November 6, 2025 • 28 mins
Panelists
- Greg Johnson, TGM TotalGrainMarketing.com
- Logan Kimmel, RoachAg.com
- Sherman Newlin, RMCommodities.com
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
This is the November 6 edition of Commodity Week.
(00:09):
Todd Gleason's services are madeavailable to WILL by University
of Illinois Extension. Welcometo Commodity Week. I am Todd
Gleason. Our panelists for theday include Greg Johnson.
He's with TGM. That's TotalGrain Marketing here in
Champaign County, Illinois.Logan Kimmel joins us from Roach
Ag in Naperville, Illinois. AndSherman Newland is here from
Risk Management Commodities.That's a division of Zaner Ag
(00:32):
Hedge.
He is out of Hudsonville,Illinois. Thanks much for being
with us, to each of you. Let'sget some information from you
about what we should discuss forthe day. Sherman, let's begin
with you. What's on your mind?
Speaker 2 (00:46):
Well, have been quite a few things in news here
recently, haven't there? I mean,obviously, it's the big bean
rally. What should producers bedoing with it? You know, can we
continue the rally, or is thisthing over with? Are we going to
see a pullback?
You know, and then we got thecrop report next week. We got to
(01:06):
deal with that and see what thatcomes out with. So there's a lot
of things that are coming up,you know, that producers need to
be aware of and maybe takeadvantage of some of these
opportunities.
Speaker 1 (01:16):
Logan Kimmel at Roach Ag on your list.
Speaker 3 (01:18):
Yeah. I think, top of the list would be, just what
Sherman said, opportunities thatwe see available to producers
now that you've had a nice rallyled by the beans. What does that
look like for bushels that maybeweren't marketed versus a month
ago and what you can be doing upat these levels even after
(01:42):
today, as well as starting tosit down and possibly look at
some twenty twenty six ideas andstrategies given the rally we've
had there as well.
Speaker 1 (01:52):
And from you, Greg Johnson at TGM.
Speaker 4 (01:54):
Well, in addition to what Sherman mentioned on the
USDA crop report next Friday, Ithink another government report
that has not been released dueto the shutdown is the
commitment of traders report andI think the market is kind of,
you know, feeling its wayaround, you know, to have the
the has the managed money whichwas short prior to the
(02:15):
government shutdown. Have theybought back their positions?
Have they gone long? We reallydon't know for sure and I I
think that uncertainty helps usin a way. It leads to higher
highs on days when the whenthere's good news.
You know, it it can lead tolower lower prices on, you know,
exaggerated lows on days when wehave some negative news. But I
think that's one thing that themarket has not quite figured out
(02:39):
yet. And then the other thing isthe Supreme Court is taking up,
hearings on, whether, Trump hasthe authority to, impose all
these tariffs in nonemergencysituations, or is this really an
emergency? And so what impactwould that have if the Supreme
Court rules one way or theother, on whether those tariffs
(03:00):
are, in the in the Trumpwheelhouse, as far as, his
ability to put those on othercountries? So I think those are
two things that we should talkabout as well.
Speaker 1 (03:11):
USDA, of course, was set or should have been set on
Monday to release the worldagricultural supply and demand
estimates along with theNovember crop production report.
It will be released instead onFriday, the fourteenth next
week. And then the commitment oftraders has not been released,
(03:32):
and I don't think that's on thelist of items that will be
coming out from USDA USDA unlessI've not unless I've simply
missed it. Greg, is am I correctin that?
Speaker 4 (03:43):
You are correct. And like I say, that leads to, quite
a bit more, I think, uncertaintyin the marketplace.
Speaker 1 (03:48):
With higher highs and lower lows, we'll get to that in
a moment. I will remind you thatcoming up in the month of
December, if you visit ourwebsite at willag.org,
willag.0rg, you will find a wayright now to sign up for the
December 12 farm assetsConference to be held in
Bloomington. This is part of thePharmDoc team conference series
(04:08):
over the week or over the wintermonths. A full day's event. You
can find all the details for it.
The cost is $80. Registration isavailable today at willag.org
for it and along with theIllinois Farm Economic Summits,
which will take place across thestate. We'll start with farm
(04:29):
assets December 12 on a Friday,and then on Monday, we'll be in
DeKalb with the Illinois FarmEconomic Summits. We'll move to
East Peoria on Tuesday thatweek. And on the December 17,
we'll be in Mount Vernon.
You can sign up for any or allof those at w I l l a g dot o r
g. So let's pick up where weleft off. You were talking about
(04:52):
higher highs and lower lowerslower lows, Greg. The move on
Thursday was pretty sharp,though certainly not near a,
full move for any single day,potentially. Do you think that
it, was exacerbated by the lackof the ability of of folks to
(05:13):
know where traders arecommitted?
Speaker 4 (05:15):
Yes. I I I think so. And I think the other thing is
what's the interpretation of theframework trade agreement that
The US and China signed?Depending on who you listen to,
the interpretation could meanthat China has to buy 12,000,000
metric tons this year and 35each of the following subsequent
three years or there's a clausein there supposedly that says,
(05:38):
if the market price isconducive, which means some
people think that means if SouthAmerican beans are cheaper than
China does not have to buy thebeans in those quantities from
The US. So obviously twodifferent interpretations with
huge, two huge different priceforecast.
If China has to buy those beans,sure feels like we could go
(06:00):
higher. If China is only gonnabuy beans if they're cheaper
than Brazil, maybe they don'tneed to go a whole lot higher at
this point.
Speaker 1 (06:07):
Sherman Newlin, as we heard during the closing market
report on Thursday afternooneven with the losses on
Thursday, soybeans in Brazilwere still 20¢ below those of
The United States. Is this of aconcern for you?
Speaker 2 (06:21):
I mean I mean, well, China went out and bought 20
cargoes of beans for Decemberhere just a day or two ago. I
mean, so yeah, I mean, to Greg'spoint, to me, you can't make
China buy necessarily. They maysay they're going to do
something, but I think you haveto watch what they do. And so
far, we really haven't seen themcome in and do a lot of buying.
