July 29, 2025 • 23 mins
- Naomi Blohm, TotalFarmMarketing.com
- Dan O'Brien, Kansas State University Extension
- Don Day, DayWeather.com
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Todd Gleason (00:00):
From the land to Grant University in Urbana
Champaign, Illinois. This is theclosing market reported as the
July 2025 by my extension's ToddGleason. Coming up, we'll talk
about the commodity markets withNaomi Bloem. She's at
totalfarmmarketing.com out ofWest Bend, Wisconsin. I'll bring
you up to speed on some of theag news for the afternoon, and
(00:20):
we'll hear from Dan O'Brien atKansas State University.
He'll explore with us the topicof biofuels, ethanol in
particular, as well as renewablediesel, and then we'll turn our
attention to the weatherforecast as we work through the
end of the program with Don Dayat Day Weather in Cheyenne,
Wyoming on this Tuesday editionto the closing market report
(00:42):
from Illinois Public Media. Itis public radio for the farming
world celebrating forty years ofthis program and more than
10,000 episodes.
announce (00:53):
Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by
University of IllinoisExtension.
Todd Gleason (00:58):
September corn for the day settled at $3.89 and a
quarter. That was down 4 and ahalf cents. December at $4.11,
three lower, and the March at$4.28 and three quarters down 2
and a half cents. Augustsoybeans, $9.81 and 3 quarters,
seven lower. September downthree at $9.89 and a half, and
new crop November soybeans,$10.09 and a half cents, 2¢
(01:20):
lower.
Bean meal futures down $3.20.The bean oil up 99¢. Wheat
futures soft red down eight andthree quarters. The settlement
price at $5.50. The hard red at$5.39 and a half in the December
down 7 and a quarter cents.
Live cattle futures in Chicagoat a dollar 67 and a half
(01:40):
higher. The feeder cattle $2.52and a half cents higher and lean
hogs up $2.15 that of course 400pounds. Naomi Blohm of
totalfarmmarketing.com out ofWest Bend Wisconsin now joins
us. Thank you Naomi for beingwith us. The northern part of
the reaches of our listeningarea, and you would be above
(02:03):
that but still able to tune usin if you really wanted to
listen to a lot of static.
Had a lot of wind in the arealast night from the storms. Did
you see any of that in your partof Wisconsin?
Naomi Blohm (02:16):
So where we are, no. We had no rain specifically
where I live, but what I hadheard was some of the damage
that was in the Northwest Cornerof Iowa with some corn down,
some bins with damage as well.We're trying to understand how
extensive that is. But for otherparts of the Midwest, it was
(02:42):
just a nice regular summerthunderstorm. So that's why the
market didn't really respond toany potential storm damage for
the moment.
Traders continue just to befocused overall on how big that
crop really probably is overall.
Todd Gleason (02:58):
In the last week, and going into the August 1 self
imposed deadline, the Trumpadministration has been
announcing relatively oftentrade arrangements, agreements,
frameworks. They were inStockholm meeting with China.
What do we know, about thingsthat have come out of there, if
(03:19):
anything at all?
Naomi Blohm (03:20):
Well, right now the rumor mill is suggesting, that
we're gonna have another ninetyday extension on our trade
negotiations with China. So thatis what came across from US
Treasury Secretary thisafternoon. The markets overall,
you know, I think part of thatmight be priced into the market
(03:42):
in a sense. That seems to be themojo for these trade deals. Just
of extend deadlines, see whatkind of trade deals can happen.
For China, of course, that wouldallow them time to know where
our US crop is or isn't, andthat might be part of the
missing piece of their puzzle toknow how aggressive they need to
(04:02):
be on some of their sales. ButPresident Trump would have to
approve that, so We'll see ifthere's more information on that
later this week, and of course,waiting to hear how, just in
general, the August 1 tradetariff deadlines are going to be
met and who is going to benegotiating week. So we might
see grain markets continue tohold in this kind of quiet
(04:25):
pattern for the moment till weget a better better
understanding of the trade dealsand what that would mean for our
export demand.
Todd Gleason (04:32):
This would lead the reciprocal tariffs that
China has had in place, two setsactually, one, that had been in
place, I think since 2018, '19,and then a new set that was put
on in January for both corn andsoybeans additionally added
together that is. So that wouldput us through a large part of
(04:53):
the marketing seasonparticularly for soybeans to
China. Do you think the tradewill come to some realization of
that? Should the news as rumorsbecome news, that is?
Naomi Blohm (05:05):
Well, I think traders are really gonna wanna
try and more be focused on aspecific quantity of export
sales versus just the rhetoricof what a trade deal says from
the standpoint of percentages.We wanna know how many beans
China is buying because so farthey haven't bought anything for
the new crop beans, and that'swhat traders are anxious about.
(05:28):
On August 12 WASDE report, we'llsee. Is the USDA gonna stick
with the number that they havefor exports, closer to that
1,700,000,000 bushel number forexports out that we're gonna be
sending out to the world? Sowill the USDA still stick with
that number on the August WASDE,or are they gonna change it?
Traders wanna see hard numbersfrom China and some official
(05:52):
purchases on morning exportsales and the weekly export
sales.
