October 23, 2025 • 35 mins
Panelists
- Naomi Blohm, TotalFarmMarketing.com
- Ellen Dearden, AgReview
- Ted Seifried, Zaner.com
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Todd Gleason (00:00):
Todd Gleason services are made available to
WILL by University of IllinoisExtension. This is the October
23 edition of Commodity Week.I'm University of Illinois
Extension's Todd Gleason. We'rejoined today by Naomi Bloom.
She's at totalfarmmarketing.comout of West Bend, Wisconsin.
(00:22):
In Chicago, we're joined by TedSeifried. He's with Zaner Ag
Hedge, and we're also joinedtoday from Morton, Illinois by
Ellen Deirden of AgReview. Let'sturn our attention to exactly
what we'll talk about today. Ithink Ellen will start with you.
What kinds of items are on yourmind?
Ellen Dearden (00:42):
I sure would like to talk about BASIS because it
flashed, a bullish signal alltwo weeks ago. And, then the
spread started narrowing toanother you know, today on
Thursday, upside breakouts inboth corn and beans.
Todd Gleason (00:59):
Naomi Blohm at Total Farm Marketing on your
list.
Naomi Blohm (01:03):
Yeah, let's build up what Ellen was talking about.
In addition to funds buying backshort positions, of course, we
can't see the weekly view of it,but we can get a daily snapshot.
And I just feel like with thecheap value that we have for
these grain markets and thestrong export inspections that
we saw this week, I thinkthere's a lot of grain moving
(01:24):
and that demand is fantastic.
Todd Gleason (01:26):
And finally, Ted Seifried.
Ted Seifried (01:28):
Yeah. You know, certainly seen some strength in
basis, which is interesting whenyou're, you know, moving along
through harvest. Generallyspeaking, that means that maybe
crops weren't quite as big asexpected or that demand is
stronger than expected. Althoughin the case of soybeans, that'd
be a tough argument to make, Ibelieve. And then, you know,
speaking of soybean demand,there were talks that, maybe
(01:51):
China was in there buying sometoday.
And it was a very specificnumber, over 1,000,000 metric
tons. And with the specific,with with the how specific that
that number was, it I don'tknow. Maybe sounds like that is
the case. The problem with thatis I don't know how we'll know
for sure with the lack of, anygovernment reporting on export
sales.
Todd Gleason (02:11):
So let's take up the basis part first. Ellen
Dearden of AgReview, talk to meabout these bullish trends in
the corn market as it's relatedto basis and the spreads.
Ellen Dearden (02:21):
Well, on the basis side of things, our basis
in Central Illinois, let's talkcorn right now, has gone from
about, 35 under to about 25under. And I would say in my
neighborhood around Peoria thatthe corn harvest is 95%
(02:43):
complete. On the bean side ofthings we're looking at basis
that is, oh, had been at thewidest probably 45 under and is
now 25 or 30 under. Andinterestingly the river bids are
good and the processor bids areeven better. So, we're seeing a
(03:07):
real move in basis in areaswhere harvest is really winding
down rapidly.
That may not be the case whenyou look at areas that have a
lot to harvest yet.
Todd Gleason (03:19):
Well, I'm wondering about the demand side
of this. What's the pull in themarketplace? In our area in
Illinois? Why do you supposebasis is at this point really,
narrowing up?
Ellen Dearden (03:35):
Well, we're seeing these processor margins
really good and especially onthe bean side of things. Bean
harvest kind of wrapped up earlyand people probably sold the
first bushels across the scalesand took the rest and put them
put those at home. So beansaren't going to move here other
(03:55):
than seeing commercially ownedbeans that'll go be moving on
this bump up in basis. But onthe corn side of things, I think
we're seeing the river bids haveimproved when we, despite the
fact that we've got low waterand some barge restrictions, we
still see these river bidsstrong on corn. So they have to
(04:16):
buy from the, ethanol demand,for corn as well.
Again, we're not seeing a bigflush of farmer selling in the
corn side of things either. Ithink home storage was empty to
start out the year and so therewas plenty of bin space on farm
to to hit this crop, hit I putthe crop right back in the bin.
Todd Gleason (04:39):
So Ted Seifried, the futures market sometimes,
particularly during the middleof a government shutdown when
there are not USDA reportsreleased, has difficulty,
especially during this timeframe. And really, only other
time that we have a goodexperience was during the first
Trump administration, thirtyfive days during the fall,
(05:01):
finding a path through themarket, and basis is where they
turn. I'm wondering how you seethis basis, particularly for
corn, soybeans too, as itdivides east and west across the
Corn Belt.
Ted Seifried (05:15):
Yeah. You know, obviously, you know, the river
is the the main thing thatdetermines that for corn because
the corn demand or the bigbright spot in corn demand right
now is certainly export demand.And so, you know, when you look
at the far western reaches ofthe Corn Belt, it's, you know,
maybe not, quite as strongthere. You also have, I'm gonna
(05:36):
say, better yields, out that waytoo. I think the big surprise
that was coming in Illinois ispart of the reason why you're
seeing that basis kinda comeback in a little bit better or
earlier than expected.
And so yeah. I mean, look. Corndemand is is good. Yes. There
was a lot of corn acres thisyear.
(05:57):
Yes. There I'm gonna still sayit is a pretty decent yield even
though probably well off of whatthe USDA's expectations were.
We're gonna have to wait a whileto find out what their their
current expectations are. Butwith corn demand being good,
you've got a lot of, competingdemand points between ethanol
plants and, you know, the riverand and export, that is keeping
(06:18):
that fairly strong.
Todd Gleason (06:19):
Did you say big surprise in Illinois? And if
that's the case, what was it?
Ted Seifried (06:24):
You know, I I think Illinois has come in well
below what the last look at wehad, for the USDA's, yields.
Yeah. Again, that was inSeptember. You know, a lot may
have changed within the USDA. Wewon't know or who knows actually
when the next report's going tobe from from them.
But the Illinois numbers,especially Southern Illinois, I
(06:46):
think a for the most part, havebeen coming in a lot lower than
what had been expected a monthand a half ago. So, yeah, it'll
be interesting to see how thatreflects on AUSDA's national
average yield if and when we getto see that again.
Todd Gleason (07:01):
And, Naomi Bloom, you did mention this up front
and the things you wanted totalk about saying grain is
moving. Demand is fantastic,particularly for corn. What are
you thinking?
Naomi Blohm (07:11):
Yeah. Here's what I liked about corn this week. So
on Monday, USDA released theirweekly export inspection report
and corn bookings for the weekending October 16 at 1,300,000
metric tons near the high end ofthe range and in bushels, That's
like 97,000,000 above theseasonal pace that was needed to
(07:32):
reach USDA's already huge, largetarget. So this is actually the
second best week of corn exportinspections since 1982. That's
from DTN.
So we have strong demand forproduct, even though we're not
seeing what the weekly salesare. We are exporting product.
Then also this week we had ourethanol report, weekly ethanol
(07:55):
report, and that jumped to 1,100barrels a day and three twenty
seven million gallons for theweek. So production was above
expectations. A new marketingyear high, 111,000,000 bushels
of corn used in the productionprocess.
So we have strong export demand.We have strong ethanol demand.
(08:16):
And to Ted's point, you know,basis is is strengthening in
different parts of the country.If there's a lot of processing
facilities there or near theriver, if they need to get
product down the river, we'veseen basis levels at The Gulf
stay stronger in general. Sothat's really exciting.
