July 18, 2025 • 23 mins
- Mike Zuzolo, GlobalCommResearch.com
- WILLAg News Update
- Eric Snodgrass, NutrienAgSolutions.com
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Todd Gleason (00:00):
From the land grant university in Urbana
Champaign, Illinois. This is theclosing market reported as the
July. I'm extension's ToddGleason. Coming up, we'll talk
about the commodity markets withMike Zuzlow. He's at
globalcomresearch.com out ofAtchison, Kansas.
If you'll stay with us for thewhole of the hour, you'll hear
(00:20):
more from Mike as he joined ourcommodity week program recorded
yesterday afternoon along withNaomi Blohm of
totalfarmmarketing.com and JimMcCormick from agmarket.net. If
not, it's up online already foryou to listen to it will ag.org
and many of these radio stationswill carry it over the weekend.
(00:40):
After Mike in the beginning ofour program, the closing market
report, we'll take a look atwhat's happening in today's
agricultural news. And then aswe close out the first part of
the day, we'll discuss theagricultural weather forecast
with Eric Snodgrass. He's atNutrien Ag Solutions and
Agrabal, and we'll do all ofthat on the programming that
(01:01):
comes to you from IllinoisPublic Media.
It is public radio for thefarming world online, on demand,
anytime you'd like atwillag.org.
announce (01:14):
Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by
University of IllinoisExtension.
Todd Gleason (01:19):
December corn for the day at four twenty seven
three quarters, six and threequarters higher. The March at
four forty four and threequarters, up six and a half
cents. November beans, tenthirty five and three quarters,
9 and a quarter cents higher.Bean meal up $5.30. The bean
oil, 40¢ lower.
Soft red winter wheat in theDecember up twelve and three
quarters settled at $5.67, andthe hard red at $5.51 and a half
(01:43):
cents a bushel finished 11 and ahalf higher. Mike Zuzlow,
globalcomresearch.com out ofAtchison, Kansas now joins us to
discuss the marketplace. Hi,Mike. Thanks for being with us
today and for recordingcommodity week with us yesterday
too. I appreciate that.
Mike Zuzolo (01:57):
You bet, Todd. Great to be with you.
Todd Gleason (01:59):
Let's start, with what's happening in the
marketplace. There was a bouncein the corn today. Why did that
take place?
Mike Zuzolo (02:06):
Well, I think the big thing that we noticed was
the corn was released from thewheat complex, and it was really
the wheat that had been draggingthe row crops, trying to drag
them lower. In the case of corn,it was succeeding. In the case
of beans, not so much because wehad the products underneath us.
Wheat changed with the crudeoil, and the crude oil and the
(02:27):
dollar seemed to work reallywell together, something we
discussed on the commodity weekprogram this week. That to me,
Todd, is an indication or atleast a strong piece of the
puzzle for this maybe being moreabout demand and versus supply
and weather as far as theturnaround and the fact that
Decor and Nove beans are nowboth inching into those gaps
(02:50):
left from the July 4 holiday.
Another key piece of that wasearlier in this week when we
started to see a little bitbetter headlines on trade,
specifically US Chinanegotiations and the possibility
of the two presidents of thosecountries getting together. It
seemed like to me, this is thethird or fourth time now since
before July 4 that the trade hastried to price in improving
(03:13):
trade mindsets or sentiment, andthat we're gonna get some trade
deals. And so it's a prettycritical weekend like it was
going into the July 4 holiday,both in terms of rainfall and
also the trade negotiations. Sovery similar in my mind to that
three day weekend.
Todd Gleason (03:29):
Now as it happens, Mike, and I did not plan it this
way, but those of thoselisteners who are live and
listening on the air will hearthe last, thing that said is
you, underscoring that you thinkthat possibly the lows have been
put in place, at least, you goon to say temporarily, but that
(03:52):
lows have been put in place. Isuppose that today's trade felt
pretty good too in that case.
Mike Zuzolo (03:58):
Yeah. It really was necessary for the analysis
because if you're gonna go up onweather, you're gonna have a
really sharp rally typically.And and as I said, we talk about
this a lot in the commodity weekprogram that we we really aren't
really getting excited aboutweather yet. Maybe at the very
end of the week, we saw someforecasts suggesting hot and dry
or August outlooks frommeteorologists, but they they
(04:20):
got really burned in July. SoI'm not so sure the trades are
really buying into that.
And so the beans leading theupside, the meal leading the
upside, prices at, you know,anywhere from three close to
three year lows in the case ofthe wheat, nine year lows in the
case of the meal. And then yousee the WASDE report numbers.
Why were we going lower? Was itall just the supply and weather,
(04:41):
or was it negative tradesentiment? So that's kind of
what I'm trying to put together.
Todd Gleason (04:44):
And when you think about that, you really are
looking at the demand side andsaying we've gone low enough and
we're building demand?
Mike Zuzolo (04:52):
Yeah. I think we're holding on to the demand thanks
to the weak dollar and becauseof some of the trade deals that
we have gotten so far. Thetrade, I think, is priced in
some negative demand. And one ofthe comparisons that I like to
look at right now, Todd, iswe're making record highs on
Wall Street. They seem fearlessabout the tariffs, whereas
LaSalle Street is, as I said,working towards lows.