(06:44):
And I think that's part of thereason we sold off today.
The market had a big run up.Hopefully producers took
advantage of that. Andtechnically we're getting pretty
overbought. And you throw on topof that what's going on with
SCOTUS and what was going on insome of these other markets that
concerned, like the stock marketwas selling off quite a bit
(07:07):
today. There's all kinds ofworries that's going on about
what might happen with thesetariffs.
So I just think the selloff wasjust probably due. I mean, is
the selloff over with? That'shard to say, but I sure do hope
producers took advantage of somesome of this big run up.
Speaker 1 (07:26):
Logan Kimmel, if they did not take advantage of it or
full of advantage of it, andthey're looking at a 26 or 28¢
loss in the marketplace, shouldthey still consider something?
Speaker 3 (07:40):
Yeah. Mean, I think one trend change here is this,
the volatility we've seen stepinto the bean market and the
swings in price. And then due toa couple of things, One, I mean,
there has to be rotations herein the money flow, COT reports
that we're not getting. But Ithink that's largely part of the
(08:03):
dollar rally we've seen on theboard, at least in the bean
market, causing gaps and downtwenty six set days. So if
you're a producer and we seeswings maybe back to the upside
and you haven't done anything onthis rally on your bean crop
that maybe you got put in townto store or start paying some
(08:27):
bills here for inputs.
This might be the opportunity toget caught up and increment up
your percent sold on the beanmarket given the trend change
that we've had. We kind ofbusted out of a year and a half
sideways, just go market rightup to the top end of that. So if
you've been waiting to sell,this would be the area, that
(08:49):
probably overbought, but thatsometimes presents opportunities
if you're holding on to cashgrain to get some of that
marketed after a dollar rally inthe beans.
Speaker 1 (08:59):
Greg Johnson, over the last two weeks, did
producers and maybe longer thanthat actually, manage to make
additional bean sales, or didthey stay pat?
Speaker 4 (09:07):
No, I think they've done a pretty good job of making
some sales on this rally. Thequestion is, what percent, you
know, if they were basically 0%sold prior to this rally, the
first month of harvest, theprice was still around $10 and
the DP charges, the carryingcharges were pretty prohibitive.
(09:31):
So I think a lot of peopledecided to sell beans across the
scale at $10 rather than paythose storage charges. And
obviously in hindsight they wishthey would have held on, but I
think a fair amount of beans gotsold at $10 and then when we hit
$11 cash, I think farmers did agood job of selling beans there
as well. So percentage wise, youknow, we may be 50% sold now on
(09:53):
soybeans.
And if a farmer is 50% sold,maybe he wants to wait and see
how this all plays out or atleast have offers in, because at
this point, with so muchuncertainty, could beans go 50¢
higher? Yes. Could they go adollar lower? Yes. So, with that
kind of a range and that kind ofuncertainty, maybe you just
revert back to, am I makingmoney at a certain level?
(10:15):
If I can get $11 beans sold andI grew 75 bushel beans, that's
$800 an acre gross. And if thatpays the bills, you know, we
can't try to predict the high ofthe market. That's just gonna be
impossible in this kind of ascenario. So maybe you just go
back to locking in a profit and,and moving on down the road.
Speaker 1 (10:33):
Sherman Newlin with the Center West Of Brazil
teetering on the place by whichthey might move into dry
conditions that impact them. Imean, they have been dry, but
they've not been impacted reallyyet. How do you talk to
producers about making soybeansales, if that's what you want
(10:54):
to do, that is?
Speaker 2 (10:55):
Right. I mean, yeah, we're see if they end up having
a weather problem down there ornot. I mean, acres are going to
expand. I I think their crop wasbigger last year than what
everybody thought, becausethey're still exporting beans
for December. So that's a bigcushion that they're going to
have.
And I think you have to look atit that way. The acreage
(11:16):
expansion that they're having,the yields that they've been
getting, yes, can we get aweather scare rally? Absolutely.
But, you know, I agree withGreg. I think you've got to have
some orders in up there for, youknow, old crop soybeans, you
know, at certain levels and justbe happy with those levels
because we're a dollar somethingoff our lows.
(11:37):
And, you know, a lot of beans, Ithink, did get sold over the
scale because there weren't, youknow, a lot of hope that we
could go up here this much, eventhough there's still it's better
than it was, but it's still notwhat I would call highly
profitable levels, but it isbetter than where it was at,
because I think a lot offarmers, at least in my part of
the world and parts of Illinois,didn't have the best yields for
(11:59):
soybeans. So that makes it evenharder. I know everybody wants
to get as much as they can fortheir soybeans, but we have to
be realistic and know that maybeChina won't come through with
this buying. Maybe the marketsells off because we don't see
any sales. So I think takingadvantage of this, whether
(12:20):
you're buying puts or makingsome cash sales, I think you
have to do something herebecause we could fall back down
$0.04 0 or $0.60 There's a gapdown there that could get
filled.
And then we just kind of maybeconsolidate until we see what
what China does do.
Speaker 1 (12:37):
We'll come back and talk about that more. There are
gap gaps there, either one ortwo, depending on which chart
you're looking at on soybeans.Greg Johnson, I do wanna talk
about harvest time sales goinginto harvest. In general, most
of those that we talked to werethinking, well, the marketplace
(12:58):
is telling you you probablyought to if you if you need
money after harvest, to marketcorn, as opposed to soybeans.
Also in the same breath saying,we understand that soybeans are
probably gonna be sold acrossthe scale.
How well did producers do atthat time in selling corn?
Speaker 4 (13:16):
I think farmers were a little bit more tight fisted
when it came to the cornmarketing. We saw much more
beans percentage wise sold inthe fall, and I think I've heard
that from other locations aswell. The corn, there's just a
little bit more fundamentalreason to be friendly corn. The
(13:36):
export demand, weekly exportnumbers continue to be very
good. We know that ethanoldemand export wise and domestic
usage is very strong.
