January 15, 2026 • 30 mins
Panelists
- Logan Kimmel, RoachAg.com
- Jim McCormick, AgMraket.net
- Mike Zuzolo, GlobalCommResearch.com
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Todd Gleason (00:00):
This is the January 15 edition of Commodity
(00:03):
Week.
announce (00:08):
Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by
University of IllinoisExtension.
Todd Gleason (00:14):
Well, welcome to commodity week. I am Todd
Gleason. Our panelists for theday include Logan Kimmel at
roachag.com. He's out ofNaperville, Illinois. Jim
McCormick is here fromagmarket.net in Barrington,
Illinois.
And Mike Zusolo joins us fromAtchison, Kansas at
globalcomresearch.com. CommodityWeek is a production of Illinois
public media. It's public radiofor the farming world online on
(00:37):
demand at willag.org. MikeZusolo, let's get a list of
items. We'll start with you ofthings that we should discuss
today.
What are you thinking about?
Mike Zuzolo (00:48):
A very welcome Thursday close heading into the
end of the week, Todd, with thesoybeans posting an outside week
higher, new two week high aftermaking new two week lows after
WASDE numbers. I'd like to breakthat down a little bit.
Todd Gleason (01:04):
And Jim McCormick on your list.
Jim McCormick (01:06):
Probably need to talk about the balance sheet
adjustments that the governmentmade on, on the corn and, the
carryout feed and residual andwhat that may mean down the
line.
Todd Gleason (01:15):
And Logan Kimmel.
Logan Kimmel (01:17):
Yeah. After going, over all the numbers, with the
report here from Monday, I thinkit's a good opportunity to talk
about expectations in themarketplace going forward for
producers on what to be doingwith the remaining old crop they
have and start looking at somenew crop ideas.
Todd Gleason (01:34):
Let's begin with the Monday report. It was an
interesting report related toboth the crop production and the
WASDE figures or worldagricultural supply and demand
estimates along with the winterwheat numbers and the grain
stocks. Mike, I I want you torun through the winter wheat
planted acreage numbers for meif you could really quickly and
(01:57):
give me a quick assessment ofthat, and then we'll get into
the meat of those reports thattook place on Monday.
Mike Zuzolo (02:04):
Yeah. You bet. 33,000,000 acres all winter
wheat, Todd. The trade waspretty much, on the low end of
that number. In other words,they were thinking 32.4.
So while it's a a lower numberas a whole over the last five
years, it was still above theaverage trade guess, so that
kinda put some different tint onthe reaction in the market. Hard
(02:24):
red wheat stayed pretty evenwith last year at 23.5. SRW, the
same 6.14 right there with lastyear. We did lose some in white
wheat with no surprise therewith the Upper Midwest Plains
issues that we've had weatherwise. They came in at 3.36.
Since the report came out andthose water those winter wheat
(02:46):
members have been digested, it'sreally the trade I think has
really gone back to what'shappening over in the Black Sea
and what's happening with thecrude oil market. They didn't
even really look at the factthat winter wheat, drought
issues on Thursday when we gotthe weekly update are still
posting 19% above a year ago,and we're looking fourteen days
(03:06):
out in hard red wheat beltcountry with very little precip
coming off 60 degreetemperatures heading into
twenty, thirty degreetemperatures. So still a lot of
weather, I think, to trade inthat wheat.
Todd Gleason (03:17):
Let's turn your attention to the balance sheet
adjustments. Jim McCormick, Iknow the one thing that we have
been talking about all week longis the 1,300,000 acres
adjustment for harvestedacreage. It was upped by that
much by USDA. That pushed totalproduction over 17,000,000,000
bushels for corn. How do youlook at that number and evaluate
(03:43):
it as it's related to marketingplans?
Jim McCormick (03:45):
Well, there's no doubt about it, Todd. You look
at that number, it definitelysurprised the market. You saw
also an upward revision inyield, slight adjustments to
last year's crop. The reality isyou're pushing your crop over
18,500,000,000 bushel supply. Iknow, Todd, there's some people
don't like the number.
Some people don't believe thenumber. I view the number as
(04:07):
kind of how you're going to haveto watch an official officiating
the NCAA football game Mondaynight. You may not like that
holding call, but if they makethe holding call, that's the
call you got to go with. This isa number we're working with
right now. And if the trade isunder their perception, we've
got a huge supply of cornunfortunately, an oversupply
(04:27):
compared to the current demand.
Export sales have beenphenomenal. Ethanol is there,
but unfortunately we've donesuch a good job producing this
crop. We are going to have aburden of supply. That feed
number, Todd's the number thatmakes me really, really worried.
I just think unfortunately thegovernment does what it does.
Big yield, big feed and residualnumber, but that number just
(04:48):
looks like it's a sore thumb tome and that feed residual is
overstated in that carry out,which is over 2,200,000,000. I
think it essentially createscloser to two five as we go
through the marketing year, andthat is gonna be a wet blanket
on any kind of rallies we try toattempt.
Todd Gleason (05:02):
Wow. That is a big number. I'll come back to you on
that in just a minute. I dowanna give Logan Kimmel a chance
to hear his reaction too tothose numbers and how you have
evaluated them over the ensuingthree to four days, from the
corn or the soybean side.
Logan Kimmel (05:20):
Yeah. No, Jim. Spot on there. Very good points.
Clearly the trade was thrown offguard on that.
And I think another, I guessconcern on top of those numbers
is just the amount of unpricedold crop corn on farm that
(05:40):
whether that be on basis, it'sgoing to get rolled or just
eventually sold over the courseof six months. I think that
might have more pressure on anysort of rally in the corn market
on old crop specifically. Youhad a market for four months
that maintained a range and heldon breaks due to the strong
(06:04):
demand. But I think what wefound out despite that, is just
the massive supply. My fearwould be that setting the tone
here for maybe the next two tothree months until we have
another catalyst or potentialcatalyst to reverse that trend.
(06:24):
You throw the spec funds, whowere fairly well on the
sidelines going into that, andmore likely than not taking a
short approach, here goingforward using that information.
As Jim said, the numbers arewhat they are and if you don't
agree with them, you do have tounderstand that I think that the
trade is going to use thosegoing forward.
Todd Gleason (06:45):
Mike Souslaw, if you could put two things into
context for me. Jim talked aboutthe feed residual number. It did
go up by a 100,000,000 bushels.That means consumption went up a
100,000,000 bushels. However,when you look at the season's
average cash price, USDA,despite this 2,200,000,000
bushel carryout, a 200,000,000extra bushel put into that
(07:11):
ending stocks from December toJanuary, raised the season's
average cash price by a dime to$4.10 from $4.