And when you look at the worldsupply demand and you look at
(05:14):
the fact that we got around$3.95 and almost filled the gap
to the downside on the weeklycorn chart last week, you know,
that puts me at about a2,200,000,000.0 bushel carryover
in terms of what I think thetrade is probably trading or
pricing in. So we had plenty ofeither better yield projections
or weakening demand projections,however you wanna look at it. I
(05:35):
I do think there is a windowhere between now and the August
report that if we can get somesolid trade negotiation updates,
and we don't see any, outsidemarket fluctuations, like a
really sharply lower crude oil,sharply higher dollar, we can
come off these lows and maybe dobetter than filling the gap and
breaking through some resistancelevels.
Todd Gleason (05:56):
Yeah. So if that were to happen, you might see
traveling higher, maybe eventhrough harvest, I suppose.
Mike Zuzolo (06:02):
I'm not sure I'd go through harvest. I think a lot
will depend upon what USD givesus for the August yield. I do
think we need to feed the bullsome with some weather, whether
it's Ukrainian weather, orwhether it's US weather in terms
of corn, especially. I still seethe beans as maybe the leader to
the downside because the supplydemand fundamentals minus the
yield. I mean, if we came inwith a lot lower yield in the
(06:24):
soybeans, then I'd have torecalibrate and and refigure
that.
But, my take is this is a a keycrucial step to a low because it
would be a demand low and thatthen theoretically would be like
a thirty, forty degree anglewhere you have higher highs,
higher lows, build trend lines,so on and so forth. And it seems
like this time of the year withthe demand that we have, if we
(06:46):
get trade deals, that would seemlikely or logical at least. But
heavens knows we have not beenlogical in this very much.
Todd Gleason (06:53):
So between now and the USDA report, we'll have, the
August deadline date. Tariffs,maybe some trade deals, you, I
suppose, are telling producersto fulfill their cash needs to
make cash sales once those highssort of come when we get to the
(07:14):
top of the gaps?
Mike Zuzolo (07:15):
Yeah. That's exactly right. I I think one of
the things that we have to dealwith right now in the short term
is do we need to protect ourcrop insurance base price from a
rally at this stage of the game?But you have to balance that
with what you cannot store andwhether your cash basis is good
or bad right now. So I thinkthat's exactly right.
You get above the gaps, or youyou fill the gaps, you test the
(07:35):
resistance levels. If you can'tpush through those resistance
levels before the August WASDEreport, you really wanna start
thinking about what your nextplan is as far as protecting the
downside.
Todd Gleason (07:45):
Thank you very much, and I appreciate you being
on our commodity week program.
Mike Zuzolo (07:48):
Thank you again, Todd. It's great to be with you.
Todd Gleason (07:50):
Mhmm. That is Mike Zusalo. He's at
globalcolumnresearch.com inBatcheson, Kansas. In today's
agricultural news, presidentTrump claims Coca Cola has
agreed to change its recipe andthe corn industry is giving him
an earful. Trump wrote on TrueSocial that Coca Cola executives
(08:12):
have agreed to go Mexican andswitch from high fructose corn
syrup in Coke to cane sugar.
That may be the real thing toTrump who drinks Diet Coke, but
not for the Corn RefinersAssociation and its president
and CEO, John Bodhi.
John Bodie (08:30):
Replacing HFCS with cane sugar would be devastating
blow to thousands ofmanufacturing jobs in American
agriculture, and it woulddepress farm prices, and it
would add to our trade deficitbecause every bit of HFCS that
is replaced with cane sugarwould be imported cane sugar.
Todd Gleason (08:53):
All of that would undermine the president's stance
on farmers, manufacturers, andthe trade deficit. As for the
economic impact on The US cornindustry, Bodhi cited a study by
North Dakota State University.
John Bodie (09:06):
The immediate impact on corn prices nationally would
be 15 to 34¢ per bushel, adevastating blow to American
agriculture. And once again,this tweet was talking about
cane sugar, so there's not anyconsolation for the beet
growers.
Todd Gleason (09:25):
A MAHA commission report in May argued high
fructose corn syrup is a factorin obesity and related diseases,
but a Washington Post story saysscientists say there is little
nutritional difference betweensugar and high fructose corn
syrup. Still unclear fromTrump's comments is just how
much US Coke will be made withcane sugar. The next MAHA
(09:48):
commission report is due out inAugust. Let's stay with the
Trump administration. It saysthere will not be a crackdown on
pesticide use in The UnitedStates.
Politico says that's despite areport from the Make America
Healthy Again committee thatcalled crop protection products
dangerous to people's health.During a recent policy
(10:10):
roundtable in DC, seven out ofthe 10 mentioned how important
pesticides and fertilizers arein modern agricultural
production systems. Agricultureindustry lobbyists have been
pushing back against the MakeAmerica Healthy Again committee
report, which linked pesticidesto cancers and other diseases. A
White House official speakinganonymously says a plan for
(10:33):
acting on that report is due inAugust and will not include new
policies on pesticide use. Andfinally today, there is a
candidate for the chief agnegotiator position at USTR.
Julie Callahan, the assistant UStrade representative for
agricultural affairs andcommodity policy, is President
(10:53):
Trump's nominee for the role ofChief Ag Negotiator. Callahan
has been with the agency since2016, serving as Senior Director
for Agricultural Affairs beforebeing promoted to Deputy USTR
position in 2020. The presidenthas now nominated people to
serve in all USTR deputy roles.And that's a look at today's
(11:16):
agricultural news. Let's turnour attention on this Friday to
the weather.
Eric Snodgrass is here. He'swith Nutrien Ag Solutions and
Agribal Meteorologist. Thank youmuch, Eric, for taking some time
(11:41):
with us. We haven't talked in abit, so maybe we should look
backwards before we lookforwards. How did June and July
play out for you?