And the other thing, it's notjust the corn market, the wheat
(08:36):
market. We had great weeklyexport inspections this week at
480,000 tons, up from 447,000tons last week. And marketing
year to date wheat inspectionsare 20% higher than the same
period last year. They're at11,100,000 tons versus 9.3 a
(08:57):
year ago. So people are buyingwheat.
I heard a rumor today too, I sawit on the newswire, that maybe
China was buying wheat today.And to me, that makes sense.
That's been really, really rainyin portions of China for the
ending part of September andearly October. And in general,
just with this wrapping up cornharvest, they were worried about
(09:18):
quality. So if China is maybebuying wheat, that's a way for
them to secure feed.
It's a way for them to not spookthe market because if it came
out that China was buying corn,everybody would be really
excited. So the demand for theirthe demand for for feed is
fantastic, and the demand for USgrain is there.
Todd Gleason (09:37):
And, Ted Seifried, on the demand side, and we'll
just stay with grains andoilseeds. China, as mentioned,
may have been in the market forsoybeans as well. What do we
know about that?
Ted Seifried (09:51):
Yeah. So there there were some reports coming
earlier today that China mayhave bought 1,260,000 metric
tons of US soybeans. Nothingconfirmed on that, but we have
some contacts in China that saidthat actually really could be
the case. The problem is we'renot gonna really know if and
when or we're not gonna know ifit's the case or not, I don't
(10:14):
think. I mean, we don't have ourour daily flash sales.
We don't have our weekly exportsales figures. So it's gonna be
very difficult to actually lockthat down until it actually
shows up on an inspectionsreport, which may be weeks from
now, if at all. The thing isthat there does seem to be a
little bit of a window whereChina might need to fill some
needs between where they havebooked now, which is pretty much
(10:37):
through the November. They justbought some argent more
Argentinian cargos the lastweek, until they get into the
Brazilian first season, soybeansreally starting in January. So
that month of December is reallya question mark.
So that 01/1926, I mean, that'sprobably right around the number
(10:58):
or maybe about half of what theymight need for the month of
December. It would potentiallymake sense. The timing of it,
though, in front of a meetingwith Chinese president Xi and US
president Trump nine days fromtoday does make you kinda wonder
if they would wanna do thatbefore the meeting or after. But
either way, you know, it itwe're in that time frame, Todd,
(11:21):
where we don't have anygovernment reporting. So rumors
like these are gonna be verydifficult to confirm or deny
until until, again, we seeexport inspections, but that
could be weeks from now.
Todd Gleason (11:33):
Okay. So I wanna ask each of you to talk about,
the clientele you've discussedtheir corn and soybean yields
with, and if what you're hearingfrom them lines up with what you
are hearing across the board. SoI and the way I think about this
sometimes is if I don't hearanything, it's better than
(11:55):
expected. And, honestly, I'venot heard much, but I don't talk
to a lot of producers. I thinkyou talk to them.
I know you talk to many morethan I do. So, Ellen Dearden,
what have you heard fromdifferent parts of the country?
Ellen Dearden (12:08):
Well, most of my clientele is from Central
Illinois West. So, what I'mhearing is from the guys that
are done or nearly done is thatthe both corn and bean yields
are really good. And when we'retalking really good, we're
talking about record or nearrecord all farm yields, even in
(12:33):
Central Illinois. As in areaswhere only half the crop is in,
they're a little more suggestivethat there were some real issues
in their corn crop and that'sprimarily from Eastern Nebraska
and Western Iowa. But again,pretty decent bean yields.
Todd Gleason (12:53):
Naomi Plum.
Naomi Blohm (12:54):
My clients are telling me a different story.
Usually every year if I'm askingmy customers, hey, what's going
on with your harvest? They'llsay, well, mine's okay, but if
you go 20 miles down the road,it's not good. And if I hear
that, I know things are fine.And I have not heard that once
this year.
What I am hearing from Iowa isthat their yields, because of
(13:16):
the Southern rust and they onlysprayed once in a lot of cases,
is that yields are 20 bushelsbelow last year. I have one
client in Northwest Iowa whosprayed three times and he's got
his best yields ever, but thatis only one. And then today I
talked with a client inNortheast Nebraska who is just
(13:38):
traditionally has no irrigation.But for him, he had his best
yield ever because they actuallyhad rain there this year. And
then one client in Minnesotasaid that he was just average
with corn.
But for the most part, myclients range from Nebraska to
Ohio down into Oklahoma, andonly three have said that they
(14:02):
are pleased with their cornyields. Everyone else is
disappointed. On the soybeanside of things, though, I will
say that most folks are sayingthat it's coming in average or
as expected and not a lot of,issues there, except in portions
of Ohio and portions of Indianawhere it had gotten to be a
little bit drier in August.
Todd Gleason (14:22):
And Ted Seifer from Zaner Ag Hedge. What are
your clients telling you?
Ted Seifried (14:26):
Yeah. You know, I I think, Ellen hit the nail on
the head there. The earlierharvested and therefore probably
the earlier planted corn, Ithink was coming in really very
well because it largely avoidedthat dry August, or or, you
know, kinda had moved past itskey moisture sensitive time
frame. And also, you know, maybethe disease pressures came in a
(14:48):
little bit too late, to havethat much of an impact. But the
corn that is getting harvested abit later, there's a bit more
concern about.
And it is very spotty, and it'sreally depending on what we put
down for inputs, and that canvary from one field to the next
even with the same sameproducer. So the the the corn
(15:09):
yields, I think, are are reallyall over the map. It's very
difficult to get a handle on theoverall national average, I
think, for corn. For soybeans,kind of the same thing. Again,
those earlier planted, earlierharvested soybeans, I think did
a little bit better because,again, that dry August,
certainly is is a problem forsoybeans.
(15:30):
I mean, August is the month, forsoybean moisture needs. And I
gotta say, I I think from whatI've heard from most of my guys,
clients, and other guys that Italked to, I think we're a
little bit disappointed in insoybean yields as a whole.
Especially my guys up in theDakotas, you know, even the ones
that were able to miss out onthe the frost event that
(15:52):
happened in September, stillthey're they're still trying to
figure out what it was, buttheir soybean yields had come in
quite a bit below what theirexpectations were. They're
wondering if it had to do withthe the Canadian wildfires and
just lack of of clean sunlight.But, yeah, I worry a little bit
(16:12):
about that bean yield.
The question is is is it gonnamatter? Are we gonna have the
demand, to to to fill out theother side of the balance sheet
or not? But, yeah, the beans, Ithink, may have come in a bit
disappointing for for a lot ofguys.
Todd Gleason (16:26):
Okay. So, Ellen, I wanna turn to you and demand
from the river system,particularly for corn, because
at this time of year, normally,we would be moving a lot of
soybeans. I don't think that'sthe case. And I'm wondering
whether that makes a differencein the way you think about the
(16:47):
demand and the basis changes inyour part of the world and
whether producers should orshould not be taking advantage
of them and what it might meanlonger term for this marketing
year.
Ellen Dearden (17:01):
Well, as long as the corn demand at The Gulf
remains pretty strong, I thinkwe'll see basis remain strong
because ethanol demand is sureheld together nicely. But, this
market too can hit into a railmarket that goes to the
Southwest and then on to Mexico.So we're seeing demand from that
(17:24):
sector of the market too inWestern Part Of Illinois. I
think that demand will remainstrong on corn all the way
through the first of the year,maybe well into the spring. Bean
demand is really going to bevery dependent on Asia but
particularly China, So I'm notsure where that'll go.
