July 25, 2025 • 20 mins
- Mike Zuzolo, GlobalCommResearch.com
- Eric Snodgrass, NutrienAgSolutions.com
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
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Todd Gleason (00:00):
From the Lend Grant University in Urbana
Champaign, Illinois. This is theclosing market report. It is the
July. I'm extension's ToddGleason. Coming up, we'll talk
about the commodity markets withMike Zuzlow.
He's at globalcomresearch.comout of Atchison, Kansas, and
we'll hear about theagricultural weather forecast
from Eric Snograss from NutriNagSolutions at Agrabal. If you can
(00:24):
stay with us for the whole halfhour, we'll also include all of
our commodity week program. Ifnot, you'll hear a portion of it
with our panelists including JoeJansen. He's with the University
of Illinois along withagmarket.net's Kurt Kimmel and
Greg Johnson from Total GrainMarketing all on this Friday
edition of the closing marketreport from Illinois public
(00:45):
media. It is public radio forthe farming world online on
demand at willag.0rg.
September corn for the daysettled at $3.99 and a half.
That was down two and a quartersince December at $4.19. A penny
and three quarters lower in theMarch at $4.36 and a half on
(01:06):
this Friday afternoon. A pennyand three quarters lower. August
soybeans, $9.98 and 3 quarters,five and a half lower.
September at $10.02, down threeand three quarters. November
beans at $10.21. They finished 3and a quarter cents lower for
the day. Bean meal futures adollar 90 lower. The bean oil at
$56.49, 18¢ lower.
(01:27):
December wheat at $5.58 and aquarter down 3¢. The hard red at
$5.47 and three quarters downtwo both in that December
contract. Mike Zuzolo,globalcomresearch.com in
Atchison, Kansas now joins us totake a look at the marketplace.
Hello, Mike. Thanks for beingwith us.
Mike Zuzolo (01:45):
Great to be back with you, Todd. Thanks for
having me.
Todd Gleason (01:48):
Where would you like to start today?
Mike Zuzolo (01:49):
Well, I think for us, the commodity demand low
mindset is something that Ireally wanna keep track with for
anybody that I'm talking to inin ag media. And because if it's
not gonna be about weather asfar as how the market goes in
terms of turning around, and wecontinue to keep demand
underpinned, especially in cornlike we saw this past week. And
(02:13):
we see trade deals signed withstill inadequate, I would say,
details, but yet forwardprogress is being made. And the
market still is making newweekly lows, which it did in soy
and in soft red wheat, but notcorn. I think it's important to
keep track with whether we canmake a commodity demand low
(02:35):
before the August crop report.
And this week kinda suggested tome that while I'm not giving up
on it, it's not a dead idea atall because of the fundamentals
that I just mentioned. But it iskind of on life support because
we weren't too far from takinglast week's lows out. And those
are the big numbers for me as weget prepared for the USDA WASDE
(02:58):
numbers. And so that's kind ofwhere I sit as we close out the
Friday trade is that I got whatI wanted fundamentally, from the
trade deals, from the demandside. Price action was not
having anything but lowerprices, and I think that really
does go back to the supply side,the weather side.
Todd Gleason (03:15):
I was going to ask you what this goes back to, but
I suppose you're telling me thatit's simply that crop growing
conditions in The United States,particularly across the Midwest,
have been really pretty good sofar this season.
Mike Zuzolo (03:28):
I I think so. I think there's probably some
program selling going in, withthe commodity funds still with
the corn being the short side ofspreads. We noticed that early
in the week. The the beans tryto rally. It's hard to think
about, but those beans, youknow, getting back up towards
that ten thirty plus level earlyin the week and then ending up
back down around 10.
At the end of the week, themarket seems very satisfied with
(03:51):
$4 corn at front end and and $10beans front end. And that's, I
think, where the program sellingcomes into play because the
beans tried to go. Corn was ashort side of spreads. Then
after we saw more Chinese newsabout meal from Argentina going
second low going to China, sawthat they were gonna start
(04:11):
liquidating their sow herdbecause of poor profitability
and losses. These things justbrought the beans right back
down again.
So at the end of the week, Istill feel as though, as I felt
the past several months, beansstill have the roughest road as
far as trying to get higher andbreaking their trend.
Todd Gleason (04:27):
Let's go through what you think the supply side
of the marketplace might looklike because as you said, the
demand side has been fed, thoughit hasn't really reacted.
Mike Zuzolo (04:40):
Right.
Todd Gleason (04:41):
What do you see as it's related to the moisture
levels across the Corn Belt andhow that's feeding into yield?
Mike Zuzolo (04:49):
Yeah. I mean, are areas that look like they're
gonna get blessed with some veryneeded rains, East Of The
Mississippi especially, andmaybe a little bit more in the
Dakotas as well and also CentralAnd Western Kansas. But it
midweek, I went ahead and did mycorn yield analysis ahead of the
August numbers. And I got a lotof really good feedback from
(05:11):
clients both before and afterand subscribers as well. And I
felt really good about thenumbers and how I did them.