Eric Snodgrass (11:51):
Well, I I I guess it's more how did it play
out for everybody else otherthan Illinois? So I don't know
how far your signal reaches,Todd here. I do know you're on
the Internet, so I guess itreaches everywhere. But, man,
these guys in Iowa and Nebraskaare kinda kicking our butts with
really, really good weather.
Todd Gleason (12:09):
I guess they are.
Eric Snodgrass (12:10):
I mean, it's now they've had holes. They've had
they've had some severe weather,but if you look at it on the
whole, they're gonna be settingnew records for the NDVI, the
Normalized Difference VegetationIndex. That's a plant health
indicator from satellite. It'sthe best that they've seen since
2001 when some of these recordsbegan. And then you come over to
(12:30):
Illinois and parts, especiallyNorthern Indiana, and you're
going to start to find someholes in the precipitation over
the last, not just two to threeweeks, but even going back
farther than that.
And so I think you're going tohave some folks that are, you
know, in, let's call it Central,East Central, North Central
Illinois that are just going,gosh. We we missed out on what
everybody else was getting. Nowyou rewind the clock a week ago,
(12:53):
and we watched really heavyrains move into Northern
Illinois. And then over thatsame weekend, you know, I got a
call from Matt Bennett sayingthat he just got he just had a
million dollar rain hit hisstuff down in Southern Illinois.
But, Todd, I don't know aboutyou, but even though we've had
some heavy dew in the morning,we've had some rain come by,
(13:13):
it's a tenth.
It's two tenths of an inch insome spots around here. And we
evaporate that relativelyquickly. To be honest, we need a
good soaker in this area toensure that the crop is going to
just really hit it out of thepark here. So here's the long
story short. It is hard to findexpansive problems in the Corn
Belt right now.
Now that's not talking aboutdisease pressures. I know
(13:34):
there's a lot of folks seeingtar spot and other diseases. But
when it comes to the weather,we've, you know, well, the whole
Corn Belt has got the highest inDVI I've seen since I've been
doing professional weatherforecasting. So that's even
better than 'nine and 'fourteenand some of those years that
were, you know, prettyspectacular. But as you know,
what has also happened since welast talked is the overnight low
(13:57):
temperatures have been prettyhigh.
So you can have a crop thatlooks good from space when
you're staring at, well, reallyjust how much chlorophyll's in
the thing and still have someissues there. And if you go from
East Central Illinois all theway across Indiana and Ohio, the
last month has been like topfive warmest for overnight low
temperatures since recordsbegan, which those began back in
(14:20):
1893. So there's a lot ofdiscussion right now about maybe
what's going on in pollinationwith the crop being a little
stressed, even though it looksgood from the road. And we just
want to know if that's going tobe a factor. Todd, tell me, have
you heard a lot about this, what
Todd Gleason (14:37):
do
Eric Snodgrass (14:37):
they call it? Tight, something about the way
the silk is coming out, thatyours kinda tight not letting it
come out. Have you heard aboutthis?
Todd Gleason (14:46):
I have not.
Eric Snodgrass (14:48):
I have I've had a lot of folks and I I know that
people are gonna be listening tous right now going, come on,
idiots. You know, we all knowwhat this is called. I forgot.
But it's they've had sometrouble with, you know, some of
the process of pollination,specifically with the ear being
kind of tight and the way thatthe silk has been able to get
out. So there's been somesuggestions of that and they're
(15:10):
relating it to hot overnight lowtemperatures.
So that's where we've been and Ineed to look that up and tell
you again so maybe you canmention it on there some other
time but that's been somethingthat's been kinda new for me.
Todd Gleason (15:21):
Yeah. So so the trick the best trick that I know
about pollination at least isonce once you believe
pollination has taken place, ifyou go out and you shuck the air
open Mhmm. If if if all of thatfalls off, every the ones that
are left are not pollinated.
Eric Snodgrass (15:40):
Ah, I didn't know that.
Todd Gleason (15:41):
Right? Yeah. If you flip it upside down and she
all falls off, you've got a cropcoming. That's for sure.
Eric Snodgrass (15:47):
So Very interesting. Yeah.
Todd Gleason (15:49):
Yeah. Yeah. We'll we'll see how that goes.
Speaking of which, crop coming.We'll need that rain.
We need a soaker. Do you seeanything more than just little
dribs and drabs here as thingspass by?
Eric Snodgrass (16:01):
I actually see quite a bit more. So we are
watching a pretty sizable ridgebuild into the first into the
Southeast and moving to theSouthern Plains. We will likely
sit on the periphery of it,giving us these daily chances
for storms. The flow is gonnacome out of the Northwest. There
is moisture in the atmosphere.
No problem with that. And so asa consequence, I think we're
(16:22):
looking more at, you know, a ahot stormy setup. And I do mean
hot. You know, I was justlooking here. Next week by
Wednesday, we're talking aboutheat index values, which again
are pushed upwards because ofthe humidity.
But 110 heat index. Good. Todd,you and I are both going to want
(16:44):
to go back to Wisconsin, wherewe've both recently been, just
to escape, what some of thisheat's gonna look like. So be
prepared for that. The worst ofit's gonna be to our south and
east initially, then south andwest after that.
So we do have some very hotconditions coming through, very
hot overnight low temperatures,but it's gonna storm, and that's
the difference maker. If you canget the storm in, brings in a
(17:06):
little bit of cooler conditionstemporarily, and that could
really help, you know, mitigatesome of the losses due to
excessive heat.
Todd Gleason (17:12):
Alright. Anything else before I let you go for the
day?
