July 31, 2025 • 23 mins
- Matt Bennett, AgMarket.net
- Andrew Larson, Illinois Soybean Association
- Boris Camiletti, Red Crown Rot in Soybean
- Mike Tannura, Tstorm.net
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Todd Gleason (00:00):
From the land to Grant University in Urbana
(00:02):
Champaign, Illinois. This is theclosing market reported as the
July 2025. I'm extension's ToddGleason. Coming up, we'll talk
about the commodity markets withMatt Bennett. He's agmarket.net
in Windsor, Illinois.
That's located in Shelby County.We'll stay in Shelby County and
discuss red crown rot, which hasappeared there in soybean
(00:24):
fields. We'll do that withIllinois Extension plant
pathologist Boris Camilletti.You won't want to miss that one.
And then we'll continue on withthe theme of soybeans and move
to the Soybean Associationheadquarters where this morning
in Bloomington, I spoke withAndrew Larson, their government
relations specialist, about theone big beautiful bill act.
(00:46):
And then as we close out ourtime together, we'll take a look
at the weather forecast and thewet July and what August might
bring. We'll do that with MikeTenora at t storm weather on
this Thursday edition of theclosing market report from
Illinois Public Media. It ispublic radio for the farming
world online on demand atwillag.0rg.
announce (01:12):
Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by
University of IllinoisExtension.
Todd Gleason (01:17):
At the CME Group today, September corn at $3.94,
2 and a quarter higher, Decemberat $4.13 and 3 quarters up a
penny and a half a bushel, andthe March at $4.30 and a half up
one cent for the corn. Augustsoybeans, $9.06 $1 for the old
crop down 6. November at $9.89and a quarter 6.5¢ lower. Bean
(01:39):
meal futures at 2.618 up 1.1.The bean oil at $55.58.92 lower
on the afternoon.
Wheat futures for the soft breadin the December contract at
$5.42 and a half opinion threequarters lower, and the hard red
December at $5.44 and 3 quartersup two and a half cents on the
(02:01):
day. Live cattle futures inChicago finished the nearby at
$2.23 15. That's down $6.57 anda half cents. Feeders $8.20
lower, and the lean hogs 37 anda half cents higher for the day.
They finished at $89 and 57 anda half cents on this Thursday
(02:21):
afternoon.
You're listening to the closingmarket report from Illinois
Public Media. Matt Bennett fromagmarket.net now joins us to
take a look at what's beenhappening in the marketplace.
Hi, Matt. Thank you for beingwith us. What have you been
watching closely today?
Matt Bennett (02:39):
Yeah. A couple three different things. I mean,
you know, you see the dollarcontinue to move a little bit
higher, and, clearly, that's aheadwind on commodities that
don't need an additionalheadwind. You look at the corn
market actually settled a littlebit higher, which is certainly
nice to see. But unfortunately,that's after we've really gotten
(03:00):
pummeled here over the lastcouple of weeks.
Just on the eighteenth, wetraded September corn up to
$4.11 And right now, settledtoday at $3.94. So a lot of
these cash bushels, I think,little bit of a, you know, give
up mode type situation, and alot of those bushels are are
kinda showing up. You know, someof your end users, there's been
(03:23):
a few pushes here and there. AndI and I believe some of the end
users were run a little bitthin, but a lot of the pushes
that we've heard about have havestarted to dry up. Bean market
off just a little.
I think the bean market's stillconcerned, you know, about are
we going to get a trade dealwith China or not? You know,
they've essentially bought nobeans off of us. So, you know,
(03:46):
the bean crop looks good. Maybenot as good as corn does
relatively speaking but goodenough. Certainly looking at the
demand situation and overallworld balance sheet.
Todd Gleason (03:56):
On the tariff side, the Trump administration
along with Mexico announcingtoday that they will extend
trade talks for another ninetydays. The market seemed to take
that in stride and really cornand most ag products are covered
by the USMCA anyway. However,does that give you pause as it's
(04:19):
related to China given that theTrump administration is already
talking about extensions for oneof our largest trade partners?
Matt Bennett (04:28):
Yeah. I mean, it's it's a little bit aggravating, I
think, for a lot of us in thetrade did not have the direction
that we'd like to have. Youknow, we hear about a lot of the
trade deals getting finalized orpushed through, but we haven't
really gotten a whole lot ofspecifics. If you look at the
pause that you just mentioned,you know, clearly Mexico's been
a massive buyer of corn thisyear. You certainly have to hope
(04:51):
that that would be an easy oneto come to grips with here
pretty quickly, and it needs to,quite frankly.
But at the same time, you know,there's no guarantees here.
Unfortunately, it's it's prettytough to put your finger on
anything right now and say, hey,this is a guarantee, you know,
with what we've been dealingwith. So there's a lot of
(05:11):
unknowns here, and it makes itreally tough on the producer
who, quite frankly, is very muchundersold on new crop, both corn
and beans. And if the vastmajority of growers would sell
today, they're most likely goingto be selling underwater unless
they're assuming a yield thatwe've been hearing whispers of.
Some guys think they could seeyou know, you know, well above
(05:34):
APH yields, you know, in a largeportion of the Corn Belt.