Todd Gleason (17:45):
A secondary question, because I usually, and
because of where we are, thinkabout the Mississippi, the
Illinois, the Ohio, even theMissouri moving corn to the
ports of New Orleans. But if youget far enough to the West parts
of Minnesota, the Dakotas, corncan move out of the PNW, and I'm
(18:08):
pretty certain that that's beenthe case going to some of the
Asian nations. Do we think and,Naomi, I'm gonna guess that you
might have a handle on this,that that has been a strong
demand pull as well?
Naomi Blohm (18:21):
I am actually not totally sure. I know that the
basis for the beans up in NorthDakota continues to stay wider.
It has narrowed in some portionsbecause the processing
facilities there and the newprocessing facilities are able
to pick up some of the slack.But I haven't heard too much
about corn basis. I would saythat for most of my clients, we
(18:45):
chat about it, they've beensaying it's a little bit of a
normal wide at harvest for theirarea.
But now you've got me thinking,and I'm gonna do some digging on
that tomorrow for you, Todd.
Todd Gleason (18:56):
Alright. Thank you very much, and we'll talk to you
Tuesday during the closingmarket report about that. So Ted
Seifried, what do you thinkproducers should consider at
this time? And let's let'sdivide this, and each of you can
give me some options on it into,I've got corn left. It's gonna
go across the scale, and I'llhave a week to make a decision
(19:19):
about what to do with it.
Let's start there. And then withthat, that they have on the farm
and if they leave it in the ifthey leave it at the elevator
and take the in charge, how dothey handle those things? So why
don't you start with me, please,and we'll work our way around
through everybody.
Ted Seifried (19:36):
Yeah. You know, I I think for corn, you have to
kinda look at this time frameand say, you know,
Todd Gleason (19:43):
the
Ted Seifried (19:43):
lack of USDA reporting, the lack of of WASI
reports, yield reports, exportsales reports, things like that,
I think is actually maybebeneficial for corn right now.
For one, I think that207,000,000 bushels that we
found on old crop, endingstocks, surprisingly, has kinda
gotten swept under the carpet atthe moment or just sort of out
(20:04):
of sight, out of mind because wehave not seen that reflected on
a USDA's balance sheet. Thereports government shutdown
happened before they they wereable to get a chance to do that.
I I think, yeah, while you couldprobably take something off of,
the the national average yieldfor for corn, still probably
gonna be pretty good, especiallywith the amount of acreage that
(20:26):
we have. That productionnumber's probably gonna be very
solid.
So, yes, we have good demandright now, but I think the
production side is gonna be abit of a problem for corn. And
when we start seeing thesenumbers again, that might be a
big reminder. The other thingthat I'm concerned about for
corn is that South Americancrop. You know, Conab continues
to raise their corn crop thatthey they just harvested and
(20:48):
also raise their next crop thatthey're intending to plant here
pretty soon. And and that's alot of competition in the world.
And I'm worried that thatcompetition from last year's
corn crop is going to run intothe window of our typical corn
export season. I I'm worriedthat a lot of our corn exports
(21:08):
are a little bit front loadedhere, mainly because South
America has been very focused ongetting all the beans they can
to China that they have haddifficulty going full bore on
their corn exports, but thatwill kinda come along in that
that January through June timeframe where we usually enjoy,
sort of almost an exclusivewindow for our exports. So I I
(21:34):
think you look at this as anopportunity for corn. For
soybeans, I think it's a littlebit of a a diff more difficult
decision to make because, youknow, what happens, eight, nine
days from now in that meeting?Is there gonna be a big deal?
Is China gonna resume buying USbeans like normal? Problem is
we've missed a lot of thatexport window now. So in my
mind, you're gonna have to hearthat China is committing to
(21:56):
10,000,000 metric tons of USsoybeans here and now in order
to, you know, start to catch usback up to where we would be for
this time of year. And if thatdoesn't happen, you really have
to worry that there's a lot ofdownside potential for soybeans
because just the demand side ofthe the balance sheet is just
going to be a problem even ifyields come down. So, you know,
the other hand of that is thatif China does commit to, you
(22:18):
know, more beans and does startbuying aggressively with lower
yields, we could have a verytight balance sheet.
So it's a very, very difficultthing to try to predict in
beans. I think the best thing Iwould say though, use this
optimism that we have in themarket leading up to that
meeting, make some sales, andthen we can look for reownership
strategies in case we really doget some good business from
China and we do go sharplyhigher. But I I I think the big
(22:41):
strength in soybeans is here nowand up until that, meeting
happens. I'm worried that themarket's gonna be disappointed
with whatever comes out of thatmeeting.
Todd Gleason (22:50):
So Ellen Dearden, Ted's saying there's an
opportunity for both corn andsoybeans at the moment. What
kind of view do you have at themarketplace?
Ellen Dearden (22:57):
Well, I think the the big problem that I see on
corn is a 24¢, in charge to payfor commercial storage till the
first of the year. That's justtoo large for me to be dealing
with. I would much prefer toturn corn into cash, on at least
the overrun that you can't storeat home. And yeah, then you can
(23:21):
look at a re ownership strategyin either March or May options.
The bean side of things, I thinkthere is a little more upside
potential.
However, I'm going to really bewaiting to see the Treasury
Secretary's comments after hismeeting this week because if his
meeting is not fruitful with theChinese, then Trump's whatever
(23:44):
Trump says with g or if thatmeeting even takes place will be
old news. So I think you gottawait until the first of the week
to price out beans.
Todd Gleason (23:55):
Naomi Blohm, any thoughts for us?
Naomi Blohm (23:58):
Absolutely. If you're making any cash sales
here at harvest for whateverreason, do consider reowning it.
Corn and beans both, I feel thatthe prices come Christmas time
and into the new year are goingto be better than what they are
right now. There's an upsidedown head and shoulders
formation on the March corncontract, which points to a
(24:18):
swing objective higher closer tofour seventy five to four eighty
if we can get some additionalsupportive news to get the
market to go higher or if thefunds continue to buy back the
short positions. Now, I do thinkthat the 4.75 to 4.8 area in
March corn might be as good asit gets.
For prices to get higher thanthat, you're going to need to
see new demand coming in forexport sales. You're going to
(24:40):
need to see bad weatherhappening in South America, and
you're going to need to see abigger reaction of the funds to
be buyers. So in general, if weget to that four seventy five
area, should that come tofruition come Christmas or come
January, that is going to be apoint where if folks have corn
in the bins, that's where you'regoing to want be making some
(25:01):
more cash sales at that pricelevel. Same concept on the
soybeans, looking at reownership bull call spreads with
the March contract. That Marchsoybean contract has been
trading in a sidewaysconsolidation pattern for about
a year and a half.
And the longer the market tradesin a sideways pattern, the
bigger the price breakout isgoing to be down the road. So
there could be some upside thereif China comes in and does some
(25:22):
buying here. But of course, ifthey don't come in, as Ted's
point was earlier, the marketmight have a hard time getting
through the short termresistance area that we're at
right now. So to reward therally, especially on beans since
we are up about 50¢ off therecent lows, make some sales,
reown it with a fixed riskstrategy just in case the market
can go higher. But in general,I'm a little bit more optimistic
(25:47):
with these prices.
Todd Gleason (25:48):
And finally, I'd like to turn our attention to
policy coming out of WashingtonDC. President Trump this month
has been working to salvage theArgentine economy. The first
thing that happened, of course,was the announcement of a
$20,000,000,000 investment tosupport the Argentine peso that
(26:10):
turned out to be $40,000,000,000at this point. And at the same
time, Argentina then took offthe tax, something above 30%. I
think it's 33 and a half or 35%on soybeans.