Eric Snodgrass (17:14):
I just say watch out for August. I know we're
gonna finish July on a hot note,but I wanna know is that ridge
gonna keep moving to the west?If it does, that could bring in
very favorable August conditionsfor us. However, if the ridge
goes back to, like, Cairo overtoward, you know, Nashville,
we've got a story on our handswhich could be giving on some
(17:35):
late growing season stresses inAugust. And then finally, Todd,
we are gonna have to starttalking at length about the
potential for a fall La Nina,what that could mean for fall
moisture levels and harvest andthen the upcoming winter.
So we're getting through itpretty quick.
Todd Gleason (17:51):
Hey. Thanks much. We'll talk with you again soon.
Eric Snodgrass (17:54):
Yeah. You bet.
Todd Gleason (17:54):
Eric Stodgrass is with Nutrient Ag Solutions.
Dagger will join us on thisFriday edition of the closing
market report that came to youfrom Illinois Public Media. It
is public radio for the farmingworld online on demand at
willag.org. That's willag.0rg.Up next is our commodity week
(18:15):
program.
If you can stay with us, you'llhear all of that program through
the top of the hour. Otherwise,many of these radio stations
will carry it over the weekend.
Jim McCormick (18:30):
Todd Gleason services are made available to
WILL by University of IllinoisExtension.
Todd Gleason (18:36):
Well welcome to Commodity Week, I am Todd
Gleason. Our panelists for theday include Naomi Blooms, at
totalfarmmarketing.com out ofWest Bend, Wisconsin. Jim
McCormick is here atagmarket.net in Barrington,
Illinois. And Mike Zusolo joinsus from globalcomresearch.com in
Atchison, Kansas. Thank you allfor being with us.
(18:56):
I think we'll start with a listof items that we might want to
discuss for the day. MikeSuslow, I'll start with you.
What's on your mind this week?
Mike Zuzolo (19:06):
You know, post July 4 and post WASDE report, we've
seen the market try and lurchtowards a low and wondering
whether this might not be maybea commodity demand low in
general as trade confidencestarts to grow a little bit
more, it seems, Todd. So maybewe want
Todd Gleason (19:24):
to discuss that. Jim McCormick from agmarket.net.
Jim McCormick (19:27):
Well, I know I think a big conversation with
the clients we have is, youknow, this crop is definitely
bigger than trend by mostaccounts. And what are what are
producers gonna do, especiallywith those bushels that they
store, you know, into the fall,and they're gonna have to make a
decision to the pay commercialstorage, dump it, maybe
something they should bethinking about before harvest
ramps up.
Todd Gleason (19:47):
And Naomi Bloom from totalfarmmarketing.com on
your list.
Naomi Blohm (19:51):
Yes. So let's definitely echo, what these two
gentlemen have said and talkingabout getting ready for what
marketplace might bring for thenext month for the grains. And
then also looking at cattlemarket a little bit, we've got a
cattle on feed and cattleinventory next week report next
Friday. So we want to gear upand get ready for that.
Todd Gleason (20:12):
Okay, let's start Mike with you. Post WASDE in
July, what are thepossibilities, and I have
started to ask this questionfrom time to time, that a
contract low in corn madeearlier in this week might be an
actual low. Can this marketplaceclimb higher through the harvest
(20:33):
season? And what would be inplace that would cause such a
thing to happen?
Mike Zuzolo (20:38):
Yeah. My take right now, Todd, is it's not likely
that it's gonna continue all theway through the harvest season.
I I think what I would belooking at is to get back up to
a value level. First stop wouldbe those gaps left over from the
July 4 holiday around 04:33 inDecor and $10.44 plus and Nove
beans. Get those gaps filled andthen see if we've got some trade
(21:02):
deals done.
And in specific trade dealsrelated to agriculture, I'd like
to hear what Naomi and Jim haveto say about this as well. But
the two major things I'm hearingon LaSalle Street or anyone
affiliated with ag commoditiesis I'm not going to buy if I'm
an investor fund. I'm not goingto cover shorts if I'm an
investor fund. And I'm not goingto buy out if I'm an end user
(21:25):
commercial because of the factthat we don't have enough
details in these trade deals.Agriculture has been a sticking
point with Japan, with SouthKorea, with India.
And so the trade, very nervous.But I also would say clients
have been calling in saying, doI need to protect my crop
insurance base price at thispoint, in case we get a decent
(21:46):
price action that can give us aretracement in this in this
market. And the USDA WASDEnumbers kept demand at least the
same or better worldwide, andwe're still getting tighter and
tighter on corn and wheatsupplies. And while, yes, we've
got a big crop coming on here inthe August report and most
likely going to get biggeryields, My price model would say
(22:09):
at the 3.95 corn price, we're ata 2,200,000,000.0 bushel crop
anyway at this stage. So I'mgoing to say it this way.
I think the demand low could bein if we continue to get some
good news in the next week ortwo by the end of the this
month. And that as long as wedon't take out four zero seven
and a half and nine eighty eighta quarter, those are our our
(22:31):
July 14 lows. I'm gonna say alow is in at this point.
Todd Gleason (22:35):
That's Mike Zuzolo. He's at
globalcommresearch.com out ofAtchison, Kansas. Joined us on
our commodity week program alongwith Naomi Bloom of
totalfarmmarketing.com. She's inWest Bend, Wisconsin. And Jim
McCormick out of Barrington,Illinois and agmarket.net.
You may hear the whole of thatprogram up on our website right
(22:56):
now at willag.org. That'swillag.0rg. The closing market
report and commodity week areproductions of Illinois Public
Media and University of IllinoisExtension. You have a great
afternoon. I'm Todd Gleason.
