September 4, 2025 • 31 mins
Panelists
- Logan Kimmel, RoachAg.com
- John Zanker, RMCommodities.com
- Mike Zuzolo, GlobalCommResearch.com
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Todd Gleason (00:00):
This is the September 4 edition of Commodity
Welcome to Commodity Week. I amTodd Gleason. Our panelists for
the day include Logan Kimmel.He's at Roach Ag out of
Naperville, Illinois. JohnZanker is here with Risk
(00:23):
Management Commodities, adivision of Zaner Ag Hedge from
Lafayette, Indiana.
Mike Suzlog joins us fromglobalcomresearch.com in
Atchison, Kansas. Commodity Weekis a production of Illinois
Public Media. It's public radiofor the farming world online on
demand anytime you'd like tolisten to us. Let's get started
with a list of items that weshould discuss today from each
(00:46):
of our panelists. Mike Suslow, Ithink we'll start with you
today.
What's on your list?
Mike Zuzolo (00:51):
Well, we still feel like that the corn market is
still trying to hold everythingtogether at this point, Todd,
but, you know, we're running outof runway with harvest quickly
approaching. And we need somesupport from the soybeans and
especially from the wheat here.But I think one good thing about
Thursday's close was weatherstill matters. Crop weather
still matters. It seemed likethings really changed in terms
(01:12):
of short term bias in the tradeafter the noontime models came
out.
So that's kinda probably wherethe next thirty days is gonna be
something we need to talk about.
Todd Gleason (01:21):
John Zanker, risk management commodities on your
list for the discussion today?
John Zanker (01:25):
Well, I think the southern rust issue, especially
in Iowa, is it might be morethan than we previously thought.
I've been a little bit skepticalas far as it having a huge
impact, but after a conversationhere an hour ago with our in
house agronomist, I I'm who justgot back from Iowa, I'm my
(01:47):
concern over that issue isgrowing, and then, on the other
side, for soybeans, jeez,where's China? Least amount of
sales on the books since 1999,so and we're running out of
time. Something needs to move onthat pretty quick.
Todd Gleason (02:06):
And finally, Logan Kimmel at Roach Ag. What else
might we need to take up?
Logan Kimmel (02:10):
Yeah. Spent last week there, three days at the
Farm Progress Show. I had a lotof conversations with folks, I
states primarily. So I'd be gladto share my insights on what
they're seeing on their cropdevelopment here in the latter
stages of the growing season.What's changed here maybe a
(02:31):
month ago?
Also had a lot of conversationsand questions on, hey, what
should we be doing marketingwise now on this new crop coming
into harvest? A lot of folkssitting maybe undersold. So we
have to go over that andconversations I had here last
week.
Todd Gleason (02:48):
Well, let's begin, John Zanker, with you and start
with southern rust. An hour agoon Thursday afternoon, you say
you had chitchat with aneconomist, and they're worried,
I take it.
John Zanker (03:00):
Yes. And, of course, social media has been
blowing up, and, you know, weoften see, maybe some
exaggerations from that attimes. And, you know, before the
derecho and now there's, youknow, there's some people
starting to say, hey. This mayhave an impact similar to the
derecho. And, before thederecho, most of these things,
(03:22):
were overblown.
And, I went out and got a viewof the derecho about two days
after it happened and, I wasabout halfway on my journey
between Cedar Rapids and Amesand I called back and told
Chuck, I said, I think we needto start covering our corn cells
now. Whether we're at that pointhere, I guess one good thing is
(03:47):
given the prices that we've hadto work with, I can't say I'm
overly sold or, you know, highlysold, so at least we have that,
but we're not going to knowuntil we have the combines roll
and get those numbers back, butI think this may be a problem
that might exceed expectationsat this point.
Todd Gleason (04:09):
It'll be interesting to see how that
comes out. From the farmer'sperspective, it appears at least
from the Allendale survey thatwas released earlier this week,
producers aren't terriblyworried about southern rust. In
fact, their number is not veryfar off what USDA released in
its August crop productionnumbers, Logan Kimmel. Did you
(04:33):
hear good, bad, all those sortsof things when you were talking
to producers during the FarmProgress Show last week?
Logan Kimmel (04:40):
Yeah. Heard a little bit of everything. I
think the general consensusthough, a lot of folks passing
through, felt that, going to bea good crop, no doubt. On the
corn they've got a pretty goodfeel. But I'd say maybe compared
to a month ago, maybe not asgood as they had thought.
(05:02):
I don't think there was onearea, that's going to be a
complete disaster. And therecertainly were folks that are
extremely happy with whatthey're thinking they're going
to be having here in the nextcouple of weeks. But a lot of
folks had mentioned the dryness,that snuck in there at the tail
August, missing rains. So theykind of dialed down their
(05:24):
expectations of maybe what theyhad thought at the July. That
was the general consensus.
Think the dryness, there wassome chatter and I would have to
agree with the Southern Rust. Ithink that's something that, oh
boy, you got to keep your eye onthat, could develop and be a
bigger problem than maybe whatwe think right now. And that's
(05:46):
just from chatter at the show.So again, overall consensus is,
hey, my crop is going to beokay. It's going to be good.
Probably not what we werethinking though, three to four
weeks, know, ago and that's justa lot due again to the dryness
here in August.
Todd Gleason (06:02):
The land grant plant pathologist throwing the
red flags in the air in July onSouthern Rust saying that this
was a disease that could causeserious issues, Mike Sussolo.
How how do you suppose we oughtto take this going into the end
of the season given what Augustshowed us from USDA, a different
(06:25):
kind of picture that we got fromthe pro farmer numbers, but
still a big, big crop. And it'snot clear to me how much the
disease, they hedged into theirfinal numbers. I did ask that
question, but I didn't get agood answer from it. And then,
of course, a number from thefarmers and the survey from
(06:46):
Allendale suggesting, hey.
We still have that that August 1size crop out there or pretty
darn close to it. So how do youplay this?
Mike Zuzolo (06:54):
Yeah. To me, Todd, it's a market that has
similarities to 2018 and thefirst Trump administration in
the soybeans and the basis, andwe're seeing that in, you know,
Iowa, Minnesota, the Dakotasanywhere from 90 to a dollar 20
under. I've heard I have notseen it, but I've heard they're
getting close to a dollar 50,dollar 60 under in certain parts
(07:18):
of the country if it's basedupon the Pacific Northwest
export market. And so that's oneelement that we put in the
bucket this year. The secondelement is the disease pressure,
whether we're talking aboutsouthern rust, which I'm hearing
from some people that it's gonnabe 10% of their yields.