So that either says they believean awful lot of corn got sold at
a much higher price. Well and orthat an awful lot of feed, that
extra 100,000,000 bushels isactually going to create a lot
(07:34):
of demand, one of the two. AndI'm wondering how you can square
those things.
Mike Zuzolo (07:39):
Yeah. I can't square the feed. I think Jim,
you know, nailed that with theidea that the feed and residual
is a leftover number. Yeah. Theyput feed, but then there's the
residual, and it's the it'swhat's whatsoever leftover in
the bucket to make the carryovernumber.
I think there's a third optionhere, Todd, and that could be
that the exports are not goingto back down. And I think this
is where what Logan talked aboutand Jim talked about. I'm gonna
(08:02):
run right in between and try andand and find a hole here with
the idea that if those Illinoisand Iowa numbers are too high,
which I still think they arebecause of the fact that the
yield reductions were not enoughto explain a lot of the ground
pile losses, and Iowa's 97.4harvested to planted number is
(08:24):
way out of whack. Illinois' 98.2harvested to planted is way out
of whack, and Nebraska's 97.2harvested percentage to planted
is way out of whack. I thinkwe're going to find out
relatively quickly through thespreads and through the cash
price with Illinois being theepicenter whether USDA's number
(08:47):
is right or not.
And I I I find it veryinteresting that we saw
Thursday's export sales verystrong, but then we saw a lot of
purchases in beans and corn, andSaudi Arabia's out there for
over a half a million metrictons of wheat. Is that war fear?
Are they discounting the WASDEreport? I think we really gotta
keep our heads up right now.
Todd Gleason (09:08):
Do you think it will be a basis fix in this
case? I think that's what you'retelling me. Or will it be the
futures markets that manage toto suss out what this crop size
really is?
Mike Zuzolo (09:19):
My running assumption right now is that
after the commodity index buyingfrom the record high precious
metals prices, once that getsdone here in the first couple
weeks of January, the futuresmarket will be more of a fund
selling market mindset than thecash. And as you say, the basis
will be the keys to whether thatcrop is really out there in the
(09:43):
corn or not.
Todd Gleason (09:43):
Okay. So Jim McCormick, given that, and I
don't know whether that would beyour expectation for futures to,
I guess, drive sideways to lowermaybe. I don't know whether
that's what Mike if you cancorrect me if I'm wrong on that.
And then the basis would have todo the work, but it's still
gonna have to do the work at alower level. Is that right?
Jim McCormick (10:04):
Well, I think it's gonna be a bit challenging,
Todd. You know, The next ninetydays is going to get really
interesting. The one tweet yousaw a lot on Monday was the
bridge payment loan was justwiped out in one minute of the
trade of the market going downon Monday. Now it's going to be
(10:24):
a situation with where we'resitting at March corn at $4.2
East corn trading here at $4.5but that 4.2 corn, I think Logan
put it out, 65% of this cornsitting on farm, how much of it
is unpriced? Our commercial guysare telling us somewhere around
50% to 55% of the corn marketsunpriced.
The real question I think in thenext ninety days is going to be
(10:47):
up to the banker. You got a lotof guys trying to finance the
2026 crop. We've got a balancesheet that got really ugly
really quick despite how strongas Mike pointed out the export
pace has been. So the question Ithink in the cash market is
going to be, is the banker goingto force the producer to sell
(11:07):
more aggressively the nextninety days of the crop that's
in the bin because he doesn'twant to finance the 26 crop when
he's got half of last year'scrop on price. I can say that
it's just too much risk with thebalance sheet.
If they're forcing that farmerto sell the grain to generate
revenue, the basis isn't goingto have to do any lifting, it's
going to stay soft. If thefarmer can hold a lot tight and
(11:28):
the banker doesn't panic andthis cash market continues,
we'll have to see the basisimprove to keep that river
market flowing because theseexports have been phenomenal and
so far they remain very stronghere.
Todd Gleason (11:39):
Okay, so Logan, on the flip side of that,
agricultural economists prior tothe release of this USDA report
would say of the bridgepayments, do not use that to
make sure that you can hold onto the old crop corn, that it's
best to go ahead and make sales.I think, actually, most of our
(11:59):
analysts were in the same boatat that point. Should they, at
this point, use the bridgepayment in a different way? The
bank still knows it's gonnacome, but I guess depends on
when debts are due or when whenthey have to make a payment,
(12:20):
whether it's a land payment orsomething else, and, unless that
check comes faster than weexpect, I think by the February,
so it's a month and a half awaystill. It seems like it could be
a rough forty five days, Iguess.
Logan Kimmel (12:35):
Yeah. And I think, you brought that up. I believe
the last time I was on here, theannouncement had just came out
and we discussed that a littlein detail. And and I it's going
to be different from operationto operation, but generally
speaking, I think we're in anenvironment right now of, from a
marketing standpoint of you gotto live to see another day here,
(12:58):
whatever you got to do. It's notgood markets where a lot of
operations are in a tough spot,due to the high input cost and
low prices.
So I think, when we look at theamount of old crop on price,
payments coming in or not, youstill got to market what you
have left. And I think you cannow look at this old crop
(13:22):
situation here in the corn andlook for areas that if the
market were to rally to, mightbe areas that you want to let go
of some of that old crop tostart paying some bills. You've
got a zone that the markettraded for four months. I'm
guessing in this March corn areain 4.3 to $4.35 you're probably
(13:46):
going to hit some resistancethere. That might be areas for
producers to put together a planand lighten up on what they have
left here throughout the nextfew months.
But I agree the next ninety daysare going to be interesting just
with now the next big thingbeing any South America weather.
But ultimately planting andgrowing seasons here. How to
(14:07):
navigate that with what you haveleft, I think it's important to
sit down and put a plan togetherbecause we saw how quick these
markets can change here onMonday. And we're dealing with
such low prices year after yearhere now for a few years, it's
certainly something you want tobe on top of and have a plan in
place.
Todd Gleason (14:27):
So Mike, I think the producers, particularly with
corn, a twofold problem. Theyhave half of a crop left to
sell. They have a new crop incorn to market at some point,
and there's a lot of time left,but that crop just changed
dramatically in valuepotentially if particularly if
Jim McCormick is right, and wesee a 2,500,000,000 bushel
(14:51):
number for the old crop carryoutby the time we get to the fall.
How how do producers how are youtalking to producers about both
of those crop years and whatthey should really be thinking?
It's hard to sell two crops atone time, especially at a low
price.
Mike Zuzolo (15:08):
You're right. But I do think that there is a window
here with the corn and thebeans. We've just made the
highest level of new crop beanscompared to new crop corn since
early December on that bean cornratio. And I think if I were in
the shoes of the farmer rightnow, which we all three, four
actually Utah because you havefarm ground, all four of us are
(15:32):
kind of in those shoes. I wouldgo to the banker and the
financial lender and say, I'mready to lock in new crop beans
to help finance my 2026.
