July 31, 2025 • 28 mins
Panelists
- Matt Bennett, AgMarket.net
- Ellen Dearden AgReview
- Logan Kimmel, RoachAg.com
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Todd Gleason (00:00):
This is the July 31 edition of Commodity Week.
Todd Gleason's services are madeavailable to WILL by University
of Illinois Extension. Welcometo Commodity Week. I am Todd
Gleason. Our panelists for theday include Matt Bennett of
agmarket.net.
He's in Windsor, Illinois. EllenDearden joins us from RAG Review
(00:22):
in Morton, Illinois. And LoganKimmel is here from Roach Ag. He
is in Naperville, Illinois.Commodity week, of course, is a
production of Illinois publicmedium.
It's public radio for thefarming world online on demand
at willag.org. Let's get a listof items that we should discuss
for the day. Ellen Deirden atAgReview, I'll start with you.
(00:43):
What have you been thinkingabout?
Ellen Dearden (00:45):
I've really been thinking about, what the USDA
will dole out on the next WASDEreport. There's been an awful
lot of talk about higher cornyields and it'll be interesting
to see if USDA raises those inthe August report. Typically it
isn't real, prevalent to seethat And also what are they
(01:07):
going to do with ethanol andfeed demand for the twenty
five-twenty six marketing year.
Todd Gleason (01:13):
Matt Bennett on your list?
Matt Bennett (01:15):
Yeah, I mean, I think, growers are trying to
figure out what to do, with someof these bushels that have to
come to town. It's been probablymy most talked about topic here
lately and just different ideasand how to approach that with
kind of crop we're looking at, alot of folks feel like basis and
myself included could getawfully interesting this fall.
(01:37):
So I don't want to get into asituation there, but I'd be very
interested to hear what theseguys have to say about that. And
yeah, of course, I think wewould need to talk about yields,
Not just what we think yieldsare, but, you know, what's the
number gonna be in August.
Todd Gleason (01:50):
And then Logan Kimmel from Rojag Marketing.
Anything that, they didn'tdiscuss that you have on your
list?
Logan Kimmel (01:56):
Yeah. I think it's a good time of the year to wrap
up and discuss, folks sweepingout the bins, what to do, remain
old crop, bushels and bushelsthat need a home here this fall.
There's also been somevolatility in some outside
markets, in metals, currencies,but also today in the livestock
(02:17):
market, specifically cattle, forfolks that have risk in the
livestock department, we cantouch on that as well.
Todd Gleason (02:24):
Okay, so I will come back to you on that one in
just a second, but I do withthat. We'll begin with Ellen
Dearden. And all three of youactually, I think, follow, the
beef cattle market much moreclosely than I do. I was
flabbergasted when I read thoselive on the air for the first
time because I had not seen thatnumber on Thursday afternoon.
(02:46):
What took place, do you think,Ellen Deirden, in the
marketplace that made the beefcattle market drop so
precipitously?
Ellen Dearden (02:53):
I'm really not sure other than the fact that we
saw the fed cattle cash marketfall apart. The call for the
week had been for higher cashprices and we've not been able
to see them but I wasflabbergasted. It looks like
there's a lot of air under thismarket. You know, we've been
(03:14):
making new contract highs in thelives and the feeders, and we
just couldn't keep the the ballrolling uphill.
Todd Gleason (03:21):
And Logan Kimmel, your review of the marketplace
on Thursday.
Logan Kimmel (03:25):
Yeah. I think the large swing has become almost
standard now. Cattle market'sbeen strong, fundamentals have
been strong, but I think it'sbeen important and today's a
good example of at these loftyprices, yeah, the scenario seems
still friendly. But the amountof money flow that I think has
(03:49):
been in the market and can comeout of this market from the spec
funds, I think today shows that.And I agree 100%.
The air underneath this market,it can be quite frightening.
That I believe is if you havethe risk along this move here
and along the way, it's been, Ithink, an opportunity to layer
(04:11):
off some of that with downsideprotection for days like today.
And I do think there's a lot ofvolatility in some of these
outside markets. Copper, for anexample, is just that it had a
massive, massive reversal. Sothat would be, I guess,
something to watch goingforward.
We have seen the hog market pullback as well from its highs, and
(04:32):
maybe started a seasonaldecline. So the conversations
we've been having while, A, it'sa great run here, and it might
still continue. But when youstart having $6 or $8 swings,
and you've got the risk in thosemarkets, I think it's important
to look at big picture wherewe're at and protect that.
Todd Gleason (04:53):
Yeah. The live cattle and the feeder cattle
doing those 6 and $8 swings,Matt Bennett on Thursday during
the day trade. How did you viewit, and have you heard anything
about that marketplace?
Matt Bennett (05:04):
Well, you know, we we heard about some of these
folks kinda backing off theirbasis as far as buying some of
these fats. I mean, obviously,when you talk 2 forties and even
heard a few rumblings of 2fifties in places, you're
getting awfully rich. And sothey've kind of back off of the
what they're paying just alittle bit. And and clearly it
(05:26):
shows you there's a, you know, afew dents in the armor, so to
speak. So, you know, I thinkwhen you look at this thing, I
mean, you're coming here inthree or four days, three out of
four days, you make a new highin the cattle market, you know
you're going to be subsequent toa sell off somewhere in here.
And as Logan said, mean, fundshave been super long for quite
some time. I guess the questionthat all three of us have
(05:49):
probably been asked quite a bitis when this cattle market is
going to top out. And obviouslynobody knows that, but the easy
answer for me has been, it'sgonna top out before anybody
expects it. And I'm not callinga top here. We didn't go make a
new high today and close lower.
Yesterday's high held impact,but at the same time, you gotta
(06:10):
understand that when the fundsdo lose interest here, it's
gonna be a mass exodus, at leastfor a time. There's there's a
heck of a lot, as both of theseguys said, a heck of a lot of
air under this market. And, youknow, you get the the gates
won't be open far enough. Know,always say the door on the
futures, but with grains, but Ithink with cattle, got to say
(06:32):
you could have two twenty footgates sitting there and it's not
going be big enough to leteveryone out at once. So keeping
a cautious tone here, especiallyfor anybody who's got any risk
whatsoever, is something that'sgotta be, considered very
strongly, anytime you're makingnew highs in the market.
