July 22, 2025 • 23 mins
- Naomi Blohm, TotalFarmMarketing.com
- Brad Zwilling, ILLINOIS FBFM
- Don Day, DayWeather.com
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Todd Gleason (00:00):
From the land to Grant University in Urbana
Champaign, Illinois. This is theclosing market report for the
July. I'm extension's ToddGleason. Coming up, we'll talk
about the commodity markets withNaomi Bloem. We'll hear from
Brad Zwilling about an articlehe's written for the Farm Doc
Daily website as it pertains tothe cross structures on
(00:22):
different sized farms across thestate, and then we'll turn our
attention to the weather as wewrap things up.
We'll do that with Dundee at DayWeather on this Tuesday edition
of the closing market reportfrom Illinois Public Media. Two
things of note as we get startedfor the day. First, president
Trump has successfully lobbiedCoca Cola to provide more cane
(00:45):
sugar based Coke in The UnitedStates as opposed to Coke that
used sweetener from corn. Andthe second is that coming up
tomorrow, I'll be out of theoffice and will provide a
special excerpt from the one bigbeautiful bill act farm bill
webinar that the PharmDoc teamhosted last week. You definitely
(01:07):
will want to pay attention toit.
Todd Gleason services are madeavailable to WILL by University
of Illinois Extension. Decembercorn for the day settled at
$4.18, down four and a quarter.The March at four thirty five
and three quarters, four lowerfor the day. August beans at ten
ten and a quarter, four andthree quarters lower. November
down a half at $10.25 and ahalf, and bean meal futures were
(01:30):
up $3.30 in the lead.
Bean oil down 44¢. Soft redwinter wheat, six and a quarter
higher, settled in the Decemberat $5.69 and a half, and the
hard red December at $5.55, upsix and three quarters of a
cent. Live cattle futures down50¢. Feeders up 67 and a half
cents, and lean hogs 47 and ahalf cents higher, 400 pounds on
(01:54):
this Tuesday afternoon. NaomiBlohm from total farm marketing
dot com out of West Bend,Wisconsin now joins us to take a
look at the marketplace.
Hi, Naomi. Thank you for beingwith us. Why don't you give me
your assessment of the day'strade in Chicago first, and what
you're thinking about the restof the week?
Naomi Blohm (02:13):
Yeah. So markets today for corn and soybeans
finishing a little bit lowerafter almost filling the gap
last week, Friday, and themarket had been pushing higher
last week on weather concerns.But then as we came into trade
Sunday night and Monday, theforecast shifted. I mean, it's
still gonna be hot out there,but there is, cooler
temperatures on the horizon, sothat's what the market chose to
(02:35):
focus on today. So, for the restof this week, probably seeing
some sideways range trade as wego forward because we're still
waiting to really see andunderstand where this crop is.
But when you look at the cropprogress reports from yesterday
afternoon, corn at 74% good toexcellent, same as the prior
week, but that still is up from67% a year ago. And beans at 68%
(03:01):
good to excellent, while it wasdown two points from the prior
week, is still matching where wewere a year ago at this time. So
looking probably, like I said, aholding pattern here for grain
prices until we just really geta better handle on yield and
yield potential and additionalweather for August going
forward.
Todd Gleason (03:20):
Are the producers you're talking with satisfied
they have a good crop in theground?
Naomi Blohm (03:25):
Yeah, primarily there is no complaining
happening. Definitely whispersthough of some potential
production issues in terms ofthe pollination factor on some
of those yield varieties outthere. There's also whispers of,
tar spots on some corn fields aswell. So those are things to be
(03:46):
watching for. But overall, withthe weather being mostly
cooperative this entire growingseason with timely rains, we're
still under the impression of abig record crop.
And so I feel though like themarketplace, for the moment, has
put a pause on suggesting thatyield is gonna be bigger than
one eighty four or one eightyfive until proven otherwise. And
(04:09):
that's why corn prices for theDecember contract did not go
below $4. But at the same time,fundamentally right now, we
don't really have a reason toget above $4.30 either on the
board price. So, I'm feelinglike we're going into that
sideways fashion. If yield endsup being closer to 184 or 185, I
(04:29):
do feel that that is a reasonwhy December futures could go
below $4 and probably closer to$3.75.
But if there is starting to bemore of a concrete agreement
that yield is actually closer tothe current USDA number of one
eighty one, well, that's areason for corn prices to stay
near the $4.30 area, maybe go uptowards $4.50, just because the
(04:51):
demand still is so fantastic forcorn, and that would put the
USDA carryout that we have rightnow of the 1.66 as more of a
friendly factor. But again,that's correlating with one
eighty one yield, so that's whatwe're keeping an eye on.
Todd Gleason (05:06):
When do you suppose if trade agreements are
not announced, the trade willtake notice of Canada, Mexico,
and the EU, our largest tradingpartners, and potential
increased tariffs?