Use a variety of differenttools, anecdotal talking with
the clients and subscribers, alot of satellite imagery, a lot
of other modeling that I do. Andwhat was hard this year, Todd,
(05:32):
was there is a lot ofinadvertent or indirect losses
showing up on some of thesatellite imagery because of the
wet spring and the either thepoor stands or, one Northwest
Iowa client told me, and andthis is really important because
I think Iowa is the heart andsoul of people talking about one
(05:53):
eighty five plus national cornyield this year. He said two
thirds of my crops amazing, butthe other third between the
trash in the field or you know,doing no till. I just had really
bad stands and the beans lookreally rough. And I'd say one
third of my crop is no betterthan average.
And that's in one of those areasthat did get a lot of rain in
(06:14):
the springtime. And I thinkthat's what's going to be the
issue, whether USDA picks thatup because of the satellite
imagery, I'm looking at and someother things, or whether they
have to wait until we actuallyget in the fields in the fall is
probably the biggest question inmy mind. But I couldn't get much
above USDA's 181 level from lastyear on national corn yield.
Came out with 182.2. Part ofthat reason goes back to talking
(06:38):
about what I just talked aboutin states that just got done
having record yields, Illinoislast year, Iowa last year, South
Dakota 164 last year, can wereally be above last year's
level in South Dakota because ofsome of these metrics that I'm
looking at.
So if the 182.2 is right, we'veshaved some of the old crop
(06:58):
carryover down to maybe a1,300,000,000 bushel, keep
everything else the same fromUSDA, you're looking at maybe a
1.7 to carryover instead of 1.6.This begs the question, why are
we at three ninety five Sepcorn? That's more like a two one
to two two carryover on mymodel.
Todd Gleason (07:17):
Do you have a reason why?
Mike Zuzolo (07:19):
Well, yeah. I mean, I think we do have a lot of
traders and a lot of colleaguesI work with, and I'm sure you've
talked to a lot of our mutualcolleagues at +1 85, +1 86, even
+1 87 national yields beingkicked around just because of
the fact that the cornconditions are at a nine year
high right now.
Todd Gleason (07:37):
Do you mind if we detail the top five corn
producing states in the nationand what you think their yields
might look like?
Mike Zuzolo (07:44):
No, not at all. And the reason I do the top five,
and I'm glad you brought thatup, is is because they're gonna
be, around 56,000,000 acres ofthe 95.2. So they're they're
approaching 60%, just those fivestates. Every acre is gonna
count this year when you'retalking about record yields. I
don't mean to shortchange theother states out there, but when
(08:05):
you look at the top five, Iowa,Illinois, Nebraska, Minnesota,
South Dakota, and I was I wassurprised once again to remember
that Kansas is number six, justbarely below South Dakota at
6,200,000 acres.
You throw Kansas, Indiana, andNorth Dakota into the mix,
(08:26):
you're talking about 65,500,000acres, and that's gonna take you
up to almost 70% of the total.But for the top five, I I put
Iowa up about 2.5 bushels to twothirteen point five. Illinois
actually took below last yearbecause of the southern third of
Illinois. So instead of twoseventeen, I'm at a two
(08:48):
fourteen. Kansas very similar01/1929 last year, 01/2024 is
where I'm pegging Kansas,Illinois and Kansas are probably
going to be the areas that ifI'm wrong on my yield, it's
probably going to be there.
Nebraska, I kept exactly thesame as last year at 188. South
Dakota, I took down threebushels because it was a record
at 161. And that would be, youknow, another area that would be
(09:13):
something I'll watch to see ifI'm off on. Then Minnesota, I
did take up, two and a halfbushels from last year to one
seventy six point five.
Todd Gleason (09:21):
For those of you who are following along and
trying to figure out where yourstate might have landed in the
mix, this is the order byproduction. I think that Mike
may have put them in order bytotal number of acres, but by
total production, the predictionfor this year is Iowa as usual
for number one. Illinois,Nebraska, Minnesota is number
(09:46):
four, South Dakota is numberfive, and then Kansas which
edges out Indiana, and that'sfollowed by number eight, North
Dakota. We haven't talked aboutsoybeans. Maybe we should take
those up, Mike.
Mike Zuzolo (10:02):
No. And I think it's a good place to end the the
discussion because soybeansgonna be doing that yield update
after the August report comesout, because we're still making
the crop. One thing I've noticedabout soybeans, though, we had a
very nice inverted market,probably what, three or four
weeks ago in beans with Julybeans leading the November. And
(10:22):
now with the August now leadmonth, we've seen that inversion
get quickly erased. And I'mkeeping track of both Sepp Dees
or excuse me, Sepp March cornand Sepp March beans.
And Sepp March beans are nowover 51¢ in terms of a carry.
And so we're talking about 8.6¢a month for carrying charge.
