July 16, 2025 • 23 mins
- Greg Johnson, TotalGrainMarketing.com
- CPB/USAID Funding Debate in the Senate
- Drew Lerner, WorldWeather.cc
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Todd Gleason (00:00):
From the Land Grant University in Urbana
(00:02):
Champaign, Illinois. This is theclosing market reported as the
July. I'm extension's ToddGleason. Coming up, we'll talk
about the commodity markets withGreg Johnson. He's at TGM.
That's totalgrainmarketing.com.We'll hear an update from the
floor of the senate as it'srelated to the bill that would
rescind NPR and PBS fundingalong with funding for USAID.
(00:27):
And then we'll turn ourattention to the weather
forecast. Do that with DrewLerner at World Weather
Incorporated in Kansas City onthis Wednesday edition of the
closing market report fromIllinois Public Media. It is
public radio for the farmingworld online on demand at
willag.org.
That's willag.0rg.
announcer (00:48):
Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by
University of IllinoisExtension.
Todd Gleason (00:56):
September corn for the day at $4.00 5 and a
quarter, 4 higher. Decembersettled at $4.24. That's your
new crop up 4 and a quartercents. The March corn at $4.41,
up 4 and a quarter. Augustsoybeans rallied 18.
Today, they settled at $10.13and a half. September 10 o five
and three quarters, also up 18and a half cents, and new crop
(01:17):
November soybeans $10.20 and ahalf 18 and 3 quarters of a cent
higher. Bean meal futures at$2.68 40 up $3.10, the bean oil
$54.82, 26¢ higher. Weedfutures, soft bread, December
contract at $5.61 and threequarters, up three. The hard red
December at $5.45 at a quarter.
(01:38):
The hard red wheat, down threequarters of a cent. Live cattle
futures at $220.75, a dollar 47and a half higher for the day.
Feeder cattle at $3.25 57 and ahalf cent up $3.30, and lean
hogs at $88.70, a dollar and 22and a half cents higher on the
(02:00):
afternoon. Crude oil futures at$65.29 a barrel. That's just
about 7¢ lower.
Diesel fuel or heating oil at$2.36 and 9 tenths, 8 tenths of
a cent lower, and gasoline onthe RBOP finished at $2.10 and a
half cents, a penny and 7 tenthsof a cent lower. The Dow Jones
(02:20):
Industrial Average now stands at44,416. It's about a 170 points
higher on this Wednesdayafternoon. Greg Johnson from
TGN. That'stotalgrainmarketing.com.
The elevator owned by FS here inChampaign County now joins us to
take a look at the marketplace.Hey. A little uptrend. This is
(02:43):
not turnaround Tuesday, but wowWednesday, I think. Or at least
that's what farmers are probablyit's only you know, it's 10 or
15¢ in the soybeans and a fewpennies in the corn, but it sure
feels good, I guess.
What are you thinking about themarketplace today?
Greg Johnson (02:57):
Yeah. This is actually the third day in a row
that the corn market hasrallied. And as you said,
pennies, not not significantmoves, but at least it's got a
plus sign in front of it. And, Ithink that's probably not to be,
unexpected. We've had a 40¢ dropin corn prices since, late May,
(03:18):
and we've had a 60¢ drop insoybean prices since late May.
So we were kind of due for thistechnical bounce, and there's
not a lot of fundamental news asfar as a reason why we're
bouncing today. Some of theforecasts are calling for some
hot weather to come back in nextweek, but those same forecasters
are also calling for rain. Sohot and wet, obviously, isn't as
(03:42):
bad as hot and dry. But I Ithink that prob just the fact
that we've gone down so muchwithout a little bit of a
bounce, I think the market wasready for a bounce, and they're
using the potentially hotweather. And if it's pop up
showers, not everyone may getrain.
And so there are some areas thatare starting to show some signs
(04:02):
of stress. Nothing that a goodrain wouldn't take care of, but
that is a concern. And before itwas the talk was how high is the
yield? The USDA is using 181,and prior to this week, it was
well, is it 182, 184, 186? Nowall of a sudden, you know,
(04:23):
there's really, it doesn'tnecessarily have to be higher.
It could be a little bit lowerthan one eighty one. So I think
we're starting to see a littlebit of, uncertainty as to what
the yield is gonna be, whichmakes sense. We're only in the
July, and, so the corn crop'sgot another three to four weeks,
where we can, you know, have abetter idea to deter before we
(04:43):
determine the yield. So just theuncertainty, I think, and the
fact that we've been down alittle bit, is causing the
bounce higher today.
Todd Gleason (04:51):
Yeah. So on Monday, we had, what, a contract
low, I think, in December corn,but it closed higher for the day
and then followed up on Tuesdayagain today as you and I are
talking. What are thepossibilities it turns and goes
back down and this is just abounce?