And in four or five days, theysold about 40 cargo loads of
soybeans into the marketplacethat did not make, American crop
row agriculture very happy. Andthen on Sunday of this week, the
(26:36):
president suggested and saidthat they were going to import
Argentine beef into The UnitedStates to try to lower consumer
beef prices. An announcementeventually came that they're
hoping to bring in four timesthe quota that has been, in
place for beef coming into TheUnited States. The National
(26:57):
Cattlemen's Beef Association hasnot been happy. In fact, their
press release says cattlemen andwomen cannot stand behind
president Trump while heundercuts the future of family
farmers and ranchers byimporting Argentinean beef.
It is imperative, that POTUS andsecretary Rollins let the cattle
(27:19):
markets work withoutinterference. How has the market
in Chicago reacted to all ofthis? And I suppose, I'll start,
Ellen Dearden, with you.
Ellen Dearden (27:31):
You're starting with me just because we're
cattle people, aren't you?
Ted Seifried (27:35):
I am.
Ellen Dearden (27:36):
I I to tell you the truth, the 20,000 metric
tons to 80,000 metric tons isnot that big a deal but I think
the signal from the White Housethat, I'm gonna beat my chest
and look how good a guy I amthat, we've got the consumer
(27:57):
price for beef going to headlower. It is a kind of a kick in
the gut. And, I think that,Colin Woodall is really good
about saying that it doesundermine the family rancher,
family farmer and, the marketreaction was really difficult,
(28:21):
yesterday when we saw limit downmove in the feeder cattle. The
live cattle have been able tofind support on the nearby
months. But when we go back alittle further because that's
when we imports to start, not sogood.
So, I'm not in favor of thisaction. I think this is
(28:41):
intervention that doesn't needto be intervened on, but, I'm
just, you know, one small littlecattle lady out here in the
country.
Todd Gleason (28:49):
Colin Woodall is the chief executive officer of
the National Cattlemen's BeefAssociation. He and the
president of the BeefAssociation have not been kind
in the words there have beenexpressed as it's related to
this, Argentine beef import rowthat is taking place. Naomi
(29:10):
Bloom, what kinds of comments doyou have for me today on this
issue, if anything?
Naomi Blohm (29:15):
Yeah. Well, I mean, a few weeks ago, president Trump
had kind of gave his firstwarning shot saying he was aware
of high prices to the consumer.And then last week, sure, you
know, him talking aboutimporting Argentina beef, I
mean, to Alan's point, the80,000 metric tons isn't a huge
a lot, a huge amount. And I hadreported to my clients earlier
(29:37):
in the week that from Januarythrough July 2025, our US beef
imports were closer to 1,200,000tons and that's up nearly 30% on
the year. So our imports ingeneral from Brazil, Australia,
Uruguay, and Argentina werealready up.
(29:58):
It was just, I think that themarket picked up specifically on
this Argentina news because itwas a concrete number that came
out of the White House. But whenyou look at a monthly chart on
cattle, when you look at whereprices have been recently, we
hit a huge technical objectiveon a monthly chart with the
recent price highs that we'vehad. And so some profit taking
(30:21):
was, you know, I think, bound tohappen. Also, you know, cattle
producers and farmers, you aresavvy. There are marketing tools
that are available to help forprices going lower, just keeping
the politics out of it.
Use your marketing tools to helpprotect the value. Mean, we've
(30:43):
been talking for a year how thecattle prices have been going
higher, and at some point it'sgoing to fall. And so it's maybe
going to be now the high comingin because of what came out of
the White House, the differentcapacities with that multi point
plan that they releasedyesterday as well, that they're
going to try to ultimately bringprices down. As we all know,
(31:06):
it's a little bit different tobring the beef herd a lot of
growth just because of gestationcycles. It's a lot different
than eggs when President Trumpsaid he was going to bring the
price of eggs down.
But I think this is maybesomething that we all thought
eventually would come. We justdidn't know it would come with
(31:27):
this variety of news eventsswirling around it.
Todd Gleason (31:31):
And Ted Seifried.
Ted Seifried (31:32):
Yeah. You know, to agree with both Naomi and Ellen,
you know, 80,000 metric tons upfrom 20,000 metric tons is
really not much. In fact, it'swhat, three days of consumption?
In a year where, to Naomi'spoint, we're already up, what,
27, almost 30% in our in ourimports. And that that's not
(31:53):
interference in the marketsnecessarily.
That's how markets work. Right?If domestic prices are high and
we can look at other marketsthat, you know, we can buy beef
from, Australia in particular,Brazil's got the tariff on them
right now. We're gonna do that.Right?
So I I don't know. This is justmore of a function of that. It's
the whole point. It's the thethe news that it's getting, the
(32:16):
attention that Trump is givingto it, that's what we don't
really love. Right?
And and the idea that therecould be more things to come to
do this. And that that's whatthe market doesn't like. That's
what what cattle ranchers don'tlike to hear. But being honest,
I mean, talking to my cattleguys, I mean, for for months
now, they've been saying, Idon't know why we're so high.
(32:37):
Like, I I really wanna get moreinvolved in in hedge strategies
right now, but this is a runawaytrain, and I don't wanna be
margining this.
And puts are so very expensive.So I think, you know, the
strength that we've seen in thecattle market look. We like the
prices when we sell our animals,but we have a problem, I think,
with, you know, how to managerisk in these markets. And so
(32:58):
maybe this is is bringing usinto a time frame where that
becomes a little bit easier.And, the Argentinian thing in
and of itself is not going tomake or break our our beef
market, our cattle industry,anything like that.
It's just it's the point of itand the the public, the news
publications and and theattention that it's getting. In
the meantime, I think the biggerannouncement here today was that
(33:21):
the Mexican ag minister, willtravel to Washington next week,
to talk to, Claudia Steinbaumabout, you know, reopening the
border with Mexico. That is amuch, much bigger deal if that
happens. I mean, there's there'sa whole lot of animals that are
are backed up in Mexico thatwould be coming over the border
(33:42):
to start to replenish our herd,and that would be the the thing
that that ultimately wouldprobably put the highs in for
the cattle complex as a whole.Maybe not right away.
It takes some time. But that'sthe one that that I think poses
a bigger threat to USB prices.So I don't know. It's been a
(34:02):
long term bull market. You know,bull markets have a tendency to
ultimately fix themselves.
I guess the cliche is, you know,high prices are the cure for
high prices. That's not beenallowed to fix itself mainly
because of, the border beingclosed with Mexico, and to some
degree, the tariffs on Brazil.But if those things start to
change, especially the borderthing, that will start to,
(34:24):
again, maybe fix the highprices.
Todd Gleason (34:26):
And, Ellen Dearden, I'll close out the
program, and this part of theconversation coming back to you.
There is an eight to ten yearcycle in cattle, and it appears
we should be at the top of thatcycle, and should be about to
turn. I know you watch thesekinds of things. Where do you
suppose we are in it?
Ellen Dearden (34:47):
We are at the top. We are at the top, and I
was expecting to see it in thesummer and then work lower. Even
even on the short term, Ithought we ought to be working
lower in cattle here intoOctober, November, December. So
I think the big top's in.
Todd Gleason (35:07):
Commodity week, of course, is a production of
Illinois Public Media. That'spublic radio for the farming
world online on demand atwillag.org, where you can hear
this program in its entire team.Our thanks go to our panelists
today, including Ellen fromAgReview. She's in Morton,
Illinois. Naomi Bloom oftotalfarmmarketing.com out of
West Bend, West Wisconsin, andTed Seifried with Zaner AgHedge.