Naomi Blohm (05:18):
Well, I would say that if if we don't see any
positive traction on trade andtrade agreements as it returns
to US agriculture exports, thatis a reason why grain prices
could then just continue toslide lower and continue with a
seasonal sell off where corn andsoybean prices oftentimes just
grind lower into mid to lateAugust. So that's what I wonder
(05:43):
might come to fruition if wedon't get some positive trade
deal news. But when you keep aneye on the US dollar, that
continues ultimately to trendlower. We're trading near 97
right now, and as that dollardoes trend lower, of course,
that'll be supportive forexports as it pertains to
currency exchange rates. So acouple different facets going on
(06:05):
there to be monitoring betweenexports and export demand, but
you're right.
I mean, those trade deals are socritical, and especially for
soybeans and soybean exportdemand, that's the last missing
piece of the puzzle as we also,of course, continue to balance
that with August weather andyield potential.
Todd Gleason (06:23):
And then finally, turn your attention to the
upcoming cattle, reports thatare due out Friday this week.
What do we know about them andtrade expectations?
Naomi Blohm (06:32):
Yeah. Heading into that pre report expectations for
the cattle on feed report, onfeed number expected average
number of 99.1%, placementnumber at 98%, and the marketed
number, the average estimate,96.2%. And the range of
estimates heading into thisreport is actually tight.
(06:52):
Previously, there had been alittle bit wider and a wider
range of estimates, but nowwe're starting to hone in on
some more specific numbers. Soin addition to the cattle on
feed report, it is also a veryimportant cattle inventory
report where we're gonna reallysee a breakdown of different
levels of upcoming production,different numbers of cattle and
(07:15):
size of different points of theherd, and we're gonna be wanting
to see if there's any evidenceof heifer retention.
Are we holding heifers back forbreeding? And that report, these
two reports that came out onFriday afternoon, really could
set the next big cornerstone forthe industry. It's either gonna
be a reason where if we seefriendly news, we see the market
(07:36):
be ready to take the next leghigher, or if we start to see
signs that the herd is startingto grow, that might be the
reason for funds to finallystart to exit this massive long
position that they have, whichcould then weigh on market
prices. So be ready for Fridayafternoon, two reports for the
cattle market.
Todd Gleason (07:57):
Thank you much, Naomi.
Naomi Blohm (07:58):
Thank you.
Todd Gleason (07:59):
Naomi Bloom is with totalfarmmarketing.com.
You're listening to the closingmarket report from Illinois
Public Media. It's public radiofor the farming world. Have you
checked out our calendar? Thereare a whole series of things
this week and next week that youmay very well want to attend.
(08:22):
They begin tomorrow with theUniversity of Illinois Extension
field day in Mouth, Illinois.That's near Galesburg. You'll
wanna check that out if you'rein that area. All the details
online in the calendar. OnThursday, there'll be another
field day.
This one in Hewing, Illinois,and that's for those of you
South Of Mount Vernon or in thatarea. And then on Friday of this
(08:46):
week, the Hemp Research OpenHouse happens on campus. Check
out the details for that one. Itruns from eight a. To four p.
M. On Friday right here on theUrbana Champaign campus of the
University of Illinois. Now nextweek, there are a couple of
online webinars you will want toattend. The first one is the
Empowering Illinois SoybeanProducers Harnessing Climate
(09:10):
Tools webinar. This is sponsoredby the United Soybean Board and
done in conjunction with theMidwest Regional Climate Center,
Illinois Extension, IllinoisState Water Survey, and of
course, the Illinois SoybeanAssociation.
They'll be discussing of coursesome USB funded projects,
discovering some ag climatedecision support tools that are
(09:31):
already available to you,demoing a new ag climate tool
dashboard, and they'll tell youhow to assess soybean production
decision needs. The first 25registrants get $350 so you'll
want to register for this one.It is a Zoom meeting you can do
that online. Look for theregistration information in the
(09:56):
Empowering Illinois SoybeanProducers Harnessing Climate
Tools webinar on Wednesday, July30. That's next week.
And on the thirty first,there'll be another PharmDoc
webinar, this one, about the taxchanges included in the OBBBA.
That's the one big beautifulbill act. There's a wide ranging
(10:19):
set of tax provisions in thatact from permanent bonus
depreciation and expandedsection 179 deductions and new
agricultural payment limits andreal estate loan incentives. You
can learn about all of thosealong with Bob Rang and myself.
That'll be on Thursday of nextweek, a farm doc webinar.
(10:40):
Check it out in the calendar atwillag.0rg. I'm University of
Illinois Extension's TutGleason. We're now joined by
Brad Zwilling from IllinoisFBFM. That's the Farm Business
(11:03):
Farm Management RecordkeepingAssociation in the state. Thanks
for being with us.
You've written an article Ithink producers will find of
interest exploring how farm sizebased off the FBFM records
affects crop and equipment costin the state. There is a long
(11:24):
standing background informationthat says the bigger you are,
the cheaper things get as itrelates to both equipment and
inputs. I assume that's why youdecided to explore the data.
Brad Zwilling (11:38):
That's right, Todd. Thank you very much. Yeah.
The you always hear that as youget bigger, things are cheaper.
So I kinda broke it down justusing the last four years, and
then I'm taking average of anaverage.