Give me more room to maneuver onmy old crop corn as a result of
that because I can lock in aprofit. And that's what was so
impressive on Thursday. What Imean by that is if you have any
(15:54):
old crop beans left and youknow, let's say USDA is right.
So you should have 70 bushelbeans and 220, 240 bushel corn
after the report. And so you'relooking at $700 plus of revenue
in old crop beans and nine fifth$909.50 in in old crop corn.
You're not that far away to goahead and let go of more beans
(16:14):
in the old crop. Let more beansgo away in the new crop. Why am
I saying that? Because the waythe USDA report was structured,
beans actually got the worstreport. We lost 60,000,000
bushels in exports, and wegained 3,000,000 metric tons in
Brazil crop.
And there's really no weather inBrazil right now to lean on,
whereas there is weather inArgentina and the corn crop to
(16:37):
lean on. So I really see theidea that what we're finishing
out this week with is beansleading the market higher with
the worst report of all, when itcomes to both The US and and
global ending stocks. So if theif the corn's gonna go lower, my
bet is it's gonna be because ofbeans. So get a get ahead of the
beans. Get get profitably soldin the new crop beans, and try
(16:59):
and buy some time in the corn.
Todd Gleason (17:01):
Tim McCormick, if, the news stories are correct,
most of what happened onThursday in the soybeans was
based on the Trumpadministration expectations to
set blending quotas for biofuelssometime by the March. And most,
I think, are thinking that theadministration would put in
(17:22):
volumes, that are close to the5,600,000,000 gallons, that they
have proposed, maybe as low as5.2, but at least in a range
that would be supportive ofsoybeans. Is this where
producers should should actuallysay, look. I've I've got beans
(17:45):
as Mike has said that I I canmake it through, the spring at
least by by making some sales,forward sales that is, and get
myself in a position where I'mnot completely leveraged by the
time I get to the fall.
Jim McCormick (18:03):
I agree with Mike. I mean, the beans rallied
today on the on the you know,the charts look a bit better on
the beans. He's right, it was avery bearish report, bean oil is
leading us up. It was a veryimpressive day on the bean,
although it is interesting Todd,how the market reacts. The
number pretty much came out atthe high end of what the
government already said they'reproposed and they acted like it
was something above and beyond,but you got the positive news.
(18:25):
And I agree with Mike. I mean,I've been telling our clients,
look, it's been a very ugly weekon Monday, but you still got the
Argentina weather to go. Youstill have the Brazilian
safrinha crop to go. You stillhave our crop to go. The world
corn supply Todd is at ten yearlows.
So I mean a 100% agree withMike. If I got to try to calm my
(18:46):
banker down, calm my fiscalnerves down, I move the beans
because you got a wall of beanscoming from Brazil. And our guys
tell us they've bought China'sbought about 12,000,000 metric
tons of beans. I would argue thebuys Todd were all political
buys. It wasn't an economic buy.
Brazil will sell the beanscheaper to the Chinese so they
may be done, but that corn storycould change if any one of these
(19:09):
countries, any one of us,Brazil, Argentina have a problem
with that tight world supply ofcorn. And you already seen an
incredibly strong export number.That number keeps up. You
hopefully will at least get arally to get corn back to the
high end of the near term range.So I'd be moving the beans and
trying to hold on to the corn,but I'd be realistic if you can
get corn back up near 4.5 Spotcorn could not get over $4.5
(19:32):
since the June with what was aone five carryout.
You're now staring at two twocarryout in the face that could
grow even more by late summerpotentially. You gotta respect
that, but I think like Logansaid, $4.35, four forty five to
$4.50, you wanna sell it andthen maybe use options if you
wanna play the what if we turnhot and dry this summer.
Todd Gleason (19:53):
And Logan, how are you thinking about marketing of
old and new crop soybeans still?
Logan Kimmel (19:57):
Well, I think just to kind of explain to reiterate,
on this new crop, it's stillearly in the ballgame. I know we
talked about how bad things lookhere after this report and the
concern on old crop. But I thinkon the new crop, have to be
optimistic if the market ispresenting opportunities. And I
(20:17):
agree 100% in the beans. Maybeimplement that in your marketing
strategy and give this old cropsome new more time.
Because I think if you seepositive headlines come out from
here today, you start getting alittle more chart support on
this November contract new cropbeans. And we start visiting
(20:40):
some prices, maybe we saw therethroughout December on the way
down. I think that would be aprudent thing to accomplish in
your marketing is having a planand use strength in a market
that you can go out and sellforward to get sales in the
books and a stake in the ground.That would go for new crop corn
as well. We've got a lot oftime, if we have some weather,
(21:03):
this spring or summer, you mighthave more opportunities down the
line, given how strong ourdemand is.
It's just right now getting fromA to B from now until planting.
You got to look foropportunities that you can take
advantage of and give yourself alittle more time. If you want to
implement options after a sale,you most certainly can do that.
(21:26):
There's tools to do that. But Ithink having a plan this time of
the year is a good marketingmove.
Todd Gleason (21:32):
Hey Mike, one of the things that came out earlier
in the week that I have not seenfollow-up on was related to Iran
and the President of The UnitedStates saying that any nation
trading with Iran would have a25% export or tariff, put on the
(21:52):
exports coming into The UnitedStates. I'm wondering how the
Chinese might view that overtime, and if it would be imposed
upon that nation. I'm guessingthat both Russia and China are
the targets of the 25% tariff.
Mike Zuzolo (22:11):
Yeah. I I think that was a big deal. And the
market saw that. I don't likeyou said, I don't think they
really followed up with itbecause of the drinking news
through a fire hose, but it wasvery quick to be seen in the
bean market as potentiallypriced bearish and negative
because of China's reaction.China was all over the Asian
press, saying that The US was,doing wrong by doing this and
(22:34):
and and instilling their, youknow, their weight behind things
inappropriately.
At the same time, we saw thecattle market really get excited
with the idea that Brazil wouldbe in the same camp as China and
be hit, and therefore, beefcouldn't get in here to this
country as cheap. So I I tellyou, Todd, in 2026 for me, I
(22:56):
just have to because of what wetalked about a minute ago with
the financial side of theequation. I just have to build
into my risk plan that Chinawill continue to disappoint us
on ag trade because we seegeopolitically, president Trump
economically and foreign policywise continue to take pages out
of Ronald Reagan's playbook, theLatin American blockade. Reagan
(23:19):
did that in '86. By '80 by '89,Noriega was gone out of Panama.