From the land grant university in Urbana
Champaign, Illinois. This is theclosing market reported as the
July. I'm extension's ToddGleason. Coming up, we'll talk
about the commodity markets withMike Zuzlow. He's at
globalcomresearch.com out ofAtchison, Kansas.
If you'll stay with us for thewhole of the hour, you'll hear
(00:20):
more from Mike as he joined ourcommodity week program recorded
yesterday afternoon along withNaomi Blohm of
totalfarmmarketing.com and JimMcCormick from agmarket.net. If
not, it's up online already foryou to listen to it will ag.org
and many of these radio stationswill carry it over the weekend.
(00:40):
After Mike in the beginning ofour program, the closing market
report, we'll take a look atwhat's happening in today's
agricultural news. And then aswe close out the first part of
the day, we'll discuss theagricultural weather forecast
with Eric Snodgrass. He's atNutrien Ag Solutions and
Agrabal, and we'll do all ofthat on the programming that
(01:01):
comes to you from IllinoisPublic Media.
It is public radio for thefarming world online, on demand,
anytime you'd like atwillag.org.
announce (01:14):
Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by
University of IllinoisExtension.
Todd Gleason (01:19):
December corn for the day at four twenty seven
three quarters, six and threequarters higher. The March at
four forty four and threequarters, up six and a half
cents. November beans, tenthirty five and three quarters,
9 and a quarter cents higher.Bean meal up $5.30. The bean
oil, 40¢ lower.
Soft red winter wheat in theDecember up twelve and three
quarters settled at $5.67, andthe hard red at $5.51 and a half
(01:43):
cents a bushel finished 11 and ahalf higher. Mike Zuzlow,
globalcomresearch.com out ofAtchison, Kansas now joins us to
discuss the marketplace. Hi,Mike. Thanks for being with us
today and for recordingcommodity week with us yesterday
too. I appreciate that.
Mike Zuzolo (01:57):
You bet, Todd. Great to be with you.
Todd Gleason (01:59):
Let's start, with what's happening in the
marketplace. There was a bouncein the corn today. Why did that
take place?
Mike Zuzolo (02:06):
Well, I think the big thing that we noticed was
the corn was released from thewheat complex, and it was really
the wheat that had been draggingthe row crops, trying to drag
them lower. In the case of corn,it was succeeding. In the case
of beans, not so much because wehad the products underneath us.
Wheat changed with the crudeoil, and the crude oil and the
(02:27):
dollar seemed to work reallywell together, something we
discussed on the commodity weekprogram this week. That to me,
Todd, is an indication or atleast a strong piece of the
puzzle for this maybe being moreabout demand and versus supply
and weather as far as theturnaround and the fact that
Decor and Nove beans are nowboth inching into those gaps
(02:50):
left from the July 4 holiday.
Another key piece of that wasearlier in this week when we
started to see a little bitbetter headlines on trade,
specifically US Chinanegotiations and the possibility
of the two presidents of thosecountries getting together. It
seemed like to me, this is thethird or fourth time now since
before July 4 that the trade hastried to price in improving
(03:13):
trade mindsets or sentiment, andthat we're gonna get some trade
deals. And so it's a prettycritical weekend like it was
going into the July 4 holiday,both in terms of rainfall and
also the trade negotiations. Sovery similar in my mind to that
three day weekend.
Todd Gleason (03:29):
Now as it happens, Mike, and I did not plan it this
way, but those of thoselisteners who are live and
listening on the air will hearthe last, thing that said is
you, underscoring that you thinkthat possibly the lows have been
put in place, at least, you goon to say temporarily, but that
(03:52):
lows have been put in place. Isuppose that today's trade felt
pretty good too in that case.
Mike Zuzolo (03:58):
Yeah. It really was necessary for the analysis
because if you're gonna go up onweather, you're gonna have a
really sharp rally typically.And and as I said, we talk about
this a lot in the commodity weekprogram that we we really aren't
really getting excited aboutweather yet. Maybe at the very
end of the week, we saw someforecasts suggesting hot and dry
or August outlooks frommeteorologists, but they they
(04:20):
got really burned in July. SoI'm not so sure the trades are
really buying into that.
And so the beans leading theupside, the meal leading the
upside, prices at, you know,anywhere from three close to
three year lows in the case ofthe wheat, nine year lows in the
case of the meal. And then yousee the WASDE report numbers.
Why were we going lower? Was itall just the supply and weather,
(04:41):
or was it negative tradesentiment? So that's kind of
what I'm trying to put together.
Todd Gleason (04:44):
And when you think about that, you really are
looking at the demand side andsaying we've gone low enough and
we're building demand?
Mike Zuzolo (04:52):
Yeah. I think we're holding on to the demand thanks
to the weak dollar and becauseof some of the trade deals that
we have gotten so far. Thetrade, I think, is priced in
some negative demand. And one ofthe comparisons that I like to
look at right now, Todd, iswe're making record highs on
Wall Street. They seem fearlessabout the tariffs, whereas
LaSalle Street is, as I said,working towards lows.
And when you look at the worldsupply demand and you look at
(05:14):
the fact that we got around$3.95 and almost filled the gap
to the downside on the weeklycorn chart last week, you know,
that puts me at about a2,200,000,000.0 bushel carryover
in terms of what I think thetrade is probably trading or
pricing in. So we had plenty ofeither better yield projections
or weakening demand projections,however you wanna look at it. I
(05:35):
I do think there is a windowhere between now and the August
report that if we can get somesolid trade negotiation updates,
and we don't see any, outsidemarket fluctuations, like a
really sharply lower crude oil,sharply higher dollar, we can
come off these lows and maybe dobetter than filling the gap and
breaking through some resistancelevels.