(35:32):
He is in Chicago. I'm Universityof Illinois Extension's Todd
Gleason.
Todd Gleason services are made available to
WILL by University of IllinoisExtension. This is the October
23 edition of Commodity Week.I'm University of Illinois
Extension's Todd Gleason. We'rejoined today by Naomi Bloom.
She's at totalfarmmarketing.comout of West Bend, Wisconsin.
(00:22):
In Chicago, we're joined by TedSeifried. He's with Zaner Ag
Hedge, and we're also joinedtoday from Morton, Illinois by
Ellen Deirden of AgReview. Let'sturn our attention to exactly
what we'll talk about today. Ithink Ellen will start with you.
What kinds of items are on yourmind?
Ellen Dearden (00:42):
I sure would like to talk about BASIS because it
flashed, a bullish signal alltwo weeks ago. And, then the
spread started narrowing toanother you know, today on
Thursday, upside breakouts inboth corn and beans.
Todd Gleason (00:59):
Naomi Blohm at Total Farm Marketing on your
list.
Naomi Blohm (01:03):
Yeah, let's build up what Ellen was talking about.
In addition to funds buying backshort positions, of course, we
can't see the weekly view of it,but we can get a daily snapshot.
And I just feel like with thecheap value that we have for
these grain markets and thestrong export inspections that
we saw this week, I thinkthere's a lot of grain moving
(01:24):
and that demand is fantastic.
Todd Gleason (01:26):
And finally, Ted Seifried.
Ted Seifried (01:28):
Yeah. You know, certainly seen some strength in
basis, which is interesting whenyou're, you know, moving along
through harvest. Generallyspeaking, that means that maybe
crops weren't quite as big asexpected or that demand is
stronger than expected. Althoughin the case of soybeans, that'd
be a tough argument to make, Ibelieve. And then, you know,
speaking of soybean demand,there were talks that, maybe
(01:51):
China was in there buying sometoday.
And it was a very specificnumber, over 1,000,000 metric
tons. And with the specific,with with the how specific that
that number was, it I don'tknow. Maybe sounds like that is
the case. The problem with thatis I don't know how we'll know
for sure with the lack of, anygovernment reporting on export
sales.
Todd Gleason (02:11):
So let's take up the basis part first. Ellen
Dearden of AgReview, talk to meabout these bullish trends in
the corn market as it's relatedto basis and the spreads.
Ellen Dearden (02:21):
Well, on the basis side of things, our basis
in Central Illinois, let's talkcorn right now, has gone from
about, 35 under to about 25under. And I would say in my
neighborhood around Peoria thatthe corn harvest is 95%
(02:43):
complete. On the bean side ofthings we're looking at basis
that is, oh, had been at thewidest probably 45 under and is
now 25 or 30 under. Andinterestingly the river bids are
good and the processor bids areeven better. So, we're seeing a
(03:07):
real move in basis in areaswhere harvest is really winding
down rapidly.
That may not be the case whenyou look at areas that have a
lot to harvest yet.
Todd Gleason (03:19):
Well, I'm wondering about the demand side
of this. What's the pull in themarketplace? In our area in
Illinois? Why do you supposebasis is at this point really,
narrowing up?
Ellen Dearden (03:35):
Well, we're seeing these processor margins
really good and especially onthe bean side of things. Bean
harvest kind of wrapped up earlyand people probably sold the
first bushels across the scalesand took the rest and put them
put those at home. So beansaren't going to move here other
(03:55):
than seeing commercially ownedbeans that'll go be moving on
this bump up in basis. But onthe corn side of things, I think
we're seeing the river bids haveimproved when we, despite the
fact that we've got low waterand some barge restrictions, we
still see these river bidsstrong on corn. So they have to
(04:16):
buy from the, ethanol demand,for corn as well.
Again, we're not seeing a bigflush of farmer selling in the
corn side of things either. Ithink home storage was empty to
start out the year and so therewas plenty of bin space on farm
to to hit this crop, hit I putthe crop right back in the bin.
Todd Gleason (04:39):
So Ted Seifried, the futures market sometimes,
particularly during the middleof a government shutdown when
there are not USDA reportsreleased, has difficulty,
especially during this timeframe. And really, only other
time that we have a goodexperience was during the first
Trump administration, thirtyfive days during the fall,
(05:01):
finding a path through themarket, and basis is where they
turn. I'm wondering how you seethis basis, particularly for
corn, soybeans too, as itdivides east and west across the
Corn Belt.
Ted Seifried (05:15):
Yeah. You know, obviously, you know, the river
is the the main thing thatdetermines that for corn because
the corn demand or the bigbright spot in corn demand right
now is certainly export demand.And so, you know, when you look
at the far western reaches ofthe Corn Belt, it's, you know,
maybe not, quite as strongthere. You also have, I'm gonna
(05:36):
say, better yields, out that waytoo. I think the big surprise
that was coming in Illinois ispart of the reason why you're
seeing that basis kinda comeback in a little bit better or
earlier than expected.
And so yeah. I mean, look. Corndemand is is good. Yes. There
was a lot of corn acres thisyear.
(05:57):
Yes. There I'm gonna still sayit is a pretty decent yield even
though probably well off of whatthe USDA's expectations were.
We're gonna have to wait a whileto find out what their their
current expectations are. Butwith corn demand being good,
you've got a lot of, competingdemand points between ethanol
plants and, you know, the riverand and export, that is keeping
(06:18):
that fairly strong.
Todd Gleason (06:19):
Did you say big surprise in Illinois? And if
that's the case, what was it?
Ted Seifried (06:24):
You know, I I think Illinois has come in well
below what the last look at wehad, for the USDA's, yields.
Yeah. Again, that was inSeptember. You know, a lot may
have changed within the USDA. Wewon't know or who knows actually
when the next report's going tobe from from them.
But the Illinois numbers,especially Southern Illinois, I
(06:46):
think a for the most part, havebeen coming in a lot lower than
what had been expected a monthand a half ago. So, yeah, it'll
be interesting to see how thatreflects on AUSDA's national
average yield if and when we getto see that again.
Todd Gleason (07:01):
And, Naomi Bloom, you did mention this up front
and the things you wanted totalk about saying grain is
moving. Demand is fantastic,particularly for corn. What are
you thinking?
Naomi Blohm (07:11):
Yeah. Here's what I liked about corn this week. So
on Monday, USDA released theirweekly export inspection report
and corn bookings for the weekending October 16 at 1,300,000
metric tons near the high end ofthe range and in bushels, That's
like 97,000,000 above theseasonal pace that was needed to
(07:32):
reach USDA's already huge, largetarget. So this is actually the
second best week of corn exportinspections since 1982. That's
from DTN.
So we have strong demand forproduct, even though we're not
seeing what the weekly salesare. We are exporting product.
Then also this week we had ourethanol report, weekly ethanol
(07:55):
report, and that jumped to 1,100barrels a day and three twenty
seven million gallons for theweek. So production was above
expectations. A new marketingyear high, 111,000,000 bushels
of corn used in the productionprocess.
So we have strong export demand.We have strong ethanol demand.
(08:16):
And to Ted's point, you know,basis is is strengthening in
different parts of the country.If there's a lot of processing
facilities there or near theriver, if they need to get
product down the river, we'veseen basis levels at The Gulf
stay stronger in general. Sothat's really exciting.
And the other thing, it's notjust the corn market, the wheat
(08:36):
market. We had great weeklyexport inspections this week at
480,000 tons, up from 447,000tons last week. And marketing
year to date wheat inspectionsare 20% higher than the same
period last year. They're at11,100,000 tons versus 9.3 a
(08:57):
year ago. So people are buyingwheat.