This is going back towards thehigher inflationary time periods
of the seventies, eighties, andearly nineties. So negative
China, positive inflation iskinda my general mindset.
Todd Gleason (23:37):
How do you, put that into context with China as
it's related to next fallsexports to China? Are they at
zero, at half where they arelike this year, or will they
make the 25,000,000 metric tons?
Mike Zuzolo (23:57):
I I don't I'm not forecasting 25. I think they
themselves on total are stilldown below 100. I would be
surprised if we could break 20in the in our marketing year for
China. I think it goes back tothe wheat and the crude oil
historically are the bestinflation plays after precious
metals. And look what they'vedone this week.
(24:18):
They've ripped the doors off thebull rocket at this point, and,
you know, you're looking closeto a $100 silver now.
Todd Gleason (24:24):
In our marketing year, you mean the current
marketing year at 20, so 12 plusanother eight by the time we get
to the end of the marketingyear, or you're looking at 20
for the following market?
Mike Zuzolo (24:32):
Thanks for correcting me. I would say 20 in
addition to eight. And and,yeah, in addition to eight. So
I'm I'm saying four from thepast marketing year and then
maybe another 2022, somethinglike that.
Todd Gleason (24:46):
Okay. Alright. So, what else do we need to take up,
Jim McCormick? What's what'skinda been on your mind? What a
producer's been asking you?
What are they really worriedabout?
Jim McCormick (24:57):
Well, right now, I mean, what they're really
worried about is how they'regonna make money. I mean,
honestly, it's a hard, we're ina hard situation right now where
we're at. I've been tellingconstant clients, it's mid
January. There's a lot of waterto get under the bridge. The
(25:20):
China deal, it could change inour heartbeat.
I'm very skeptical about the20,000,025 million dollars
whatever it was for the nextthree years, Todd. My guess is
we're gonna have to read it'llbe part of a renegotiation when
it's all said and done. I mean,look what's going on with
Venezuela. Venezuela was sellingChina a lot of crude oil. Trump
essentially told Venezuela youcan't sell it.
(25:41):
How does China handle thatpotentially? I I just think in
general, this is all gonna getrenegotiated, but that's gonna
add to the volatility. I dothink you're gonna have
opportunities, and I've justtried to counsel farmers to not
panic on report days. You gottalet the dust clear and kind of
see where it's at. We are verydry here in the Eastern Part of
(26:02):
the Midwest.
We'll see what happens, how thisall plays out. And the game plan
right now is to figure out thebest of your ability, what your
costs are, where you need tomarket grain. And that way you
have a decision to be made soyou can make the economic
decisions to pull the triggerand try to take some of the
emotion out of it because it'sgoing to be a very emotional
(26:24):
year because you're going tofeel the pressure if I don't
sell it right, we end up with atrend line yield. History says
prices are going to go a lotlower, but you also, know
someone's going to screamdrought in the Eastern Corn
Belt, especially as dry as weare in the parts of Illinois and
Indiana. And especially ourproducer where your listeners
are here in Illinois, it's goingbe very hard to sell it if it's
(26:47):
very warm and dry in Champaignper se.
So I look for a lot ofvolatility this year, but the
game plan now is to try to comeup a game, you know, an idea of
where you want to market grainso you can execute it if that
opportunity presents itself.
Todd Gleason (27:00):
Logan Kimmel, look forward to the prospective
plantings report that would besurvey numbers coming from the
USDA, but even before that, theannual USDA event that'll take
place in February, they'll dropsome numbers in, kind of our
first chance to see what theyreally have in mind. I well,
maybe the second because theywould have put them out in
(27:20):
November or early December aswell. I don't recall whether
they did that or not foracreage. What do you think, the
spread might be for corn versussoybean acres?
Jim McCormick (27:30):
Oh, it's a tough call.
Logan Kimmel (27:32):
I mean, I think, you guys wanna spend the money
and plant corn versus beans.Taking a look at these new crop
prices, I'm probably guessingstill there's more corn. You
know, that can change with thesenew crop prices having changed
quite a bit since Monday. That'skind of our thoughts leaning
(27:54):
towards more corn.
Todd Gleason (27:56):
Yeah, so still in that probably 94, 95,000,000
acres. Suppose, I don't know,Mike Zuzlow, these would be
numbers you would look at too.
Mike Zuzolo (28:05):
Yeah. I mean, I do think that in your part of the
country, you probably see morecorn. But I do think we need to
remember back in '17 18 beanacres were 89, 90,000,000 acres.
And the bigger those corn acresgot these last few months, the
more potential bean acres alongwith the problems in cotton
(28:27):
country and LDP in cottoncountry this year. This is not
boding well for small beanacres.
And so that's another piece ofthe puzzle, I think, that you
you diversify into not holdingboth crops because it does look
like there it could be a race tothe bottom as far as if you're
fiscally strapped soybeans lookreally good. And a lot of
(28:48):
producers the last two years ina row have been pretty happy
with their bean yields, comparedto their corn from generally
speaking, from what I've heard.
Todd Gleason (28:56):
Let's get a final comment from each of you now.
Jim McCormick from agmarket.net.We'll start with you today.
Jim McCormick (29:03):
Well, definitely was a tough, report we had
earlier in the week. The beanmarket seems to maybe pull a bit
of a double bottom in. We've gotsome positive news from the
government potentially onrenewables. I don't panic
producers out there, but beready to sell this rally at
least near term is myrecommendation.
Todd Gleason (29:20):
Logan Kimmel from roachag.com.
Logan Kimmel (29:23):
Grain producers, keep your head up. Livestock
producers, specifically hogs,we've seen a massive rally here
in these summer months North of107 on June and July. Got an
opportunity to lock in somecheap feed. Maybe take a look,
you see these summer hog marketsmove North Of 110, layering the
floor. We've seen what couldhappen in the grain markets.
(29:45):
You've caught up to the cattlenow. And if you've hogs coming
off here this summer, keep aneye on some, June and July
contracts.
Todd Gleason (29:51):
And finally, Mike Zuzlow, globalcomresearch.com.
Mike Zuzolo (29:55):
Yeah. I like what Logan just said. I just hit the
95 mark on April hogs. That's,our hedge target to get
something done, Todd. Also, asyou talked about in the cattle,
USDA did raise production forred meat by about 1.4% for 2026
commercial red meat productionin the report.
So they're seeing biggerproduction, not less production.
(30:15):
So big heads up there for qthree and q four.
Todd Gleason (30:19):
Commodity week, of course, is a production of
Illinois. Public media, it ispublic radio for the farming
world online on demand atwillag.org. Our thanks go to our
panelists. They include JimMcCormick, Mike Suzulow, and
Logan Kimmel. You have a greatweek.
