July 30, 2025 • 23 mins
- Greg Johnson, TGM TotalGrainMarketing.com
- David Lakeman, IDOA Cannabis & Hemp Div Mngr
- Drew Lerner, WorldWeather.cc
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Todd Gleason (00:00):
From the Land Grant University at Urbana
Champaign, Illinois. This is theclosing market report. It is the
July 2025. I'm extension's ToddGleason. Coming up, we'll talk
about the commodity markets withGreg Johnson.
He's a TGM. That's total grainmarketing here in Champaign
County. We'll turn our attentionin the middle of the show to the
(00:20):
Hemp Research Open House heldlast week right here on this
campus and talk about theindustrial uses for hemp. And
then as we close out our time,we'll discuss the weather
forecast too, not only here, butacross the planet with Drew
Lerner at World WeatherIncorporated on this Wednesday
edition of the closing marketreport from Illinois Public
Media. It is public radio forthe farming world online on
(00:44):
demand at willag.0rg.
Todd Gleason services are madeavailable to w I l l by
University of IllinoisExtension. September corn for
the day at $3.91 and 3 quarters.A settlement price up 2 and a
half cents. December at $4.12and a quarter, a penny a quarter
higher, and the March at $4.29and a half, 3 quarters of a cent
(01:07):
higher. Soybeans in the August,14 lower at $9.67 and 3
quarters.
September, nine 75 and threequarters down thirteen and three
quarters. And November beans at$9.95 and 3 quarters, 13 and 3
quarters of a lower. Bean mealfutures down a buck for the day.
The bean oil, a dollar and 4¢lower, and the wheat futures
(01:27):
soft red in the December at$5.44 to quarter, 5 and 3
quarters of a cent lower. Thehard red December at $5.42 and a
quarter.
It finished two and threequarters of a cent lower on this
Wednesday afternoon. GregJohnson from TGM Total Grain
Marketing, the elevator righthere in Champaign County that
(01:47):
belongs to FS Gro. Mark nowjoins us to discuss the
marketplace. Hi, Greg. Thanksfor being with us on another
Wednesday.
Tell me about the market as yousee it today.
Greg Johnson (01:58):
The market is, responding to the weather. We
continue to get rains. There wassome high wind damage up in
parts of the Dakotas and Iowa,but the market seems to think
that that was a relativelynarrow band where those high
winds went through. And so Ithink the feeling that the
(02:19):
market is, is that the rainbenefited more than what the
winds hurt the crop. So based oncrop ratings, we're looking at
some of the highest ratingswe've ever seen and some of the
private analysts that use thosegood to excellent ratings, are
coming up with anywhere betweenone hundred and eighty three and
one hundred and eighty sixbushels to the acre.
(02:41):
We are nine trading days awayfrom the next USDA report when
they will probably change theyield or could change the yield,
and we'll see how much theyincrease it from 181, see if
they go to 183 or if they goeven higher than that. But we're
nine days away from that.Another negative, you know, the
government lowered feed demandin the July report by 75,000,000
(03:05):
bushels. They'll probably needto lower the feed demand again.
Cattle on feed numbers were 98%of a year ago.
Trade was looking for 99. So weare feeding the least amount of
cattle in over seventy years.And I know we're feeding them to
higher weights, but that stilldoesn't make up for the lower
number of cattle overall thatwe're feeding. So feed demand is
(03:26):
weighing on the corn market aswell. The yield is weighing on
corn market as well.
We could see that carryoutincrease. Maybe it's
1,700,000,000 basically todayfor this coming year's crop
projected carryout. That couldbe 1.9, maybe even two point
zero. Hopefully we can keep itbelow 2,000,000,000.
Psychologically that is a bignumber if they, it would
(03:51):
increase the carryout to over2,000,000,000 bushels at this
point.
But right now, though there'srain in the forecast for us,
even this afternoon, there'sbeen rain coming across the
Midwest as we speak. So it'sjust hard to get the market
excited when it's raining asmuch as it's been raining and
the crop ratings are as good asthey are.
Todd Gleason (04:09):
Is there a different or similar story to
tell for soybean?
Greg Johnson (04:13):
Well, it's different in the fact that, we
don't know what the yield isgonna be on soybeans. We feel
relatively confident on the cornbecause we're past pollination
in most areas, and it appearsthat other than a couple of
varieties that maybe got plantedat just the wrong time that, you
know, the tassel wrap affected alittle bit of that. I think
that's a relatively small amountfrom what I hear. So not enough
(04:36):
to impact the overall size ofthe crop by very much. So the
corn is probably out there.
The beans, the jury's still outon that. We will need rain in
August. If we get two to threeto four inches of rain in
August, I would anticipate apretty good bean crop as well,
but we don't know that yet. Butthe flip side is we do have some
(04:58):
halfway decent export demand forcorn, some very strong exports
for corn. We do not have that onsoybeans.
That, you know, we really needto get China to buy some US
soybeans. They bought a lot ofbeans from South America, have
not bought Bushel one yet fromThe United States. And the
recent news out of Washington isthat the trade talks between US
(05:22):
and China have been pushed backor extended, I guess is the
correct word, extended foranother ninety days. So if they
take the full ninety days, thatgets you into October and bean
harvest will have alreadystarted and we don't have enough
room to store both the entirecorn crop and the entire bean
crop. We really need to seesoybeans move in the fall.