Those yields are certainlypossible, but still, I think
it's unfortunate in that therecould be a fair amount of people
that actually raise a recordcrop and lose money this year.
So, you know, I take no joy insaying that. It's just the fact
the reality looking at priceswhere they're at today.
Todd Gleason (05:54):
How do you discuss this with producers? Because if
they're looking at beingunderwater, is there much that
they can do to protectthemselves going forward to try
to find a way to get more out ofthe marketplace?
Matt Bennett (06:06):
Well, I think one of the biggest challenges we've
got, Todd, is probably basis.You know, you look at basis for
fall on corn, and, know, some ofthese guys have actually pushed
basis a little bit here latelybecause the grower hasn't sold a
lot of corn. Now they've relayedto me that they may push a
little bit for quantity, but,you know, they expect basis to
get super wide this fall. Andwhy wouldn't it? You know, if
(06:27):
you have multiple countiesthroughout the Corn Belt, you
know, posting well above recordyields, which is the assumption
you make with some of theseextremely large national yield
numbers out there, thenobviously, you're gonna have a
bit of a issue moving thiscorner around and finding a home
for all of it.
So there's no doubt basis couldget super wide. We've told guys,
(06:47):
if you need money in the fall,let's not make that decision
going across the scalenecessarily. Maybe try to shop
for some basis, get some of thatbooked. But then at the same
time, you know, turn around andmaybe buy yourself a make call
spread. I mean, we didn't tellthem guys a limited risk
position just in case this thinggets a post harvest bounce, just
in case we flip the narrative oncorn, which I think will happen
(07:08):
at some point.
The reason I think that is dueto the fact that we see corn
acres dipping precipitously nextyear for a variety of reasons.
Maybe the biggest one is thecorn to fertilizer ratio and in
tandem with the grower having aliquidity issue right now. So
you've got to think that thatwill flip at some point. That
keeps you in the game, gets yourhands on your money and maybe
(07:31):
pay some interest off. But weall know that most growers are
going to have some financialneeds for this fall.
And boy, I don't want to bemaking the decision on whether I
want a store or sell when I goacross a scale October 10,
because I'm afraid the basis inCentral Illinois could be 50
under.
Todd Gleason (07:46):
Looking into 2026, fertilizer costs appeared to
have jumped in mid summer. Isthat what you were hearing?
Matt Bennett (07:53):
Oh yeah. I mean, fertilizer costs were already
high, but then clearly, youknow, we've had issues,
especially with the phosphatemarket. You know, there's just
no relief there. Clearly, potashhas been cheap relative to
phosphate for quite some time. Imean, I'm talking pretty much
the last year.
Nitrogen costs also look quitehigh as well, though. And so
(08:15):
whenever you put that corn tofertilizer ratio and mix, I
mean, it's essentially thehighest we've ever seen other
than 2,008. And so after two,what looks like the third
straight year, according to aFarmDoc team of underwater type
margins, it makes it reallytough on a grower to step in and
spend that kind of money on dryfertilizer and push corn acres
(08:37):
for 26. So, you know, I thinkthat it's gonna have a pretty
big impact. The last thing I'llsay on acres is that, you know,
whenever you whenever you see abig acreage year that jumps up
like we did this year, almost4,000,000 acres, typically, the
next year, you lose a fairamount of acres.
So I don't even know if you getto 90.6 from last year. So I do
think better days are ahead atsome point, but it could get
(08:59):
pretty ugly between now and thenas well.
Todd Gleason (09:00):
Hey. Thanks much. We'll talk with you again next
week.
Matt Bennett (09:03):
Absolutely. Thanks.
Todd Gleason (09:04):
That's Matt Bennett. He is with
agmarket.net. I'm University ofIllinois Extension's Todd
Gleeson. We're now joined byAndrew Larson, government
relations at the IllinoisSoybean Association held a town
hall meeting at theirheadquarters in Bloomington
(09:27):
Normal today to talk about someof the things that have been
happening. I'd like to discussthe one big beautiful bill act
with you.
Three items of concern from theIllinois Soybean Association.
The first just simply has to dowith reconciliation act process
itself and how SNAP and farmpolicies went through it.
Andrew Larson (09:50):
Yeah. I I think our our observation is that we
wanna make sure that the farmbill, which has always been a
bipartisan and great coalitionbetween the hunger you know,
folks advocating for for hungryfolks around the country and
agriculture come together, andthat we also have the
opportunity to really discussthese farm bills and farm policy
in an open manner. We know thatthings happen quickly in the
(10:14):
reconciliation process, and wereally wanna make sure that we
return to regular order and passsome farm bills on the regular
order and schedule and make surethat we have that opportunity to
really dive into all of agpolicy comprehensively so that
we can achieve the best valuefor the entire country.
Todd Gleason (10:30):
The second issue relates to crop insurance SEO,
in particular, the Farm Doc teamand its one big beautiful bill
act review webinar suggestingthat this has been transitioned,
SEO that is, from a cropinsurance program, kind of the
no do no harm area, to a directpayment program, and that it's
(10:52):
also skewed to other parts ofthe country, particularly the
South.
