July 28, 2025 • 23 mins
- Curt Kimmel, AgMarket.net
- Chad Hart, Iowa State University
- Mark Russo, EverStream.ai
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Todd Gleason (00:00):
From the land to Grant University in Urbana
Champaign, Illinois. This is theclosing market report. It is the
July. I'm extension's ToddGleason. Coming up, we'll talk
about the commodity markets withKurt Kimmel.
He's at agmarket.net. We'lldiscuss tariffs, trade, and
negotiations, and how those areimpacting the marketplace and
(00:22):
why supply really does seem tobe the important thing at the
moment. We'll do that with ChadHart at Iowa State University
Extension in Ames, and thenwe'll turn our attention to the
weather forecast. We'll do thatwith Mark Russo of Everestreem
Analytics on this Monday.Addition of the closing market
report from Illinois PublicMedia.
(00:43):
It is public radio for thefarming world online on demand
anytime you'd like to listen tous. Look us up as a podcast.
Search out the closing marketreport from Illinois Public
Media. Todd Gleason services aremade available to WILL by
University of IllinoisExtension. September corn for
the day at $3.93 and threequarters, down five and three
(01:05):
quarters.
December at $4.14 on thisMonday, a nickel lower, and the
March settled at $4.31 and aquarter. It was down 5 and a
quarter cents for the afternoon.The soybeans in the August at
$9.88 and 3 quarters, a dimelower. The September at $9.92
and a half down 9 and a halfcents, and new crop November,
$10.11 and a half, 9 and a halflower. Bean milled futures down
(01:29):
$2.90.
The bean oil, 6¢ higher, andwheat futures for the soft red
in the December contract, just ahalf cent higher at $5.58 and 3
quarters of a cent a bushel. Thehard red at $5.46 and 3 quarters
down a penny for the day. Livecattle futures after the Friday
USDA report finished the October$2.24 77 and a half for the live
(01:52):
cattle, a dollar 62 and a halfhigher. Feeder cattle up $2.35
per 100 pounds at $334.55, andlean hogs, 27 and a half cents
higher at $90.87 and a halfcents. Crude oil, around a
dollar 46 higher at $66.63 abarrel.
The wholesale price of dieselfuel at $2.40 and 3 tenths, two
(02:16):
and 4 tenths of a cent higher ingasoline on the RBOP, up three
and seven tenths at $2.10 and atenth of a cent. We're now
joined by Kurt Kimmel. He's atagmarket.net to discuss these
numbers. Thanks so much forbeing with us, Kurt. I hope you
had a great weekend if maybe alittle rainfall, a lot of
rainfall possibly.
Curt Kimmel (02:36):
Boy, it was humid. We had a family wedding event,
and I had to wear a jacket therefor a while. But I went through
two shirts, but we made it.Unbelievable. Wow.
Todd Gleason (02:47):
Well, it remains humid on hot, hot, hot. However,
the marketplace is kinda cold,cold, cold. Can you tell me why
that is the case today?
Curt Kimmel (02:57):
Oh, boy. Yeah. It is no giddy up to it at all.
Basically, you know, the theforecast itself, even though
it's warm, it does have moisturearound, in fact, maybe too much
moisture, some areas. But thetemperature is expected to cool
as we move into the weekend and,next week, warm up, somewhat,
(03:17):
but the trade is really not realconcerned about weather right at
the moment.
There is concern though aboutfungus and disease and so forth,
so we'll see how that affectsthe crop. This afternoon's crop
conditions report is just aboutunchanged from last week,
expected to be about 74% good toexcellent corn, soybeans are
(03:42):
expected to be about 68% good toexcellent, wheat harvest about
82% complete. Seasonally,actually good to excellent
category starts to turn downhere as the crop matures, so
seasonally, here in the nextweek or two we should see the
good to excellent conditionskind of, pull back some
(04:07):
somewhat. As far as today's,last night's price action, there
was talk, of course, of thetrade deals, the EU. They're
supposed to purchase about750,000 $750,000,000,000 in US
goods from The US and investabout 600,000,000,000 into The
US.
(04:27):
As these other countriesnegotiate, eventually, you know,
we'll probably see, hopefullysee some numbers here before,
Friday, August 1 is kind of whatthe deadline's, been,
advertised. But the big the bigtrade talk, of course, will be
US and China. They're inStockholm here this week and,
(04:51):
odds are they'll make someheadway here and try to extend
some deadlines. As everyoneknows, China's big one is, we're
in the key time window in herefor them to make some purchases
because these purchases need tobe made so these ag products,
particularly beans, can be movedto a logistic location here so
(05:12):
we can ship it out here laterthis wintertime.
Todd Gleason (05:14):
Speaking of the export market, corn exports
continue to look fairly good.What can you tell me about that
place?
Curt Kimmel (05:21):
Yeah. Sales are there. We sold 225,000 tons of
corn Mexico, sold another229,000 tons of unknown. The
unknown sale was a chunk of thatwas new crop. We wrap up the
marketing here at the August, soany old crop business needs to
take place, needs to be shipped.