(05:43):
So hopefully we can get somekind of a trade agreement worked
out prior to harvest.
Todd Gleason (05:47):
How much of an issue is that for an elevator
like yours? I assume you have tostart to plan for it.
Greg Johnson (05:54):
Exactly. Yeah. And basis levels were extremely weak
the last time that, that thetrade war happened between The
US and China, back in 2018, andbasis levels probably weakened
as much as $0.04 0 to $0.50 fromnormal type basis levels in the
fall. Now, I'm not predictingthat that's going to happen to
that extent again, but certainlythe path of least resistance is
(06:16):
a weaker basis, not a strongerbasis, especially if we can't
move those soybeans in the fall.So, talking to farmers, we're
talking about playing defenseand maybe getting basis locked
in, just to prevent, you know,from having to take an extremely
weak basis, on October 15 whenthe soybeans coming across the
scale.
Todd Gleason (06:35):
Yeah. So you you believe you'll have storage
space because you'll put thecorn outside, I assume.
Greg Johnson (06:41):
Oh, exactly. We can always put corn on the
ground, but, you know, the oldrule of thumb is when you start
seeing corn piles on the ground,expect basis to get weaker
because it costs money to put itout and to pick it back up, and
you're taking the risk of thatcorn possibly going out of
condition. So all that costsmoney, and so, that tends to
lead to base wider basis levels,not stronger.
Todd Gleason (07:01):
Does demand in The United States remain strong for
corn relatively speaking? I knowyou talked about, feed demand
may be slipping. Ethanol lookslike it should be running along
nicely.
Greg Johnson (07:14):
Yeah. Ethanol's steady. You know, it's it's
mandated. We have to use somuch, ethanol in every gallon of
gasoline. I don't think thedrivable miles are increasing
very much.
And with a few more electricvehicles all the time, you know,
gasoline demand is steady atbest, and so ethanol demand is
steady at best. So ethanoldemand looks good. You know,
(07:37):
that's not changing. Exportslook good, but the biggest
component of of, corn demand isfeed demand. And we really need
to see you know, hogs and andchickens are okay, but we really
need to see cattle, numbersstart to pick back up, and
that's not gonna happenovernight.
That's more like a one to twoyear process, unfortunately.
Todd Gleason (07:56):
Hey. Thank you much. I appreciate it. We'll
talk with you again nextWednesday.
Greg Johnson (07:59):
Alright. Thanks, Todd.
Todd Gleason (08:01):
That's Greg Johnson. He is with TGM. That's
totalgrainmarketing.com. You The2018 Farm Bill provided a legal
pathway for the production ofhemp in The United States.
Researchers here on theUniversity of Illinois campus
have been working to improve thecrop and develop production
(08:24):
techniques.
This summer they held a hempresearch open house. David
Lakeman from the IllinoisDepartment of Agriculture kicked
off the event. I talked with himabout how the state took
interest in hemp.
David Lakeman (08:37):
Illinois has is almost perfectly designed, for
hemp production. One of thethings I mentioned is that, in
the course of the second worldwar, right as The United States
entered the war, many of theareas that grew hemp for
industrial purposes fell underenemy control. So The
Philippines and Ukraine are twoof the greatest areas for hemp
production, at least they wereat the time. And, you know,
(08:59):
virtually overnight in latenineteen forty one, both of
those places were unavailable.So United States Department of
Agriculture launched a programcalled Hemp for Victory, which
encouraged US farmers to growhemp and step into that void.
And and Illinois farmers steppedup in between, you know, 1942
and 1945 for almost 20,000 acresof hemp, which supported the war
effort. It it can be done here.
Greg Johnson (09:20):
Hemp for victory.
Todd Gleason (09:24):
Those are the closing credits from a 1942 film
by USDA titled Hemp for Victorythat spurred production of hemp
across the state of Illinois andthe Midwest, it is something
David Leichman, who is thecannabis and hemp division
manager at the IllinoisDepartment of Agriculture, hopes
can be recreated.
David Lakeman (09:45):
And I want to see, you know, one more area for
our farmers who are struggling,are dealing with multiple
challenges to have this thiscrop that can is so versatile.
It can grow on looser, rocky,more acidic soil that other, you
know, cash crops cannot. It'sit's it is great absorbing
things from the soil. So if youknow, before marijuana was made
(10:05):
illegal in the thirties, farmerswould line their fields with
hemp because it would absorbheavy metals, lead, mercury,
arsenic, pesticides, it wouldabsorb those out of the fields
so that you could grow yourcorn. Right?
There's a million different usesfor it. And I want to make sure
that Illinois not only has athriving industry but it
continues to be a leader, inindustrial hemp production.
Todd Gleason (10:22):
Of course the United States government during
World War two was spurringproduction of hemp for its
fiber. What industrial uses doyou believe it will have in
today's world?
David Lakeman (10:34):
Again, it's virtually limitless. So to to
answer your question, yes,during the war, again, rope was
one of the chief uses for it. Anactual battleship, so an Iowa
clash battleship would use about30,000 feet of hemp rope. And
then, of course, less for acruiser or destroyer, but, you
know, something similar. We alsoused it for the production of
uniforms, especially for exportsto Soviet Union, which had used
(10:56):
a lot of hemp grown in what isnow Ukraine to make their
uniforms.