Right? So we got each grouping.And, looking at those and see
how those change from a groupof, you know, 1,200 to 2,000 all
the way up to a group over 4,000acres and broke that out by the
(12:01):
different regions of the state,North, central, and south, and
just to see what what's goingon. And I I picked a few things
just right now, crop costs andequipment costs, but I think
we'll look at some more down theroad. I think this is an
interesting study, but I wannawith those because those are the
things that, the mostmanageable, you know, on a farm,
besides the, you know, some ofthe cash rent and some of those
(12:22):
things.
But these are some of the bigcost, structures on a farming
operation.
Todd Gleason (12:26):
Were you surprised that the data showed regional
differences in the state?
Brad Zwilling (12:30):
I was. But, you know, thinking about some of the
things we have a little bitdifferent typing of, you know,
how the leasing costs are andkind of the crop rotations are
different and, you know, morewheat in Southern Illinois. So I
think that was some of that, butit it just didn't some of it
didn't make sense why they weredifferent for different things.
(12:51):
But I think that had somethingto do with it, all those
different factors, impactingthose.
Todd Gleason (12:55):
Now I'm gonna take you through all three regions,
northern, central, and southern.We'll explore, the same sets in
all three, and then as we wrapup, maybe we should talk about
the differences again. So whatwere the things that you looked
at and start in NorthernIllinois and how that broke out?
Brad Zwilling (13:13):
Yeah. So we're looking at Northern Illinois and
and just to back up, we arelooking at these are accrual
costs. So this is the true costfor the crop year. And when
we're looking at this, when welooked at crop costs and just
looking at those numbers, youknow, fertilizer, we didn't see
much variance across those firstthree groups, but then we did
(13:33):
see it drop off for the lessthan 4,000 acres. And then
pesticides, kind of was goingdown the entire time as each
group, As the acres went up, ourpesticide costs went down.
And then seed costs, when welooked at that, lot of not a lot
of variance in those first threegroupings, but did drop off than
that less than, or over than4,000 acres. When we look at the
(13:55):
power and equipment costs, we'relooking at repairs, machine
hire, fuel and oil, andmachinery depreciation. And, you
know, the one that, threw me fora loop, the first thing is just
looking at machinerydepreciation. It increased a
little bit from the smallsmaller two groups and then
started decreasing off once wegot over 3,000 acres, and that's
gonna depend on your power unitsand where those justifications
(14:17):
are. I think where that's comingfrom.
And then looking at fuel andoil, not much variance there.
Machine hire, not much variancethere either. And then, machine
repairs, we did see that,increase slightly up to that
4,000 acre group and thendecrease off over that group. So
lots of differences going on inthere. They're not you can't
(14:39):
just pick one cost and say,yeah.
This follows the same trend forall those different costs that
we are looking at.
Todd Gleason (14:45):
In Northern Illinois, and I don't know
whether this holds true, itappears that if you're under
2,000 acres, those costs arelower, generally speaking, than
those that are between two andthree thousand acres. Did that
surprise you?
Brad Zwilling (15:00):
It did. And that and it just, you know, I can't
and like I said, I can't fathomwhat the difference is. I mean,
these are primarily grain farmsin Illinois, in Northern Group.
So, it did surprise me, andthat's why I try to do a four
year moving average or a fouryear moving average or four year
average just to kinda get rid ofthe year over year things. And
it did surprise me.
Todd Gleason (15:20):
Yeah. So that that held for Northern Illinois.
However Mhmm. Central AndSouthern Illinois, those two
costs were declining as you gota little bigger, but again, the
spread between all of them isn'treally that big. What's what's
the area that has the widestspread between the lowest number
(15:40):
and the highest number for thetotal, and maybe we should use
the inputs at this point.
It looks like maybe in NorthernIllinois, it's what, $40 or $42
something along those lines forthe input cost. But only, what,
$3 in Central Illinois? I mean,So just just some big
(16:04):
differences. And I guess you'retelling me that part of that is
because they their croprotations are different in
Northern Illinois. They have alot more corn on corn.
Brad Zwilling (16:13):
Yeah. They grow a lot more corn on corn. They have
a you know, it's more like a60%, instead of a fifty fifty
more in Central Illinois, sixtyforty versus that. So, and
there's a little bit morelivestock up there too. So, you
know, they've got the place toinput that feed into.
Right? There's some livestockoperations they can, sell that
corn off directly to.
Todd Gleason (16:31):
Were there much difference in the machinery cost
from one part of the region tothe other in the state?
Brad Zwilling (16:36):
Yeah. It was, you know, the cost structures. You
know, Central Illinois, youknow, we look at those things,
and I'm gonna look at just powerand equipment strictly. You
know, that increased. You know,we went from a 180 to $1.95 in
Central Illinois.
And then in South, we that onedid increase a little bit, about
(16:58):
$5 an acre. That was surprisingto me that it kinda just stayed
about the same, but itincreased. And then when we look
at the Northern Illinois group,that one, like I said, it
dropped off a lot when we wentfrom that 3,000 to 4,000 acre to
the 4,000 acre group. We'retalking, you know, not a little
over $10 an acre. So that thatsurprised me only looking just
at machinery depreciation there,but even in the whole piece, we
(17:21):
went off about, 10 to $15 there.
So that was a big jump or a bigdecrease on that group on the
power and equipment.