Todd Gleason (05:56):
Now let's talk about old crop. For corn
particularly, there may be somesoybeans left out there as well
to sell. Producers, were hopingto be able to catch a seasonal.
We talked about that with you,through the month of May, June,
and July that did not developprimarily because the weather
was so darn good in much of thattime frame. Now they are faced
(06:21):
with a futures market that islooking forward and really not
worried about rationing suppliesat this point.
How do they manage the localbasis POPs against what they see
quite likely as a futures pricethey are unwilling to take?
Naomi Blohm (06:41):
Yeah. That's gonna be a challenge. So the futures
market probably continues todrift lower. But anytime your
local basis market might see apop as far as maybe an ethanol
plant wanting to just get somegrain in for for the next couple
weeks, that might be your bestopportunity if you have corn in
the bin that needs to get movedbefore this new harvest comes to
(07:03):
town. With the harvest expectedto be big, some of these end
users are going to probably keeptheir basis a little bit wider
for as long as they can knowingthat there's a big crop coming.
So, unfortunately, I don't havea lot of great news to be able
to share, on that on that front.It would it would take a a
(07:24):
really unforeseen disaster toshow up on the yields in order
to make end users panic. Sowhatever you can see a slight
basis play, maybe use that toyour advantage. But right now,
from a seasonal perspective,from a technical perspective,
corn prices probably continue todrift sideways to lower for
(07:44):
another few weeks, and we'llstart to look for that harvest
low in the August.
Todd Gleason (07:49):
So you think the contract low we have in place
may not be the harvest low atthis time?
Naomi Blohm (07:54):
Oh, I think we're going lower yet, unfortunately.
Just from a technicalperspective, when I look at the
daily chart of September cornfutures, with today's move
lower, we broke a short termsupport area, and the next
downside target looks to beabout $3.75 for the September
corn chart. So, that's still, wefinished today around three
(08:15):
eighty nine, so we've got alittle bit lower to go. And I
think it'll be kind of just aslow drift lower, but from a
technical standpoint, the RSI,the stochastics on daily charts
are suggesting that there wouldbe more room to go lower before
we have a reason to turn aroundand get higher.
Todd Gleason (08:34):
And do you have a similar set of numbers for
soybeans?
Naomi Blohm (08:38):
Yeah. So looking with November new support at the
$10 area, my best guess would bethat beans stay in a little
short term range bound patternwhere $10 is support and $10.25
is resistance just until we geta better idea. More of the
August weather, how the podfilling might be going, and what
(08:59):
the yield potential could be.And then a lot of it is gonna
hinge on this August WASDEreport. We're gonna see if the
USDA just leaves the soybeanyield unchanged.
That's what we wanna watch. Andwe also really, of course, as I
said earlier, need to be keepingan eye on the exports for
soybeans. But between now andthat August, WASDE, I think
prices are gonna be a little bitcalm, maybe a little bit benign,
(09:21):
and just trade in a lacklustersideways pattern.
Todd Gleason (09:24):
Thank you much, Naomi. I appreciate it.
Naomi Blohm (09:26):
Thank you.
Todd Gleason (09:27):
That's Naomi Bloom. She is with
totalfarmmarketing.com. Intoday's agricultural news, house
ag chair GT Thompson is vowinghis panel will take up a
correction to California'sproposition 12 that forces hog
producers around the nation tomeet that state's sow pen size
(09:51):
standards. The supreme court in2023 narrowly upheld prop 12
despite the constitution'scommerce clause and said it's up
to congress to fix thenationwide hog industry impact
of California's referendum.Thompson says his committee will
try to do just that afterincluding a fix in last year's
stalled farm bill.
GT Thompson (10:11):
This committee will consider a measured correction
that preserves states' rights tocontrol their internal
agriculture practices, willprotect interstate commerce, and
preserve states' animal healthregulations and laws.
Todd Gleason (10:26):
The National Pork Producers Council and others
fought California all the way tothe supreme court. Council VP
and Ohio pork producer, PatrickHoard, told the ag committee.
Patrick Horde (10:37):
I am here to say that prop 12 and an unmitigated
regulatory patchwork threatensour farm. Prop 12 makes it a
crime in California to selluncooked whole pork meat from
the offspring of sows thataren't raised according to the
state's arbitrary housingstandards.
Todd Gleason (10:52):
Standards that hoard complaints raise costs for
producers across the country,and the American Veterinarian
Medical Association says do notobjectively improve animal
welfare. NPPC economist HollyCook says producers need to sell
to California's 40,000,000consumers, but now there's less
profit in doing so.
Holly Cook (11:13):
For farms with group pen gestation systems,
converting barns to B compliantmay mean a 30 to 40% decline in
production, a result of havingfewer sows combined with reduced
efficiencies. Farms may alsoface higher average costs for
utilities, veterinary care,labor, and feed, and they'll
have to spread their fixed costsout over fewer weaned pigs
produced.