Greg Johnson (05:09):
Well, last year, if we look at last year,
December corn went all the waydown to $3.90 before we bounced
and finished the year at $4.40.I think we made that $3.90 low
right around the September 1. Sothis year December corn's at
$4.25. So with the same kind ofcarryout projected this year as
(05:29):
we were projecting last year, wedefinitely could see corn drop
below $4 as we get into the fallif we get good rains for the
rest of July and followed upwith good rains in August. So
there's a decent chance that wecould keep going lower, but the
weather over the next three tofour weeks will go a long way.
(05:50):
And until we know that, youknow, maybe we can bounce 20¢
higher before we go 40¢ lower.
Todd Gleason (05:55):
So I was searching out, something that I had
recalled Darrell Good hadwritten and Scott Irwin related
to reference prices. Maybe notquite reference prices, but
price supports and, of course,the one big beautiful bill act,
has changed those prices.They're up substantially. You
can learn more about that, fromthe PharmDoc Daily website, by
(06:16):
the way. There are a couple ofarticles there that can bring
you up to speed on it.
But how that sometimes puts afloor in the market, and and I
went searching for that articleand found one instead from Daryl
talking about sideways movementin the marketplace. I think I
wanna say it was from 2017. Andso I went back and looked, and
(06:38):
in that particular year, themarket folded. It had been going
sideways about this time, andthen it just but it folded and
then and then dropped into theinto the into the fall. So it it
it's interesting to see and lookback historically.
No year is the same. This yearwhen you're thinking about
(07:00):
soybeans, what kinds ofhistorical perspectives are you
using?
Greg Johnson (07:04):
Well, last year or this year we've been as high as
10.75 on the November contractas low as 9.75. And today we're
kind of in that 10.25 range. Sowe're in the lower half of the
range, but just barely, whereascorn, like you said, we just
made new contract lows earlierthis week. So the corn is
definitely at the bottom end ofthe range. The beans are kind of
(07:27):
in the middle of the range andwe won't know as far as bean
yield is concerned until August.
That's usually when the beancrop is made. So we do have some
good demand on the soybean oilside, but as we've talked
before, you can't crush soybeansjust for the oil. You're left
over with all the meal and themeal is making basically
contract lows as we speak, eventhough the oil prices rallying
(07:51):
higher and soybeans are kind ofstuck right in the middle. So I
think there's a lot ofuncertainty yet as far as the
bean yield is concerned, andthen you throw on top of that,
when, if ever, will Chinaresume, return and start buying
US beans. This typically is thetime of year when China will buy
beans from The United States.
(08:12):
We had a private sale to unknownthis week. Was that China or was
that somebody else? We don'tknow. So we're hopeful that,
cooler heads prevail and thatChina will return and start
buying US soybeans. Otherwise,we typically ship those beans in
the fall.
If we don't ship those beans inthe fall, we are going to have
(08:33):
quite a bit of a glut storagewise to try to store both the
corn and the bean crop in thefall.
Todd Gleason (08:39):
So the last time we were in the midst of a trade
war with China, they had anextenuating circumstance within
their hog herd that allowed themnot to purchase through that
fall. Any at all, if I remembercorrectly, this was African
swine fever. Are there anyextenuating circumstances within
(08:59):
China at the moment that youthink would cause them to be
able to do the same thing?
Greg Johnson (09:06):
I still think they'll cooler heads will
prevail. They'll work outsomething. I think China does
need to buy some from us.Obviously, they're going to buy
as much as they can from Brazilfirst, with the bigger crop down
there. But I don't think Brazilhas enough to satisfy the
Chinese demand.
So I really do expect China toshow up. It's just a question of
(09:26):
whether they just absolutely buythe bare bones minimum or if
they will buy a little bit moreor something more along the
lines of what they normally buy.So, you know, the trade
negotiations continue to go onand we just don't know, but that
that probably will go a long waytowards telling us whether China
does, in fact, buy beans and andif that if so, how many.
Todd Gleason (09:49):
Thank you much. We'll talk with you again next
week.
Greg Johnson (09:51):
Alright. Thanks, Todd.
Todd Gleason (09:53):
That's Greg Johnson. He's with TGM,
totalgrainmarketing.com, theelevator owned by FS here in
Champaign County, Illinois.You're listening to the closing
market report from Illinois.Public media. It is public radio
for the farming world online ondemand anytime you'd like to
listen at willag.org,willag.0rg.
(10:14):
There you'll find our dailyagricultural programming to just
click and play. That's rightthere at willag.org, or you can
search it out in your favoritepodcast applications. Look for
the closing market report andcommodity week. You'll also find
the Illinois nutrient lossreduction podcast too. It's all
at willag.org, willag.0rg,including information from the
(10:37):
agricultural economist, the cropscientist, and the animal
scientist here in the College ofAgricultural Consumer and
Environmental Sciences.
(11:04):
Today, the Senate is legislationwhich would rescind two years
worth of funding alreadyallocated to public radio
stations across the nation andgovernment support for the
United States Agency forInternational Development or
USAID. I listened in thismorning to see how the debate
was running because, well, myentire career has been anchored
(11:25):
in public service. It started atage 19 when I spent the summers
broadcasting on the IllinoisState Fair radio network from
Springfield and to Coin,including the first year of
AgriLand. Then I was hired in asstudent help in 1984 here at
WILL on the University ofIllinois campus. As the closing
(11:45):
market report, this program wasbeing developed.