I'm University of IllinoisExtension's, Todd Gleeson.
This is the January 15 edition of Commodity
(00:03):
Week.
announce (00:08):
Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by
University of IllinoisExtension.
Todd Gleason (00:14):
Well, welcome to commodity week. I am Todd
Gleason. Our panelists for theday include Logan Kimmel at
roachag.com. He's out ofNaperville, Illinois. Jim
McCormick is here fromagmarket.net in Barrington,
Illinois.
And Mike Zusolo joins us fromAtchison, Kansas at
globalcomresearch.com. CommodityWeek is a production of Illinois
public media. It's public radiofor the farming world online on
(00:37):
demand at willag.org. MikeZusolo, let's get a list of
items. We'll start with you ofthings that we should discuss
today.
What are you thinking about?
Mike Zuzolo (00:48):
A very welcome Thursday close heading into the
end of the week, Todd, with thesoybeans posting an outside week
higher, new two week high aftermaking new two week lows after
WASDE numbers. I'd like to breakthat down a little bit.
Todd Gleason (01:04):
And Jim McCormick on your list.
Jim McCormick (01:06):
Probably need to talk about the balance sheet
adjustments that the governmentmade on, on the corn and, the
carryout feed and residual andwhat that may mean down the
line.
Todd Gleason (01:15):
And Logan Kimmel.
Logan Kimmel (01:17):
Yeah. After going, over all the numbers, with the
report here from Monday, I thinkit's a good opportunity to talk
about expectations in themarketplace going forward for
producers on what to be doingwith the remaining old crop they
have and start looking at somenew crop ideas.
Todd Gleason (01:34):
Let's begin with the Monday report. It was an
interesting report related toboth the crop production and the
WASDE figures or worldagricultural supply and demand
estimates along with the winterwheat numbers and the grain
stocks. Mike, I I want you torun through the winter wheat
planted acreage numbers for meif you could really quickly and
(01:57):
give me a quick assessment ofthat, and then we'll get into
the meat of those reports thattook place on Monday.
Mike Zuzolo (02:04):
Yeah. You bet. 33,000,000 acres all winter
wheat, Todd. The trade waspretty much, on the low end of
that number. In other words,they were thinking 32.4.
So while it's a a lower numberas a whole over the last five
years, it was still above theaverage trade guess, so that
kinda put some different tint onthe reaction in the market. Hard
(02:24):
red wheat stayed pretty evenwith last year at 23.5. SRW, the
same 6.14 right there with lastyear. We did lose some in white
wheat with no surprise therewith the Upper Midwest Plains
issues that we've had weatherwise. They came in at 3.36.
Since the report came out andthose water those winter wheat
(02:46):
members have been digested, it'sreally the trade I think has
really gone back to what'shappening over in the Black Sea
and what's happening with thecrude oil market. They didn't
even really look at the factthat winter wheat, drought
issues on Thursday when we gotthe weekly update are still
posting 19% above a year ago,and we're looking fourteen days
(03:06):
out in hard red wheat beltcountry with very little precip
coming off 60 degreetemperatures heading into
twenty, thirty degreetemperatures. So still a lot of
weather, I think, to trade inthat wheat.
Todd Gleason (03:17):
Let's turn your attention to the balance sheet
adjustments. Jim McCormick, Iknow the one thing that we have
been talking about all week longis the 1,300,000 acres
adjustment for harvestedacreage. It was upped by that
much by USDA. That pushed totalproduction over 17,000,000,000
bushels for corn. How do youlook at that number and evaluate
(03:43):
it as it's related to marketingplans?
Jim McCormick (03:45):
Well, there's no doubt about it, Todd. You look
at that number, it definitelysurprised the market. You saw
also an upward revision inyield, slight adjustments to
last year's crop. The reality isyou're pushing your crop over
18,500,000,000 bushel supply. Iknow, Todd, there's some people
don't like the number.
Some people don't believe thenumber. I view the number as
(04:07):
kind of how you're going to haveto watch an official officiating
the NCAA football game Mondaynight. You may not like that
holding call, but if they makethe holding call, that's the
call you got to go with. This isa number we're working with
right now. And if the trade isunder their perception, we've
got a huge supply of cornunfortunately, an oversupply
(04:27):
compared to the current demand.
Export sales have beenphenomenal. Ethanol is there,
but unfortunately we've donesuch a good job producing this
crop. We are going to have aburden of supply. That feed
number, Todd's the number thatmakes me really, really worried.
I just think unfortunately thegovernment does what it does.
Big yield, big feed and residualnumber, but that number just
(04:48):
looks like it's a sore thumb tome and that feed residual is
overstated in that carry out,which is over 2,200,000,000. I
think it essentially createscloser to two five as we go
through the marketing year, andthat is gonna be a wet blanket
on any kind of rallies we try toattempt.
Todd Gleason (05:02):
Wow. That is a big number. I'll come back to you on
that in just a minute. I dowanna give Logan Kimmel a chance
to hear his reaction too tothose numbers and how you have
evaluated them over the ensuingthree to four days, from the
corn or the soybean side.
Logan Kimmel (05:20):
Yeah. No, Jim. Spot on there. Very good points.
Clearly the trade was thrown offguard on that.
And I think another, I guessconcern on top of those numbers
is just the amount of unpricedold crop corn on farm that
(05:40):
whether that be on basis, it'sgoing to get rolled or just
eventually sold over the courseof six months. I think that
might have more pressure on anysort of rally in the corn market
on old crop specifically. Youhad a market for four months
that maintained a range and heldon breaks due to the strong
(06:04):
demand. But I think what wefound out despite that, is just
the massive supply. My fearwould be that setting the tone
here for maybe the next two tothree months until we have
another catalyst or potentialcatalyst to reverse that trend.
(06:24):
You throw the spec funds, whowere fairly well on the
sidelines going into that, andmore likely than not taking a
short approach, here goingforward using that information.
As Jim said, the numbers arewhat they are and if you don't
agree with them, you do have tounderstand that I think that the
trade is going to use thosegoing forward.
Todd Gleason (06:45):
Mike Souslaw, if you could put two things into
context for me. Jim talked aboutthe feed residual number. It did
go up by a 100,000,000 bushels.That means consumption went up a
100,000,000 bushels. However,when you look at the season's
average cash price, USDA,despite this 2,200,000,000
bushel carryout, a 200,000,000extra bushel put into that
(07:11):
ending stocks from December toJanuary, raised the season's
average cash price by a dime to$4.10 from $4.
So that either says they believean awful lot of corn got sold at
a much higher price. Well and orthat an awful lot of feed, that
extra 100,000,000 bushels isactually going to create a lot
(07:34):
of demand, one of the two. AndI'm wondering how you can square
those things.