(10:45):
Trade clearly is telling thefarmer, we aren't worried about
supply. They're doing the samething in corn at a little over
6¢ a month. But you can see bythe spreads that this trade is
not worried about the demandside, and certainly not worried
about the the yields at thispoint.
And that's really, I think,again, the crucial point of
where we're heading as far asthe August report. For beans,
(11:07):
especially to me, Todd, I don'tknow about you, but it feels a
lot like last year at this timefor beans. Could we go another
50 or 60¢ lower based upon theUSDA report? Or is this actually
going to put in a low for thethe, you know, next two, two and
a half months, kind of like whatwe did last year? And it just
feels a lot like August '24 aswe get ready to this get to this
(11:30):
next August report.
Todd Gleason (11:31):
Hey. Thank you much, Mike.
Mike Zuzolo (11:32):
Thanks, Todd.
Todd Gleason (11:33):
Mike Zuzlow is with globalcomresearch.com out
of Atchison, Kansas joined us onthis Friday edition of the
closing market report fromIllinois public medium. Find us
online at willag.org,willag.0rg. Our theme music is
written, performed, produced incourtesy of Logan County,
Illinois farmer, Tim Gleason.Eric Snodgrass from NutriNag
(12:07):
Solutions and Agrabal now joinsus to take a look at the weather
for the growing regions acrossthe planet. Hi, Eric.
Thanks for being with us. Let'sgo back to last week when you
and I were unable to come upwith a term, and I'm a little
surprised that nobody wrote inand said, hey, dude. That's
tassel wrap. They didn't. Yeah.
(12:27):
So that was good on my part, Isuppose. But I'll bet you have
checked into that, and you havesome more to talk about,
particularly as it's related tothe impact it might have.
Eric Snodgrass (12:40):
Well, that was what's funny. It's funny how old
news gets. Right? So, like, lastThursday, when I was starting
people talk about it as we werereally discussing how warm these
overnight low temperatures havebeen and how rapid the the crop
growth was, I started to hearfolks just chattering about
that. It's amazing to think it'sonly eight days old.
Right? But now it feels likereally, really old news. Like,
(13:01):
hey. We got this thing calledtassel wrap. And so anyways, so
yeah.
So long story short, I wastalking with some folks here. So
think about this, Todd. When youlook at the early part of this
growing season back in May andin early June, we were way
behind on heat units. It wascool. Do you remember that?
I mean, I I was looking at somecrops planted on the same day
last year as they were this yearthat were, like, twelve days
(13:23):
behind in their maturity becauseof the lack of heat. And then
what happened is the June cameon, and it got really hot. And
since we got into July, we'vehad plenty of episodes of heat
with overnight lows that havebeen, you know, fairly well,
very much above normal. In fact,the Eastern Corn Belt's probably
looking at the top five warmest,you know, mid June through the
(13:44):
July time frame in history.Going back to, like, 1893 is how
back our data were.
Okay. Crap grew fast. And so Iwas walking through fields on
Monday because I was like, yougotta tell me what's going on
here. So I took one of our localguys named Craig Robert. He went
out there and walked through thefield with me along with Keith
Keith Gingrich, who I also workwith.
And we found two things, a rapidgrowth syndrome, which is where
(14:06):
these low down leaves on the onthe corn plant have, like,
little ripple to them. And, youknow, they told me it was rapid
growth syndrome. And if you goback and look at it, Todd, we
had a very cold May, a coldstart to June, and then it was
the June that the heat came on,you know, I mean, a lot. So
starting off ten to twelve daysbehind normal on heat
accumulation, you know where weare now? We're above the the
(14:28):
historical GDD number.
And so what's amazing is we puton all this heat late. The crop
grew very, very rapidly, put ona lot of biomass very quickly.
And, as a result, yeah, we seethe rapid growth syndrome, and
we see some of the issues with,the tassel wrap. Now I was like,
is this tassel wrap a big deal?Like, tell me what that means
because I don't understand it.
He goes, well, first of all,look at the silks. And the way
(14:48):
it was described to me, says,look how that silk looks like
Farrah Fawcett's hair. I'm like,okay. Good analogy there. I
guess it's really long andflowing.
He says, well, that's the earkind of putting out, you know,
that that it's getting out theretrying to catch the tassel that
it's not got yet. And but hesaid, look. If we just have a
few plants with tassel wrap in afield that's nothing. Like, the
rest of them that have openedup, we're gonna be able to cross
(15:09):
pollinate this, and it'll go.But it's, it's just something to
to think about.
Now bigger picture, we do knowthat warm overnight lows tend to
have a a downside impact onyield. So, Todd, I looked at
2010 as a possible analog.Because if you remember, I know
it was fifteen years ago, but2010 was one of those summers
where we just had constant hothumid nights. And the USDA over
(15:31):
projected yields, I think, whatwas it? Seven bushels, what the
adjustment was at the end.
So some folks are stillwondering, is this crop as
amazing as everyone says it is?I'll just say this. If you look
at it from space, the NDVIvalues, again, the newest data
that just came out set a record.So, Todd, that is what I know.