Some people think it may bemore. And then you introduce the
(07:40):
third issue of the tar spot thatcould that be another 10%, maybe
20. Guys out here a few yearsago in Northeast Kansas had 40%
hits on their yields becausethey didn't get on top of it
fast enough. I don't think it'sgonna be that bad, but and I
think the fourth element goesback to what we've been talking
about pretty much all summer,and that is this amazing corn
(08:01):
demand. And the fact that whileprivate trade guesses are going
up right now in both Black Seawheat and Black Sea corn, I
can't see it right now.
I I mean, I'm just not seeing itin the maps, the soil moisture
profile analysis, and and I'mnot seeing what the increased
warfare and bombing of majorports on the Black Sea, major
(08:22):
grain ports this week on theBlack Sea again. And so I I
think when I put all thattogether along with The US China
trade negotiations, probably notgoing to get any better between
now and the end of the year.Obviously, farmers are already
thinking about bins. They'rethinking about bagging it. I I
would say this is where thebasis really comes into play
between what you have to get offthe combine, reowning it maybe
(08:45):
right away in the case of corn,maybe doing it right away in the
beans if we stay dry another twoto three weeks.
So I I can't remember a time. Istarted in November 1995. I
can't remember a time where I'mtrying to do the best I can on
basis and separate futures outof my basis when it comes to the
hedging side of the equation forespecially off the combine
(09:07):
bushels, cash flow bushels.
Todd Gleason (09:09):
This is where you mentioned corn, soybeans too,
running out of time as harvestwill be upon us soon, and that
gut slot may very well be reallybad.
Mike Zuzolo (09:21):
Yeah. And and and this brings up the issue as
well, naturally, we would havethought that soybeans would be
dumped very quickly to make roomfor corn. I think that's
probably likely in East Of TheMississippi River, but because
of the disease pressure and thebasis levels, we may see the
exact opposite. And so not onlyam I gonna have to sharpen my
pencil futures and basis wise,I'm gonna be very geographically
(09:45):
specific to it too at this stageof the game, and it's not going
to be easy. And, unfortunately,what I'm saying right now, let's
use 2018 as an example.
In 2018, we were going lower atthis point. After the July, we
made a high and we went downinto the September, made a low
(10:06):
and went trading rangeessentially after that. Exact
opposite last year. We made thebig low after the August report,
went up into mid September, andthen down into November
expiration. My mindset is isthat we are tracking more like
last year, especially if we staydry.
That would suggest to me do morehedge to arrives, leave your
(10:28):
basis open in the beans even formaybe off the combine sales, and
then have to really play a veryquick game of locking that basis
in as you deliver. So that'ssomething I'm not recommending.
I can't recommend that on forcompliance on a one to one
level, but something to thinkabout.
Todd Gleason (10:44):
John Zanker, when you think about this and what
producers are faced with as theyare well behind on their
marketing, And again, I'll lookback at the Allendale numbers
very quickly because they didask how far that long they were
and way behind on both corn andsoybeans. I think further behind
on soybeans than they are oncorn at this point, surprisingly
(11:05):
enough. What kinds of things doyou think that they should be up
to?
John Zanker (11:11):
Well, we're stuck at this point. If a producer
hasn't gotten anything lockedin, it's there aren't any really
easy answers. Now there are somethings that I think that we
should not do. Basis contracts,DP, you know, those are things
(11:32):
that always look maybe like it'snot a bad move at the start, but
in a big carry market. Again,what did we do last year?
We ran this market up into earlyharvest and then had a break,
and if you put a basis contracton, typically most producers
(11:52):
aren't thinking that they'regoing to price it on a $10.15,
20¢ rally, they're looking forsomething bigger, and we get
stuck in a carry market, in abig carry market, that 40 under
on corn turns into 60 under, andthen we've just dug a hole and
it's really difficult to get outof. So we're more aligned right
(12:15):
now to saying, hey, if harvest,and harvest is starting in this
area, certainly in parts ofIllinois and Iowa, so take the
hit on the basis and then re ownit with the idea that we could
be into something here thatcould take this market
(12:38):
substantially higher, especiallyif we have any problems in South
America. We just to be preparedfor that, but don't throw in the
towel completely here with thoseharvest bushels.
Todd Gleason (12:50):
So Logan, I know you wanted to talk about this as
well, we've had a couple ofdifferent options coming forward
here, what kinds of things haveyou been talking with your
clientele about?
Logan Kimmel (13:00):
I guess going back the last couple of weeks here,
some of the opportunities thatwe've seen, one being in the
soybeans. And I think when aproducer looks at this coming
harvest, if you're in a positionwhere maybe you don't want to
store, your beans, if you wantyour soybeans coming off the
(13:21):
combine into down price. Therehas been a little bit better of
a market up the last couple ofdays, in the soybeans that
really ran back up to the topend of the channel we've seen
all year on new crops. Sopricing those beans and using
(13:42):
some strength in the beanmarket, think is not a terrible
idea. We had a pretty goodreversal here today in the bean
market, punching through aboutthree moving averages and
closing positive here.
So if we get a move intoharvest, we're much better off
from where we started the monthof August, from a price
(14:04):
standpoint on the soy complex,that might be an opportunity for
producers to up their new cropsoybean sales. On the corn
market, it it's tradedrelatively well since the August
12 report. And I think it'simportant to, for producers to
weigh their options if they'restaring at a situation where
(14:26):
maybe they don't have enough binspace on farm. Take a look at
your basis and what might yourstorage rates be. It might make
sense to get some of thosebushels moved on this rally
we've had or nice little uptrendwe've had And consider extending
your coverage and maybe calloptions out to the spring or
(14:47):
summer.
Because I do think you canpossibly see a better corn
market here going forward intothe winter and spring. In the
short term though, I think thename of the game is navigating
the basis as we come intoprobably a large harvest and
what to do with those bushelsthat aren't going to have bin
space on farm. There has andagain, to reiterate, there have
(15:09):
been some opportunities in thebean market and also here
recently in the corn market thatwe just find ourselves all
summer not with a clear greatmarketing opportunity. Now we're
kind of getting into a markethere that feels that you might
be able to do something. Youmight be able to make some
marketing decisions and try tocatch some swings on the basis
(15:34):
that I think could get betterhere in the winter.