Andrew Larson (10:57):
Yeah. I mean, that just goes back to our our
desire to have more openconversations about what's
happening in foreign policy. Youknow, I think that it we want
folks that were if they receivebenefits of these changes and
these programs, let's addresswhy they need those changes, and
let's look at that holisticallyand have the opportunity to
bring the voice and the concernof Midwestern Illinois farmers
into that conversation as wellin the same way. Because, you
(11:19):
know, folks may have differentneeds in parts of the country,
but let's make sure that we passsomething that makes sense. We
work on things in the futurethat continue to make sense for
everyone.
Todd Gleason (11:26):
And finally, something that has been
trumpeted by much of agriculturebut still is not clear exactly
how it moves through the systemis 45 z. This would involve
biofuels. The Illinois SoybeanAssociation would like to see a
transition period, if nothingelse, using the Blenders Tax
Credit or 40 a.
Andrew Larson (11:47):
Yeah. Absolutely. The 40 a credit's worked really
well for over twenty years inthis country as with
incentivizing the retail sale ofbiodiesel, particularly here in
Illinois, coupled with our statesales tax exemption. 45 z
changes how the business and taxrelationships happen, and
there's still a lot ofuncertainty. The rules aren't
written yet by the Trumpadministration.
Even if we see those rules herein the next few months, there's
(12:08):
still a lot of biodiesel plantsbeen hurting across the country,
and it's such a great demanddriver for soybeans and soybean
oil. We wanna continue to makesure we have that robust gallon
for over 300 mil robust marketfor over 300,000,000 gallons of
biodiesel here in Illinoisannually. It's a great Illinois
success story, something thathelps drive support basis and
support farmers across the statein Illinois. So we wanna
continue to make sure it'sthere. And without some of this
(12:29):
additional certainty throughforty a, we believe that
continues to put that in insomewhat of jeopardy.
Todd Gleason (12:34):
Andrew Larson is with the Illinois Soybean
Association and managesgovernment relations for them.
We talked to him at an IllinoisSoybean Association town hall
meeting in Bloomington Normalthis morning. You're listening
to the closing market reportcelebrating forty years on the
(12:57):
air. Some 10,000 episodes andmore than 30,000 interviews.
Thanks for taking your time withus this afternoon.
Our theme music, by the way, iswritten, performed, produced in
courtesy of Logan County,Illinois farmer Tim Gleason. Now
up next, symptoms of red crownrot are appearing in commercial
soybean fields. As of earlierthis week, leaf stem and root
(13:21):
symptoms have been observed inShelby County, an area known
with a history for the disease.Additional cases have been
confirmed in University ofIllinois research plots in
Madison and Macoupin Counties,which also have recurrence of
disease pressure. I spoke withYobai plant pathologist Boris
Camilletting about the disease.
(13:43):
Tell me about red crown rot as adisease. What is it?
Boris Camiletti (13:47):
So red crown rot is a new and emerging
disease here in the Midwest.It's a soy borne disease. It's
causing some yield reductions incommercial fields. It's
spreading. It was first detectedin 2018 in Pike County, but now
it's spread throughout thestate, and every season we
(14:07):
report new counties with thedisease.
And once you have the disease ina field, it's a pathogen that
can produce some resistantstructures called microsclerotia
that will remain in the soil andwill cause infections the
following seasons. This is whywhen we highlight a county in
our maps to keep track of thedisease, we just keep it
(14:30):
highlighted because there arehigh chances that you will see
the problem again the followingseasons.
Todd Gleason (14:37):
When I took a look at that map on
cropprotectionnetwork.org. Itshowed Illinois as primarily the
place in the Midwest that hasred crown rot. Do we know why
that's the case?
Boris Camiletti (14:52):
Yeah, no. Actually, we don't. What you see
in the map is how we were ableto keep track of the disease. So
this disease can cause symptomsthat can be very similar to
those caused by other diseasesthat is called sudden death
syndrome, which is a very wellestablished disease in soybeans
(15:13):
in the Midwest. So there achance that for years this
disease has been diagnosed asSudden Death Syndrome.
Todd Gleason (15:24):
It is called red crown rot for a reason. Can you
give me that and how farmers andothers might be able to identify
it in the field?
Boris Camiletti (15:33):
Yeah, so it's called red crown rot because it
will cause a red discolorationat the base, at the stem base,
and this discoloration can benoticed or observed even during
the vegetative stages. Then,more close to R1, you can start
seeing the foliar symptoms,although they are more common
(15:56):
between R3 and R5. So we need tobe very careful with the
diagnosis and we alwaysencourage everybody to send
samples to our planned clinicthat in just a couple of days
can give you the rightdiagnosis.
Todd Gleason (16:10):
Is there a reason to treat for this, whether it be
in the field already or prior toits existence in the field?
Boris Camiletti (16:20):
So for this disease, we don't have any
foliar fungicides so far thatcan help you to control the
disease. So there is not muchthat we can do in season to
control the disease, but youknow that you had it in the
past, there are some seedtreatments that are already
registered to suppress thedisease, and that's something
(16:44):
that you can consider in futureseasons if you are dealing with
this disease.
