July 25, 2025 • 29 mins
Panelists
- Joe Janzen, University of Illinois
- Curt Kimmel, AgMarket.net
- Greg Johnson, TotalGrainMarketing.com
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Todd Gleason (00:00):
This is the July 25 edition of Commodity Week.
announce (00:07):
Todd Gleason's services are made available to
WILL by University of Illinois
Todd Gleason (00:13):
Welcome to Commodity Week. I am Todd
Gleason. Our panelists for theday include Joe Jansen,
agricultural economist here onthe Urbana Champaign campus of
the U of I'm along with KirkKimmel from agmarket.net and
Greg Johnson from TGM. Commodityweek of course it's a production
of Illinois public medium. It ispublic radio for the farming
(00:34):
world online on demand atwillag.org.
We'll start with a conversationI had with Joe Jansen about the
article he wrote for the FarmDoc Daily website you can also
find it on our website. Thetitle is The Corn Market Works
to Explain Itself. In it, Joe,you work through ending stocks
(00:56):
and the stocks to use ratios. Tobegin with, can you define both
those sets of terms for me,please?
Joe Janzen (01:03):
Absolutely. Yeah. The ending stocks to use and the
stocks to use ratio are reallyjust kind of ways that we try
and summarize everything we knowabout the state of supply and
demand in a particular commoditymarket. So for corn right now,
we wanna get a sense of, like,is is available supply tight?
Does the market need higherprices to kind of ration that
supply out?
And the way that we the bestindicator that we have, if we
(01:26):
don't want to put try and putone number on it, is that ending
stocks to use ratio. And there'sbeen kind of a little bit of
confusion because that endingstocks to use ratio for the the
2425 marketing year, the onethat we're just about to the end
of now, has decreasedsubstantially since the start of
the '24 crop. So we used tothink that the '24 crop was
(01:47):
really going to fill up thebalance sheet, really, you know,
abundant supplies. We neededreally low prices. That has sort
of changed because last year'scrop wasn't quite as big as we
thought and because, you know,corn usage has been especially
strong this year, particularlyin the export market.
But we're still kind of stuckwith a corn price now and a new
(02:07):
crop corn price on the boardabout, you know, in the range of
$4.10 to $4.30 a bushel.
Todd Gleason (02:12):
Why is it that you suppose that the market never
has gotten to a place during thecurrent crop marketing year that
it need to push prices into that$5 range given what the current
ending stocks are?
Joe Janzen (02:29):
Yeah. I think this part of it has to do with, you
know, we thought there was, youknow, abundant supply. And so if
you you you think there's, youknow, plenty of corn around, you
don't go out paying aparticularly high price. And
then the other part is we'vealways kind of expected that
even if we didn't have a lot ofcorn right at this very minute,
we would have more in thefuture. And that's certainly our
(02:52):
expectation for this coming 2025crop in The United States.
And really for the the corn cropthat they harvested in Brazil in
the last few months. So both ofthose things have kind of said,
hey. You know, in the world, atleast, there is you know,
there's going to be enough corn.We don't really need high prices
to to ration currently availablesupply.
Todd Gleason (03:14):
So the current ending stocks to use ratio is
8.7. Anything below 10% isconsidered to start to get to
that point where it might needto be rationed. 8.7, I think, by
your numbers, it actuallyshould. But the marketplace is
looking forward to what in thecoming marketing year that
(03:36):
causes this not to be the case.
Joe Janzen (03:38):
I think that's right. And I think the other
part is sort of we're kind of ata unique time in the corn
calendar where the ending inUSDA data, most of the time, is
like a really good and reliableindicator. But there's some
times where some things aren'ttotally built into the numbers
that USDA is putting out. And Ithink the big one right now is
(03:58):
obviously the corn yield figurefor The United States. USDA has
produced a trend line yieldestimate that's a 181 bushels
per acre as a national averageyield.
I think almost everyone in themarketplace would expect that as
of right now, based on what weknow about the twenty twenty
five US corn crop, that numberis going to have to go up. But
(04:19):
USDA typically doesn't adjustthat number until its August
crop report. And so we're kindof in a situation where the
market maybe knows a little bitmore than those USDA numbers and
is building in the expectationof a bigger corn crop.
Todd Gleason (04:36):
On that note, it it would be why the price of
futures may not move as much asthe old crop cash basis, which
would be searching out for corndepending on where you are.
Joe Janzen (04:48):
That's absolutely right. We're in a situation when
we get down to the end of themarketing year, things can get
kind of highly variable becausejust because of, you know,
there's this very, like,temporary short term imbalance
between maybe supply and demandin particular locations and at
specific moments in time.
Todd Gleason (05:03):
Is there a relationship between corn ending
stocks and price over time?Season's average cash price.
Joe Janzen (05:11):
Yeah. Whether you whatever indicator of price you
use, we think there is areasonably strong correlation
between ending stocks to use,that is that summary measure of
available supply, and andprices. And you are not going to
get a high stocks to use ratioand high prices. And you are not
going to get a very low stocksto use ratio at very low prices.
(05:34):
But we can get we're kind of inthis in between point where
we're kind of, you know, pricesthat are, you know, a price with
a four on it.
You know, if we look at sort ofthe last twenty years of corn
pricing, a season average cashprice of above $4 is reasonably
high. I mean, it's not sort ofyou know, we've certainly seen
years where that at that averageprice was in the threes. But
(05:56):
we're kind of at, you know,relatively tight stocks for a $4
corn price. And I think, again,this is all a story of
expectations. And we expect thatthere will be corn coming to
market by the time we get toharvest.
And that's going to change thesupply and demand picture
substantially.
Todd Gleason (06:13):
This timeframe is not the only outlying year with
this kind of indication whereyou have a shorter crop coming
into what is expected to be avery large crop.
Joe Janzen (06:22):
Yeah, I think if you go back to 2013, 2014, or coming
out of the 2012 drought, thatwas a period where, you know,
corn supplies weren't, you know,sort of totally abundant yet.
The balance sheet hadn't beentotally filled up, and that
stocks to use ratio wasn'tnecessarily particularly high.
But everyone expected thatbigger crops would be coming in
(06:42):
the future. Available supplywould would sort of get built be
built back up. We're in a stockbuilding period, and and that is
what happened back then.
Todd Gleason (06:51):
What happens if you plug in the biggest numbers
that you can capture from thecommercial side that I think is
a stone x figure well over about187 for average yield around the
nation?