Todd Gleason (06:48):
Ellen, could you put this week's trade, and the
moves through highs for thecattle market before we had the
drop on Thursday intoperspective of the reports from
USDA last Friday. And then, ifyou could, I'd like you to turn
that right through to feeddemand and what that might mean
(07:09):
to you going into the WASDE.
Ellen Dearden (07:11):
The cattle inventory report which is a semi
annual report came out alongwith the cattle on feed report
last Friday. I don't think therewas any real surprises there.
Maybe one of the things thathave blunted what we're looking
at in this cattle inventory isthat there was no report last
(07:34):
year, no report in July.Therefore our comparisons were
for 2025 being compared to 2023.So when we looked at the number
of cattle and calves beinglower, you know, they were down
99% in the you know biginventory numbers.
(07:57):
But, you know, were we incomparison to last year? But the
numbers I don't think there wasany surprises there. So
therefore we go back to tradingwhatever we've been trading and
as Matt pointed out these fundshave been just so super long the
live cattle and also thefeeders. So therefore, you know
(08:22):
the cattle numbers not beingthere, tonnage is, per parkas is
up a little bit. But, you knowfrom my perspective we've got
feed demand has really fallenoff.
We've got hog numbers thataren't growing. We've got cattle
numbers that are declining. Theonly thing we've got that's
(08:43):
eating more corn and meal is thechickens and certainly we can
ramp them up pretty easily andquickly. You know we've got news
this week that China is reducingtheir hog herd again. So I think
we've got to be looking at feeddemand both on the corn side and
(09:03):
the meal side is probably goingto be down in subsequent reports
to even to this next Augustreport.
Todd Gleason (09:12):
Matt Bennett on the news from China that came
along with reports that not onlywere the hog numbers down, but
that was driven at least thereport I saw potentially by a
lack of demand by the populacethere that might be cause for
concern as it relates to theeconomy. You can maybe tell me
more. And a glut of bean mealthat, they have crushed mostly
(09:38):
or almost all, I suppose, fromsoybeans imported from Brazil.
What can you tell me about thatmarketplace as you see it?
Matt Bennett (09:46):
I mean, clearly, this Chinese economy has been
somewhat shaky. They've tried toshore it up several times in
here, but there's definitelysome question marks there. And
anytime you see that, of course,it's a population that has
essentially improved their dietssignificantly over the last
thirty, forty years. And ifyou're hitting on some tough
(10:10):
times, I mean, it might betougher to expect them to be
able to have a protein rich dietthere, at least to the tune that
they have been. So if demand'sbacking off, it would make sense
with some of the question markson their economy.
As far as this meal market goes,I mean, overall, the world's
(10:31):
gonna have plenty of meal inhere. There's no doubt China's
bought a lot of beets offBrazil, crushing those for meal.
But you look at The US forinstance, and no doubt that if
you're gonna continue to crushmore beans than what you have
crushed historically, you'regonna have a whole lot of meal
on hand. Yes, we're gonna try toexport some of that meal, but
it's certainly gonna keep thatprotein source very cheap. And
(10:53):
so I do think that could providesome opportunities actually for
some folks that are feeding hogshere in The US.
But the meal market, in myopinion, that's a tough one to
try to get bullish on. Yes,we're looking at multi year
lows, there's no question, butat the same time, from a supply
and demand standpoint, I thinkit's gonna have a tough road to
(11:14):
hoe if you really wanna see thatmarket rally.
Todd Gleason (11:16):
Let's stay with the global landscape, Logan
Kimmel. Mexico and The UnitedStates have agreed to extend the
trade talks they have. Thisdoesn't have really an impact on
the ability to move productbecause that's covered by the
USMCA, at least corn and agproducts are in general. Beef
(11:39):
cattle's different functionbecause of the screwworm.
However, I'm wondering, giventhat ninety day extension, how
you and the marketplace views itrelated to the rest of the trade
deals that Trump administrationhas or is trying to put into
place at this point?
Logan Kimmel (11:57):
Yeah. I mean, I guess at this point, it's been
par for the course. It seems tocontinue to have these
extensions. I don't know, it canbe a little aggravating just
when you want to see a tradedeal come through, especially
with China. And then you've gota separate negotiation and
(12:19):
tactic with Mexico.
I think it's positive to seethat with Mexico because they're
a massive buyer of US corn. Butwhen it comes to China, I mean,
yeah, that's the hope is tocontinue to see negotiations.
That would be exactly what weneed in the marketplace, a trade
deal struck. However, I wouldn'thold my breath or base my
(12:42):
marketing plan around that giventhat we're already almost into
harvest and we haven't quiteseen that pop up in the
marketplace yet. So do thinkextensions, negotiations
probably are helpful to worktowards a trade deal, but that
would be, yes, what themarketplace would want to see is
something in the works, a secondround trade deal with China.
(13:06):
Because especially in regards tothe soybean market would be
exactly what we need from theseprices given the crop we have.
Todd Gleason (13:15):
Ellen Deirdre, now let's put that into context with
soybean exports from The UnitedStates to China, none to speak
of. At this point for the fallin 2018, they did not take any,
and it appears Brazil may havean early planting season based
on La Nina. We don't know thatwill be the case, of course, at
(13:36):
this time, which could shortenup the window, for the export
market from The United States toChina. How are how are you
taking all of this in, and canyou plan for that as we move
into the fall harvest season?
Ellen Dearden (13:49):
I do not believe we can make a plan based on
improved exports at all on beansand I think that the timing of
of sales is we're already pastthe beginning point of selling
stuff into Asia big time beingsales into Asia So I'm, very
(14:17):
concerned about exports and theexport pace and how things could
actually even back up into thecountry.