Todd Gleason (17:28):
Again, the power and equipment, Central Illinois
is interesting because therange, at the bottom for acres
was about a $180, but under2,000, up to a $195 an acre if
you're over 4,000. But it wasthe sweet spot appeared to be
between 2 and 3,000 acres, at a$168. So if you said a $180 for
(17:51):
the smallest part, a $170 forthose 2 to 3,000. And I was
surprised that it costs so darnmuch if you were over 4,000
acres. Do you do you know why?
And that was $1.95. That's a $35increase over the over the sweet
spot area.
Brad Zwilling (18:08):
Yeah. And I think there's something that's going
on there a little bit that youdon't see is that when we say
over 4,000, that's a huge range.Right? That's 4,000 up to
whatever the the max would be.And and I will tell you the
Central Illinois farms are atheir average acres are lower
than the North and the centralor north and the south group.
Central Illinois farms havetypically had our smaller
(18:30):
groups, and, it's justinteresting to see that group.
And so it could be just the factwhere that where that average
was. And like I said, is it thethird combine? Is it the fourth
combine? Where is that in therange?
When is that next power unitthere not be able to directly
spread it over the acres too? Ithink that has something to do
with it. I don't have anystatistical information on it,
(18:53):
but just me looking at that andkinda understanding that there's
a machinery economics fast toolthat kinda looks at that. You
know? You can see how many acresthere is for one those power
units, and that's an interestingpiece.
I've seen that when runningthose, numbers through those
little tools on the fast, fasttools through the PharmDoc
website.
Todd Gleason (19:10):
Yeah. That's on the fast tools portion of the
PharmDoc website. I take it thateven if you're not in the FBFM
record keeping system, you thinkthis is worthwhile for producers
to come take a quick look at andtry to understand where they fit
within their region, and then,decide whether they need to
adjust things for their ownfarms.
Brad Zwilling (19:31):
Yeah. I think good to look at, get some
information on, you know, wherethey would fit, look at their
bench you know, kind ofbenchmark it in essence as you
would say, but then look at yourown farming, your own
operations, what you've gotgoing on because, you know, this
is an average of a group offarms. And so you don't know
what's going on to each one ofthose groups. We know that
they're in that area. We knowthat they're grain farms.
(19:52):
We know what the acre size is,but there's a lot of other
pieces going around. Sounderstand that the differences
are here, and then take a lookat yours and so you can better
understand what's going on inyour operation. This was kind of
a gee whiz. Take a look, andlet's make sure we're analyzing
that as we look at differentthings.
Todd Gleason (20:08):
Thanks much. I appreciate it, Brad.
Brad Zwilling (20:10):
Thank you very much, Todd.
Todd Gleason (20:11):
Brad Zwilling is with Illinois FBFM. You may read
the article he's written for theFarm Doc Daily website. Look for
it at willag.org. The title isHow farm size affects crop and
equipment costs in Illinois. Ourtheme is written, performed,
(20:34):
produced in courtesy of LoganCounty, Illinois farmer, Tim
Gleason.
You're listening to the closingmarket report from Illinois
Public Media online atwillag.org willag.0rg. Now let's
turn our attention to theweather forecast. Dundee from
(20:55):
Day Weather in Cheyenne, Wyominghas this update.
Don Day (20:59):
A dominating and large area of high pressure at the
lower and upper levels acrossthe South Central United States
will dominate the weather acrossThe United States over the next
seven days. This high pressureridge will bring hot, dry
conditions to the South CentralUS, parts of Texas, Oklahoma,
Kansas, maybe Missouri, andArkansas. But around the
periphery of the high pressureridge, as moisture rotates
(21:23):
around the high in a clockwisefashion, we're gonna get a ring
of thunderstorms that will formpretty much daily across the
Dakotas, Nebraska, Iowa,Southern Minnesota, Wisconsin,
and into portions of CentralNorthern Illinois and Indiana
into Ohio. This ring of fire, wecall it, will keep those areas
(21:43):
wet with frequent episodes ofshowers and thunderstorms, while
just about all of the CentralAnd Eastern United States will
have above average temperatures.But the hottest temperatures
relative to the thirty yearaverage will be underneath the
high in Texas, parts of SouthernMissouri, Arkansas, and Eastern
areas of Kansas and Oklahoma.
(22:03):
The heat will be centered in theCentral And Eastern United
States, while temperatures willactually remain below average
and will continue that way asit's been for most of the summer
in the Far West along the coastof California into the Pacific
Northwest.
Todd Gleason (22:18):
That's Don Day. He's with Day Weather out of
Cheyenne, Wyoming, gave us aforecast for this Tuesday
afternoon edition of the closingmarket report that came to you
from Illinois Public Media. Thisis public radio for the farming
world online on demand anytimeyou'd like to listen at
willag.org. Tomorrow, I'll beout of the office. We'll run a
portion, an excerpt from the onebig beautiful bill act farm bill
(22:43):
update from the PharmDoc teamwebinar that took place last
Tuesday.
It's really interesting. You'llwant to tune in for that and to
hear how the One Big BeautifulBill Act has changed the crop
insurance and the AARCAN PLCdecisions that will take place
going forward and the paymentstructure more importantly.