And then as Sherman mentioned,you know, the will the USDA
lower the corn yield in Iowaspecifically and for The US in
general next Friday. So, there'sthree reasons right there why
(13:59):
and and and the fourth reason isSherman mentioned too that
Brazil is planted more beans.Well, they're planting more
beans. That means they'replanting less corn and here in
The US, I really believe thatwe'll see an increase in corn
acre in in bean acres nextspring here in The US and that
means less corn acres. Verysimilar to 2013, 2014, the last
(14:19):
time we had a high input costsand low corn prices, we had
95,000,000 acres of corn plantedin 2013.
We only had 90.5, 4,500,000 lessacres of corn in 2014. So the
market did respond, the farmersdid respond to the market
signals of high input costs andlow corn prices. And I'm not
(14:40):
predicting a 4,500,000 drop incorn acres, but it could be a
sizable decrease in corn acres.So for all those reasons, I
think farmers are a little bitmore willing to hold on to corn
and see what happens as we get,you know, get through, see what
the weekly exports are, see whatthat USDA yield number is next
Friday, and, you know, continueto see if input costs stay high
(15:04):
on corn or not.
Speaker 1 (15:04):
Logan Kimmel, how has Rocha Ag been managing their
corn sales through, the harvestseason?
Speaker 3 (15:10):
Yeah. We've been, incrementing, here, as as the
markets present someopportunities. And just to kind
of add to Greg's points, which Ithink are all valid. One other
thought we've kind of talked toproducers about corn, but also
beans would be the 2026marketing. Having an increment
(15:32):
sold at these levels now, likeon the beans for example, if we
do see an acreage shift likethat play out, the November 26
new crop soybean contract didspend some time above 11.
So if you felt this year withthe lack of opportunities maybe
undersold, if you're making yourfirst sale up at these prices
(15:56):
and that's your worst one fornext year on your bean crop, it
might be worth getting a startleaving yourself some room. But
that's just another idea,getting a stake in the ground
there for the new crop soybeans.I think when we look at the corn
as folks, most guys found binspace and are hanging tight here
(16:19):
looking for the basis to comearound, the futures to come
around. I think right now we'veran into a little resistance on
the old crop corn, at least onthe technical standpoint. Two
hundred day moving average.
The October highs, it seems likethis four fifty on the March has
been an area that's served asresistance. So making some sales
(16:40):
up here wouldn't be a bad ideaon old crop corn. Looking for
the market to, get a catalyst toget above this resistance. And I
think as mentioned before, ifthat happens, having target
orders in to make old cropsales, but also on 2026, that
might be a good market to dothat, given how much, how
(17:04):
volatile swings we've had offheadlines. If you have open
orders you sit down, this is agood time of the year to maybe
sit down and look at yourbudgeting.
What levels can you make money?What levels would you have
orders in to make those sales? Ithink this is a good time of the
year to sit down and put a plantogether to do so.
Speaker 1 (17:23):
I wanna follow-up with you for just a bit, Logan,
because if producers have beenlistening to the program here,
from Illinois Public Media, theclosing market report and
Commodity Week, both they havelikely heard many analysts say
soybeans don't spend much timein $11. When they go across $11,
(17:44):
they manage to move fairlyquickly, usually to 12 or maybe
not. So the question then iswhat fundamental reasons do you
support making $20.26 cash salesor sales of some sort, even on
paper for those soybeans, maybeeven for some corn, and are
(18:06):
there downside objectives thatyou would use with a producer to
say this is the risk that youhave at this point?
Speaker 3 (18:14):
Yeah, I mean there could be a number of catalysts
as we head into the winter. Onemost recent would be increased
China demand. We haven't reallyseen that. There's been chatter
of it. No signed deal yet.
But, you throw a weather problemin South America, that could be
a reason to propel beans, upthrough that $11 level to the
(18:38):
12. Certainly, I would think ifthere was a drought in South
America, that'd be achievable.If a producer is is worried
about that, there's there'sopportunities to still keep your
upside on the board after takingoff risk in the cash market. So
if you get a better and biggermarket, maybe beyond this $11 to
(19:00):
$12 range, There's still ways toparticipate in that with maybe
having a call option behind asale. But I think it is
important as the markets there'sbeen a trend change here in the
beans especially, to remindproducers that as we've seen a
dollar rally, it's usually agood spot to consider doing some
(19:21):
marketing.
And again, if you want to havethat upside still for weather
event this winter, or increasedChinese demand, there's still
ways to manage that. But cashsales, I think, are important
along the way.
Speaker 1 (19:32):
Sherman Nuland, as you've been getting some new and
different kinds of analyticscoming from Zener AG Hedge, what
are you hearing from them aboutthe Brazilian crop, the size of
that crop, what it means toprices at the CME Group?
Speaker 2 (19:48):
Well, I mean, yeah. I mean, like I said earlier, I
mean, Brazil is going to have alot more acres. They increase.
Right now, if they have the sizeof crop that some are
predicting, I mean, it's goingto put a lot more, just a lot
more beans out into the world,right? And they've really taken
(20:10):
over.
So I think that's going to beweighing on this market without
some sort of weather scare.China has been going down there
buying all their beans. Theydon't have to buy beans from us
the way it looks, honestly. Ifthey come here and buy some,
okay. But the numbers thatyou're talking about aren't any
(20:32):
more than what they have beenbuying in the past, which has
been way down from where theywere just a few years ago.
So it definitely helps. But ifthey don't come back in and buy,
then, you know, that'sdefinitely going to weigh on
this market, especially with thesize potential of what Brazil is
going to be coming with. So Ithink, yes, there is upside
(20:53):
potential. I mean, but I thinkit's going take some sort of
weather scare or something,either here next summer or there
in South America, to push ussignificantly higher. You guys
were talking a little bit about,you know, what are we going do
for next year?
I, personally, am going to bemore corn, next year. It does
work out better for me. You canget a better yield with corn.