Todd Gleason (14:24):
Let's talk about trying to raise cash out of the
fall for bills that will need tobe paid prior to December.
Logan, I'd like to start withthe old crop as it relates to
bushels, probably corn for youfirst, and what kind of plan
producers ought to have in placeto get rid of whatever they have
(14:47):
left at this time?
Logan Kimmel (14:48):
Yeah, I mean at this point for the old crop,
you've got a couple of things ofrunning against you. One, just
the calendar. Here we are almostour progress show right around
the corner. So I guess if you'rehanging on to your last bit of
old crop, there hasn't been aton of opportunities. But if you
do happen to catch maybe a basispush here in the next two weeks,
(15:14):
then maybe end user calls youup.
Think use any basis push or popto go ahead and wrap that up.
Because I think what we're goingto run into, and a lot of folks
have mentioned, is maybe largercrop coming in new crop wise
than what she had marketed for,budgeted for, and essentially
(15:36):
what you have space for. So Ithink that's in very short
order, need to be takenadvantage of. To make room for
the new crop as well, because Ithink that could be a problem,
as Matt mentioned, is basislevels in three to four weeks as
we see some harvest begin in theDelta. I think, yeah, up against
(15:59):
the clock, but any opportunitiesfor the old crop if you're still
hanging on, use those here inthe next two weeks and then we
can start focusing on the newcrop marketing.
Todd Gleason (16:07):
From the JSA side, the elevator manager side, Matt,
when you are looking forward toa soybean crop that will
probably have to be stored formuch longer than maybe you are
thinking normally because theChinese are not in the
marketplace or may not be in themarketplace, and you have a very
(16:28):
large corn crop, at least atthis point, that's coming in.
What will they do? And I supposebreak bases is the answer, but
how how how do they handle that?I mean, they they've they've
gotta probably find a place forcorn on the ground. We haven't
seen a lot of piles for years.
This may be one of those yearsthat that happens.
Matt Bennett (16:48):
Yeah. I mean, there's there's no doubt that
storage space, even though we'veadded a lot of storage, is gonna
be an issue, especially in, youknow, some of these areas that,
you if you're going to call fora 184, 185 yield, which we hear
a lot on, if you're calling forthat, then obviously there's
gonna be a lot of counties thatare going to be posting well
(17:09):
above record yields. And so it'sgoing to be tough to find space.
And so you know, what are theygoing to do there? I mean,
that's that's a tough call.
I do think that the grower isgoing to, in my opinion, be a
little more willing to sellsoybeans than corn. I mean, it's
a phenomenon we see most years.I mean, lot of growers don't
necessarily like to storesoybeans. We don't see a lot of
(17:31):
that storage on the farm.Whenever you look at the corn
situation, you could see alittle bit of a shift in
sentiment at some point in here,you know, with what we talked
about just a little bit ago asfar as, yeah, you know, corn
fertilizer price ratio, justliquidity of the farmer, acreage
should be lower next year.
But that causes me some concernwhen I look over soybeans,
(17:54):
because acres could actuallycreep up somewhat. We know
Brazil's gonna plant more beans.So, yes, some of these beans may
be stored for a while. Theexport situation is problematic.
I mean, as of this time lastyear, China hadn't bought hardly
any beans.
And so clearly, they bought aton in the fall. I have a lot of
confidence there that that'sgoing to happen this year with
(18:14):
no trade agreement in place, butcertainly that can happen in
very short order. And so thatbrings me to the grower. You
know, if the grower is trying tofigure out what to do here,
clearly, it's going to be, youknow, it's going to be different
for everyone. But those that canstore corn on the farm, I think
that it would be wise to hold onto some ownership corn there.
(18:36):
I think that's the only placeI'd really want to do it would
be on the farm. Whereas onsoybeans, you know, it's a tough
call, Todd, because quitefrankly, you know, at sub $10
cash levels, you've got to havesome pretty massive bean yields
to call this a win. Andunfortunately, I think that some
growers may, you know, throwtheir hands up and maybe cast
their lot on seeing some sort ofa corn rally and calling beans
(19:00):
what it is for the time beingbecause I don't know that their
appetite for storing those beanscommercially is gonna be there.
Todd Gleason (19:06):
Ellen Dearden, what are you talking to your
producers about as it's relatedto the fall storage issues?
Ellen Dearden (19:12):
Well, I I think that, Matt's exactly right that,
moving beans at harvest seems tobe the bent of most growers,
even looking at the wide basison the beans. I think the fears
are there that basis will turnwider yet. There may be some
opportunities for early harvestcorn to see a little bit of a
(19:36):
basis play if old crop getsmoved here in the next two weeks
but the early corn in Septembermay have some opportunities and
I would sure recommend anybodythat's in the in the situation
they have hybrids ready early,to market that corn sell it
right across the scales don'tdeliver it on any contracts you
(20:00):
know and get that done but beansI don't know I'm just I hate to
sell beans for deferred deliveryand store them in town but this
may be a year to do that.
Todd Gleason (20:13):
And finally, Logan Kimmel, we started with you on
this round, but based on oldcrop, what do you see for new
crop?
Logan Kimmel (20:19):
I think for producers that have bin space
and can store on farm, theremight be some opportunities with
the carry in the market. Ifyou're sitting here looking out
to East March, East May or evenJuly, I mean out to May dollars
0.27. December, July, $0.03 3.So if you've got the bin space
(20:45):
and can hold the bushels, Ithink there's a potential for a
setup maybe for a better markethere post harvest into the
winter with the demand pacewe're on. So take advantage of
that and look at the carry.
You got the bins for a reason.But I would say for new crop on
(21:07):
farm, that might be theopportunity for producers this
winter if you can hang on to thephysical bushels. Also on the
new crop sitting down this timeof the year and maybe running
new break evens with a higheryield. If you're confident in an
area that you think you're goingto have a higher bushel or APH
(21:28):
number than maybe you plannedfor this spring, run those
numbers across your balancesheet and you might be surprised
a little bit on no, the priceisn't great right now, but if
you do got 25, 30 more bushel anacre on corn, that might make
those selling decisions a littlebit easier. So, I'd say those
are the things folks can bedoing here on new crop right now
(21:49):
at this point in time.