(23:03):
That's tomorrow during theclosing market report right here
on Illinois Public Media. I'mTodd Gleason.
From the land to Grant University in Urbana
Champaign, Illinois. This is theclosing market report for the
July. I'm extension's ToddGleason. Coming up, we'll talk
about the commodity markets withNaomi Bloem. We'll hear from
Brad Zwilling about an articlehe's written for the Farm Doc
Daily website as it pertains tothe cross structures on
(00:22):
different sized farms across thestate, and then we'll turn our
attention to the weather as wewrap things up.
We'll do that with Dundee at DayWeather on this Tuesday edition
of the closing market reportfrom Illinois Public Media. Two
things of note as we get startedfor the day. First, president
Trump has successfully lobbiedCoca Cola to provide more cane
(00:45):
sugar based Coke in The UnitedStates as opposed to Coke that
used sweetener from corn. Andthe second is that coming up
tomorrow, I'll be out of theoffice and will provide a
special excerpt from the one bigbeautiful bill act farm bill
webinar that the PharmDoc teamhosted last week. You definitely
(01:07):
will want to pay attention toit.
Todd Gleason services are madeavailable to WILL by University
of Illinois Extension. Decembercorn for the day settled at
$4.18, down four and a quarter.The March at four thirty five
and three quarters, four lowerfor the day. August beans at ten
ten and a quarter, four andthree quarters lower. November
down a half at $10.25 and ahalf, and bean meal futures were
(01:30):
up $3.30 in the lead.
Bean oil down 44¢. Soft redwinter wheat, six and a quarter
higher, settled in the Decemberat $5.69 and a half, and the
hard red December at $5.55, upsix and three quarters of a
cent. Live cattle futures down50¢. Feeders up 67 and a half
cents, and lean hogs 47 and ahalf cents higher, 400 pounds on
(01:54):
this Tuesday afternoon. NaomiBlohm from total farm marketing
dot com out of West Bend,Wisconsin now joins us to take a
look at the marketplace.
Hi, Naomi. Thank you for beingwith us. Why don't you give me
your assessment of the day'strade in Chicago first, and what
you're thinking about the restof the week?
Naomi Blohm (02:13):
Yeah. So markets today for corn and soybeans
finishing a little bit lowerafter almost filling the gap
last week, Friday, and themarket had been pushing higher
last week on weather concerns.But then as we came into trade
Sunday night and Monday, theforecast shifted. I mean, it's
still gonna be hot out there,but there is, cooler
temperatures on the horizon, sothat's what the market chose to
(02:35):
focus on today. So, for the restof this week, probably seeing
some sideways range trade as wego forward because we're still
waiting to really see andunderstand where this crop is.
But when you look at the cropprogress reports from yesterday
afternoon, corn at 74% good toexcellent, same as the prior
week, but that still is up from67% a year ago. And beans at 68%
(03:01):
good to excellent, while it wasdown two points from the prior
week, is still matching where wewere a year ago at this time. So
looking probably, like I said, aholding pattern here for grain
prices until we just really geta better handle on yield and
yield potential and additionalweather for August going
forward.
Todd Gleason (03:20):
Are the producers you're talking with satisfied
they have a good crop in theground?
Naomi Blohm (03:25):
Yeah, primarily there is no complaining
happening. Definitely whispersthough of some potential
production issues in terms ofthe pollination factor on some
of those yield varieties outthere. There's also whispers of,
tar spots on some corn fields aswell. So those are things to be
(03:46):
watching for. But overall, withthe weather being mostly
cooperative this entire growingseason with timely rains, we're
still under the impression of abig record crop.
And so I feel though like themarketplace, for the moment, has
put a pause on suggesting thatyield is gonna be bigger than
one eighty four or one eightyfive until proven otherwise. And
(04:09):
that's why corn prices for theDecember contract did not go
below $4. But at the same time,fundamentally right now, we
don't really have a reason toget above $4.30 either on the
board price. So, I'm feelinglike we're going into that
sideways fashion. If yield endsup being closer to 184 or 185, I
(04:29):
do feel that that is a reasonwhy December futures could go
below $4 and probably closer to$3.75.
But if there is starting to bemore of a concrete agreement
that yield is actually closer tothe current USDA number of one
eighty one, well, that's areason for corn prices to stay
near the $4.30 area, maybe go uptowards $4.50, just because the
(04:51):
demand still is so fantastic forcorn, and that would put the
USDA carryout that we have rightnow of the 1.66 as more of a
friendly factor. But again,that's correlating with one
eighty one yield, so that's whatwe're keeping an eye on.
Todd Gleason (05:06):
When do you suppose if trade agreements are
not announced, the trade willtake notice of Canada, Mexico,
and the EU, our largest tradingpartners, and potential
increased tariffs?
Naomi Blohm (05:18):
Well, I would say that if if we don't see any
positive traction on trade andtrade agreements as it returns
to US agriculture exports, thatis a reason why grain prices
could then just continue toslide lower and continue with a
seasonal sell off where corn andsoybean prices oftentimes just
grind lower into mid to lateAugust. So that's what I wonder
(05:43):
might come to fruition if wedon't get some positive trade
deal news. But when you keep aneye on the US dollar, that
continues ultimately to trendlower. We're trading near 97
right now, and as that dollardoes trend lower, of course,
that'll be supportive forexports as it pertains to
currency exchange rates. So acouple different facets going on
(06:05):
there to be monitoring betweenexports and export demand, but
you're right.