It has rained in a lot ofplaces.
It's raining right now acrossCentral Illinois as we're
(15:53):
talking. We got storms coming inthis weekend, and you can't make
the argument that droughtexpanded at all. Even though
there's little pockets, it didnot expand, this summer. So
there you go. That's what Iknow.
That was the mistake a week ago,and now we've corrected it.
Todd Gleason (16:06):
Rain makes grain, and you may expand on that if
you'd like. But, otherwise, I'dlike to look forward not to the
hot weather, but the coolweather that's coming.
Eric Snodgrass (16:17):
Yeah. There is. Thank goodness too. I I it's
been uncomfortable. And, sowe're gonna start to see by
about midweek next week, a frontdrops out of Canada, drier air
and also cooler air.
I I we're gonna go fromtemperatures in low to mid
nineties several days in a rowto, like, 80. And it's gonna be
very well timed for our crops,very well timed for our own
(16:39):
human well-being to get out ofthis heat. And all the while
before that cooler dry air getshere, it's gonna we're gonna
have chances for storms comingthrough. So I can't look at that
and say that that is a a badforecast, right, for the crop.
It's certainly one there.
This heat would have stuckaround longer. It would have
been problematic, but I don'tsee it right now.
Todd Gleason (16:58):
August arrives a week from today. Will the cool
down continue into that month?
Eric Snodgrass (17:02):
It will. August is gonna have a cooler go to it.
And it's kinda like what we saw,with the cadence of weather
patterns, you know, in June andin July. So I've been kinda
joking about this, Todd, butit's kinda funny. I don't know
about you, but when I was a kid,right, my mom used the v o five
shampoo.
Right? You can get it atWalmart. And I I you know, when
(17:23):
you're a kid, you, like, readthe shower bottles because you
lose all sense of time when youget into the shower. And I
remember reading and I had abuzz cut as a little kid. But,
you know, on the back, it saidwash, rinse, repeat.
And I never knew what that meantas, a 10 year old. And, of
course, I do now. But I I'll behonest, Todd. I think August is
gonna be a wash, rinse, repeatkind of month on what we've seen
(17:44):
here in the last thirty to fortydays. So here's what I'm gonna
tell you.
Expect a cool start, and thenyou're gonna get a pulse of
warmth that comes in in themiddle of the month, maybe last
towards the end of the month.But we've had complete open
access to the Gulf Of Mexico orGulf Of America, the Gulf, and
it's it's gonna rain. I thinkwe're gonna get storms out of
it, and then that's the way it'sgonna be. So expect hot and
(18:05):
humid conditions followed bysome reprieve. Wash, rinse,
repeat.
Todd Gleason (18:09):
Any indication of what the fall will be like?
Eric Snodgrass (18:12):
Yes. I I looked hard at this this morning. So
let's think about the lastfalls. Okay? 2022, we were very,
very dry going into fall.
We had a La Nina. 2023, we werenot as dry going into fall. We
had good rains. We were at an ElNino. 2024, we went back to La
Nina, absolutely bone dry exceptfor hurricane Helene.
(18:35):
So where are we now? We havechances of having a weak La Nina
going forward. So most forecastindicates that September,
October, November has a drierbias to it. Now that means you
have to overcome what we've beendoing all summer, but there's a
hint that that may occur. So Iwould think that right now, it's
a pretty favorable outlook forthe harvest weather and then the
fall application time frame.
Todd Gleason (18:56):
Speaking of harvest, you should probably
turn some attention to SouthAmerica harvest of corn there.
They seem to have an abundanceof it. Yeah. Even a third crop
that's coming on at some pointsoon. What do you see there?
Eric Snodgrass (19:10):
Well, we are, of course, in the dry season now
down in Brazil's like Serrato,the main growing area. And we
know they've harvested a hugecrop multiple times in this
particular growing year. And Ijust have to tell everybody, no
one's gonna like what I'm aboutto say, but I gotta be honest
with you. If we do have a LaNina like fall, okay? The
Brazilian monsoon, excuse me,tends to start on time or even
(19:34):
start early, which means theywould be able to go after this
next crop of soybeans, whichwould open up their crop
calendar rather than compressit.
If I am wrong, then we have togo back to the discussion of
what it means when Brazil has amore compacted crop calendar,
But La Nina weather tends tomake dryness south into Far
Southern Brazil and Argentina,which, of course, plant much
(19:55):
later than they do up in, like,Mato Grosso. So La Nina tends to
get them off to a good start.
Todd Gleason (20:01):
Oh, great. You're telling me they have enough
soybeans to continue puttingthem into the export market.
Yes. And that they'll turnaround more quickly than
expected, possibly to put asecond set in or their first
crop for the next growing seasonsometime early in January or
maybe as early as late December.Thank you so much for joining us
(20:25):
today, Eric.
Eric Snongrass is with NutriNetSolutions Integrable joined us
on this Friday edition of theclosing market report that came
to you from Illinois PublicMedia. If you can stay with us,
our commodity week program is upnext. If not, many of these
radio stations will carry itover the weekend, And you can
find it online at willag.0rgright now.