Todd Gleason (16:49):
What would you like farmers to do when they're
scouting their fields? Won'twant to walk through a soybean
field, but what should they do?
Boris Camiletti (17:01):
So, last week we sampled seven fields in
Shelby County. There were fieldsthat we knew that they had a
problem in the past, so we knowthat the disease is there in
2023, right? So we visited theplots from the road. Honestly,
(17:22):
you can't see anything. So youneed to walk the fields, go very
into the fields to start seeingthe symptoms.
So the foliar symptoms will showup later than the stem, for
example. So if you want toscout, if you go and you scout
(17:43):
and you don't see any foliarsymptoms, you still can check
the stems to see if you see thisred discoloration on the stem
base. But if you see thesymptoms in the fields of the
farmers or agronomists and wantto share the location with us,
we can run our detection modelto see where are the hot spots
(18:06):
and will also help us improveour model and to validate our
model for red and broaddetection.
Todd Gleason (18:16):
All
Boris Camiletti (18:20):
our research is supported by the Illinois
Sovereign Association, so we arevery grateful for the support.
And most of what we do is publicresearch, so it will be
available at the end of theseason.
Todd Gleason (18:35):
That was University of Illinois Extension
field crops plant pathologistBoris Camilletti discussing red
crown rot of soybean. Thedisease can often be mistaken
from the roadway as SDS orsudden death syndrome and
require scouting to confirm itspresence in a field. You're
(19:06):
listening to the closing marketreport from Illinois Public
Media on this Thursdayafternoon. Let's take a look at
the weather forecast now withMike Tenora. He's at T Storm
Weather, the president and CEOthere.
Find him online at tstorm.net.Mike, thanks for being with us.
Let's begin with just how wetwe've been across the Midwest
(19:28):
first.
Mike Tannura (19:29):
Well, we just went through the wettest July across
the seven state Corn Belt since1993, and that gives you an idea
of just how much rain we'veseen. A lot of that wetness is
being driven by what happened inIowa. Around 10 inches fell
across the state in this month,and that also is the wettest
since just over 10 inches in1993. So this just is telling us
(19:50):
that we've had a lot of rain andthe only other month that even
comes close to this would be1992. So you go back to 1960 and
basically this was the thirdwettest July of the last sixty
five seasons.
So that kind of gives us abackground of where we are.
Another way we can look at thisis with our proprietary data.
(20:11):
And we like to look at things indifferent windows of time. If we
look at it over the lastfourteen days or the last thirty
days or the last sixty days, UScorn is the wettest in more than
fifteen years by this measure.So all these things are pointing
to we're in the middle of one ofthe wetter growing seasons on
record.
This also applies to soybeansbut the soybean story isn't
(20:33):
quite as pronounced. That'sbecause it really hasn't been
raining very much in the MidSouth in recent weeks. That's
kind of holding some of thosenumbers back a little bit. But
the point is, Todd, is that it'svery wet out there and arguably
too wet in some areas, andthat'll kinda be the story of
this growing season.
Todd Gleason (20:50):
When you look forward, how does the month of
August lay out?
Mike Tannura (20:53):
Well, as you can walk outside and see today, it's
much much cooler than it hasbeen. A large cool front went
through, and that's going toleave this cool air mass in
place into early next week. Nowwe don't think this is going to
be a part of a major patternchange because we are going to
warm up once we get beyondSunday and Monday. Now is it
going to return to highs in thenineties and lows in the
(21:15):
seventies to 80 degrees?Probably not.
We could see a couple of dayslike that here and there. But
the pattern going forward looksmuch more typical, which is
where you kind of warm up for afew days, then you cool down for
a few days, then you warm backup. And with that, you'll get
some rain. Now the biguncertainty is, you know, how
much rain are we going to see?The setup that's coming up for
(21:37):
next week does not look nearlyas what it has been.
So we don't think we're going tosee these real big rains that
we've been experiencing inrecent weeks. There'll just be
some scattered storms here andthere. And then as far as the
effect of that corn and soybeanyields, well, that's a tricky
question because typically youwant to see a lot of rain at
this time of the year,especially for soybeans. So if
(21:59):
we did see that, it might not benecessarily a great story
because of how wet it is now. Sowet plus wet equals too wet.
So then we might not want to seeall that much rain. But then of
course, that gets a littlecomplicated too because then you
have to start asking yourself,well, what's the exact amount of
rain that I need to have anideal setup? And that whole
(22:21):
equation has been really thrownoff by the rain amounts over the
last several weeks. So kind of atricky setup in that regard, but
rainfall at least going forwardlooks to be a little more
typical than what it has been.
Todd Gleason (22:32):
Mike, thank you much. I appreciate it.
Mike Tannura (22:34):
Yeah. Thank you, Todd.
Todd Gleason (22:35):
You're welcome. That's Mike Tenora. He is with t
storm weather at tstorm.netonline. You've been listening to
the closing market report onthis Thursday afternoon. Don't
forget we'll record commodityweek today and post it to our
website this afternoon about 6PMat willag.org, willag.0rg.
(22:57):
It'll air on many of these radiostations over the weekend, and
you can hear in its entiretytomorrow during the 02:00 hour
here on Illinois Public Media.I'm extension's Todd Gleason.