Todd Gleason (21:50):
Ellen Dearden, on the August, that's a Tuesday at
11AM central time, USDA willrelease its first crop
production report of the year.You've suggested that more often
than not, they're kind of in therange of what, this time of year
at least, what, they have beenusing that would be 181 as a
(22:11):
yield for corn. And you alsowanted to talk about demand,
particularly as it's related toethanol. Pick up with, where you
think corn yield might come outin August and if that grows I
suppose from there if 181 isdropped.
Ellen Dearden (22:29):
My guess is that USDA will bump up that 181 yield
a little bit. You know it wasn'ttoo many weeks ago when we were
talking 181 will never get thathigh and now you know the
numbers up around 184, 185 maybesome even higher than that but I
think they'll probably bump itup maybe a bushel. I do
(22:51):
anticipate that ethanol demandwill go up about 15,000,000
bushel on the demand side ofthings but I'm afraid feed will
drop 15,000,000. So the totaluse will remain unchanged even
while the supplies could riseleaving a carryout maybe at that
1,900,000,000 bushel. Anythingunder 2,000,000,000 bushel may
(23:12):
be a win on this report.
Todd Gleason (23:14):
This would be the carryout, in the 2026 not of
course for the 2025 calendaryear. Matt Bennett, what numbers
are you plugging in?
Matt Bennett (23:26):
And so, you know, right now, whenever you look at
these crop condition ratings,which I'm not a huge fan of,
we're significantly better thanwhat we were a year ago on corn.
Obviously the USDA had, youknow, maybe a little egg on your
face coming in in the 183,almost 184 range, August through
October, November. But, youknow, are they gonna come in as
(23:49):
hot and heavy as what they did ayear ago? And, you know, I I
sure hope Ellen's right thatthey don't come in. But if I'm
gonna guess today, and this isnot an official estimate from
our team, I feel like they'regoing to come in closer to where
they were a year ago, maybe evena shade above it.
I think when you look at thesethermal imaging maps, the NDVI,
(24:10):
I mean, there's some awfullygood rated crops out here. I did
a video with snodgrass today,and we were just looking through
that. And I tell you what, it'srunning well ahead of any year
we've seen in a long time. Andso with that being the case, I'd
probably guess they're gonnacome in somewhere between 183.5
(24:31):
and 184 for corn. And if I wasgonna guess on soybeans, I don't
know that they'll change itmuch.
I mean, it's just really hard asof August 1 to know what you've
got. So I would assume they'llleave that August bean yield the
same, but that's just me.
Todd Gleason (24:44):
And, Logan, do you have an estimate from Roach Ag?
Logan Kimmel (24:47):
No. I mean, not an official estimate, I agree with
Ellen and Matt. I do think you'dsee the core number bumped up
here, just given the growingseason we've had, the
conversations we're having.There just really isn't hardly
any folks experiencing awidespread crop issue. In fact,
(25:10):
a lot of producers we're talkingto, truly believe they're going
to have one of the better cropson record for their farm.
So just gathering thoseconversations, the general
consensus, at least on the cornside is probably seeing a bump
in the yield. And I do think onfrom what the trade right now,
(25:32):
given what the trade is trading,probably is a little bit higher
than 183 or 184 given Septemberfuture prices at $3.94 and these
at $4.13 We just haven't seenany excitement in this corn
market because I think the tradeis assuming a higher yield
already. Now on the soybeans,it's still got some time here.
(25:55):
The month of August isimportant. I think folks are
confident in their bean crop,but no, even going back to last
year, things can get a littlehot and dry in August and that
matters for the beans.
So, we're pretty in line with,or I'm in line with, Ellen and
Matt on that.
Todd Gleason (26:10):
Let's wrap up now. I'll get a final word from each
of you. Matt Bennett fromagmarket dot net. What's your
final word for the day?
Matt Bennett (26:18):
Well, right now things look pretty rough. I
mean, there's no question aboutit. I think that the sentiment
of growers isn't exactly rosywhenever it comes to picture
prices. But, you know, at thesame time, obviously, it looks
like we've got a pretty decentyield coming here. My biggest
thing is to be prepared and knowexactly what your plan is going
into harvest, how much moneyyou're gonna need, how many
(26:40):
bushels you need to move, andtry to make those decisions
before you have to.
Todd Gleason (26:45):
That's Matt Bennett. He is with
agmarket.net. He'll be drivingto Des Moines, for the Friday
afternoon taping of Market toMarket, which you can watch on
our companion station, WILLchannel twelve, Sunday morning
at 11:30AM. Logan Kimmel ofRoach Ag Marketing has also
joined us here on commodity weekfrom Illinois Public Media.
(27:06):
What's your final word for theday, Logan?
Logan Kimmel (27:09):
Talked a little bit on some outside markets.
One, I forgot to mention that Ithink it's important for in the
grain industry for folks to bewatching here is the U. S.
Dollar. It started to creep backup here and reverse on the
month.
Guess it makes it that much moreimportant going forward for
marketing opportunities, know,take advantage of them because a
(27:33):
dollar moving back higher mightbe a headwind here in the grain
markets for producers.
Todd Gleason (27:39):
And finally, Ellen Dearden from AgReview out of
Morton, Illinois. Your finalword for the day.
Ellen Dearden (27:44):
I noticed that the most recent, drought monitor
for The US shows a shrinkingarea of drought and dryness on
both corn and beans this week.However, at the same time,
Mexican drought seems to beholding on. If that Mexican
drought expands, watch for, moreexports in corn to Mexico even
(28:07):
even with the good good onesalready on the book.
Todd Gleason (28:10):
Commodity week, of course, is a production of
Illinois Public Media. It'spublic radio for the farming
world. You may listen to thewhole of the program anytime
you'd like at willag.org,willag.0rg. Our thanks go to our
panelists this week includingLogan Kimmel, Ellen Dearden, and
Matt Bennett. I'm University ofIllinois Extension's Todd Lewis.