I mean, those trade deals are socritical, and especially for
soybeans and soybean exportdemand, that's the last missing
piece of the puzzle as we also,of course, continue to balance
that with August weather andyield potential.
Todd Gleason (06:23):
And then finally, turn your attention to the
upcoming cattle, reports thatare due out Friday this week.
What do we know about them andtrade expectations?
Naomi Blohm (06:32):
Yeah. Heading into that pre report expectations for
the cattle on feed report, onfeed number expected average
number of 99.1%, placementnumber at 98%, and the marketed
number, the average estimate,96.2%. And the range of
estimates heading into thisreport is actually tight.
(06:52):
Previously, there had been alittle bit wider and a wider
range of estimates, but nowwe're starting to hone in on
some more specific numbers. Soin addition to the cattle on
feed report, it is also a veryimportant cattle inventory
report where we're gonna reallysee a breakdown of different
levels of upcoming production,different numbers of cattle and
(07:15):
size of different points of theherd, and we're gonna be wanting
to see if there's any evidenceof heifer retention.
Are we holding heifers back forbreeding? And that report, these
two reports that came out onFriday afternoon, really could
set the next big cornerstone forthe industry. It's either gonna
be a reason where if we seefriendly news, we see the market
(07:36):
be ready to take the next leghigher, or if we start to see
signs that the herd is startingto grow, that might be the
reason for funds to finallystart to exit this massive long
position that they have, whichcould then weigh on market
prices. So be ready for Fridayafternoon, two reports for the
cattle market.
Todd Gleason (07:57):
Thank you much, Naomi.
Naomi Blohm (07:58):
Thank you.
Todd Gleason (07:59):
Naomi Bloom is with totalfarmmarketing.com.
You're listening to the closingmarket report from Illinois
Public Media. It's public radiofor the farming world. Have you
checked out our calendar? Thereare a whole series of things
this week and next week that youmay very well want to attend.
(08:22):
They begin tomorrow with theUniversity of Illinois Extension
field day in Mouth, Illinois.That's near Galesburg. You'll
wanna check that out if you'rein that area. All the details
online in the calendar. OnThursday, there'll be another
field day.
This one in Hewing, Illinois,and that's for those of you
South Of Mount Vernon or in thatarea. And then on Friday of this
(08:46):
week, the Hemp Research OpenHouse happens on campus. Check
out the details for that one. Itruns from eight a. To four p.
M. On Friday right here on theUrbana Champaign campus of the
University of Illinois. Now nextweek, there are a couple of
online webinars you will want toattend. The first one is the
Empowering Illinois SoybeanProducers Harnessing Climate
(09:10):
Tools webinar. This is sponsoredby the United Soybean Board and
done in conjunction with theMidwest Regional Climate Center,
Illinois Extension, IllinoisState Water Survey, and of
course, the Illinois SoybeanAssociation.
They'll be discussing of coursesome USB funded projects,
discovering some ag climatedecision support tools that are
(09:31):
already available to you,demoing a new ag climate tool
dashboard, and they'll tell youhow to assess soybean production
decision needs. The first 25registrants get $350 so you'll
want to register for this one.It is a Zoom meeting you can do
that online. Look for theregistration information in the
(09:56):
Empowering Illinois SoybeanProducers Harnessing Climate
Tools webinar on Wednesday, July30. That's next week.
And on the thirty first,there'll be another PharmDoc
webinar, this one, about the taxchanges included in the OBBBA.
That's the one big beautifulbill act. There's a wide ranging
(10:19):
set of tax provisions in thatact from permanent bonus
depreciation and expandedsection 179 deductions and new
agricultural payment limits andreal estate loan incentives. You
can learn about all of thosealong with Bob Rang and myself.
That'll be on Thursday of nextweek, a farm doc webinar.
(10:40):
Check it out in the calendar atwillag.0rg. I'm University of
Illinois Extension's TutGleason. We're now joined by
Brad Zwilling from IllinoisFBFM. That's the Farm Business
(11:03):
Farm Management RecordkeepingAssociation in the state. Thanks
for being with us.
You've written an article Ithink producers will find of
interest exploring how farm sizebased off the FBFM records
affects crop and equipment costin the state. There is a long
(11:24):
standing background informationthat says the bigger you are,
the cheaper things get as itrelates to both equipment and
inputs. I assume that's why youdecided to explore the data.
Brad Zwilling (11:38):
That's right, Todd. Thank you very much. Yeah.
The you always hear that as youget bigger, things are cheaper.
So I kinda broke it down justusing the last four years, and
then I'm taking average of anaverage.
Right? So we got each grouping.And, looking at those and see
how those change from a groupof, you know, 1,200 to 2,000 all
the way up to a group over 4,000acres and broke that out by the
(12:01):
different regions of the state,North, central, and south, and
just to see what what's goingon. And I I picked a few things
just right now, crop costs andequipment costs, but I think
we'll look at some more down theroad. I think this is an
interesting study, but I wannawith those because those are the
things that, the mostmanageable, you know, on a farm,
besides the, you know, some ofthe cash rent and some of those
(12:22):
things.