From the Lend Grant University in Urbana
Champaign, Illinois. This is theclosing market report. It is the
July. I'm extension's ToddGleason. Coming up, we'll talk
about the commodity markets withMike Zuzlow.
He's at globalcomresearch.comout of Atchison, Kansas, and
we'll hear about theagricultural weather forecast
from Eric Snograss from NutriNagSolutions at Agrabal. If you can
(00:24):
stay with us for the whole halfhour, we'll also include all of
our commodity week program. Ifnot, you'll hear a portion of it
with our panelists including JoeJansen. He's with the University
of Illinois along withagmarket.net's Kurt Kimmel and
Greg Johnson from Total GrainMarketing all on this Friday
edition of the closing marketreport from Illinois public
(00:45):
media. It is public radio forthe farming world online on
demand at willag.0rg.
September corn for the daysettled at $3.99 and a half.
That was down two and a quartersince December at $4.19. A penny
and three quarters lower in theMarch at $4.36 and a half on
(01:06):
this Friday afternoon. A pennyand three quarters lower. August
soybeans, $9.98 and 3 quarters,five and a half lower.
September at $10.02, down threeand three quarters. November
beans at $10.21. They finished 3and a quarter cents lower for
the day. Bean meal futures adollar 90 lower. The bean oil at
$56.49, 18¢ lower.
(01:27):
December wheat at $5.58 and aquarter down 3¢. The hard red at
$5.47 and three quarters downtwo both in that December
contract. Mike Zuzolo,globalcomresearch.com in
Atchison, Kansas now joins us totake a look at the marketplace.
Hello, Mike. Thanks for beingwith us.
Mike Zuzolo (01:45):
Great to be back with you, Todd. Thanks for
having me.
Todd Gleason (01:48):
Where would you like to start today?
Mike Zuzolo (01:49):
Well, I think for us, the commodity demand low
mindset is something that Ireally wanna keep track with for
anybody that I'm talking to inin ag media. And because if it's
not gonna be about weather asfar as how the market goes in
terms of turning around, and wecontinue to keep demand
underpinned, especially in cornlike we saw this past week. And
(02:13):
we see trade deals signed withstill inadequate, I would say,
details, but yet forwardprogress is being made. And the
market still is making newweekly lows, which it did in soy
and in soft red wheat, but notcorn. I think it's important to
keep track with whether we canmake a commodity demand low
(02:35):
before the August crop report.
And this week kinda suggested tome that while I'm not giving up
on it, it's not a dead idea atall because of the fundamentals
that I just mentioned. But it iskind of on life support because
we weren't too far from takinglast week's lows out. And those
are the big numbers for me as weget prepared for the USDA WASDE
(02:58):
numbers. And so that's kind ofwhere I sit as we close out the
Friday trade is that I got whatI wanted fundamentally, from the
trade deals, from the demandside. Price action was not
having anything but lowerprices, and I think that really
does go back to the supply side,the weather side.
Todd Gleason (03:15):
I was going to ask you what this goes back to, but
I suppose you're telling me thatit's simply that crop growing
conditions in The United States,particularly across the Midwest,
have been really pretty good sofar this season.
Mike Zuzolo (03:28):
I I think so. I think there's probably some
program selling going in, withthe commodity funds still with
the corn being the short side ofspreads. We noticed that early
in the week. The the beans tryto rally. It's hard to think
about, but those beans, youknow, getting back up towards
that ten thirty plus level earlyin the week and then ending up
back down around 10.
At the end of the week, themarket seems very satisfied with
(03:51):
$4 corn at front end and and $10beans front end. And that's, I
think, where the program sellingcomes into play because the
beans tried to go. Corn was ashort side of spreads. Then
after we saw more Chinese newsabout meal from Argentina going
second low going to China, sawthat they were gonna start
(04:11):
liquidating their sow herdbecause of poor profitability
and losses. These things justbrought the beans right back
down again.
So at the end of the week, Istill feel as though, as I felt
the past several months, beansstill have the roughest road as
far as trying to get higher andbreaking their trend.
Todd Gleason (04:27):
Let's go through what you think the supply side
of the marketplace might looklike because as you said, the
demand side has been fed, thoughit hasn't really reacted.
Mike Zuzolo (04:40):
Right.
Todd Gleason (04:41):
What do you see as it's related to the moisture
levels across the Corn Belt andhow that's feeding into yield?
Mike Zuzolo (04:49):
Yeah. I mean, are areas that look like they're
gonna get blessed with some veryneeded rains, East Of The
Mississippi especially, andmaybe a little bit more in the
Dakotas as well and also CentralAnd Western Kansas. But it
midweek, I went ahead and did mycorn yield analysis ahead of the
August numbers. And I got a lotof really good feedback from
(05:11):
clients both before and afterand subscribers as well. And I
felt really good about thenumbers and how I did them.