Now given the state of science,there's so much more it can be
used for. So you can makehempcrete, which is versatile.
It is light. It is fireretardant. It is extremely
useful.
You can turn it into plastics. Ihave in my office at the
Department of Agriculture, a setof plastic silverware that is
(11:16):
made from hemp material. You canmake oils out of it. You can use
it for cloth, for paper. There'sa really great used bookstore
downtown Springfield, and theyhave, you know, called the
Prairie Archives.
They have, you know, all thesenewspapers that go back, to
before Illinois was a state. Andit's interesting. You go through
those looks, can those papers,you can find when Illinois when
(11:37):
they moved from making hemppaper for those newspapers to
wood pulp paper. Cause the hemppaper is still clear as the day
it was printed. It doesn't needall the protection that the wood
pulp paper does.
It maintains its its character.It stays stable. So I mean, if
if you could do that and startreplacing, you know, lumber
production with with hemp paper,it's both more sustainable and
has the benefit of stickingaround longer. It's more stable
(11:59):
as a product. So again, there'svirtually limitless
applications.
And I think that's part of what,you know, that's part of why
what the U of I is doing is soimportant. It's why, you know,
this program is so importantbecause we're just we're just
now learning what all we can dowith this plan, and I and I
wanna continue to support thoseefforts.
Todd Gleason (12:13):
Why are you here to participate in a University
of Illinois field day? Whatpurpose does it serve?
David Lakeman (12:20):
You know, I think every one of the state
universities now has a hempprogram. They're incredible
resources. They're pushing thescience forward in a way, you
know, that many other states arenot doing. You know, there's a
long history, not just here atat U of I, but also at the
agriculture school in Carbondalewith with hemp and cannabis
research. I mean, they have avery long history.
So making sure that we'reutilizing these incredible
resources that Illinois has tobring to bear on it, they're
(12:43):
here, we're here. And that'spart of why, you know, the
department wanted to be at thisevent is to show showcase our
support and raise awareness ofwhat these programs are doing.
Todd Gleason (12:51):
That's David Lachman from the Illinois
Department of Agriculture. Heserves as the cannabis and hemp
division manager there. Heattended the hemp research open
house held on the University ofIllinois campus in July. Let's
(13:19):
take a look at the globalgrowing regions. Drew Lerner is
here now.
He's with World WeatherIncorporated in Kansas City.
Hello, Drew. Thanks for beingwith us again. I like to talk
about the cold weather, butlet's start with just weather in
general and what you're watchingas we wrap up the month of July
(13:39):
and turn the calendar to August.What things are of interest here
in The United States for you?
Drew Lerner (13:45):
Yeah. In The US, probably the key is whether or
not we will shift gears out ofthis wet bias in August. You
know, is pretty much satisfiedwith the corn production issue
with a few issues of course, butI think everyone's on the same
page with the idea that the rainhas been sufficient enough that
(14:06):
whatever yield we're going toget is going to end up being
locked in here. But we do seethe potential that we could be
drier in August. You know, thissummer really has been kind of a
almost normal ish summer.
We've definitely been wetterbiased in quite a few areas
recently, but the EasternMidwest has been a little bit
drier biased. And when you stepback and look at the upper wind
(14:29):
pattern, there hasn't been anyreal serious blocking patterns.
So it's been kind of a typicalsummertime weather or not that
we know what typical is anymore.But I think that there's
potential that we may see anAugust that turns a little bit
drier with time. And it couldturn a lot more drier depending
(14:50):
on what happens in the tropics.
And that's something that wewant to watch pretty closely as
we get out into the August. Ithink the Atlantic will fire up
and we'll see a lot of weathersystems lined up poised towards
moving in our direction. And asa result of that, if that
(15:10):
actually verifies, we could endup allowing for more rigidness a
little farther to the east,giving us a little bit more
dryness and a little less rainin the month of August. So parts
of the Midwest could dry down alittle bit more, you know, a
normal August, if we get normalrain, we usually see some net
drying. It's usually too warm inAugust to really be able to
(15:32):
counter evaporation.
So I think no matter how youslice it, we're gonna be a
little bit drier at the Augustthan we are now. And if the
tropics fire up as they shouldfor the August, I think there's
a pretty good chance we may havea few greater pockets of dryness
around. Absolutely not will wehave widespread droughty
(15:53):
weather. We will get back intosome thunderstorm activity. I
just don't think it's gonna bequite as juicy out there as it
is now.
Todd Gleason (16:00):
Why at the August will we be cool?
Drew Lerner (16:03):
You know, we've been watching this forty five
day cool cycle since lastOctober. And this is one of
those intra growing seasonpatterns that only lasts for a
year and it is still cycling.And because of that, we're a
little bit concerned aboutSeptember, but this pattern has
(16:25):
come and gone. If you thinkback, we've had some shots of
cool weather periodically sincethe middle of winter, in the
spring, this was something thathappened a little bit more often
than what we kind of thought.And so for that reason, we've
had, you know, really good cropconditions, but there's been
times in the Northern Plainshave seen only 60 degree
(16:47):
temperatures in the last thirtydays.