Joe Janzen (07:06):
Yeah, they came out with this number, I guess this
is now, you know, about ten daysago of 187 national average
yield. You put that into thebalance sheet, that really sort
of fills things back up veryquickly. So you put that you put
that into the balance sheet, youget to a 14% stocks to use
ratio. And all of a sudden, youknow, a $4 corn price looks
(07:28):
reasonably good when we havethat level of available supply.
In part, that's that's in partbecause, you know, the big
yields are are filling things upin part because we have a lot of
corn acres planted, or we wethink we have a lot of corn
acres planted.
My, you know, anecdotal tour ofof the The US Midwest this
summer suggests that that's thecase. And those corn crops look
(07:51):
pretty good. So you do that, youfill the balance sheet up pretty
quick.
Todd Gleason (07:55):
You are in Nebraska today. Where have you
traveled in the last week?
Joe Janzen (07:59):
Last few weeks, I mean, we we've been up to Canada
and back down to Nebraska. Sowe've kind of seen the the outer
the outer northern edge of ofthe Corn Belt, Wisconsin,
Minnesota, North Dakota, SouthDakota. And, you know, this is
not the Pro Farmer crop tour.It's like the Me and My Kids
crop tour. But that crop tourdidn't find a lot of bad
(08:20):
cornfields.
And so, you know, I don't Icertainly believe that, you
know, a number a a nationalaverage yield number above one
eighty one is is totallyreasonable at this point in time
given what we know about thesize of the crop.
Todd Gleason (08:33):
Given that you believe that the trade has built
this into the marketplace, whatdoes that mean for the USDA crop
production report in the monthof August, the first one?
Joe Janzen (08:41):
It'll it will be very interesting to see. I mean,
I think if they come out with ayield number in the, you know,
one eighty three, one eightyfour, one eighty five, I think
the market will shrug at anumber like that. I mean, if it
was a number that's bigger thanthat, that could, you know, lead
to that could be pretty bearishfor for the corn market. But I
think the market is pricing insomething in that range already.
Todd Gleason (09:05):
For those who have followed you and understood from
other articles you've writtenand posted to the PharmDoc Daily
website that the April, May,June, July timeframe are usually
the best marketing timeframesfor both corn and soybeans in
any given year prior to theharvest of the crop. And they're
(09:27):
well behind, maybe have notmarketed anything at this point.
Is there any advice as it'srelated to what can be done
going forward?
Joe Janzen (09:36):
Yeah. I think think you have to think seriously
about spreading pricing, youknow, that timing risk across
time. And so you it historicallyis I mean, there are years where
this is not the case. Buthistorically, it pays to have
some portion of that of thatcrop marketed prior to harvest.
(09:59):
Now, that's not the onlystrategy.
And one could think about, youknow, pricing strategies for
post harvest grain marketing.But that's, you know,
potentially entails a risk and acost of holding that grain.
That's the nice thing about preharvest marketing is you kind of
eliminate some of those storagecosts, and you spread that
(10:19):
timing risk out over time. So,you know, we encourage farmers
to think about, you know, whatis going to get you to sell? If
we see some rallies based onweather news in the next few
weeks, and that's, you know,certainly something that happens
at this time of year as themarket's watching watching the
weather very closely, takeadvantage of of those kinds of
(10:40):
pricing opportunities to to,again, not necessarily hit that
home run, but to spread pricerisk out across time.
Todd Gleason (10:46):
Lower your expectations and have a quick
trigger finger?
Joe Janzen (10:51):
You know, I I I hesitate to say have a quick
trigger finger. I mean, I thinkhave a plan that commits you to
to action, you know, a specificplan that has realistic goals.
Todd Gleason (11:02):
Joe Jansen is with the University of Illinois, an
agricultural economist, a memberof the PharmDoc team. We closed
out our conversation by talkingabout cash basis and the need
for it to do, quote, the heavylifting into the end of this
year. When I spoke with bothGreg Johnson and Kurt Kimmel, we
(11:23):
took up this topic. I asked Gregfrom the Andersons if we'd
arrived at the time of the yearwhere cash basis really had to
react in order to finishbringing old crop out of the
farmers' hands despite futuresbeing lower.
Greg Johnson (11:40):
Yes, we have. It's extremely localized. We've seen
some markets drop their basisanticipating getting having
enough going into fall harvest.We've seen other markets really
pushing the bid for corn. So,for example, here in Central
Illinois, corn basis is gettingbetter.
But some rail lines, CSX, forexample, the NS market, those
(12:07):
markets have weakened a littlebit. But the CN market, the
export market is very strong. Sothat's to be expected with a 1.3
carryout. That's extremelytight, but it's not tight
everywhere. It's tight in somesome areas, some zones, and it's
not so tight in other zones.
So, yes, we have seen basisimprove in our area, but not
(12:28):
that's not everywhere.
Todd Gleason (12:29):
How do you see basis and futures working in
tandem to price cash corn overthe next couple of months?
Greg Johnson (12:36):
Yeah, I I think corn there there's a chance for
a quick shipment bid and firstif you have corn ready for first
half September. So you may notwant to lock the basis in on
that part of your production ifthat has to come to town. But if
you have corn that has to cometo town and it won't be ready
till later in September orOctober, it sure feels like
we're going to fill up andthere'll be piles of corn on the
(12:58):
ground. And so basis levelsprobably will get weaker as we
get into the gut slot ofharvest. As far as soybeans are
concerned, we certainly hopeChina will show up and buy U.
S. Beans at some point in timebecause the last time that they
did not buy beans in the fall,we saw basis levels get
extremely weak. So I think as adefensive measure, it wouldn't
(13:20):
hurt producers to lock in beanbasis now and for corn basis to
get that locked in for what'sgoing to come in later in the
harvest. But for what comes inearly in the harvest, maybe hold
off on that and see if we canget some quick shipment
premiums.
Todd Gleason (13:32):
Kurt Kimmel following up on this note. How
are you advising producers andwhat is JSA saying about this
marketplace?
Curt Kimmel (13:40):
Yeah they say take advantage of it because
basically it's kind of a gift inthrough here. Several things to
look at, one is Texas isharvesting, the Delta's starting
to harvest so we're gonna startto see some harvest activity in
the South to pick up here tokind of ease that. So yeah,
we're all in on capturing that.They kind of feel basis risk is
(14:04):
quite large here as we gothrough the fall, the fact that
producers just aren't sold up.So this is an excellent
opportunity to clean up some oldcrop if you still have some to
move and depending on where youare in new crop.
Greg Johnson (14:15):
Remember that Southern Illinois, Southern
Indiana, Southern Ohio, whichtypically supplies that feeder
market in the SoutheasternUnited States, was extremely wet
in the spring and extremelydelayed. So that's where we
think the shortage may come inor short delay. And so that's
where we may be able to takeadvantage of a quick shipment
(14:35):
premium. Kurt's right. There'sother areas, Texas and the Far
South that we'll be harvestingsoon if they haven't started
already.