I've been here in one form oranother ever since. So this
debate about funding publicradio, it's important to me. I
reported on agriculture in thepublic interest across five
different decades. Here's anexcerpt from this morning's
discussion from the senatefloor. In it, you'll hear senate
(12:07):
majority leader republican JohnThune from South Dakota.
John Thune (12:11):
Reining in waste, fraud, and abuse in the federal
government is a priority sharedby president Trump and by senate
Republicans. I appreciate allthe work the administration has
done in identifying wastefulspending. And now it's time for
the senate to do its part to cutsome of that waste out of the
budget. It's a small butimportant step toward fiscal
(12:34):
sanity that we all should beable to agree is long overdue.
Mister president, two weeks ago,Republicans passed a historic
bill.
Todd Gleason (12:43):
That opening remark, about thirty seconds
long, was all the time JohnThune spent on the legislation
before the senate. The other sixminutes extolled the One Big
Beautiful Bill Act. Actually, alot of it outlined the changes
made to the agriculturalprograms. It's worth a listen.
Thune did not mention the dealhis senate colleague from South
Dakota, republican Mike Rounds,made to find two years worth of
(13:07):
alternative funding for tribalradio stations in his home
state.
The Republicans spent most oftheir time, at least those whom
I watched, talking about thesuccess of the one big beautiful
bill rather than USAID or thecorporation for public
broadcasting. The Democrats, inno big surprise, did the
opposite, extolling the meritsof public broadcasting and
(13:30):
USAID. Congress has until Fridayto take a final vote on the
legislation or it simply timesout. That's unusual, but it's
the way it works this timearound. I'll be watching, and I
suppose you will too.
Either way, I'll be heretomorrow and Friday and Monday.
(14:06):
Let's check-in on the globalgrowing regions to see how the
weather is impacting them. We'renow joined by Drew Lerner. He's
at World Weather Incorporated inKansas City. Hi, Drew.
Thanks for being with us today.
Drew Lerner (14:18):
Yeah. It's a beautiful day here, and we're
we're anticipating some warmerdays down the road, though.
Todd Gleason (14:24):
Tell me about those and the humidity that will
come along with it.
Drew Lerner (14:27):
Yeah. You know, we've had we've had a really
nice spring and early summer.Everyone would probably agree
with that. There's a fewextremes out there, but we've
managed to keep the moistureprofile fairly full in our soil.
And so the bottom line is whenwe start heating up, we're gonna
pull that moisture out into theair.
And of course, that's going tomake it pretty humid. So yeah,
(14:48):
high heat indices are likely tobe with us from the middle of
next week through the followingweekend, probably. We may see a
little taste of that beforethen, but I think we're going to
have a little bit mildertemperature regime in the
interim here. Not too bad in thenear term, but we is going to
get warm and humid. I thinkthere's some folks that are a
(15:09):
little concerned about whetherthis is going to become a
persistent feature, but I don'tthink that will be the case.
I think that our experience withhigh pressure and high humidity
and warm temperatures will onlybe lasting a few days. And then
we'll send the ridge that'sresponsible for all of that out
(15:30):
to the west, should open thedoor again for some more
seasonable temperatures and alittle less humidity. But, you
know, all those kind of strikesme as being a classic summer.
You know, I think there's atendency for the marketplace to
get a little excited about theprospects of a little ridge of
high pressure being around. Buteverything I've seen so far this
(15:52):
spring and early summer suresmells like normal to me.
And I think it still looks thatway for within the next couple
of weeks.
Todd Gleason (15:59):
If it's a classic summer, that means there will be
downpours, I think, from time totime. I can remember quite
vividly watching a downpour comeacross the field or more
importantly being at the countyor state fair and suddenly the
skies just open up, but thatwill continue in places from
time to time, I suppose.
Drew Lerner (16:18):
Yeah. Absolutely. Absolutely. We'll have our
moments of, excuse me, very warmto hot conditions too. So but I
don't think we're gonna seeanything that's gonna be
persistent for any great lengthof time.
So a good mix and the bottomline is still gonna be favorable
for crops.
Todd Gleason (16:34):
Let's check-in on some of the places that you have
been watching. One of those isthe Canadian Prairies. What are
conditions like there today?
Drew Lerner (16:42):
You know, the majority of the west and
southern portions of ThePrairies are doing okay. Nobody
in The Prairies necessarily isseeing ideal weather, maybe a
few areas in Alberta. But theNortheast Part of Saskatchewan
and much of Manitoba is reallyquite dry and there's some areas
near The US border that are alsoin the same boat. And there's a
(17:05):
big need for moisture in some ofthose drier biased areas. And
here it is mid July.