But these are some of the bigcost, structures on a farming
operation.
Todd Gleason (12:26):
Were you surprised that the data showed regional
differences in the state?
Brad Zwilling (12:30):
I was. But, you know, thinking about some of the
things we have a little bitdifferent typing of, you know,
how the leasing costs are andkind of the crop rotations are
different and, you know, morewheat in Southern Illinois. So I
think that was some of that, butit it just didn't some of it
didn't make sense why they weredifferent for different things.
(12:51):
But I think that had somethingto do with it, all those
different factors, impactingthose.
Todd Gleason (12:55):
Now I'm gonna take you through all three regions,
northern, central, and southern.We'll explore, the same sets in
all three, and then as we wrapup, maybe we should talk about
the differences again. So whatwere the things that you looked
at and start in NorthernIllinois and how that broke out?
Brad Zwilling (13:13):
Yeah. So we're looking at Northern Illinois and
and just to back up, we arelooking at these are accrual
costs. So this is the true costfor the crop year. And when
we're looking at this, when welooked at crop costs and just
looking at those numbers, youknow, fertilizer, we didn't see
much variance across those firstthree groups, but then we did
(13:33):
see it drop off for the lessthan 4,000 acres. And then
pesticides, kind of was goingdown the entire time as each
group, As the acres went up, ourpesticide costs went down.
And then seed costs, when welooked at that, lot of not a lot
of variance in those first threegroupings, but did drop off than
that less than, or over than4,000 acres. When we look at the
(13:55):
power and equipment costs, we'relooking at repairs, machine
hire, fuel and oil, andmachinery depreciation. And, you
know, the one that, threw me fora loop, the first thing is just
looking at machinerydepreciation. It increased a
little bit from the smallsmaller two groups and then
started decreasing off once wegot over 3,000 acres, and that's
gonna depend on your power unitsand where those justifications
(14:17):
are. I think where that's comingfrom.
And then looking at fuel andoil, not much variance there.
Machine hire, not much variancethere either. And then, machine
repairs, we did see that,increase slightly up to that
4,000 acre group and thendecrease off over that group. So
lots of differences going on inthere. They're not you can't
(14:39):
just pick one cost and say,yeah.
This follows the same trend forall those different costs that
we are looking at.
Todd Gleason (14:45):
In Northern Illinois, and I don't know
whether this holds true, itappears that if you're under
2,000 acres, those costs arelower, generally speaking, than
those that are between two andthree thousand acres. Did that
surprise you?
Brad Zwilling (15:00):
It did. And that and it just, you know, I can't
and like I said, I can't fathomwhat the difference is. I mean,
these are primarily grain farmsin Illinois, in Northern Group.
So, it did surprise me, andthat's why I try to do a four
year moving average or a fouryear moving average or four year
average just to kinda get rid ofthe year over year things. And
it did surprise me.
Todd Gleason (15:20):
Yeah. So that that held for Northern Illinois.
However Mhmm. Central AndSouthern Illinois, those two
costs were declining as you gota little bigger, but again, the
spread between all of them isn'treally that big. What's what's
the area that has the widestspread between the lowest number
(15:40):
and the highest number for thetotal, and maybe we should use
the inputs at this point.
It looks like maybe in NorthernIllinois, it's what, $40 or $42
something along those lines forthe input cost. But only, what,
$3 in Central Illinois? I mean,So just just some big
(16:04):
differences. And I guess you'retelling me that part of that is
because they their croprotations are different in
Northern Illinois. They have alot more corn on corn.
Brad Zwilling (16:13):
Yeah. They grow a lot more corn on corn. They have
a you know, it's more like a60%, instead of a fifty fifty
more in Central Illinois, sixtyforty versus that. So, and
there's a little bit morelivestock up there too. So, you
know, they've got the place toinput that feed into.
Right? There's some livestockoperations they can, sell that
corn off directly to.
Todd Gleason (16:31):
Were there much difference in the machinery cost
from one part of the region tothe other in the state?
Brad Zwilling (16:36):
Yeah. It was, you know, the cost structures. You
know, Central Illinois, youknow, we look at those things,
and I'm gonna look at just powerand equipment strictly. You
know, that increased. You know,we went from a 180 to $1.95 in
Central Illinois.
And then in South, we that onedid increase a little bit, about
(16:58):
$5 an acre. That was surprisingto me that it kinda just stayed
about the same, but itincreased. And then when we look
at the Northern Illinois group,that one, like I said, it
dropped off a lot when we wentfrom that 3,000 to 4,000 acre to
the 4,000 acre group. We'retalking, you know, not a little
over $10 an acre. So that thatsurprised me only looking just
at machinery depreciation there,but even in the whole piece, we
(17:21):
went off about, 10 to $15 there.
So that was a big jump or a bigdecrease on that group on the
power and equipment.