I heard a rumor today too, I sawit on the newswire, that maybe
China was buying wheat today.And to me, that makes sense.
That's been really, really rainyin portions of China for the
ending part of September andearly October. And in general,
just with this wrapping up cornharvest, they were worried about
(09:18):
quality. So if China is maybebuying wheat, that's a way for
them to secure feed.
It's a way for them to not spookthe market because if it came
out that China was buying corn,everybody would be really
excited. So the demand for theirthe demand for for feed is
fantastic, and the demand for USgrain is there.
Todd Gleason (09:37):
And, Ted Seifried, on the demand side, and we'll
just stay with grains andoilseeds. China, as mentioned,
may have been in the market forsoybeans as well. What do we
know about that?
Ted Seifried (09:51):
Yeah. So there there were some reports coming
earlier today that China mayhave bought 1,260,000 metric
tons of US soybeans. Nothingconfirmed on that, but we have
some contacts in China that saidthat actually really could be
the case. The problem is we'renot gonna really know if and
when or we're not gonna know ifit's the case or not, I don't
(10:14):
think. I mean, we don't have ourour daily flash sales.
We don't have our weekly exportsales figures. So it's gonna be
very difficult to actually lockthat down until it actually
shows up on an inspectionsreport, which may be weeks from
now, if at all. The thing isthat there does seem to be a
little bit of a window whereChina might need to fill some
needs between where they havebooked now, which is pretty much
(10:37):
through the November. They justbought some argent more
Argentinian cargos the lastweek, until they get into the
Brazilian first season, soybeansreally starting in January. So
that month of December is reallya question mark.
So that 01/1926, I mean, that'sprobably right around the number
(10:58):
or maybe about half of what theymight need for the month of
December. It would potentiallymake sense. The timing of it,
though, in front of a meetingwith Chinese president Xi and US
president Trump nine days fromtoday does make you kinda wonder
if they would wanna do thatbefore the meeting or after. But
either way, you know, it itwe're in that time frame, Todd,
(11:21):
where we don't have anygovernment reporting. So rumors
like these are gonna be verydifficult to confirm or deny
until until, again, we seeexport inspections, but that
could be weeks from now.
Todd Gleason (11:33):
Okay. So I wanna ask each of you to talk about,
the clientele you've discussedtheir corn and soybean yields
with, and if what you're hearingfrom them lines up with what you
are hearing across the board. SoI and the way I think about this
sometimes is if I don't hearanything, it's better than
(11:55):
expected. And, honestly, I'venot heard much, but I don't talk
to a lot of producers. I thinkyou talk to them.
I know you talk to many morethan I do. So, Ellen Dearden,
what have you heard fromdifferent parts of the country?
Ellen Dearden (12:08):
Well, most of my clientele is from Central
Illinois West. So, what I'mhearing is from the guys that
are done or nearly done is thatthe both corn and bean yields
are really good. And when we'retalking really good, we're
talking about record or nearrecord all farm yields, even in
(12:33):
Central Illinois. As in areaswhere only half the crop is in,
they're a little more suggestivethat there were some real issues
in their corn crop and that'sprimarily from Eastern Nebraska
and Western Iowa. But again,pretty decent bean yields.
Todd Gleason (12:53):
Naomi Plum.
Naomi Blohm (12:54):
My clients are telling me a different story.
Usually every year if I'm askingmy customers, hey, what's going
on with your harvest? They'llsay, well, mine's okay, but if
you go 20 miles down the road,it's not good. And if I hear
that, I know things are fine.And I have not heard that once
this year.
What I am hearing from Iowa isthat their yields, because of
(13:16):
the Southern rust and they onlysprayed once in a lot of cases,
is that yields are 20 bushelsbelow last year. I have one
client in Northwest Iowa whosprayed three times and he's got
his best yields ever, but thatis only one. And then today I
talked with a client inNortheast Nebraska who is just
(13:38):
traditionally has no irrigation.But for him, he had his best
yield ever because they actuallyhad rain there this year. And
then one client in Minnesotasaid that he was just average
with corn.
But for the most part, myclients range from Nebraska to
Ohio down into Oklahoma, andonly three have said that they
(14:02):
are pleased with their cornyields. Everyone else is
disappointed. On the soybeanside of things, though, I will
say that most folks are sayingthat it's coming in average or
as expected and not a lot of,issues there, except in portions
of Ohio and portions of Indianawhere it had gotten to be a
little bit drier in August.
Todd Gleason (14:22):
And Ted Seifer from Zaner Ag Hedge. What are
your clients telling you?
Ted Seifried (14:26):
Yeah. You know, I I think, Ellen hit the nail on
the head there. The earlierharvested and therefore probably
the earlier planted corn, Ithink was coming in really very
well because it largely avoidedthat dry August, or or, you
know, kinda had moved past itskey moisture sensitive time
frame. And also, you know, maybethe disease pressures came in a
(14:48):
little bit too late, to havethat much of an impact. But the
corn that is getting harvested abit later, there's a bit more
concern about.
And it is very spotty, and it'sreally depending on what we put
down for inputs, and that canvary from one field to the next
even with the same sameproducer. So the the the corn
(15:09):
yields, I think, are are reallyall over the map. It's very
difficult to get a handle on theoverall national average, I
think, for corn. For soybeans,kind of the same thing. Again,
those earlier planted, earlierharvested soybeans, I think did
a little bit better because,again, that dry August,
certainly is is a problem forsoybeans.
(15:30):
I mean, August is the month, forsoybean moisture needs. And I
gotta say, I I think from whatI've heard from most of my guys,
clients, and other guys that Italked to, I think we're a
little bit disappointed in insoybean yields as a whole.
Especially my guys up in theDakotas, you know, even the ones
that were able to miss out onthe the frost event that
(15:52):
happened in September, stillthey're they're still trying to
figure out what it was, buttheir soybean yields had come in
quite a bit below what theirexpectations were. They're
wondering if it had to do withthe the Canadian wildfires and
just lack of of clean sunlight.But, yeah, I worry a little bit
(16:12):
about that bean yield.
The question is is is it gonnamatter? Are we gonna have the
demand, to to to fill out theother side of the balance sheet
or not? But, yeah, the beans, Ithink, may have come in a bit
disappointing for for a lot ofguys.
Todd Gleason (16:26):
Okay. So, Ellen, I wanna turn to you and demand
from the river system,particularly for corn, because
at this time of year, normally,we would be moving a lot of
soybeans. I don't think that'sthe case. And I'm wondering
whether that makes a differencein the way you think about the
(16:47):
demand and the basis changes inyour part of the world and
whether producers should orshould not be taking advantage
of them and what it might meanlonger term for this marketing
year.
Ellen Dearden (17:01):
Well, as long as the corn demand at The Gulf
remains pretty strong, I thinkwe'll see basis remain strong
because ethanol demand is sureheld together nicely. But, this
market too can hit into a railmarket that goes to the
Southwest and then on to Mexico.So we're seeing demand from that
(17:24):
sector of the market too inWestern Part Of Illinois. I
think that demand will remainstrong on corn all the way
through the first of the year,maybe well into the spring. Bean
demand is really going to bevery dependent on Asia but
particularly China, So I'm notsure where that'll go.