So we are running out of timefor those folks. Their growing
season's a lot shorter thanours. And so it's very, very
important that they get a gooddrink of water soon. And it
looks like that opportunity mayshow itself late this coming
(17:25):
weekend. And again, later nextweek, while we are seeing the
ridge of high pressure Park overparts of the Midwest, it should
bring moisture into parts ofCanada's prairies.
And hopefully they'll get acouple of shots of energy coming
into the area that'll tap intothat moisture and help to create
some rain. No matter what,they're not going to be out of
(17:47):
the woods, but they need to geta good drink of water before the
ridge returns, which is expectedto occur at the end of the
month. And so that'll besomething worth watching for a
while. Canada is not in the samelevel of criticalness, I guess,
with dryness that they've beenin past years, but there are
certainly places up that waythat need a good drink in order
(18:09):
to prevent a disaster fromevolving.
Todd Gleason (18:12):
Let's hop over to Europe and work our way from
west to east, from Francethrough Poland, Germany, maybe
for the corn crop along theBlack Sea area and then on
towards China please.
Drew Lerner (18:28):
Yeah, we do have quite a bit of dryness that
still remains in Western Europe,France in particular, but parts
of The UK, Belgium, Netherlands,and Western Germany. All of
those areas are really fightingsome dryness has been ongoing
since really January. And theheat that we had in late June
and early July really impactedthe crops in a pretty
(18:51):
substantial manner. We were justlooking at the vegetative health
index just a little while agotoday and a pretty dramatic
decline in crop conditions fromthe June to the July 1. And we
are not seeing large volumes ofrain for Western Europe, but
there will be an opportunity forrain as we go forward through
this coming Friday throughSunday.
(19:14):
And hopefully they'll get enoughrain to buy them a little bit
more time. But the moisturedeficits and the long term water
shortages are still going to bewith them through the end of the
summer. And I think August isprobably going to get hot and
dry again, at least one moretime for the Western Europe.
Eastern Europe for the most partis in fairly good shape. The
exception is in that LowerDanube River Basin area in
(19:37):
Southeastern Europe.
And that area is also quite dry.They do a lot of irrigating in
that area. So it's probably notas big of an issue as it might
be in parts of Western Europe.But nonetheless, it is still
very warm and dry with bias inthat area and they do need rain.
Recently, it's become quite dryin East Ukraine as well.
And temperatures there this pastweekend were in the nineties to
(20:01):
near 100 degrees, and it's notgoing to rain over the next ten
days from Eastern Ukrainethrough Russia's Southern region
to Western Kazakhstan. Now thisarea is very important to a
winter crop production regionfirst of and this is going to be
okay for that crop because it'sharvest time. So that's not an
(20:21):
issue, but there are a lot ofspring cereals and spring grain
and oil seeds that are producedin that same region. And they
are going to be stressed in theunirrigated fields. So we're
gonna keep an eye on that.
They definitely need a drink ofwater and that is not coming for
the next ten days for that area.Farther east, as you mentioned,
for China, there's really nottoo much going on in China. That
(20:44):
drought that they had earlierthis spring is gone. There was a
little bit of a return ofdryness recently in East Central
parts of China in the YellowRiver Basin area again, but it
is going to get whittled down asecond time as we go forward
through the next week to weekand a half. So most of China is
out of the woods at this point.
They may have lost a little bitof production potential from the
(21:07):
dryness earlier in the year, butI don't think it's going to have
a big long term impact. And Ishould point out areas in
between China and Europe inparts of India. The monsoon
continues to perform really wellexcept in the Far South of India
where it's been fairly dry, butthat area can plant later in the
year and still do alright. Soeven India is not in too much
(21:29):
trouble at this point.
Todd Gleason (21:30):
Hey. Thank you much. I appreciate it.
Drew Lerner (21:32):
You bet. Have a great day.
Todd Gleason (21:33):
Drew Lerner is with World Weather Incorporated
in Kansas City. Joined us onthis Wednesday edition of the
closing market report fromIllinois Public Media. It is
public radio for the farmingworld. I will remind you that
yesterday, I hosted a Farm DocDaily webinar about the changes
in the one big beautiful billand how they impact crop
(21:56):
insurance and commodityprograms. You can find that now
online.
Look for it atfarmdocdaily.illinois.edu under
the webinars archive section.However, it might be easier to
simply look for it in YouTube.You can do that at
youtube.com/@signfarmdoc. That'syoutube.com/@farmdoc. That's the
(22:23):
home page for Farm Doc Daily,and there you'll find not only
webinar, but five minute farmdocs, the closing mark report in
commodity week as YouTubepodcast, all kinds of things
that come from the agriculturaleconomist here on the Urbana
Champaign campus of the U ofI'm.
On that note, you can alwayscheck out our website too,
willag.org, willag.0rg. You'llfind a running list of the
(22:48):
articles that have been writtenby the crop scientist, the
agricultural economist, and theanimal scientist. There are a
couple of articles by the ageconomist about the one big
beautiful bill and its impact onag programming, and a new one by
Boris Camilletti, a cropscientist about tar spot and
Southern Ross too. I'm ToddGleeson.