Todd Gleason (05:56):
Yeah. So if that were to happen, you might see
traveling higher, maybe eventhrough harvest, I suppose.
Mike Zuzolo (06:02):
I'm not sure I'd go through harvest. I think a lot
will depend upon what USD givesus for the August yield. I do
think we need to feed the bullsome with some weather, whether
it's Ukrainian weather, orwhether it's US weather in terms
of corn, especially. I still seethe beans as maybe the leader to
the downside because the supplydemand fundamentals minus the
yield. I mean, if we came inwith a lot lower yield in the
(06:24):
soybeans, then I'd have torecalibrate and and refigure
that.
But, my take is this is a a keycrucial step to a low because it
would be a demand low and thatthen theoretically would be like
a thirty, forty degree anglewhere you have higher highs,
higher lows, build trend lines,so on and so forth. And it seems
like this time of the year withthe demand that we have, if we
(06:46):
get trade deals, that would seemlikely or logical at least. But
heavens knows we have not beenlogical in this very much.
Todd Gleason (06:53):
So between now and the USDA report, we'll have, the
August deadline date. Tariffs,maybe some trade deals, you, I
suppose, are telling producersto fulfill their cash needs to
make cash sales once those highssort of come when we get to the
(07:14):
top of the gaps?
Mike Zuzolo (07:15):
Yeah. That's exactly right. I I think one of
the things that we have to dealwith right now in the short term
is do we need to protect ourcrop insurance base price from a
rally at this stage of the game?But you have to balance that
with what you cannot store andwhether your cash basis is good
or bad right now. So I thinkthat's exactly right.
You get above the gaps, or youyou fill the gaps, you test the
(07:35):
resistance levels. If you can'tpush through those resistance
levels before the August WASDEreport, you really wanna start
thinking about what your nextplan is as far as protecting the
downside.
Todd Gleason (07:45):
Thank you very much, and I appreciate you being
on our commodity week program.
Mike Zuzolo (07:48):
Thank you again, Todd. It's great to be with you.
Todd Gleason (07:50):
Mhmm. That is Mike Zusalo. He's at
globalcolumnresearch.com inBatcheson, Kansas. In today's
agricultural news, presidentTrump claims Coca Cola has
agreed to change its recipe andthe corn industry is giving him
an earful. Trump wrote on TrueSocial that Coca Cola executives
(08:12):
have agreed to go Mexican andswitch from high fructose corn
syrup in Coke to cane sugar.
That may be the real thing toTrump who drinks Diet Coke, but
not for the Corn RefinersAssociation and its president
and CEO, John Bodhi.
John Bodie (08:30):
Replacing HFCS with cane sugar would be devastating
blow to thousands ofmanufacturing jobs in American
agriculture, and it woulddepress farm prices, and it
would add to our trade deficitbecause every bit of HFCS that
is replaced with cane sugarwould be imported cane sugar.
Todd Gleason (08:53):
All of that would undermine the president's stance
on farmers, manufacturers, andthe trade deficit. As for the
economic impact on The US cornindustry, Bodhi cited a study by
North Dakota State University.
John Bodie (09:06):
The immediate impact on corn prices nationally would
be 15 to 34¢ per bushel, adevastating blow to American
agriculture. And once again,this tweet was talking about
cane sugar, so there's not anyconsolation for the beet
growers.
Todd Gleason (09:25):
A MAHA commission report in May argued high
fructose corn syrup is a factorin obesity and related diseases,
but a Washington Post story saysscientists say there is little
nutritional difference betweensugar and high fructose corn
syrup. Still unclear fromTrump's comments is just how
much US Coke will be made withcane sugar. The next MAHA
(09:48):
commission report is due out inAugust. Let's stay with the
Trump administration. It saysthere will not be a crackdown on
pesticide use in The UnitedStates.
Politico says that's despite areport from the Make America
Healthy Again committee thatcalled crop protection products
dangerous to people's health.During a recent policy
(10:10):
roundtable in DC, seven out ofthe 10 mentioned how important
pesticides and fertilizers arein modern agricultural
production systems. Agricultureindustry lobbyists have been
pushing back against the MakeAmerica Healthy Again committee
report, which linked pesticidesto cancers and other diseases. A
White House official speakinganonymously says a plan for
(10:33):
acting on that report is due inAugust and will not include new
policies on pesticide use. Andfinally today, there is a
candidate for the chief agnegotiator position at USTR.
Julie Callahan, the assistant UStrade representative for
agricultural affairs andcommodity policy, is President
(10:53):
Trump's nominee for the role ofChief Ag Negotiator. Callahan
has been with the agency since2016, serving as Senior Director
for Agricultural Affairs beforebeing promoted to Deputy USTR
position in 2020. The presidenthas now nominated people to
serve in all USTR deputy roles.And that's a look at today's
(11:16):
agricultural news. Let's turnour attention on this Friday to
the weather.
Eric Snodgrass is here. He'swith Nutrien Ag Solutions and
Agribal Meteorologist. Thank youmuch, Eric, for taking some time
(11:41):
with us. We haven't talked in abit, so maybe we should look
backwards before we lookforwards. How did June and July
play out for you?