And now we're going to see someseventies up that way, in parts
of the Midwest. So a veryimpressive cool air mass. It
should abate as we go intoAugust and it will return, I
think sometime in September. Andfor that reason, I think there
is at least a little bit ofinterest that we could see some
(17:10):
early frost and freezes in someareas, especially Eastern Canada
and Eastern Canada Prairies thatis, and some locations across
parts of the Uppermost Midwest.But that is speculation for now,
but I do think this pattern willrepeat again.
Todd Gleason (17:27):
You just sent a shutter through those producers
in the Dakotas and Minnesota andmaybe put a smile on the face of
producers in Iowa and Indiana.We'll have to wait and see what
that looks like in midSeptember. Turn your attention
though now to some other places.I haven't checked in with you
for a couple of weeks. We havebeen watching France and then
(17:51):
parts of the Southwestern areasor Southeastern areas of Europe,
which had suffered through somedryness and droughty hot
conditions.
Have things changed in the lastcouple of weeks?
Drew Lerner (18:04):
Actually there hasn't been a tremendous amount
of change. We did get some rainto occur very briefly in France
and The UK and that helpedthings out just a little bit.
But we're back into the holeagain, and we don't expect rain
of significance in France orparts of The UK for at least the
(18:25):
next ten days. And we can saythat the same for parts of the
Lower Danube River Basin,
David Lakeman (18:31):
which is
Drew Lerner (18:32):
Southeastern Europe. Now that area there did
just get some rain over the pastcouple of days. So there has
been some relief in that area,but we are going to see that
come to an end and go back intothe same pattern that's been
dominating the growing season inEurope. So we are going to
continue that. Now it hasn'tbeen real hot in parts of France
(18:54):
in the last two or three weeks.
So they haven't suffered quiteas much as they had before, but
there's still not much moisturein the ground. So the crop is
still struggling in unirrigatedareas. And we do expect the
warmth to start coming back inagain next week, probably in the
second half of the week. Nothingextreme, but just enough to keep
the edge of, stress on thesecrops for a while longer.
Todd Gleason (19:17):
Anything else that we should be watching in that
part of the world?
Drew Lerner (19:20):
For Europe, probably not. In the western
portions of the former SovietUnion, we also have some dryness
in the Black Sea region down inSouthern Ukraine and from there
eastward into parts of WesternKazakhstan, including Russia's
Southern region, at least theSouthern parts of the Southern
(19:41):
region. And that area is fairlyimportant for summer crops.
There's a lot of course grainand oil seeds produced in that
region. The dryness has beenreally good for the harvest of
winter crops.
And so that moved along justfine, but there are some of
those dry land summer crops thatare pretty stressed at the
moment. The top and subsoilmoisture is pretty short and
(20:03):
there's a lot of stress going onand to make matters all the
worse between that and theongoing war, South Eastern
Ukraine is being plagued bylocust infestation right now.
And there's a video out there onthe internet showing the
population of these locust isjust phenomenal, and so that's
(20:24):
another problem that is facingsome of the Ukrainian
production.
Todd Gleason (20:28):
Oh my, that would be just awful to have that many
insects swarming at one time,especially if it's coming on top
of dry, and droughty conditions.I can't imagine anything worse
as they finish off a crop that'salready in poor conditions.
Other places. We have notchecked in on Australia for a
(20:50):
month or two I think.
Drew Lerner (20:52):
Yeah, you know Australia's actually doing a lot
better. They had a pretty decentrain distribution over the last
week. It started about a weekago from today and went through
this past weekend and it's nowwound down, but there was good
widespread rain. Now, if yourecall the first several weeks
(21:14):
of the autumn planting seasonfor wheat, barley and canola
were marked by unusually drierbiased weather. And they were
planting with the anticipationthat it would rain eventually.
And it did rain eventually, butit was a few weeks late and the
crop has been subjected to somecooler weather. So we're not as
well established as we ought tobe for those three crops. And
(21:37):
this rain that came up willactually turn out to be a great
benefit when we do start to warmup a little bit more as we get
into late August and September.And we believe that there is
enough moisture out there nowand maybe they'll get a little
bit more to stimulate some newroot and tiller development in
(21:58):
the wheat and barley crop and tojust help the canola crop get a
little better established beforeaggressive Springs growth starts
to occur. So I think Australiais definitely not the crop that
it ought to be for this time ofthe year, but they do have
potential for further recoverybecause of the rains that have
(22:18):
occurred recently.
But one last comment, we westill need more moisture.
There's still a lot of thecountry that is low on on soil
moisture.
Todd Gleason (22:27):
And thanks much. We'll check-in with you again
next week.
Drew Lerner (22:30):
You bet. Have a good day.
Todd Gleason (22:31):
You too. Drew Lerner is with World Weather
Incorporated in Kansas City.Joined us on this Wednesday
edition of the closing marketreport that came to you from
Illinois Public Media. It'spublic radio for the farming
world. Don't forget to registerfor tomorrow's tax event for
farmers related to the one bigbeautiful bill act.
Bob Ray will bring you up tospeed on all the changes. You'll
(22:54):
want to get yourself registered.You can do that right now on our
website. Look for the One BigBeautiful Bill Act tax webinar
from the FarmDoc team in thecalendar of events. You'll find
it in red.