From the Land Grant University in Urbana
(00:02):
Champaign, Illinois. This is theclosing market reported as the
July. I'm extension's ToddGleason. Coming up, we'll talk
about the commodity markets withGreg Johnson. He's at TGM.
That's totalgrainmarketing.com.We'll hear an update from the
floor of the senate as it'srelated to the bill that would
rescind NPR and PBS fundingalong with funding for USAID.
(00:27):
And then we'll turn ourattention to the weather
forecast. Do that with DrewLerner at World Weather
Incorporated in Kansas City onthis Wednesday edition of the
closing market report fromIllinois Public Media. It is
public radio for the farmingworld online on demand at
willag.org.
That's willag.0rg.
announcer (00:48):
Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by
University of IllinoisExtension.
Todd Gleason (00:56):
September corn for the day at $4.00 5 and a
quarter, 4 higher. Decembersettled at $4.24. That's your
new crop up 4 and a quartercents. The March corn at $4.41,
up 4 and a quarter. Augustsoybeans rallied 18.
Today, they settled at $10.13and a half. September 10 o five
and three quarters, also up 18and a half cents, and new crop
(01:17):
November soybeans $10.20 and ahalf 18 and 3 quarters of a cent
higher. Bean meal futures at$2.68 40 up $3.10, the bean oil
$54.82, 26¢ higher. Weedfutures, soft bread, December
contract at $5.61 and threequarters, up three. The hard red
December at $5.45 at a quarter.
(01:38):
The hard red wheat, down threequarters of a cent. Live cattle
futures at $220.75, a dollar 47and a half higher for the day.
Feeder cattle at $3.25 57 and ahalf cent up $3.30, and lean
hogs at $88.70, a dollar and 22and a half cents higher on the
(02:00):
afternoon. Crude oil futures at$65.29 a barrel. That's just
about 7¢ lower.
Diesel fuel or heating oil at$2.36 and 9 tenths, 8 tenths of
a cent lower, and gasoline onthe RBOP finished at $2.10 and a
half cents, a penny and 7 tenthsof a cent lower. The Dow Jones
(02:20):
Industrial Average now stands at44,416. It's about a 170 points
higher on this Wednesdayafternoon. Greg Johnson from
TGN. That'stotalgrainmarketing.com.
The elevator owned by FS here inChampaign County now joins us to
take a look at the marketplace.Hey. A little uptrend. This is
(02:43):
not turnaround Tuesday, but wowWednesday, I think. Or at least
that's what farmers are probablyit's only you know, it's 10 or
15¢ in the soybeans and a fewpennies in the corn, but it sure
feels good, I guess.
What are you thinking about themarketplace today?
Greg Johnson (02:57):
Yeah. This is actually the third day in a row
that the corn market hasrallied. And as you said,
pennies, not not significantmoves, but at least it's got a
plus sign in front of it. And, Ithink that's probably not to be,
unexpected. We've had a 40¢ dropin corn prices since, late May,
(03:18):
and we've had a 60¢ drop insoybean prices since late May.
So we were kind of due for thistechnical bounce, and there's
not a lot of fundamental news asfar as a reason why we're
bouncing today. Some of theforecasts are calling for some
hot weather to come back in nextweek, but those same forecasters
are also calling for rain. Sohot and wet, obviously, isn't as
(03:42):
bad as hot and dry. But I Ithink that prob just the fact
that we've gone down so muchwithout a little bit of a
bounce, I think the market wasready for a bounce, and they're
using the potentially hotweather. And if it's pop up
showers, not everyone may getrain.
And so there are some areas thatare starting to show some signs
(04:02):
of stress. Nothing that a goodrain wouldn't take care of, but
that is a concern. And before itwas the talk was how high is the
yield? The USDA is using 181,and prior to this week, it was
well, is it 182, 184, 186? Nowall of a sudden, you know,
(04:23):
there's really, it doesn'tnecessarily have to be higher.
It could be a little bit lowerthan one eighty one. So I think
we're starting to see a littlebit of, uncertainty as to what
the yield is gonna be, whichmakes sense. We're only in the
July, and, so the corn crop'sgot another three to four weeks,
where we can, you know, have abetter idea to deter before we
(04:43):
determine the yield. So just theuncertainty, I think, and the
fact that we've been down alittle bit, is causing the
bounce higher today.
Todd Gleason (04:51):
Yeah. So on Monday, we had, what, a contract
low, I think, in December corn,but it closed higher for the day
and then followed up on Tuesdayagain today as you and I are
talking. What are thepossibilities it turns and goes
back down and this is just abounce?
Greg Johnson (05:09):
Well, last year, if we look at last year,
December corn went all the waydown to $3.90 before we bounced
and finished the year at $4.40.I think we made that $3.90 low
right around the September 1. Sothis year December corn's at
$4.25. So with the same kind ofcarryout projected this year as
(05:29):
we were projecting last year, wedefinitely could see corn drop
below $4 as we get into the fallif we get good rains for the
rest of July and followed upwith good rains in August. So
there's a decent chance that wecould keep going lower, but the
weather over the next three tofour weeks will go a long way.