Matt Bennett (23:49):
Hi.
From the land to Grant University in Urbana
(00:02):
Champaign, Illinois. This is theclosing market reported as the
July 2025. I'm extension's ToddGleason. Coming up, we'll talk
about the commodity markets withMatt Bennett. He's agmarket.net
in Windsor, Illinois.
That's located in Shelby County.We'll stay in Shelby County and
discuss red crown rot, which hasappeared there in soybean
(00:24):
fields. We'll do that withIllinois Extension plant
pathologist Boris Camilletti.You won't want to miss that one.
And then we'll continue on withthe theme of soybeans and move
to the Soybean Associationheadquarters where this morning
in Bloomington, I spoke withAndrew Larson, their government
relations specialist, about theone big beautiful bill act.
(00:46):
And then as we close out ourtime together, we'll take a look
at the weather forecast and thewet July and what August might
bring. We'll do that with MikeTenora at t storm weather on
this Thursday edition of theclosing market report from
Illinois Public Media. It ispublic radio for the farming
world online on demand atwillag.0rg.
announce (01:12):
Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by
University of IllinoisExtension.
Todd Gleason (01:17):
At the CME Group today, September corn at $3.94,
2 and a quarter higher, Decemberat $4.13 and 3 quarters up a
penny and a half a bushel, andthe March at $4.30 and a half up
one cent for the corn. Augustsoybeans, $9.06 $1 for the old
crop down 6. November at $9.89and a quarter 6.5¢ lower. Bean
(01:39):
meal futures at 2.618 up 1.1.The bean oil at $55.58.92 lower
on the afternoon.
Wheat futures for the soft breadin the December contract at
$5.42 and a half opinion threequarters lower, and the hard red
December at $5.44 and 3 quartersup two and a half cents on the
(02:01):
day. Live cattle futures inChicago finished the nearby at
$2.23 15. That's down $6.57 anda half cents. Feeders $8.20
lower, and the lean hogs 37 anda half cents higher for the day.
They finished at $89 and 57 anda half cents on this Thursday
(02:21):
afternoon.
You're listening to the closingmarket report from Illinois
Public Media. Matt Bennett fromagmarket.net now joins us to
take a look at what's beenhappening in the marketplace.
Hi, Matt. Thank you for beingwith us. What have you been
watching closely today?
Matt Bennett (02:39):
Yeah. A couple three different things. I mean,
you know, you see the dollarcontinue to move a little bit
higher, and, clearly, that's aheadwind on commodities that
don't need an additionalheadwind. You look at the corn
market actually settled a littlebit higher, which is certainly
nice to see. But unfortunately,that's after we've really gotten
(03:00):
pummeled here over the lastcouple of weeks.
Just on the eighteenth, wetraded September corn up to
$4.11 And right now, settledtoday at $3.94. So a lot of
these cash bushels, I think,little bit of a, you know, give
up mode type situation, and alot of those bushels are are
kinda showing up. You know, someof your end users, there's been
(03:23):
a few pushes here and there. AndI and I believe some of the end
users were run a little bitthin, but a lot of the pushes
that we've heard about have havestarted to dry up. Bean market
off just a little.
I think the bean market's stillconcerned, you know, about are
we going to get a trade dealwith China or not? You know,
they've essentially bought nobeans off of us. So, you know,
(03:46):
the bean crop looks good. Maybenot as good as corn does
relatively speaking but goodenough. Certainly looking at the
demand situation and overallworld balance sheet.
Todd Gleason (03:56):
On the tariff side, the Trump administration
along with Mexico announcingtoday that they will extend
trade talks for another ninetydays. The market seemed to take
that in stride and really cornand most ag products are covered
by the USMCA anyway. However,does that give you pause as it's
(04:19):
related to China given that theTrump administration is already
talking about extensions for oneof our largest trade partners?
Matt Bennett (04:28):
Yeah. I mean, it's it's a little bit aggravating, I
think, for a lot of us in thetrade did not have the direction
that we'd like to have. Youknow, we hear about a lot of the
trade deals getting finalized orpushed through, but we haven't
really gotten a whole lot ofspecifics. If you look at the
pause that you just mentioned,you know, clearly Mexico's been
a massive buyer of corn thisyear. You certainly have to hope
(04:51):
that that would be an easy oneto come to grips with here
pretty quickly, and it needs to,quite frankly.
But at the same time, you know,there's no guarantees here.
Unfortunately, it's it's prettytough to put your finger on
anything right now and say, hey,this is a guarantee, you know,
with what we've been dealingwith. So there's a lot of
(05:11):
unknowns here, and it makes itreally tough on the producer
who, quite frankly, is very muchundersold on new crop, both corn
and beans. And if the vastmajority of growers would sell
today, they're most likely goingto be selling underwater unless
they're assuming a yield thatwe've been hearing whispers of.
Some guys think they could seeyou know, you know, well above
(05:34):
APH yields, you know, in a largeportion of the Corn Belt.
Those yields are certainlypossible, but still, I think
it's unfortunate in that therecould be a fair amount of people
that actually raise a recordcrop and lose money this year.