And shipments were fantastictoday. We shipped out
(05:43):
59,900,000, bushels of corn, 15millions of bushels of beans.
The corn number was above tradeexpectations, and the soybean
shipments were at the upper endof expectations. So overall,
demand's been good for the mostpart, but it's the future demand
that the trade is, beingconcerned about, particularly
(06:05):
with the corn in the SouthernHemisphere coming on the market.
Then two, Argentina, theylowered their export tax, bean
exports tax was 33%, it's bumpeddown to 26%, meal tax is, 31%,
it was moved down to 24.5%, soit's going to keep grain from
(06:27):
Brazil and Argentina on theworld market, and, they're
they're our main competitionhere as we go into this fall.
Todd Gleason (06:34):
Well, so the the competition will be offset
probably by sales to otherplaces unless, of course, there
continues to be an issue, withthe world's largest buyer,
China, and that is in the Trumpadministration's court at this
point. We've taken that upalready a couple of times. I do
want you to turn your attentionto last Friday and the USDA
(06:56):
cattle inventories and on feednumbers. Can you tell me about
those and the impact they had inChicago today?
Curt Kimmel (07:04):
Yeah, if you wanted some giddy up in the cattle
market here earlier thismorning, especially right out of
the chute, on feed 98.4%, prettyclose to the average guest, but,
placement's 92%, the averageguest was 98, marketing is 95.6,
the average guest was 96.4.Inventory wise, the cattle on
(07:27):
all cattle and calves 98.7%,beef cows 98.8%, dairy cattle
100.5% and then calf crop 98.6%.You know, we're just not seeing
expansion when you visit withbeef guys, you know, it's awful
(07:47):
lucrative to move, move insteadof retaining it through here. So
at some point in time in hereuntil we actually see some
heifer retention take place,We're going to continue to see
tight situation. The other thingon the world market, whether or
not we see these feeders comenorth out of Mexico due to
screwworm and also to Brazil.
(08:10):
And we need to see what happensto the terror as far as meat
coming into The US from Brazil.
Todd Gleason (08:16):
Hey. Thanks much, Kurt.
Curt Kimmel (08:18):
You bet. Take care.
Todd Gleason (08:19):
You too. Kurt Kimmel is with agmarket.net.
We're now joined by Chad Hart,agricultural economist at Iowa
State University in Ames, anextension ag econ specialist
there. Thank you very much,Chad, for taking some time with
us. There have been a series ofannouncements of trade
(08:43):
agreements, trade frameworksthat the president has, put
forth over the last week.
They include Japan, Indonesia, acouple of others, and just this
week, the EU or the EuropeanUnion, and he is working with
The UK this week as well. I'mwondering how you see these
(09:06):
agreements and what the tradereaction in your opinion has
been.
Chad Hart (09:11):
Well, that's the deal. The trade reaction has
sort of just been there. If youwill, the ag markets have sort
of just sort of treaded waterfor a while as we go through
this trade and tariffuncertainty. But when we look at
the frameworks that have beenput forward, you know, the idea
is that The US is putting on atleast a minimum of a 10% to 15%
(09:32):
tariff on almost everybody, butsame time too, we're exempting
certain products. And that's oneof the things I'm watching to
see is how those other countriesare responding with their tariff
rates.
For the most part, what we'refinding is that we're not seeing
any reciprocal tariffs on thepart of those other countries
onto The US, which is good newsfor US agriculture. But it also
(09:56):
brings up the question of whatare we really gaining from this
here as we're looking? Because Iknow in the case of the EU
framework, it sounds likeseveral agricultural products
were exempted where it's a zerofor zero tariffs, where neither
The US nor the EU are placing atariff on those goods.
Todd Gleason (10:13):
It all is almost like watching the weather work
its way into the marketplace.Instead of a premium, it's a
discount, relatively speaking.And and whatever the trade is or
the crop size is is normal untilit's not, and we're still kind
of watching that. I think thereis a discount within the in the
(10:34):
marketplace. You can tell mewhether you believe that is the
case or not too, at least fortrade still.
However, it is supply side thatseems to be driving this market.
How good is the corn crop in thestate of Iowa?
Chad Hart (10:48):
Well, that's still looks really good, but I think
it's one of those cases againwhere we're trying to figure out
whether looks are againdeceiving. I think for a lot of
folks, we've been hearing a lotof discussion about, you know,
tar spot and spots. Been hearinga lot about tight tassel wrap.
At the same time too, these arenot issues you spot from the
(11:09):
roadway. And when we're lookingfrom the roadway, what we've got
is our crops that have gotten,you know, a good amount of
moisture, especially compared toprevious years.
You know, a crop that went inthe ground in a timely manner,
it's looking good. And I think,yeah, you're right. The idea is
that, you know, those suppliesand especially on the corn side,
(11:31):
that projection of record yieldand record production is
weighing heavily on the market.