(05:50):
And until we know that, youknow, maybe we can bounce 20¢
higher before we go 40¢ lower.
Todd Gleason (05:55):
So I was searching out, something that I had
recalled Darrell Good hadwritten and Scott Irwin related
to reference prices. Maybe notquite reference prices, but
price supports and, of course,the one big beautiful bill act,
has changed those prices.They're up substantially. You
can learn more about that, fromthe PharmDoc Daily website, by
(06:16):
the way. There are a couple ofarticles there that can bring
you up to speed on it.
But how that sometimes puts afloor in the market, and and I
went searching for that articleand found one instead from Daryl
talking about sideways movementin the marketplace. I think I
wanna say it was from 2017. Andso I went back and looked, and
(06:38):
in that particular year, themarket folded. It had been going
sideways about this time, andthen it just but it folded and
then and then dropped into theinto the into the fall. So it it
it's interesting to see and lookback historically.
No year is the same. This yearwhen you're thinking about
(07:00):
soybeans, what kinds ofhistorical perspectives are you
using?
Greg Johnson (07:04):
Well, last year or this year we've been as high as
10.75 on the November contractas low as 9.75. And today we're
kind of in that 10.25 range. Sowe're in the lower half of the
range, but just barely, whereascorn, like you said, we just
made new contract lows earlierthis week. So the corn is
definitely at the bottom end ofthe range. The beans are kind of
(07:27):
in the middle of the range andwe won't know as far as bean
yield is concerned until August.
That's usually when the beancrop is made. So we do have some
good demand on the soybean oilside, but as we've talked
before, you can't crush soybeansjust for the oil. You're left
over with all the meal and themeal is making basically
contract lows as we speak, eventhough the oil prices rallying
(07:51):
higher and soybeans are kind ofstuck right in the middle. So I
think there's a lot ofuncertainty yet as far as the
bean yield is concerned, andthen you throw on top of that,
when, if ever, will Chinaresume, return and start buying
US beans. This typically is thetime of year when China will buy
beans from The United States.
(08:12):
We had a private sale to unknownthis week. Was that China or was
that somebody else? We don'tknow. So we're hopeful that,
cooler heads prevail and thatChina will return and start
buying US soybeans. Otherwise,we typically ship those beans in
the fall.
If we don't ship those beans inthe fall, we are going to have
(08:33):
quite a bit of a glut storagewise to try to store both the
corn and the bean crop in thefall.
Todd Gleason (08:39):
So the last time we were in the midst of a trade
war with China, they had anextenuating circumstance within
their hog herd that allowed themnot to purchase through that
fall. Any at all, if I remembercorrectly, this was African
swine fever. Are there anyextenuating circumstances within
(08:59):
China at the moment that youthink would cause them to be
able to do the same thing?
Greg Johnson (09:06):
I still think they'll cooler heads will
prevail. They'll work outsomething. I think China does
need to buy some from us.Obviously, they're going to buy
as much as they can from Brazilfirst, with the bigger crop down
there. But I don't think Brazilhas enough to satisfy the
Chinese demand.
So I really do expect China toshow up. It's just a question of
(09:26):
whether they just absolutely buythe bare bones minimum or if
they will buy a little bit moreor something more along the
lines of what they normally buy.So, you know, the trade
negotiations continue to go onand we just don't know, but that
that probably will go a long waytowards telling us whether China
does, in fact, buy beans and andif that if so, how many.
Todd Gleason (09:49):
Thank you much. We'll talk with you again next
week.
Greg Johnson (09:51):
Alright. Thanks, Todd.
Todd Gleason (09:53):
That's Greg Johnson. He's with TGM,
totalgrainmarketing.com, theelevator owned by FS here in
Champaign County, Illinois.You're listening to the closing
market report from Illinois.Public media. It is public radio
for the farming world online ondemand anytime you'd like to
listen at willag.org,willag.0rg.
(10:14):
There you'll find our dailyagricultural programming to just
click and play. That's rightthere at willag.org, or you can
search it out in your favoritepodcast applications. Look for
the closing market report andcommodity week. You'll also find
the Illinois nutrient lossreduction podcast too. It's all
at willag.org, willag.0rg,including information from the
(10:37):
agricultural economist, the cropscientist, and the animal
scientist here in the College ofAgricultural Consumer and
Environmental Sciences.
(11:04):
Today, the Senate is legislationwhich would rescind two years
worth of funding alreadyallocated to public radio
stations across the nation andgovernment support for the
United States Agency forInternational Development or
USAID. I listened in thismorning to see how the debate
was running because, well, myentire career has been anchored
(11:25):
in public service. It started atage 19 when I spent the summers
broadcasting on the IllinoisState Fair radio network from
Springfield and to Coin,including the first year of
AgriLand. Then I was hired in asstudent help in 1984 here at
WILL on the University ofIllinois campus. As the closing
(11:45):
market report, this program wasbeing developed.