Todd Gleason (17:45):
A secondary question, because I usually, and
because of where we are, thinkabout the Mississippi, the
Illinois, the Ohio, even theMissouri moving corn to the
ports of New Orleans. But if youget far enough to the West parts
of Minnesota, the Dakotas, corncan move out of the PNW, and I'm
(18:08):
pretty certain that that's beenthe case going to some of the
Asian nations. Do we think and,Naomi, I'm gonna guess that you
might have a handle on this,that that has been a strong
demand pull as well?
Naomi Blohm (18:21):
I am actually not totally sure. I know that the
basis for the beans up in NorthDakota continues to stay wider.
It has narrowed in some portionsbecause the processing
facilities there and the newprocessing facilities are able
to pick up some of the slack.But I haven't heard too much
about corn basis. I would saythat for most of my clients, we
(18:45):
chat about it, they've beensaying it's a little bit of a
normal wide at harvest for theirarea.
But now you've got me thinking,and I'm gonna do some digging on
that tomorrow for you, Todd.
Todd Gleason (18:56):
Alright. Thank you very much, and we'll talk to you
Tuesday during the closingmarket report about that. So Ted
Seifried, what do you thinkproducers should consider at
this time? And let's let'sdivide this, and each of you can
give me some options on it into,I've got corn left. It's gonna
go across the scale, and I'llhave a week to make a decision
(19:19):
about what to do with it.
Let's start there. And then withthat, that they have on the farm
and if they leave it in the ifthey leave it at the elevator
and take the in charge, how dothey handle those things? So why
don't you start with me, please,and we'll work our way around
through everybody.
Ted Seifried (19:36):
Yeah. You know, I I think for corn, you have to
kinda look at this time frameand say, you know,
Todd Gleason (19:43):
the
Ted Seifried (19:43):
lack of USDA reporting, the lack of of WASI
reports, yield reports, exportsales reports, things like that,
I think is actually maybebeneficial for corn right now.
For one, I think that207,000,000 bushels that we
found on old crop, endingstocks, surprisingly, has kinda
gotten swept under the carpet atthe moment or just sort of out
(20:04):
of sight, out of mind because wehave not seen that reflected on
a USDA's balance sheet. Thereports government shutdown
happened before they they wereable to get a chance to do that.
I I think, yeah, while you couldprobably take something off of,
the the national average yieldfor for corn, still probably
gonna be pretty good, especiallywith the amount of acreage that
(20:26):
we have. That productionnumber's probably gonna be very
solid.
So, yes, we have good demandright now, but I think the
production side is gonna be abit of a problem for corn. And
when we start seeing thesenumbers again, that might be a
big reminder. The other thingthat I'm concerned about for
corn is that South Americancrop. You know, Conab continues
to raise their corn crop thatthey they just harvested and
(20:48):
also raise their next crop thatthey're intending to plant here
pretty soon. And and that's alot of competition in the world.
And I'm worried that thatcompetition from last year's
corn crop is going to run intothe window of our typical corn
export season. I I'm worriedthat a lot of our corn exports
(21:08):
are a little bit front loadedhere, mainly because South
America has been very focused ongetting all the beans they can
to China that they have haddifficulty going full bore on
their corn exports, but thatwill kinda come along in that
that January through June timeframe where we usually enjoy,
sort of almost an exclusivewindow for our exports. So I I
(21:34):
think you look at this as anopportunity for corn. For
soybeans, I think it's a littlebit of a a diff more difficult
decision to make because, youknow, what happens, eight, nine
days from now in that meeting?Is there gonna be a big deal?
Is China gonna resume buying USbeans like normal? Problem is
we've missed a lot of thatexport window now. So in my
mind, you're gonna have to hearthat China is committing to
(21:56):
10,000,000 metric tons of USsoybeans here and now in order
to, you know, start to catch usback up to where we would be for
this time of year. And if thatdoesn't happen, you really have
to worry that there's a lot ofdownside potential for soybeans
because just the demand side ofthe the balance sheet is just
going to be a problem even ifyields come down. So, you know,
the other hand of that is thatif China does commit to, you
(22:18):
know, more beans and does startbuying aggressively with lower
yields, we could have a verytight balance sheet.
So it's a very, very difficultthing to try to predict in
beans. I think the best thing Iwould say though, use this
optimism that we have in themarket leading up to that
meeting, make some sales, andthen we can look for reownership
strategies in case we really doget some good business from
China and we do go sharplyhigher. But I I I think the big
(22:41):
strength in soybeans is here nowand up until that, meeting
happens. I'm worried that themarket's gonna be disappointed
with whatever comes out of thatmeeting.
Todd Gleason (22:50):
So Ellen Dearden, Ted's saying there's an
opportunity for both corn andsoybeans at the moment. What
kind of view do you have at themarketplace?
Ellen Dearden (22:57):
Well, I think the the big problem that I see on
corn is a 24¢, in charge to payfor commercial storage till the
first of the year. That's justtoo large for me to be dealing
with. I would much prefer toturn corn into cash, on at least
the overrun that you can't storeat home. And yeah, then you can
(23:21):
look at a re ownership strategyin either March or May options.
The bean side of things, I thinkthere is a little more upside
potential.
However, I'm going to really bewaiting to see the Treasury
Secretary's comments after hismeeting this week because if his
meeting is not fruitful with theChinese, then Trump's whatever
(23:44):
Trump says with g or if thatmeeting even takes place will be
old news. So I think you gottawait until the first of the week
to price out beans.
Todd Gleason (23:55):
Naomi Blohm, any thoughts for us?
Naomi Blohm (23:58):
Absolutely. If you're making any cash sales
here at harvest for whateverreason, do consider reowning it.
Corn and beans both, I feel thatthe prices come Christmas time
and into the new year are goingto be better than what they are
right now. There's an upsidedown head and shoulders
formation on the March corncontract, which points to a
(24:18):
swing objective higher closer tofour seventy five to four eighty
if we can get some additionalsupportive news to get the
market to go higher or if thefunds continue to buy back the
short positions. Now, I do thinkthat the 4.75 to 4.8 area in
March corn might be as good asit gets.
For prices to get higher thanthat, you're going to need to
see new demand coming in forexport sales. You're going to
(24:40):
need to see bad weatherhappening in South America, and
you're going to need to see abigger reaction of the funds to
be buyers. So in general, if weget to that four seventy five
area, should that come tofruition come Christmas or come
January, that is going to be apoint where if folks have corn
in the bins, that's where you'regoing to want be making some
(25:01):
more cash sales at that pricelevel. Same concept on the
soybeans, looking at reownership bull call spreads with
the March contract. That Marchsoybean contract has been
trading in a sidewaysconsolidation pattern for about
a year and a half.
And the longer the market tradesin a sideways pattern, the
bigger the price breakout isgoing to be down the road. So
there could be some upside thereif China comes in and does some
(25:22):
buying here. But of course, ifthey don't come in, as Ted's
point was earlier, the marketmight have a hard time getting
through the short termresistance area that we're at
right now. So to reward therally, especially on beans since
we are up about 50¢ off therecent lows, make some sales,
reown it with a fixed riskstrategy just in case the market
can go higher. But in general,I'm a little bit more optimistic
(25:47):
with these prices.
Todd Gleason (25:48):
And finally, I'd like to turn our attention to
policy coming out of WashingtonDC. President Trump this month
has been working to salvage theArgentine economy. The first
thing that happened, of course,was the announcement of a
$20,000,000,000 investment tosupport the Argentine peso that
(26:10):
turned out to be $40,000,000,000at this point. And at the same
time, Argentina then took offthe tax, something above 30%. I
think it's 33 and a half or 35%on soybeans.