Todd Gleason (15:37):
Mike Zuslow, you mentioned upfront that weather
still matters. I take it that'sin The United States. Tell me
about it.
Mike Zuzolo (15:46):
Yeah. I mean, I would say in The United States.
I would say in Ukraine. I wouldeven say there's been some
pretty terrific flooding inNorthern India that could be
impacting the the market marketthere. There has been some
pretty significant issues inArgentine weed, including some
frost threats.
There's enough out there, and Iwould say even in parts of China
(16:09):
earlier this year, maybe it'sall gone away. But I would say,
you know, for me, Todd, when Ilook at what the trade is
trading, and we've talked aboutthis a lot this year, that it
seems to me that why was Iwanting to go and hedge beans
more aggressively than corn orwheat? And it was because I was
looking at world supply, worldstocks to use versus US stocks
(16:31):
and US stocks to use. But thetrade was trading the exact
opposite of that. I think atsome point, they're gonna have
to come together.
And I I suspect that's gonnahappen once we know the size of
The US crop. And I think that'spart of the reason why we're
seeing these kind of gyrations.I think it's part of the reason
why we're seeing this kind ofcorn demand. And and I think
this is where can it get worsebetween The US and China in
(16:53):
terms of they they continue tonot talk and and, you know,
basis keeps weakening? I I don'tthink that's gonna happen, but
what would happen if US andChina went back to a really high
tariff level because Russia isnot backing down from Ukraine,
and the Trump administrationtreats China just like they are
India right now with buyingRussian crude oil and being the
(17:16):
biggest buyer of Russian crudeoil.
And I think that's where, again,thinking of the bucket and all
the factors and all the thingsin it, I I still walk away at
the end of the day and thinkthere's less downside because
the price in corn and wheat havefactored in the biggest supplies
as opposed to the soybeans inthe futures market and to a
lesser degree in the basismarket. But, you know, I was
(17:38):
just looking at the seasonality.And on on September beans closed
today, the day we're taping thisat 10:33. Last year, was 10:22.
And in 2018, it was 08:44.
This is what you wanna protectagainst, this kind of a break to
the downside. And that's why Ibring up the hedge to arrive
(17:59):
mindset and the future side ofthe mindset in the soybeans,
even if we stay dry. You know,that way, you're leaving your
basis open. If you have tighteryields and and lower pod counts
or lower beans per pod, thatshould be reflected in your
local market. Basis is yourlocal weather play, if you will.
Todd Gleason (18:21):
John, you wanted to discuss China and the fact
that they simply have notpurchased at this point, but
you, I think, gave me a broadernumber, going back to 1995 or
'96 as it relates to totalexports of soybeans. Is that
correct first? And then how doyou see China weathering, this
(18:46):
three month, four month periodhere trying to get to February,
and the export market that wouldbe filled by Brazil?
John Zanker (18:56):
Well, what I was talking about is that new crop
sales on the books at zeroofficially. You know, could
there be some cells on thereunknown that, you know,
potentially, but most peoplethink not. So zero, for the
first time since 1999. You know,and I've been you know, Arlen
(19:19):
Suderman, I've been worriedabout this for since winter and
talking about it. I have beenheavily hedged, 100% hedged in
some fashion since winter onsoybeans.
Now just starting to wonder youknow, how much downside is left,
but, with that, what did we do,USDA dropped acreage 2,400,000,
(19:44):
that was a game changer, youknow, that changed my thought,
and I'm sure a lot of otherthoughts as well. When I saw the
53.6 yield, I thought that couldbe the smallest yield we see,
and then here we are, anotherdry August, disappointing
August, and that may be thehighest we see. Arlen commented
(20:06):
today that last year Chinashipped two fifty million beans
in SeptemberOctober. What are wegoing to do if they don't ship
hardly any? I think right now ifthey just had half of the
bushels that they have for afive year average on the books
(20:26):
for new crop, we'd have beansover $11 I think the acreage
change and the dry August has,you know, made that big of a
difference, but the reality isthey don't and they may not need
to.
They have beans, probably arecord, well they bought a bunch
of beans from Brazil June, July,August. They have a substantial
(20:48):
number of beans booked forSeptember, October, December.
They've purchased Argentine mealcargo. Ireland thinks that they
could go this year, the balanceof this year, without buying any
beans. They'd have to dip intothe reserves by quite a bit, but
if we get to January and there'sa good South American crop
(21:10):
going, we have a huge problemand the USDA is probably
150,000,000 high, and they'vealready cut 175 from this past
year, so I think the downside isstill real, we'll just we'll
just have to see how theseyields you know, we we we need
some yield results, and we canstart making some definite
(21:32):
decisions at that point.
Todd Gleason (21:33):
Mike Suzuloy, wanna come back to you because
there was something thathappened on the world stage that
I'm sure you took note of thisweek, the military parade that
she that took place in China.President Xi standing alongside
Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong un,from North Korea and a couple of
(21:55):
others as well, kind of a unitedfront. Do you suppose that
they're ready to stand againstThe United States, not
militarily, but in the trade andglobal area for influence at
this point? Has was that whatthey were trying to project
(22:17):
along with the military power ofChina?
Mike Zuzolo (22:19):
Yeah. I mean, I I think this goes in hand in hand
with the last couple years andand really the last ten or
twelve years in a in a slowmotion fashion of Russia and
China, especially working withthe BRICS to change them into
kind of the new east trading andgeopolitical alliance, Todd. And
I think that was one of the mostsure signs that this new
(22:42):
alliance is occurring, andthere's gonna be a new East and
a new West in most probability.The the only big stumbling block
that China has right now inRussia and India and and Brazil
and the s being South Korea orexcuse me, South Africa. The the
only stumbling block they haveis how much the dollar is still
(23:03):
traded in the world currencymarkets, and they're working
pretty feverishly to try andupend that.
But I think that'll take severalyears to get done. What they can
do though is a lot moretrilateral and bilateral trade
and and trade in their owncurrencies and and work with one
another, and and that justembeds them more. And this, you
(23:24):
know, brings us to 2026 and alot more questions from clients
about what about 2026 hedges?Should I start getting on those?