I've been here in one form oranother ever since. So this
debate about funding publicradio, it's important to me. I
reported on agriculture in thepublic interest across five
different decades. Here's anexcerpt from this morning's
discussion from the senatefloor. In it, you'll hear senate
(12:07):
majority leader republican JohnThune from South Dakota.
John Thune (12:11):
Reining in waste, fraud, and abuse in the federal
government is a priority sharedby president Trump and by senate
Republicans. I appreciate allthe work the administration has
done in identifying wastefulspending. And now it's time for
the senate to do its part to cutsome of that waste out of the
budget. It's a small butimportant step toward fiscal
(12:34):
sanity that we all should beable to agree is long overdue.
Mister president, two weeks ago,Republicans passed a historic
bill.
Todd Gleason (12:43):
That opening remark, about thirty seconds
long, was all the time JohnThune spent on the legislation
before the senate. The other sixminutes extolled the One Big
Beautiful Bill Act. Actually, alot of it outlined the changes
made to the agriculturalprograms. It's worth a listen.
Thune did not mention the dealhis senate colleague from South
Dakota, republican Mike Rounds,made to find two years worth of
(13:07):
alternative funding for tribalradio stations in his home
state.
The Republicans spent most oftheir time, at least those whom
I watched, talking about thesuccess of the one big beautiful
bill rather than USAID or thecorporation for public
broadcasting. The Democrats, inno big surprise, did the
opposite, extolling the meritsof public broadcasting and
(13:30):
USAID. Congress has until Fridayto take a final vote on the
legislation or it simply timesout. That's unusual, but it's
the way it works this timearound. I'll be watching, and I
suppose you will too.
Either way, I'll be heretomorrow and Friday and Monday.
(14:06):
Let's check-in on the globalgrowing regions to see how the
weather is impacting them. We'renow joined by Drew Lerner. He's
at World Weather Incorporated inKansas City. Hi, Drew.
Thanks for being with us today.
Drew Lerner (14:18):
Yeah. It's a beautiful day here, and we're
we're anticipating some warmerdays down the road, though.
Todd Gleason (14:24):
Tell me about those and the humidity that will
come along with it.
Drew Lerner (14:27):
Yeah. You know, we've had we've had a really
nice spring and early summer.Everyone would probably agree
with that. There's a fewextremes out there, but we've
managed to keep the moistureprofile fairly full in our soil.
And so the bottom line is whenwe start heating up, we're gonna
pull that moisture out into theair.
And of course, that's going tomake it pretty humid. So yeah,
(14:48):
high heat indices are likely tobe with us from the middle of
next week through the followingweekend, probably. We may see a
little taste of that beforethen, but I think we're going to
have a little bit mildertemperature regime in the
interim here. Not too bad in thenear term, but we is going to
get warm and humid. I thinkthere's some folks that are a
(15:09):
little concerned about whetherthis is going to become a
persistent feature, but I don'tthink that will be the case.
I think that our experience withhigh pressure and high humidity
and warm temperatures will onlybe lasting a few days. And then
we'll send the ridge that'sresponsible for all of that out
(15:30):
to the west, should open thedoor again for some more
seasonable temperatures and alittle less humidity. But, you
know, all those kind of strikesme as being a classic summer.
You know, I think there's atendency for the marketplace to
get a little excited about theprospects of a little ridge of
high pressure being around. Buteverything I've seen so far this
(15:52):
spring and early summer suresmells like normal to me.
And I think it still looks thatway for within the next couple
of weeks.
Todd Gleason (15:59):
If it's a classic summer, that means there will be
downpours, I think, from time totime. I can remember quite
vividly watching a downpour comeacross the field or more
importantly being at the countyor state fair and suddenly the
skies just open up, but thatwill continue in places from
time to time, I suppose.
Drew Lerner (16:18):
Yeah. Absolutely. Absolutely. We'll have our
moments of, excuse me, very warmto hot conditions too. So but I
don't think we're gonna seeanything that's gonna be
persistent for any great lengthof time.
So a good mix and the bottomline is still gonna be favorable
for crops.
Todd Gleason (16:34):
Let's check-in on some of the places that you have
been watching. One of those isthe Canadian Prairies. What are
conditions like there today?
Drew Lerner (16:42):
You know, the majority of the west and
southern portions of ThePrairies are doing okay. Nobody
in The Prairies necessarily isseeing ideal weather, maybe a
few areas in Alberta. But theNortheast Part of Saskatchewan
and much of Manitoba is reallyquite dry and there's some areas
near The US border that are alsoin the same boat. And there's a
(17:05):
big need for moisture in some ofthose drier biased areas. And
here it is mid July.