But that feeder market in theCarolinas and Georgia, that's
typically supplied by SouthernIllinois, Indiana, Ohio,
Kentucky, Tennessee. All thoseareas were extremely wet this
(14:56):
spring, and so it may be alittle late before they can get
corn down into the Southeast.
Todd Gleason (15:01):
This will provide producers in the southern third
of the state of Illinois andparts of Indiana, Missouri some
opportunities. But you if youlive further to the North, what
are you thinking?
Greg Johnson (15:11):
Yep. The base is is probably gonna be stronger in
the South and the East, andit'll work its way north. So the
the guys in Northern Illinois,Iowa, they may not be able to
take advantage of it near asmuch. It might have a little bit
of a supportive effect. Youknow, they might get a 5 or a
10¢ bump in the basis.
But the farther south you are, Ithink the better your chances
are of getting better basislevels.
Todd Gleason (15:31):
Friday afternoon, USDA will release a couple of
important cattle reports. Tothis point, the herd size has
continued to drop. What are yourexpectations, and will demand
remain strong for feed usage ofcorn by the beef cattle
industry?
Curt Kimmel (15:50):
Well, feed demand's debatable. Feed demand's
actually a miscellaneouscategory. You got taught true
feed demand. And yes, with lowercattle numbers, that's an issue,
but they are feeding to heavierweights. So I think the feed
demand in general is going toremain fairly strong.
(16:10):
The thing is on feed demand,heifer retention is just not
there. Why feed out somethingwhen you can get a ton of money
for it and why risk somethingdying on you? So heifer
retention is just not there.This cattle and feed report here
on Friday is actually gonnaprobably come in 98% at the top
end, 96 on the marketing. Sowe'll see how that unfolds.
(16:34):
As far as feed demand goes, themain item this week on feed
demand is China's hog herd. Porksupply is relatively high. They
wanna probably take steps tocurb some sows, bring down some
production to prop up prices sothere's profitability for their
producers. So what does that dowith soybeans coming in to be in
(16:56):
crushed future demand and feeddemand in China is a question.
Todd Gleason (17:00):
Let's stay with the beef cattle for just a
moment. If they're being fed toheavier weights it will take
more corn for each pound that isput on than the previous pound.
I would think that that would begood for demand going forward.
Greg Johnson (17:13):
I do personally. I you know, you hear analysts say
cattle are too high priced andwe're due for a break and we
probably are due for a break.But as long as produce, as long
as consumers are willing to pay,you know, dollars 6 a pound for
hamburger and $15 a pound forsteak, the demand is still going
to be there. You know, thecattle and feed number is
(17:34):
probably going to be low, likeCurt said, 98%, 99%. So we're
already at seventy two year lowsand that doesn't look like we're
going to rebound anytime soon asfar as the numbers are
concerned.
But as Kurt said, we're feedingthem to heavier weights. So
there's still more feed. That'sa little bit more feed. But
overall, far as from a cornpoint of view, we're not
(17:55):
increasing the demand for corn.We're just trying to keep it
steady and not losing, you youwould think we'd be losing feed
demand based on the lower numberof cattle, but I think we're
kind of keeping it steady.
But that's the good news. Thebad news is we're not increasing
feed demand.
Todd Gleason (18:09):
What a producer is telling you and TGM about the
size of the crop in our part ofthe world and through the
southern part of the state ofIllinois, and maybe Kirk, you
can jump in with other places aswell.
Greg Johnson (18:21):
From basically Interstate 70 North, the crop is
in great shape. We haven't had alot of rain in certain areas,
but we've had just enough rainto get by. So even though there
may be some lawns that look alittle yellowish brownish, the
corn itself is still that deep,dark green color. So I would say
the potential is still there inthe northern two thirds of the
(18:43):
state of Illinois on into Iowa,Minnesota, Wisconsin. Now
southern third of Illinois, youget South of Interstate 70, it's
a different story.
They were planted late. They'vehad plenty of rain once, but you
can't get over the fact thatthey planted it a month late.
And so you cannot expect normalyields out of the southern third
of Illinois, I don't believe.But we can have certainly above
(19:04):
average yields in the northerntwo thirds of the state.
Curt Kimmel (19:07):
Well, it's a couple weeks ago we had about four
inches in town and a quarterinch to east of town. So, yeah,
hit and miss. But overall,there's been some general
coverage rain. Producers arequite well comfortable with the
crop prospects and the ants areup in the yield as a nation.
Mean how you average all thatall out we're not going to know
(19:29):
until next year.
Now with the rain the biggestthing producers are going
through when do I spray? How doI get the longevity of the
spray? There's differentfunguses showing up. So that's
kind of the main emphasis inhere to keep eye on things so we
don't lose thirty, forty, 50bushels to the acre on some
surprise.
Todd Gleason (19:47):
On that note, if you're watching for diseases
like tar spot or southern rust,which has made its way northward
into both Illinois and Indiana,Iowa as well. You can find out
more about the diseases, wherethey are, and what the
expectations for the disease todevelop in your field might be
(20:07):
at the cropprotectionnetwork.orgwebsite. That's all one word
cropprotectionnetwork.org. Thisis operated by the plant
pathologists across the landgrant university system along
with the weed scientist as well.Check it out today.
Under resources you can find amap with the counties and where
(20:29):
the diseases are. Under thetools you'll be able to find a
crop disease development tool.It's all at
cropprotectionnetwork.org. Nowlet's talk about diseases and
the impact that they might have,Greg, on the quality of a crop
coming to the elevator. How muchof a concern might this be for
(20:51):
you?
Greg Johnson (20:51):
Yeah, if it's an extremely hot and dry year, the
seeds tend to crack and then youget moisture in there and that's
where you get the diseasepressure. So far, haven't had
that this year. We've had amplerain. If we get too much rain,
we may see leaf diseases, asKurt was talking about, but that
(21:16):
usually doesn't impact thequality of the colonel as much
as what a hot and dry summerwould. So at this point, I think
we're gonna be in very goodshape, quality wise.
Todd Gleason (21:27):
Kurt Kimmel, now let's turn your attention to
international politics, thetrade deals that President Trump
is trying to negotiate withcountries across the planet.
There have been some announced,others not yet. What is it that
the trade is paying attentionto? It really at this point
(21:47):
doesn't appear to have reactedvery much to any of the
announced agreements.