Todd Gleason (11:33):
The same study by Iowa State and University of
Minnesota found it would takepremiums of 5 to $8 per pig to
break even when funding new Prop12 compliant barns. The USDA
found retail pork prices inCalifornia are now up by more
than 20% and consumption is downby double digits. Let's stay
(11:53):
with the farm bill with morefederal assistance available for
specialty crop growers. Of late,the importance of getting a new
farm bill completed may haveeased, but only by a little bit,
Riley Boucher, vice president ofthe Northwest Horticulture
Council says, for agriculture asa whole, a new farm bill is very
important and shouldn't get putoff any longer.
Riley Bushue (12:15):
There's been a lot of work done on getting at least
a partial farm bill done, butnothing direct as it relates to
specialty crops in terms ofdirect payment programs like
this. From our perspective, cropinsurance is incredibly valuable
for our growers, pretty widelyutilized in our industry. And so
maintaining that was a priorityfor us, making sure that those
kind of risk management toolsare available.
Todd Gleason (12:36):
But with all the economic challenges of late,
Boucher says their focus hasbeen more on what USDA can do to
help growers right now.
Riley Bushue (12:43):
To my knowledge at this moment, I mean, USDA is
kinda focused on getting therest of the mask payments out,
this disaster money out asrapidly as it can. And so that's
kind of front center right now.
Todd Gleason (12:53):
As for the one big beautiful bill act, some of the
farm bill related assistance itbrought, Boucher says, that was
great to see.
Riley Bushue (13:00):
It's certainly good to get a good chunk of that
done. We work with folks fromthe potato industry and others,
actually, specialty cropentities through a group called
the Specialty Crop Farm BillAlliance that pursues priorities
for the specialty crop industryas a whole.
Todd Gleason (13:13):
Again, Riley Bouchou is with the Northwest
Horticulture Council. And that'sa look at today's Agricultural
News. We're now joined by DanO'Brien from Kansas State
(13:35):
University. You can find himonline at agmanager.info and
KSUgrains thanks Dan for beingwith us today to talk about the
ethanol and biodieselindustries. Let's start with, a
slide that you sent to me, onethanol prices.
(13:56):
What does it tell you about thismarketplace? Because of course
it shows kind of a dramatic dropsince the 2022 timeline. Does
this mean something to you otherthan we had much higher corn
prices in that era?
Dan O'Brien (14:13):
Well, I think now in the when you look at where
we're at, we're a somewhatstable industry. You know, the
renewable fuel standard hasn'tchanged for a while. We've we're
aiming at about 15,000,000,000,although I 15,000,000,000
gallons annually of of ethanolproduction, but gen generally
pretty stable. So we we've seenhere since about 2024 that we're
(14:36):
kinda bouncing around a dollar75, dollar 76, dollar 80. So we
we're we're seeing a fairlystable ethanol market.
And, of course, we profitabilityor lack thereof is is on the
margin in in that industry. Sowe're just as you look right
now, we've got ethanol pricesin, well, in in Iowa as kind of
(14:58):
as a bellwether. Eth ethanolprices at about a dollar 63, and
the cost of production withlower corn prices here in the
especially last few months isabout a dollar 55. So you you
bring the the price action thatyou're talking about in into
play with a little bit lowercorn input costs, and you've got
(15:20):
now a a profit projected forJuly of about 8¢ a gallon for
ethanol production. That's allwith corn oil in in in included
on the sales.
So that and that follows thetime frame, which was it's it's
consistent with the matureindustry where we were losing
from 1 to 16¢ a gallon for aboutseven, eight months prior
Naomi Blohm (15:39):
to that.
Dan O'Brien (15:40):
So and we could you and I were talking before we
came on air about about, gosh,we're in the middle of summer
driving season. You'd expect thepossibility of of of something
like this happening. Yet whenyou look back, it could have all
been derailed if we'd had a dryspell and corn market had been
up. But but it's not. So sowe're at a situation right now
(16:01):
where the ethanol plants are areholding up holding up decently
profit wise.
And in the in terms of corn andethanol market outlook, you will
will come into fall. We couldsee some weakening perhaps of
the of ethanol prices, but wealso could see if if unless
something derails the the strongproduction prospects that we
(16:24):
have for corn, probably seelower corn prices as well. So I
I it looks like right now, froma judicious cautious point of
view, that we're looking atabout a breakeven to a bit of a
profit situation and for forethanol production heading from
now into fall. A lot of thatpredicated on on sideways
sideways ethanol markets,sideways a little bit weaker.
(16:48):
And if anything right now again,unless we're surprised, moderate
to lower corn pry moderatelylower corn prices from from this
point on.
So we'll see where all thatgoes. The it's interesting when
you break out where the whatwhere's the profitability coming
in in the terms of the ethanolplant income streams. So here
for the month of July so far,about a dollar 63 per gallon for
(17:11):
ethanol cost. Distillers grainsactually contributes about 38¢
revenue per gallon by the timeyou you divide that out over the
units involved. Corn oil, about15¢ a gallon.
Todd Gleason (17:22):
That's interesting to see how that breaks out.
Thank you for that. Is thereanything else that we ought to
take up in the biofuels sector?