Mike Zuzolo (07:39):
Yeah. I can't square the feed. I think Jim,
you know, nailed that with theidea that the feed and residual
is a leftover number. Yeah. Theyput feed, but then there's the
residual, and it's the it'swhat's whatsoever leftover in
the bucket to make the carryovernumber.
I think there's a third optionhere, Todd, and that could be
that the exports are not goingto back down. And I think this
is where what Logan talked aboutand Jim talked about. I'm gonna
(08:02):
run right in between and try andand and find a hole here with
the idea that if those Illinoisand Iowa numbers are too high,
which I still think they arebecause of the fact that the
yield reductions were not enoughto explain a lot of the ground
pile losses, and Iowa's 97.4harvested to planted number is
(08:24):
way out of whack. Illinois' 98.2harvested to planted is way out
of whack, and Nebraska's 97.2harvested percentage to planted
is way out of whack. I thinkwe're going to find out
relatively quickly through thespreads and through the cash
price with Illinois being theepicenter whether USDA's number
(08:47):
is right or not.
And I I I find it veryinteresting that we saw
Thursday's export sales verystrong, but then we saw a lot of
purchases in beans and corn, andSaudi Arabia's out there for
over a half a million metrictons of wheat. Is that war fear?
Are they discounting the WASDEreport? I think we really gotta
keep our heads up right now.
Todd Gleason (09:08):
Do you think it will be a basis fix in this
case? I think that's what you'retelling me. Or will it be the
futures markets that manage toto suss out what this crop size
really is?
Mike Zuzolo (09:19):
My running assumption right now is that
after the commodity index buyingfrom the record high precious
metals prices, once that getsdone here in the first couple
weeks of January, the futuresmarket will be more of a fund
selling market mindset than thecash. And as you say, the basis
will be the keys to whether thatcrop is really out there in the
(09:43):
corn or not.
Todd Gleason (09:43):
Okay. So Jim McCormick, given that, and I
don't know whether that would beyour expectation for futures to,
I guess, drive sideways to lowermaybe. I don't know whether
that's what Mike if you cancorrect me if I'm wrong on that.
And then the basis would have todo the work, but it's still
gonna have to do the work at alower level. Is that right?
Jim McCormick (10:04):
Well, I think it's gonna be a bit challenging,
Todd. You know, The next ninetydays is going to get really
interesting. The one tweet yousaw a lot on Monday was the
bridge payment loan was justwiped out in one minute of the
trade of the market going downon Monday. Now it's going to be
(10:24):
a situation with where we'resitting at March corn at $4.2
East corn trading here at $4.5but that 4.2 corn, I think Logan
put it out, 65% of this cornsitting on farm, how much of it
is unpriced? Our commercial guysare telling us somewhere around
50% to 55% of the corn marketsunpriced.
The real question I think in thenext ninety days is going to be
(10:47):
up to the banker. You got a lotof guys trying to finance the
2026 crop. We've got a balancesheet that got really ugly
really quick despite how strongas Mike pointed out the export
pace has been. So the question Ithink in the cash market is
going to be, is the banker goingto force the producer to sell
(11:07):
more aggressively the nextninety days of the crop that's
in the bin because he doesn'twant to finance the 26 crop when
he's got half of last year'scrop on price. I can say that
it's just too much risk with thebalance sheet.
If they're forcing that farmerto sell the grain to generate
revenue, the basis isn't goingto have to do any lifting, it's
going to stay soft. If thefarmer can hold a lot tight and
(11:28):
the banker doesn't panic andthis cash market continues,
we'll have to see the basisimprove to keep that river
market flowing because theseexports have been phenomenal and
so far they remain very stronghere.
Todd Gleason (11:39):
Okay, so Logan, on the flip side of that,
agricultural economists prior tothe release of this USDA report
would say of the bridgepayments, do not use that to
make sure that you can hold onto the old crop corn, that it's
best to go ahead and make sales.I think, actually, most of our
(11:59):
analysts were in the same boatat that point. Should they, at
this point, use the bridgepayment in a different way? The
bank still knows it's gonnacome, but I guess depends on
when debts are due or when whenthey have to make a payment,
(12:20):
whether it's a land payment orsomething else, and, unless that
check comes faster than weexpect, I think by the February,
so it's a month and a half awaystill. It seems like it could be
a rough forty five days, Iguess.
Logan Kimmel (12:35):
Yeah. And I think, you brought that up. I believe
the last time I was on here, theannouncement had just came out
and we discussed that a littlein detail. And and I it's going
to be different from operationto operation, but generally
speaking, I think we're in anenvironment right now of, from a
marketing standpoint of you gotto live to see another day here,
(12:58):
whatever you got to do. It's notgood markets where a lot of
operations are in a tough spot,due to the high input cost and
low prices.
So I think, when we look at theamount of old crop on price,
payments coming in or not, youstill got to market what you
have left. And I think you cannow look at this old crop
(13:22):
situation here in the corn andlook for areas that if the
market were to rally to, mightbe areas that you want to let go
of some of that old crop tostart paying some bills. You've
got a zone that the markettraded for four months. I'm
guessing in this March corn areain 4.3 to $4.35 you're probably
(13:46):
going to hit some resistancethere. That might be areas for
producers to put together a planand lighten up on what they have
left here throughout the nextfew months.
But I agree the next ninety daysare going to be interesting just
with now the next big thingbeing any South America weather.
But ultimately planting andgrowing seasons here. How to
(14:07):
navigate that with what you haveleft, I think it's important to
sit down and put a plan togetherbecause we saw how quick these
markets can change here onMonday. And we're dealing with
such low prices year after yearhere now for a few years, it's
certainly something you want tobe on top of and have a plan in
place.
Todd Gleason (14:27):
So Mike, I think the producers, particularly with
corn, a twofold problem. Theyhave half of a crop left to
sell. They have a new crop incorn to market at some point,
and there's a lot of time left,but that crop just changed
dramatically in valuepotentially if particularly if
Jim McCormick is right, and wesee a 2,500,000,000 bushel
(14:51):
number for the old crop carryoutby the time we get to the fall.
How how do producers how are youtalking to producers about both
of those crop years and whatthey should really be thinking?
It's hard to sell two crops atone time, especially at a low
price.
Mike Zuzolo (15:08):
You're right. But I do think that there is a window
here with the corn and thebeans. We've just made the
highest level of new crop beanscompared to new crop corn since
early December on that bean cornratio. And I think if I were in
the shoes of the farmer rightnow, which we all three, four
actually Utah because you havefarm ground, all four of us are
(15:32):
kind of in those shoes. I wouldgo to the banker and the
financial lender and say, I'mready to lock in new crop beans
to help finance my 2026.