Curt Kimmel (21:53):
Well that's a tough one. Everybody likes to talk
yield and production now. Nobodywants to talk touch demand just
the uncertainty on how thistariff issue is going to unfold.
But Greg, I think you hit thenail on the head here. China,
this bean demand going into thisfall, that is just huge and
that's the main concern.
What we're seeing though isAugust 1, China's going to be
(22:15):
extended till November 12. So Ithink it's gonna be keep putting
back, little by little here overtime. But we gotta see some new
crop purchases come on the booksbecause we're in a time window
frame here where the logisticwise, you gotta get those ships
lined up.
Greg Johnson (22:31):
There have been five trade deals announced. You
know, 19% tariffs withPhilippines, 19% with Indonesia,
15% Japan, 10% UK, 20% Vietnam.But there's the two biggest ones
are the EU and China, and thoseare going to take time. Those
are going to take weeks. Youknow, the EU will probably be
(22:53):
announced in August.
I hope the Chinese tradeagreement is announced in
August, but I could see that,you know, bleeding on out into
September and October. And likeI said, if we don't have an
agreement done by the time thesoybeans start rolling in,
that's really gonna affectsoybean basis. So, you know,
those two countries, the EU andthe, and the Chinese trade
(23:13):
agreement are are huge.
Todd Gleason (23:15):
Those trade agreements, of course, with
China and the European Union arebig and important. Japan too is
important primarily because theyare the number two importer of
US corn.
Greg Johnson (23:28):
They are. And the devil's in details. I mean,
there there's some talk that,you know, China wants, you know,
we want them to buy rice andcorn. China obviously produces a
lot of rice. They're trying toprotect their farmers.
So, you know, there's, you know,we want to see the details. Do
they really have to buy rice?They've agreed to buy X number
of billions of dollars of U. S.Agricultural products.
(23:49):
But does that include corn andrice or are those other
products? So we'll have to, youknow, kind of sift through the
details and see see if howfriendly, in fact, this deal is
for The United States.
Todd Gleason (24:01):
And we're still waiting on trade agreements with
Canada and Mexico. There is aUSMCA or The United States
Mexico Canada trade agreementthat's in place. The Trump
administration admittedly saysit wants to renegotiate it next
year, but the tariffs that arethere in place today really need
to be negotiated away in someform. What do we know as it's
(24:26):
related to those tariffs?
Curt Kimmel (24:28):
Yeah, they are our most logistically best trade
partners there is. And we reallybenefited this last year of
Mexico and corn particularly intheir drought situation. Now
they're receiving some relieffrom that. But two, there's I
don't know if it's true or not.There's social media saying that
Mexico and Brazil are startingto push the pencil on what they
can do to get around some ofthese tariffs with The US.
Todd Gleason (24:51):
On that note, logistically, Brazil to Mexico
is by ship, and from The UnitedStates to Mexico is mostly
simply a train across theborder.
Greg Johnson (25:03):
And one thing to keep in mind, the the tariffs
that, president Trump hasthreatened to put on Mexico and
Canada, those apply to a lot ofproducts, but not to corn and
soybeans. Anything that wascovered under the USMCA
agreement, does not get affectedby any new tariffs. So corn and
soybeans, for example, is notaffected. So I suppose we could
(25:25):
alienate these other countriesenough that, you know, they
might try to. But, you know, thebottom line is, corn and soybean
exports to Mexico, for example,should not be affected.
Todd Gleason (25:37):
Secretary Howard Lutnick last weekend on the
Sunday shows reminded theAmerican population that 75% of
the trade between The UnitedStates, Mexico, and Canada is
covered by the USMCA. Again,expectations is that that
agreement will be renegotiatednext year. But really that only
(25:58):
trade of about 25% is beingargued and tariffed and
negotiated at this time amongall three countries. Let's get a
final word from each of you now.We'll start with you, Kurt
Kimmel from agmarket.net.
Curt Kimmel (26:15):
Well, if we got the cattle herd at nineteen sixty
levels, shouldn't the methane inthe atmosphere be at nineteen
sixty levels? Just asking. Butanyway, I'm kind of excited
about the August crop report tokind of see what that says. But
more importantly, I always enjoychip marching across the fields
(26:35):
here, August 18 to the twenty,twenty second like that to
actually get a visual surveyfrom their crop participants.
Todd Gleason (26:43):
As usual, we will cover the Midwest crop tour in
detail throughout the week. Youcan listen for that on the daily
updates during the closingmarket report at 02:06 or on the
podcast. Search it out atClosing Market Report each and
every day of that week. GregJohnson from TGM, that's
totalgrainmarketing.com. What'syour final word for the day?
Greg Johnson (27:05):
Well, the good to excellent ratings that come out
every week from USDA, Someanalysts have extrapolated that
that it's so good that we couldhave 186 bushel national yield.
Now I don't know that anybodyreally thinks that but 183 is
probably what's being tradedright now. Last month the USDA
was 181. So my point is weprobably aren't going to see
(27:28):
this yield drop below 181anytime soon. So we probably
need to get it below 181 inorder to get some excitement in
the corn market.
Otherwise, we may drift lowerinto fall. And then for farmers
that have storage, you know,higher input costs will need
higher prices of corn next yearto encourage corn planting. But
(27:48):
for people that don't havestorage, take advantage of any
$10.15 cent rallies in corn,because if you don't, you're
gonna have to hold on to it anawful long time, and the storage
charges will probably eat up anygains that you see, post
harvest.
Todd Gleason (28:02):
You've been listening to Commodity Week from
Illinois Public Media. It ispublic radio for the farming
world. You may find and listento the whole of the program
anytime you'd like atwillag.org. That's willag.0rg.
Our thanks go to our paneliststhis week including Greg Johnson
from TGM totalgrainmarketing dotcom that's the elevator in the
(28:23):
system that belongs to FSGrowmark covering a good third
of the state of Illinoisincluding the elevator here in
Champaign County.
We were also joined by KurtKimmel from agmarket.net. He is
in Normal, Illinois and our showbegan with a conversation I held
with Joe Jansen, agriculturaleconomist at the University of
(28:47):
Illinois. You may find more fromhim on the article we discussed
on our website at willag.org.What is the corn market trying
to explain now? Look for thatarticle.
Oh there will be one otherarticle there as well that is
important. It's entitledEmpowering Illinois Soybean
(29:07):
Producers. There is a webinarnext week. If you sign up for it
today and you're one of thefirst 25 registrants, you will
have an opportunity for a $350honorarium. You can see that on
our website again.
Look for Empowering IllinoisSoybean Producers. This is
(29:28):
sponsored by the United SoybeanBoard. All the details online at
willag.0rg. You've beenlistening to Commodity Week on
University of IllinoisExtensions, Todd Gleeson.