Dan O'Brien (17:31):
Another thing we'd mentioned before we came on air
is that with the with the recentannouncement by the EPA of their
renewable fuel standard changes,again, not much change in
ethanol at all, but but quite abit of improvement, quite a bit
quite a bit higher goal set forthe use of biodiesel. And USDA
(17:52):
is reflecting that in the recentJuly 11 WASDE report. They they
put put soybean crush, raised itto by 50,000,050 bushels up to
2,540,000,000.00. And, you know,so over the last several years
in the 2324 marketing year,crushed about 2,285,000,000.000.
(18:13):
The next year, 2425 marketingyear, again, will start
September 1 up to2,420,000,000.00.
Now we're projecting2,540,000,000.00.
Todd Gleason (18:21):
Hey, Dan. Thank you. That's Dan O'Brien. He is
with Kansas State UniversityExtension. You can find him
online and access KSU grains oryou can check out agmanager.info
that's agmanager.info online.
(18:51):
Let's turn our attention now tothe weather forecast. Dundee is
here. With Day Weather, he is inCheyenne, Wyoming. What's the
weather like where you aretoday? I'm expecting some cool
weather here later in the week.
Is it working our its way fromthe West to here or in some
other directions?
Don Day (19:07):
Yeah. No. Part of that coolness is showing up and it's
forming in the form of a lot ofcloud. A lot of subtropical
moisture has started to comeback up again, moving all the
way from Central America andMexico. And as we saw last night
quite a bit of severe weatheracross South Dakota, parts of
Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowaand that subtropical moisture
(19:31):
going around the high that'sover the Central and Eastern
parts of The United States willcontinue to feed more shower and
thunderstorm development hereover the next five to seven days
and we're also going to see, youmentioned cooler weather, it is
going to allow a shift to happenacross really all of North
America that will lead to in theseven day period coming on up,
(19:54):
we're just going to do going togo in reverse.
We're going see temperaturesgoing the other way.
Temperatures look to be belowaverage as we put an end to this
current heat spell.
Todd Gleason (20:03):
Speaking of the events that took place late
yesterday afternoon and lastnight, were any of those of
substantial enough problem thatit created what the
meteorologist would call aderecho?
Don Day (20:19):
Yeah, it was a setup that causes derecho's where we
had more reports of wind damagethan any other reports from
straight line winds. Windsgusting eighty, ninety miles an
hour. More wind reports ofdamage than, let's say, hail. We
had three tornadoes, but thejust the strong wind gust kind
(20:43):
of overshadowed the tornadoactivity. We may very well see a
similar situation for parts ofNebraska and Western parts of
Iowa tonight as there will be alittle bit of a repeat
performance.
Todd Gleason (20:54):
Okay. Looking forward, you talked about some
of the cooler weather coming in.What do you see next week then?
Don Day (21:00):
Well, what we'll see is, first of all, another round
of shower and thunderstormactivity, especially for the
northern and northwest areas ofthe Core Belt. As the cooler air
starts to settle in as we gethere to the end of the week and
the weekend and into early nextweek, we still see rain chances.
Although I think we'll see ashift of the better rain chances
(21:20):
more into the eastern andsouthern areas of the Corn Belt
as initially some of this coolerair will bring in some drier air
as well.
Todd Gleason (21:27):
Anything else we should be watching?
Don Day (21:29):
Let's keep an eye on the Southeast United States as
we get out to around, let's saythe August, maybe a little
before then, we might very wellsee some tropical storm,
tropical depression activityeither in the Southeastern Coast
Of The United States or into TheGulf.
Todd Gleason (21:45):
Thank you very much, Don.
Don Day (21:46):
Thank you.
Todd Gleason (21:47):
Dundee is with day weather in Cheyenne, Wyoming.
Joined us on this Tuesdayedition of the closing report
from Illinois Public Media. Itis public radio for the farming
world. Some things to keep trackof in our calendar of events,
and this first one you'll alsofind on the website in the
articles list. The EmpoweringSoybean Producers webinar is
(22:09):
tomorrow.
It starts at nine a. M. Runsthrough the noon hour. You can
still sign up for it today or atleast earlier this morning you
could, and I'm sure you stillcan at this point. And then on
Thursday, the Illinois SoybeanAssociation will hold its
Illinois soy legislative townhall in Bloomington.
(22:29):
There's a way through theIllinois Soybean Association to
sign up for that event. And at11AM, I'll host a one big
beautiful bill axed tax changeswebinar with Bob Ray, the
strategic planning you'll needto take for your farming
operation this year and into thefuture as the changes will be
(22:50):
put into place from thatlegislative bill signed earlier
this month. All of these detailsare in our website. Look into
the calendar of events at thebottom of the page. They're all
three marked in red.
You have a good afternoon. I'mIllinois Extension's Todd
Gleason.
From the land to Grant University in Urbana
Champaign, Illinois. This is theclosing market reported as the
July 2025 by my extension's ToddGleason. Coming up, we'll talk
about the commodity markets withNaomi Bloem. She's at
totalfarmmarketing.com out ofWest Bend, Wisconsin. I'll bring
you up to speed on some of theag news for the afternoon, and
(00:20):
we'll hear from Dan O'Brien atKansas State University.
