July 24, 2025 • 23 mins
- Matt Bennett, AgMarket.net
- Austin Pearson, Midwest Regional Climate Center
(your chance to earn $350)
- Mike Tannura, Tstorm.net
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Todd Gleason (00:00):
From the land grant university in Urbana
Champaign, Illinois. This is theclosing market report. It is the
July. I'm extension's ToddGleason. Coming up, we'll talk
about the commodity markets withMatt Bennett.
We'll preview next week's USB.That's the United Soybean Board
funded climate tools webinarwhere you, if you sign up right
(00:21):
away, may very well be able toearn $350. And we'll talk about
the weather forecast too. We'lldo that with Mike Tenora at T
Storm Weather on this Thursdayedition of the closing market
report from Illinois PublicMedia.
announcer (00:35):
Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by
University of IllinoisExtension.
Todd Gleason (00:40):
September corn for the day at four zero one and
three quarters that finishedthree and a quarter higher.
December at four twenty andthree quarters up three and a
quarter. And the March at fourthirty eight and a quarter,
three and a half higher. Augustbeans a penny and a half lower
at $10.04 and a quarter.November 1024 and a quarter, up
a penny and a half for the day.
Bean meal down two dollarsthirty cents. The bean oil, 53¢
(01:02):
higher. Soft red winter wheat,unchanged at $5.61 and a
quarter. The hard red at $5.49and three quarters, up three and
three quarters. Both of those inthe December contract.
Live cattle futures, a buck 35lower for the day. The feeder
cattle at $3.28 90, down $2.62and a half, and lean hogs were
up 20¢ at $91.10. Crude oil, 84¢a barrel at $66.07. And the
(01:29):
wholesale price of gasoline,about a penny and a tenth lower
at $2.07 and a half cents. MattBennett from agmarket.net is
here now to take a look at themarketplace.
Hi, Matt. Thank you for beingwith us today.
Matt Bennett (01:41):
Yeah. Absolutely. Thanks for having me, Todd.
Todd Gleason (01:42):
It's been another interesting week in the
commodity markets. Lots ofattention, of course, on trade
agreements and what they reallymean for agriculture. Ben Brown
told us earlier in the week, ageconomist from Missouri, that
they're probably actually wereincluded in Indonesia and maybe
some other places, someagreements on actual deliveries
(02:06):
of commodities to some of thesedifferent nations. However, the
marketplace hasn't reallyreacted. What have you been
watching most closely this week?
Matt Bennett (02:16):
You know, I he he's right. I mean, there's a
lot of whispers as to whatexactly has been agreed to.
First of all, none of us knowfor sure there's not been
official announcements on someof these agreements. You know,
they came out this morning andsaid that you know, supposedly
something had been put togetherwith China, you know, and and
(02:36):
that they're very close to thatbeing done. I mean, we've heard
that multiple times But what arewe watching?
Of course, we're watching theweather. The interesting thing,
Todd, is of course, a lot offolks just continue to get a lot
of rainfall. We're hearing fromseveral growers in Iowa that are
saying they're going backwardsat this point because they've
just had too much rain. And so,you know, several of our brokers
(02:57):
in Iowa have actually said, youknow, they had another entry in
Eddyville, Iowa last night andthey said we didn't need it. We
didn't want it but we got it andso, typically, you're not going
to hurt a crop by too much rainbut you know, there's places in
Iowa that in the last month havehad, you know, 15 inches of
rain.
So, it'll be very interesting tokind of see how the trade views
(03:18):
that moving forward but I thinkhow people view it right now is
just simply crop ratings. Youknow, you got 74% good to
excellent on corn, 68% good toexcellent on soybeans. And so at
this stage of the game, it'shot. They think that this heat
might break sometime here nextweek. But if we were to come in
on Sunday night, there's nodoubt if the forecast said, hey,
(03:39):
actually this is going to kindstick around for a little while.
Maybe limit some of the rainfallin some areas. You know, then I
think that maybe the trade couldget a little bit excited. It was
just a year ago that a hot anddry August directly impacted
yields, moisture contents, youname it. We shaved some bushels
off this crop. But what are wetrading right now, Todd?
Probably a one eighty four, oneeighty five on corn. So, yeah,
(04:03):
it'll be pretty interesting kindof see how the month of August
goes Without a weather issue,Todd, I have a hard time
believing this currenttrajectory will change.
Todd Gleason (04:10):
Eddyville, Iowa, of course, located to the South
and East of Des Moines. It'shome of a plant that produces
high fructose corn syrup. Isuppose they're a little
concerned maybe in that area,particularly as it relates to
what Coca Cola might be up towith its products and some
switch to cane sugar rather thancorn syrup. The tray didn't
(04:35):
really make too much of thateither because it it is makes up
a small amount of total usage ofthe corn, though it is of
concern to some extent,particularly as basis is related
around the Eddyville area.Speaking of basis, I suppose
you've been watching that.
There will be some producers whostill need to market corn. What
has basis done going into ADMDecatur?