This is the July 25 edition of Commodity Week.
announce (00:07):
Todd Gleason's services are made available to
WILL by University of Illinois
Todd Gleason (00:13):
Welcome to Commodity Week. I am Todd
Gleason. Our panelists for theday include Joe Jansen,
agricultural economist here onthe Urbana Champaign campus of
the U of I'm along with KirkKimmel from agmarket.net and
Greg Johnson from TGM. Commodityweek of course it's a production
of Illinois public medium. It ispublic radio for the farming
(00:34):
world online on demand atwillag.org.
We'll start with a conversationI had with Joe Jansen about the
article he wrote for the FarmDoc Daily website you can also
find it on our website. Thetitle is The Corn Market Works
to Explain Itself. In it, Joe,you work through ending stocks
(00:56):
and the stocks to use ratios. Tobegin with, can you define both
those sets of terms for me,please?
Joe Janzen (01:03):
Absolutely. Yeah. The ending stocks to use and the
stocks to use ratio are reallyjust kind of ways that we try
and summarize everything we knowabout the state of supply and
demand in a particular commoditymarket. So for corn right now,
we wanna get a sense of, like,is is available supply tight?
Does the market need higherprices to kind of ration that
supply out?
And the way that we the bestindicator that we have, if we
(01:26):
don't want to put try and putone number on it, is that ending
stocks to use ratio. And there'sbeen kind of a little bit of
confusion because that endingstocks to use ratio for the the
2425 marketing year, the onethat we're just about to the end
of now, has decreasedsubstantially since the start of
the '24 crop. So we used tothink that the '24 crop was
(01:47):
really going to fill up thebalance sheet, really, you know,
abundant supplies. We neededreally low prices. That has sort
of changed because last year'scrop wasn't quite as big as we
thought and because, you know,corn usage has been especially
strong this year, particularlyin the export market.
But we're still kind of stuckwith a corn price now and a new
(02:07):
crop corn price on the boardabout, you know, in the range of
$4.10 to $4.30 a bushel.
Todd Gleason (02:12):
Why is it that you suppose that the market never
has gotten to a place during thecurrent crop marketing year that
it need to push prices into that$5 range given what the current
ending stocks are?
Joe Janzen (02:29):
Yeah. I think this part of it has to do with, you
know, we thought there was, youknow, abundant supply. And so if
you you you think there's, youknow, plenty of corn around, you
don't go out paying aparticularly high price. And
then the other part is we'vealways kind of expected that
even if we didn't have a lot ofcorn right at this very minute,
we would have more in thefuture. And that's certainly our
(02:52):
expectation for this coming 2025crop in The United States.
And really for the the corn cropthat they harvested in Brazil in
the last few months. So both ofthose things have kind of said,
hey. You know, in the world, atleast, there is you know,
there's going to be enough corn.We don't really need high prices
to to ration currently availablesupply.
Todd Gleason (03:14):
So the current ending stocks to use ratio is
8.7. Anything below 10% isconsidered to start to get to
that point where it might needto be rationed. 8.7, I think, by
your numbers, it actuallyshould. But the marketplace is
looking forward to what in thecoming marketing year that
(03:36):
causes this not to be the case.
Joe Janzen (03:38):
I think that's right. And I think the other
part is sort of we're kind of ata unique time in the corn
calendar where the ending inUSDA data, most of the time, is
like a really good and reliableindicator. But there's some
times where some things aren'ttotally built into the numbers
that USDA is putting out. And Ithink the big one right now is
(03:58):
obviously the corn yield figurefor The United States. USDA has
produced a trend line yieldestimate that's a 181 bushels
per acre as a national averageyield.
I think almost everyone in themarketplace would expect that as
of right now, based on what weknow about the twenty twenty
five US corn crop, that numberis going to have to go up. But
(04:19):
USDA typically doesn't adjustthat number until its August
crop report. And so we're kindof in a situation where the
market maybe knows a little bitmore than those USDA numbers and
is building in the expectationof a bigger corn crop.
Todd Gleason (04:36):
On that note, it it would be why the price of
futures may not move as much asthe old crop cash basis, which
would be searching out for corndepending on where you are.
Joe Janzen (04:48):
That's absolutely right. We're in a situation when
we get down to the end of themarketing year, things can get
kind of highly variable becausejust because of, you know,
there's this very, like,temporary short term imbalance
between maybe supply and demandin particular locations and at
specific moments in time.
Todd Gleason (05:03):
Is there a relationship between corn ending
stocks and price over time?Season's average cash price.
Joe Janzen (05:11):
Yeah. Whether you whatever indicator of price you
use, we think there is areasonably strong correlation
between ending stocks to use,that is that summary measure of
available supply, and andprices. And you are not going to
get a high stocks to use ratioand high prices. And you are not
going to get a very low stocksto use ratio at very low prices.
(05:34):
But we can get we're kind of inthis in between point where
we're kind of, you know, pricesthat are, you know, a price with
a four on it.
You know, if we look at sort ofthe last twenty years of corn
pricing, a season average cashprice of above $4 is reasonably
high. I mean, it's not sort ofyou know, we've certainly seen
years where that at that averageprice was in the threes. But
(05:56):
we're kind of at, you know,relatively tight stocks for a $4
corn price. And I think, again,this is all a story of
expectations. And we expect thatthere will be corn coming to
market by the time we get toharvest.
And that's going to change thesupply and demand picture
substantially.
Todd Gleason (06:13):
This timeframe is not the only outlying year with
this kind of indication whereyou have a shorter crop coming
into what is expected to be avery large crop.
Joe Janzen (06:22):
Yeah, I think if you go back to 2013, 2014, or coming
out of the 2012 drought, thatwas a period where, you know,
corn supplies weren't, you know,sort of totally abundant yet.
The balance sheet hadn't beentotally filled up, and that
stocks to use ratio wasn'tnecessarily particularly high.
But everyone expected thatbigger crops would be coming in
(06:42):
the future. Available supplywould would sort of get built be
built back up. We're in a stockbuilding period, and and that is
what happened back then.
Todd Gleason (06:51):
What happens if you plug in the biggest numbers
that you can capture from thecommercial side that I think is
a stone x figure well over about187 for average yield around the
nation?
Joe Janzen (07:06):
Yeah, they came out with this number, I guess this
is now, you know, about ten daysago of 187 national average
yield. You put that into thebalance sheet, that really sort
of fills things back up veryquickly. So you put that you put
that into the balance sheet, youget to a 14% stocks to use
ratio. And all of a sudden, youknow, a $4 corn price looks
(07:28):
reasonably good when we havethat level of available supply.