Todd Gleason (11:37):
Yeah. It doesn't hurt that there is a second crop
or safrinha corn crop in Brazilthat is also big and coming into
the market more than maybe weexpected just because the size
was there.
Chad Hart (11:49):
Yep. The size is there, but, but I'll say this as
well. The demand globally hasbeen there. One of the things
that has fascinated me,especially with these past two,
three months is watching thecontinued strength that Us corn
has had in the global market,despite that safrinha crop
coming online. It just goes toshow that world demand right now
(12:09):
was strong enough to eat throughnot only The US crop, but
continue to take on thatsafrinha crop as well.
And we continue to see reallygood flows.
Todd Gleason (12:19):
When you think about old and new crop at this
point, many producers will lookat that old crop ending stocks
number. And I talked with JoeJansen late last week about
this. He wrote a Farm Doc Dailyarticle about it, in fact, and
the impact it has going forward.But mostly it's about the impact
that the size of the coming cropis having on the trade as it's
(12:43):
waiting for those supplies tocome in. Is that your opinion as
well?
Chad Hart (12:46):
Yeah, it is my opinion as well. I mean, anytime
we're staring at the potentialof not only a record crop, but a
record by over three fiftymillion bushels, That's just a
stunning amount of possibleproduction coming in here within
the next, you know, couple ofmonths. And so I think that is
having, let's call it anoverweighted experience in the
(13:09):
markets today relative to anormal crop.
Todd Gleason (13:12):
When you talk to hog producers in the state of
Iowa, I'd like to discuss theavailability of soybean meal and
the biofuels push. That would befor oil. It just seems to me
that there might be an awful lotof meal available. Will they
expand herds?
Chad Hart (13:32):
Right now, I'd say the economics are sort of split
on that. The idea is what wecontinue to see is, you know, we
brought the breeding herd down alittle bit, but we continue to
be able to produce a pig cropthat is creating growth when it
comes to pork supplies. And soright now I think they could
expand a little bit, especiallyas we continue to see meal
(13:54):
supplies continuing to build andthose prices continue to soften
there. But one of the things I'malso watching again here as well
is not only will we use a littlemore meal here, but we're going
to have to export that meal aswell. And that's one of the
things USDA is definitelyprojecting as we move forward.
Todd Gleason (14:11):
That will be a drag on the soybean price and
futures?
Chad Hart (14:16):
It will be a little bit of a drag, but I think in
this case, we're looking at thestrength in the oil and just the
demand in the soybean crush,hopefully being enough to offset
some potential export losses.
Todd Gleason (14:29):
What are farmers telling you about their
marketing so far?
Chad Hart (14:32):
They're basically, you know, wondering where the
seasonal, you know, typical latespring, early summer rally went,
and trying to figure out, do Ineed to make some moves here or
is it going to get, worse for meas I look out there? And I think
a lot of folks, you let's faceit, we're still cleaning up some
old crop and trying to figureout, okay, just how much room do
(14:56):
we have to put new crop intostorage to try to hold on for
next spring and look for thatrally again.
Todd Gleason (15:04):
I was contemplating over the weekend
the potential size of my owncorn crop and then, of course,
doing the multiplication. Itwould be a good year even at a
low price if the bushels arethere. I suppose that has to be
something producers need tothink about.
Chad Hart (15:21):
It is something you have to think about here and and
the idea is again, what we'rehoping for is not only a good
crop, but you know, if you get agood crop that comes out of the
field, you know, a good moisturethat is, you know, maintains
that storage capability outthere, it just gives you more
time to possibly realize someprice recovery with that good
(15:44):
crop.
Todd Gleason (15:44):
Any final word?
Chad Hart (15:46):
I think one of the big things here that, like I
say, continue to watch is I'mfascinated by, let's call it the
strange trade that we're in. Theidea is we're continuing to see
export pace on old crop lookreally good. Will that translate
for us as we're looking for newcrop? Because we're gonna need
that international boost to workthrough these larger crops we
(16:09):
think we're bringing in thisfall.
Todd Gleason (16:10):
Thank you much. I appreciate it, Chad.
Chad Hart (16:12):
Thank you.
Todd Gleason (16:12):
Chad Hart is an agricultural economist at Iowa
State University in Ames. Justone agricultural news item for
(16:33):
the day. This, follow-up to theFriday announcement by USDA.
Critics are crying the USDAagency reorganization plan
announced last week byagriculture secretary Brooke
Rawlins. In a written statement,Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota who
sits on the senate Ag Committeecondemned the plan as half baked
(16:54):
and called for USDA officials topeer before Congress saying a
reorganization of this scalewould impact USDA's ability to
provide critical services.
Rebecca Wolf, a senior policyanalyst at Food and Water Watch
Senior Food, went on to say thatthe move further guts the
government's ability to protectpublic health, the environment,
(17:17):
and food safety. The real worldconsequences will be severe, she
believes. The reorganization isat least partly a cost cutting
measure according to Rollins,and staff to be relocated
outside of the Washington, D. C.Area could see significant
salary reductions led to thelower cost of living rates.