Give me more room to maneuver onmy old crop corn as a result of
that because I can lock in aprofit. And that's what was so
impressive on Thursday. What Imean by that is if you have any
(15:54):
old crop beans left and youknow, let's say USDA is right.
So you should have 70 bushelbeans and 220, 240 bushel corn
after the report. And so you'relooking at $700 plus of revenue
in old crop beans and nine fifth$909.50 in in old crop corn.
You're not that far away to goahead and let go of more beans
(16:14):
in the old crop. Let more beansgo away in the new crop. Why am
I saying that? Because the waythe USDA report was structured,
beans actually got the worstreport. We lost 60,000,000
bushels in exports, and wegained 3,000,000 metric tons in
Brazil crop.
And there's really no weather inBrazil right now to lean on,
whereas there is weather inArgentina and the corn crop to
(16:37):
lean on. So I really see theidea that what we're finishing
out this week with is beansleading the market higher with
the worst report of all, when itcomes to both The US and and
global ending stocks. So if theif the corn's gonna go lower, my
bet is it's gonna be because ofbeans. So get a get ahead of the
beans. Get get profitably soldin the new crop beans, and try
(16:59):
and buy some time in the corn.
Todd Gleason (17:01):
Tim McCormick, if, the news stories are correct,
most of what happened onThursday in the soybeans was
based on the Trumpadministration expectations to
set blending quotas for biofuelssometime by the March. And most,
I think, are thinking that theadministration would put in
(17:22):
volumes, that are close to the5,600,000,000 gallons, that they
have proposed, maybe as low as5.2, but at least in a range
that would be supportive ofsoybeans. Is this where
producers should should actuallysay, look. I've I've got beans
(17:45):
as Mike has said that I I canmake it through, the spring at
least by by making some sales,forward sales that is, and get
myself in a position where I'mnot completely leveraged by the
time I get to the fall.
Jim McCormick (18:03):
I agree with Mike. I mean, the beans rallied
today on the on the you know,the charts look a bit better on
the beans. He's right, it was avery bearish report, bean oil is
leading us up. It was a veryimpressive day on the bean,
although it is interesting Todd,how the market reacts. The
number pretty much came out atthe high end of what the
government already said they'reproposed and they acted like it
was something above and beyond,but you got the positive news.
(18:25):
And I agree with Mike. I mean,I've been telling our clients,
look, it's been a very ugly weekon Monday, but you still got the
Argentina weather to go. Youstill have the Brazilian
safrinha crop to go. You stillhave our crop to go. The world
corn supply Todd is at ten yearlows.
So I mean a 100% agree withMike. If I got to try to calm my
(18:46):
banker down, calm my fiscalnerves down, I move the beans
because you got a wall of beanscoming from Brazil. And our guys
tell us they've bought China'sbought about 12,000,000 metric
tons of beans. I would argue thebuys Todd were all political
buys. It wasn't an economic buy.
Brazil will sell the beanscheaper to the Chinese so they
may be done, but that corn storycould change if any one of these
(19:09):
countries, any one of us,Brazil, Argentina have a problem
with that tight world supply ofcorn. And you already seen an
incredibly strong export number.That number keeps up. You
hopefully will at least get arally to get corn back to the
high end of the near term range.So I'd be moving the beans and
trying to hold on to the corn,but I'd be realistic if you can
get corn back up near 4.5 Spotcorn could not get over $4.5
(19:32):
since the June with what was aone five carryout.
You're now staring at two twocarryout in the face that could
grow even more by late summerpotentially. You gotta respect
that, but I think like Logansaid, $4.35, four forty five to
$4.50, you wanna sell it andthen maybe use options if you
wanna play the what if we turnhot and dry this summer.
Todd Gleason (19:53):
And Logan, how are you thinking about marketing of
old and new crop soybeans still?
Logan Kimmel (19:57):
Well, I think just to kind of explain to reiterate,
on this new crop, it's stillearly in the ballgame. I know we
talked about how bad things lookhere after this report and the
concern on old crop. But I thinkon the new crop, have to be
optimistic if the market ispresenting opportunities. And I
(20:17):
agree 100% in the beans. Maybeimplement that in your marketing
strategy and give this old cropsome new more time.
Because I think if you seepositive headlines come out from
here today, you start getting alittle more chart support on
this November contract new cropbeans. And we start visiting
(20:40):
some prices, maybe we saw therethroughout December on the way
down. I think that would be aprudent thing to accomplish in
your marketing is having a planand use strength in a market
that you can go out and sellforward to get sales in the
books and a stake in the ground.That would go for new crop corn
as well. We've got a lot oftime, if we have some weather,
(21:03):
this spring or summer, you mighthave more opportunities down the
line, given how strong ourdemand is.
It's just right now getting fromA to B from now until planting.
You got to look foropportunities that you can take
advantage of and give yourself alittle more time. If you want to
implement options after a sale,you most certainly can do that.
(21:26):
There's tools to do that. But Ithink having a plan this time of
the year is a good marketingmove.
Todd Gleason (21:32):
Hey Mike, one of the things that came out earlier
in the week that I have not seenfollow-up on was related to Iran
and the President of The UnitedStates saying that any nation
trading with Iran would have a25% export or tariff, put on the
(21:52):
exports coming into The UnitedStates. I'm wondering how the
Chinese might view that overtime, and if it would be imposed
upon that nation. I'm guessingthat both Russia and China are
the targets of the 25% tariff.
Mike Zuzolo (22:11):
Yeah. I I think that was a big deal. And the
market saw that. I don't likeyou said, I don't think they
really followed up with itbecause of the drinking news
through a fire hose, but it wasvery quick to be seen in the
bean market as potentiallypriced bearish and negative
because of China's reaction.China was all over the Asian
press, saying that The US was,doing wrong by doing this and
(22:34):
and and instilling their, youknow, their weight behind things
inappropriately.
At the same time, we saw thecattle market really get excited
with the idea that Brazil wouldbe in the same camp as China and
be hit, and therefore, beefcouldn't get in here to this
country as cheap. So I I tellyou, Todd, in 2026 for me, I
(22:56):
just have to because of what wetalked about a minute ago with
the financial side of theequation. I just have to build
into my risk plan that Chinawill continue to disappoint us
on ag trade because we seegeopolitically, president Trump
economically and foreign policywise continue to take pages out
of Ronald Reagan's playbook, theLatin American blockade. Reagan
(23:19):
did that in '86. By '80 by '89,Noriega was gone out of Panama.
This is going back towards thehigher inflationary time periods
of the seventies, eighties, andearly nineties. So negative
China, positive inflation iskinda my general mindset.