I'm Illinois Extension's ToddGleeson. Doctor. JACKSON:
From the Land Grant University at Urbana
Champaign, Illinois. This is theclosing market report. It is the
July 2025. I'm extension's ToddGleason. Coming up, we'll talk
about the commodity markets withGreg Johnson.
He's a TGM. That's total grainmarketing here in Champaign
County. We'll turn our attentionin the middle of the show to the
(00:20):
Hemp Research Open House heldlast week right here on this
campus and talk about theindustrial uses for hemp. And
then as we close out our time,we'll discuss the weather
forecast too, not only here, butacross the planet with Drew
Lerner at World WeatherIncorporated on this Wednesday
edition of the closing marketreport from Illinois Public
Media. It is public radio forthe farming world online on
(00:44):
demand at willag.0rg.
Todd Gleason services are madeavailable to w I l l by
University of IllinoisExtension. September corn for
the day at $3.91 and 3 quarters.A settlement price up 2 and a
half cents. December at $4.12and a quarter, a penny a quarter
higher, and the March at $4.29and a half, 3 quarters of a cent
(01:07):
higher. Soybeans in the August,14 lower at $9.67 and 3
quarters.
September, nine 75 and threequarters down thirteen and three
quarters. And November beans at$9.95 and 3 quarters, 13 and 3
quarters of a lower. Bean mealfutures down a buck for the day.
The bean oil, a dollar and 4¢lower, and the wheat futures
(01:27):
soft red in the December at$5.44 to quarter, 5 and 3
quarters of a cent lower. Thehard red December at $5.42 and a
quarter.
It finished two and threequarters of a cent lower on this
Wednesday afternoon. GregJohnson from TGM Total Grain
Marketing, the elevator righthere in Champaign County that
(01:47):
belongs to FS Gro. Mark nowjoins us to discuss the
marketplace. Hi, Greg. Thanksfor being with us on another
Wednesday.
Tell me about the market as yousee it today.
Greg Johnson (01:58):
The market is, responding to the weather. We
continue to get rains. There wassome high wind damage up in
parts of the Dakotas and Iowa,but the market seems to think
that that was a relativelynarrow band where those high
winds went through. And so Ithink the feeling that the
(02:19):
market is, is that the rainbenefited more than what the
winds hurt the crop. So based oncrop ratings, we're looking at
some of the highest ratingswe've ever seen and some of the
private analysts that use thosegood to excellent ratings, are
coming up with anywhere betweenone hundred and eighty three and
one hundred and eighty sixbushels to the acre.
(02:41):
We are nine trading days awayfrom the next USDA report when
they will probably change theyield or could change the yield,
and we'll see how much theyincrease it from 181, see if
they go to 183 or if they goeven higher than that. But we're
nine days away from that.Another negative, you know, the
government lowered feed demandin the July report by 75,000,000
(03:05):
bushels. They'll probably needto lower the feed demand again.
Cattle on feed numbers were 98%of a year ago.
Trade was looking for 99. So weare feeding the least amount of
cattle in over seventy years.And I know we're feeding them to
higher weights, but that stilldoesn't make up for the lower
number of cattle overall thatwe're feeding. So feed demand is
(03:26):
weighing on the corn market aswell. The yield is weighing on
corn market as well.
We could see that carryoutincrease. Maybe it's
1,700,000,000 basically todayfor this coming year's crop
projected carryout. That couldbe 1.9, maybe even two point
zero. Hopefully we can keep itbelow 2,000,000,000.
Psychologically that is a bignumber if they, it would
(03:51):
increase the carryout to over2,000,000,000 bushels at this
point.
But right now, though there'srain in the forecast for us,
even this afternoon, there'sbeen rain coming across the
Midwest as we speak. So it'sjust hard to get the market
excited when it's raining asmuch as it's been raining and
the crop ratings are as good asthey are.
Todd Gleason (04:09):
Is there a different or similar story to
tell for soybean?
Greg Johnson (04:13):
Well, it's different in the fact that, we
don't know what the yield isgonna be on soybeans. We feel
relatively confident on the cornbecause we're past pollination
in most areas, and it appearsthat other than a couple of
varieties that maybe got plantedat just the wrong time that, you
know, the tassel wrap affected alittle bit of that. I think
that's a relatively small amountfrom what I hear. So not enough
(04:36):
to impact the overall size ofthe crop by very much. So the
corn is probably out there.
The beans, the jury's still outon that. We will need rain in
August. If we get two to threeto four inches of rain in
August, I would anticipate apretty good bean crop as well,
but we don't know that yet. Butthe flip side is we do have some
(04:58):
halfway decent export demand forcorn, some very strong exports
for corn. We do not have that onsoybeans.
That, you know, we really needto get China to buy some US
soybeans. They bought a lot ofbeans from South America, have
not bought Bushel one yet fromThe United States. And the
recent news out of Washington isthat the trade talks between US
(05:22):
and China have been pushed backor extended, I guess is the
correct word, extended foranother ninety days. So if they
take the full ninety days, thatgets you into October and bean
harvest will have alreadystarted and we don't have enough
room to store both the entirecorn crop and the entire bean
crop. We really need to seesoybeans move in the fall.