(17:44):
You're listening to the closingmarket report from Illinois
Public Media on this Mondayafternoon. Our theme music is
written, performed, produced incourtesy of Logan County,
Illinois farmer, Tim Gleason. Dovisit our web website the
address is willag.orgwillag.0rg.There you'll find the latest
information from the cropscientists, the agricultural
(18:06):
economist, the animal scientistslocated right here on the Urbana
Champaign campus of theUniversity of Illinois. Now
let's turn our attention to theweather forecast for the growing
regions across the planet.
Mark Russo is here fromEverstream Analytics. Good
afternoon, Mark. Thank you forbeing with us again on this
(18:26):
Monday.
Mark Russo (18:27):
Hello there, Todd.
Todd Gleason (18:28):
Let's start in the Midwest. Quite the rainstorm
over the weekend, at least whereI am, and we had another one
roll through this morning. Wecertainly weren't the only part
in the Midwest that receivedrain. Tell me about those
weekend, precipitation events.
Mark Russo (18:44):
Yeah. Overall across, especially the swath,
right, kind of in and around I80 and about give it 40 or 50
miles north and south of there.That was the zone of the the
most significant rainfall, andsome areas picked up several
inches of rainfall. A lot ofthat happening in a in a short
amount of time as a result ofsome of the heavier thunderstorm
(19:06):
activity. But with thisweekend's rains, it's just been
a continuation of what we'veactually seen throughout much of
July with active pattern near toabove normal rainfall and some
of those most anomalous wetnesshas been centered here in
Illinois and kind of areas, likeIowa and adjacent areas in
Missouri too.
Todd Gleason (19:26):
It remains hot, humid. Will we continue to have
storms over the next severaldays?
Mark Russo (19:31):
Well, yes. And that is still part of, like you said,
this hot and humid patternthat's going to be in place for
the next two to three days. Soespecially across areas of the
Central And Northern Midwest,there'll be there will be
additional thunderstormcomplexes developing over the
next few days. As we get intolate this weekend late this week
and over the weekend, that'swhere we see actually cooler
(19:54):
temperatures working their wayin and drier conditions for a
relatively brief period of time.So a bit of a respite here
coming up from the heat,humidity, and and thunderstorm
activity.
As you go into later on nextweek, it does look like well,
temperatures still stayseasonal. Some rainfall
opportunities, but again, adifferent pattern compared to
(20:16):
what we're seeing right now.
Todd Gleason (20:18):
Well, tell me about that pattern and what it
might mean for the month ofAugust.
Mark Russo (20:22):
Yeah. What we're watching here is we get into,
you know, call it more like weektwo and week three of August,
beginning to see at leasttemperatures warm back up again,
climbing to warmer than normallevels. Right now, it doesn't
look as hot and humid as what'soccurring right now here
starting out the week in theMidwest. And from a rainfall
(20:45):
standpoint, it certainly islooking less active and
something to keep an eye on andto monitor, especially for
soybeans going through poddevelopment next month. But
having said all this, the soilmoisture base across the Midwest
right now is exceptionally good.
In order for things to quicklyturn detrimental, well, we don't
(21:07):
see any indications of thatright now. And even, you know,
with a warmer, drier August,that might not even result in
any kind of, you know, negativeimpacts for crop development
given the current state ofthings.
Todd Gleason (21:20):
Are there places around the planet in the
Northern Hemisphere that you'restill watching closely?
Mark Russo (21:25):
Yeah. We're watching Europe and the Black Sea region.
Again, they're in a mode rightnow of additional rain activity
and now cooler temperaturesacross the region helping to
stabilize or improve summer cropdevelopment, especially corn
that has been going through cornpollination. That looks to
continue for much of the nexttwo weeks. After that, it does
(21:47):
look like drier and warmerweather will return to more of
Europe.
In fact, hotter than normaltemperatures look to start
building into Western Europedays eleven to 15, and then that
would expand eastward as we getinto more of the August. So
something to watch here longerterm, but as of right now, this
relief that Europe and the BlackSea region is seeing for summer
(22:10):
crops, it's it's it'sbeneficial.
Todd Gleason (22:12):
Hey. Thanks much. I appreciate it. We'll talk with
you again next week.
Mark Russo (22:15):
You're welcome. Sounds great, Todd.
Todd Gleason (22:17):
Mark Russo is with Everstream Analytics, Joined us
on this Monday edition of theclosing market report that came
to you from Illinois publicmedia. It is public radio for
the farming world. Don't forgetto visit our website. The
address there is willag.org. Andin the list of articles that can
read, you'll find one that'stitled Empowering Illinois
(22:38):
Soybean Producers.
Later this week, there is aUnited Soybean Board webinar
that you can sign up for, whichwill offer you $350 if you're
one of the first 25 to do so.Make sure that you read up on
that. Get yourself signed up forthat Empowering Illinois Soybean
Producers event in cooperationwith USB, the Illinois Soybean
(23:01):
Association, the MidwestRegional Climate Center, and
Illinois Extension. You have agreat afternoon. I'm Todd
Gleeson.