So, you know, I take no joy insaying that. It's just the fact
the reality looking at priceswhere they're at today.
Todd Gleason (05:54):
How do you discuss this with producers? Because if
they're looking at beingunderwater, is there much that
they can do to protectthemselves going forward to try
to find a way to get more out ofthe marketplace?
Matt Bennett (06:06):
Well, I think one of the biggest challenges we've
got, Todd, is probably basis.You know, you look at basis for
fall on corn, and, know, some ofthese guys have actually pushed
basis a little bit here latelybecause the grower hasn't sold a
lot of corn. Now they've relayedto me that they may push a
little bit for quantity, but,you know, they expect basis to
get super wide this fall. Andwhy wouldn't it? You know, if
(06:27):
you have multiple countiesthroughout the Corn Belt, you
know, posting well above recordyields, which is the assumption
you make with some of theseextremely large national yield
numbers out there, thenobviously, you're gonna have a
bit of a issue moving thiscorner around and finding a home
for all of it.
So there's no doubt basis couldget super wide. We've told guys,
(06:47):
if you need money in the fall,let's not make that decision
going across the scalenecessarily. Maybe try to shop
for some basis, get some of thatbooked. But then at the same
time, you know, turn around andmaybe buy yourself a make call
spread. I mean, we didn't tellthem guys a limited risk
position just in case this thinggets a post harvest bounce, just
in case we flip the narrative oncorn, which I think will happen
(07:08):
at some point.
The reason I think that is dueto the fact that we see corn
acres dipping precipitously nextyear for a variety of reasons.
Maybe the biggest one is thecorn to fertilizer ratio and in
tandem with the grower having aliquidity issue right now. So
you've got to think that thatwill flip at some point. That
keeps you in the game, gets yourhands on your money and maybe
(07:31):
pay some interest off. But weall know that most growers are
going to have some financialneeds for this fall.
And boy, I don't want to bemaking the decision on whether I
want a store or sell when I goacross a scale October 10,
because I'm afraid the basis inCentral Illinois could be 50
under.
Todd Gleason (07:46):
Looking into 2026, fertilizer costs appeared to
have jumped in mid summer. Isthat what you were hearing?
Matt Bennett (07:53):
Oh yeah. I mean, fertilizer costs were already
high, but then clearly, youknow, we've had issues,
especially with the phosphatemarket. You know, there's just
no relief there. Clearly, potashhas been cheap relative to
phosphate for quite some time. Imean, I'm talking pretty much
the last year.
Nitrogen costs also look quitehigh as well, though. And so
(08:15):
whenever you put that corn tofertilizer ratio and mix, I
mean, it's essentially thehighest we've ever seen other
than 2,008. And so after two,what looks like the third
straight year, according to aFarmDoc team of underwater type
margins, it makes it reallytough on a grower to step in and
spend that kind of money on dryfertilizer and push corn acres
(08:37):
for 26. So, you know, I thinkthat it's gonna have a pretty
big impact. The last thing I'llsay on acres is that, you know,
whenever you whenever you see abig acreage year that jumps up
like we did this year, almost4,000,000 acres, typically, the
next year, you lose a fairamount of acres.
So I don't even know if you getto 90.6 from last year. So I do
think better days are ahead atsome point, but it could get
(08:59):
pretty ugly between now and thenas well.
Todd Gleason (09:00):
Hey. Thanks much. We'll talk with you again next
week.
Matt Bennett (09:03):
Absolutely. Thanks.
Todd Gleason (09:04):
That's Matt Bennett. He is with
agmarket.net. I'm University ofIllinois Extension's Todd
Gleeson. We're now joined byAndrew Larson, government
relations at the IllinoisSoybean Association held a town
hall meeting at theirheadquarters in Bloomington
(09:27):
Normal today to talk about someof the things that have been
happening. I'd like to discussthe one big beautiful bill act
with you.
Three items of concern from theIllinois Soybean Association.
The first just simply has to dowith reconciliation act process
itself and how SNAP and farmpolicies went through it.
Andrew Larson (09:50):
Yeah. I I think our our observation is that we
wanna make sure that the farmbill, which has always been a
bipartisan and great coalitionbetween the hunger you know,
folks advocating for for hungryfolks around the country and
agriculture come together, andthat we also have the
opportunity to really discussthese farm bills and farm policy
in an open manner. We know thatthings happen quickly in the
(10:14):
reconciliation process, and wereally wanna make sure that we
return to regular order and passsome farm bills on the regular
order and schedule and make surethat we have that opportunity to
really dive into all of agpolicy comprehensively so that
we can achieve the best valuefor the entire country.
Todd Gleason (10:30):
The second issue relates to crop insurance SEO,
in particular, the Farm Doc teamand its one big beautiful bill
act review webinar suggestingthat this has been transitioned,
SEO that is, from a cropinsurance program, kind of the
no do no harm area, to a directpayment program, and that it's
(10:52):
also skewed to other parts ofthe country, particularly the
South.