And in four or five days, theysold about 40 cargo loads of
soybeans into the marketplacethat did not make, American crop
row agriculture very happy. Andthen on Sunday of this week, the
(26:36):
president suggested and saidthat they were going to import
Argentine beef into The UnitedStates to try to lower consumer
beef prices. An announcementeventually came that they're
hoping to bring in four timesthe quota that has been, in
place for beef coming into TheUnited States. The National
(26:57):
Cattlemen's Beef Association hasnot been happy. In fact, their
press release says cattlemen andwomen cannot stand behind
president Trump while heundercuts the future of family
farmers and ranchers byimporting Argentinean beef.
It is imperative, that POTUS andsecretary Rollins let the cattle
(27:19):
markets work withoutinterference. How has the market
in Chicago reacted to all ofthis? And I suppose, I'll start,
Ellen Dearden, with you.
Ellen Dearden (27:31):
You're starting with me just because we're
cattle people, aren't you?
Ted Seifried (27:35):
I am.
Ellen Dearden (27:36):
I I to tell you the truth, the 20,000 metric
tons to 80,000 metric tons isnot that big a deal but I think
the signal from the White Housethat, I'm gonna beat my chest
and look how good a guy I amthat, we've got the consumer
(27:57):
price for beef going to headlower. It is a kind of a kick in
the gut. And, I think that,Colin Woodall is really good
about saying that it doesundermine the family rancher,
family farmer and, the marketreaction was really difficult,
(28:21):
yesterday when we saw limit downmove in the feeder cattle. The
live cattle have been able tofind support on the nearby
months. But when we go back alittle further because that's
when we imports to start, not sogood.
So, I'm not in favor of thisaction. I think this is
(28:41):
intervention that doesn't needto be intervened on, but, I'm
just, you know, one small littlecattle lady out here in the
country.
Todd Gleason (28:49):
Colin Woodall is the chief executive officer of
the National Cattlemen's BeefAssociation. He and the
president of the BeefAssociation have not been kind
in the words there have beenexpressed as it's related to
this, Argentine beef import rowthat is taking place. Naomi
(29:10):
Bloom, what kinds of comments doyou have for me today on this
issue, if anything?
Naomi Blohm (29:15):
Yeah. Well, I mean, a few weeks ago, president Trump
had kind of gave his firstwarning shot saying he was aware
of high prices to the consumer.And then last week, sure, you
know, him talking aboutimporting Argentina beef, I
mean, to Alan's point, the80,000 metric tons isn't a huge
a lot, a huge amount. And I hadreported to my clients earlier
(29:37):
in the week that from Januarythrough July 2025, our US beef
imports were closer to 1,200,000tons and that's up nearly 30% on
the year. So our imports ingeneral from Brazil, Australia,
Uruguay, and Argentina werealready up.
(29:58):
It was just, I think that themarket picked up specifically on
this Argentina news because itwas a concrete number that came
out of the White House. But whenyou look at a monthly chart on
cattle, when you look at whereprices have been recently, we
hit a huge technical objectiveon a monthly chart with the
recent price highs that we'vehad. And so some profit taking
(30:21):
was, you know, I think, bound tohappen. Also, you know, cattle
producers and farmers, you aresavvy. There are marketing tools
that are available to help forprices going lower, just keeping
the politics out of it.
Use your marketing tools to helpprotect the value. Mean, we've
(30:43):
been talking for a year how thecattle prices have been going
higher, and at some point it'sgoing to fall. And so it's maybe
going to be now the high comingin because of what came out of
the White House, the differentcapacities with that multi point
plan that they releasedyesterday as well, that they're
going to try to ultimately bringprices down. As we all know,
(31:06):
it's a little bit different tobring the beef herd a lot of
growth just because of gestationcycles. It's a lot different
than eggs when President Trumpsaid he was going to bring the
price of eggs down.
But I think this is maybesomething that we all thought
eventually would come. We justdidn't know it would come with
(31:27):
this variety of news eventsswirling around it.
Todd Gleason (31:31):
And Ted Seifried.
Ted Seifried (31:32):
Yeah. You know, to agree with both Naomi and Ellen,
you know, 80,000 metric tons upfrom 20,000 metric tons is
really not much. In fact, it'swhat, three days of consumption?
In a year where, to Naomi'spoint, we're already up, what,
27, almost 30% in our in ourimports. And that that's not
(31:53):
interference in the marketsnecessarily.
That's how markets work. Right?If domestic prices are high and
we can look at other marketsthat, you know, we can buy beef
from, Australia in particular,Brazil's got the tariff on them
right now. We're gonna do that.Right?
So I I don't know. This is justmore of a function of that. It's
the whole point. It's the thethe news that it's getting, the
(32:16):
attention that Trump is givingto it, that's what we don't
really love. Right?
And and the idea that therecould be more things to come to
do this. And that that's whatthe market doesn't like. That's
what what cattle ranchers don'tlike to hear. But being honest,
I mean, talking to my cattleguys, I mean, for for months
now, they've been saying, Idon't know why we're so high.
(32:37):
Like, I I really wanna get moreinvolved in in hedge strategies
right now, but this is a runawaytrain, and I don't wanna be
margining this.
And puts are so very expensive.So I think, you know, the
strength that we've seen in thecattle market look. We like the
prices when we sell our animals,but we have a problem, I think,
with, you know, how to managerisk in these markets. And so
(32:58):
maybe this is is bringing usinto a time frame where that
becomes a little bit easier.And, the Argentinian thing in
and of itself is not going tomake or break our our beef
market, our cattle industry,anything like that.
It's just it's the point of itand the the public, the news
publications and and theattention that it's getting. In
the meantime, I think the biggerannouncement here today was that
(33:21):
the Mexican ag minister, willtravel to Washington next week,
to talk to, Claudia Steinbaumabout, you know, reopening the
border with Mexico. That is amuch, much bigger deal if that
happens. I mean, there's there'sa whole lot of animals that are
are backed up in Mexico thatwould be coming over the border
(33:42):
to start to replenish our herd,and that would be the the thing
that that ultimately wouldprobably put the highs in for
the cattle complex as a whole.Maybe not right away.
It takes some time. But that'sthe one that that I think poses
a bigger threat to USB prices.So I don't know. It's been a
(34:02):
long term bull market. You know,bull markets have a tendency to
ultimately fix themselves.
I guess the cliche is, you know,high prices are the cure for
high prices. That's not beenallowed to fix itself mainly
because of, the border beingclosed with Mexico, and to some
degree, the tariffs on Brazil.But if those things start to
change, especially the borderthing, that will start to,
(34:24):
again, maybe fix the highprices.
Todd Gleason (34:26):
And, Ellen Dearden, I'll close out the
program, and this part of theconversation coming back to you.
There is an eight to ten yearcycle in cattle, and it appears
we should be at the top of thatcycle, and should be about to
turn. I know you watch thesekinds of things. Where do you
suppose we are in it?
Ellen Dearden (34:47):
We are at the top. We are at the top, and I
was expecting to see it in thesummer and then work lower. Even
even on the short term, Ithought we ought to be working
lower in cattle here intoOctober, November, December. So
I think the big top's in.
Todd Gleason (35:07):
Commodity week, of course, is a production of
Illinois Public Media. That'spublic radio for the farming
world online on demand atwillag.org, where you can hear
this program in its entire team.Our thanks go to our panelists
today, including Ellen fromAgReview. She's in Morton,
Illinois. Naomi Bloom oftotalfarmmarketing.com out of
West Bend, West Wisconsin, andTed Seifried with Zaner AgHedge.
(35:32):
He is in Chicago. I'm Universityof Illinois Extension's Todd
Gleason.
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