(23:49):
Doctor. JACKSON:
From the land to Grant University in Urbana
Champaign, Illinois. This is theclosing market report. It is the
July. I'm extension's ToddGleason. Coming up, we'll talk
about the commodity markets withKurt Kimmel.
He's at agmarket.net. We'lldiscuss tariffs, trade, and
negotiations, and how those areimpacting the marketplace and
(00:22):
why supply really does seem tobe the important thing at the
moment. We'll do that with ChadHart at Iowa State University
Extension in Ames, and thenwe'll turn our attention to the
weather forecast. We'll do thatwith Mark Russo of Everestreem
Analytics on this Monday.Addition of the closing market
report from Illinois PublicMedia.
(00:43):
It is public radio for thefarming world online on demand
anytime you'd like to listen tous. Look us up as a podcast.
Search out the closing marketreport from Illinois Public
Media. Todd Gleason services aremade available to WILL by
University of IllinoisExtension. September corn for
the day at $3.93 and threequarters, down five and three
(01:05):
quarters.
December at $4.14 on thisMonday, a nickel lower, and the
March settled at $4.31 and aquarter. It was down 5 and a
quarter cents for the afternoon.The soybeans in the August at
$9.88 and 3 quarters, a dimelower. The September at $9.92
and a half down 9 and a halfcents, and new crop November,
$10.11 and a half, 9 and a halflower. Bean milled futures down
(01:29):
$2.90.
The bean oil, 6¢ higher, andwheat futures for the soft red
in the December contract, just ahalf cent higher at $5.58 and 3
quarters of a cent a bushel. Thehard red at $5.46 and 3 quarters
down a penny for the day. Livecattle futures after the Friday
USDA report finished the October$2.24 77 and a half for the live
(01:52):
cattle, a dollar 62 and a halfhigher. Feeder cattle up $2.35
per 100 pounds at $334.55, andlean hogs, 27 and a half cents
higher at $90.87 and a halfcents. Crude oil, around a
dollar 46 higher at $66.63 abarrel.
The wholesale price of dieselfuel at $2.40 and 3 tenths, two
(02:16):
and 4 tenths of a cent higher ingasoline on the RBOP, up three
and seven tenths at $2.10 and atenth of a cent. We're now
joined by Kurt Kimmel. He's atagmarket.net to discuss these
numbers. Thanks so much forbeing with us, Kurt. I hope you
had a great weekend if maybe alittle rainfall, a lot of
rainfall possibly.
Curt Kimmel (02:36):
Boy, it was humid. We had a family wedding event,
and I had to wear a jacket therefor a while. But I went through
two shirts, but we made it.Unbelievable. Wow.
Todd Gleason (02:47):
Well, it remains humid on hot, hot, hot. However,
the marketplace is kinda cold,cold, cold. Can you tell me why
that is the case today?
Curt Kimmel (02:57):
Oh, boy. Yeah. It is no giddy up to it at all.
Basically, you know, the theforecast itself, even though
it's warm, it does have moisturearound, in fact, maybe too much
moisture, some areas. But thetemperature is expected to cool
as we move into the weekend and,next week, warm up, somewhat,
(03:17):
but the trade is really not realconcerned about weather right at
the moment.
There is concern though aboutfungus and disease and so forth,
so we'll see how that affectsthe crop. This afternoon's crop
conditions report is just aboutunchanged from last week,
expected to be about 74% good toexcellent corn, soybeans are
(03:42):
expected to be about 68% good toexcellent, wheat harvest about
82% complete. Seasonally,actually good to excellent
category starts to turn downhere as the crop matures, so
seasonally, here in the nextweek or two we should see the
good to excellent conditionskind of, pull back some
(04:07):
somewhat. As far as today's,last night's price action, there
was talk, of course, of thetrade deals, the EU. They're
supposed to purchase about750,000 $750,000,000,000 in US
goods from The US and investabout 600,000,000,000 into The
US.
(04:27):
As these other countriesnegotiate, eventually, you know,
we'll probably see, hopefullysee some numbers here before,
Friday, August 1 is kind of whatthe deadline's, been,
advertised. But the big the bigtrade talk, of course, will be
US and China. They're inStockholm here this week and,
(04:51):
odds are they'll make someheadway here and try to extend
some deadlines. As everyoneknows, China's big one is, we're
in the key time window in herefor them to make some purchases
because these purchases need tobe made so these ag products,
particularly beans, can be movedto a logistic location here so
(05:12):
we can ship it out here laterthis wintertime.
Todd Gleason (05:14):
Speaking of the export market, corn exports
continue to look fairly good.What can you tell me about that
place?
Curt Kimmel (05:21):
Yeah. Sales are there. We sold 225,000 tons of
corn Mexico, sold another229,000 tons of unknown. The
unknown sale was a chunk of thatwas new crop. We wrap up the
marketing here at the August, soany old crop business needs to
take place, needs to be shipped.