(21:16):
Potentially, the last threeyears in a row, we've had a
drought in August that has justdecimated our soybean crop in a
lot of places. So I think a lotof guys are going to look at
this and say, Yeah, inputs arehigh, but I can still do better
with corn regardless because 60bushel beans and $10 price
(21:40):
doesn't work on my farm.
So I think there's that outthere that guys are going be
looking at. I do think therewill be an increase in bean
acres. I don't think the guysout west are going to plant, you
know, corn on corn. They hit ahome run this year. They got
corn, and they had some goodgrain out there.
So a lot of places had somereally good yields that
(22:02):
typically don't get. But I don'tthink they're going to, you
know, do that. So I do see anincrease in corn acres or I
mean, a decrease in corn acres,but probably not to the degree
that some may be thinking.
Speaker 1 (22:15):
Greg Johnson, can you take up soybean crush for me and
what demand looks likedomestically in The United
States? And if you could, and Idon't know that you have read or
thought very much about thearticle that the PharmDoc team
has written on what US EPA hasdone over the last six months
with three different decisionsthat they believe could push
(22:38):
demand for soybean oil from5,000,000,000 to 7,500,000,000
gallons, and and what thatreally kind of might mean for
the marketplace. They also havenot written their implications,
and I know enough about thisthat those implications may not
be as strong as what that that40 or 50% increase sounds like.
(23:02):
So have you gotten any thoughtsor read any more about those
kinds of things in domesticusage?
Speaker 4 (23:07):
Yes. The the crush numbers are definitely going up
domestically, you know, due tothe government policies. The
incentive is to, you know,produce as much renewable
biodiesel here in The US aspossible. The other thing is The
US has also stopped paying thedollar per gallon used cooking
(23:35):
oil. So so China and othercountries cannot get paid for
exporting their used cooking oilhere.
So that means that the domesticusers here have to use US
produced biodiesel. So that isalso helping the crush numbers
out here. So for a variety ofreasons, crush numbers are
(23:57):
definitely going to be stronger.Now the question is, has the
USDA lowered the export numberenough? They raised the crush
number but they haven't they'velowered the exports a little bit
but you know, do do they reallythink China's going to buy all
those beans this year?
In which case maybe that exportnumber is pretty close to being
(24:18):
accurate, or will that exportnumber have to come down, which
will offset some of thebullishness of the crush
numbers?
Speaker 1 (24:24):
It will be interesting to see in the Friday
WASDE Nick WASDE next weekwhether USDA changes the export
figures. They will accommodatethe 12,000,000 metric tons. I
suppose, I guess, that'sconsidered a policy in place.
Logan Kimmel, have you,developed at Roach Ag a balance
sheet for next week and itspredictions?
Speaker 3 (24:47):
Yeah, I think the biggest, you know, numbers to
look at obviously are going tobe the yield. And, you know,
given what the spreads havedone, the strength here in the
market, I wonder if the cornyield comes down. Big question
is how much? What effect did thelate to August dryness, have and
(25:11):
as well as disease pressure.Folks we're talking to, I think
have alluded to maybe the corncrop in certain areas not being
as good as maybe they thought atmiddle of summer.
The beans, tough to tell. Butthat's what I would look for is
possibly a slightly reduced cornyield and soybeans is a little
(25:34):
more of a toss-up. That mightstay pretty well where it's at,
from our our opinion here.
Speaker 1 (25:41):
Sherman, your balance sheet picks for next week?
Speaker 2 (25:45):
Yeah. I you know, you saw a lot of numbers come out
this week. Stones and and someof the others still in the
mid-180s. We're not going bethat high. I think we're going
to be 182, maybe 182.5 on corn.
Know, I think, like Logan said,I think the guys in the West are
hurt, and Iowa especially. AndIllinois, I think, needs to come
(26:11):
down as well. But, you know, Idon't think a 182 or three is
out of the question. Beans,again, that one's little bit
tougher. I mean, personally, Ithink it needs to be closer to
52, but I think, you know,you're probably going to see
something closer to 53 on theyield as far as that goes.
(26:32):
So I don't know if you're goingto, you know, from what I
understand, you know, they'retaking the same measures they've
always taken to come up withthese numbers. You know, the
plot data, the yield data, thesurveys are all going to be
handled like they've alwaysdone. So, hopefully, you know,
whether it is whether you likethe numbers or not, that's what
(26:54):
we're gonna have to trade.
Speaker 1 (26:55):
And, Greg Johnson, if you've got some WASTE figures
for me, that'd be great. If not,and or your final word for the
day.
Speaker 4 (27:02):
Yeah. USDA is using one eighty six point seven. I
agree with Sherman that maybeeventually we get to one eighty
two. I just don't think they'lldo that all in one fell swoop.
So I I could see them trimmingtwo, two and a half bushels off
of the corn estimate and maybe ahalf a bushel taking that from
53 and a half down to 53 andthen eventually maybe if the
(27:24):
crop really isn't there,adjusting those numbers downward
later on.
But for one month, I think two,two and a half bushels is a
pretty significant move. So Iguess I'm not looking for, the
the five bushel drop yet all inone fell swoop, but I think I
wouldn't be surprised if we seethat eventually.
Speaker 1 (27:41):
With that, we'll wrap things up. Thank you very much.
You've been listening, ofcourse, to Commodity Week from
Illinois Public Medium. It ispublic radio for the farming
world. Our thanks go to ourpanelists for the day.
They include Greg Johnson at TGMhere in Champaign County,
Illinois. Logan Kimmel of RoachAg out of Naperville, Illinois,
and Sherman Newlin of RiskManagement Commodities, a
(28:02):
division of Zinger Ag Hedge outof Hudsonville, Illinois. I'm U
of I Extension's Todd Gleason.
This is the November 6 edition of Commodity Week.
(00:09):
Todd Gleason's services are madeavailable to WILL by University
of Illinois Extension. Welcometo Commodity Week. I am Todd
Gleason. Our panelists for theday include Greg Johnson.
He's with TGM. That's TotalGrain Marketing here in
Champaign County, Illinois.Logan Kimmel joins us from Roach
Ag in Naperville, Illinois. AndSherman Newland is here from
Risk Management Commodities.That's a division of Zaner Ag
(00:32):
Hedge.