Matt Bennett (04:57):
Yeah. In ADM Decatur, actually, there is a
push for corn July 28, I believethrough around the fourth or
fifth. We're actually hearing apretty decent pop, whereas I
believe their current postedbids around 18 over. It sounds
like that they'll go 35 over,you know, for that particular
time frame and so, there's nodoubt that some of these end
(05:20):
users are probably run a littlemore snug than maybe what they
prefer, you know, and so withthat the case, you know, I think
they're trying to get a hold ofa few of these bushels and try
to pry them out of the farmer'shands. And of course, basis is
having to do the work because,you know, you look at these
prices and clearly there are nohome run versus some of the
prices we've seen before.
(05:41):
But jeez, Todd, if you go backto last fall, yeah, there was a
lot of $3.5 corn sold. So if agrower is able to step in here
and get $4.3 of course, you'regonna have to pay to get it
there, but that's not a terribleprice. I don't know that you can
expect anything a whole lotbetter than that. And so last
thing I'll say on that basis,DPO, you know, of course, you
(06:02):
get east of us and it's stilljust hotter than a firecracker
trying to get bushels pulled outto the East Coast. And that
certainly, in my opinion, isprobably filtered into us
somewhat to get us all the wayto a level where they'll pay,
you know, like a 35 over typebasis.
Again, I don't know that that'sposted. I just know that that
was quoted directly to me today.So, you know, with that being
(06:24):
the case, we gotta remember thatwe're running out of time. So,
you know, Delta, they'll beharvesting corn within the next
month, you know, and probably inthe next three weeks. So that's
certainly gonna be a a situationwhere they'll be able to satisfy
some of these export demands,you know, and and you'll
probably, see basis kind of backoff once you get a little bit of
harvest going.
Todd Gleason (06:44):
I haven't spent much time with the soybeans for
the better part of a month. Whatshould I be concerned about
there today?
Matt Bennett (06:50):
Yeah. Mean, soybeans are directly gonna be
impacted by what happens up hereon the weather. I mean, yeah,
ten, twenty five beans arenothing to write home about. I
get it. A dry August and youcould probably tack a dollar on
that bean market.
I don't wanna be bullish though.You know, the thing is I wanna
look at this as, hey, if mothernature does give us even a
weather scare, I mean, I don'twant anybody's yields being hurt
(07:11):
by any means but if she gives usa weather scare scare and we
come in here, you know, and tackon 50¢ to a dollar on the
market, I think a person has tohave some resting offers out
there. It is my opinion that ifwe have, you know, just a normal
August, maybe one rain, tworains. My opinion, most of
growers listening to this aregoing to be looking at a fairly
(07:33):
nice bean crop. I mean, we'vegot tons of growth, flowered
really well.
Of course, I think most growershave decided on fungicide. I
know it's an additional cost,but trying to protect every
bushel we can at this stage ofthe game. I think you could be
looking at some awfully saltybean yields. So I think it's
very important for a grower toupdate, hey, what is my, most
(07:54):
realistic, guesstimate as far asproduction's concerned? And then
see where that puts my breakevenbecause that's the best way to
spread per acre cost out on yourfarms to add yield.
And I think we've got a reallygood shot of having above APH
yields here, especially inCentral Illinois.
Todd Gleason (08:08):
Thank you much, Matt.
Matt Bennett (08:09):
Absolutely. Thank you, Todd.
Todd Gleason (08:11):
That is Matt Bennett. He is with
agmarket.net. Just oneagricultural news item for the
day. US secretary of agricultureBrooke Rollins has announced the
reorganization of the UnitedStates Department of
Agriculture, refocusing itscore, she says, on operations to
(08:33):
better align with its foundingmission of supporting American
farming, ranching, and forestry.USDA notes that over the last
four years, USDA's workforcegrew by about 8% and employee
salaries increased 14 and a halfpercent.
The secretary notes that theUSDA's footprint in the National
(08:54):
Capital Region is underutilized.On that note, they expect the
reorganization to consist offour pillars. First, to ensure
the size of USDA's workforcealigns with the available
financial resources andagricultural priorities. Second,
to bring USDA closer to itscustomers. Third, to eliminate
(09:14):
management layers andbureaucracy.
And finally, to consolidateredundant support functions. The
department currently hasapproximately 4,600 employees
within the National CapitalRegion. It expects no more than
2,000 employees will remain inthat region after the
reorganization is complete. USDAsays it will vacate and return
(09:39):
to the government's GeneralServices Administration, the
South Building, Braddock Place,and the Beltsville Agricultural
Research Center and revisitutilization and functions of the
USDA Witten Building. It will dothe same with the Yates Building
and the National AgriculturalLibrary.
The George Washington CarverCenter will also be utilized
(10:02):
until space optimizationactivities are complete. These
buildings, they say, have abacklog of costly deferred
maintenance and are currentlyoccupied below the minimum set
by law. USDA will concentratefederal employees in five
different locations across thenation rather than DC. These
(10:24):
include Raleigh, North Carolina,Kansas City, Missouri,
Indianapolis, Indiana, FortCollins, Colorado, and Salt
Lake, Utah. We're now joined byAustin Pearson.
(10:47):
He's a climatologist with theMidwest Regional Climate Center.
He's based on the Purdue campusin Lafayette. Hi, Austin. Thank
you very much. You're here todaybecause you want to offer 350 up
to producers, farmers, andpeople who sign up for a virtual
look at the way you do businessto some extent.
(11:09):
Tell me about it, please.