And shipments were fantastictoday. We shipped out
(05:43):
59,900,000, bushels of corn, 15millions of bushels of beans.
The corn number was above tradeexpectations, and the soybean
shipments were at the upper endof expectations. So overall,
demand's been good for the mostpart, but it's the future demand
that the trade is, beingconcerned about, particularly
(06:05):
with the corn in the SouthernHemisphere coming on the market.
Then two, Argentina, theylowered their export tax, bean
exports tax was 33%, it's bumpeddown to 26%, meal tax is, 31%,
it was moved down to 24.5%, soit's going to keep grain from
(06:27):
Brazil and Argentina on theworld market, and, they're
they're our main competitionhere as we go into this fall.
Todd Gleason (06:34):
Well, so the the competition will be offset
probably by sales to otherplaces unless, of course, there
continues to be an issue, withthe world's largest buyer,
China, and that is in the Trumpadministration's court at this
point. We've taken that upalready a couple of times. I do
want you to turn your attentionto last Friday and the USDA
(06:56):
cattle inventories and on feednumbers. Can you tell me about
those and the impact they had inChicago today?
Curt Kimmel (07:04):
Yeah, if you wanted some giddy up in the cattle
market here earlier thismorning, especially right out of
the chute, on feed 98.4%, prettyclose to the average guest, but,
placement's 92%, the averageguest was 98, marketing is 95.6,
the average guest was 96.4.Inventory wise, the cattle on
(07:27):
all cattle and calves 98.7%,beef cows 98.8%, dairy cattle
100.5% and then calf crop 98.6%.You know, we're just not seeing
expansion when you visit withbeef guys, you know, it's awful
(07:47):
lucrative to move, move insteadof retaining it through here. So
at some point in time in hereuntil we actually see some
heifer retention take place,We're going to continue to see
tight situation. The other thingon the world market, whether or
not we see these feeders comenorth out of Mexico due to
screwworm and also to Brazil.
(08:10):
And we need to see what happensto the terror as far as meat
coming into The US from Brazil.
Todd Gleason (08:16):
Hey. Thanks much, Kurt.
Curt Kimmel (08:18):
You bet. Take care.
Todd Gleason (08:19):
You too. Kurt Kimmel is with agmarket.net.
We're now joined by Chad Hart,agricultural economist at Iowa
State University in Ames, anextension ag econ specialist
there. Thank you very much,Chad, for taking some time with
us. There have been a series ofannouncements of trade
(08:43):
agreements, trade frameworksthat the president has, put
forth over the last week.
They include Japan, Indonesia, acouple of others, and just this
week, the EU or the EuropeanUnion, and he is working with
The UK this week as well. I'mwondering how you see these
(09:06):
agreements and what the tradereaction in your opinion has
been.
Chad Hart (09:11):
Well, that's the deal. The trade reaction has
sort of just been there. If youwill, the ag markets have sort
of just sort of treaded waterfor a while as we go through
this trade and tariffuncertainty. But when we look at
the frameworks that have beenput forward, you know, the idea
is that The US is putting on atleast a minimum of a 10% to 15%
(09:32):
tariff on almost everybody, butsame time too, we're exempting
certain products. And that's oneof the things I'm watching to
see is how those other countriesare responding with their tariff
rates.
For the most part, what we'refinding is that we're not seeing
any reciprocal tariffs on thepart of those other countries
onto The US, which is good newsfor US agriculture. But it also
(09:56):
brings up the question of whatare we really gaining from this
here as we're looking? Because Iknow in the case of the EU
framework, it sounds likeseveral agricultural products
were exempted where it's a zerofor zero tariffs, where neither
The US nor the EU are placing atariff on those goods.
Todd Gleason (10:13):
It all is almost like watching the weather work
its way into the marketplace.Instead of a premium, it's a
discount, relatively speaking.And and whatever the trade is or
the crop size is is normal untilit's not, and we're still kind
of watching that. I think thereis a discount within the in the
(10:34):
marketplace. You can tell mewhether you believe that is the
case or not too, at least fortrade still.
However, it is supply side thatseems to be driving this market.
How good is the corn crop in thestate of Iowa?
Chad Hart (10:48):
Well, that's still looks really good, but I think
it's one of those cases againwhere we're trying to figure out
whether looks are againdeceiving. I think for a lot of
folks, we've been hearing a lotof discussion about, you know,
tar spot and spots. Been hearinga lot about tight tassel wrap.
At the same time too, these arenot issues you spot from the
(11:09):
roadway. And when we're lookingfrom the roadway, what we've got
is our crops that have gotten,you know, a good amount of
moisture, especially compared toprevious years.
You know, a crop that went inthe ground in a timely manner,
it's looking good. And I think,yeah, you're right. The idea is
that, you know, those suppliesand especially on the corn side,
(11:31):
that projection of record yieldand record production is
weighing heavily on the market.
Todd Gleason (11:37):
Yeah. It doesn't hurt that there is a second crop
or safrinha corn crop in Brazilthat is also big and coming into
the market more than maybe weexpected just because the size
was there.