He'll explore with us the topicof biofuels, ethanol in
particular, as well as renewablediesel, and then we'll turn our
attention to the weatherforecast as we work through the
end of the program with Don Dayat Day Weather in Cheyenne,
Wyoming on this Tuesday editionto the closing market report
(00:42):
from Illinois Public Media. Itis public radio for the farming
world celebrating forty years ofthis program and more than
10,000 episodes.
announce (00:53):
Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by
University of IllinoisExtension.
Todd Gleason (00:58):
September corn for the day settled at $3.89 and a
quarter. That was down 4 and ahalf cents. December at $4.11,
three lower, and the March at$4.28 and three quarters down 2
and a half cents. Augustsoybeans, $9.81 and 3 quarters,
seven lower. September downthree at $9.89 and a half, and
new crop November soybeans,$10.09 and a half cents, 2¢
(01:20):
lower.
Bean meal futures down $3.20.The bean oil up 99¢. Wheat
futures soft red down eight andthree quarters. The settlement
price at $5.50. The hard red at$5.39 and a half in the December
down 7 and a quarter cents.
Live cattle futures in Chicagoat a dollar 67 and a half
(01:40):
higher. The feeder cattle $2.52and a half cents higher and lean
hogs up $2.15 that of course 400pounds. Naomi Blohm of
totalfarmmarketing.com out ofWest Bend Wisconsin now joins
us. Thank you Naomi for beingwith us. The northern part of
the reaches of our listeningarea, and you would be above
(02:03):
that but still able to tune usin if you really wanted to
listen to a lot of static.
Had a lot of wind in the arealast night from the storms. Did
you see any of that in your partof Wisconsin?
Naomi Blohm (02:16):
So where we are, no. We had no rain specifically
where I live, but what I hadheard was some of the damage
that was in the Northwest Cornerof Iowa with some corn down,
some bins with damage as well.We're trying to understand how
extensive that is. But for otherparts of the Midwest, it was
(02:42):
just a nice regular summerthunderstorm. So that's why the
market didn't really respond toany potential storm damage for
the moment.
Traders continue just to befocused overall on how big that
crop really probably is overall.
Todd Gleason (02:58):
In the last week, and going into the August 1 self
imposed deadline, the Trumpadministration has been
announcing relatively oftentrade arrangements, agreements,
frameworks. They were inStockholm meeting with China.
What do we know, about thingsthat have come out of there, if
(03:19):
anything at all?
Naomi Blohm (03:20):
Well, right now the rumor mill is suggesting, that
we're gonna have another ninetyday extension on our trade
negotiations with China. So thatis what came across from US
Treasury Secretary thisafternoon. The markets overall,
you know, I think part of thatmight be priced into the market
(03:42):
in a sense. That seems to be themojo for these trade deals. Just
of extend deadlines, see whatkind of trade deals can happen.
For China, of course, that wouldallow them time to know where
our US crop is or isn't, andthat might be part of the
missing piece of their puzzle toknow how aggressive they need to
(04:02):
be on some of their sales. ButPresident Trump would have to
approve that, so We'll see ifthere's more information on that
later this week, and of course,waiting to hear how, just in
general, the August 1 tradetariff deadlines are going to be
met and who is going to benegotiating week. So we might
see grain markets continue tohold in this kind of quiet
(04:25):
pattern for the moment till weget a better better
understanding of the trade dealsand what that would mean for our
export demand.
Todd Gleason (04:32):
This would lead the reciprocal tariffs that
China has had in place, two setsactually, one, that had been in
place, I think since 2018, '19,and then a new set that was put
on in January for both corn andsoybeans additionally added
together that is. So that wouldput us through a large part of
(04:53):
the marketing seasonparticularly for soybeans to
China. Do you think the tradewill come to some realization of
that? Should the news as rumorsbecome news, that is?
Naomi Blohm (05:05):
Well, I think traders are really gonna wanna
try and more be focused on aspecific quantity of export
sales versus just the rhetoricof what a trade deal says from
the standpoint of percentages.We wanna know how many beans
China is buying because so farthey haven't bought anything for
the new crop beans, and that'swhat traders are anxious about.
(05:28):
On August 12 WASDE report, we'llsee. Is the USDA gonna stick
with the number that they havefor exports, closer to that
1,700,000,000 bushel number forexports out that we're gonna be
sending out to the world? Sowill the USDA still stick with
that number on the August WASDE,or are they gonna change it?
Traders wanna see hard numbersfrom China and some official
(05:52):
purchases on morning exportsales and the weekly export
sales.
Todd Gleason (05:56):
Now let's talk about old crop. For corn
particularly, there may be somesoybeans left out there as well
to sell. Producers, were hopingto be able to catch a seasonal.
We talked about that with you,through the month of May, June,
and July that did not developprimarily because the weather
was so darn good in much of thattime frame. Now they are faced
(06:21):
with a futures market that islooking forward and really not
worried about rationing suppliesat this point.
How do they manage the localbasis POPs against what they see
quite likely as a futures pricethey are unwilling to take?