Andrew Larson (10:57):
Yeah. I mean, that just goes back to our our
desire to have more openconversations about what's
happening in foreign policy. Youknow, I think that it we want
folks that were if they receivebenefits of these changes and
these programs, let's addresswhy they need those changes, and
let's look at that holisticallyand have the opportunity to
bring the voice and the concernof Midwestern Illinois farmers
into that conversation as wellin the same way. Because, you
(11:19):
know, folks may have differentneeds in parts of the country,
but let's make sure that we passsomething that makes sense. We
work on things in the futurethat continue to make sense for
everyone.
Todd Gleason (11:26):
And finally, something that has been
trumpeted by much of agriculturebut still is not clear exactly
how it moves through the systemis 45 z. This would involve
biofuels. The Illinois SoybeanAssociation would like to see a
transition period, if nothingelse, using the Blenders Tax
Credit or 40 a.
Andrew Larson (11:47):
Yeah. Absolutely. The 40 a credit's worked really
well for over twenty years inthis country as with
incentivizing the retail sale ofbiodiesel, particularly here in
Illinois, coupled with our statesales tax exemption. 45 z
changes how the business and taxrelationships happen, and
there's still a lot ofuncertainty. The rules aren't
written yet by the Trumpadministration.
Even if we see those rules herein the next few months, there's
(12:08):
still a lot of biodiesel plantsbeen hurting across the country,
and it's such a great demanddriver for soybeans and soybean
oil. We wanna continue to makesure we have that robust gallon
for over 300 mil robust marketfor over 300,000,000 gallons of
biodiesel here in Illinoisannually. It's a great Illinois
success story, something thathelps drive support basis and
support farmers across the statein Illinois. So we wanna
continue to make sure it'sthere. And without some of this
(12:29):
additional certainty throughforty a, we believe that
continues to put that in insomewhat of jeopardy.
Todd Gleason (12:34):
Andrew Larson is with the Illinois Soybean
Association and managesgovernment relations for them.
We talked to him at an IllinoisSoybean Association town hall
meeting in Bloomington Normalthis morning. You're listening
to the closing market reportcelebrating forty years on the
(12:57):
air. Some 10,000 episodes andmore than 30,000 interviews.
Thanks for taking your time withus this afternoon.
Our theme music, by the way, iswritten, performed, produced in
courtesy of Logan County,Illinois farmer Tim Gleason. Now
up next, symptoms of red crownrot are appearing in commercial
soybean fields. As of earlierthis week, leaf stem and root
(13:21):
symptoms have been observed inShelby County, an area known
with a history for the disease.Additional cases have been
confirmed in University ofIllinois research plots in
Madison and Macoupin Counties,which also have recurrence of
disease pressure. I spoke withYobai plant pathologist Boris
Camilletting about the disease.
(13:43):
Tell me about red crown rot as adisease. What is it?
Boris Camiletti (13:47):
So red crown rot is a new and emerging
disease here in the Midwest.It's a soy borne disease. It's
causing some yield reductions incommercial fields. It's
spreading. It was first detectedin 2018 in Pike County, but now
it's spread throughout thestate, and every season we
(14:07):
report new counties with thedisease.
And once you have the disease ina field, it's a pathogen that
can produce some resistantstructures called microsclerotia
that will remain in the soil andwill cause infections the
following seasons. This is whywhen we highlight a county in
our maps to keep track of thedisease, we just keep it
(14:30):
highlighted because there arehigh chances that you will see
the problem again the followingseasons.
Todd Gleason (14:37):
When I took a look at that map on
cropprotectionnetwork.org. Itshowed Illinois as primarily the
place in the Midwest that hasred crown rot. Do we know why
that's the case?
Boris Camiletti (14:52):
Yeah, no. Actually, we don't. What you see
in the map is how we were ableto keep track of the disease. So
this disease can cause symptomsthat can be very similar to
those caused by other diseasesthat is called sudden death
syndrome, which is a very wellestablished disease in soybeans
(15:13):
in the Midwest. So there achance that for years this
disease has been diagnosed asSudden Death Syndrome.
Todd Gleason (15:24):
It is called red crown rot for a reason. Can you
give me that and how farmers andothers might be able to identify
it in the field?
Boris Camiletti (15:33):
Yeah, so it's called red crown rot because it
will cause a red discolorationat the base, at the stem base,
and this discoloration can benoticed or observed even during
the vegetative stages. Then,more close to R1, you can start
seeing the foliar symptoms,although they are more common
(15:56):
between R3 and R5. So we need tobe very careful with the
diagnosis and we alwaysencourage everybody to send
samples to our planned clinicthat in just a couple of days
can give you the rightdiagnosis.
Todd Gleason (16:10):
Is there a reason to treat for this, whether it be
in the field already or prior toits existence in the field?
Boris Camiletti (16:20):
So for this disease, we don't have any
foliar fungicides so far thatcan help you to control the
disease. So there is not muchthat we can do in season to
control the disease, but youknow that you had it in the
past, there are some seedtreatments that are already
registered to suppress thedisease, and that's something
(16:44):
that you can consider in futureseasons if you are dealing with
this disease.
Todd Gleason (16:49):
What would you like farmers to do when they're
scouting their fields? Won'twant to walk through a soybean
field, but what should they do?