This is the July 31 edition of Commodity Week.
Todd Gleason's services are madeavailable to WILL by University
of Illinois Extension. Welcometo Commodity Week. I am Todd
Gleason. Our panelists for theday include Matt Bennett of
agmarket.net.
He's in Windsor, Illinois. EllenDearden joins us from RAG Review
(00:22):
in Morton, Illinois. And LoganKimmel is here from Roach Ag. He
is in Naperville, Illinois.Commodity week, of course, is a
production of Illinois publicmedium.
It's public radio for thefarming world online on demand
at willag.org. Let's get a listof items that we should discuss
for the day. Ellen Deirden atAgReview, I'll start with you.
(00:43):
What have you been thinkingabout?
Ellen Dearden (00:45):
I've really been thinking about, what the USDA
will dole out on the next WASDEreport. There's been an awful
lot of talk about higher cornyields and it'll be interesting
to see if USDA raises those inthe August report. Typically it
isn't real, prevalent to seethat And also what are they
(01:07):
going to do with ethanol andfeed demand for the twenty
five-twenty six marketing year.
Todd Gleason (01:13):
Matt Bennett on your list?
Matt Bennett (01:15):
Yeah, I mean, I think, growers are trying to
figure out what to do, with someof these bushels that have to
come to town. It's been probablymy most talked about topic here
lately and just different ideasand how to approach that with
kind of crop we're looking at, alot of folks feel like basis and
myself included could getawfully interesting this fall.
(01:37):
So I don't want to get into asituation there, but I'd be very
interested to hear what theseguys have to say about that. And
yeah, of course, I think wewould need to talk about yields,
Not just what we think yieldsare, but, you know, what's the
number gonna be in August.
Todd Gleason (01:50):
And then Logan Kimmel from Rojag Marketing.
Anything that, they didn'tdiscuss that you have on your
list?
Logan Kimmel (01:56):
Yeah. I think it's a good time of the year to wrap
up and discuss, folks sweepingout the bins, what to do, remain
old crop, bushels and bushelsthat need a home here this fall.
There's also been somevolatility in some outside
markets, in metals, currencies,but also today in the livestock
(02:17):
market, specifically cattle, forfolks that have risk in the
livestock department, we cantouch on that as well.
Todd Gleason (02:24):
Okay, so I will come back to you on that one in
just a second, but I do withthat. We'll begin with Ellen
Dearden. And all three of youactually, I think, follow, the
beef cattle market much moreclosely than I do. I was
flabbergasted when I read thoselive on the air for the first
time because I had not seen thatnumber on Thursday afternoon.
(02:46):
What took place, do you think,Ellen Deirden, in the
marketplace that made the beefcattle market drop so
precipitously?
Ellen Dearden (02:53):
I'm really not sure other than the fact that we
saw the fed cattle cash marketfall apart. The call for the
week had been for higher cashprices and we've not been able
to see them but I wasflabbergasted. It looks like
there's a lot of air under thismarket. You know, we've been
(03:14):
making new contract highs in thelives and the feeders, and we
just couldn't keep the the ballrolling uphill.
Todd Gleason (03:21):
And Logan Kimmel, your review of the marketplace
on Thursday.
Logan Kimmel (03:25):
Yeah. I think the large swing has become almost
standard now. Cattle market'sbeen strong, fundamentals have
been strong, but I think it'sbeen important and today's a
good example of at these loftyprices, yeah, the scenario seems
still friendly. But the amountof money flow that I think has
(03:49):
been in the market and can comeout of this market from the spec
funds, I think today shows that.And I agree 100%.
The air underneath this market,it can be quite frightening.
That I believe is if you havethe risk along this move here
and along the way, it's been, Ithink, an opportunity to layer
(04:11):
off some of that with downsideprotection for days like today.
And I do think there's a lot ofvolatility in some of these
outside markets. Copper, for anexample, is just that it had a
massive, massive reversal. Sothat would be, I guess,
something to watch goingforward.
We have seen the hog market pullback as well from its highs, and
(04:32):
maybe started a seasonaldecline. So the conversations
we've been having while, A, it'sa great run here, and it might
still continue. But when youstart having $6 or $8 swings,
and you've got the risk in thosemarkets, I think it's important
to look at big picture wherewe're at and protect that.
Todd Gleason (04:53):
Yeah. The live cattle and the feeder cattle
doing those 6 and $8 swings,Matt Bennett on Thursday during
the day trade. How did you viewit, and have you heard anything
about that marketplace?
Matt Bennett (05:04):
Well, you know, we we heard about some of these
folks kinda backing off theirbasis as far as buying some of
these fats. I mean, obviously,when you talk 2 forties and even
heard a few rumblings of 2fifties in places, you're
getting awfully rich. And sothey've kind of back off of the
what they're paying just alittle bit. And and clearly it
(05:26):
shows you there's a, you know, afew dents in the armor, so to
speak. So, you know, I thinkwhen you look at this thing, I
mean, you're coming here inthree or four days, three out of
four days, you make a new highin the cattle market, you know
you're going to be subsequent toa sell off somewhere in here.
And as Logan said, mean, fundshave been super long for quite
some time. I guess the questionthat all three of us have
(05:49):
probably been asked quite a bitis when this cattle market is
going to top out. And obviouslynobody knows that, but the easy
answer for me has been, it'sgonna top out before anybody
expects it. And I'm not callinga top here. We didn't go make a
new high today and close lower.
Yesterday's high held impact,but at the same time, you gotta
(06:10):
understand that when the fundsdo lose interest here, it's
gonna be a mass exodus, at leastfor a time. There's there's a
heck of a lot, as both of theseguys said, a heck of a lot of
air under this market. And, youknow, you get the the gates
won't be open far enough. Know,always say the door on the
futures, but with grains, but Ithink with cattle, got to say
(06:32):
you could have two twenty footgates sitting there and it's not
going be big enough to leteveryone out at once. So keeping
a cautious tone here, especiallyfor anybody who's got any risk
whatsoever, is something that'sgotta be, considered very
strongly, anytime you're makingnew highs in the market.