Eric Snodgrass (11:51):
Well, I I I guess it's more how did it play
out for everybody else otherthan Illinois? So I don't know
how far your signal reaches,Todd here. I do know you're on
the Internet, so I guess itreaches everywhere. But, man,
these guys in Iowa and Nebraskaare kinda kicking our butts with
really, really good weather.
Todd Gleason (12:09):
I guess they are.
Eric Snodgrass (12:10):
I mean, it's now they've had holes. They've had
they've had some severe weather,but if you look at it on the
whole, they're gonna be settingnew records for the NDVI, the
Normalized Difference VegetationIndex. That's a plant health
indicator from satellite. It'sthe best that they've seen since
2001 when some of these recordsbegan. And then you come over to
(12:30):
Illinois and parts, especiallyNorthern Indiana, and you're
going to start to find someholes in the precipitation over
the last, not just two to threeweeks, but even going back
farther than that.
And so I think you're going tohave some folks that are, you
know, in, let's call it Central,East Central, North Central
Illinois that are just going,gosh. We we missed out on what
everybody else was getting. Nowyou rewind the clock a week ago,
(12:53):
and we watched really heavyrains move into Northern
Illinois. And then over thatsame weekend, you know, I got a
call from Matt Bennett sayingthat he just got he just had a
million dollar rain hit hisstuff down in Southern Illinois.
But, Todd, I don't know aboutyou, but even though we've had
some heavy dew in the morning,we've had some rain come by,
(13:13):
it's a tenth.
It's two tenths of an inch insome spots around here. And we
evaporate that relativelyquickly. To be honest, we need a
good soaker in this area toensure that the crop is going to
just really hit it out of thepark here. So here's the long
story short. It is hard to findexpansive problems in the Corn
Belt right now.
Now that's not talking aboutdisease pressures. I know
(13:34):
there's a lot of folks seeingtar spot and other diseases. But
when it comes to the weather,we've, you know, well, the whole
Corn Belt has got the highest inDVI I've seen since I've been
doing professional weatherforecasting. So that's even
better than 'nine and 'fourteenand some of those years that
were, you know, prettyspectacular. But as you know,
what has also happened since welast talked is the overnight low
(13:57):
temperatures have been prettyhigh.
So you can have a crop thatlooks good from space when
you're staring at, well, reallyjust how much chlorophyll's in
the thing and still have someissues there. And if you go from
East Central Illinois all theway across Indiana and Ohio, the
last month has been like topfive warmest for overnight low
temperatures since recordsbegan, which those began back in
(14:20):
1893. So there's a lot ofdiscussion right now about maybe
what's going on in pollinationwith the crop being a little
stressed, even though it looksgood from the road. And we just
want to know if that's going tobe a factor. Todd, tell me, have
you heard a lot about this, what
Todd Gleason (14:37):
do
Eric Snodgrass (14:37):
they call it? Tight, something about the way
the silk is coming out, thatyours kinda tight not letting it
come out. Have you heard aboutthis?
Todd Gleason (14:46):
I have not.
Eric Snodgrass (14:48):
I have I've had a lot of folks and I I know that
people are gonna be listening tous right now going, come on,
idiots. You know, we all knowwhat this is called. I forgot.
But it's they've had sometrouble with, you know, some of
the process of pollination,specifically with the ear being
kind of tight and the way thatthe silk has been able to get
out. So there's been somesuggestions of that and they're
(15:10):
relating it to hot overnight lowtemperatures.
So that's where we've been and Ineed to look that up and tell
you again so maybe you canmention it on there some other
time but that's been somethingthat's been kinda new for me.
Todd Gleason (15:21):
Yeah. So so the trick the best trick that I know
about pollination at least isonce once you believe
pollination has taken place, ifyou go out and you shuck the air
open Mhmm. If if if all of thatfalls off, every the ones that
are left are not pollinated.
Eric Snodgrass (15:40):
Ah, I didn't know that.
Todd Gleason (15:41):
Right? Yeah. If you flip it upside down and she
all falls off, you've got a cropcoming. That's for sure.
Eric Snodgrass (15:47):
So Very interesting. Yeah.
Todd Gleason (15:49):
Yeah. Yeah. We'll we'll see how that goes.
Speaking of which, crop coming.We'll need that rain.
We need a soaker. Do you seeanything more than just little
dribs and drabs here as thingspass by?
Eric Snodgrass (16:01):
I actually see quite a bit more. So we are
watching a pretty sizable ridgebuild into the first into the
Southeast and moving to theSouthern Plains. We will likely
sit on the periphery of it,giving us these daily chances
for storms. The flow is gonnacome out of the Northwest. There
is moisture in the atmosphere.
No problem with that. And so asa consequence, I think we're
(16:22):
looking more at, you know, a ahot stormy setup. And I do mean
hot. You know, I was justlooking here. Next week by
Wednesday, we're talking aboutheat index values, which again
are pushed upwards because ofthe humidity.
But 110 heat index. Good. Todd,you and I are both going to want
(16:44):
to go back to Wisconsin, wherewe've both recently been, just
to escape, what some of thisheat's gonna look like. So be
prepared for that. The worst ofit's gonna be to our south and
east initially, then south andwest after that.
So we do have some very hotconditions coming through, very
hot overnight low temperatures,but it's gonna storm, and that's
the difference maker. If you canget the storm in, brings in a
(17:06):
little bit of cooler conditionstemporarily, and that could
really help, you know, mitigatesome of the losses due to
excessive heat.
Todd Gleason (17:12):
Alright. Anything else before I let you go for the
day?