So we are running out of timefor those folks. Their growing
season's a lot shorter thanours. And so it's very, very
important that they get a gooddrink of water soon. And it
looks like that opportunity mayshow itself late this coming
(17:25):
weekend. And again, later nextweek, while we are seeing the
ridge of high pressure Park overparts of the Midwest, it should
bring moisture into parts ofCanada's prairies.
And hopefully they'll get acouple of shots of energy coming
into the area that'll tap intothat moisture and help to create
some rain. No matter what,they're not going to be out of
(17:47):
the woods, but they need to geta good drink of water before the
ridge returns, which is expectedto occur at the end of the
month. And so that'll besomething worth watching for a
while. Canada is not in the samelevel of criticalness, I guess,
with dryness that they've beenin past years, but there are
certainly places up that waythat need a good drink in order
(18:09):
to prevent a disaster fromevolving.
Todd Gleason (18:12):
Let's hop over to Europe and work our way from
west to east, from Francethrough Poland, Germany, maybe
for the corn crop along theBlack Sea area and then on
towards China please.
Drew Lerner (18:28):
Yeah, we do have quite a bit of dryness that
still remains in Western Europe,France in particular, but parts
of The UK, Belgium, Netherlands,and Western Germany. All of
those areas are really fightingsome dryness has been ongoing
since really January. And theheat that we had in late June
and early July really impactedthe crops in a pretty
(18:51):
substantial manner. We were justlooking at the vegetative health
index just a little while agotoday and a pretty dramatic
decline in crop conditions fromthe June to the July 1. And we
are not seeing large volumes ofrain for Western Europe, but
there will be an opportunity forrain as we go forward through
this coming Friday throughSunday.
(19:14):
And hopefully they'll get enoughrain to buy them a little bit
more time. But the moisturedeficits and the long term water
shortages are still going to bewith them through the end of the
summer. And I think August isprobably going to get hot and
dry again, at least one moretime for the Western Europe.
Eastern Europe for the most partis in fairly good shape. The
exception is in that LowerDanube River Basin area in
(19:37):
Southeastern Europe.
And that area is also quite dry.They do a lot of irrigating in
that area. So it's probably notas big of an issue as it might
be in parts of Western Europe.But nonetheless, it is still
very warm and dry with bias inthat area and they do need rain.
Recently, it's become quite dryin East Ukraine as well.
And temperatures there this pastweekend were in the nineties to
(20:01):
near 100 degrees, and it's notgoing to rain over the next ten
days from Eastern Ukrainethrough Russia's Southern region
to Western Kazakhstan. Now thisarea is very important to a
winter crop production regionfirst of and this is going to be
okay for that crop because it'sharvest time. So that's not an
(20:21):
issue, but there are a lot ofspring cereals and spring grain
and oil seeds that are producedin that same region. And they
are going to be stressed in theunirrigated fields. So we're
gonna keep an eye on that.
They definitely need a drink ofwater and that is not coming for
the next ten days for that area.Farther east, as you mentioned,
for China, there's really nottoo much going on in China. That
(20:44):
drought that they had earlierthis spring is gone. There was a
little bit of a return ofdryness recently in East Central
parts of China in the YellowRiver Basin area again, but it
is going to get whittled down asecond time as we go forward
through the next week to weekand a half. So most of China is
out of the woods at this point.
They may have lost a little bitof production potential from the
(21:07):
dryness earlier in the year, butI don't think it's going to have
a big long term impact. And Ishould point out areas in
between China and Europe inparts of India. The monsoon
continues to perform really wellexcept in the Far South of India
where it's been fairly dry, butthat area can plant later in the
year and still do alright. Soeven India is not in too much
(21:29):
trouble at this point.
Todd Gleason (21:30):
Hey. Thank you much. I appreciate it.
Drew Lerner (21:32):
You bet. Have a great day.
Todd Gleason (21:33):
Drew Lerner is with World Weather Incorporated
in Kansas City. Joined us onthis Wednesday edition of the
closing market report fromIllinois Public Media. It is
public radio for the farmingworld. I will remind you that
yesterday, I hosted a Farm DocDaily webinar about the changes
in the one big beautiful billand how they impact crop
(21:56):
insurance and commodityprograms. You can find that now
online.
Look for it atfarmdocdaily.illinois.edu under
the webinars archive section.However, it might be easier to
simply look for it in YouTube.You can do that at
youtube.com/@signfarmdoc. That'syoutube.com/@farmdoc. That's the
(22:23):
home page for Farm Doc Daily,and there you'll find not only
webinar, but five minute farmdocs, the closing mark report in
commodity week as YouTubepodcast, all kinds of things
that come from the agriculturaleconomist here on the Urbana
Champaign campus of the U ofI'm.
On that note, you can alwayscheck out our website too,
willag.org, willag.0rg. You'llfind a running list of the
(22:48):
articles that have been writtenby the crop scientist, the
agricultural economist, and theanimal scientist. There are a
couple of articles by the ageconomist about the one big
beautiful bill and its impact onag programming, and a new one by
Boris Camilletti, a cropscientist about tar spot and
Southern Ross too. I'm ToddGleeson.
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