(05:43):
So hopefully we can get somekind of a trade agreement worked
out prior to harvest.
Todd Gleason (05:47):
How much of an issue is that for an elevator
like yours? I assume you have tostart to plan for it.
Greg Johnson (05:54):
Exactly. Yeah. And basis levels were extremely weak
the last time that, that thetrade war happened between The
US and China, back in 2018, andbasis levels probably weakened
as much as $0.04 0 to $0.50 fromnormal type basis levels in the
fall. Now, I'm not predictingthat that's going to happen to
that extent again, but certainlythe path of least resistance is
(06:16):
a weaker basis, not a strongerbasis, especially if we can't
move those soybeans in the fall.So, talking to farmers, we're
talking about playing defenseand maybe getting basis locked
in, just to prevent, you know,from having to take an extremely
weak basis, on October 15 whenthe soybeans coming across the
scale.
Todd Gleason (06:35):
Yeah. So you you believe you'll have storage
space because you'll put thecorn outside, I assume.
Greg Johnson (06:41):
Oh, exactly. We can always put corn on the
ground, but, you know, the oldrule of thumb is when you start
seeing corn piles on the ground,expect basis to get weaker
because it costs money to put itout and to pick it back up, and
you're taking the risk of thatcorn possibly going out of
condition. So all that costsmoney, and so, that tends to
lead to base wider basis levels,not stronger.
Todd Gleason (07:01):
Does demand in The United States remain strong for
corn relatively speaking? I knowyou talked about, feed demand
may be slipping. Ethanol lookslike it should be running along
nicely.
Greg Johnson (07:14):
Yeah. Ethanol's steady. You know, it's it's
mandated. We have to use somuch, ethanol in every gallon of
gasoline. I don't think thedrivable miles are increasing
very much.
And with a few more electricvehicles all the time, you know,
gasoline demand is steady atbest, and so ethanol demand is
steady at best. So ethanoldemand looks good. You know,
(07:37):
that's not changing. Exportslook good, but the biggest
component of of, corn demand isfeed demand. And we really need
to see you know, hogs and andchickens are okay, but we really
need to see cattle, numbersstart to pick back up, and
that's not gonna happenovernight.
That's more like a one to twoyear process, unfortunately.
Todd Gleason (07:56):
Hey. Thank you much. I appreciate it. We'll
talk with you again nextWednesday.
Greg Johnson (07:59):
Alright. Thanks, Todd.
Todd Gleason (08:01):
That's Greg Johnson. He is with TGM. That's
totalgrainmarketing.com. You The2018 Farm Bill provided a legal
pathway for the production ofhemp in The United States.
Researchers here on theUniversity of Illinois campus
have been working to improve thecrop and develop production
(08:24):
techniques.
This summer they held a hempresearch open house. David
Lakeman from the IllinoisDepartment of Agriculture kicked
off the event. I talked with himabout how the state took
interest in hemp.
David Lakeman (08:37):
Illinois has is almost perfectly designed, for
hemp production. One of thethings I mentioned is that, in
the course of the second worldwar, right as The United States
entered the war, many of theareas that grew hemp for
industrial purposes fell underenemy control. So The
Philippines and Ukraine are twoof the greatest areas for hemp
production, at least they wereat the time. And, you know,
(08:59):
virtually overnight in latenineteen forty one, both of
those places were unavailable.So United States Department of
Agriculture launched a programcalled Hemp for Victory, which
encouraged US farmers to growhemp and step into that void.
And and Illinois farmers steppedup in between, you know, 1942
and 1945 for almost 20,000 acresof hemp, which supported the war
effort. It it can be done here.
Greg Johnson (09:20):
Hemp for victory.
Todd Gleason (09:24):
Those are the closing credits from a 1942 film
by USDA titled Hemp for Victorythat spurred production of hemp
across the state of Illinois andthe Midwest, it is something
David Leichman, who is thecannabis and hemp division
manager at the IllinoisDepartment of Agriculture, hopes
can be recreated.
David Lakeman (09:45):
And I want to see, you know, one more area for
our farmers who are struggling,are dealing with multiple
challenges to have this thiscrop that can is so versatile.
It can grow on looser, rocky,more acidic soil that other, you
know, cash crops cannot. It'sit's it is great absorbing
things from the soil. So if youknow, before marijuana was made
(10:05):
illegal in the thirties, farmerswould line their fields with
hemp because it would absorbheavy metals, lead, mercury,
arsenic, pesticides, it wouldabsorb those out of the fields
so that you could grow yourcorn. Right?
There's a million different usesfor it. And I want to make sure
that Illinois not only has athriving industry but it
continues to be a leader, inindustrial hemp production.
Todd Gleason (10:22):
Of course the United States government during
World War two was spurringproduction of hemp for its
fiber. What industrial uses doyou believe it will have in
today's world?
David Lakeman (10:34):
Again, it's virtually limitless. So to to
answer your question, yes,during the war, again, rope was
one of the chief uses for it. Anactual battleship, so an Iowa
clash battleship would use about30,000 feet of hemp rope. And
then, of course, less for acruiser or destroyer, but, you
know, something similar. We alsoused it for the production of
uniforms, especially for exportsto Soviet Union, which had used
(10:56):
a lot of hemp grown in what isnow Ukraine to make their
uniforms.