Todd Gleason (06:48):
Ellen, could you put this week's trade, and the
moves through highs for thecattle market before we had the
drop on Thursday intoperspective of the reports from
USDA last Friday. And then, ifyou could, I'd like you to turn
that right through to feeddemand and what that might mean
(07:09):
to you going into the WASDE.
Ellen Dearden (07:11):
The cattle inventory report which is a semi
annual report came out alongwith the cattle on feed report
last Friday. I don't think therewas any real surprises there.
Maybe one of the things thathave blunted what we're looking
at in this cattle inventory isthat there was no report last
(07:34):
year, no report in July.Therefore our comparisons were
for 2025 being compared to 2023.So when we looked at the number
of cattle and calves beinglower, you know, they were down
99% in the you know biginventory numbers.
(07:57):
But, you know, were we incomparison to last year? But the
numbers I don't think there wasany surprises there. So
therefore we go back to tradingwhatever we've been trading and
as Matt pointed out these fundshave been just so super long the
live cattle and also thefeeders. So therefore, you know
(08:22):
the cattle numbers not beingthere, tonnage is, per parkas is
up a little bit. But, you knowfrom my perspective we've got
feed demand has really fallenoff.
We've got hog numbers thataren't growing. We've got cattle
numbers that are declining. Theonly thing we've got that's
(08:43):
eating more corn and meal is thechickens and certainly we can
ramp them up pretty easily andquickly. You know we've got news
this week that China is reducingtheir hog herd again. So I think
we've got to be looking at feeddemand both on the corn side and
(09:03):
the meal side is probably goingto be down in subsequent reports
to even to this next Augustreport.
Todd Gleason (09:12):
Matt Bennett on the news from China that came
along with reports that not onlywere the hog numbers down, but
that was driven at least thereport I saw potentially by a
lack of demand by the populacethere that might be cause for
concern as it relates to theeconomy. You can maybe tell me
more. And a glut of bean mealthat, they have crushed mostly
(09:38):
or almost all, I suppose, fromsoybeans imported from Brazil.
What can you tell me about thatmarketplace as you see it?
Matt Bennett (09:46):
I mean, clearly, this Chinese economy has been
somewhat shaky. They've tried toshore it up several times in
here, but there's definitelysome question marks there. And
anytime you see that, of course,it's a population that has
essentially improved their dietssignificantly over the last
thirty, forty years. And ifyou're hitting on some tough
(10:10):
times, I mean, it might betougher to expect them to be
able to have a protein rich dietthere, at least to the tune that
they have been. So if demand'sbacking off, it would make sense
with some of the question markson their economy.
As far as this meal market goes,I mean, overall, the world's
(10:31):
gonna have plenty of meal inhere. There's no doubt China's
bought a lot of beets offBrazil, crushing those for meal.
But you look at The US forinstance, and no doubt that if
you're gonna continue to crushmore beans than what you have
crushed historically, you'regonna have a whole lot of meal
on hand. Yes, we're gonna try toexport some of that meal, but
it's certainly gonna keep thatprotein source very cheap. And
(10:53):
so I do think that could providesome opportunities actually for
some folks that are feeding hogshere in The US.
But the meal market, in myopinion, that's a tough one to
try to get bullish on. Yes,we're looking at multi year
lows, there's no question, butat the same time, from a supply
and demand standpoint, I thinkit's gonna have a tough road to
(11:14):
hoe if you really wanna see thatmarket rally.
Todd Gleason (11:16):
Let's stay with the global landscape, Logan
Kimmel. Mexico and The UnitedStates have agreed to extend the
trade talks they have. Thisdoesn't have really an impact on
the ability to move productbecause that's covered by the
USMCA, at least corn and agproducts are in general. Beef
(11:39):
cattle's different functionbecause of the screwworm.
However, I'm wondering, giventhat ninety day extension, how
you and the marketplace views itrelated to the rest of the trade
deals that Trump administrationhas or is trying to put into
place at this point?
Logan Kimmel (11:57):
Yeah. I mean, I guess at this point, it's been
par for the course. It seems tocontinue to have these
extensions. I don't know, it canbe a little aggravating just
when you want to see a tradedeal come through, especially
with China. And then you've gota separate negotiation and
(12:19):
tactic with Mexico.
I think it's positive to seethat with Mexico because they're
a massive buyer of US corn. Butwhen it comes to China, I mean,
yeah, that's the hope is tocontinue to see negotiations.
That would be exactly what weneed in the marketplace, a trade
deal struck. However, I wouldn'thold my breath or base my
(12:42):
marketing plan around that giventhat we're already almost into
harvest and we haven't quiteseen that pop up in the
marketplace yet. So do thinkextensions, negotiations
probably are helpful to worktowards a trade deal, but that
would be, yes, what themarketplace would want to see is
something in the works, a secondround trade deal with China.
(13:06):
Because especially in regards tothe soybean market would be
exactly what we need from theseprices given the crop we have.
Todd Gleason (13:15):
Ellen Deirdre, now let's put that into context with
soybean exports from The UnitedStates to China, none to speak
of. At this point for the fallin 2018, they did not take any,
and it appears Brazil may havean early planting season based
on La Nina. We don't know thatwill be the case, of course, at
(13:36):
this time, which could shortenup the window, for the export
market from The United States toChina. How are how are you
taking all of this in, and canyou plan for that as we move
into the fall harvest season?
Ellen Dearden (13:49):
I do not believe we can make a plan based on
improved exports at all on beansand I think that the timing of
of sales is we're already pastthe beginning point of selling
stuff into Asia big time beingsales into Asia So I'm, very
(14:17):
concerned about exports and theexport pace and how things could
actually even back up into thecountry.
Todd Gleason (14:24):
Let's talk about trying to raise cash out of the
fall for bills that will need tobe paid prior to December.