Chad Hart (11:49):
Yep. The size is there, but, but I'll say this as
well. The demand globally hasbeen there. One of the things
that has fascinated me,especially with these past two,
three months is watching thecontinued strength that Us corn
has had in the global market,despite that safrinha crop
coming online. It just goes toshow that world demand right now
(12:09):
was strong enough to eat throughnot only The US crop, but
continue to take on thatsafrinha crop as well.
And we continue to see reallygood flows.
Todd Gleason (12:19):
When you think about old and new crop at this
point, many producers will lookat that old crop ending stocks
number. And I talked with JoeJansen late last week about
this. He wrote a Farm Doc Dailyarticle about it, in fact, and
the impact it has going forward.But mostly it's about the impact
that the size of the coming cropis having on the trade as it's
(12:43):
waiting for those supplies tocome in. Is that your opinion as
well?
Chad Hart (12:46):
Yeah, it is my opinion as well. I mean, anytime
we're staring at the potentialof not only a record crop, but a
record by over three fiftymillion bushels, That's just a
stunning amount of possibleproduction coming in here within
the next, you know, couple ofmonths. And so I think that is
having, let's call it anoverweighted experience in the
(13:09):
markets today relative to anormal crop.
Todd Gleason (13:12):
When you talk to hog producers in the state of
Iowa, I'd like to discuss theavailability of soybean meal and
the biofuels push. That would befor oil. It just seems to me
that there might be an awful lotof meal available. Will they
expand herds?
Chad Hart (13:32):
Right now, I'd say the economics are sort of split
on that. The idea is what wecontinue to see is, you know, we
brought the breeding herd down alittle bit, but we continue to
be able to produce a pig cropthat is creating growth when it
comes to pork supplies. And soright now I think they could
expand a little bit, especiallyas we continue to see meal
(13:54):
supplies continuing to build andthose prices continue to soften
there. But one of the things I'malso watching again here as well
is not only will we use a littlemore meal here, but we're going
to have to export that meal aswell. And that's one of the
things USDA is definitelyprojecting as we move forward.
Todd Gleason (14:11):
That will be a drag on the soybean price and
futures?
Chad Hart (14:16):
It will be a little bit of a drag, but I think in
this case, we're looking at thestrength in the oil and just the
demand in the soybean crush,hopefully being enough to offset
some potential export losses.
Todd Gleason (14:29):
What are farmers telling you about their
marketing so far?
Chad Hart (14:32):
They're basically, you know, wondering where the
seasonal, you know, typical latespring, early summer rally went,
and trying to figure out, do Ineed to make some moves here or
is it going to get, worse for meas I look out there? And I think
a lot of folks, you let's faceit, we're still cleaning up some
old crop and trying to figureout, okay, just how much room do
(14:56):
we have to put new crop intostorage to try to hold on for
next spring and look for thatrally again.
Todd Gleason (15:04):
I was contemplating over the weekend
the potential size of my owncorn crop and then, of course,
doing the multiplication. Itwould be a good year even at a
low price if the bushels arethere. I suppose that has to be
something producers need tothink about.
Chad Hart (15:21):
It is something you have to think about here and and
the idea is again, what we'rehoping for is not only a good
crop, but you know, if you get agood crop that comes out of the
field, you know, a good moisturethat is, you know, maintains
that storage capability outthere, it just gives you more
time to possibly realize someprice recovery with that good
(15:44):
crop.
Todd Gleason (15:44):
Any final word?
Chad Hart (15:46):
I think one of the big things here that, like I
say, continue to watch is I'mfascinated by, let's call it the
strange trade that we're in. Theidea is we're continuing to see
export pace on old crop lookreally good. Will that translate
for us as we're looking for newcrop? Because we're gonna need
that international boost to workthrough these larger crops we
(16:09):
think we're bringing in thisfall.
Todd Gleason (16:10):
Thank you much. I appreciate it, Chad.
Chad Hart (16:12):
Thank you.
Todd Gleason (16:12):
Chad Hart is an agricultural economist at Iowa
State University in Ames. Justone agricultural news item for
(16:33):
the day. This, follow-up to theFriday announcement by USDA.
Critics are crying the USDAagency reorganization plan
announced last week byagriculture secretary Brooke
Rawlins. In a written statement,Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota who
sits on the senate Ag Committeecondemned the plan as half baked
(16:54):
and called for USDA officials topeer before Congress saying a
reorganization of this scalewould impact USDA's ability to
provide critical services.
Rebecca Wolf, a senior policyanalyst at Food and Water Watch
Senior Food, went on to say thatthe move further guts the
government's ability to protectpublic health, the environment,
(17:17):
and food safety. The real worldconsequences will be severe, she
believes. The reorganization isat least partly a cost cutting
measure according to Rollins,and staff to be relocated
outside of the Washington, D. C.Area could see significant
salary reductions led to thelower cost of living rates.