In part, that's that's in partbecause, you know, the big
yields are are filling things upin part because we have a lot of
corn acres planted, or we wethink we have a lot of corn
acres planted.
My, you know, anecdotal tour ofof the The US Midwest this
summer suggests that that's thecase. And those corn crops look
(07:51):
pretty good. So you do that, youfill the balance sheet up pretty
quick.
Todd Gleason (07:55):
You are in Nebraska today. Where have you
traveled in the last week?
Joe Janzen (07:59):
Last few weeks, I mean, we we've been up to Canada
and back down to Nebraska. Sowe've kind of seen the the outer
the outer northern edge of ofthe Corn Belt, Wisconsin,
Minnesota, North Dakota, SouthDakota. And, you know, this is
not the Pro Farmer crop tour.It's like the Me and My Kids
crop tour. But that crop tourdidn't find a lot of bad
(08:20):
cornfields.
And so, you know, I don't Icertainly believe that, you
know, a number a a nationalaverage yield number above one
eighty one is is totallyreasonable at this point in time
given what we know about thesize of the crop.
Todd Gleason (08:33):
Given that you believe that the trade has built
this into the marketplace, whatdoes that mean for the USDA crop
production report in the monthof August, the first one?
Joe Janzen (08:41):
It'll it will be very interesting to see. I mean,
I think if they come out with ayield number in the, you know,
one eighty three, one eightyfour, one eighty five, I think
the market will shrug at anumber like that. I mean, if it
was a number that's bigger thanthat, that could, you know, lead
to that could be pretty bearishfor for the corn market. But I
think the market is pricing insomething in that range already.
Todd Gleason (09:05):
For those who have followed you and understood from
other articles you've writtenand posted to the PharmDoc Daily
website that the April, May,June, July timeframe are usually
the best marketing timeframesfor both corn and soybeans in
any given year prior to theharvest of the crop. And they're
(09:27):
well behind, maybe have notmarketed anything at this point.
Is there any advice as it'srelated to what can be done
going forward?
Joe Janzen (09:36):
Yeah. I think think you have to think seriously
about spreading pricing, youknow, that timing risk across
time. And so you it historicallyis I mean, there are years where
this is not the case. Buthistorically, it pays to have
some portion of that of thatcrop marketed prior to harvest.
(09:59):
Now, that's not the onlystrategy.
And one could think about, youknow, pricing strategies for
post harvest grain marketing.But that's, you know,
potentially entails a risk and acost of holding that grain.
That's the nice thing about preharvest marketing is you kind of
eliminate some of those storagecosts, and you spread that
(10:19):
timing risk out over time. So,you know, we encourage farmers
to think about, you know, whatis going to get you to sell? If
we see some rallies based onweather news in the next few
weeks, and that's, you know,certainly something that happens
at this time of year as themarket's watching watching the
weather very closely, takeadvantage of of those kinds of
(10:40):
pricing opportunities to to,again, not necessarily hit that
home run, but to spread pricerisk out across time.
Todd Gleason (10:46):
Lower your expectations and have a quick
trigger finger?
Joe Janzen (10:51):
You know, I I I hesitate to say have a quick
trigger finger. I mean, I thinkhave a plan that commits you to
to action, you know, a specificplan that has realistic goals.
Todd Gleason (11:02):
Joe Jansen is with the University of Illinois, an
agricultural economist, a memberof the PharmDoc team. We closed
out our conversation by talkingabout cash basis and the need
for it to do, quote, the heavylifting into the end of this
year. When I spoke with bothGreg Johnson and Kurt Kimmel, we
(11:23):
took up this topic. I asked Gregfrom the Andersons if we'd
arrived at the time of the yearwhere cash basis really had to
react in order to finishbringing old crop out of the
farmers' hands despite futuresbeing lower.
Greg Johnson (11:40):
Yes, we have. It's extremely localized. We've seen
some markets drop their basisanticipating getting having
enough going into fall harvest.We've seen other markets really
pushing the bid for corn. So,for example, here in Central
Illinois, corn basis is gettingbetter.
But some rail lines, CSX, forexample, the NS market, those
(12:07):
markets have weakened a littlebit. But the CN market, the
export market is very strong. Sothat's to be expected with a 1.3
carryout. That's extremelytight, but it's not tight
everywhere. It's tight in somesome areas, some zones, and it's
not so tight in other zones.
So, yes, we have seen basisimprove in our area, but not
(12:28):
that's not everywhere.
Todd Gleason (12:29):
How do you see basis and futures working in
tandem to price cash corn overthe next couple of months?
Greg Johnson (12:36):
Yeah, I I think corn there there's a chance for
a quick shipment bid and firstif you have corn ready for first
half September. So you may notwant to lock the basis in on
that part of your production ifthat has to come to town. But if
you have corn that has to cometo town and it won't be ready
till later in September orOctober, it sure feels like
we're going to fill up andthere'll be piles of corn on the
(12:58):
ground. And so basis levelsprobably will get weaker as we
get into the gut slot ofharvest. As far as soybeans are
concerned, we certainly hopeChina will show up and buy U.
S. Beans at some point in timebecause the last time that they
did not buy beans in the fall,we saw basis levels get
extremely weak. So I think as adefensive measure, it wouldn't
(13:20):
hurt producers to lock in beanbasis now and for corn basis to
get that locked in for what'sgoing to come in later in the
harvest. But for what comes inearly in the harvest, maybe hold
off on that and see if we canget some quick shipment
premiums.
Todd Gleason (13:32):
Kurt Kimmel following up on this note. How
are you advising producers andwhat is JSA saying about this
marketplace?
Curt Kimmel (13:40):
Yeah they say take advantage of it because
basically it's kind of a gift inthrough here. Several things to
look at, one is Texas isharvesting, the Delta's starting
to harvest so we're gonna startto see some harvest activity in
the South to pick up here tokind of ease that. So yeah,
we're all in on capturing that.They kind of feel basis risk is
(14:04):
quite large here as we gothrough the fall, the fact that
producers just aren't sold up.So this is an excellent
opportunity to clean up some oldcrop if you still have some to
move and depending on where youare in new crop.
Greg Johnson (14:15):
Remember that Southern Illinois, Southern
Indiana, Southern Ohio, whichtypically supplies that feeder
market in the SoutheasternUnited States, was extremely wet
in the spring and extremelydelayed. So that's where we
think the shortage may come inor short delay. And so that's
where we may be able to takeadvantage of a quick shipment
(14:35):
premium. Kurt's right. There'sother areas, Texas and the Far
South that we'll be harvestingsoon if they haven't started
already.