Use a variety of differenttools, anecdotal talking with
the clients and subscribers, alot of satellite imagery, a lot
of other modeling that I do. Andwhat was hard this year, Todd,
(05:32):
was there is a lot ofinadvertent or indirect losses
showing up on some of thesatellite imagery because of the
wet spring and the either thepoor stands or, one Northwest
Iowa client told me, and andthis is really important because
I think Iowa is the heart andsoul of people talking about one
(05:53):
eighty five plus national cornyield this year. He said two
thirds of my crops amazing, butthe other third between the
trash in the field or you know,doing no till. I just had really
bad stands and the beans lookreally rough. And I'd say one
third of my crop is no betterthan average.
And that's in one of those areasthat did get a lot of rain in
(06:14):
the springtime. And I thinkthat's what's going to be the
issue, whether USDA picks thatup because of the satellite
imagery, I'm looking at and someother things, or whether they
have to wait until we actuallyget in the fields in the fall is
probably the biggest question inmy mind. But I couldn't get much
above USDA's 181 level from lastyear on national corn yield.
Came out with 182.2. Part ofthat reason goes back to talking
(06:38):
about what I just talked aboutin states that just got done
having record yields, Illinoislast year, Iowa last year, South
Dakota 164 last year, can wereally be above last year's
level in South Dakota because ofsome of these metrics that I'm
looking at.
So if the 182.2 is right, we'veshaved some of the old crop
(06:58):
carryover down to maybe a1,300,000,000 bushel, keep
everything else the same fromUSDA, you're looking at maybe a
1.7 to carryover instead of 1.6.This begs the question, why are
we at three ninety five Sepcorn? That's more like a two one
to two two carryover on mymodel.
Todd Gleason (07:17):
Do you have a reason why?
Mike Zuzolo (07:19):
Well, yeah. I mean, I think we do have a lot of
traders and a lot of colleaguesI work with, and I'm sure you've
talked to a lot of our mutualcolleagues at +1 85, +1 86, even
+1 87 national yields beingkicked around just because of
the fact that the cornconditions are at a nine year
high right now.
Todd Gleason (07:37):
Do you mind if we detail the top five corn
producing states in the nationand what you think their yields
might look like?
Mike Zuzolo (07:44):
No, not at all. And the reason I do the top five,
and I'm glad you brought thatup, is is because they're gonna
be, around 56,000,000 acres ofthe 95.2. So they're they're
approaching 60%, just those fivestates. Every acre is gonna
count this year when you'retalking about record yields. I
don't mean to shortchange theother states out there, but when
(08:05):
you look at the top five, Iowa,Illinois, Nebraska, Minnesota,
South Dakota, and I was I wassurprised once again to remember
that Kansas is number six, justbarely below South Dakota at
6,200,000 acres.
You throw Kansas, Indiana, andNorth Dakota into the mix,
(08:26):
you're talking about 65,500,000acres, and that's gonna take you
up to almost 70% of the total.But for the top five, I I put
Iowa up about 2.5 bushels to twothirteen point five. Illinois
actually took below last yearbecause of the southern third of
Illinois. So instead of twoseventeen, I'm at a two
(08:48):
fourteen. Kansas very similar01/1929 last year, 01/2024 is
where I'm pegging Kansas,Illinois and Kansas are probably
going to be the areas that ifI'm wrong on my yield, it's
probably going to be there.
Nebraska, I kept exactly thesame as last year at 188. South
Dakota, I took down threebushels because it was a record
at 161. And that would be, youknow, another area that would be
(09:13):
something I'll watch to see ifI'm off on. Then Minnesota, I
did take up, two and a halfbushels from last year to one
seventy six point five.
Todd Gleason (09:21):
For those of you who are following along and
trying to figure out where yourstate might have landed in the
mix, this is the order byproduction. I think that Mike
may have put them in order bytotal number of acres, but by
total production, the predictionfor this year is Iowa as usual
for number one. Illinois,Nebraska, Minnesota is number
(09:46):
four, South Dakota is numberfive, and then Kansas which
edges out Indiana, and that'sfollowed by number eight, North
Dakota. We haven't talked aboutsoybeans. Maybe we should take
those up, Mike.
Mike Zuzolo (10:02):
No. And I think it's a good place to end the the
discussion because soybeansgonna be doing that yield update
after the August report comesout, because we're still making
the crop. One thing I've noticedabout soybeans, though, we had a
very nice inverted market,probably what, three or four
weeks ago in beans with Julybeans leading the November. And
(10:22):
now with the August now leadmonth, we've seen that inversion
get quickly erased. And I'mkeeping track of both Sepp Dees
or excuse me, Sepp March cornand Sepp March beans.
And Sepp March beans are nowover 51¢ in terms of a carry.
And so we're talking about 8.6¢a month for carrying charge.
(10:45):
Trade clearly is telling thefarmer, we aren't worried about
supply. They're doing the samething in corn at a little over
6¢ a month. But you can see bythe spreads that this trade is
not worried about the demandside, and certainly not worried
about the the yields at thispoint.