Now given the state of science,there's so much more it can be
used for. So you can makehempcrete, which is versatile.
It is light. It is fireretardant. It is extremely
useful.
You can turn it into plastics. Ihave in my office at the
Department of Agriculture, a setof plastic silverware that is
(11:16):
made from hemp material. You canmake oils out of it. You can use
it for cloth, for paper. There'sa really great used bookstore
downtown Springfield, and theyhave, you know, called the
Prairie Archives.
They have, you know, all thesenewspapers that go back, to
before Illinois was a state. Andit's interesting. You go through
those looks, can those papers,you can find when Illinois when
(11:37):
they moved from making hemppaper for those newspapers to
wood pulp paper. Cause the hemppaper is still clear as the day
it was printed. It doesn't needall the protection that the wood
pulp paper does.
It maintains its its character.It stays stable. So I mean, if
if you could do that and startreplacing, you know, lumber
production with with hemp paper,it's both more sustainable and
has the benefit of stickingaround longer. It's more stable
(11:59):
as a product. So again, there'svirtually limitless
applications.
And I think that's part of what,you know, that's part of why
what the U of I is doing is soimportant. It's why, you know,
this program is so importantbecause we're just we're just
now learning what all we can dowith this plan, and I and I
wanna continue to support thoseefforts.
Todd Gleason (12:13):
Why are you here to participate in a University
of Illinois field day? Whatpurpose does it serve?
David Lakeman (12:20):
You know, I think every one of the state
universities now has a hempprogram. They're incredible
resources. They're pushing thescience forward in a way, you
know, that many other states arenot doing. You know, there's a
long history, not just here atat U of I, but also at the
agriculture school in Carbondalewith with hemp and cannabis
research. I mean, they have avery long history.
So making sure that we'reutilizing these incredible
resources that Illinois has tobring to bear on it, they're
(12:43):
here, we're here. And that'spart of why, you know, the
department wanted to be at thisevent is to show showcase our
support and raise awareness ofwhat these programs are doing.
Todd Gleason (12:51):
That's David Lachman from the Illinois
Department of Agriculture. Heserves as the cannabis and hemp
division manager there. Heattended the hemp research open
house held on the University ofIllinois campus in July. Let's
(13:19):
take a look at the globalgrowing regions. Drew Lerner is
here now.
He's with World WeatherIncorporated in Kansas City.
Hello, Drew. Thanks for beingwith us again. I like to talk
about the cold weather, butlet's start with just weather in
general and what you're watchingas we wrap up the month of July
(13:39):
and turn the calendar to August.What things are of interest here
in The United States for you?
Drew Lerner (13:45):
Yeah. In The US, probably the key is whether or
not we will shift gears out ofthis wet bias in August. You
know, is pretty much satisfiedwith the corn production issue
with a few issues of course, butI think everyone's on the same
page with the idea that the rainhas been sufficient enough that
(14:06):
whatever yield we're going toget is going to end up being
locked in here. But we do seethe potential that we could be
drier in August. You know, thissummer really has been kind of a
almost normal ish summer.
We've definitely been wetterbiased in quite a few areas
recently, but the EasternMidwest has been a little bit
drier biased. And when you stepback and look at the upper wind
(14:29):
pattern, there hasn't been anyreal serious blocking patterns.
So it's been kind of a typicalsummertime weather or not that
we know what typical is anymore.But I think that there's
potential that we may see anAugust that turns a little bit
drier with time. And it couldturn a lot more drier depending
(14:50):
on what happens in the tropics.
And that's something that wewant to watch pretty closely as
we get out into the August. Ithink the Atlantic will fire up
and we'll see a lot of weathersystems lined up poised towards
moving in our direction. And asa result of that, if that
(15:10):
actually verifies, we could endup allowing for more rigidness a
little farther to the east,giving us a little bit more
dryness and a little less rainin the month of August. So parts
of the Midwest could dry down alittle bit more, you know, a
normal August, if we get normalrain, we usually see some net
drying. It's usually too warm inAugust to really be able to
(15:32):
counter evaporation.
So I think no matter how youslice it, we're gonna be a
little bit drier at the Augustthan we are now. And if the
tropics fire up as they shouldfor the August, I think there's
a pretty good chance we may havea few greater pockets of dryness
around. Absolutely not will wehave widespread droughty
(15:53):
weather. We will get back intosome thunderstorm activity. I
just don't think it's gonna bequite as juicy out there as it
is now.
Todd Gleason (16:00):
Why at the August will we be cool?
Drew Lerner (16:03):
You know, we've been watching this forty five
day cool cycle since lastOctober. And this is one of
those intra growing seasonpatterns that only lasts for a
year and it is still cycling.And because of that, we're a
little bit concerned aboutSeptember, but this pattern has
(16:25):
come and gone. If you thinkback, we've had some shots of
cool weather periodically sincethe middle of winter, in the
spring, this was something thathappened a little bit more often
than what we kind of thought.And so for that reason, we've
had, you know, really good cropconditions, but there's been
times in the Northern Plainshave seen only 60 degree
(16:47):
temperatures in the last thirtydays.
