Can SpaceX Send People to Mars without NASA? - Elon Musk Podcast

The Starship system is a fully reusable, two‑stage‑to‑orbit super heavy‑lift launch vehicle under development by SpaceX. The system is composed of a booster stage named Super Heavy and a second stage, also called "Starship"

Episode Transcript

(00:00):
This is the Elon Musk Podcast, your daily hit of what is really
going on at Tesla, SpaceX X AI and the rest of the Musk
universe. I'm your host Will Walden, and I
have covered Elon Musk for more than five years, spent a year on
the ground at SpaceX, Starbase during early Starship
development. And before this, I spent my
career as a software developer working with billion dollar

(00:21):
companies. I've also built and sold my own
businesses, and now I make content and help other people
grow their companies. And on this show, I use that
experience to break down the news, filter out all the noise,
and give you clear context you can actually use.
Something happened the other daywhen I was on Reddit.

(00:44):
We started a discussion around SpaceX sending people on a
Starship from Earth into space. Now let's back up a little bit
here. SpaceX is in the 11th test
flight. The next test flight will be
their Block 3 Starship, which ismore powerful and bigger than
their Block two flights. Now Block 2 has had some

(01:08):
incidents. A few of the flights have, well,
let's just say blown up, had a Rudd mid flight.
And the problem with that is that when that happens, it is
not a good thing if people are aboard, right?
So we're going to be talking today about how people will be

(01:30):
flying inside of a Starship and what it actually takes, the
regulatory landscape that surrounds it.
It is wild what people can do with Space Flight now because
it's not all determined by NASA anymore or by a government body
other than let's just say the FAA.

(01:50):
And maybe there's gonna be another government body in the
future that's going to be takingpart of this.
But right now, it's just the FAAthat works on this stuff.
This is actually one of the mostfascinating regulatory gaps in
the entire space industry. And understanding it requires us
to explore how human spaceflightcertification evolved from about

(02:11):
60 years ago in why we're entering truly uncharted
territory with Starship. Now let me take you through the
landscape of how human spacecraft had been certified
historically, because what you're identifying with this
problem is a profound challenge that the industry hasn't really
solved quite yet. Thanks to our amazing community

(02:33):
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(02:53):
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(03:36):
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now would help the show tremendously.
Thank you so much. Now for the 1st 60 years of
human spaceflight. The concept of human rating
existed entirely within government agencies.
NASA developed its human rating standards through hard learned

(03:57):
lessons from Mercury, Gemini, and Apollo, and the Soviets had
their own internal processes, though less formally documented.
The Chinese space program follows similar government
internal certification, and in every case, the same
organization that operated the spacecraft also certified its
safety. Now, this created a particular

(04:19):
dynamic The certifying agency had skin in the game.
When NASA certified that the space shuttle was safe for
astronauts, NASA leadership was putting their own people at
risk. The engineers who signed off on
Crew Dragon safety knew that their colleagues, sometimes
their friends, would be riding in it.
This personal investment createda certain rigor, though, as

(04:41):
Challenger and Columbia showed us, it wasn't foolproof.
Now, the Commercial Crew programmarked the first time that NASA
certified vehicles it didn't ownor operate.
But even this wasn't truly independent certification.
SpaceX and Boeing were contractors working to NASA
specifications and requirements.When NASA deeply embedded in the

(05:02):
design process from day one, Yes, engineers had visibly
looked into every design decision, every test result,
every anomaly investigation, andthe companies couldn't just show
up with a finished spacecraft and ask for certification.
NASA was involved throughout theentire development process,
making it more of a joint effortthan independent verification.

(05:26):
Now here is where things get really interesting.
The Federal Aviation Administration.
The FAA, which regulates commercial aviation with
incredible strictness, takes a fundamentally different approach
to commercial human spaceflight.Under current law, extended
through January of 2028, the FAAis explicitly prohibited from
creating safety regulations for spacecraft occupants.

(05:50):
They can regulate launches to protect the public on the
ground. They can protect airspace, but
they cannot tell SpaceX or Blue Origin or anybody else how to
keep passengers safe. This learning period or
moratorium reflects a deliberatepolicy change by Congress.
The thinking went like this. The commercial space industry is

(06:12):
too young and evolving too rapidly for prescriptive safety
regulations. If the FAA stepped in with
requirements based on 1960s capsule designs, they might
inadvertently prevent innovations that can make Space
Flight safer and better and faster.
Better to let the industry experiment and learn, with
passengers accepting the risks through informed consent.

(06:36):
Now think about what this means in practice, though.
When Blue Origin flies paying customers on New Shepherd,
there's no government certification that the vehicle
is safe. Instead, passengers just sign a
waiver acknowledging they understand the risks.
The FAA verifies that Blue Origin has insurance that they
won't drop debris on populated areas, in that they've informed

(06:57):
passengers about these risks, but not that the vehicle meets
any strict particular safety standards for the people inside.
Virgin Galactic operates under the same framework, despite
carrying paying customers to space.
No government entity has human rated Spaceship 2 in the way.
NASA human rates vehicles. The company developed its own

(07:18):
internal safety standards, conducted its own test program,
and made its own determination that the vehicle was ready for
passengers. I think FAA licensed the flights
but didn't certify the safety ofthe occupants.
Now, the informed consent model works for tourism and private
flights, but it has crucial limitations.
NASA won't accept it for their astronauts.