He is out of Hudsonville,Illinois. Thanks much for being
with us, to each of you. Let'sget some information from you
about what we should discuss forthe day. Sherman, let's begin
with you. What's on your mind?
Speaker 2 (00:46):
Well, have been quite a few things in news here
recently, haven't there? I mean,obviously, it's the big bean
rally. What should producers bedoing with it? You know, can we
continue the rally, or is thisthing over with? Are we going to
see a pullback?
You know, and then we got thecrop report next week. We got to
(01:06):
deal with that and see what thatcomes out with. So there's a lot
of things that are coming up,you know, that producers need to
be aware of and maybe takeadvantage of some of these
opportunities.
Speaker 1 (01:16):
Logan Kimmel at Roach Ag on your list.
Speaker 3 (01:18):
Yeah. I think, top of the list would be, just what
Sherman said, opportunities thatwe see available to producers
now that you've had a nice rallyled by the beans. What does that
look like for bushels that maybeweren't marketed versus a month
ago and what you can be doing upat these levels even after
(01:42):
today, as well as starting tosit down and possibly look at
some twenty twenty six ideas andstrategies given the rally we've
had there as well.
Speaker 1 (01:52):
And from you, Greg Johnson at TGM.
Speaker 4 (01:54):
Well, in addition to what Sherman mentioned on the
USDA crop report next Friday, Ithink another government report
that has not been released dueto the shutdown is the
commitment of traders report andI think the market is kind of,
you know, feeling its wayaround, you know, to have the
the has the managed money whichwas short prior to the
(02:15):
government shutdown. Have theybought back their positions?
Have they gone long? We reallydon't know for sure and I I
think that uncertainty helps usin a way. It leads to higher
highs on days when the whenthere's good news.
You know, it it can lead tolower lower prices on, you know,
exaggerated lows on days when wehave some negative news. But I
think that's one thing that themarket has not quite figured out
(02:39):
yet. And then the other thing isthe Supreme Court is taking up,
hearings on, whether, Trump hasthe authority to, impose all
these tariffs in nonemergencysituations, or is this really an
emergency? And so what impactwould that have if the Supreme
Court rules one way or theother, on whether those tariffs
(03:00):
are, in the in the Trumpwheelhouse, as far as, his
ability to put those on othercountries? So I think those are
two things that we should talkabout as well.
Speaker 1 (03:11):
USDA, of course, was set or should have been set on
Monday to release the worldagricultural supply and demand
estimates along with theNovember crop production report.
It will be released instead onFriday, the fourteenth next
week. And then the commitment oftraders has not been released,
(03:32):
and I don't think that's on thelist of items that will be
coming out from USDA USDA unlessI've not unless I've simply
missed it. Greg, is am I correctin that?
Speaker 4 (03:43):
You are correct. And like I say, that leads to, quite
a bit more, I think, uncertaintyin the marketplace.
Speaker 1 (03:48):
With higher highs and lower lows, we'll get to that in
a moment. I will remind you thatcoming up in the month of
December, if you visit ourwebsite at willag.org,
willag.0rg, you will find a wayright now to sign up for the
December 12 farm assetsConference to be held in
Bloomington. This is part of thePharmDoc team conference series
(04:08):
over the week or over the wintermonths. A full day's event. You
can find all the details for it.
The cost is $80. Registration isavailable today at willag.org
for it and along with theIllinois Farm Economic Summits,
which will take place across thestate. We'll start with farm
(04:29):
assets December 12 on a Friday,and then on Monday, we'll be in
DeKalb with the Illinois FarmEconomic Summits. We'll move to
East Peoria on Tuesday thatweek. And on the December 17,
we'll be in Mount Vernon.
You can sign up for any or allof those at w I l l a g dot o r
g. So let's pick up where weleft off. You were talking about
(04:52):
higher highs and lower lowerslower lows, Greg. The move on
Thursday was pretty sharp,though certainly not near a,
full move for any single day,potentially. Do you think that
it, was exacerbated by the lackof the ability of of folks to
(05:13):
know where traders arecommitted?
Speaker 4 (05:15):
Yes. I I I think so. And I think the other thing is
what's the interpretation of theframework trade agreement that
The US and China signed?Depending on who you listen to,
the interpretation could meanthat China has to buy 12,000,000
metric tons this year and 35each of the following subsequent
three years or there's a clausein there supposedly that says,
(05:38):
if the market price isconducive, which means some
people think that means if SouthAmerican beans are cheaper than
China does not have to buy thebeans in those quantities from
The US. So obviously twodifferent interpretations with
huge, two huge different priceforecast.
If China has to buy those beans,sure feels like we could go
(06:00):
higher. If China is only gonnabuy beans if they're cheaper
than Brazil, maybe they don'tneed to go a whole lot higher at
this point.
Speaker 1 (06:07):
Sherman Newlin, as we heard during the closing market
report on Thursday afternooneven with the losses on
Thursday, soybeans in Brazilwere still 20¢ below those of
The United States. Is this of aconcern for you?
Speaker 2 (06:21):
I mean I mean, well, China went out and bought 20
cargoes of beans for Decemberhere just a day or two ago. I
mean, so yeah, I mean, to Greg'spoint, to me, you can't make
China buy necessarily. They maysay they're going to do
something, but I think you haveto watch what they do. And so
far, we really haven't seen themcome in and do a lot of buying.
(06:44):
And I think that's part of thereason we sold off today.
The market had a big run up.Hopefully producers took
advantage of that. Andtechnically we're getting pretty
overbought. And you throw on topof that what's going on with
SCOTUS and what was going on insome of these other markets that
concerned, like the stock marketwas selling off quite a bit
(07:07):
today. There's all kinds ofworries that's going on about
what might happen with thesetariffs.
So I just think the selloff wasjust probably due. I mean, is
the selloff over with? That'shard to say, but I sure do hope
producers took advantage of somesome of this big run up.