Logan, I'd like to start withthe old crop as it relates to
bushels, probably corn for youfirst, and what kind of plan
producers ought to have in placeto get rid of whatever they have
(14:47):
left at this time?
Logan Kimmel (14:48):
Yeah, I mean at this point for the old crop,
you've got a couple of things ofrunning against you. One, just
the calendar. Here we are almostour progress show right around
the corner. So I guess if you'rehanging on to your last bit of
old crop, there hasn't been aton of opportunities. But if you
do happen to catch maybe a basispush here in the next two weeks,
(15:14):
then maybe end user calls youup.
Think use any basis push or popto go ahead and wrap that up.
Because I think what we're goingto run into, and a lot of folks
have mentioned, is maybe largercrop coming in new crop wise
than what she had marketed for,budgeted for, and essentially
(15:36):
what you have space for. So Ithink that's in very short
order, need to be takenadvantage of. To make room for
the new crop as well, because Ithink that could be a problem,
as Matt mentioned, is basislevels in three to four weeks as
we see some harvest begin in theDelta. I think, yeah, up against
(15:59):
the clock, but any opportunitiesfor the old crop if you're still
hanging on, use those here inthe next two weeks and then we
can start focusing on the newcrop marketing.
Todd Gleason (16:07):
From the JSA side, the elevator manager side, Matt,
when you are looking forward toa soybean crop that will
probably have to be stored formuch longer than maybe you are
thinking normally because theChinese are not in the
marketplace or may not be in themarketplace, and you have a very
(16:28):
large corn crop, at least atthis point, that's coming in.
What will they do? And I supposebreak bases is the answer, but
how how how do they handle that?I mean, they they've they've
gotta probably find a place forcorn on the ground. We haven't
seen a lot of piles for years.
This may be one of those yearsthat that happens.
Matt Bennett (16:48):
Yeah. I mean, there's there's no doubt that
storage space, even though we'veadded a lot of storage, is gonna
be an issue, especially in, youknow, some of these areas that,
you if you're going to call fora 184, 185 yield, which we hear
a lot on, if you're calling forthat, then obviously there's
gonna be a lot of counties thatare going to be posting well
(17:09):
above record yields. And so it'sgoing to be tough to find space.
And so you know, what are theygoing to do there? I mean,
that's that's a tough call.
I do think that the grower isgoing to, in my opinion, be a
little more willing to sellsoybeans than corn. I mean, it's
a phenomenon we see most years.I mean, lot of growers don't
necessarily like to storesoybeans. We don't see a lot of
(17:31):
that storage on the farm.Whenever you look at the corn
situation, you could see alittle bit of a shift in
sentiment at some point in here,you know, with what we talked
about just a little bit ago asfar as, yeah, you know, corn
fertilizer price ratio, justliquidity of the farmer, acreage
should be lower next year.
But that causes me some concernwhen I look over soybeans,
(17:54):
because acres could actuallycreep up somewhat. We know
Brazil's gonna plant more beans.So, yes, some of these beans may
be stored for a while. Theexport situation is problematic.
I mean, as of this time lastyear, China hadn't bought hardly
any beans.
And so clearly, they bought aton in the fall. I have a lot of
confidence there that that'sgoing to happen this year with
(18:14):
no trade agreement in place, butcertainly that can happen in
very short order. And so thatbrings me to the grower. You
know, if the grower is trying tofigure out what to do here,
clearly, it's going to be, youknow, it's going to be different
for everyone. But those that canstore corn on the farm, I think
that it would be wise to hold onto some ownership corn there.
(18:36):
I think that's the only placeI'd really want to do it would
be on the farm. Whereas onsoybeans, you know, it's a tough
call, Todd, because quitefrankly, you know, at sub $10
cash levels, you've got to havesome pretty massive bean yields
to call this a win. Andunfortunately, I think that some
growers may, you know, throwtheir hands up and maybe cast
their lot on seeing some sort ofa corn rally and calling beans
(19:00):
what it is for the time beingbecause I don't know that their
appetite for storing those beanscommercially is gonna be there.
Todd Gleason (19:06):
Ellen Dearden, what are you talking to your
producers about as it's relatedto the fall storage issues?
Ellen Dearden (19:12):
Well, I I think that, Matt's exactly right that,
moving beans at harvest seems tobe the bent of most growers,
even looking at the wide basison the beans. I think the fears
are there that basis will turnwider yet. There may be some
opportunities for early harvestcorn to see a little bit of a
(19:36):
basis play if old crop getsmoved here in the next two weeks
but the early corn in Septembermay have some opportunities and
I would sure recommend anybodythat's in the in the situation
they have hybrids ready early,to market that corn sell it
right across the scales don'tdeliver it on any contracts you
(20:00):
know and get that done but beansI don't know I'm just I hate to
sell beans for deferred deliveryand store them in town but this
may be a year to do that.
Todd Gleason (20:13):
And finally, Logan Kimmel, we started with you on
this round, but based on oldcrop, what do you see for new
crop?
Logan Kimmel (20:19):
I think for producers that have bin space
and can store on farm, theremight be some opportunities with
the carry in the market. Ifyou're sitting here looking out
to East March, East May or evenJuly, I mean out to May dollars
0.27. December, July, $0.03 3.So if you've got the bin space
(20:45):
and can hold the bushels, Ithink there's a potential for a
setup maybe for a better markethere post harvest into the
winter with the demand pacewe're on. So take advantage of
that and look at the carry.
You got the bins for a reason.But I would say for new crop on
(21:07):
farm, that might be theopportunity for producers this
winter if you can hang on to thephysical bushels. Also on the
new crop sitting down this timeof the year and maybe running
new break evens with a higheryield. If you're confident in an
area that you think you're goingto have a higher bushel or APH
(21:28):
number than maybe you plannedfor this spring, run those
numbers across your balancesheet and you might be surprised
a little bit on no, the priceisn't great right now, but if
you do got 25, 30 more bushel anacre on corn, that might make
those selling decisions a littlebit easier. So, I'd say those
are the things folks can bedoing here on new crop right now
(21:49):
at this point in time.