Because is this not going to getany better?
Well, that's been kinda put onpause because of some of the
court decisions on presidentTrump's tariffs. But I think the
2026 hedges are still very freshin my mind, in case this
situation comes back again. AndI think, you know, an $11.20 26
(23:48):
November bean price to me is apretty good place to start on
getting some hedges in placewith Brazil getting ready to
ramp up and, you know, their newthe the new cross rail cross
country railroad from Brazil tothe Shanque Port in Peru. All
these things are comingtogether.
Todd Gleason (24:07):
Yeah. Let's turn our attention to, next week's
USDA report. Crop production dueout on Friday, Logan Kimmel.
They'll have a new set ofnumbers for both corn and
soybeans. Will there be manychanges, do you think?
And this one will includeobjective yields.
Logan Kimmel (24:24):
No. I I wonder if if that yield will come down,
just based on chatter we'vehearing. Have we seen the high
watermark, there 188 on the corn53.6 on the soybeans, just based
on how August played out weatherwise. So I guess in terms of
(24:46):
this report, that might besomething to watch for. And
jumping back to the last report,I was awfully surprised or
pleased to see how the tradereacted to those numbers.
Makes me wonder if you've seenshort covering now from the spec
funds on corn three weeks in arow. Off of that 188.8 is the
(25:12):
market looking for and tradingnow a lower yield. So coming
into next week's report, thatmight be something to watch,
that might be a market mover.You might even see some
positioning ahead of that orhave been here the last few
weeks after the August 12report.
Todd Gleason (25:28):
So John, I have to ask, and this goes back to,
Mike's comment early on thatcorn's running out of time. Do
you take the next week and makedecisions about bushels that you
need to run across the scale,whether they're corn and
soybeans before this cropproduction report comes out?
John Zanker (25:47):
Well, certainly if we run I mean, we're certainly
gonna be into some corn herebefore long, and so we have to
make some decisions. And, I'mhoping, but I'm always hoping
for a run up into a report, butespecially this one, because we
we've gotta make some decisions.Some of those have been made,
(26:09):
but not enough, so we run thismarket up, let's say, certainly
15¢ into this report, and we'vegot to move some corn. We're
just gonna be flat pricing itand then and getting some
coverage on. So with the ideathat we we still have a lot of
corn to price, which I wasn'ttoo proud of not too long ago,
(26:31):
and so now maybe it's startingto look like that's gonna be
okay.
So I I think that the USDA willcome down. When I saw the $1.88
1, I said that'll be the biggestthat we see, and I've across the
Iowa corn crop, Illinois corncrop in the July, Missouri,
(26:51):
Indiana. It's the best I'veseen, and I've been doing this
for forty years. So but and I'mgoing back out, leaving on
Saturday morning to take anothertrip across to Iowa. So but it's
just one of those things.
We're not the the crop scoutswill be out for the USDA
checking fields and so on, butif you, you know, if you look at
(27:12):
the year, that's not gonna tella story. Are we gonna have
90,000 kernels due to thisdisease? Are we going to have
65, 70,000? Huge differencebetween those two levels. So, I
think we're not going to pick upall the problems in this report,
and, we're certainly gonna bevery interested in the October
report.
Todd Gleason (27:32):
Let's get a final word from each of you now. Mike
Suzlow, I think we'll begin withyou at globalcomresearch.com.
Mike Zuzolo (27:39):
Yeah. Just to pick up on the last question, Todd, I
think where my mind is is ifwe're rallying into the
September report last like lastyear and beans are helping to
support the corn, it it leads usto more of a feed the bull type
report, and that means you needgood numbers from USDA. So I
think this is a good opportunityto hedge, especially if we break
above in the corn last week'shighs. I show a gap in Dec corn
(28:02):
of around 4.32, 4.33 area. Ihope we can go chasing that gap
heading into that report.
I think off the combine sales orhedge to arrives or something
would be pretty prudent and samewith the soybeans if we can get
another 20¢ up in the Novemberbeads.
Todd Gleason (28:19):
Logan Kimmel, your final word from Roach Ag.
Logan Kimmel (28:22):
As harvest approaches, marketing can
sometimes get put on the backburner. But I think it's
important this year, especiallyto be paying attention,
utilizing opportunities. If themarket gives you those, maybe
into the next WASDE report,weigh your options. Ask ask your
merchandiser, ask your adviserwho what what are your options
(28:44):
here on storage if you're shorton on farm space? What what what
is what what is their feel onbasis?
I I think it's important to tolook at those, consider coverage
on any sales here, in flatsales, coverage out to the
spring or summer to still keep alittle upside, especially maybe
(29:04):
in the corn market. And thenjumping back, Mike made a good
point too. Would keep an eye onthe 2026, specifically on the
soybeans, just given thegeopolitical risk, meeting there
with Russia, China, the marketmight be in an area here on
(29:26):
November 2026 or in this zonethat could be an initial good
sale, for next year's beans. Ithink that might be an
opportunity this fall or winterand start for looking at, 2026
hedges as well.
Todd Gleason (29:40):
And finally, John Zanker for Spanish milk
commodities, your final word.
John Zanker (29:44):
Well, I've always liked selling premium and, you
know, I've not been one forgoing out and pricing the next
year's crop when it was at a bigdiscount to the nearby crop and
I still have a portion of thatto sell, but we need to keep a
real close eye on thedevelopments here in these new
crop beans, we're talking aboutthe 26. There's good premium
(30:07):
there between this year and nextyear. Bean acres will likely go
up, they could go up sharply.Now if corn yield comes down
sharply due to rust, are wegoing to keep some of those corn
acres with with inputs notcoming down? Think we could
still see a minimum probably offour to 5,000,000 more acres of
(30:29):
soybeans, so getting somethingon close to $11, $10.80 to $11,
I don't think that's bad.
We need to be careful aboutputting all of our eggs in one
basket. If we're to get a littlebullish corn, we'd be we we need
to be careful about not gettingtoo bullish beans at the same
time.
Todd Gleason (30:46):
Commodity Week is a production of Illinois Public
Media. You may listen to thewhole of the program anytime
you'd like at willag.org. That'swillag.0rg. Our thanks go to our
panelists this week includingMike Souslow, John Zanker, and
Logan Kimmel. I'm IllinoisExtension's Todd Gleason.