Speaker 1 (07:26):
Logan Kimmel, if they did not take advantage of it or
full of advantage of it, andthey're looking at a 26 or 28¢
loss in the marketplace, shouldthey still consider something?
Speaker 3 (07:40):
Yeah. Mean, I think one trend change here is this,
the volatility we've seen stepinto the bean market and the
swings in price. And then due toa couple of things, One, I mean,
there has to be rotations herein the money flow, COT reports
that we're not getting. But Ithink that's largely part of the
(08:03):
dollar rally we've seen on theboard, at least in the bean
market, causing gaps and downtwenty six set days. So if
you're a producer and we seeswings maybe back to the upside
and you haven't done anything onthis rally on your bean crop
that maybe you got put in townto store or start paying some
(08:27):
bills here for inputs.
This might be the opportunity toget caught up and increment up
your percent sold on the beanmarket given the trend change
that we've had. We kind ofbusted out of a year and a half
sideways, just go market rightup to the top end of that. So if
you've been waiting to sell,this would be the area, that
(08:49):
probably overbought, but thatsometimes presents opportunities
if you're holding on to cashgrain to get some of that
marketed after a dollar rally inthe beans.
Speaker 1 (08:59):
Greg Johnson, over the last two weeks, did
producers and maybe longer thanthat actually, manage to make
additional bean sales, or didthey stay pat?
Speaker 4 (09:07):
No, I think they've done a pretty good job of making
some sales on this rally. Thequestion is, what percent, you
know, if they were basically 0%sold prior to this rally, the
first month of harvest, theprice was still around $10 and
the DP charges, the carryingcharges were pretty prohibitive.
(09:31):
So I think a lot of peopledecided to sell beans across the
scale at $10 rather than paythose storage charges. And
obviously in hindsight they wishthey would have held on, but I
think a fair amount of beans gotsold at $10 and then when we hit
$11 cash, I think farmers did agood job of selling beans there
as well. So percentage wise, youknow, we may be 50% sold now on
(09:53):
soybeans.
And if a farmer is 50% sold,maybe he wants to wait and see
how this all plays out or atleast have offers in, because at
this point, with so muchuncertainty, could beans go 50¢
higher? Yes. Could they go adollar lower? Yes. So, with that
kind of a range and that kind ofuncertainty, maybe you just
revert back to, am I makingmoney at a certain level?
(10:15):
If I can get $11 beans sold andI grew 75 bushel beans, that's
$800 an acre gross. And if thatpays the bills, you know, we
can't try to predict the high ofthe market. That's just gonna be
impossible in this kind of ascenario. So maybe you just go
back to locking in a profit and,and moving on down the road.
Speaker 1 (10:33):
Sherman Newlin with the Center West Of Brazil
teetering on the place by whichthey might move into dry
conditions that impact them. Imean, they have been dry, but
they've not been impacted reallyyet. How do you talk to
producers about making soybeansales, if that's what you want
(10:54):
to do, that is?
Speaker 2 (10:55):
Right. I mean, yeah, we're see if they end up having
a weather problem down there ornot. I mean, acres are going to
expand. I I think their crop wasbigger last year than what
everybody thought, becausethey're still exporting beans
for December. So that's a bigcushion that they're going to
have.
And I think you have to look atit that way. The acreage
(11:16):
expansion that they're having,the yields that they've been
getting, yes, can we get aweather scare rally? Absolutely.
But, you know, I agree withGreg. I think you've got to have
some orders in up there for, youknow, old crop soybeans, you
know, at certain levels and justbe happy with those levels
because we're a dollar somethingoff our lows.
(11:37):
And, you know, a lot of beans, Ithink, did get sold over the
scale because there weren't, youknow, a lot of hope that we
could go up here this much, eventhough there's still it's better
than it was, but it's still notwhat I would call highly
profitable levels, but it isbetter than where it was at,
because I think a lot offarmers, at least in my part of
the world and parts of Illinois,didn't have the best yields for
(11:59):
soybeans. So that makes it evenharder. I know everybody wants
to get as much as they can fortheir soybeans, but we have to
be realistic and know that maybeChina won't come through with
this buying. Maybe the marketsells off because we don't see
any sales. So I think takingadvantage of this, whether
(12:20):
you're buying puts or makingsome cash sales, I think you
have to do something herebecause we could fall back down
$0.04 0 or $0.60 There's a gapdown there that could get
filled.
And then we just kind of maybeconsolidate until we see what
what China does do.
Speaker 1 (12:37):
We'll come back and talk about that more. There are
gap gaps there, either one ortwo, depending on which chart
you're looking at on soybeans.Greg Johnson, I do wanna talk
about harvest time sales goinginto harvest. In general, most
of those that we talked to werethinking, well, the marketplace
(12:58):
is telling you you probablyought to if you if you need
money after harvest, to marketcorn, as opposed to soybeans.
Also in the same breath saying,we understand that soybeans are
probably gonna be sold acrossthe scale.
How well did producers do atthat time in selling corn?
Speaker 4 (13:16):
I think farmers were a little bit more tight fisted
when it came to the cornmarketing. We saw much more
beans percentage wise sold inthe fall, and I think I've heard
that from other locations aswell. The corn, there's just a
little bit more fundamentalreason to be friendly corn. The
(13:36):
export demand, weekly exportnumbers continue to be very
good. We know that ethanoldemand export wise and domestic
usage is very strong.
And then as Sherman mentioned,you know, the will the USDA
lower the corn yield in Iowaspecifically and for The US in
general next Friday. So, there'sthree reasons right there why
(13:59):
and and and the fourth reason isSherman mentioned too that
Brazil is planted more beans.Well, they're planting more
beans. That means they'replanting less corn and here in
The US, I really believe thatwe'll see an increase in corn
acre in in bean acres nextspring here in The US and that
means less corn acres. Verysimilar to 2013, 2014, the last
(14:19):
time we had a high input costsand low corn prices, we had
95,000,000 acres of corn plantedin 2013.