(17:44):
You're listening to the closingmarket report from Illinois
Public Media on this Mondayafternoon. Our theme music is
written, performed, produced incourtesy of Logan County,
Illinois farmer, Tim Gleason. Dovisit our web website the
address is willag.orgwillag.0rg.There you'll find the latest
information from the cropscientists, the agricultural
(18:06):
economist, the animal scientistslocated right here on the Urbana
Champaign campus of theUniversity of Illinois. Now
let's turn our attention to theweather forecast for the growing
regions across the planet.
Mark Russo is here fromEverstream Analytics. Good
afternoon, Mark. Thank you forbeing with us again on this
(18:26):
Monday.
Mark Russo (18:27):
Hello there, Todd.
Todd Gleason (18:28):
Let's start in the Midwest. Quite the rainstorm
over the weekend, at least whereI am, and we had another one
roll through this morning. Wecertainly weren't the only part
in the Midwest that receivedrain. Tell me about those
weekend, precipitation events.
Mark Russo (18:44):
Yeah. Overall across, especially the swath,
right, kind of in and around I80 and about give it 40 or 50
miles north and south of there.That was the zone of the the
most significant rainfall, andsome areas picked up several
inches of rainfall. A lot ofthat happening in a in a short
amount of time as a result ofsome of the heavier thunderstorm
(19:06):
activity. But with thisweekend's rains, it's just been
a continuation of what we'veactually seen throughout much of
July with active pattern near toabove normal rainfall and some
of those most anomalous wetnesshas been centered here in
Illinois and kind of areas, likeIowa and adjacent areas in
Missouri too.
Todd Gleason (19:26):
It remains hot, humid. Will we continue to have
storms over the next severaldays?
Mark Russo (19:31):
Well, yes. And that is still part of, like you said,
this hot and humid patternthat's going to be in place for
the next two to three days. Soespecially across areas of the
Central And Northern Midwest,there'll be there will be
additional thunderstormcomplexes developing over the
next few days. As we get intolate this weekend late this week
and over the weekend, that'swhere we see actually cooler
(19:54):
temperatures working their wayin and drier conditions for a
relatively brief period of time.So a bit of a respite here
coming up from the heat,humidity, and and thunderstorm
activity.
As you go into later on nextweek, it does look like well,
temperatures still stayseasonal. Some rainfall
opportunities, but again, adifferent pattern compared to
(20:16):
what we're seeing right now.
Todd Gleason (20:18):
Well, tell me about that pattern and what it
might mean for the month ofAugust.
Mark Russo (20:22):
Yeah. What we're watching here is we get into,
you know, call it more like weektwo and week three of August,
beginning to see at leasttemperatures warm back up again,
climbing to warmer than normallevels. Right now, it doesn't
look as hot and humid as what'soccurring right now here
starting out the week in theMidwest. And from a rainfall
(20:45):
standpoint, it certainly islooking less active and
something to keep an eye on andto monitor, especially for
soybeans going through poddevelopment next month. But
having said all this, the soilmoisture base across the Midwest
right now is exceptionally good.
In order for things to quicklyturn detrimental, well, we don't
(21:07):
see any indications of thatright now. And even, you know,
with a warmer, drier August,that might not even result in
any kind of, you know, negativeimpacts for crop development
given the current state ofthings.
Todd Gleason (21:20):
Are there places around the planet in the
Northern Hemisphere that you'restill watching closely?
Mark Russo (21:25):
Yeah. We're watching Europe and the Black Sea region.
Again, they're in a mode rightnow of additional rain activity
and now cooler temperaturesacross the region helping to
stabilize or improve summer cropdevelopment, especially corn
that has been going through cornpollination. That looks to
continue for much of the nexttwo weeks. After that, it does
(21:47):
look like drier and warmerweather will return to more of
Europe.
In fact, hotter than normaltemperatures look to start
building into Western Europedays eleven to 15, and then that
would expand eastward as we getinto more of the August. So
something to watch here longerterm, but as of right now, this
relief that Europe and the BlackSea region is seeing for summer
(22:10):
crops, it's it's it'sbeneficial.
Todd Gleason (22:12):
Hey. Thanks much. I appreciate it. We'll talk with
you again next week.
Mark Russo (22:15):
You're welcome. Sounds great, Todd.
Todd Gleason (22:17):
Mark Russo is with Everstream Analytics, Joined us
on this Monday edition of theclosing market report that came
to you from Illinois publicmedia. It is public radio for
the farming world. Don't forgetto visit our website. The
address there is willag.org. Andin the list of articles that can
read, you'll find one that'stitled Empowering Illinois
(22:38):
Soybean Producers.
Later this week, there is aUnited Soybean Board webinar
that you can sign up for, whichwill offer you $350 if you're
one of the first 25 to do so.Make sure that you read up on
that. Get yourself signed up forthat Empowering Illinois Soybean
Producers event in cooperationwith USB, the Illinois Soybean
(23:01):
Association, the MidwestRegional Climate Center, and
Illinois Extension. You have agreat afternoon. I'm Todd
Gleeson.
(23:49):
Doctor. JACKSON:
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