Austin Pearson (11:10):
Yeah. So here at the Midwestern Regional Climate
Center, we received a grant fromthe United Soybean Board to
release an ag climate dashboard.It's a digital resource designed
to provide farmers with currentclimate and agricultural
information in a singlelocation. So, what this platform
does is it brings together realtime weather updates, national
weather service forecasts, alsotools for pest alerts and crop
(11:34):
growth tracking. So having thesetools in a centralized location,
it helps farmers make managementdecisions more as they're more
informed and efficient in thatmanner.
We had some workshops back in2023 to gather input from
farmers about all the differentclimate tools and resources that
(11:55):
are available. One of thebiggest complaints was that they
have to go to several differentsites to find this information.
So putting them into acentralized location can help
them expedite their decisionprocess when making farm
management decisions. We've gottools on there that look at
monitoring growing degree daysfrom a user specified plant date
(12:17):
and then also tracking pestrisk, for different locations. I
know alfalfa weevil was a bigissue earlier in the season, and
so people were able to use,tools from the Iowa
Environmental Mesonet that nowwe have, pointed to in this
dashboard, they can utilize thatto expedite their pest
(12:40):
management decision earlier inthe season, and stuff like that.
So what what this dashboard isgonna allow us to do is is
streamline access to tools,freely available tools for
producers across the Midwest tohelp them, make their decisions
on their farm.
Todd Gleason (13:00):
How is it that farmers can participate in this
process of maybe developing thetools?
Austin Pearson (13:05):
Yeah. So on Wednesday, July 30 from 9AM to
12PM central time, we are goingto be hosting a virtual workshop
that is funded by the UnitedSoybean Board. The Midwestern
Regional Climate Center combinedwith Illinois Extension as well
as Trent Ford, the stateclimatologist, we're gonna host
(13:27):
that virtual workshop. We'regonna gather feedback on the
dashboard and just general dataneeds and decision support needs
that farmers and advisors needto help streamline their
decisions throughout and outsideof the growing season. So by
participating in the workshop,your feedback will help guide
(13:49):
the development of the nextgeneration of weather weather
tools that we include in thedashboard, And then also develop
real world needs and just tofind out real world needs of
what users are are desperatelyneeding for that.
And and to to top it off, thefirst 25 people who register get
(14:10):
a $350 stipend for justparticipating. And so, you know,
it it it's really easy to to dothat and and get paid for your
opinions.
Todd Gleason (14:21):
Oh, that's fantastic. Is there anything
else we should know?
Austin Pearson (14:24):
Here's what we're gonna do during the
workshop. We're gonna take a ahard look at the, dashboard.
We're gonna get information fromyou all and the usability and
different tools that are inthat. And then we'll also get,
some information from you all onthe data needs for soybean
(14:45):
production, and not just soybeanproduction, just row crop
production in the Midwest ingeneral. So we're hoping to get
as much feedback on thedashboard, but also assessing,
the needs of the industry movingforward.
Todd Gleason (14:59):
Okay. There are a couple of ways that folks can
sign up or at least, ways thatthey, confine to sign up. One of
them is if you are subscribed tothe Crop Central email from the
University of Illinois. You'vealready seen an article on that.
It'll probably pop up in thenext couple of days as well, and
you'll be able to sign updirectly from that email.
You can go to willag.org,willag.0rg, as the articles that
(15:24):
are posted to Crop Central arethere, and you'll be looking for
the article about empowering,Illinois soybean producers. And
just as a reminder, this issponsored by the United Soybean
Board along with the MidwesternRegional Climate Center,
Illinois Extension, IllinoisState Water Survey, and the
Illinois Soybean Association.I'm sure they have a way to sign
(15:47):
up there as well, but it'sprobably easiest if you're
listening to WILL and theclosing market report to sign up
at willag.org. And the first 25that sign up will receive an
honorarium of $350. Don't wait.
Do it right now. Thank you,Austin, for being with us. I
appreciate it.
Austin Pearson (16:07):
Thank you, sir.
Todd Gleason (16:08):
That's Austin Pearson. He is a climatologist
with the Midwest RegionalClimate Center based on the
Purdue campus in Lafayette,Indiana. Let's check-in on the
(16:31):
global growing regions with MikeTanure. He's the president and
CEO of tStorm Weather. That'ststorm.net online.
Hello, Mike. Thanks for beingwith us. Let's start with soil
moisture conditions across theMidwest as we move into this hot
time frame. We'll discuss thatin a moment. But first, how are
(16:53):
we set up to move into it?
Mike Tannura (16:55):
Well, there's a couple of different ways to look
at it, but we'll start out withour proprietary data. And what
we're going to talk about is theamount of US corn that was drier
than normal over the last thirtydays. This gives some indication
of where we are today relativeto other years. Our dataset goes
back to 2011, so we have 15growing seasons of data to look
(17:17):
at on a daily basis. And if welook at where we were as of
yesterday, which was day number76 since half of the corn crop
was planted, only about 10% ofUS corn was drier than normal
over this thirty day period, Andthat's the lowest value going
all the way back to 2011, whichmeans it goes back even further
(17:38):
than that.
We just don't have the exactyear. But it gives you some
indication that conditions rightnow are not dry. We have either
adequate ideal or surplus soilmoisture for The US corn crop.