Naomi Blohm (06:41):
Yeah. That's gonna be a challenge. So the futures
market probably continues todrift lower. But anytime your
local basis market might see apop as far as maybe an ethanol
plant wanting to just get somegrain in for for the next couple
weeks, that might be your bestopportunity if you have corn in
the bin that needs to get movedbefore this new harvest comes to
(07:03):
town. With the harvest expectedto be big, some of these end
users are going to probably keeptheir basis a little bit wider
for as long as they can knowingthat there's a big crop coming.
So, unfortunately, I don't havea lot of great news to be able
to share, on that on that front.It would it would take a a
(07:24):
really unforeseen disaster toshow up on the yields in order
to make end users panic. Sowhatever you can see a slight
basis play, maybe use that toyour advantage. But right now,
from a seasonal perspective,from a technical perspective,
corn prices probably continue todrift sideways to lower for
(07:44):
another few weeks, and we'llstart to look for that harvest
low in the August.
Todd Gleason (07:49):
So you think the contract low we have in place
may not be the harvest low atthis time?
Naomi Blohm (07:54):
Oh, I think we're going lower yet, unfortunately.
Just from a technicalperspective, when I look at the
daily chart of September cornfutures, with today's move
lower, we broke a short termsupport area, and the next
downside target looks to beabout $3.75 for the September
corn chart. So, that's still, wefinished today around three
(08:15):
eighty nine, so we've got alittle bit lower to go. And I
think it'll be kind of just aslow drift lower, but from a
technical standpoint, the RSI,the stochastics on daily charts
are suggesting that there wouldbe more room to go lower before
we have a reason to turn aroundand get higher.
Todd Gleason (08:34):
And do you have a similar set of numbers for
soybeans?
Naomi Blohm (08:38):
Yeah. So looking with November new support at the
$10 area, my best guess would bethat beans stay in a little
short term range bound patternwhere $10 is support and $10.25
is resistance just until we geta better idea. More of the
August weather, how the podfilling might be going, and what
(08:59):
the yield potential could be.And then a lot of it is gonna
hinge on this August WASDEreport. We're gonna see if the
USDA just leaves the soybeanyield unchanged.
That's what we wanna watch. Andwe also really, of course, as I
said earlier, need to be keepingan eye on the exports for
soybeans. But between now andthat August, WASDE, I think
prices are gonna be a little bitcalm, maybe a little bit benign,
(09:21):
and just trade in a lacklustersideways pattern.
Todd Gleason (09:24):
Thank you much, Naomi. I appreciate it.
Naomi Blohm (09:26):
Thank you.
Todd Gleason (09:27):
That's Naomi Bloom. She is with
totalfarmmarketing.com. Intoday's agricultural news, house
ag chair GT Thompson is vowinghis panel will take up a
correction to California'sproposition 12 that forces hog
producers around the nation tomeet that state's sow pen size
(09:51):
standards. The supreme court in2023 narrowly upheld prop 12
despite the constitution'scommerce clause and said it's up
to congress to fix thenationwide hog industry impact
of California's referendum.Thompson says his committee will
try to do just that afterincluding a fix in last year's
stalled farm bill.
GT Thompson (10:11):
This committee will consider a measured correction
that preserves states' rights tocontrol their internal
agriculture practices, willprotect interstate commerce, and
preserve states' animal healthregulations and laws.
Todd Gleason (10:26):
The National Pork Producers Council and others
fought California all the way tothe supreme court. Council VP
and Ohio pork producer, PatrickHoard, told the ag committee.
Patrick Horde (10:37):
I am here to say that prop 12 and an unmitigated
regulatory patchwork threatensour farm. Prop 12 makes it a
crime in California to selluncooked whole pork meat from
the offspring of sows thataren't raised according to the
state's arbitrary housingstandards.
Todd Gleason (10:52):
Standards that hoard complaints raise costs for
producers across the country,and the American Veterinarian
Medical Association says do notobjectively improve animal
welfare. NPPC economist HollyCook says producers need to sell
to California's 40,000,000consumers, but now there's less
profit in doing so.
Holly Cook (11:13):
For farms with group pen gestation systems,
converting barns to B compliantmay mean a 30 to 40% decline in
production, a result of havingfewer sows combined with reduced
efficiencies. Farms may alsoface higher average costs for
utilities, veterinary care,labor, and feed, and they'll
have to spread their fixed costsout over fewer weaned pigs
produced.
Todd Gleason (11:33):
The same study by Iowa State and University of
Minnesota found it would takepremiums of 5 to $8 per pig to
break even when funding new Prop12 compliant barns. The USDA
found retail pork prices inCalifornia are now up by more
than 20% and consumption is downby double digits. Let's stay
(11:53):
with the farm bill with morefederal assistance available for
specialty crop growers. Of late,the importance of getting a new
farm bill completed may haveeased, but only by a little bit,
Riley Boucher, vice president ofthe Northwest Horticulture
Council says, for agriculture asa whole, a new farm bill is very
important and shouldn't get putoff any longer.
Riley Bushue (12:15):
There's been a lot of work done on getting at least
a partial farm bill done, butnothing direct as it relates to
specialty crops in terms ofdirect payment programs like
this. From our perspective, cropinsurance is incredibly valuable
for our growers, pretty widelyutilized in our industry. And so
maintaining that was a priorityfor us, making sure that those
kind of risk management toolsare available.