This is the September 4 edition of Commodity
Welcome to Commodity Week. I amTodd Gleason. Our panelists for
the day include Logan Kimmel.He's at Roach Ag out of
Naperville, Illinois. JohnZanker is here with Risk
(00:23):
Management Commodities, adivision of Zaner Ag Hedge from
Lafayette, Indiana.
Mike Suzlog joins us fromglobalcomresearch.com in
Atchison, Kansas. Commodity Weekis a production of Illinois
Public Media. It's public radiofor the farming world online on
demand anytime you'd like tolisten to us. Let's get started
with a list of items that weshould discuss today from each
(00:46):
of our panelists. Mike Suslow, Ithink we'll start with you
today.
What's on your list?
Mike Zuzolo (00:51):
Well, we still feel like that the corn market is
still trying to hold everythingtogether at this point, Todd,
but, you know, we're running outof runway with harvest quickly
approaching. And we need somesupport from the soybeans and
especially from the wheat here.But I think one good thing about
Thursday's close was weatherstill matters. Crop weather
still matters. It seemed likethings really changed in terms
(01:12):
of short term bias in the tradeafter the noontime models came
out.
So that's kinda probably wherethe next thirty days is gonna be
something we need to talk about.
Todd Gleason (01:21):
John Zanker, risk management commodities on your
list for the discussion today?
John Zanker (01:25):
Well, I think the southern rust issue, especially
in Iowa, is it might be morethan than we previously thought.
I've been a little bit skepticalas far as it having a huge
impact, but after a conversationhere an hour ago with our in
house agronomist, I I'm who justgot back from Iowa, I'm my
(01:47):
concern over that issue isgrowing, and then, on the other
side, for soybeans, jeez,where's China? Least amount of
sales on the books since 1999,so and we're running out of
time. Something needs to move onthat pretty quick.
Todd Gleason (02:06):
And finally, Logan Kimmel at Roach Ag. What else
might we need to take up?
Logan Kimmel (02:10):
Yeah. Spent last week there, three days at the
Farm Progress Show. I had a lotof conversations with folks, I
states primarily. So I'd be gladto share my insights on what
they're seeing on their cropdevelopment here in the latter
stages of the growing season.What's changed here maybe a
(02:31):
month ago?
Also had a lot of conversationsand questions on, hey, what
should we be doing marketingwise now on this new crop coming
into harvest? A lot of folkssitting maybe undersold. So we
have to go over that andconversations I had here last
week.
Todd Gleason (02:48):
Well, let's begin, John Zanker, with you and start
with southern rust. An hour agoon Thursday afternoon, you say
you had chitchat with aneconomist, and they're worried,
I take it.
John Zanker (03:00):
Yes. And, of course, social media has been
blowing up, and, you know, weoften see, maybe some
exaggerations from that attimes. And, you know, before the
derecho and now there's, youknow, there's some people
starting to say, hey. This mayhave an impact similar to the
derecho. And, before thederecho, most of these things,
(03:22):
were overblown.
And, I went out and got a viewof the derecho about two days
after it happened and, I wasabout halfway on my journey
between Cedar Rapids and Amesand I called back and told
Chuck, I said, I think we needto start covering our corn cells
now. Whether we're at that pointhere, I guess one good thing is
(03:47):
given the prices that we've hadto work with, I can't say I'm
overly sold or, you know, highlysold, so at least we have that,
but we're not going to knowuntil we have the combines roll
and get those numbers back, butI think this may be a problem
that might exceed expectationsat this point.
Todd Gleason (04:09):
It'll be interesting to see how that
comes out. From the farmer'sperspective, it appears at least
from the Allendale survey thatwas released earlier this week,
producers aren't terriblyworried about southern rust. In
fact, their number is not veryfar off what USDA released in
its August crop productionnumbers, Logan Kimmel. Did you
(04:33):
hear good, bad, all those sortsof things when you were talking
to producers during the FarmProgress Show last week?
Logan Kimmel (04:40):
Yeah. Heard a little bit of everything. I
think the general consensusthough, a lot of folks passing
through, felt that, going to bea good crop, no doubt. On the
corn they've got a pretty goodfeel. But I'd say maybe compared
to a month ago, maybe not asgood as they had thought.
(05:02):
I don't think there was onearea, that's going to be a
complete disaster. And therecertainly were folks that are
extremely happy with whatthey're thinking they're going
to be having here in the nextcouple of weeks. But a lot of
folks had mentioned the dryness,that snuck in there at the tail
August, missing rains. So theykind of dialed down their
(05:24):
expectations of maybe what theyhad thought at the July. That
was the general consensus.
Think the dryness, there wassome chatter and I would have to
agree with the Southern Rust. Ithink that's something that, oh
boy, you got to keep your eye onthat, could develop and be a
bigger problem than maybe whatwe think right now. And that's
(05:46):
just from chatter at the show.So again, overall consensus is,
hey, my crop is going to beokay. It's going to be good.
Probably not what we werethinking though, three to four
weeks, know, ago and that's justa lot due again to the dryness
here in August.
Todd Gleason (06:02):
The land grant plant pathologist throwing the
red flags in the air in July onSouthern Rust saying that this
was a disease that could causeserious issues, Mike Sussolo.
How how do you suppose we oughtto take this going into the end
of the season given what Augustshowed us from USDA, a different
(06:25):
kind of picture that we got fromthe pro farmer numbers, but
still a big, big crop. And it'snot clear to me how much the
disease, they hedged into theirfinal numbers. I did ask that
question, but I didn't get agood answer from it. And then,
of course, a number from thefarmers and the survey from
(06:46):
Allendale suggesting, hey.
We still have that that August 1size crop out there or pretty
darn close to it. So how do youplay this?
Mike Zuzolo (06:54):
Yeah. To me, Todd, it's a market that has
similarities to 2018 and thefirst Trump administration in
the soybeans and the basis, andwe're seeing that in, you know,
Iowa, Minnesota, the Dakotasanywhere from 90 to a dollar 20
under. I've heard I have notseen it, but I've heard they're
getting close to a dollar 50,dollar 60 under in certain parts
(07:18):
of the country if it's basedupon the Pacific Northwest
export market. And so that's oneelement that we put in the
bucket this year. The secondelement is the disease pressure,
whether we're talking aboutsouthern rust, which I'm hearing
from some people that it's gonnabe 10% of their yields.