There is another way to look atit too, which might be maybe a
little simpler, but not quite asscientific and doesn't quite
provide the background as much.But if we look at the amount of
(17:59):
rain that fell in the sevenstate Corn Belt in the month of
June and then look atunofficially what's happened so
far in July and kinda take itforward through next week to get
an idea of how we're going toend up, it very likely is going
to be the wettest June and Julyin The US Corn Belt since 2018.
2018 will have been a little bitwetter, but we will have been
(18:20):
one of the wetter here onrecord. And actually, let me
take that back, the wettestsince 2016, not 2018. But it
gives you some idea here thatwe're in a wet growing season.
And, you know, typically, cropslike that as long as you don't
get too much.
Todd Gleason (18:35):
Now tell me a bit more about that. We'll start
with the heat that we're in themidst of. What does that mean
for the crop, do you think, andhow much heat will we really
have over this set of few days?
Mike Tannura (18:46):
Well, it's going to be pretty hot for the next
five, six, seven days in most ofthe Central US, but not all of
it. People to the West Of TheMississippi River are going to
be pretty nice today andtomorrow with highs only in the
eighties and lows in thesixties, so really no big deal
there. If you're East Of TheMississippi River, that's where
it's going to be hot, especiallyIllinois and points east through
Indiana and Ohio. Highs in thenineties, lows in the mid
(19:09):
seventies, maybe even around 80at times. So that's pretty warm
for this time of the year.
And certainly, crops don't likethat. They would like to have
cool weather this time of theyear. So that's kind of the one
piece of the story that hasn'tbeen super ideal that it has
been warm at times, but we needto keep in mind a couple of
things, Todd. If you look attemperatures over the last
(19:29):
thirty days for US corn, kindlike we talked about earlier,
they're not all that impressivebecause we've only been around
one and a half degrees warmerthan normal. That number was
much higher several weeks agodue to a lot of heat at the
June.
But heat at the June, I think wetalked about it on your show,
that's not really something tobe super concerned about because
(19:50):
corn is still growing, soybeansare still growing, they're not
super sensitive yet, and thatwarm weather helps them to get
going. You get heat now andthat's where it's a different
story. You don't really want tosee that. So there certainly
will be some stress from thisover the next five, six, seven
days. But the other things tokeep in mind are, number one,
it's not dry.
So that is going to be helpingout with the crop when it gets
(20:13):
affected by the heat. On top ofthat, there's more rain out
there. We're going to seethunderstorms in all different
parts of The US over the nextfive to seven days. That's
partially a function of thatheat. You put a hot atmosphere
on top of a wet soil thatcreates an unstable air mass and
then any little perturbationmoving through the Central US
will trigger thunderstormclusters.
(20:33):
That's going to be the case inIllinois and in Indiana over the
next three to four or five days.Only until a big cool frog moves
through does it end. Todd,that's the other thing we need
to talk about. There's an idealsetup coming up next week for
cool weather. So we're going tosee temperatures drop all the
way into the 70s for highs withlows in the 50s, maybe even some
(20:56):
40s in Michigan and Wisconsin ona day or two late next week.
And that is ideal for craftdevelopment. So, you know, you
put all this together. We don'thave everything quite figured
out yet, but if that coolpattern next week were to last,
then all of a sudden, you haveto really start thinking about
where these yields are going.
Todd Gleason (21:12):
On that note, what do you suppose the odds are that
the cooler weather might lastinto August?
Mike Tannura (21:19):
Well, it's certainly going to turn pretty
cool in August, at least in thefirst few days of it because of
that front that comes throughnext week. That'll start out in
the northern growing areas onTuesday, and then it'll slide
through the rest of the CentralUS on Wednesday and Thursday. So
when we talk again right nownext week, it'll be a lot cooler
with, again, highs in theseventies and lows mostly in the
fifties. After a few days ofpretty ideal temperatures, we
(21:42):
can see that it is going to warmup, but the warm up doesn't look
super strong. There's stillgoing to be cool fronts passing
to our north, and one or two ofthose will probably sink
southward at some point in timewithin the first five to ten
days of August.
So in the end, temperatures willprobably end up being normal or
maybe even a little bit coolerthan normal to open up the first
seven to ten days of August. Sothat'll be a really key thing to
(22:04):
watch because if it were to staycool for that period of time and
then last, that's a nice recipefor corn and soybean
development. And if it were toturn hot, that would be a
different story. So we need towatch those temperatures pretty
closely starting here next week.
Todd Gleason (22:17):
Hey. Thank you much, Mike. I appreciate it.
Sure thing, Todd. That's MikeTenora.
He is the CEO and president of tstorm weather at tstorm.net
online. You've been listening tothe closing market report on
this Thursday afternoon. FromIllinois public media, it is
public radio for the farmingworld. We'll record our
commodity week program latertoday, and you'll find that up
(22:39):
online at willag.org. Nottonight because I'll include
some information from Joe Jensenthat'll be recorded tomorrow
afternoon, but you'll be able tohear it on our home station, the
full program tomorrow during theclosing market report hour at
02:00.