Todd Gleason (12:36):
But with all the economic challenges of late,
Boucher says their focus hasbeen more on what USDA can do to
help growers right now.
Riley Bushue (12:43):
To my knowledge at this moment, I mean, USDA is
kinda focused on getting therest of the mask payments out,
this disaster money out asrapidly as it can. And so that's
kind of front center right now.
Todd Gleason (12:53):
As for the one big beautiful bill act, some of the
farm bill related assistance itbrought, Boucher says, that was
great to see.
Riley Bushue (13:00):
It's certainly good to get a good chunk of that
done. We work with folks fromthe potato industry and others,
actually, specialty cropentities through a group called
the Specialty Crop Farm BillAlliance that pursues priorities
for the specialty crop industryas a whole.
Todd Gleason (13:13):
Again, Riley Bouchou is with the Northwest
Horticulture Council. And that'sa look at today's Agricultural
News. We're now joined by DanO'Brien from Kansas State
(13:35):
University. You can find himonline at agmanager.info and
KSUgrains thanks Dan for beingwith us today to talk about the
ethanol and biodieselindustries. Let's start with, a
slide that you sent to me, onethanol prices.
(13:56):
What does it tell you about thismarketplace? Because of course
it shows kind of a dramatic dropsince the 2022 timeline. Does
this mean something to you otherthan we had much higher corn
prices in that era?
Dan O'Brien (14:13):
Well, I think now in the when you look at where
we're at, we're a somewhatstable industry. You know, the
renewable fuel standard hasn'tchanged for a while. We've we're
aiming at about 15,000,000,000,although I 15,000,000,000
gallons annually of of ethanolproduction, but gen generally
pretty stable. So we we've seenhere since about 2024 that we're
(14:36):
kinda bouncing around a dollar75, dollar 76, dollar 80. So we
we're we're seeing a fairlystable ethanol market.
And, of course, we profitabilityor lack thereof is is on the
margin in in that industry. Sowe're just as you look right
now, we've got ethanol pricesin, well, in in Iowa as kind of
(14:58):
as a bellwether. Eth ethanolprices at about a dollar 63, and
the cost of production withlower corn prices here in the
especially last few months isabout a dollar 55. So you you
bring the the price action thatyou're talking about in into
play with a little bit lowercorn input costs, and you've got
(15:20):
now a a profit projected forJuly of about 8¢ a gallon for
ethanol production. That's allwith corn oil in in in included
on the sales.
So that and that follows thetime frame, which was it's it's
consistent with the matureindustry where we were losing
from 1 to 16¢ a gallon for aboutseven, eight months prior
Naomi Blohm (15:39):
to that.
Dan O'Brien (15:40):
So and we could you and I were talking before we
came on air about about, gosh,we're in the middle of summer
driving season. You'd expect thepossibility of of of something
like this happening. Yet whenyou look back, it could have all
been derailed if we'd had a dryspell and corn market had been
up. But but it's not. So sowe're at a situation right now
(16:01):
where the ethanol plants are areholding up holding up decently
profit wise.
And in the in terms of corn andethanol market outlook, you will
will come into fall. We couldsee some weakening perhaps of
the of ethanol prices, but wealso could see if if unless
something derails the the strongproduction prospects that we
(16:24):
have for corn, probably seelower corn prices as well. So I
I it looks like right now, froma judicious cautious point of
view, that we're looking atabout a breakeven to a bit of a
profit situation and for forethanol production heading from
now into fall. A lot of thatpredicated on on sideways
sideways ethanol markets,sideways a little bit weaker.
(16:48):
And if anything right now again,unless we're surprised, moderate
to lower corn pry moderatelylower corn prices from from this
point on.
So we'll see where all thatgoes. The it's interesting when
you break out where the whatwhere's the profitability coming
in in the terms of the ethanolplant income streams. So here
for the month of July so far,about a dollar 63 per gallon for
(17:11):
ethanol cost. Distillers grainsactually contributes about 38¢
revenue per gallon by the timeyou you divide that out over the
units involved. Corn oil, about15¢ a gallon.
Todd Gleason (17:22):
That's interesting to see how that breaks out.
Thank you for that. Is thereanything else that we ought to
take up in the biofuels sector?
Dan O'Brien (17:31):
Another thing we'd mentioned before we came on air
is that with the with the recentannouncement by the EPA of their
renewable fuel standard changes,again, not much change in
ethanol at all, but but quite abit of improvement, quite a bit
quite a bit higher goal set forthe use of biodiesel. And USDA
(17:52):
is reflecting that in the recentJuly 11 WASDE report. They they
put put soybean crush, raised itto by 50,000,050 bushels up to
2,540,000,000.00. And, you know,so over the last several years
in the 2324 marketing year,crushed about 2,285,000,000.000.
(18:13):
The next year, 2425 marketingyear, again, will start
September 1 up to2,420,000,000.00.
Now we're projecting2,540,000,000.00.