Some people think it may bemore. And then you introduce the
(07:40):
third issue of the tar spot thatcould that be another 10%, maybe
20. Guys out here a few yearsago in Northeast Kansas had 40%
hits on their yields becausethey didn't get on top of it
fast enough. I don't think it'sgonna be that bad, but and I
think the fourth element goesback to what we've been talking
about pretty much all summer,and that is this amazing corn
(08:01):
demand. And the fact that whileprivate trade guesses are going
up right now in both Black Seawheat and Black Sea corn, I
can't see it right now.
I I mean, I'm just not seeing itin the maps, the soil moisture
profile analysis, and and I'mnot seeing what the increased
warfare and bombing of majorports on the Black Sea, major
(08:22):
grain ports this week on theBlack Sea again. And so I I
think when I put all thattogether along with The US China
trade negotiations, probably notgoing to get any better between
now and the end of the year.Obviously, farmers are already
thinking about bins. They'rethinking about bagging it. I I
would say this is where thebasis really comes into play
between what you have to get offthe combine, reowning it maybe
(08:45):
right away in the case of corn,maybe doing it right away in the
beans if we stay dry another twoto three weeks.
So I I can't remember a time. Istarted in November 1995. I
can't remember a time where I'mtrying to do the best I can on
basis and separate futures outof my basis when it comes to the
hedging side of the equation forespecially off the combine
(09:07):
bushels, cash flow bushels.
Todd Gleason (09:09):
This is where you mentioned corn, soybeans too,
running out of time as harvestwill be upon us soon, and that
gut slot may very well be reallybad.
Mike Zuzolo (09:21):
Yeah. And and and this brings up the issue as
well, naturally, we would havethought that soybeans would be
dumped very quickly to make roomfor corn. I think that's
probably likely in East Of TheMississippi River, but because
of the disease pressure and thebasis levels, we may see the
exact opposite. And so not onlyam I gonna have to sharpen my
pencil futures and basis wise,I'm gonna be very geographically
(09:45):
specific to it too at this stageof the game, and it's not going
to be easy. And, unfortunately,what I'm saying right now, let's
use 2018 as an example.
In 2018, we were going lower atthis point. After the July, we
made a high and we went downinto the September, made a low
(10:06):
and went trading rangeessentially after that. Exact
opposite last year. We made thebig low after the August report,
went up into mid September, andthen down into November
expiration. My mindset is isthat we are tracking more like
last year, especially if we staydry.
That would suggest to me do morehedge to arrives, leave your
(10:28):
basis open in the beans even formaybe off the combine sales, and
then have to really play a veryquick game of locking that basis
in as you deliver. So that'ssomething I'm not recommending.
I can't recommend that on forcompliance on a one to one
level, but something to thinkabout.
Todd Gleason (10:44):
John Zanker, when you think about this and what
producers are faced with as theyare well behind on their
marketing, And again, I'll lookback at the Allendale numbers
very quickly because they didask how far that long they were
and way behind on both corn andsoybeans. I think further behind
on soybeans than they are oncorn at this point, surprisingly
(11:05):
enough. What kinds of things doyou think that they should be up
to?
John Zanker (11:11):
Well, we're stuck at this point. If a producer
hasn't gotten anything lockedin, it's there aren't any really
easy answers. Now there are somethings that I think that we
should not do. Basis contracts,DP, you know, those are things
(11:32):
that always look maybe like it'snot a bad move at the start, but
in a big carry market. Again,what did we do last year?
We ran this market up into earlyharvest and then had a break,
and if you put a basis contracton, typically most producers
(11:52):
aren't thinking that they'regoing to price it on a $10.15,
20¢ rally, they're looking forsomething bigger, and we get
stuck in a carry market, in abig carry market, that 40 under
on corn turns into 60 under, andthen we've just dug a hole and
it's really difficult to get outof. So we're more aligned right
(12:15):
now to saying, hey, if harvest,and harvest is starting in this
area, certainly in parts ofIllinois and Iowa, so take the
hit on the basis and then re ownit with the idea that we could
be into something here thatcould take this market
(12:38):
substantially higher, especiallyif we have any problems in South
America. We just to be preparedfor that, but don't throw in the
towel completely here with thoseharvest bushels.
Todd Gleason (12:50):
So Logan, I know you wanted to talk about this as
well, we've had a couple ofdifferent options coming forward
here, what kinds of things haveyou been talking with your
clientele about?
Logan Kimmel (13:00):
I guess going back the last couple of weeks here,
some of the opportunities thatwe've seen, one being in the
soybeans. And I think when aproducer looks at this coming
harvest, if you're in a positionwhere maybe you don't want to
store, your beans, if you wantyour soybeans coming off the
(13:21):
combine into down price. Therehas been a little bit better of
a market up the last couple ofdays, in the soybeans that
really ran back up to the topend of the channel we've seen
all year on new crops. Sopricing those beans and using
(13:42):
some strength in the beanmarket, think is not a terrible
idea. We had a pretty goodreversal here today in the bean
market, punching through aboutthree moving averages and
closing positive here.
So if we get a move intoharvest, we're much better off
from where we started the monthof August, from a price
(14:04):
standpoint on the soy complex,that might be an opportunity for
producers to up their new cropsoybean sales. On the corn
market, it it's tradedrelatively well since the August
12 report. And I think it'simportant to, for producers to
weigh their options if they'restaring at a situation where
(14:26):
maybe they don't have enough binspace on farm. Take a look at
your basis and what might yourstorage rates be. It might make
sense to get some of thosebushels moved on this rally
we've had or nice little uptrendwe've had And consider extending
your coverage and maybe calloptions out to the spring or
(14:47):
summer.
Because I do think you canpossibly see a better corn
market here going forward intothe winter and spring. In the
short term though, I think thename of the game is navigating
the basis as we come intoprobably a large harvest and
what to do with those bushelsthat aren't going to have bin
space on farm. There has andagain, to reiterate, there have
(15:09):
been some opportunities in thebean market and also here
recently in the corn market thatwe just find ourselves all
summer not with a clear greatmarketing opportunity. Now we're
kind of getting into a markethere that feels that you might
be able to do something. Youmight be able to make some
marketing decisions and try tocatch some swings on the basis
(15:34):
that I think could get betterhere in the winter.