And then, of course, on many ofthese radio stations over the
weekend, then it'll be up before02:00 at willag.org. Thank you
(23:03):
for listening to agriculturalprogramming from Illinois Public
Media. I'm Extension's ToddGleason.
From the land grant university in Urbana
Champaign, Illinois. This is theclosing market report. It is the
July. I'm extension's ToddGleason. Coming up, we'll talk
about the commodity markets withMatt Bennett.
We'll preview next week's USB.That's the United Soybean Board
funded climate tools webinarwhere you, if you sign up right
(00:21):
away, may very well be able toearn $350. And we'll talk about
the weather forecast too. We'lldo that with Mike Tenora at T
Storm Weather on this Thursdayedition of the closing market
report from Illinois PublicMedia.
announcer (00:35):
Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by
University of IllinoisExtension.
Todd Gleason (00:40):
September corn for the day at four zero one and
three quarters that finishedthree and a quarter higher.
December at four twenty andthree quarters up three and a
quarter. And the March at fourthirty eight and a quarter,
three and a half higher. Augustbeans a penny and a half lower
at $10.04 and a quarter.November 1024 and a quarter, up
a penny and a half for the day.
Bean meal down two dollarsthirty cents. The bean oil, 53¢
(01:02):
higher. Soft red winter wheat,unchanged at $5.61 and a
quarter. The hard red at $5.49and three quarters, up three and
three quarters. Both of those inthe December contract.
Live cattle futures, a buck 35lower for the day. The feeder
cattle at $3.28 90, down $2.62and a half, and lean hogs were
up 20¢ at $91.10. Crude oil, 84¢a barrel at $66.07. And the
(01:29):
wholesale price of gasoline,about a penny and a tenth lower
at $2.07 and a half cents. MattBennett from agmarket.net is
here now to take a look at themarketplace.
Hi, Matt. Thank you for beingwith us today.
Matt Bennett (01:41):
Yeah. Absolutely. Thanks for having me, Todd.
Todd Gleason (01:42):
It's been another interesting week in the
commodity markets. Lots ofattention, of course, on trade
agreements and what they reallymean for agriculture. Ben Brown
told us earlier in the week, ageconomist from Missouri, that
they're probably actually wereincluded in Indonesia and maybe
some other places, someagreements on actual deliveries
(02:06):
of commodities to some of thesedifferent nations. However, the
marketplace hasn't reallyreacted. What have you been
watching most closely this week?
Matt Bennett (02:16):
You know, I he he's right. I mean, there's a
lot of whispers as to whatexactly has been agreed to.
First of all, none of us knowfor sure there's not been
official announcements on someof these agreements. You know,
they came out this morning andsaid that you know, supposedly
something had been put togetherwith China, you know, and and
(02:36):
that they're very close to thatbeing done. I mean, we've heard
that multiple times But what arewe watching?
Of course, we're watching theweather. The interesting thing,
Todd, is of course, a lot offolks just continue to get a lot
of rainfall. We're hearing fromseveral growers in Iowa that are
saying they're going backwardsat this point because they've
just had too much rain. And so,you know, several of our brokers
(02:57):
in Iowa have actually said, youknow, they had another entry in
Eddyville, Iowa last night andthey said we didn't need it. We
didn't want it but we got it andso, typically, you're not going
to hurt a crop by too much rainbut you know, there's places in
Iowa that in the last month havehad, you know, 15 inches of
rain.
So, it'll be very interesting tokind of see how the trade views
(03:18):
that moving forward but I thinkhow people view it right now is
just simply crop ratings. Youknow, you got 74% good to
excellent on corn, 68% good toexcellent on soybeans. And so at
this stage of the game, it'shot. They think that this heat
might break sometime here nextweek. But if we were to come in
on Sunday night, there's nodoubt if the forecast said, hey,
(03:39):
actually this is going to kindstick around for a little while.
Maybe limit some of the rainfallin some areas. You know, then I
think that maybe the trade couldget a little bit excited. It was
just a year ago that a hot anddry August directly impacted
yields, moisture contents, youname it. We shaved some bushels
off this crop. But what are wetrading right now, Todd?
Probably a one eighty four, oneeighty five on corn. So, yeah,
(04:03):
it'll be pretty interesting kindof see how the month of August
goes Without a weather issue,Todd, I have a hard time
believing this currenttrajectory will change.
Todd Gleason (04:10):
Eddyville, Iowa, of course, located to the South
and East of Des Moines. It'shome of a plant that produces
high fructose corn syrup. Isuppose they're a little
concerned maybe in that area,particularly as it relates to
what Coca Cola might be up towith its products and some
switch to cane sugar rather thancorn syrup. The tray didn't
(04:35):
really make too much of thateither because it it is makes up
a small amount of total usage ofthe corn, though it is of
concern to some extent,particularly as basis is related
around the Eddyville area.Speaking of basis, I suppose
you've been watching that.
There will be some producers whostill need to market corn. What
has basis done going into ADMDecatur?
Matt Bennett (04:57):
Yeah. In ADM Decatur, actually, there is a
push for corn July 28, I believethrough around the fourth or
fifth. We're actually hearing apretty decent pop, whereas I
believe their current postedbids around 18 over. It sounds
like that they'll go 35 over,you know, for that particular
time frame and so, there's nodoubt that some of these end
(05:20):
users are probably run a littlemore snug than maybe what they
prefer, you know, and so withthat the case, you know, I think
they're trying to get a hold ofa few of these bushels and try
to pry them out of the farmer'shands. And of course, basis is
having to do the work because,you know, you look at these
prices and clearly there are nohome run versus some of the
prices we've seen before.