Todd Gleason (23:37):
How do you, put that into context with China as
it's related to next fallsexports to China? Are they at
zero, at half where they arelike this year, or will they
make the 25,000,000 metric tons?
Mike Zuzolo (23:57):
I I don't I'm not forecasting 25. I think they
themselves on total are stilldown below 100. I would be
surprised if we could break 20in the in our marketing year for
China. I think it goes back tothe wheat and the crude oil
historically are the bestinflation plays after precious
metals. And look what they'vedone this week.
(24:18):
They've ripped the doors off thebull rocket at this point, and,
you know, you're looking closeto a $100 silver now.
Todd Gleason (24:24):
In our marketing year, you mean the current
marketing year at 20, so 12 plusanother eight by the time we get
to the end of the marketingyear, or you're looking at 20
for the following market?
Mike Zuzolo (24:32):
Thanks for correcting me. I would say 20 in
addition to eight. And and,yeah, in addition to eight. So
I'm I'm saying four from thepast marketing year and then
maybe another 2022, somethinglike that.
Todd Gleason (24:46):
Okay. Alright. So, what else do we need to take up,
Jim McCormick? What's what'skinda been on your mind? What a
producer's been asking you?
What are they really worriedabout?
Jim McCormick (24:57):
Well, right now, I mean, what they're really
worried about is how they'regonna make money. I mean,
honestly, it's a hard, we're ina hard situation right now where
we're at. I've been tellingconstant clients, it's mid
January. There's a lot of waterto get under the bridge. The
(25:20):
China deal, it could change inour heartbeat.
I'm very skeptical about the20,000,025 million dollars
whatever it was for the nextthree years, Todd. My guess is
we're gonna have to read it'llbe part of a renegotiation when
it's all said and done. I mean,look what's going on with
Venezuela. Venezuela was sellingChina a lot of crude oil. Trump
essentially told Venezuela youcan't sell it.
(25:41):
How does China handle thatpotentially? I I just think in
general, this is all gonna getrenegotiated, but that's gonna
add to the volatility. I dothink you're gonna have
opportunities, and I've justtried to counsel farmers to not
panic on report days. You gottalet the dust clear and kind of
see where it's at. We are verydry here in the Eastern Part of
(26:02):
the Midwest.
We'll see what happens, how thisall plays out. And the game plan
right now is to figure out thebest of your ability, what your
costs are, where you need tomarket grain. And that way you
have a decision to be made soyou can make the economic
decisions to pull the triggerand try to take some of the
emotion out of it because it'sgoing to be a very emotional
(26:24):
year because you're going tofeel the pressure if I don't
sell it right, we end up with atrend line yield. History says
prices are going to go a lotlower, but you also, know
someone's going to screamdrought in the Eastern Corn
Belt, especially as dry as weare in the parts of Illinois and
Indiana. And especially ourproducer where your listeners
are here in Illinois, it's goingbe very hard to sell it if it's
(26:47):
very warm and dry in Champaignper se.
So I look for a lot ofvolatility this year, but the
game plan now is to try to comeup a game, you know, an idea of
where you want to market grainso you can execute it if that
opportunity presents itself.
Todd Gleason (27:00):
Logan Kimmel, look forward to the prospective
plantings report that would besurvey numbers coming from the
USDA, but even before that, theannual USDA event that'll take
place in February, they'll dropsome numbers in, kind of our
first chance to see what theyreally have in mind. I well,
maybe the second because theywould have put them out in
(27:20):
November or early December aswell. I don't recall whether
they did that or not foracreage. What do you think, the
spread might be for corn versussoybean acres?
Jim McCormick (27:30):
Oh, it's a tough call.
Logan Kimmel (27:32):
I mean, I think, you guys wanna spend the money
and plant corn versus beans.Taking a look at these new crop
prices, I'm probably guessingstill there's more corn. You
know, that can change with thesenew crop prices having changed
quite a bit since Monday. That'skind of our thoughts leaning
(27:54):
towards more corn.
Todd Gleason (27:56):
Yeah, so still in that probably 94, 95,000,000
acres. Suppose, I don't know,Mike Zuzlow, these would be
numbers you would look at too.
Mike Zuzolo (28:05):
Yeah. I mean, I do think that in your part of the
country, you probably see morecorn. But I do think we need to
remember back in '17 18 beanacres were 89, 90,000,000 acres.
And the bigger those corn acresgot these last few months, the
more potential bean acres alongwith the problems in cotton
(28:27):
country and LDP in cottoncountry this year. This is not
boding well for small beanacres.
And so that's another piece ofthe puzzle, I think, that you
you diversify into not holdingboth crops because it does look
like there it could be a race tothe bottom as far as if you're
fiscally strapped soybeans lookreally good. And a lot of
(28:48):
producers the last two years ina row have been pretty happy
with their bean yields, comparedto their corn from generally
speaking, from what I've heard.
Todd Gleason (28:56):
Let's get a final comment from each of you now.
Jim McCormick from agmarket.net.We'll start with you today.
Jim McCormick (29:03):
Well, definitely was a tough, report we had
earlier in the week. The beanmarket seems to maybe pull a bit
of a double bottom in. We've gotsome positive news from the
government potentially onrenewables. I don't panic
producers out there, but beready to sell this rally at
least near term is myrecommendation.
Todd Gleason (29:20):
Logan Kimmel from roachag.com.
Logan Kimmel (29:23):
Grain producers, keep your head up. Livestock
producers, specifically hogs,we've seen a massive rally here
in these summer months North of107 on June and July. Got an
opportunity to lock in somecheap feed. Maybe take a look,
you see these summer hog marketsmove North Of 110, layering the
floor. We've seen what couldhappen in the grain markets.
(29:45):
You've caught up to the cattlenow. And if you've hogs coming
off here this summer, keep aneye on some, June and July
contracts.
Todd Gleason (29:51):
And finally, Mike Zuzlow, globalcomresearch.com.
Mike Zuzolo (29:55):
Yeah. I like what Logan just said. I just hit the
95 mark on April hogs. That's,our hedge target to get
something done, Todd. Also, asyou talked about in the cattle,
USDA did raise production forred meat by about 1.4% for 2026
commercial red meat productionin the report.
So they're seeing biggerproduction, not less production.
(30:15):
So big heads up there for qthree and q four.
Todd Gleason (30:19):
Commodity week, of course, is a production of
Illinois. Public media, it ispublic radio for the farming
world online on demand atwillag.org. Our thanks go to our
panelists. They include JimMcCormick, Mike Suzulow, and
Logan Kimmel. You have a greatweek.
I'm University of IllinoisExtension's, Todd Gleeson.
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