Todd Gleason (15:37):
Mike Zuslow, you mentioned upfront that weather
still matters. I take it that'sin The United States. Tell me
about it.
Mike Zuzolo (15:46):
Yeah. I mean, I would say in The United States.
I would say in Ukraine. I wouldeven say there's been some
pretty terrific flooding inNorthern India that could be
impacting the the market marketthere. There has been some
pretty significant issues inArgentine weed, including some
frost threats.
There's enough out there, and Iwould say even in parts of China
(16:09):
earlier this year, maybe it'sall gone away. But I would say,
you know, for me, Todd, when Ilook at what the trade is
trading, and we've talked aboutthis a lot this year, that it
seems to me that why was Iwanting to go and hedge beans
more aggressively than corn orwheat? And it was because I was
looking at world supply, worldstocks to use versus US stocks
(16:31):
and US stocks to use. But thetrade was trading the exact
opposite of that. I think atsome point, they're gonna have
to come together.
And I I suspect that's gonnahappen once we know the size of
The US crop. And I think that'spart of the reason why we're
seeing these kind of gyrations.I think it's part of the reason
why we're seeing this kind ofcorn demand. And and I think
this is where can it get worsebetween The US and China in
(16:53):
terms of they they continue tonot talk and and, you know,
basis keeps weakening? I I don'tthink that's gonna happen, but
what would happen if US andChina went back to a really high
tariff level because Russia isnot backing down from Ukraine,
and the Trump administrationtreats China just like they are
India right now with buyingRussian crude oil and being the
(17:16):
biggest buyer of Russian crudeoil.
And I think that's where, again,thinking of the bucket and all
the factors and all the thingsin it, I I still walk away at
the end of the day and thinkthere's less downside because
the price in corn and wheat havefactored in the biggest supplies
as opposed to the soybeans inthe futures market and to a
lesser degree in the basismarket. But, you know, I was
(17:38):
just looking at the seasonality.And on on September beans closed
today, the day we're taping thisat 10:33. Last year, was 10:22.
And in 2018, it was 08:44.
This is what you wanna protectagainst, this kind of a break to
the downside. And that's why Ibring up the hedge to arrive
(17:59):
mindset and the future side ofthe mindset in the soybeans,
even if we stay dry. You know,that way, you're leaving your
basis open. If you have tighteryields and and lower pod counts
or lower beans per pod, thatshould be reflected in your
local market. Basis is yourlocal weather play, if you will.
Todd Gleason (18:21):
John, you wanted to discuss China and the fact
that they simply have notpurchased at this point, but
you, I think, gave me a broadernumber, going back to 1995 or
'96 as it relates to totalexports of soybeans. Is that
correct first? And then how doyou see China weathering, this
(18:46):
three month, four month periodhere trying to get to February,
and the export market that wouldbe filled by Brazil?
John Zanker (18:56):
Well, what I was talking about is that new crop
sales on the books at zeroofficially. You know, could
there be some cells on thereunknown that, you know,
potentially, but most peoplethink not. So zero, for the
first time since 1999. You know,and I've been you know, Arlen
(19:19):
Suderman, I've been worriedabout this for since winter and
talking about it. I have beenheavily hedged, 100% hedged in
some fashion since winter onsoybeans.
Now just starting to wonder youknow, how much downside is left,
but, with that, what did we do,USDA dropped acreage 2,400,000,
(19:44):
that was a game changer, youknow, that changed my thought,
and I'm sure a lot of otherthoughts as well. When I saw the
53.6 yield, I thought that couldbe the smallest yield we see,
and then here we are, anotherdry August, disappointing
August, and that may be thehighest we see. Arlen commented
(20:06):
today that last year Chinashipped two fifty million beans
in SeptemberOctober. What are wegoing to do if they don't ship
hardly any? I think right now ifthey just had half of the
bushels that they have for afive year average on the books
(20:26):
for new crop, we'd have beansover $11 I think the acreage
change and the dry August has,you know, made that big of a
difference, but the reality isthey don't and they may not need
to.
They have beans, probably arecord, well they bought a bunch
of beans from Brazil June, July,August. They have a substantial
(20:48):
number of beans booked forSeptember, October, December.
They've purchased Argentine mealcargo. Ireland thinks that they
could go this year, the balanceof this year, without buying any
beans. They'd have to dip intothe reserves by quite a bit, but
if we get to January and there'sa good South American crop
(21:10):
going, we have a huge problemand the USDA is probably
150,000,000 high, and they'vealready cut 175 from this past
year, so I think the downside isstill real, we'll just we'll
just have to see how theseyields you know, we we we need
some yield results, and we canstart making some definite
(21:32):
decisions at that point.
Todd Gleason (21:33):
Mike Suzuloy, wanna come back to you because
there was something thathappened on the world stage that
I'm sure you took note of thisweek, the military parade that
she that took place in China.President Xi standing alongside
Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong un,from North Korea and a couple of
(21:55):
others as well, kind of a unitedfront. Do you suppose that
they're ready to stand againstThe United States, not
militarily, but in the trade andglobal area for influence at
this point? Has was that whatthey were trying to project
(22:17):
along with the military power ofChina?
Mike Zuzolo (22:19):
Yeah. I mean, I I think this goes in hand in hand
with the last couple years andand really the last ten or
twelve years in a in a slowmotion fashion of Russia and
China, especially working withthe BRICS to change them into
kind of the new east trading andgeopolitical alliance, Todd. And
I think that was one of the mostsure signs that this new
(22:42):
alliance is occurring, andthere's gonna be a new East and
a new West in most probability.The the only big stumbling block
that China has right now inRussia and India and and Brazil
and the s being South Korea orexcuse me, South Africa. The the
only stumbling block they haveis how much the dollar is still
(23:03):
traded in the world currencymarkets, and they're working
pretty feverishly to try andupend that.
But I think that'll take severalyears to get done. What they can
do though is a lot moretrilateral and bilateral trade
and and trade in their owncurrencies and and work with one
another, and and that justembeds them more. And this, you
(23:24):
know, brings us to 2026 and alot more questions from clients
about what about 2026 hedges?Should I start getting on those?