And now we're going to see someseventies up that way, in parts
of the Midwest. So a veryimpressive cool air mass. It
should abate as we go intoAugust and it will return, I
think sometime in September. Andfor that reason, I think there
is at least a little bit ofinterest that we could see some
(17:10):
early frost and freezes in someareas, especially Eastern Canada
and Eastern Canada Prairies thatis, and some locations across
parts of the Uppermost Midwest.But that is speculation for now,
but I do think this pattern willrepeat again.
Todd Gleason (17:27):
You just sent a shutter through those producers
in the Dakotas and Minnesota andmaybe put a smile on the face of
producers in Iowa and Indiana.We'll have to wait and see what
that looks like in midSeptember. Turn your attention
though now to some other places.I haven't checked in with you
for a couple of weeks. We havebeen watching France and then
(17:51):
parts of the Southwestern areasor Southeastern areas of Europe,
which had suffered through somedryness and droughty hot
conditions.
Have things changed in the lastcouple of weeks?
Drew Lerner (18:04):
Actually there hasn't been a tremendous amount
of change. We did get some rainto occur very briefly in France
and The UK and that helpedthings out just a little bit.
But we're back into the holeagain, and we don't expect rain
of significance in France orparts of The UK for at least the
(18:25):
next ten days. And we can saythat the same for parts of the
Lower Danube River Basin,
David Lakeman (18:31):
which is
Drew Lerner (18:32):
Southeastern Europe. Now that area there did
just get some rain over the pastcouple of days. So there has
been some relief in that area,but we are going to see that
come to an end and go back intothe same pattern that's been
dominating the growing season inEurope. So we are going to
continue that. Now it hasn'tbeen real hot in parts of France
(18:54):
in the last two or three weeks.
So they haven't suffered quiteas much as they had before, but
there's still not much moisturein the ground. So the crop is
still struggling in unirrigatedareas. And we do expect the
warmth to start coming back inagain next week, probably in the
second half of the week. Nothingextreme, but just enough to keep
the edge of, stress on thesecrops for a while longer.
Todd Gleason (19:17):
Anything else that we should be watching in that
part of the world?
Drew Lerner (19:20):
For Europe, probably not. In the western
portions of the former SovietUnion, we also have some dryness
in the Black Sea region down inSouthern Ukraine and from there
eastward into parts of WesternKazakhstan, including Russia's
Southern region, at least theSouthern parts of the Southern
(19:41):
region. And that area is fairlyimportant for summer crops.
There's a lot of course grainand oil seeds produced in that
region. The dryness has beenreally good for the harvest of
winter crops.
And so that moved along justfine, but there are some of
those dry land summer crops thatare pretty stressed at the
moment. The top and subsoilmoisture is pretty short and
(20:03):
there's a lot of stress going onand to make matters all the
worse between that and theongoing war, South Eastern
Ukraine is being plagued bylocust infestation right now.
And there's a video out there onthe internet showing the
population of these locust isjust phenomenal, and so that's
(20:24):
another problem that is facingsome of the Ukrainian
production.
Todd Gleason (20:28):
Oh my, that would be just awful to have that many
insects swarming at one time,especially if it's coming on top
of dry, and droughty conditions.I can't imagine anything worse
as they finish off a crop that'salready in poor conditions.
Other places. We have notchecked in on Australia for a
(20:50):
month or two I think.
Drew Lerner (20:52):
Yeah, you know Australia's actually doing a lot
better. They had a pretty decentrain distribution over the last
week. It started about a weekago from today and went through
this past weekend and it's nowwound down, but there was good
widespread rain. Now, if yourecall the first several weeks
(21:14):
of the autumn planting seasonfor wheat, barley and canola
were marked by unusually drierbiased weather. And they were
planting with the anticipationthat it would rain eventually.
And it did rain eventually, butit was a few weeks late and the
crop has been subjected to somecooler weather. So we're not as
well established as we ought tobe for those three crops. And
(21:37):
this rain that came up willactually turn out to be a great
benefit when we do start to warmup a little bit more as we get
into late August and September.And we believe that there is
enough moisture out there nowand maybe they'll get a little
bit more to stimulate some newroot and tiller development in
(21:58):
the wheat and barley crop and tojust help the canola crop get a
little better established beforeaggressive Springs growth starts
to occur. So I think Australiais definitely not the crop that
it ought to be for this time ofthe year, but they do have
potential for further recoverybecause of the rains that have
(22:18):
occurred recently.
But one last comment, we westill need more moisture.
There's still a lot of thecountry that is low on on soil
moisture.
Todd Gleason (22:27):
And thanks much. We'll check-in with you again
next week.
Drew Lerner (22:30):
You bet. Have a good day.
Todd Gleason (22:31):
You too. Drew Lerner is with World Weather
Incorporated in Kansas City.Joined us on this Wednesday
edition of the closing marketreport that came to you from
Illinois Public Media. It'spublic radio for the farming
world. Don't forget to registerfor tomorrow's tax event for
farmers related to the one bigbeautiful bill act.
Bob Ray will bring you up tospeed on all the changes. You'll
(22:54):
want to get yourself registered.You can do that right now on our
website. Look for the One BigBeautiful Bill Act tax webinar
from the FarmDoc team in thecalendar of events. You'll find
it in red.
I'm Illinois Extension's ToddGleeson. Doctor. JACKSON:
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