Todd Gleason (21:50):
Ellen Dearden, on the August, that's a Tuesday at
11AM central time, USDA willrelease its first crop
production report of the year.You've suggested that more often
than not, they're kind of in therange of what, this time of year
at least, what, they have beenusing that would be 181 as a
(22:11):
yield for corn. And you alsowanted to talk about demand,
particularly as it's related toethanol. Pick up with, where you
think corn yield might come outin August and if that grows I
suppose from there if 181 isdropped.
Ellen Dearden (22:29):
My guess is that USDA will bump up that 181 yield
a little bit. You know it wasn'ttoo many weeks ago when we were
talking 181 will never get thathigh and now you know the
numbers up around 184, 185 maybesome even higher than that but I
think they'll probably bump itup maybe a bushel. I do
(22:51):
anticipate that ethanol demandwill go up about 15,000,000
bushel on the demand side ofthings but I'm afraid feed will
drop 15,000,000. So the totaluse will remain unchanged even
while the supplies could riseleaving a carryout maybe at that
1,900,000,000 bushel. Anythingunder 2,000,000,000 bushel may
(23:12):
be a win on this report.
Todd Gleason (23:14):
This would be the carryout, in the 2026 not of
course for the 2025 calendaryear. Matt Bennett, what numbers
are you plugging in?
Matt Bennett (23:26):
And so, you know, right now, whenever you look at
these crop condition ratings,which I'm not a huge fan of,
we're significantly better thanwhat we were a year ago on corn.
Obviously the USDA had, youknow, maybe a little egg on your
face coming in in the 183,almost 184 range, August through
October, November. But, youknow, are they gonna come in as
(23:49):
hot and heavy as what they did ayear ago? And, you know, I I
sure hope Ellen's right thatthey don't come in. But if I'm
gonna guess today, and this isnot an official estimate from
our team, I feel like they'regoing to come in closer to where
they were a year ago, maybe evena shade above it.
I think when you look at thesethermal imaging maps, the NDVI,
(24:10):
I mean, there's some awfullygood rated crops out here. I did
a video with snodgrass today,and we were just looking through
that. And I tell you what, it'srunning well ahead of any year
we've seen in a long time. Andso with that being the case, I'd
probably guess they're gonnacome in somewhere between 183.5
(24:31):
and 184 for corn. And if I wasgonna guess on soybeans, I don't
know that they'll change itmuch.
I mean, it's just really hard asof August 1 to know what you've
got. So I would assume they'llleave that August bean yield the
same, but that's just me.
Todd Gleason (24:44):
And, Logan, do you have an estimate from Roach Ag?
Logan Kimmel (24:47):
No. I mean, not an official estimate, I agree with
Ellen and Matt. I do think you'dsee the core number bumped up
here, just given the growingseason we've had, the
conversations we're having.There just really isn't hardly
any folks experiencing awidespread crop issue. In fact,
(25:10):
a lot of producers we're talkingto, truly believe they're going
to have one of the better cropson record for their farm.
So just gathering thoseconversations, the general
consensus, at least on the cornside is probably seeing a bump
in the yield. And I do think onfrom what the trade right now,
(25:32):
given what the trade is trading,probably is a little bit higher
than 183 or 184 given Septemberfuture prices at $3.94 and these
at $4.13 We just haven't seenany excitement in this corn
market because I think the tradeis assuming a higher yield
already. Now on the soybeans,it's still got some time here.
(25:55):
The month of August isimportant. I think folks are
confident in their bean crop,but no, even going back to last
year, things can get a littlehot and dry in August and that
matters for the beans.
So, we're pretty in line with,or I'm in line with, Ellen and
Matt on that.
Todd Gleason (26:10):
Let's wrap up now. I'll get a final word from each
of you. Matt Bennett fromagmarket dot net. What's your
final word for the day?
Matt Bennett (26:18):
Well, right now things look pretty rough. I
mean, there's no question aboutit. I think that the sentiment
of growers isn't exactly rosywhenever it comes to picture
prices. But, you know, at thesame time, obviously, it looks
like we've got a pretty decentyield coming here. My biggest
thing is to be prepared and knowexactly what your plan is going
into harvest, how much moneyyou're gonna need, how many
(26:40):
bushels you need to move, andtry to make those decisions
before you have to.
Todd Gleason (26:45):
That's Matt Bennett. He is with
agmarket.net. He'll be drivingto Des Moines, for the Friday
afternoon taping of Market toMarket, which you can watch on
our companion station, WILLchannel twelve, Sunday morning
at 11:30AM. Logan Kimmel ofRoach Ag Marketing has also
joined us here on commodity weekfrom Illinois Public Media.
(27:06):
What's your final word for theday, Logan?
Logan Kimmel (27:09):
Talked a little bit on some outside markets.
One, I forgot to mention that Ithink it's important for in the
grain industry for folks to bewatching here is the U. S.
Dollar. It started to creep backup here and reverse on the
month.
Guess it makes it that much moreimportant going forward for
marketing opportunities, know,take advantage of them because a
(27:33):
dollar moving back higher mightbe a headwind here in the grain
markets for producers.
Todd Gleason (27:39):
And finally, Ellen Dearden from AgReview out of
Morton, Illinois. Your finalword for the day.
Ellen Dearden (27:44):
I noticed that the most recent, drought monitor
for The US shows a shrinkingarea of drought and dryness on
both corn and beans this week.However, at the same time,
Mexican drought seems to beholding on. If that Mexican
drought expands, watch for, moreexports in corn to Mexico even
(28:07):
even with the good good onesalready on the book.
Todd Gleason (28:10):
Commodity week, of course, is a production of
Illinois Public Media. It'spublic radio for the farming
world. You may listen to thewhole of the program anytime
you'd like at willag.org,willag.0rg. Our thanks go to our
panelists this week includingLogan Kimmel, Ellen Dearden, and
Matt Bennett. I'm University ofIllinois Extension's Todd Lewis.
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