And that's really, I think,again, the crucial point of
where we're heading as far asthe August report. For beans,
(11:07):
especially to me, Todd, I don'tknow about you, but it feels a
lot like last year at this timefor beans. Could we go another
50 or 60¢ lower based upon theUSDA report? Or is this actually
going to put in a low for thethe, you know, next two, two and
a half months, kind of like whatwe did last year? And it just
feels a lot like August '24 aswe get ready to this get to this
(11:30):
next August report.
Todd Gleason (11:31):
Hey. Thank you much, Mike.
Mike Zuzolo (11:32):
Thanks, Todd.
Todd Gleason (11:33):
Mike Zuzlow is with globalcomresearch.com out
of Atchison, Kansas joined us onthis Friday edition of the
closing market report fromIllinois public medium. Find us
online at willag.org,willag.0rg. Our theme music is
written, performed, produced incourtesy of Logan County,
Illinois farmer, Tim Gleason.Eric Snodgrass from NutriNag
(12:07):
Solutions and Agrabal now joinsus to take a look at the weather
for the growing regions acrossthe planet. Hi, Eric.
Thanks for being with us. Let'sgo back to last week when you
and I were unable to come upwith a term, and I'm a little
surprised that nobody wrote inand said, hey, dude. That's
tassel wrap. They didn't. Yeah.
(12:27):
So that was good on my part, Isuppose. But I'll bet you have
checked into that, and you havesome more to talk about,
particularly as it's related tothe impact it might have.
Eric Snodgrass (12:40):
Well, that was what's funny. It's funny how old
news gets. Right? So, like, lastThursday, when I was starting
people talk about it as we werereally discussing how warm these
overnight low temperatures havebeen and how rapid the the crop
growth was, I started to hearfolks just chattering about
that. It's amazing to think it'sonly eight days old.
Right? But now it feels likereally, really old news. Like,
(13:01):
hey. We got this thing calledtassel wrap. And so anyways, so
yeah.
So long story short, I wastalking with some folks here. So
think about this, Todd. When youlook at the early part of this
growing season back in May andin early June, we were way
behind on heat units. It wascool. Do you remember that?
I mean, I I was looking at somecrops planted on the same day
last year as they were this yearthat were, like, twelve days
(13:23):
behind in their maturity becauseof the lack of heat. And then
what happened is the June cameon, and it got really hot. And
since we got into July, we'vehad plenty of episodes of heat
with overnight lows that havebeen, you know, fairly well,
very much above normal. In fact,the Eastern Corn Belt's probably
looking at the top five warmest,you know, mid June through the
(13:44):
July time frame in history.Going back to, like, 1893 is how
back our data were.
Okay. Crap grew fast. And so Iwas walking through fields on
Monday because I was like, yougotta tell me what's going on
here. So I took one of our localguys named Craig Robert. He went
out there and walked through thefield with me along with Keith
Keith Gingrich, who I also workwith.
And we found two things, a rapidgrowth syndrome, which is where
(14:06):
these low down leaves on the onthe corn plant have, like,
little ripple to them. And, youknow, they told me it was rapid
growth syndrome. And if you goback and look at it, Todd, we
had a very cold May, a coldstart to June, and then it was
the June that the heat came on,you know, I mean, a lot. So
starting off ten to twelve daysbehind normal on heat
accumulation, you know where weare now? We're above the the
(14:28):
historical GDD number.
And so what's amazing is we puton all this heat late. The crop
grew very, very rapidly, put ona lot of biomass very quickly.
And, as a result, yeah, we seethe rapid growth syndrome, and
we see some of the issues with,the tassel wrap. Now I was like,
is this tassel wrap a big deal?Like, tell me what that means
because I don't understand it.
He goes, well, first of all,look at the silks. And the way
(14:48):
it was described to me, says,look how that silk looks like
Farrah Fawcett's hair. I'm like,okay. Good analogy there. I
guess it's really long andflowing.
He says, well, that's the earkind of putting out, you know,
that that it's getting out theretrying to catch the tassel that
it's not got yet. And but hesaid, look. If we just have a
few plants with tassel wrap in afield that's nothing. Like, the
rest of them that have openedup, we're gonna be able to cross
(15:09):
pollinate this, and it'll go.But it's, it's just something to
to think about.
Now bigger picture, we do knowthat warm overnight lows tend to
have a a downside impact onyield. So, Todd, I looked at
2010 as a possible analog.Because if you remember, I know
it was fifteen years ago, but2010 was one of those summers
where we just had constant hothumid nights. And the USDA over
(15:31):
projected yields, I think, whatwas it? Seven bushels, what the
adjustment was at the end.
So some folks are stillwondering, is this crop as
amazing as everyone says it is?I'll just say this. If you look
at it from space, the NDVIvalues, again, the newest data
that just came out set a record.So, Todd, that is what I know.
It has rained in a lot ofplaces.