Because is this not going to getany better?
Well, that's been kinda put onpause because of some of the
court decisions on presidentTrump's tariffs. But I think the
2026 hedges are still very freshin my mind, in case this
situation comes back again. AndI think, you know, an $11.20 26
(23:48):
November bean price to me is apretty good place to start on
getting some hedges in placewith Brazil getting ready to
ramp up and, you know, their newthe the new cross rail cross
country railroad from Brazil tothe Shanque Port in Peru. All
these things are comingtogether.
Todd Gleason (24:07):
Yeah. Let's turn our attention to, next week's
USDA report. Crop production dueout on Friday, Logan Kimmel.
They'll have a new set ofnumbers for both corn and
soybeans. Will there be manychanges, do you think?
And this one will includeobjective yields.
Logan Kimmel (24:24):
No. I I wonder if if that yield will come down,
just based on chatter we'vehearing. Have we seen the high
watermark, there 188 on the corn53.6 on the soybeans, just based
on how August played out weatherwise. So I guess in terms of
(24:46):
this report, that might besomething to watch for. And
jumping back to the last report,I was awfully surprised or
pleased to see how the tradereacted to those numbers.
Makes me wonder if you've seenshort covering now from the spec
funds on corn three weeks in arow. Off of that 188.8 is the
(25:12):
market looking for and tradingnow a lower yield. So coming
into next week's report, thatmight be something to watch,
that might be a market mover.You might even see some
positioning ahead of that orhave been here the last few
weeks after the August 12report.
Todd Gleason (25:28):
So John, I have to ask, and this goes back to,
Mike's comment early on thatcorn's running out of time. Do
you take the next week and makedecisions about bushels that you
need to run across the scale,whether they're corn and
soybeans before this cropproduction report comes out?
John Zanker (25:47):
Well, certainly if we run I mean, we're certainly
gonna be into some corn herebefore long, and so we have to
make some decisions. And, I'mhoping, but I'm always hoping
for a run up into a report, butespecially this one, because we
we've gotta make some decisions.Some of those have been made,
(26:09):
but not enough, so we run thismarket up, let's say, certainly
15¢ into this report, and we'vegot to move some corn. We're
just gonna be flat pricing itand then and getting some
coverage on. So with the ideathat we we still have a lot of
corn to price, which I wasn'ttoo proud of not too long ago,
(26:31):
and so now maybe it's startingto look like that's gonna be
okay.
So I I think that the USDA willcome down. When I saw the $1.88
1, I said that'll be the biggestthat we see, and I've across the
Iowa corn crop, Illinois corncrop in the July, Missouri,
(26:51):
Indiana. It's the best I'veseen, and I've been doing this
for forty years. So but and I'mgoing back out, leaving on
Saturday morning to take anothertrip across to Iowa. So but it's
just one of those things.
We're not the the crop scoutswill be out for the USDA
checking fields and so on, butif you, you know, if you look at
(27:12):
the year, that's not gonna tella story. Are we gonna have
90,000 kernels due to thisdisease? Are we going to have
65, 70,000? Huge differencebetween those two levels. So, I
think we're not going to pick upall the problems in this report,
and, we're certainly gonna bevery interested in the October
report.
Todd Gleason (27:32):
Let's get a final word from each of you now. Mike
Suzlow, I think we'll begin withyou at globalcomresearch.com.
Mike Zuzolo (27:39):
Yeah. Just to pick up on the last question, Todd, I
think where my mind is is ifwe're rallying into the
September report last like lastyear and beans are helping to
support the corn, it it leads usto more of a feed the bull type
report, and that means you needgood numbers from USDA. So I
think this is a good opportunityto hedge, especially if we break
above in the corn last week'shighs. I show a gap in Dec corn
(28:02):
of around 4.32, 4.33 area. Ihope we can go chasing that gap
heading into that report.
I think off the combine sales orhedge to arrives or something
would be pretty prudent and samewith the soybeans if we can get
another 20¢ up in the Novemberbeads.
Todd Gleason (28:19):
Logan Kimmel, your final word from Roach Ag.
Logan Kimmel (28:22):
As harvest approaches, marketing can
sometimes get put on the backburner. But I think it's
important this year, especiallyto be paying attention,
utilizing opportunities. If themarket gives you those, maybe
into the next WASDE report,weigh your options. Ask ask your
merchandiser, ask your adviserwho what what are your options
(28:44):
here on storage if you're shorton on farm space? What what what
is what what is their feel onbasis?
I I think it's important to tolook at those, consider coverage
on any sales here, in flatsales, coverage out to the
spring or summer to still keep alittle upside, especially maybe
(29:04):
in the corn market. And thenjumping back, Mike made a good
point too. Would keep an eye onthe 2026, specifically on the
soybeans, just given thegeopolitical risk, meeting there
with Russia, China, the marketmight be in an area here on
(29:26):
November 2026 or in this zonethat could be an initial good
sale, for next year's beans. Ithink that might be an
opportunity this fall or winterand start for looking at, 2026
hedges as well.
Todd Gleason (29:40):
And finally, John Zanker for Spanish milk
commodities, your final word.
John Zanker (29:44):
Well, I've always liked selling premium and, you
know, I've not been one forgoing out and pricing the next
year's crop when it was at a bigdiscount to the nearby crop and
I still have a portion of thatto sell, but we need to keep a
real close eye on thedevelopments here in these new
crop beans, we're talking aboutthe 26. There's good premium
(30:07):
there between this year and nextyear. Bean acres will likely go
up, they could go up sharply.Now if corn yield comes down
sharply due to rust, are wegoing to keep some of those corn
acres with with inputs notcoming down? Think we could
still see a minimum probably offour to 5,000,000 more acres of
(30:29):
soybeans, so getting somethingon close to $11, $10.80 to $11,
I don't think that's bad.
We need to be careful aboutputting all of our eggs in one
basket. If we're to get a littlebullish corn, we'd be we we need
to be careful about not gettingtoo bullish beans at the same
time.
Todd Gleason (30:46):
Commodity Week is a production of Illinois Public
Media. You may listen to thewhole of the program anytime
you'd like at willag.org. That'swillag.0rg. Our thanks go to our
panelists this week includingMike Souslow, John Zanker, and
Logan Kimmel. I'm IllinoisExtension's Todd Gleason.
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