But that feeder market in theCarolinas and Georgia, that's
typically supplied by SouthernIllinois, Indiana, Ohio,
Kentucky, Tennessee. All thoseareas were extremely wet this
(14:56):
spring, and so it may be alittle late before they can get
corn down into the Southeast.
Todd Gleason (15:01):
This will provide producers in the southern third
of the state of Illinois andparts of Indiana, Missouri some
opportunities. But you if youlive further to the North, what
are you thinking?
Greg Johnson (15:11):
Yep. The base is is probably gonna be stronger in
the South and the East, andit'll work its way north. So the
the guys in Northern Illinois,Iowa, they may not be able to
take advantage of it near asmuch. It might have a little bit
of a supportive effect. Youknow, they might get a 5 or a
10¢ bump in the basis.
But the farther south you are, Ithink the better your chances
are of getting better basislevels.
Todd Gleason (15:31):
Friday afternoon, USDA will release a couple of
important cattle reports. Tothis point, the herd size has
continued to drop. What are yourexpectations, and will demand
remain strong for feed usage ofcorn by the beef cattle
industry?
Curt Kimmel (15:50):
Well, feed demand's debatable. Feed demand's
actually a miscellaneouscategory. You got taught true
feed demand. And yes, with lowercattle numbers, that's an issue,
but they are feeding to heavierweights. So I think the feed
demand in general is going toremain fairly strong.
(16:10):
The thing is on feed demand,heifer retention is just not
there. Why feed out somethingwhen you can get a ton of money
for it and why risk somethingdying on you? So heifer
retention is just not there.This cattle and feed report here
on Friday is actually gonnaprobably come in 98% at the top
end, 96 on the marketing. Sowe'll see how that unfolds.
(16:34):
As far as feed demand goes, themain item this week on feed
demand is China's hog herd. Porksupply is relatively high. They
wanna probably take steps tocurb some sows, bring down some
production to prop up prices sothere's profitability for their
producers. So what does that dowith soybeans coming in to be in
(16:56):
crushed future demand and feeddemand in China is a question.
Todd Gleason (17:00):
Let's stay with the beef cattle for just a
moment. If they're being fed toheavier weights it will take
more corn for each pound that isput on than the previous pound.
I would think that that would begood for demand going forward.
Greg Johnson (17:13):
I do personally. I you know, you hear analysts say
cattle are too high priced andwe're due for a break and we
probably are due for a break.But as long as produce, as long
as consumers are willing to pay,you know, dollars 6 a pound for
hamburger and $15 a pound forsteak, the demand is still going
to be there. You know, thecattle and feed number is
(17:34):
probably going to be low, likeCurt said, 98%, 99%. So we're
already at seventy two year lowsand that doesn't look like we're
going to rebound anytime soon asfar as the numbers are
concerned.
But as Kurt said, we're feedingthem to heavier weights. So
there's still more feed. That'sa little bit more feed. But
overall, far as from a cornpoint of view, we're not
(17:55):
increasing the demand for corn.We're just trying to keep it
steady and not losing, you youwould think we'd be losing feed
demand based on the lower numberof cattle, but I think we're
kind of keeping it steady.
But that's the good news. Thebad news is we're not increasing
feed demand.
Todd Gleason (18:09):
What a producer is telling you and TGM about the
size of the crop in our part ofthe world and through the
southern part of the state ofIllinois, and maybe Kirk, you
can jump in with other places aswell.
Greg Johnson (18:21):
From basically Interstate 70 North, the crop is
in great shape. We haven't had alot of rain in certain areas,
but we've had just enough rainto get by. So even though there
may be some lawns that look alittle yellowish brownish, the
corn itself is still that deep,dark green color. So I would say
the potential is still there inthe northern two thirds of the
(18:43):
state of Illinois on into Iowa,Minnesota, Wisconsin. Now
southern third of Illinois, youget South of Interstate 70, it's
a different story.
They were planted late. They'vehad plenty of rain once, but you
can't get over the fact thatthey planted it a month late.
And so you cannot expect normalyields out of the southern third
of Illinois, I don't believe.But we can have certainly above
(19:04):
average yields in the northerntwo thirds of the state.
Curt Kimmel (19:07):
Well, it's a couple weeks ago we had about four
inches in town and a quarterinch to east of town. So, yeah,
hit and miss. But overall,there's been some general
coverage rain. Producers arequite well comfortable with the
crop prospects and the ants areup in the yield as a nation.
Mean how you average all thatall out we're not going to know
(19:29):
until next year.
Now with the rain the biggestthing producers are going
through when do I spray? How doI get the longevity of the
spray? There's differentfunguses showing up. So that's
kind of the main emphasis inhere to keep eye on things so we
don't lose thirty, forty, 50bushels to the acre on some
surprise.
Todd Gleason (19:47):
On that note, if you're watching for diseases
like tar spot or southern rust,which has made its way northward
into both Illinois and Indiana,Iowa as well. You can find out
more about the diseases, wherethey are, and what the
expectations for the disease todevelop in your field might be
(20:07):
at the cropprotectionnetwork.orgwebsite. That's all one word
cropprotectionnetwork.org. Thisis operated by the plant
pathologists across the landgrant university system along
with the weed scientist as well.Check it out today.
Under resources you can find amap with the counties and where
(20:29):
the diseases are. Under thetools you'll be able to find a
crop disease development tool.It's all at
cropprotectionnetwork.org. Nowlet's talk about diseases and
the impact that they might have,Greg, on the quality of a crop
coming to the elevator. How muchof a concern might this be for
(20:51):
you?
Greg Johnson (20:51):
Yeah, if it's an extremely hot and dry year, the
seeds tend to crack and then youget moisture in there and that's
where you get the diseasepressure. So far, haven't had
that this year. We've had amplerain. If we get too much rain,
we may see leaf diseases, asKurt was talking about, but that
(21:16):
usually doesn't impact thequality of the colonel as much
as what a hot and dry summerwould. So at this point, I think
we're gonna be in very goodshape, quality wise.
Todd Gleason (21:27):
Kurt Kimmel, now let's turn your attention to
international politics, thetrade deals that President Trump
is trying to negotiate withcountries across the planet.
There have been some announced,others not yet. What is it that
the trade is paying attentionto? It really at this point
(21:47):
doesn't appear to have reactedvery much to any of the
announced agreements.
Curt Kimmel (21:53):
Well that's a tough one. Everybody likes to talk
yield and production now. Nobodywants to talk touch demand just
the uncertainty on how thistariff issue is going to unfold.