Eric Snodgrass (17:14):
I just say watch out for August. I know we're
gonna finish July on a hot note,but I wanna know is that ridge
gonna keep moving to the west?If it does, that could bring in
very favorable August conditionsfor us. However, if the ridge
goes back to, like, Cairo overtoward, you know, Nashville,
we've got a story on our handswhich could be giving on some
(17:35):
late growing season stresses inAugust. And then finally, Todd,
we are gonna have to starttalking at length about the
potential for a fall La Nina,what that could mean for fall
moisture levels and harvest andthen the upcoming winter.
So we're getting through itpretty quick.
Todd Gleason (17:51):
Hey. Thanks much. We'll talk with you again soon.
Eric Snodgrass (17:54):
Yeah. You bet.
Todd Gleason (17:54):
Eric Stodgrass is with Nutrient Ag Solutions.
Dagger will join us on thisFriday edition of the closing
market report that came to youfrom Illinois Public Media. It
is public radio for the farmingworld online on demand at
willag.org. That's willag.0rg.Up next is our commodity week
(18:15):
program.
If you can stay with us, you'llhear all of that program through
the top of the hour. Otherwise,many of these radio stations
will carry it over the weekend.
Jim McCormick (18:30):
Todd Gleason services are made available to
WILL by University of IllinoisExtension.
Todd Gleason (18:36):
Well welcome to Commodity Week, I am Todd
Gleason. Our panelists for theday include Naomi Blooms, at
totalfarmmarketing.com out ofWest Bend, Wisconsin. Jim
McCormick is here atagmarket.net in Barrington,
Illinois. And Mike Zusolo joinsus from globalcomresearch.com in
Atchison, Kansas. Thank you allfor being with us.
(18:56):
I think we'll start with a listof items that we might want to
discuss for the day. MikeSuslow, I'll start with you.
What's on your mind this week?
Mike Zuzolo (19:06):
You know, post July 4 and post WASDE report, we've
seen the market try and lurchtowards a low and wondering
whether this might not be maybea commodity demand low in
general as trade confidencestarts to grow a little bit
more, it seems, Todd. So maybewe want
Todd Gleason (19:24):
to discuss that. Jim McCormick from agmarket.net.
Jim McCormick (19:27):
Well, I know I think a big conversation with
the clients we have is, youknow, this crop is definitely
bigger than trend by mostaccounts. And what are what are
producers gonna do, especiallywith those bushels that they
store, you know, into the fall,and they're gonna have to make a
decision to the pay commercialstorage, dump it, maybe
something they should bethinking about before harvest
ramps up.
Todd Gleason (19:47):
And Naomi Bloom from totalfarmmarketing.com on
your list.
Naomi Blohm (19:51):
Yes. So let's definitely echo, what these two
gentlemen have said and talkingabout getting ready for what
marketplace might bring for thenext month for the grains. And
then also looking at cattlemarket a little bit, we've got a
cattle on feed and cattleinventory next week report next
Friday. So we want to gear upand get ready for that.
Todd Gleason (20:12):
Okay, let's start Mike with you. Post WASDE in
July, what are thepossibilities, and I have
started to ask this questionfrom time to time, that a
contract low in corn madeearlier in this week might be an
actual low. Can this marketplaceclimb higher through the harvest
(20:33):
season? And what would be inplace that would cause such a
thing to happen?
Mike Zuzolo (20:38):
Yeah. My take right now, Todd, is it's not likely
that it's gonna continue all theway through the harvest season.
I I think what I would belooking at is to get back up to
a value level. First stop wouldbe those gaps left over from the
July 4 holiday around 04:33 inDecor and $10.44 plus and Nove
beans. Get those gaps filled andthen see if we've got some trade
(21:02):
deals done.
And in specific trade dealsrelated to agriculture, I'd like
to hear what Naomi and Jim haveto say about this as well. But
the two major things I'm hearingon LaSalle Street or anyone
affiliated with ag commoditiesis I'm not going to buy if I'm
an investor fund. I'm not goingto cover shorts if I'm an
investor fund. And I'm not goingto buy out if I'm an end user
(21:25):
commercial because of the factthat we don't have enough
details in these trade deals.Agriculture has been a sticking
point with Japan, with SouthKorea, with India.
And so the trade, very nervous.But I also would say clients
have been calling in saying, doI need to protect my crop
insurance base price at thispoint, in case we get a decent
(21:46):
price action that can give us aretracement in this in this
market. And the USDA WASDEnumbers kept demand at least the
same or better worldwide, andwe're still getting tighter and
tighter on corn and wheatsupplies. And while, yes, we've
got a big crop coming on here inthe August report and most
likely going to get biggeryields, My price model would say
(22:09):
at the 3.95 corn price, we're ata 2,200,000,000.0 bushel crop
anyway at this stage. So I'mgoing to say it this way.
I think the demand low could bein if we continue to get some
good news in the next week ortwo by the end of the this
month. And that as long as wedon't take out four zero seven
and a half and nine eighty eighta quarter, those are our our
(22:31):
July 14 lows. I'm gonna say alow is in at this point.
Todd Gleason (22:35):
That's Mike Zuzolo. He's at
globalcommresearch.com out ofAtchison, Kansas. Joined us on
our commodity week program alongwith Naomi Bloom of
totalfarmmarketing.com. She's inWest Bend, Wisconsin. And Jim
McCormick out of Barrington,Illinois and agmarket.net.
You may hear the whole of thatprogram up on our website right
(22:56):
now at willag.org. That'swillag.0rg. The closing market
report and commodity week areproductions of Illinois Public
Media and University of IllinoisExtension. You have a great
afternoon. I'm Todd Gleason.
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