Boris Camiletti (17:01):
So, last week we sampled seven fields in
Shelby County. There were fieldsthat we knew that they had a
problem in the past, so we knowthat the disease is there in
2023, right? So we visited theplots from the road. Honestly,
(17:22):
you can't see anything. So youneed to walk the fields, go very
into the fields to start seeingthe symptoms.
So the foliar symptoms will showup later than the stem, for
example. So if you want toscout, if you go and you scout
(17:43):
and you don't see any foliarsymptoms, you still can check
the stems to see if you see thisred discoloration on the stem
base. But if you see thesymptoms in the fields of the
farmers or agronomists and wantto share the location with us,
we can run our detection modelto see where are the hot spots
(18:06):
and will also help us improveour model and to validate our
model for red and broaddetection.
Todd Gleason (18:16):
All
Boris Camiletti (18:20):
our research is supported by the Illinois
Sovereign Association, so we arevery grateful for the support.
And most of what we do is publicresearch, so it will be
available at the end of theseason.
Todd Gleason (18:35):
That was University of Illinois Extension
field crops plant pathologistBoris Camilletti discussing red
crown rot of soybean. Thedisease can often be mistaken
from the roadway as SDS orsudden death syndrome and
require scouting to confirm itspresence in a field. You're
(19:06):
listening to the closing marketreport from Illinois Public
Media on this Thursdayafternoon. Let's take a look at
the weather forecast now withMike Tenora. He's at T Storm
Weather, the president and CEOthere.
Find him online at tstorm.net.Mike, thanks for being with us.
Let's begin with just how wetwe've been across the Midwest
(19:28):
first.
Mike Tannura (19:29):
Well, we just went through the wettest July across
the seven state Corn Belt since1993, and that gives you an idea
of just how much rain we'veseen. A lot of that wetness is
being driven by what happened inIowa. Around 10 inches fell
across the state in this month,and that also is the wettest
since just over 10 inches in1993. So this just is telling us
(19:50):
that we've had a lot of rain andthe only other month that even
comes close to this would be1992. So you go back to 1960 and
basically this was the thirdwettest July of the last sixty
five seasons.
So that kind of gives us abackground of where we are.
Another way we can look at thisis with our proprietary data.
(20:11):
And we like to look at things indifferent windows of time. If we
look at it over the lastfourteen days or the last thirty
days or the last sixty days, UScorn is the wettest in more than
fifteen years by this measure.So all these things are pointing
to we're in the middle of one ofthe wetter growing seasons on
record.
This also applies to soybeansbut the soybean story isn't
(20:33):
quite as pronounced. That'sbecause it really hasn't been
raining very much in the MidSouth in recent weeks. That's
kind of holding some of thosenumbers back a little bit. But
the point is, Todd, is that it'svery wet out there and arguably
too wet in some areas, andthat'll kinda be the story of
this growing season.
Todd Gleason (20:50):
When you look forward, how does the month of
August lay out?
Mike Tannura (20:53):
Well, as you can walk outside and see today, it's
much much cooler than it hasbeen. A large cool front went
through, and that's going toleave this cool air mass in
place into early next week. Nowwe don't think this is going to
be a part of a major patternchange because we are going to
warm up once we get beyondSunday and Monday. Now is it
going to return to highs in thenineties and lows in the
(21:15):
seventies to 80 degrees?Probably not.
We could see a couple of dayslike that here and there. But
the pattern going forward looksmuch more typical, which is
where you kind of warm up for afew days, then you cool down for
a few days, then you warm backup. And with that, you'll get
some rain. Now the biguncertainty is, you know, how
much rain are we going to see?The setup that's coming up for
(21:37):
next week does not look nearlyas what it has been.
So we don't think we're going tosee these real big rains that
we've been experiencing inrecent weeks. There'll just be
some scattered storms here andthere. And then as far as the
effect of that corn and soybeanyields, well, that's a tricky
question because typically youwant to see a lot of rain at
this time of the year,especially for soybeans. So if
(21:59):
we did see that, it might not benecessarily a great story
because of how wet it is now. Sowet plus wet equals too wet.
So then we might not want to seeall that much rain. But then of
course, that gets a littlecomplicated too because then you
have to start asking yourself,well, what's the exact amount of
rain that I need to have anideal setup? And that whole
(22:21):
equation has been really thrownoff by the rain amounts over the
last several weeks. So kind of atricky setup in that regard, but
rainfall at least going forwardlooks to be a little more
typical than what it has been.
Todd Gleason (22:32):
Mike, thank you much. I appreciate it.
Mike Tannura (22:34):
Yeah. Thank you, Todd.
Todd Gleason (22:35):
You're welcome. That's Mike Tenora. He is with t
storm weather at tstorm.netonline. You've been listening to
the closing market report onthis Thursday afternoon. Don't
forget we'll record commodityweek today and post it to our
website this afternoon about 6PMat willag.org, willag.0rg.
(22:57):
It'll air on many of these radiostations over the weekend, and
you can hear in its entiretytomorrow during the 02:00 hour
here on Illinois Public Media.I'm extension's Todd Gleason.
Matt Bennett (23:49):
Hi.
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