Todd Gleason (18:21):
Hey, Dan. Thank you. That's Dan O'Brien. He is
with Kansas State UniversityExtension. You can find him
online and access KSU grains oryou can check out agmanager.info
that's agmanager.info online.
(18:51):
Let's turn our attention now tothe weather forecast. Dundee is
here. With Day Weather, he is inCheyenne, Wyoming. What's the
weather like where you aretoday? I'm expecting some cool
weather here later in the week.
Is it working our its way fromthe West to here or in some
other directions?
Don Day (19:07):
Yeah. No. Part of that coolness is showing up and it's
forming in the form of a lot ofcloud. A lot of subtropical
moisture has started to comeback up again, moving all the
way from Central America andMexico. And as we saw last night
quite a bit of severe weatheracross South Dakota, parts of
Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowaand that subtropical moisture
(19:31):
going around the high that'sover the Central and Eastern
parts of The United States willcontinue to feed more shower and
thunderstorm development hereover the next five to seven days
and we're also going to see, youmentioned cooler weather, it is
going to allow a shift to happenacross really all of North
America that will lead to in theseven day period coming on up,
(19:54):
we're just going to do going togo in reverse.
We're going see temperaturesgoing the other way.
Temperatures look to be belowaverage as we put an end to this
current heat spell.
Todd Gleason (20:03):
Speaking of the events that took place late
yesterday afternoon and lastnight, were any of those of
substantial enough problem thatit created what the
meteorologist would call aderecho?
Don Day (20:19):
Yeah, it was a setup that causes derecho's where we
had more reports of wind damagethan any other reports from
straight line winds. Windsgusting eighty, ninety miles an
hour. More wind reports ofdamage than, let's say, hail. We
had three tornadoes, but thejust the strong wind gust kind
(20:43):
of overshadowed the tornadoactivity. We may very well see a
similar situation for parts ofNebraska and Western parts of
Iowa tonight as there will be alittle bit of a repeat
performance.
Todd Gleason (20:54):
Okay. Looking forward, you talked about some
of the cooler weather coming in.What do you see next week then?
Don Day (21:00):
Well, what we'll see is, first of all, another round
of shower and thunderstormactivity, especially for the
northern and northwest areas ofthe Core Belt. As the cooler air
starts to settle in as we gethere to the end of the week and
the weekend and into early nextweek, we still see rain chances.
Although I think we'll see ashift of the better rain chances
(21:20):
more into the eastern andsouthern areas of the Corn Belt
as initially some of this coolerair will bring in some drier air
as well.
Todd Gleason (21:27):
Anything else we should be watching?
Don Day (21:29):
Let's keep an eye on the Southeast United States as
we get out to around, let's saythe August, maybe a little
before then, we might very wellsee some tropical storm,
tropical depression activityeither in the Southeastern Coast
Of The United States or into TheGulf.
Todd Gleason (21:45):
Thank you very much, Don.
Don Day (21:46):
Thank you.
Todd Gleason (21:47):
Dundee is with day weather in Cheyenne, Wyoming.
Joined us on this Tuesdayedition of the closing report
from Illinois Public Media. Itis public radio for the farming
world. Some things to keep trackof in our calendar of events,
and this first one you'll alsofind on the website in the
articles list. The EmpoweringSoybean Producers webinar is
(22:09):
tomorrow.
It starts at nine a. M. Runsthrough the noon hour. You can
still sign up for it today or atleast earlier this morning you
could, and I'm sure you stillcan at this point. And then on
Thursday, the Illinois SoybeanAssociation will hold its
Illinois soy legislative townhall in Bloomington.
(22:29):
There's a way through theIllinois Soybean Association to
sign up for that event. And at11AM, I'll host a one big
beautiful bill axed tax changeswebinar with Bob Ray, the
strategic planning you'll needto take for your farming
operation this year and into thefuture as the changes will be
(22:50):
put into place from thatlegislative bill signed earlier
this month. All of these detailsare in our website. Look into
the calendar of events at thebottom of the page. They're all
three marked in red.
You have a good afternoon. I'mIllinois Extension's Todd
Gleason.
Popular Podcasts
24/7 News: The Latest
The latest news in 4 minutes updated every hour, every day.
Crime Junkie
Does hearing about a true crime case always leave you scouring the internet for the truth behind the story? Dive into your next mystery with Crime Junkie. Every Monday, join your host Ashley Flowers as she unravels all the details of infamous and underreported true crime cases with her best friend Brit Prawat. From cold cases to missing persons and heroes in our community who seek justice, Crime Junkie is your destination for theories and stories you won’t hear anywhere else. Whether you're a seasoned true crime enthusiast or new to the genre, you'll find yourself on the edge of your seat awaiting a new episode every Monday. If you can never get enough true crime... Congratulations, you’ve found your people. Follow to join a community of Crime Junkies! Crime Junkie is presented by audiochuck Media Company.
The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show
The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show. Clay Travis and Buck Sexton tackle the biggest stories in news, politics and current events with intelligence and humor. From the border crisis, to the madness of cancel culture and far-left missteps, Clay and Buck guide listeners through the latest headlines and hot topics with fun and entertaining conversations and opinions.