(05:41):
But jeez, Todd, if you go backto last fall, yeah, there was a
lot of $3.5 corn sold. So if agrower is able to step in here
and get $4.3 of course, you'regonna have to pay to get it
there, but that's not a terribleprice. I don't know that you can
expect anything a whole lotbetter than that. And so last
thing I'll say on that basis,DPO, you know, of course, you
(06:02):
get east of us and it's stilljust hotter than a firecracker
trying to get bushels pulled outto the East Coast. And that
certainly, in my opinion, isprobably filtered into us
somewhat to get us all the wayto a level where they'll pay,
you know, like a 35 over typebasis.
Again, I don't know that that'sposted. I just know that that
was quoted directly to me today.So, you know, with that being
(06:24):
the case, we gotta remember thatwe're running out of time. So,
you know, Delta, they'll beharvesting corn within the next
month, you know, and probably inthe next three weeks. So that's
certainly gonna be a a situationwhere they'll be able to satisfy
some of these export demands,you know, and and you'll
probably, see basis kind of backoff once you get a little bit of
harvest going.
Todd Gleason (06:44):
I haven't spent much time with the soybeans for
the better part of a month. Whatshould I be concerned about
there today?
Matt Bennett (06:50):
Yeah. Mean, soybeans are directly gonna be
impacted by what happens up hereon the weather. I mean, yeah,
ten, twenty five beans arenothing to write home about. I
get it. A dry August and youcould probably tack a dollar on
that bean market.
I don't wanna be bullish though.You know, the thing is I wanna
look at this as, hey, if mothernature does give us even a
weather scare, I mean, I don'twant anybody's yields being hurt
(07:11):
by any means but if she gives usa weather scare scare and we
come in here, you know, and tackon 50¢ to a dollar on the
market, I think a person has tohave some resting offers out
there. It is my opinion that ifwe have, you know, just a normal
August, maybe one rain, tworains. My opinion, most of
growers listening to this aregoing to be looking at a fairly
(07:33):
nice bean crop. I mean, we'vegot tons of growth, flowered
really well.
Of course, I think most growershave decided on fungicide. I
know it's an additional cost,but trying to protect every
bushel we can at this stage ofthe game. I think you could be
looking at some awfully saltybean yields. So I think it's
very important for a grower toupdate, hey, what is my, most
(07:54):
realistic, guesstimate as far asproduction's concerned? And then
see where that puts my breakevenbecause that's the best way to
spread per acre cost out on yourfarms to add yield.
And I think we've got a reallygood shot of having above APH
yields here, especially inCentral Illinois.
Todd Gleason (08:08):
Thank you much, Matt.
Matt Bennett (08:09):
Absolutely. Thank you, Todd.
Todd Gleason (08:11):
That is Matt Bennett. He is with
agmarket.net. Just oneagricultural news item for the
day. US secretary of agricultureBrooke Rollins has announced the
reorganization of the UnitedStates Department of
Agriculture, refocusing itscore, she says, on operations to
(08:33):
better align with its foundingmission of supporting American
farming, ranching, and forestry.USDA notes that over the last
four years, USDA's workforcegrew by about 8% and employee
salaries increased 14 and a halfpercent.
The secretary notes that theUSDA's footprint in the National
(08:54):
Capital Region is underutilized.On that note, they expect the
reorganization to consist offour pillars. First, to ensure
the size of USDA's workforcealigns with the available
financial resources andagricultural priorities. Second,
to bring USDA closer to itscustomers. Third, to eliminate
(09:14):
management layers andbureaucracy.
And finally, to consolidateredundant support functions. The
department currently hasapproximately 4,600 employees
within the National CapitalRegion. It expects no more than
2,000 employees will remain inthat region after the
reorganization is complete. USDAsays it will vacate and return
(09:39):
to the government's GeneralServices Administration, the
South Building, Braddock Place,and the Beltsville Agricultural
Research Center and revisitutilization and functions of the
USDA Witten Building. It will dothe same with the Yates Building
and the National AgriculturalLibrary.
The George Washington CarverCenter will also be utilized
(10:02):
until space optimizationactivities are complete. These
buildings, they say, have abacklog of costly deferred
maintenance and are currentlyoccupied below the minimum set
by law. USDA will concentratefederal employees in five
different locations across thenation rather than DC. These
(10:24):
include Raleigh, North Carolina,Kansas City, Missouri,
Indianapolis, Indiana, FortCollins, Colorado, and Salt
Lake, Utah. We're now joined byAustin Pearson.
(10:47):
He's a climatologist with theMidwest Regional Climate Center.
He's based on the Purdue campusin Lafayette. Hi, Austin. Thank
you very much. You're here todaybecause you want to offer 350 up
to producers, farmers, andpeople who sign up for a virtual
look at the way you do businessto some extent.
(11:09):
Tell me about it, please.