Todd Gleason (17:28):
Again, the power and equipment, Central Illinois
is interesting because therange, at the bottom for acres
was about a $180, but under2,000, up to a $195 an acre if
you're over 4,000. But it wasthe sweet spot appeared to be
between 2 and 3,000 acres, at a$168. So if you said a $180 for
(17:51):
the smallest part, a $170 forthose 2 to 3,000. And I was
surprised that it costs so darnmuch if you were over 4,000
acres. Do you do you know why?
And that was $1.95. That's a $35increase over the over the sweet
spot area.
Brad Zwilling (18:08):
Yeah. And I think there's something that's going
on there a little bit that youdon't see is that when we say
over 4,000, that's a huge range.Right? That's 4,000 up to
whatever the the max would be.And and I will tell you the
Central Illinois farms are atheir average acres are lower
than the North and the centralor north and the south group.
Central Illinois farms havetypically had our smaller
(18:30):
groups, and, it's justinteresting to see that group.
And so it could be just the factwhere that where that average
was. And like I said, is it thethird combine? Is it the fourth
combine? Where is that in therange?
When is that next power unitthere not be able to directly
spread it over the acres too? Ithink that has something to do
with it. I don't have anystatistical information on it,
(18:53):
but just me looking at that andkinda understanding that there's
a machinery economics fast toolthat kinda looks at that. You
know? You can see how many acresthere is for one those power
units, and that's an interestingpiece.
I've seen that when runningthose, numbers through those
little tools on the fast, fasttools through the PharmDoc
website.
Todd Gleason (19:10):
Yeah. That's on the fast tools portion of the
PharmDoc website. I take it thateven if you're not in the FBFM
record keeping system, you thinkthis is worthwhile for producers
to come take a quick look at andtry to understand where they fit
within their region, and then,decide whether they need to
adjust things for their ownfarms.
Brad Zwilling (19:31):
Yeah. I think good to look at, get some
information on, you know, wherethey would fit, look at their
bench you know, kind ofbenchmark it in essence as you
would say, but then look at yourown farming, your own
operations, what you've gotgoing on because, you know, this
is an average of a group offarms. And so you don't know
what's going on to each one ofthose groups. We know that
they're in that area. We knowthat they're grain farms.
(19:52):
We know what the acre size is,but there's a lot of other
pieces going around. Sounderstand that the differences
are here, and then take a lookat yours and so you can better
understand what's going on inyour operation. This was kind of
a gee whiz. Take a look, andlet's make sure we're analyzing
that as we look at differentthings.
Todd Gleason (20:08):
Thanks much. I appreciate it, Brad.
Brad Zwilling (20:10):
Thank you very much, Todd.
Todd Gleason (20:11):
Brad Zwilling is with Illinois FBFM. You may read
the article he's written for theFarm Doc Daily website. Look for
it at willag.org. The title isHow farm size affects crop and
equipment costs in Illinois. Ourtheme is written, performed,
(20:34):
produced in courtesy of LoganCounty, Illinois farmer, Tim
Gleason.
You're listening to the closingmarket report from Illinois
Public Media online atwillag.org willag.0rg. Now let's
turn our attention to theweather forecast. Dundee from
(20:55):
Day Weather in Cheyenne, Wyominghas this update.
Don Day (20:59):
A dominating and large area of high pressure at the
lower and upper levels acrossthe South Central United States
will dominate the weather acrossThe United States over the next
seven days. This high pressureridge will bring hot, dry
conditions to the South CentralUS, parts of Texas, Oklahoma,
Kansas, maybe Missouri, andArkansas. But around the
periphery of the high pressureridge, as moisture rotates
(21:23):
around the high in a clockwisefashion, we're gonna get a ring
of thunderstorms that will formpretty much daily across the
Dakotas, Nebraska, Iowa,Southern Minnesota, Wisconsin,
and into portions of CentralNorthern Illinois and Indiana
into Ohio. This ring of fire, wecall it, will keep those areas
(21:43):
wet with frequent episodes ofshowers and thunderstorms, while
just about all of the CentralAnd Eastern United States will
have above average temperatures.But the hottest temperatures
relative to the thirty yearaverage will be underneath the
high in Texas, parts of SouthernMissouri, Arkansas, and Eastern
areas of Kansas and Oklahoma.
(22:03):
The heat will be centered in theCentral And Eastern United
States, while temperatures willactually remain below average
and will continue that way asit's been for most of the summer
in the Far West along the coastof California into the Pacific
Northwest.
Todd Gleason (22:18):
That's Don Day. He's with Day Weather out of
Cheyenne, Wyoming, gave us aforecast for this Tuesday
afternoon edition of the closingmarket report that came to you
from Illinois Public Media. Thisis public radio for the farming
world online on demand anytimeyou'd like to listen at
willag.org. Tomorrow, I'll beout of the office. We'll run a
portion, an excerpt from the onebig beautiful bill act farm bill
(22:43):
update from the PharmDoc teamwebinar that took place last
Tuesday.
It's really interesting. You'llwant to tune in for that and to
hear how the One Big BeautifulBill Act has changed the crop
insurance and the AARCAN PLCdecisions that will take place
going forward and the paymentstructure more importantly.
(23:03):
That's tomorrow during theclosing market report right here
on Illinois Public Media. I'mTodd Gleason.
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