It's raining right now acrossCentral Illinois as we're
(15:53):
talking. We got storms coming inthis weekend, and you can't make
the argument that droughtexpanded at all. Even though
there's little pockets, it didnot expand, this summer. So
there you go. That's what Iknow.
That was the mistake a week ago,and now we've corrected it.
Todd Gleason (16:06):
Rain makes grain, and you may expand on that if
you'd like. But, otherwise, I'dlike to look forward not to the
hot weather, but the coolweather that's coming.
Eric Snodgrass (16:17):
Yeah. There is. Thank goodness too. I I it's
been uncomfortable. And, sowe're gonna start to see by
about midweek next week, a frontdrops out of Canada, drier air
and also cooler air.
I I we're gonna go fromtemperatures in low to mid
nineties several days in a rowto, like, 80. And it's gonna be
very well timed for our crops,very well timed for our own
(16:39):
human well-being to get out ofthis heat. And all the while
before that cooler dry air getshere, it's gonna we're gonna
have chances for storms comingthrough. So I can't look at that
and say that that is a a badforecast, right, for the crop.
It's certainly one there.
This heat would have stuckaround longer. It would have
been problematic, but I don'tsee it right now.
Todd Gleason (16:58):
August arrives a week from today. Will the cool
down continue into that month?
Eric Snodgrass (17:02):
It will. August is gonna have a cooler go to it.
And it's kinda like what we saw,with the cadence of weather
patterns, you know, in June andin July. So I've been kinda
joking about this, Todd, butit's kinda funny. I don't know
about you, but when I was a kid,right, my mom used the v o five
shampoo.
Right? You can get it atWalmart. And I I you know, when
(17:23):
you're a kid, you, like, readthe shower bottles because you
lose all sense of time when youget into the shower. And I
remember reading and I had abuzz cut as a little kid. But,
you know, on the back, it saidwash, rinse, repeat.
And I never knew what that meantas, a 10 year old. And, of
course, I do now. But I I'll behonest, Todd. I think August is
gonna be a wash, rinse, repeatkind of month on what we've seen
(17:44):
here in the last thirty to fortydays. So here's what I'm gonna
tell you.
Expect a cool start, and thenyou're gonna get a pulse of
warmth that comes in in themiddle of the month, maybe last
towards the end of the month.But we've had complete open
access to the Gulf Of Mexico orGulf Of America, the Gulf, and
it's it's gonna rain. I thinkwe're gonna get storms out of
it, and then that's the way it'sgonna be. So expect hot and
(18:05):
humid conditions followed bysome reprieve. Wash, rinse,
repeat.
Todd Gleason (18:09):
Any indication of what the fall will be like?
Eric Snodgrass (18:12):
Yes. I I looked hard at this this morning. So
let's think about the lastfalls. Okay? 2022, we were very,
very dry going into fall.
We had a La Nina. 2023, we werenot as dry going into fall. We
had good rains. We were at an ElNino. 2024, we went back to La
Nina, absolutely bone dry exceptfor hurricane Helene.
(18:35):
So where are we now? We havechances of having a weak La Nina
going forward. So most forecastindicates that September,
October, November has a drierbias to it. Now that means you
have to overcome what we've beendoing all summer, but there's a
hint that that may occur. So Iwould think that right now, it's
a pretty favorable outlook forthe harvest weather and then the
fall application time frame.
Todd Gleason (18:56):
Speaking of harvest, you should probably
turn some attention to SouthAmerica harvest of corn there.
They seem to have an abundanceof it. Yeah. Even a third crop
that's coming on at some pointsoon. What do you see there?
Eric Snodgrass (19:10):
Well, we are, of course, in the dry season now
down in Brazil's like Serrato,the main growing area. And we
know they've harvested a hugecrop multiple times in this
particular growing year. And Ijust have to tell everybody, no
one's gonna like what I'm aboutto say, but I gotta be honest
with you. If we do have a LaNina like fall, okay? The
Brazilian monsoon, excuse me,tends to start on time or even
(19:34):
start early, which means theywould be able to go after this
next crop of soybeans, whichwould open up their crop
calendar rather than compressit.
If I am wrong, then we have togo back to the discussion of
what it means when Brazil has amore compacted crop calendar,
But La Nina weather tends tomake dryness south into Far
Southern Brazil and Argentina,which, of course, plant much
(19:55):
later than they do up in, like,Mato Grosso. So La Nina tends to
get them off to a good start.
Todd Gleason (20:01):
Oh, great. You're telling me they have enough
soybeans to continue puttingthem into the export market.
Yes. And that they'll turnaround more quickly than
expected, possibly to put asecond set in or their first
crop for the next growing seasonsometime early in January or
maybe as early as late December.Thank you so much for joining us
(20:25):
today, Eric.
Eric Snongrass is with NutriNetSolutions Integrable joined us
on this Friday edition of theclosing market report that came
to you from Illinois PublicMedia. If you can stay with us,
our commodity week program is upnext. If not, many of these
radio stations will carry itover the weekend, And you can
find it online at willag.0rgright now.
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