Austin Pearson (11:10):
Yeah. So here at the Midwestern Regional Climate
Center, we received a grant fromthe United Soybean Board to
release an ag climate dashboard.It's a digital resource designed
to provide farmers with currentclimate and agricultural
information in a singlelocation. So, what this platform
does is it brings together realtime weather updates, national
weather service forecasts, alsotools for pest alerts and crop
(11:34):
growth tracking. So having thesetools in a centralized location,
it helps farmers make managementdecisions more as they're more
informed and efficient in thatmanner.
We had some workshops back in2023 to gather input from
farmers about all the differentclimate tools and resources that
(11:55):
are available. One of thebiggest complaints was that they
have to go to several differentsites to find this information.
So putting them into acentralized location can help
them expedite their decisionprocess when making farm
management decisions. We've gottools on there that look at
monitoring growing degree daysfrom a user specified plant date
(12:17):
and then also tracking pestrisk, for different locations. I
know alfalfa weevil was a bigissue earlier in the season, and
so people were able to use,tools from the Iowa
Environmental Mesonet that nowwe have, pointed to in this
dashboard, they can utilize thatto expedite their pest
(12:40):
management decision earlier inthe season, and stuff like that.
So what what this dashboard isgonna allow us to do is is
streamline access to tools,freely available tools for
producers across the Midwest tohelp them, make their decisions
on their farm.
Todd Gleason (13:00):
How is it that farmers can participate in this
process of maybe developing thetools?
Austin Pearson (13:05):
Yeah. So on Wednesday, July 30 from 9AM to
12PM central time, we are goingto be hosting a virtual workshop
that is funded by the UnitedSoybean Board. The Midwestern
Regional Climate Center combinedwith Illinois Extension as well
as Trent Ford, the stateclimatologist, we're gonna host
(13:27):
that virtual workshop. We'regonna gather feedback on the
dashboard and just general dataneeds and decision support needs
that farmers and advisors needto help streamline their
decisions throughout and outsideof the growing season. So by
participating in the workshop,your feedback will help guide
(13:49):
the development of the nextgeneration of weather weather
tools that we include in thedashboard, And then also develop
real world needs and just tofind out real world needs of
what users are are desperatelyneeding for that.
And and to to top it off, thefirst 25 people who register get
(14:10):
a $350 stipend for justparticipating. And so, you know,
it it it's really easy to to dothat and and get paid for your
opinions.
Todd Gleason (14:21):
Oh, that's fantastic. Is there anything
else we should know?
Austin Pearson (14:24):
Here's what we're gonna do during the
workshop. We're gonna take a ahard look at the, dashboard.
We're gonna get information fromyou all and the usability and
different tools that are inthat. And then we'll also get,
some information from you all onthe data needs for soybean
(14:45):
production, and not just soybeanproduction, just row crop
production in the Midwest ingeneral. So we're hoping to get
as much feedback on thedashboard, but also assessing,
the needs of the industry movingforward.
Todd Gleason (14:59):
Okay. There are a couple of ways that folks can
sign up or at least, ways thatthey, confine to sign up. One of
them is if you are subscribed tothe Crop Central email from the
University of Illinois. You'vealready seen an article on that.
It'll probably pop up in thenext couple of days as well, and
you'll be able to sign updirectly from that email.
You can go to willag.org,willag.0rg, as the articles that
(15:24):
are posted to Crop Central arethere, and you'll be looking for
the article about empowering,Illinois soybean producers. And
just as a reminder, this issponsored by the United Soybean
Board along with the MidwesternRegional Climate Center,
Illinois Extension, IllinoisState Water Survey, and the
Illinois Soybean Association.I'm sure they have a way to sign
(15:47):
up there as well, but it'sprobably easiest if you're
listening to WILL and theclosing market report to sign up
at willag.org. And the first 25that sign up will receive an
honorarium of $350. Don't wait.
Do it right now. Thank you,Austin, for being with us. I
appreciate it.
Austin Pearson (16:07):
Thank you, sir.
Todd Gleason (16:08):
That's Austin Pearson. He is a climatologist
with the Midwest RegionalClimate Center based on the
Purdue campus in Lafayette,Indiana. Let's check-in on the
(16:31):
global growing regions with MikeTanure. He's the president and
CEO of tStorm Weather. That'ststorm.net online.
Hello, Mike. Thanks for beingwith us. Let's start with soil
moisture conditions across theMidwest as we move into this hot
time frame. We'll discuss thatin a moment. But first, how are
(16:53):
we set up to move into it?
Mike Tannura (16:55):
Well, there's a couple of different ways to look
at it, but we'll start out withour proprietary data. And what
we're going to talk about is theamount of US corn that was drier
than normal over the last thirtydays. This gives some indication
of where we are today relativeto other years. Our dataset goes
back to 2011, so we have 15growing seasons of data to look
(17:17):
at on a daily basis. And if welook at where we were as of
yesterday, which was day number76 since half of the corn crop
was planted, only about 10% ofUS corn was drier than normal
over this thirty day period, Andthat's the lowest value going
all the way back to 2011, whichmeans it goes back even further
(17:38):
than that.
We just don't have the exactyear. But it gives you some
indication that conditions rightnow are not dry. We have either
adequate ideal or surplus soilmoisture for The US corn crop.