We only had 90.5, 4,500,000 lessacres of corn in 2014. So the
market did respond, the farmersdid respond to the market
signals of high input costs andlow corn prices. And I'm not
(14:40):
predicting a 4,500,000 drop incorn acres, but it could be a
sizable decrease in corn acres.So for all those reasons, I
think farmers are a little bitmore willing to hold on to corn
and see what happens as we get,you know, get through, see what
the weekly exports are, see whatthat USDA yield number is next
Friday, and, you know, continueto see if input costs stay high
(15:04):
on corn or not.
Speaker 1 (15:04):
Logan Kimmel, how has Rocha Ag been managing their
corn sales through, the harvestseason?
Speaker 3 (15:10):
Yeah. We've been, incrementing, here, as as the
markets present someopportunities. And just to kind
of add to Greg's points, which Ithink are all valid. One other
thought we've kind of talked toproducers about corn, but also
beans would be the 2026marketing. Having an increment
(15:32):
sold at these levels now, likeon the beans for example, if we
do see an acreage shift likethat play out, the November 26
new crop soybean contract didspend some time above 11.
So if you felt this year withthe lack of opportunities maybe
undersold, if you're making yourfirst sale up at these prices
(15:56):
and that's your worst one fornext year on your bean crop, it
might be worth getting a startleaving yourself some room. But
that's just another idea,getting a stake in the ground
there for the new crop soybeans.I think when we look at the corn
as folks, most guys found binspace and are hanging tight here
(16:19):
looking for the basis to comearound, the futures to come
around. I think right now we'veran into a little resistance on
the old crop corn, at least onthe technical standpoint. Two
hundred day moving average.
The October highs, it seems likethis four fifty on the March has
been an area that's served asresistance. So making some sales
(16:40):
up here wouldn't be a bad ideaon old crop corn. Looking for
the market to, get a catalyst toget above this resistance. And I
think as mentioned before, ifthat happens, having target
orders in to make old cropsales, but also on 2026, that
might be a good market to dothat, given how much, how
(17:04):
volatile swings we've had offheadlines. If you have open
orders you sit down, this is agood time of the year to maybe
sit down and look at yourbudgeting.
What levels can you make money?What levels would you have
orders in to make those sales? Ithink this is a good time of the
year to sit down and put a plantogether to do so.
Speaker 1 (17:23):
I wanna follow-up with you for just a bit, Logan,
because if producers have beenlistening to the program here,
from Illinois Public Media, theclosing market report and
Commodity Week, both they havelikely heard many analysts say
soybeans don't spend much timein $11. When they go across $11,
(17:44):
they manage to move fairlyquickly, usually to 12 or maybe
not. So the question then iswhat fundamental reasons do you
support making $20.26 cash salesor sales of some sort, even on
paper for those soybeans, maybeeven for some corn, and are
(18:06):
there downside objectives thatyou would use with a producer to
say this is the risk that youhave at this point?
Speaker 3 (18:14):
Yeah, I mean there could be a number of catalysts
as we head into the winter. Onemost recent would be increased
China demand. We haven't reallyseen that. There's been chatter
of it. No signed deal yet.
But, you throw a weather problemin South America, that could be
a reason to propel beans, upthrough that $11 level to the
(18:38):
12. Certainly, I would think ifthere was a drought in South
America, that'd be achievable.If a producer is is worried
about that, there's there'sopportunities to still keep your
upside on the board after takingoff risk in the cash market. So
if you get a better and biggermarket, maybe beyond this $11 to
(19:00):
$12 range, There's still ways toparticipate in that with maybe
having a call option behind asale. But I think it is
important as the markets there'sbeen a trend change here in the
beans especially, to remindproducers that as we've seen a
dollar rally, it's usually agood spot to consider doing some
(19:21):
marketing.
And again, if you want to havethat upside still for weather
event this winter, or increasedChinese demand, there's still
ways to manage that. But cashsales, I think, are important
along the way.
Speaker 1 (19:32):
Sherman Nuland, as you've been getting some new and
different kinds of analyticscoming from Zener AG Hedge, what
are you hearing from them aboutthe Brazilian crop, the size of
that crop, what it means toprices at the CME Group?
Speaker 2 (19:48):
Well, I mean, yeah. I mean, like I said earlier, I
mean, Brazil is going to have alot more acres. They increase.
Right now, if they have the sizeof crop that some are
predicting, I mean, it's goingto put a lot more, just a lot
more beans out into the world,right? And they've really taken
(20:10):
over.
So I think that's going to beweighing on this market without
some sort of weather scare.China has been going down there
buying all their beans. Theydon't have to buy beans from us
the way it looks, honestly. Ifthey come here and buy some,
okay. But the numbers thatyou're talking about aren't any
(20:32):
more than what they have beenbuying in the past, which has
been way down from where theywere just a few years ago.
So it definitely helps. But ifthey don't come back in and buy,
then, you know, that'sdefinitely going to weigh on
this market, especially with thesize potential of what Brazil is
going to be coming with. So Ithink, yes, there is upside
(20:53):
potential. I mean, but I thinkit's going take some sort of
weather scare or something,either here next summer or there
in South America, to push ussignificantly higher. You guys
were talking a little bit about,you know, what are we going do
for next year?
I, personally, am going to bemore corn, next year. It does
work out better for me. You canget a better yield with corn.
(21:16):
Potentially, the last threeyears in a row, we've had a
drought in August that has justdecimated our soybean crop in a
lot of places. So I think a lotof guys are going to look at
this and say, Yeah, inputs arehigh, but I can still do better
with corn regardless because 60bushel beans and $10 price
(21:40):
doesn't work on my farm.
So I think there's that outthere that guys are going be
looking at. I do think therewill be an increase in bean
acres. I don't think the guysout west are going to plant, you
know, corn on corn. They hit ahome run this year. They got
corn, and they had some goodgrain out there.
So a lot of places had somereally good yields that
(22:02):
typically don't get. But I don'tthink they're going to, you
know, do that. So I do see anincrease in corn acres or I
mean, a decrease in corn acres,but probably not to the degree
that some may be thinking.