But Greg, I think you hit thenail on the head here. China,
this bean demand going into thisfall, that is just huge and
that's the main concern.
What we're seeing though isAugust 1, China's going to be
(22:15):
extended till November 12. So Ithink it's gonna be keep putting
back, little by little here overtime. But we gotta see some new
crop purchases come on the booksbecause we're in a time window
frame here where the logisticwise, you gotta get those ships
lined up.
Greg Johnson (22:31):
There have been five trade deals announced. You
know, 19% tariffs withPhilippines, 19% with Indonesia,
15% Japan, 10% UK, 20% Vietnam.But there's the two biggest ones
are the EU and China, and thoseare going to take time. Those
are going to take weeks. Youknow, the EU will probably be
(22:53):
announced in August.
I hope the Chinese tradeagreement is announced in
August, but I could see that,you know, bleeding on out into
September and October. And likeI said, if we don't have an
agreement done by the time thesoybeans start rolling in,
that's really gonna affectsoybean basis. So, you know,
those two countries, the EU andthe, and the Chinese trade
(23:13):
agreement are are huge.
Todd Gleason (23:15):
Those trade agreements, of course, with
China and the European Union arebig and important. Japan too is
important primarily because theyare the number two importer of
US corn.
Greg Johnson (23:28):
They are. And the devil's in details. I mean,
there there's some talk that,you know, China wants, you know,
we want them to buy rice andcorn. China obviously produces a
lot of rice. They're trying toprotect their farmers.
So, you know, there's, you know,we want to see the details. Do
they really have to buy rice?They've agreed to buy X number
of billions of dollars of U. S.Agricultural products.
(23:49):
But does that include corn andrice or are those other
products? So we'll have to, youknow, kind of sift through the
details and see see if howfriendly, in fact, this deal is
for The United States.
Todd Gleason (24:01):
And we're still waiting on trade agreements with
Canada and Mexico. There is aUSMCA or The United States
Mexico Canada trade agreementthat's in place. The Trump
administration admittedly saysit wants to renegotiate it next
year, but the tariffs that arethere in place today really need
to be negotiated away in someform. What do we know as it's
(24:26):
related to those tariffs?
Curt Kimmel (24:28):
Yeah, they are our most logistically best trade
partners there is. And we reallybenefited this last year of
Mexico and corn particularly intheir drought situation. Now
they're receiving some relieffrom that. But two, there's I
don't know if it's true or not.There's social media saying that
Mexico and Brazil are startingto push the pencil on what they
can do to get around some ofthese tariffs with The US.
Todd Gleason (24:51):
On that note, logistically, Brazil to Mexico
is by ship, and from The UnitedStates to Mexico is mostly
simply a train across theborder.
Greg Johnson (25:03):
And one thing to keep in mind, the the tariffs
that, president Trump hasthreatened to put on Mexico and
Canada, those apply to a lot ofproducts, but not to corn and
soybeans. Anything that wascovered under the USMCA
agreement, does not get affectedby any new tariffs. So corn and
soybeans, for example, is notaffected. So I suppose we could
(25:25):
alienate these other countriesenough that, you know, they
might try to. But, you know, thebottom line is, corn and soybean
exports to Mexico, for example,should not be affected.
Todd Gleason (25:37):
Secretary Howard Lutnick last weekend on the
Sunday shows reminded theAmerican population that 75% of
the trade between The UnitedStates, Mexico, and Canada is
covered by the USMCA. Again,expectations is that that
agreement will be renegotiatednext year. But really that only
(25:58):
trade of about 25% is beingargued and tariffed and
negotiated at this time amongall three countries. Let's get a
final word from each of you now.We'll start with you, Kurt
Kimmel from agmarket.net.
Curt Kimmel (26:15):
Well, if we got the cattle herd at nineteen sixty
levels, shouldn't the methane inthe atmosphere be at nineteen
sixty levels? Just asking. Butanyway, I'm kind of excited
about the August crop report tokind of see what that says. But
more importantly, I always enjoychip marching across the fields
(26:35):
here, August 18 to the twenty,twenty second like that to
actually get a visual surveyfrom their crop participants.
Todd Gleason (26:43):
As usual, we will cover the Midwest crop tour in
detail throughout the week. Youcan listen for that on the daily
updates during the closingmarket report at 02:06 or on the
podcast. Search it out atClosing Market Report each and
every day of that week. GregJohnson from TGM, that's
totalgrainmarketing.com. What'syour final word for the day?
Greg Johnson (27:05):
Well, the good to excellent ratings that come out
every week from USDA, Someanalysts have extrapolated that
that it's so good that we couldhave 186 bushel national yield.
Now I don't know that anybodyreally thinks that but 183 is
probably what's being tradedright now. Last month the USDA
was 181. So my point is weprobably aren't going to see
(27:28):
this yield drop below 181anytime soon. So we probably
need to get it below 181 inorder to get some excitement in
the corn market.
Otherwise, we may drift lowerinto fall. And then for farmers
that have storage, you know,higher input costs will need
higher prices of corn next yearto encourage corn planting. But
(27:48):
for people that don't havestorage, take advantage of any
$10.15 cent rallies in corn,because if you don't, you're
gonna have to hold on to it anawful long time, and the storage
charges will probably eat up anygains that you see, post
harvest.
Todd Gleason (28:02):
You've been listening to Commodity Week from
Illinois Public Media. It ispublic radio for the farming
world. You may find and listento the whole of the program
anytime you'd like atwillag.org. That's willag.0rg.
Our thanks go to our paneliststhis week including Greg Johnson
from TGM totalgrainmarketing dotcom that's the elevator in the
(28:23):
system that belongs to FSGrowmark covering a good third
of the state of Illinoisincluding the elevator here in
Champaign County.
We were also joined by KurtKimmel from agmarket.net. He is
in Normal, Illinois and our showbegan with a conversation I held
with Joe Jansen, agriculturaleconomist at the University of
(28:47):
Illinois. You may find more fromhim on the article we discussed
on our website at willag.org.What is the corn market trying
to explain now? Look for thatarticle.
Oh there will be one otherarticle there as well that is
important. It's entitledEmpowering Illinois Soybean
(29:07):
Producers. There is a webinarnext week. If you sign up for it
today and you're one of thefirst 25 registrants, you will
have an opportunity for a $350honorarium. You can see that on
our website again.
Look for Empowering IllinoisSoybean Producers. This is
(29:28):
sponsored by the United SoybeanBoard. All the details online at
willag.0rg. You've beenlistening to Commodity Week on
University of IllinoisExtensions, Todd Gleeson.
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