There is another way to look atit too, which might be maybe a
little simpler, but not quite asscientific and doesn't quite
provide the background as much.But if we look at the amount of
(17:59):
rain that fell in the sevenstate Corn Belt in the month of
June and then look atunofficially what's happened so
far in July and kinda take itforward through next week to get
an idea of how we're going toend up, it very likely is going
to be the wettest June and Julyin The US Corn Belt since 2018.
2018 will have been a little bitwetter, but we will have been
(18:20):
one of the wetter here onrecord. And actually, let me
take that back, the wettestsince 2016, not 2018. But it
gives you some idea here thatwe're in a wet growing season.
And, you know, typically, cropslike that as long as you don't
get too much.
Todd Gleason (18:35):
Now tell me a bit more about that. We'll start
with the heat that we're in themidst of. What does that mean
for the crop, do you think, andhow much heat will we really
have over this set of few days?
Mike Tannura (18:46):
Well, it's going to be pretty hot for the next
five, six, seven days in most ofthe Central US, but not all of
it. People to the West Of TheMississippi River are going to
be pretty nice today andtomorrow with highs only in the
eighties and lows in thesixties, so really no big deal
there. If you're East Of TheMississippi River, that's where
it's going to be hot, especiallyIllinois and points east through
Indiana and Ohio. Highs in thenineties, lows in the mid
(19:09):
seventies, maybe even around 80at times. So that's pretty warm
for this time of the year.
And certainly, crops don't likethat. They would like to have
cool weather this time of theyear. So that's kind of the one
piece of the story that hasn'tbeen super ideal that it has
been warm at times, but we needto keep in mind a couple of
things, Todd. If you look attemperatures over the last
(19:29):
thirty days for US corn, kindlike we talked about earlier,
they're not all that impressivebecause we've only been around
one and a half degrees warmerthan normal. That number was
much higher several weeks agodue to a lot of heat at the
June.
But heat at the June, I think wetalked about it on your show,
that's not really something tobe super concerned about because
(19:50):
corn is still growing, soybeansare still growing, they're not
super sensitive yet, and thatwarm weather helps them to get
going. You get heat now andthat's where it's a different
story. You don't really want tosee that. So there certainly
will be some stress from thisover the next five, six, seven
days. But the other things tokeep in mind are, number one,
it's not dry.
So that is going to be helpingout with the crop when it gets
(20:13):
affected by the heat. On top ofthat, there's more rain out
there. We're going to seethunderstorms in all different
parts of The US over the nextfive to seven days. That's
partially a function of thatheat. You put a hot atmosphere
on top of a wet soil thatcreates an unstable air mass and
then any little perturbationmoving through the Central US
will trigger thunderstormclusters.
(20:33):
That's going to be the case inIllinois and in Indiana over the
next three to four or five days.Only until a big cool frog moves
through does it end. Todd,that's the other thing we need
to talk about. There's an idealsetup coming up next week for
cool weather. So we're going tosee temperatures drop all the
way into the 70s for highs withlows in the 50s, maybe even some
(20:56):
40s in Michigan and Wisconsin ona day or two late next week.
And that is ideal for craftdevelopment. So, you know, you
put all this together. We don'thave everything quite figured
out yet, but if that coolpattern next week were to last,
then all of a sudden, you haveto really start thinking about
where these yields are going.
Todd Gleason (21:12):
On that note, what do you suppose the odds are that
the cooler weather might lastinto August?
Mike Tannura (21:19):
Well, it's certainly going to turn pretty
cool in August, at least in thefirst few days of it because of
that front that comes throughnext week. That'll start out in
the northern growing areas onTuesday, and then it'll slide
through the rest of the CentralUS on Wednesday and Thursday. So
when we talk again right nownext week, it'll be a lot cooler
with, again, highs in theseventies and lows mostly in the
fifties. After a few days ofpretty ideal temperatures, we
(21:42):
can see that it is going to warmup, but the warm up doesn't look
super strong. There's stillgoing to be cool fronts passing
to our north, and one or two ofthose will probably sink
southward at some point in timewithin the first five to ten
days of August.
So in the end, temperatures willprobably end up being normal or
maybe even a little bit coolerthan normal to open up the first
seven to ten days of August. Sothat'll be a really key thing to
(22:04):
watch because if it were to staycool for that period of time and
then last, that's a nice recipefor corn and soybean
development. And if it were toturn hot, that would be a
different story. So we need towatch those temperatures pretty
closely starting here next week.
Todd Gleason (22:17):
Hey. Thank you much, Mike. I appreciate it.
Sure thing, Todd. That's MikeTenora.
He is the CEO and president of tstorm weather at tstorm.net
online. You've been listening tothe closing market report on
this Thursday afternoon. FromIllinois public media, it is
public radio for the farmingworld. We'll record our
commodity week program latertoday, and you'll find that up
(22:39):
online at willag.org. Nottonight because I'll include
some information from Joe Jensenthat'll be recorded tomorrow
afternoon, but you'll be able tohear it on our home station, the
full program tomorrow during theclosing market report hour at
02:00.
And then, of course, on many ofthese radio stations over the
weekend, then it'll be up before02:00 at willag.org. Thank you
(23:03):
for listening to agriculturalprogramming from Illinois Public
Media. I'm Extension's ToddGleason.
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