(07:41):
They require full human rating certification for their
standards. No other government agency has
shown willingness to put their personnel on vehicles certified
only through informed consent ininsurance companies, while
willing to cover some risk, haven't yet figured out how to
price policies for regular commercial human spaceflight
operations. Now the model also assumes

(08:02):
passengers can meaningfully consent to risks that might not
be fully understood. And when you board a commercial
airline, decades of operational data inform the safety
statistics. When you board Starship, how do
you evaluate the risk of the belly flop maneuver when it's
never been done with humans on board?
How do you price the risk of 18,000 heat shield tiles where

(08:24):
we don't have statistical modelsfor their failure rates?
Looking internationally doesn't provide much additional
precedent. Even Russia has sold seats on
Soyuz for decades, but these flew under the Russian Space
Agency's government certification.
Tourists were essentially along for the ride and government
missions. China hasn't opened the program
to commercial participation yet.The ESA European Space Agency

(08:49):
has never developed independent human spaceflight capabilities.
The closest international parallel might be how maritime
classification societies like Lloyd's Register or DNV evolved
to certify ship safety independently of government
agencies. These organizations developed
from insurance industry needs. Insurers wanted independent

(09:10):
verification that Sips were seaworthy.
Over centuries, though, their standards became so respected,
the governments often simply require classification society
approval rather than conducting their own infections.
Now. This maritime model points
toward one possible future for spaceflight certification.

(09:32):
We're seeing early movements in this direction.
The Commercial Spaceflight Federation and industry group
has developed some voluntary standards.
ASTM International, which creates consensus standards for
everything from steel to toys, has a committee on commercial
spaceflight. But these are still voluntary
guidelines, not certification programs with real teeth and

(09:52):
grit. What would give such standards
that grit and teeth? Insurance requirements might Dr.
adoption. If insurers demanded independent
certification before covering flights, operators would have to
comply. Large corporate customers might
require certification before putting their employees on
spacecraft. And eventually, after the FAA

(10:13):
moratorium expires, regulations might reference industry
standards rather than creating government requirements from
scratch. Now this brings us back to
Starship. For NASA missions, SpaceX must
meet NASA's human rating requirements.
But for private missions, SpaceXfaces a genuine certification
vacuum. The FAA can't certify occupant

(10:34):
safety until at least 2028, and even then they'll likely take
years to develop regulations. No independent body exists with
credibility and expertise to certify something as complex as
Starship. SpaceX could sell, certify,
essentially saying we've done our homework and believe this is
safe. That's legally sufficient for

(10:55):
private flights under current regulations.
But would customers accept it? Some would.
Now, would Jared Isaac men climbaboard A Starship based solely
on Spacex's internal assessment?Probably.
In. The cancellation of Deer Moon
suggests at least some customerswant more assurance than SpaceX
can currently provide. Now the company could pursue

(11:16):
voluntary oversight, perhaps inviting independent experts to
review their safety processes, similar to how some crypto
exchanges undergo voluntary audits to build customer
confidence. They could publish their safety
analysis and test data for peer review.
They could adopt standards from aviation or other industries
where applicable. But none of this would

(11:37):
constitute true independent certification of the kind
government agencies have traditionally provided.
Now, perhaps the most likely near term development involves
the insurance industry stepping in as de facto certifiers.
If SpaceX wants to carry passengers, they'll need
liability insurance. Insurers, before writing

(11:59):
policies, will demand extensive technical reviews, test data,
and possibly design modifications.
The requirements might become the de facto safety standard for
commercial human spaceflight. And this insurance driven model
has precedent. And early aviation insurance
requirements often drove safety improvements faster than
government regulations. Insurers had direct financial

(12:21):
incentive to reduce accidents, leading them to demand pilot
training standards, maintenance procedures, and design
improvements that later became regulatory requirements.
And for Starship specifically, insurers might demand
demonstrated reliability throughhundreds of cargo flights.
Independent review of critical systems, additional redundancy

(12:43):
in certain areas, or even designchanges like adding a board
capabilities for human flights. The premiums they charge would
reflect their assessment of risk, creating market signals
about safety that might be more responsive than government
regulations. Now what we're witnessing with
Starship is the space industry grappling with a fundamental
transition from government dominated to commercially driven

(13:05):
human spaceflight. The regulatory and certification
frameworks haven't caught up with the technology.
There's no established independent board with the
expertise, authority and credibility to certify something
as revolutionary as Starship forhuman flight.
And this gap creates both opportunity and risk.
It allows SpaceX to innovate without regulatory constraints

(13:25):
that might prevent breakthrough approaches.
But it also means passengers on early flights will be pioneers
in the truest sense, test dummies accepting risks that
aren't fully quantified or independently verified.
The industry will likely evolve toward more formal certification
processes, but Starship might fly humans before those
processes exist, making its early crew participants in a

(13:50):
grand experiment in commercial space governance.
Now, the precedent that Starshipsets, whether through successful
flights or tragically, through failures, will likely shape how
this whole industry approaches human certification for decades
to come. And in that sense, SpaceX isn't
just developing a new vehicle, they're pioneering an entirely

(14:11):
new model for determining what aspacecraft is safe enough for
humans. The fact that no clear precedent
exists outside government agencies isn't just irregular
curiosity anymore. It's a fundamental challenge
that can determine whether a commercial human spaceflight
beyond tourism becomes viable. Hey, thank you so much for

(14:32):
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(14:52):
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