Speaker 1 (22:15):
Greg Johnson, can you take up soybean crush for me and
what demand looks likedomestically in The United
States? And if you could, and Idon't know that you have read or
thought very much about thearticle that the PharmDoc team
has written on what US EPA hasdone over the last six months
with three different decisionsthat they believe could push
(22:38):
demand for soybean oil from5,000,000,000 to 7,500,000,000
gallons, and and what thatreally kind of might mean for
the marketplace. They also havenot written their implications,
and I know enough about thisthat those implications may not
be as strong as what that that40 or 50% increase sounds like.
(23:02):
So have you gotten any thoughtsor read any more about those
kinds of things in domesticusage?
Speaker 4 (23:07):
Yes. The the crush numbers are definitely going up
domestically, you know, due tothe government policies. The
incentive is to, you know,produce as much renewable
biodiesel here in The US aspossible. The other thing is The
US has also stopped paying thedollar per gallon used cooking
(23:35):
oil. So so China and othercountries cannot get paid for
exporting their used cooking oilhere.
So that means that the domesticusers here have to use US
produced biodiesel. So that isalso helping the crush numbers
out here. So for a variety ofreasons, crush numbers are
(23:57):
definitely going to be stronger.Now the question is, has the
USDA lowered the export numberenough? They raised the crush
number but they haven't they'velowered the exports a little bit
but you know, do do they reallythink China's going to buy all
those beans this year?
In which case maybe that exportnumber is pretty close to being
(24:18):
accurate, or will that exportnumber have to come down, which
will offset some of thebullishness of the crush
numbers?
Speaker 1 (24:24):
It will be interesting to see in the Friday
WASDE Nick WASDE next weekwhether USDA changes the export
figures. They will accommodatethe 12,000,000 metric tons. I
suppose, I guess, that'sconsidered a policy in place.
Logan Kimmel, have you,developed at Roach Ag a balance
sheet for next week and itspredictions?
Speaker 3 (24:47):
Yeah, I think the biggest, you know, numbers to
look at obviously are going tobe the yield. And, you know,
given what the spreads havedone, the strength here in the
market, I wonder if the cornyield comes down. Big question
is how much? What effect did thelate to August dryness, have and
(25:11):
as well as disease pressure.Folks we're talking to, I think
have alluded to maybe the corncrop in certain areas not being
as good as maybe they thought atmiddle of summer.
The beans, tough to tell. Butthat's what I would look for is
possibly a slightly reduced cornyield and soybeans is a little
(25:34):
more of a toss-up. That mightstay pretty well where it's at,
from our our opinion here.
Speaker 1 (25:41):
Sherman, your balance sheet picks for next week?
Speaker 2 (25:45):
Yeah. I you know, you saw a lot of numbers come out
this week. Stones and and someof the others still in the
mid-180s. We're not going bethat high. I think we're going
to be 182, maybe 182.5 on corn.
Know, I think, like Logan said,I think the guys in the West are
hurt, and Iowa especially. AndIllinois, I think, needs to come
(26:11):
down as well. But, you know, Idon't think a 182 or three is
out of the question. Beans,again, that one's little bit
tougher. I mean, personally, Ithink it needs to be closer to
52, but I think, you know,you're probably going to see
something closer to 53 on theyield as far as that goes.
(26:32):
So I don't know if you're goingto, you know, from what I
understand, you know, they'retaking the same measures they've
always taken to come up withthese numbers. You know, the
plot data, the yield data, thesurveys are all going to be
handled like they've alwaysdone. So, hopefully, you know,
whether it is whether you likethe numbers or not, that's what
(26:54):
we're gonna have to trade.
Speaker 1 (26:55):
And, Greg Johnson, if you've got some WASTE figures
for me, that'd be great. If not,and or your final word for the
day.
Speaker 4 (27:02):
Yeah. USDA is using one eighty six point seven. I
agree with Sherman that maybeeventually we get to one eighty
two. I just don't think they'lldo that all in one fell swoop.
So I I could see them trimmingtwo, two and a half bushels off
of the corn estimate and maybe ahalf a bushel taking that from
53 and a half down to 53 andthen eventually maybe if the
(27:24):
crop really isn't there,adjusting those numbers downward
later on.
But for one month, I think two,two and a half bushels is a
pretty significant move. So Iguess I'm not looking for, the
the five bushel drop yet all inone fell swoop, but I think I
wouldn't be surprised if we seethat eventually.
Speaker 1 (27:41):
With that, we'll wrap things up. Thank you very much.
You've been listening, ofcourse, to Commodity Week from
Illinois Public Medium. It ispublic radio for the farming
world. Our thanks go to ourpanelists for the day.
They include Greg Johnson at TGMhere in Champaign County,
Illinois. Logan Kimmel of RoachAg out of Naperville, Illinois,
and Sherman Newlin of RiskManagement Commodities, a
(28:02):
division of Zinger Ag Hedge outof Hudsonville, Illinois. I'm U
of I Extension's Todd Gleason.
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
My Favorite Murder with Karen Kilgariff and Georgia Hardstark
My Favorite Murder is a true crime comedy podcast hosted by Karen Kilgariff and Georgia Hardstark. Each week, Karen and Georgia share compelling true crimes and hometown stories from friends and listeners. Since MFM launched in January of 2016, Karen and Georgia have shared their lifelong interest in true crime and have covered stories of infamous serial killers like the Night Stalker, mysterious cold cases, captivating cults, incredible survivor stories and important events from history like the Tulsa race massacre of 1921. My Favorite Murder is part of the Exactly Right podcast network that provides a platform for bold, creative voices to bring to life provocative, entertaining and relatable stories for audiences everywhere. The Exactly Right roster of podcasts covers a variety of topics including historic true crime, comedic interviews and news, science, pop culture and more. Podcasts on the network include Buried Bones with Kate Winkler Dawson and Paul Holes, That's Messed Up: An SVU Podcast, This Podcast Will Kill You, Bananas and more.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com