois, adding
(16:05):
nitrogen to a soybean field toincrease yields generally
doesn't statistically andcertainly isn't economically
viable. There are some placeswe'll explore that in the
future.
However, today I wanted to talkto Giovanni about high yielding
soybeans and nitrogen and whatthey found in this particular
(16:27):
study.
Giovani Preza Fontes (16:27):
I think there is a common perception
that, those high yieldingsoybeans fields will likely to
respond more to supplementalnitrogen, and that was not the
case, at least under theconditions of our study. We
didn't our data does not supportthat high yielding soybeans will
respond more to nitrogenfertilizer. There is a figure in
(16:49):
in the article that shows therelationship between yield
response to fertilizer nitrogenand the yield of the untreated
control. And what we found wasthat a negative relationship
between yield responses and theyield level of of the untreated
control, meaning that as theyield of the untreated control
(17:11):
increased, we saw an yieldresponses to nitrogen tended to
decrease.
Todd Gleason (17:18):
Do you know why?
Giovani Preza Fontes (17:19):
Yeah. We think that, you know, like, if
you think about the soil the oursoils, our molysoles in Central
And Northern Illinois, I mean,this those are highly
productive. Right? So if youthink about soybean, right, so
where they they get theirnitrogen from, it it's we think
that about 50 to 60% comes frombiological nitrogen fixation.
(17:41):
Right?
That's the symbioticrelationship that they have with
the Bradyrhizobium, and 40 to50% comes from the soil. So if
you think about those highproductive soils, if you think
about mineralization in nitrogensupply from the soil, conditions
that favor high yields, I willalso favor organic matter
(18:04):
mineralization. So what thatmeans is that, you know, if you
if the weather is good and andyou're having you're setting up
a you a good yield potential.Right? So that also means that,
you know, there's a lot ofnitrogen being mineralized from
the organic matter, and thosenitrogen are gonna be available
(18:24):
for the soybean to take up.
So even though in high yieldingsand and we saw that our Urbana
Fields and Nama Field, we hadyears that we had 80 to 90
bushel soybean per acre. So,yes, they do require more
nitrogen, but, again, there's alot of nitrogen being
mineralized from the organicmatter, that is gonna, supply
(18:47):
most of that nitrogenrequirement in high yielding
fumes.
Todd Gleason (18:51):
That's Giovanni Prezefontes. You can see the
article that he has writtenalong with John Jones and
Emerson Nafziger on our website.The title of that article is
Nitrogen Fertilizer and SoybeanYield What We've Learned from
Multi Year Trials in Illinois.The conclusion reinforces that
most soybean fields in Illinoisare unlikely to benefit
(19:13):
agronomically and even lesslikely to benefit economically
from nitrogen fertilizerapplications. We'll explore this
topic more in the future here onthe closing market report.
Theme music for the closingmarket report is written,
performed, produced in courtesyof Logan County, Illinois farmer
(19:34):
Tim Gleason. Find us online atwillag.org to listen to anytime
you'd like there. You'll alsofind agricultural programming
articles from the cropscientist, the ag economist, and
the animal scientist right hereon the Urbana Champaign campus
of the University of Illinois.Let's turn our attention now to
(19:57):
the weather forecast with DonDay. He's with Day Weather in
Cheyenne, Wyoming.
Don, looks like we're going toturn things, well, a lot hotter,
and they'll be humid as well.Can you tell me about the
changes that are coming acrossThe United States?
Don Day (20:12):
Yeah. There's there's actually quite a bit going on.
First of all, we're we're gonnasee likely a tropical depression
might become a tropical storm inThe Gulf called Dexter. We have
an unusually strong cold frontcoming out of Alberta and
Saskatchewan into the NorthernPlains. Parts of the Dakotas
won't even get out of thesixties today or tomorrow.
(20:36):
And then we've got some heatthat's gonna be building across
the Southern Plains andexpanding into, especially, the
central, eastern, and southernareas of the Corn Belt as we get
to the end of this week and thisweekend.
Todd Gleason (20:49):
Tell me about that heat and the humidity both,
please.
Don Day (20:52):
Well, we're gonna have a pipeline of air that's gonna
be coming right out of thecoastal Texas Louisiana Gulf
areas and then that's going toget directed to the North
Northeast. So the transport ofthe air mass is coming in. The
source region is coming justfrom very warm humid areas and
(21:13):
it's a pattern that's going toget a little bit on the stagnant
side of things especially whenwe start looking after the
twentieth and into the last tendays of July. So there's going
to be a lot of heat, lot ofhumidity in there and there's
gonna be occasionally somethunderstorm activity as well.
Todd Gleason (21:29):
What do you think it will mean for temperatures?
As we get through this lastcouple of weeks of July, we're
in the middle of pollination,things above 93 degrees tend to
be a problem.
Don Day (21:41):
Well, we are going to see temperatures that are gonna
get into that territory. Now onething that may throttle back
those temperatures a little bitwill be the chance for clouds
and shower and thunderstormactivity that could cause, you
know, temperatures to maybe notbe as persistently hot. Thing is
is, while we may not spend toomuch time in the mid to upper
(22:02):
nineties, certainly, you averagethe nighttime and daytime
temperatures, they're gonna bevery warm through that period.
Todd Gleason (22:08):
That is typical of recent years where the overnight
lows are higher and the highsduring the day are not in that
98, 99, 102 degrees, but lowerlevels still the average comes
out to be a higher averagethroughout the period.
Don Day (22:25):
Yeah. Now one thing that and and we've talked about
this in earlier interviews isthat while we do see the heat
coming in, one thing that'shappened this summer is when we
do get heat domes, they don'ttend to last as long as
forecast, and I think that'll bethe case with this as well.
Todd Gleason (22:45):
Thank you much, Don.
Don Day (22:46):
Thank you.
Todd Gleason (22:47):
Dundee is with Dayweather. He's in Cheyenne,
Wyoming. Joined us on thisTuesday edition of the closing
market report that came to youfrom Illinois, a public medium.
It is public radio for thefarming world online on demand
anytime you'd like to listen tous at willag.org, willag.0rg.
I'm University of IllinoisExtension's Todd Gleason.
(23:49):
Doctor. JACKSON:
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